It was only a matter of time when the Truth would leak out about the Cubs disappointing post-championship seasons. Javy Baez recently ran out into the media highway to drop a few bombs on himself and his teammates.
The Associated Press reported that Baez said the Cubs
were lacking last year when it came to their pregame routines and work
ethic. “We had a lot of optional things, not mandatory, and
everyone kind of sat back on that — including me. I wasn’t really going
out there and preparing for the game. I was getting ready during the
game, which is not good,” Baez said. “But this year, I think before the
games, everybody should be out there as a team, stretch as a team, be
together as a team so we can play together.”
Cubs President of
Baseball Operations Theo Epstein said last week he could think of only
two times in 18 years of running major league clubs that he felt “basic
organizational standards for work, preparation and behavior” were not
being met. (One can easily say that was a shot at Joe Maddon's management style, being a "player's manager.")
New
skipper David Ross said at the end of the day, from a manager's
standpoint, coaches try to get players prepared and put them in the best
possible situation to succeed, but baseball has “always been about the
players.”
“So for (Báez) to say that, and saying the group feels
they can turn it up a notch, I mean, that’s a powerful message they are
sending,” Ross said. “This is never about the manager. It never should
be about the manager. When you're in that locker room, the players are
the ones affecting the outcome.”
(Ross is defending Maddon because he is right: players have to take the responsibility themselves to prepare for games.)
If the lack of preparation was a problem, then the front office is also to blame. The baseball executives have spent millions on new analytical labs, new coaches and trainers to tell players how to hit and pitch. Theo hired and fired three batting coaches in three years. We suspect that after a while, the players just tuned out everyone.
Dusty Baker, also a players' manager, often said that he left his players alone in their game preparation. He often cited that the players are "professionals" and professionals know how to act. He was relying on his own experience as a player (in a vastly different time.)
Ozzie Guillen was a vocal leader. But he continually stressed the fundamentals and principles of the game. Before the first game of every series, he scheduled mandatory fielding drills for all his players.
Theo wanted performance over potential in 2019. He did not get it because his players did not get the message. The reason is simple. The lack of any farm system talent and budget constraints means that there is no new players pushing the existing core to play their best. There is no real competition for starting position roster spots. There is a lack of urgency and drive if you know that there is no one on the team ready, willing and able to take your job.
The Cubs organization is in a total mess. Ross brings back the championship cred, but it may not translate to a strict manager berating his friends and former teammates to tow the line. How will he change a culture that has had the players merely going through the motions? It is not that Ross can sit players for not trying hard because he has to win now.
Showing posts with label Baez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Baez. Show all posts
February 17, 2020
July 5, 2017
MIDSEASON CHIPS
The Cubs entire infield started the 2016 All-Star game. This year, no one will.
Wade Davis is the sole Cub representative. Kris Bryant may get a bench slot if he is voted in by the fans.
The Cubs are stumbling to the break with a .500 at best record. Totally disappointing. Totally frustrating. Totally unexpected.
Who would have thought that the best Chicago player this season would be Avi Garcia? The White Sox outfielder has blossomed to a .318 BA, 11 HR, 51 RBI, .362 OBP and 2.9 WAR so far this year.
The Cubs are in an odd position, 3.5 games behind the Brewers. Milwaukee is supposed to crumble with the lack of starting pitching and a young team. But the Brew Crew continues to chug along in first place.
Which makes the Cubs decisions harder to make by the trade deadline. Are the Cubs buyers? Sellers? Or will they just stand pat and ride out the season?
It would seem the latter may happen by default.
No team will give up front line starting pitcher(s) without a King's ransom. And the Cubs better trading chips (like Schwarber) have struggled all season.
Look at a position comparison:
Is Russell a better shortstop than Baez? Russell may have slightly better range, but Baez has a better arm. Russell has regressed this season; some say it is his bum shoulder. That makes Baez almost untradeable since he can play three defensive positions.
Is Zobrist a better 2B/OF than Happ? Zobrist was the first Super Sub when Maddon was the Tampa skipper. Zobrist had a massive WAR because of his defensive skill sets. But Zobrist has struggled this season at the plate and with a wrist injury. Happ got called up early because of the offensive stuggles. He has provided some HR potential while he learns to play the outfield on the fly. Since Happ has upside, he suddenly becomes an untradeable asset because of his versatility.
