MLBTR reports that the Royals will retain OF Alex Gordon.
Gordon was one of the top three FA outfielders on the market. But after the pitchers signed their
big deals, the free agent market dried up in December.
So much so that Gordon is taking a contract well below what analysts had predicted he would receive in free agency.
MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan and Yahoo Sports Jeff Passan report the deal is believed to be for four years with a guarantee in the “low-$70MM range,”
Passan wrote that a deal could come together quickly between the two
sides, and it appears just that has occurred. An official announcement
could come later today, says Flanagan, assuming Gordon passes his
physical.
The preliminary figures noted above would appear to suggest that
middle ground was found between team and player. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes had
credited the veteran with earning power
in the five-year, $105MM range entering the winter, and by all
appearances there were numerous other teams with serious interest in his
services.
Teams have become conservative at this stage of the free agent market. It could be that borderline teams do not want to give up a first round draft choice AND sign a $100 million commitment to an outfielder. The White Sox were among the teams with serious interest. A four year deal is at the far end for ownership's risk level with any player, but it would seem Gordon's decision to stay in KC was to continue with a proven winning team.
For the sabermetric crowd, Gordon had the most value of the outfield FAs (Cespedes, Upton) because of his high defensive skills, something that teams like the White Sox are desperate to improve.
If Gordon's contract is in the $70 million range, that may drop the market price for Cespedes and Upton below the $100 million mark. That would mark a major turning point in the free agent market.
Showing posts with label Upton. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Upton. Show all posts
January 6, 2016
December 31, 2015
THE THREE AMIGOS
Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes and Alex Gordon have something in common. They are all outfielders and free agents in a market that seems to be moving at a glacier's pace.
The problem is valuation. What teams are willing to spend vs. a player's expectations. Skewed in the discussion was Jason Heyward's 8 year/$184 million contract (which is less because of the two opt out years). It really calculates to a 3 year/$85.5 million deal (including signing bonus) or a very high $28.5 million AAV.
Heyward, 26, had a 6.5 WAR in 2015 and was paid $7.5 million. His production value was $37.5 million last year. He was due a substantial raise.
Upton, 28, had a 4.4 WAR in 2015, and he was paid $14.5 million. His production value was $25 million last year.
Cespedes, 30, had a 6.3 WAR and was paid $10.5 million last season. His production value was $35.9 million.
Gordon, 31, had a down WAR (dropping from 6.6 to 2.8). He was paid $12.5 million last season. His production value was $15.96 million.
Age is clearly a factor. A player over the age of 30 is starting his decline (as evidenced by Gordon's last two seasons).
MLBTR estimated that Upton would receive $147 million, Cespedes $140 million and Gordon $105 million this off-season. With Heyward's deal moving the meter higher, there may be team push back at giving any of these players $25 million AAV.
Each of the free agents has issues. Upton has beenhaving a dropping batting average and inconsistent play. Cespedes has been on four teams in five years which leads some to speculate he may have clubhouse issues. Gordon is being productive more on the defensive end of the scale and GMs do not like to pay for defense alone.
Each player agent can argue that his client is good as Heyward so they should be in the $185 million contract range.
The market is further depressed because there has been no reported interest by any big market money teams (Yankees, Angels, Rangers) on any of these players. Even teams that lost out on the David Price sweepstakes, like the Cardinals, have not used that budget money on signing any of the free agent outfielders.
Which player will blink first and sign to re-set this outfield market?
The problem is valuation. What teams are willing to spend vs. a player's expectations. Skewed in the discussion was Jason Heyward's 8 year/$184 million contract (which is less because of the two opt out years). It really calculates to a 3 year/$85.5 million deal (including signing bonus) or a very high $28.5 million AAV.
Heyward, 26, had a 6.5 WAR in 2015 and was paid $7.5 million. His production value was $37.5 million last year. He was due a substantial raise.
Upton, 28, had a 4.4 WAR in 2015, and he was paid $14.5 million. His production value was $25 million last year.
Cespedes, 30, had a 6.3 WAR and was paid $10.5 million last season. His production value was $35.9 million.
Gordon, 31, had a down WAR (dropping from 6.6 to 2.8). He was paid $12.5 million last season. His production value was $15.96 million.
Age is clearly a factor. A player over the age of 30 is starting his decline (as evidenced by Gordon's last two seasons).
