Spring training is less than a month away.
Most teams are pretty set now on their rosters.
You are what you are, so to speak.
Now, the projection software, stats guys and pundits have crunched their variables to begin the guessing game: how many wins for the Cubs in 2013.
The consensus range is surprising: 72 to 85 wins. That would be an improvement of 18 to 39 percent.
How can that be realistic?
The off season focus has been on improving the pitching staff. A player to player gut check is in order.
1. Ryan Dempster replaced by free agent Scott Baker, who is coming off major surgery. Baker will not be ready by Opening Day, and may not pitch until May. Dempster had a great first half of 2012, but got no run or bullpen support. There is no realistic chance that Baker will be better than Dempster. However, to hedge against total Baker failure, the Cubs signed Edwin Jackson. Jackson is an innings eater, but highly inconsistent from outing to outing. He projects as a similar hit-or-miss guy like Baker. Combined, it is still doubtful they can garner the same quality starts and innings of 2012 Dempster.
2. Old Garza vs. Rehabbed Garza. The Old Garza was fairly average for the Cubs. The Rehabbed Garza may not be ready until May. Pitchers coming off injuries tend to have mechanic issues, brought on by the psychology of "not" hurting their arm upon their return. At best, Garza will be the same as 2012.
3. Samardzija vs. Sophomore Starter Samardzija. The training wheels (limited innings) will be off for Smardzilla in 2013. One would expect that with experience, Samardzija will continue to improve, but batters will have a complete scouting report on him now - - - one would think that he would still be slightly better than last season.
4. Scott Feldman has replaced Chris Volstad. Volstad was horrible. Feldman fell out of favor in pitching rich Texas to bullpen-long relief role. Whether Feldman can rebound to his very good form of several years ago is a real question mark. But it is hard to imagine that Feldman will be as bad as Volstad. This fifth starter spot seems to be improved.
5. Travis Wood replaces Paul Maholm as the lefty starter in the rotation. Maholm was really the most consistent and steady pitcher the Cubs staff had last season. Wood started off in the minors, but was recalled to provide some depth after the trades and injuries. Based on last year's performance, Wood will probably not match Maholm's production.
So if you look at the rotation comparisons, it would seem that two pitchers will be worse, one slightly better, one better and one the same. Formula: -2.0 + 0.5 +1.0 + 0.0 = -0.5.
So the rotation appears to be the same to slightly worse as a collective whole.
The bullpen is hard to gauge at this stage. Last year was a merry-go-round circle of bad AAA pitchers and injured journeymen trying comebacks.
You have the returning core of Marmol, J. Russell, and Camp.
You have new arms in Villanueva (who will probably spot start), Fujikawa, and Rondon (who is basically the same AA gamble as Lendy Castillo who failed last year).
So anyone else to fill out the pen will be AAA-AAAA type of thrower.
The only thing the Cubs may think they have is extra MLB experienced back up starters in T. Wood, Villanueva and Feldman. But are they really that good, especially when the position players are basically the same core and cast-off utility players?
The bottom line is that the Cubs are still basically the same team as last season. The changes in players are merely cosmetic and not long term solutions to becoming competitive now. The Cubs project in my mind to another 100 loss team.