Would any other team take Russell and/or Zobrist in a trade? Perhaps if a contending team had a key starter get hurt. But they will not be willing to pay top dollar for either one.
So the Cubs are stuck with many veteran chips in a depressed market. If there are moves to make, it may be for the shot-in-the-dark AAAA player to shore up the rotation as a spot starter.
Wade Davis is the sole Cub representative. Kris Bryant may get a bench slot if he is voted in by the fans.
The Cubs are stumbling to the break with a .500 at best record. Totally disappointing. Totally frustrating. Totally unexpected.
Who would have thought that the best Chicago player this season would be Avi Garcia? The White Sox outfielder has blossomed to a .318 BA, 11 HR, 51 RBI, .362 OBP and 2.9 WAR so far this year.
The Cubs are in an odd position, 3.5 games behind the Brewers. Milwaukee is supposed to crumble with the lack of starting pitching and a young team. But the Brew Crew continues to chug along in first place.
Which makes the Cubs decisions harder to make by the trade deadline. Are the Cubs buyers? Sellers? Or will they just stand pat and ride out the season?
It would seem the latter may happen by default.
No team will give up front line starting pitcher(s) without a King's ransom. And the Cubs better trading chips (like Schwarber) have struggled all season.
Look at a position comparison:
Is Russell a better shortstop than Baez? Russell may have slightly better range, but Baez has a better arm. Russell has regressed this season; some say it is his bum shoulder. That makes Baez almost untradeable since he can play three defensive positions.
Is Zobrist a better 2B/OF than Happ? Zobrist was the first Super Sub when Maddon was the Tampa skipper. Zobrist had a massive WAR because of his defensive skill sets. But Zobrist has struggled this season at the plate and with a wrist injury. Happ got called up early because of the offensive stuggles. He has provided some HR potential while he learns to play the outfield on the fly. Since Happ has upside, he suddenly becomes an untradeable asset because of his versatility.
Would any other team take Russell and/or Zobrist in a trade? Perhaps if a contending team had a key starter get hurt. But they will not be willing to pay top dollar for either one.
So the Cubs are stuck with many veteran chips in a depressed market. If there are moves to make, it may be for the shot-in-the-dark AAAA player to shore up the rotation as a spot starter.
April 5, 2017
DEFENSE WINS GAMES
For those who doubt that defense wins games, last nights Cubs-Cardinals game should make them believers.
Albert Almora leaped over the center field wall to rob Matt Adams of a home run and Javier Baez made a difficult sliding stop on Kolten Wong's game-ending grounder, giving the Cubs to a 2-1 victory against the St. Louis Cardinals on Tuesday night.
Jake Arrieta was very good in his opener. He pitched 6 strong innings, striking out 6 and yielding only one unearned run (on a Baez error).
Heyward is a gold glove caliber right fielder. Last season he had 18 defensive runs saved when he played the outfield. That is an outstanding defensive metric.
But the kids are on pace to surpass his defensive milestones.
In just 41 games played in 2016, Almora had 3 defensive runs saved. For a full season, that would equate to around 11 defensive runs saved.
But the wizard of the glove has to be Baez. In part time work last season, Baez had an amazing 11 defensive runs saved when he played second base (in only 59 games)! He had 18 defensive runs saved in total.
So in 2016, just three Cubs amassed 39 runs saved by playing solid defense.The Cubs lead the National League with the fewest runs scored at 556. Based on this metric, he three Cubs bring a 7 percent decrease in an opponent scoring a run. In a close, one-run ball game, defense is the key to victory.
Like last night's contest. If Almora and Baez to not make those clutch plays, the Cardinals win 3-2.
From a purists' standpoint, it is really nice to see the leather being thrown around the field.
Albert Almora leaped over the center field wall to rob Matt Adams of a home run and Javier Baez made a difficult sliding stop on Kolten Wong's game-ending grounder, giving the Cubs to a 2-1 victory against the St. Louis Cardinals on Tuesday night.
Jake Arrieta was very good in his opener. He pitched 6 strong innings, striking out 6 and yielding only one unearned run (on a Baez error).
Heyward is a gold glove caliber right fielder. Last season he had 18 defensive runs saved when he played the outfield. That is an outstanding defensive metric.
But the kids are on pace to surpass his defensive milestones.
In just 41 games played in 2016, Almora had 3 defensive runs saved. For a full season, that would equate to around 11 defensive runs saved.