MLBTR estimated that Upton would receive $147 million, Cespedes $140 million and Gordon $105 million this off-season. With Heyward's deal moving the meter higher, there may be team push back at giving any of these players $25 million AAV.
Each of the free agents has issues. Upton has beenhaving a dropping batting average and inconsistent play. Cespedes has been on four teams in five years which leads some to speculate he may have clubhouse issues. Gordon is being productive more on the defensive end of the scale and GMs do not like to pay for defense alone.
Each player agent can argue that his client is good as Heyward so they should be in the $185 million contract range.
The market is further depressed because there has been no reported interest by any big market money teams (Yankees, Angels, Rangers) on any of these players. Even teams that lost out on the David Price sweepstakes, like the Cardinals, have not used that budget money on signing any of the free agent outfielders.
Which player will blink first and sign to re-set this outfield market?
November 24, 2014
SEEING RED
If there was ever a team that should go "all in" in 2015, it is the Cincinnati Reds.
Yes, the Cardinals have been the dominant team in the NL Central, and the Pirates have risen from the bottom to be a contender, but the Reds have one last chance with the current core roster to make a charge.
Many rumors are spreading around the Reds trading off pieces. But some would question why.
Yes, 4/5ths of the current rotation (Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake, Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon) are all free agents following the 2015 season. That is the reason why the Reds should go all out to win in 2015. It will be nearly impossible to rebuild that rotation quickly in today's baseball economics.
In 2014, the Reds finished 76-86, 14 GB in the standings.
The team just needs to tweak the bullpen, shore up the outfield with some power and hope the injury bug does not bite them hard.
The Braves are very much shopping Justin Upton but they are requesting a higher return than they received earlier this week when they dealt their other corner outfielder, Jason Heyward.
In exchange for Heyward and reliever Jordan Walden, Atlanta received from St. Louis a pretty good starter with four years of control in Shelby Miller plus pitching prospect Tyrell Jenkins.
Like Heyward, Upton can be a free agent after this season and is due $14.5 million in 2015 compared to the $8.3 million that Heyward will earn. Nevertheless, the Braves think Upton has greater value in the trade market because his overall offense — particularly his power — is superior. Upton hit 29 homers and Heyward 11. And Upton brings righty power, which is in particularly short demand.
This would one of those "all in" one year or bust deals if the Reds took a flyer on Upton. It would send a strong message: win now, or go home. Actually, that should be every team's message every spring.
Yes, the Cardinals have been the dominant team in the NL Central, and the Pirates have risen from the bottom to be a contender, but the Reds have one last chance with the current core roster to make a charge.
Many rumors are spreading around the Reds trading off pieces. But some would question why.
Yes, 4/5ths of the current rotation (Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake, Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon) are all free agents following the 2015 season. That is the reason why the Reds should go all out to win in 2015. It will be nearly impossible to rebuild that rotation quickly in today's baseball economics.
In 2014, the Reds finished 76-86, 14 GB in the standings.
The team just needs to tweak the bullpen, shore up the outfield with some power and hope the injury bug does not bite them hard.
The Braves are very much shopping Justin Upton but they are requesting a higher return than they received earlier this week when they dealt their other corner outfielder, Jason Heyward.
In exchange for Heyward and reliever Jordan Walden, Atlanta received from St. Louis a pretty good starter with four years of control in Shelby Miller plus pitching prospect Tyrell Jenkins.
Like Heyward, Upton can be a free agent after this season and is due $14.5 million in 2015 compared to the $8.3 million that Heyward will earn. Nevertheless, the Braves think Upton has greater value in the trade market because his overall offense — particularly his power — is superior. Upton hit 29 homers and Heyward 11. And Upton brings righty power, which is in particularly short demand.
This would one of those "all in" one year or bust deals if the Reds took a flyer on Upton. It would send a strong message: win now, or go home. Actually, that should be every team's message every spring.
August 27, 2014
ANOTHER ERROR
If this is true, then the front office needs to be fired.
According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Cubs rejected a trade offer that would have sent right-hander Edwin Jackson to the Braves for outfielder B.J. Upton. They were teammates while with the Rays a few years ago. The two sides discussed the deal before the trade deadline in July.
A Jackson-for-Upton swap would be the epitome of a bad contract-for-bad contract deal. Jackson is owed approximately $24 million through the 2016 season while Upton has roughly $49 million left on his deal, which runs through 2017. Nightengale says Atlanta would have had to kick in quite a bit of money to facilitate a trade.
