January 11, 2013

UP UP UPTON AND AWAY

Arizona has a problem. It has too many outfielders, which in most circumstances, is a good problem.

The Associated Press reported this morning that Diamondbacks right fielder Justin Upton vetoed a trade to the Seattle Mariners, a person with knowledge of the situation said Thursday.

Upton's contract gave him the power to turn down a trade to a short list of cities, Seattle included.

The Diamondbacks have a glut of outfielders and Upton, a former All-Star, is by far the most marketable. He is coming off a subpar season in which he was bothered by a thumb injury.

Upton's rejection of the trade first was reported by FoxSports.com, which said Seattle offered four players in the deal - relievers Charlie Furbush and Stephen Pryor, infield prospect Nick Franklin, and one of three pitching prospects; James Paxton, Danny Hultzen or Taijuan Walker.

From the Mariner's web pages:

Walker is the Mariner's #1 prospect.  The way Walker pitched in his first full season, in 2011, helped the Mariners forget they didn't have a first-round pick in 2010. The SoCal high school product was a multi-sport star and, as a result, is really focusing on pitching full time for the first time as a professional. So far, so good, as Walker was dominant in the Arizona League in 2010 and the Midwest League in ’11 and then held his own in ’12 at Double-A Jackson, where he pitched most of the season at age 19. The stuff is there, with a mid-to-high 90s fastball and excellent curve. His change-up is rapidly improving. That three-pitch mix, his size and athleticism could all add up to a front line starter in the future.

Hultzen is a lefty handed starter and the Mariners #2 prospect. While most thought Seattle would go after Anthony Rendon with the No. 2 overall pick of the 2011 Draft, the Mariners had their sights set on Hultzen all along. The University of Virginia product is the kind of college lefty expected to move quickly, but he's more than just a command/pitchability type. Hultzen's velocity increased in his junior season, giving him a plus fastball from the left side as well as a plus changeup. His slider isn't quite as good as those first two, but it's a serviceable pitch and Hultzen will work to improve it. He has indeed moved quickly through the Mariners system, pitching in the Arizona Fall League in 2011, then Double-A and Triple-A in his first full season in 2012.

Paxton is another lefty starter and ranked the Mariners #5 prospect. Paxton didn't sign with the Mariners until March 2011, but he made up for lost time quickly by double-jumping from Class A to Double-A during the season, pitching well at both levels. He followed that up with a very solid season at Double-A Jackson. Paxton's two best pitches are his fastball, a truly plus offering he can crank up into the upper 90s, and an excellent power breaking ball. The improvement he's shown with his changeup is a big reason the Mariners are even more excited about his potential as a Major League starter. He was shut down a bit early in 2011, more as a precaution than anything, and he missed the month of June in 2012 with a sore right knee, but, assuming he's healthy, seeing him in Seattle's rotation soon is not out of the question.

Franklin is the team's #3 prospect. The switch hitting shortstop has made an impression. After going 20-20 in his first full season, everyone was excited to see what Franklin would do in year No. 2 with the Mariners. But the 2011 season really never got going full-bore for the infielder because he was hit in the face with a bat during batting practice in June. He did eventually return and played well in the Arizona Fall League, named the No. 14 prospect there by MLB.com. He then hit .322 over 57 games at Double-A Jackson to start the 2012 season before being bumped up to Tacoma, where he split time evenly between shortstop and second base, perhaps signalling the beginning of his transition away from short.

Furbush is a lefty reliever that went 5-2, 2.72 ERA in 48 games for Seattle last season. Pryor was also a reliever who went 3-1, 3.91 ERA in 26 games last season.

The package from the Mariners was two good middle relievers plus two of their top 5 prospects in return for Upton.

The reason for the high cost is that Upton is just 25 years old, Upton has played five full major league seasons, so his best years could well be ahead of him. Last season he hit .280 with 17 home runs and 67 RBIs but did score a career-high 107 runs. In 2011, while helping Arizona to its surprising NL West crown, Upton hit .289, with 31 home runs and 88 RBIs, the latter two categories are career bests. Overall, he's a career .278 hitter with 108 home runs.

The younger brother of major leaguer B.J. Upton, Justin was the first overall pick in the 2005 amateur draft. He has three years and $38.5 million left on his contract, making him highly affordable by today's salary standards.

The Cubs do not have the top pitching prospects to turn a deal for a player like Upton. The Cubs list their top five prospects as Baez, Almora, B. Jackson, A. Vizcaino (who is injured) and Soler. Of those prospects, only Baez seems to be blocked by Castro. However, Baez has more upside than the other four. As for major league ready relief pitchers, only Russell would seem to fill that role for other clubs.