But the wizard of the glove has to be Baez. In part time work last season, Baez had an amazing 11 defensive runs saved when he played second base (in only 59 games)! He had 18 defensive runs saved in total.
So in 2016, just three Cubs amassed 39 runs saved by playing solid defense.The Cubs lead the National League with the fewest runs scored at 556. Based on this metric, he three Cubs bring a 7 percent decrease in an opponent scoring a run. In a close, one-run ball game, defense is the key to victory.
Like last night's contest. If Almora and Baez to not make those clutch plays, the Cardinals win 3-2.
From a purists' standpoint, it is really nice to see the leather being thrown around the field.
January 19, 2017
THE BAEZ QUESTION
Bruce Levine was on Chicago radio this week discussing the Cubs situation with Javy Baez.
The scope of the discussion centered around the Cubs need to acquire young, controllable starting pitchers. The Cubs will have a real problem at the end of the season if Lackey retires and Arrieta goes to free agency (both expected to do so.)
The Cubs have many trade chips to get a young starter, but management is cautious about trading any of "their guys."
The roster squeeze problem is Javy Baez. He believes that he deserves to be a full time player. He has great defensive skills at all three infield positions with 62 defensive runs saved over average fielders.
Baez also excelled at the plate, hitting a respectable .273, 14 HR, 59 RBI, 12 SB in 450 PA.
The blocks of Baez being a full time starter is the Cubs favoritism towards Kyle Schwarber, who has been labeled "untradable" by the front office, and WS MVP Ben Zobrist, who is also a super-sub.
Schwarber appears to be penciled in as the regular left fielder (despite his injury history). That means that Zobrist will have to play second base as Addison Russell is the starting shortstop and league MVP Kris Bryant is locked in at third. This assumes that Justin Heyward can correct his swing to be a productive offensive player in right field.
The only way Baez plays full time in the field is there is a misfortune to some other player.
Levine stated that the Cubs feel Baez is too valuable to trade because if the third baseman, shortstop or second baseman gets hurt, Baez can step in and the Cubs don't lose any potential production.
Normally, if a young player is blocked by a veteran under contract, other teams will make solid offers to acquire him. In the speculative trade market, the Cubs could trade Baez straight up for White Sox starter Jose Quintana, a young starter with four years of contract control.
The clubhouse issue will be whether Joe Maddon can get Baez enough playing time to keep sharp during the season. It would seem that at best, Baez could get three starts a week while Maddon rests Bryant, Russell and Zobrist. But that would only occur later in the season. And whether Baez is mentally tough enough to accept a super-bench role on the club, especially if other players are struggling at the plate (Heyward) or in the field (Schwarber).
For some, this is a good problem to have; too many good players on the roster competing for playing time. But the question will remain throughout spring training: is Baez more valuable to trade or stay?
The scope of the discussion centered around the Cubs need to acquire young, controllable starting pitchers. The Cubs will have a real problem at the end of the season if Lackey retires and Arrieta goes to free agency (both expected to do so.)
The Cubs have many trade chips to get a young starter, but management is cautious about trading any of "their guys."
The roster squeeze problem is Javy Baez. He believes that he deserves to be a full time player. He has great defensive skills at all three infield positions with 62 defensive runs saved over average fielders.
Baez also excelled at the plate, hitting a respectable .273, 14 HR, 59 RBI, 12 SB in 450 PA.
The blocks of Baez being a full time starter is the Cubs favoritism towards Kyle Schwarber, who has been labeled "untradable" by the front office, and WS MVP Ben Zobrist, who is also a super-sub.
Schwarber appears to be penciled in as the regular left fielder (despite his injury history). That means that Zobrist will have to play second base as Addison Russell is the starting shortstop and league MVP Kris Bryant is locked in at third. This assumes that Justin Heyward can correct his swing to be a productive offensive player in right field.
The only way Baez plays full time in the field is there is a misfortune to some other player.
Levine stated that the Cubs feel Baez is too valuable to trade because if the third baseman, shortstop or second baseman gets hurt, Baez can step in and the Cubs don't lose any potential production.
Normally, if a young player is blocked by a veteran under contract, other teams will make solid offers to acquire him. In the speculative trade market, the Cubs could trade Baez straight up for White Sox starter Jose Quintana, a young starter with four years of contract control.