Jackson, 30, is 6-14 with a 6.09 ERA in 26 starts and 139 innings for the Cubs this year. He is 14-32 with a 5.47 ERA since signing a four-year, $52 million contract prior to last season. Jackson was just placed on the disabled list with a lat strain and there's been talk of moving him to the bullpen.
The 30-year-old Upton is hitting .208/.282/.329 (71 OPS+) with nine home runs and 18 stolen bases this year, which is better than the .184/.268/.289 (54 OPS+) line he put up last season. The Braves gave Upton a five-year, $72.25 million contract prior to 2013.
Apologists for the Cubs not pulling the trigger on the deal state that since the Cubs, who have a ton of position player prospects on the way, the team don't need someone like Upton clogging up payroll and a lineup spot. However, this is clearly not the case. The Cubs have no legitimate starting outfielder on the roster; Upton would have been their best OF player this season. The Cubs have a second baseman patrolling center field for the first time in his professional career. And if Upton does bounce back with a change of scenery, let the rookies "earn" a starting spot.
In my opinion, it is much easier to get a veteran hitter back on track than a pitcher that plain sucks. The Cubs regularly play players hitting under the Mendoza line so having Upton on the roster would not have been unusual. And if did not perform well, sit him on the pines like Schierholtz.
It is not that Jackson helped his cause by being an innings eater. He only averaged 5.3 IP/start. He led the majors in earned runs allowed. And he was brutal in the first two innings, leaving the Cubs well behind in games he started. Jackson amassed an unbelievably bad NEGATIVE 1.9 WAR this season.
If some other team wanted him, you trade him faster than lightning. Period.
But the Cubs failed to do so. A major error by the front office because there was no reason to keep him.
According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Cubs rejected a trade offer that would have sent right-hander Edwin Jackson to the Braves for outfielder B.J. Upton. They were teammates while with the Rays a few years ago. The two sides discussed the deal before the trade deadline in July.
A Jackson-for-Upton swap would be the epitome of a bad contract-for-bad contract deal. Jackson is owed approximately $24 million through the 2016 season while Upton has roughly $49 million left on his deal, which runs through 2017. Nightengale says Atlanta would have had to kick in quite a bit of money to facilitate a trade.
Jackson, 30, is 6-14 with a 6.09 ERA in 26 starts and 139 innings for the Cubs this year. He is 14-32 with a 5.47 ERA since signing a four-year, $52 million contract prior to last season. Jackson was just placed on the disabled list with a lat strain and there's been talk of moving him to the bullpen.
The 30-year-old Upton is hitting .208/.282/.329 (71 OPS+) with nine home runs and 18 stolen bases this year, which is better than the .184/.268/.289 (54 OPS+) line he put up last season. The Braves gave Upton a five-year, $72.25 million contract prior to 2013.
Apologists for the Cubs not pulling the trigger on the deal state that since the Cubs, who have a ton of position player prospects on the way, the team don't need someone like Upton clogging up payroll and a lineup spot. However, this is clearly not the case. The Cubs have no legitimate starting outfielder on the roster; Upton would have been their best OF player this season. The Cubs have a second baseman patrolling center field for the first time in his professional career. And if Upton does bounce back with a change of scenery, let the rookies "earn" a starting spot.
In my opinion, it is much easier to get a veteran hitter back on track than a pitcher that plain sucks. The Cubs regularly play players hitting under the Mendoza line so having Upton on the roster would not have been unusual. And if did not perform well, sit him on the pines like Schierholtz.
It is not that Jackson helped his cause by being an innings eater. He only averaged 5.3 IP/start. He led the majors in earned runs allowed. And he was brutal in the first two innings, leaving the Cubs well behind in games he started. Jackson amassed an unbelievably bad NEGATIVE 1.9 WAR this season.
If some other team wanted him, you trade him faster than lightning. Period.
But the Cubs failed to do so. A major error by the front office because there was no reason to keep him.
January 11, 2013
UP UP UPTON AND AWAY
Arizona has a problem. It has too many outfielders, which in most circumstances, is a good problem.
The Associated Press reported this morning that Diamondbacks right fielder Justin Upton vetoed a trade to the Seattle Mariners, a person with knowledge of the situation said Thursday.
Upton's contract gave him the power to turn down a trade to a short list of cities, Seattle included.
