Jim Bowden writes a baseball column for ESPN. He comes from the perspective of being a former front office guy.
He wrote this week that the Cubs minor league system has been raising eyebrows in the past year. The organization jumped ten spots to sixth in the latest ESPN baseball prospect rankings.
Many scouts have been impressed by the batting shown by Javier Baez, Junior Lake and Jorge Soler. However, Bowden stated that:
all three have some “hit” tool issues. Odds are one of them never pans
out and follows Corey Patterson and Felix Pie
as Cubs prospects who failed to live up to the fans’ often unrealistic
expectations.
However, Bowden praises one Cub prospect as "a slam dunk: center fielder Albert Almora. He was the Cubs’
first-round selection in last year’s draft and Bowden believes looks like a future
All-Star.
Yes, there is a logical inconsistency in Bowden's statements regarding the young players. All prospects have a learning curve in order to improve their skills. It is highly unusual that a drafted player begins his professional career on a major league roster. That is why training and development is so critical in a baseball organization. Having the right teachers and right philosophy will create a steady stream of quality players (i.e. the Dodgers organization).
Baez, Lake, Soler and Almora are early in the careers. Almora has the least amount of pro experience so it is hard to judge that he will be better than the other three. Only Lake has a chance to reach AAA this year. His promotion may be more need based as the Cubs are devoid of third basemen at the higher levels.
I think the team's front office has higher expectations of Baez, Lake and Soler than the average Cub fan. Since so many scouts have positive reviews of the Cub prospects so far, it is unfair to make Patterson and Pie comparisons. (The opposite is true on another Cubs' vaulted prospect, Cuban pitcher Concepcion, whom many scouts ripped last season as a poor prospect in rookie-A ball). And some observers will question why with all the emphasis on pitching in the last draft, no pitcher has been labeled by other team scouts as a can't miss prospect.
Baseball player development is a hit and miss crap game. On average, one of ten prospects reach the majors. Maybe one in twenty become quality starters (2.5 + WAR). That means the Cubs have really a chance to have four players in their minor league system contribute to the major league roster in time. Apparently, the consensus is that those four are Baez, Lake, Soler and Almora.