The clubhouse issue will be whether Joe Maddon can get Baez enough playing time to keep sharp during the season. It would seem that at best, Baez could get three starts a week while Maddon rests Bryant, Russell and Zobrist. But that would only occur later in the season. And whether Baez is mentally tough enough to accept a super-bench role on the club, especially if other players are struggling at the plate (Heyward) or in the field (Schwarber).
For some, this is a good problem to have; too many good players on the roster competing for playing time. But the question will remain throughout spring training: is Baez more valuable to trade or stay?
March 4, 2016
BAEZ IN CENTER
Championship caliber teams pitch well and play above average to great defense. Most pitchers will tell you a solid defense behind them clips off a half a run off their ERA.
The modern game has de-emphasized defense because it is hard to statistically quantify defense metrics. Instead, the trend is to mirror the video game world of big bats and big power pitchers. And playing players in multiple positions so a manager has line-up flexibility (and a shorter bench since the bullpens have been growing in number and prominence.)
Javy Baez made his spring debut in center field. It was an odd choice considering the Cubs just signed Dexter Fowler to be the regular CF with Justin Heyward as the back-up from his RF position.
ESPNChicago noted Baez's CF debut was less than stellar:
Baez was tested immediately in center field where he's trying to learn a new position. The first three Milwaukee hitters hit the ball to him starting with Jonathan Villar's triple off the wall. Baez got turned around several times and should have played it off the wall to keep Villar to a double. Then he threw offline on a sacrifice fly before taking a bad route on the next fly ball which popped in and out of his glove.
"I haven't missed one ball all spring training," Baez said afterwards. "Good thing it happens now and not later."
Baez statement is true in one extent: it is better to get the butterflies and fielding issues worked on during spring training. But putting even an athletic player into CF cold is very difficult. Jimmy Piersall said that playing CF is the hardest outfield position because you cannot see the angle of the ball immediately off the bat. In the corner outfields, you can quickly gauge the depth and angle of the hit ball. But in center, your perception is straight on. That is why good fielder will know what the pitcher is going to throw and shade himself toward the potential contact field. In addition to tracking the balls, a center fielder has to cover more ground. Speed and arm accuracy are critical tools for a center fielder who needs to anticipate the hitter and runners and where to hit the cut-off man.
Baez has no game experience playing CF. It will be a baptism by trial and error. But it may be a case of diminishing returns. He is slated to be the super-sub infielder for Joe Maddon since he can already play SS, 2B and 3B. But since the Cubs are probably only going to carry 4 outfielders and have a short bench, Maddon would like Baez to be that 5th OF.
If Maddon rests his infielders on a weekly basis, Baez could play 3 times a week or approximately 72 games this season. He would probably get around 300 ABs as an infield starter. He could be a defensive replacement or double switch candidate off the bench. He could also be a pinch hitter. So he will probably get at least 400 AB during the season as a utility player without having to play the outfield.
It comes down to this: Matt Szczur is out of options. He can play plus defense in the outfield. He is a better OF defender than Baez. But with four "starters" already penciled in the outfield, Szczur won't play very much. And Baez can be the right handed pinch hitter off the bench. So defense will be sacrificed if Baez takes Szczur's 5th outfielder spot on the depth chart.
The modern game has de-emphasized defense because it is hard to statistically quantify defense metrics. Instead, the trend is to mirror the video game world of big bats and big power pitchers. And playing players in multiple positions so a manager has line-up flexibility (and a shorter bench since the bullpens have been growing in number and prominence.)
Javy Baez made his spring debut in center field. It was an odd choice considering the Cubs just signed Dexter Fowler to be the regular CF with Justin Heyward as the back-up from his RF position.
ESPNChicago noted Baez's CF debut was less than stellar:
Baez was tested immediately in center field where he's trying to learn a new position. The first three Milwaukee hitters hit the ball to him starting with Jonathan Villar's triple off the wall. Baez got turned around several times and should have played it off the wall to keep Villar to a double. Then he threw offline on a sacrifice fly before taking a bad route on the next fly ball which popped in and out of his glove.
"I haven't missed one ball all spring training," Baez said afterwards. "Good thing it happens now and not later."