The Diamondbacks have a glut of outfielders and Upton, a former All-Star, is by far the most marketable. He is coming off a subpar season in which he was bothered by a thumb injury.
Upton's rejection of the trade first was reported by FoxSports.com, which said Seattle offered four players in the deal - relievers Charlie Furbush and Stephen Pryor, infield prospect Nick Franklin, and one of three pitching prospects; James Paxton, Danny Hultzen or Taijuan Walker.
From the Mariner's web pages:
Walker is the Mariner's #1 prospect. The way Walker pitched in his first full season, in 2011, helped the Mariners forget they didn't have a first-round pick in 2010. The SoCal high school product was a multi-sport star and, as a result, is really focusing on pitching full time for the first time as a professional. So far, so good, as Walker was dominant in the Arizona League in 2010 and the Midwest League in ’11 and then held his own in ’12 at Double-A Jackson, where he pitched most of the season at age 19. The stuff is there, with a mid-to-high 90s fastball and excellent curve. His change-up is rapidly improving. That three-pitch mix, his size and athleticism could all add up to a front line starter in the future.
Hultzen is a lefty handed starter and the Mariners #2 prospect. While most thought Seattle would go after Anthony Rendon with the No. 2 overall pick of the 2011 Draft, the Mariners had their sights set on Hultzen all along. The University of Virginia product is the kind of college lefty expected to move quickly, but he's more than just a command/pitchability type. Hultzen's velocity increased in his junior season, giving him a plus fastball from the left side as well as a plus changeup. His slider isn't quite as good as those first two, but it's a serviceable pitch and Hultzen will work to improve it. He has indeed moved quickly through the Mariners system, pitching in the Arizona Fall League in 2011, then Double-A and Triple-A in his first full season in 2012.
Paxton is another lefty starter and ranked the Mariners #5 prospect. Paxton didn't sign with the Mariners until March 2011, but he made up for lost time quickly by double-jumping from Class A to Double-A during the season, pitching well at both levels. He followed that up with a very solid season at Double-A Jackson. Paxton's two best pitches are his fastball, a truly plus offering he can crank up into the upper 90s, and an excellent power breaking ball. The improvement he's shown with his changeup is a big reason the Mariners are even more excited about his potential as a Major League starter. He was shut down a bit early in 2011, more as a precaution than anything, and he missed the month of June in 2012 with a sore right knee, but, assuming he's healthy, seeing him in Seattle's rotation soon is not out of the question.
Franklin is the team's #3 prospect. The switch hitting shortstop has made an impression. After going 20-20 in his first full season, everyone was excited to see what Franklin would do in year No. 2 with the Mariners. But the 2011 season really never got going full-bore for the infielder because he was hit in the face with a bat during batting practice in June. He did eventually return and played well in the Arizona Fall League, named the No. 14 prospect there by MLB.com. He then hit .322 over 57 games at Double-A Jackson to start the 2012 season before being bumped up to Tacoma, where he split time evenly between shortstop and second base, perhaps signalling the beginning of his transition away from short.
Furbush is a lefty reliever that went 5-2, 2.72 ERA in 48 games for Seattle last season. Pryor was also a reliever who went 3-1, 3.91 ERA in 26 games last season.
The package from the Mariners was two good middle relievers plus two of their top 5 prospects in return for Upton.
The reason for the high cost is that Upton is just 25 years old, Upton has played five full major league seasons, so his best years could well be ahead of him. Last season he hit .280 with 17 home runs and 67 RBIs but did score a career-high 107 runs. In 2011, while helping Arizona to its surprising NL West crown, Upton hit .289, with 31 home runs and 88 RBIs, the latter two categories are career bests. Overall, he's a career .278 hitter with 108 home runs.
The younger brother of major leaguer B.J. Upton, Justin was the first overall pick in the 2005 amateur draft. He has three years and $38.5 million left on his contract, making him highly affordable by today's salary standards.
The Cubs do not have the top pitching prospects to turn a deal for a player like Upton. The Cubs list their top five prospects as Baez, Almora, B. Jackson, A. Vizcaino (who is injured) and Soler. Of those prospects, only Baez seems to be blocked by Castro. However, Baez has more upside than the other four. As for major league ready relief pitchers, only Russell would seem to fill that role for other clubs.
The Associated Press reported this morning that Diamondbacks right fielder Justin Upton vetoed a trade to the Seattle Mariners, a person with knowledge of the situation said Thursday.