Baez statement is true in one extent: it is better to get the butterflies and fielding issues worked on during spring training. But putting even an athletic player into CF cold is very difficult. Jimmy Piersall said that playing CF is the hardest outfield position because you cannot see the angle of the ball immediately off the bat. In the corner outfields, you can quickly gauge the depth and angle of the hit ball. But in center, your perception is straight on. That is why good fielder will know what the pitcher is going to throw and shade himself toward the potential contact field. In addition to tracking the balls, a center fielder has to cover more ground. Speed and arm accuracy are critical tools for a center fielder who needs to anticipate the hitter and runners and where to hit the cut-off man.
Baez has no game experience playing CF. It will be a baptism by trial and error. But it may be a case of diminishing returns. He is slated to be the super-sub infielder for Joe Maddon since he can already play SS, 2B and 3B. But since the Cubs are probably only going to carry 4 outfielders and have a short bench, Maddon would like Baez to be that 5th OF.
If Maddon rests his infielders on a weekly basis, Baez could play 3 times a week or approximately 72 games this season. He would probably get around 300 ABs as an infield starter. He could be a defensive replacement or double switch candidate off the bench. He could also be a pinch hitter. So he will probably get at least 400 AB during the season as a utility player without having to play the outfield.
It comes down to this: Matt Szczur is out of options. He can play plus defense in the outfield. He is a better OF defender than Baez. But with four "starters" already penciled in the outfield, Szczur won't play very much. And Baez can be the right handed pinch hitter off the bench. So defense will be sacrificed if Baez takes Szczur's 5th outfielder spot on the depth chart.
October 7, 2015
FIRST GUESSING
I think Maddon is overdoing it, again.
Word is that he will start Tommy LaStella at third base,
move Bryant to the big LF area, and move Schwarber to RF.
Why mix and match now?
LaStella is not a starter. He is not the best infield defender
(Baez). And Coghlan has more power than LaStella,
which is more important in a close game with a fastball
pitcher like Cole on the mound.
No, you play your best your best eight starters from the start of the game.
If Schwarber is a liability in the wide acreage of LF, move him to right field.
He has already played a couple games there. Then insert Coghlan in LF,
and keep Bryant at his natural position, third.
With Arrieta on the mound, there should be less emphasis on defense because
he is a strike out pitcher with command. Against Cole, you need quick offense
and power bats in the lineup.
Word is that he will start Tommy LaStella at third base,
move Bryant to the big LF area, and move Schwarber to RF.
Why mix and match now?
LaStella is not a starter. He is not the best infield defender
(Baez). And Coghlan has more power than LaStella,
which is more important in a close game with a fastball
pitcher like Cole on the mound.
No, you play your best your best eight starters from the start of the game.
If Schwarber is a liability in the wide acreage of LF, move him to right field.
He has already played a couple games there. Then insert Coghlan in LF,
and keep Bryant at his natural position, third.
With Arrieta on the mound, there should be less emphasis on defense because
he is a strike out pitcher with command. Against Cole, you need quick offense
and power bats in the lineup.
July 24, 2015
HOLDING TOO LONG
There are times when general managers hold on to their players too long. Trying to trade or sell an asset is best at its peak value. For Starlin Castro and Javy Baez, it was last winter. Castro has been slumping badly this year, and his fielding is just as suspect. Baez got hurt but prior to that he was demoted to AAA.
ESPN's Jayson Stark reported that the Cubs have offered Castro and Baez to the Phillies for pitcher Cole Hamels, who has three years and a lot of money owed on his deal.
Stark added, however, that the Phillies are not enthralled with either player. But the Cubs remain determined in their efforts to trade for Hamels.
"I don't think they'll be in the rental market," the executive who has spoken to the Cubs told Stark. "So the value to them, with Hamels, is the three years [left on his contract]. This isn't just about selling out to go for the wild card. It's about getting ahead of [the free-agent ace market] this winter."
The Phillies are a difficult front office to deal with in trades. They ask for too much. But the problem with Hamels is his contract. Very few teams want to eat $68 million plus a potential $24 million vesting option in 2019. As a result, a team wanting Hamels is not going to offer the "best" prospects in order to absorb Hamels' money. But the Phils think Hamels is an elite player so they are entitled to many elite players and prospects in return.
We know the Cubs front office is enamored by Hamels. Last season when the Phils put him on trade waivers, the Cubs made a claim, meaning Chicago was willing to eat the full contract. But the Phils pulled Hamels back off waivers, and no deal was made between the clubs.
As I said a long time ago, when Derek Jeter was retiring, the Yankees were the best trade partner for Castro. But there was never a hint or rumor that the Cubs-Yankees talked trade.