Upton's contract gave him the power to turn down a trade to a short list of cities, Seattle included.
The Diamondbacks have a glut of outfielders and Upton, a former All-Star, is by far the most marketable. He is coming off a subpar season in which he was bothered by a thumb injury.
Upton's rejection of the trade first was reported by FoxSports.com, which said Seattle offered four players in the deal - relievers Charlie Furbush and Stephen Pryor, infield prospect Nick Franklin, and one of three pitching prospects; James Paxton, Danny Hultzen or Taijuan Walker.
From the Mariner's web pages:
Walker is the Mariner's #1 prospect. The way Walker pitched in his first full season, in 2011, helped the Mariners forget they didn't have a first-round pick in 2010. The SoCal high school product was a multi-sport star and, as a result, is really focusing on pitching full time for the first time as a professional. So far, so good, as Walker was dominant in the Arizona League in 2010 and the Midwest League in ’11 and then held his own in ’12 at Double-A Jackson, where he pitched most of the season at age 19. The stuff is there, with a mid-to-high 90s fastball and excellent curve. His change-up is rapidly improving. That three-pitch mix, his size and athleticism could all add up to a front line starter in the future.
Hultzen is a lefty handed starter and the Mariners #2 prospect. While most thought Seattle would go after Anthony Rendon with the No. 2 overall pick of the 2011 Draft, the Mariners had their sights set on Hultzen all along. The University of Virginia product is the kind of college lefty expected to move quickly, but he's more than just a command/pitchability type. Hultzen's velocity increased in his junior season, giving him a plus fastball from the left side as well as a plus changeup. His slider isn't quite as good as those first two, but it's a serviceable pitch and Hultzen will work to improve it. He has indeed moved quickly through the Mariners system, pitching in the Arizona Fall League in 2011, then Double-A and Triple-A in his first full season in 2012.
Paxton is another lefty starter and ranked the Mariners #5 prospect. Paxton didn't sign with the Mariners until March 2011, but he made up for lost time quickly by double-jumping from Class A to Double-A during the season, pitching well at both levels. He followed that up with a very solid season at Double-A Jackson. Paxton's two best pitches are his fastball, a truly plus offering he can crank up into the upper 90s, and an excellent power breaking ball. The improvement he's shown with his changeup is a big reason the Mariners are even more excited about his potential as a Major League starter. He was shut down a bit early in 2011, more as a precaution than anything, and he missed the month of June in 2012 with a sore right knee, but, assuming he's healthy, seeing him in Seattle's rotation soon is not out of the question.
Franklin is the team's #3 prospect. The switch hitting shortstop has made an impression. After going 20-20 in his first full season, everyone was excited to see what Franklin would do in year No. 2 with the Mariners. But the 2011 season really never got going full-bore for the infielder because he was hit in the face with a bat during batting practice in June. He did eventually return and played well in the Arizona Fall League, named the No. 14 prospect there by MLB.com. He then hit .322 over 57 games at Double-A Jackson to start the 2012 season before being bumped up to Tacoma, where he split time evenly between shortstop and second base, perhaps signalling the beginning of his transition away from short.
Furbush is a lefty reliever that went 5-2, 2.72 ERA in 48 games for Seattle last season. Pryor was also a reliever who went 3-1, 3.91 ERA in 26 games last season.
The package from the Mariners was two good middle relievers plus two of their top 5 prospects in return for Upton.
The reason for the high cost is that Upton is just 25 years old, Upton has played five full major league seasons, so his best years could well be ahead of him. Last season he hit .280 with 17 home runs and 67 RBIs but did score a career-high 107 runs. In 2011, while helping Arizona to its surprising NL West crown, Upton hit .289, with 31 home runs and 88 RBIs, the latter two categories are career bests. Overall, he's a career .278 hitter with 108 home runs.
The younger brother of major leaguer B.J. Upton, Justin was the first overall pick in the 2005 amateur draft. He has three years and $38.5 million left on his contract, making him highly affordable by today's salary standards.
The Cubs do not have the top pitching prospects to turn a deal for a player like Upton. The Cubs list their top five prospects as Baez, Almora, B. Jackson, A. Vizcaino (who is injured) and Soler. Of those prospects, only Baez seems to be blocked by Castro. However, Baez has more upside than the other four. As for major league ready relief pitchers, only Russell would seem to fill that role for other clubs.
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