Baez is like Castro in that he is a free swinging shortstop. Baez has better defensive skills, but overall he has been lost in his own professional wilderness. A family tragedy, and an injury have set back his development into the whisper of his career trending toward very good AAA replacement level player at the MLB level. That label will not get an starting pitcher in the trade market.
There is too much tape on both Castro and Baez to be cornerstone pieces in a trade. They may be throw-in players, but other clubs are rudely asking for Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant, Kyle Hendricks or Anthony Rizzo for their best players. The Cubs are going to hold on to their "core" players since that is the whole purpose of their slash and burn rebuild plan.
There is also another problem. The Cubs reportedly only have $5 million left in their baseball budget for payroll additions. Hamels would break the budget. Considering the Cubs are eating $16 million for Edwin Jackson's release, the only type of starter one can get would be a $4 to $5 million 4th starter.
The type of player the Cubs could afford would be Cub killer Mike Leake of the Reds. Leake is 8-5, 3.78 ERA, 1.181 WHIP, owed about $5 million left on last year of his contract. He is a free agent at the end of the season. He is a rental player for this year's wild card run. The problem with the Reds is that they don't need middle infield help so Castro or Baez are not trade pieces in a potential Leake deal. And the Cubs do not have any real good minor league starting pitching prospects to dangle for a veteran arm.
So the Cubs are stuck with weak trade chips in a Seller's market.
ESPN's Jayson Stark reported that the Cubs have offered Castro and Baez to the Phillies for pitcher Cole Hamels, who has three years and a lot of money owed on his deal.
Stark added, however, that the Phillies are not enthralled with either player. But the Cubs remain determined in their efforts to trade for Hamels.
"I don't think they'll be in the rental market," the executive who has spoken to the Cubs told Stark. "So the value to them, with Hamels, is the three years [left on his contract]. This isn't just about selling out to go for the wild card. It's about getting ahead of [the free-agent ace market] this winter."
The Phillies are a difficult front office to deal with in trades. They ask for too much. But the problem with Hamels is his contract. Very few teams want to eat $68 million plus a potential $24 million vesting option in 2019. As a result, a team wanting Hamels is not going to offer the "best" prospects in order to absorb Hamels' money. But the Phils think Hamels is an elite player so they are entitled to many elite players and prospects in return.
We know the Cubs front office is enamored by Hamels. Last season when the Phils put him on trade waivers, the Cubs made a claim, meaning Chicago was willing to eat the full contract. But the Phils pulled Hamels back off waivers, and no deal was made between the clubs.
As I said a long time ago, when Derek Jeter was retiring, the Yankees were the best trade partner for Castro. But there was never a hint or rumor that the Cubs-Yankees talked trade.
Baez is like Castro in that he is a free swinging shortstop. Baez has better defensive skills, but overall he has been lost in his own professional wilderness. A family tragedy, and an injury have set back his development into the whisper of his career trending toward very good AAA replacement level player at the MLB level. That label will not get an starting pitcher in the trade market.
There is too much tape on both Castro and Baez to be cornerstone pieces in a trade. They may be throw-in players, but other clubs are rudely asking for Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant, Kyle Hendricks or Anthony Rizzo for their best players. The Cubs are going to hold on to their "core" players since that is the whole purpose of their slash and burn rebuild plan.
There is also another problem. The Cubs reportedly only have $5 million left in their baseball budget for payroll additions. Hamels would break the budget. Considering the Cubs are eating $16 million for Edwin Jackson's release, the only type of starter one can get would be a $4 to $5 million 4th starter.
The type of player the Cubs could afford would be Cub killer Mike Leake of the Reds. Leake is 8-5, 3.78 ERA, 1.181 WHIP, owed about $5 million left on last year of his contract. He is a free agent at the end of the season. He is a rental player for this year's wild card run. The problem with the Reds is that they don't need middle infield help so Castro or Baez are not trade pieces in a potential Leake deal. And the Cubs do not have any real good minor league starting pitching prospects to dangle for a veteran arm.
So the Cubs are stuck with weak trade chips in a Seller's market.
May 8, 2015
OUT IN LEFT FIELD
Friends have continued the debate about the Cubs lack of a left fielder.
Chris Coghlan is not the long term answer. In fact, no one on the current roster is the answer in left field. Kris Bryant has shown that he can play a competent major league third base. He is used to that position, don't mess with his mind by moving him around to the outfield.
With Addison Russell settling into second base, and Starlin Castro is staying at shortstop (even though Addison and Javy Baez are better defensively at that position), it means that Baez appears to be the odd man odd.
Unless Baez is the one to move to LF, he seems that he is the most likely July trade bait. Last year, we thought that Castro would have been traded to the Yankees as the replacement for Derek Jeter. But that seems to be a long shot now.
Joe Maddon has started to settle in to a more or less consistent line up with Rizzo and Soler flipping 2-3 slots (but perhaps Bryant will move permanently to the 3rd slot and Soler to clean up). This puts Castro in the 5th spot where he can do some free swinging, the left fielder batting 6th, catcher 7th and Russell batting 9th.
Coghlan is batting .203 and recalled Matt Szczur is batting .200. Junior Lake hit .286 in limited playing time before being sent back to Iowa. He seems to be deemed only a replacement player. Mike Baxter is hitting .303 in Iowa but lacks power.
So the Cubs are in a bind in left field. They need to upgrade the position, but it will probably cost them at least Baez (if he is hitting) and a potential pitching prospect (like C.J. Edwards). The question is always whether it is worth the risk to acquire a veteran outfielder for a wild card push or hold onto the prospects for next season.
Chris Coghlan is not the long term answer. In fact, no one on the current roster is the answer in left field. Kris Bryant has shown that he can play a competent major league third base. He is used to that position, don't mess with his mind by moving him around to the outfield.
With Addison Russell settling into second base, and Starlin Castro is staying at shortstop (even though Addison and Javy Baez are better defensively at that position), it means that Baez appears to be the odd man odd.
Unless Baez is the one to move to LF, he seems that he is the most likely July trade bait. Last year, we thought that Castro would have been traded to the Yankees as the replacement for Derek Jeter. But that seems to be a long shot now.
Joe Maddon has started to settle in to a more or less consistent line up with Rizzo and Soler flipping 2-3 slots (but perhaps Bryant will move permanently to the 3rd slot and Soler to clean up). This puts Castro in the 5th spot where he can do some free swinging, the left fielder batting 6th, catcher 7th and Russell batting 9th.
Coghlan is batting .203 and recalled Matt Szczur is batting .200. Junior Lake hit .286 in limited playing time before being sent back to Iowa. He seems to be deemed only a replacement player. Mike Baxter is hitting .303 in Iowa but lacks power.
So the Cubs are in a bind in left field. They need to upgrade the position, but it will probably cost them at least Baez (if he is hitting) and a potential pitching prospect (like C.J. Edwards). The question is always whether it is worth the risk to acquire a veteran outfielder for a wild card push or hold onto the prospects for next season.
March 30, 2015
CUBS BIG MOVES
The Cubs made its big spring roster moves. Kris Bryant and Addison Russell were reassigned to Iowa (because they are not yet on the 40 man roster) and Javy Baez was optioned to AAA (each player has three options years).
The reasons are clear but not without some controversy.
Bryant, who leads the majors with nine spring training home runs and battied .425 (17-for-40) with 15 RBIs in 14 games, was sent to the minors to start the season so that the Cubs will gain an extra year until he is eligible for free agency. Bryant's agent and many fans railed at the fact that the Cubs would put "a business decision" ahead of having the best 25 players on the field for opening day. And considering the Cubs ownership and management have told fans that the team is going to compete for the NL Central title and playoffs this year, not having probably your best hitter in the minors seems two-faced.
Further, the business decision is all based on the assumption that Bryant will still be productive SIX years from now. If you are in "win now" mode, you play your best players because your team may only have a small, one year window of opportunity (see, 2005 White Sox).
The Cubs claim that it was for developmental reasons. When Theo Epstein came to Chicago, he did have this arbitrary philosophy that minor league players need 500 AAA at-bats before being promoted to the major leagues. Bryant has had 297 ABs in AAA so far. That would mean Bryant is going to be in Iowa for more than the estimated two weeks since 200 ABs equates to another 35-40 games played for him to reach the 500 threshold. The Cubs will not admit this, but keeping Bryant down longer this season will help stop him from reaching Super Two status (the top 22 percent of rookie players in the game get a chance at early arbitration year).
It may take 30 games to train Bryant in left field duties. That is supposedly the plan if Mike Olt can be a passable third baseman. But based on Olt's Cub performance to date, Bryant is just as good fielder and a significantly better hitter than Olt. The Cubs have no other seasoned third baseman on the roster.
This could mean shortstop Russell, currently blocked by Starlin Castro, may also have to learn a new position in Iowa: third base. Russell looks like he has the body type that will fill out over time. He does have the arm strength to play the position. It was no surprise that despite batted .324 with a homer and six RBIs this spring, Russell was being sent to Iowa.
The Baez demotion took some people by surprise, maybe including manager Joe Maddon who has campaigned for days in keeping Baez on the roster for his fine defense and base running skills. But Baez struggled mightily this spring, batting just .173 with one homer, one RBI and 20 strikeouts in 52 at-bats. The slugging infielder had a whopping 95 strikeouts in 213 at-bats with the Cubs last season.
Baez has also not taken well to coaching in regard to his swing mechanics. The Cubs staff has tried to get Baez to shorten up his loopy power swing to cut down on the holes in the zone. The Cubs staff has also tried to get Baez to shorten his leg kick swing trigger. Apparently he tries the new mechanics in the batting cage, but not in game situations. Some felt that keeping Baez on the major league roster, he could get batting advice from the major league hitting coach and Maddon.
The fall out for these three roster moves is apparent:
Olt wins the starting third base position by default.
Arismendy Alcantara and Tommy LaStella will probably platoon at second base. Alcantara played CF for the Cubs last season, but is a natural second baseman who has some power. As camp began, LaStella was perceived as a utility-bench player.
The noise about trading Castro will die off with the move of Russell. But if Russell is not going to switch to third (or second if Alcantara returns to supersub role and Baez fails to cut down on strikeouts), then the pressure will be on management to move either Castro or Russell for a bigger piece of the championship puzzle (for example, a deal for major league ace starter like Cole Hamels).
The reasons are clear but not without some controversy.
Bryant, who leads the majors with nine spring training home runs and battied .425 (17-for-40) with 15 RBIs in 14 games, was sent to the minors to start the season so that the Cubs will gain an extra year until he is eligible for free agency. Bryant's agent and many fans railed at the fact that the Cubs would put "a business decision" ahead of having the best 25 players on the field for opening day. And considering the Cubs ownership and management have told fans that the team is going to compete for the NL Central title and playoffs this year, not having probably your best hitter in the minors seems two-faced.
Further, the business decision is all based on the assumption that Bryant will still be productive SIX years from now. If you are in "win now" mode, you play your best players because your team may only have a small, one year window of opportunity (see, 2005 White Sox).
The Cubs claim that it was for developmental reasons. When Theo Epstein came to Chicago, he did have this arbitrary philosophy that minor league players need 500 AAA at-bats before being promoted to the major leagues. Bryant has had 297 ABs in AAA so far. That would mean Bryant is going to be in Iowa for more than the estimated two weeks since 200 ABs equates to another 35-40 games played for him to reach the 500 threshold. The Cubs will not admit this, but keeping Bryant down longer this season will help stop him from reaching Super Two status (the top 22 percent of rookie players in the game get a chance at early arbitration year).
It may take 30 games to train Bryant in left field duties. That is supposedly the plan if Mike Olt can be a passable third baseman. But based on Olt's Cub performance to date, Bryant is just as good fielder and a significantly better hitter than Olt. The Cubs have no other seasoned third baseman on the roster.
This could mean shortstop Russell, currently blocked by Starlin Castro, may also have to learn a new position in Iowa: third base. Russell looks like he has the body type that will fill out over time. He does have the arm strength to play the position. It was no surprise that despite batted .324 with a homer and six RBIs this spring, Russell was being sent to Iowa.
The Baez demotion took some people by surprise, maybe including manager Joe Maddon who has campaigned for days in keeping Baez on the roster for his fine defense and base running skills. But Baez struggled mightily this spring, batting just .173 with one homer, one RBI and 20 strikeouts in 52 at-bats. The slugging infielder had a whopping 95 strikeouts in 213 at-bats with the Cubs last season.
Baez has also not taken well to coaching in regard to his swing mechanics. The Cubs staff has tried to get Baez to shorten up his loopy power swing to cut down on the holes in the zone. The Cubs staff has also tried to get Baez to shorten his leg kick swing trigger. Apparently he tries the new mechanics in the batting cage, but not in game situations. Some felt that keeping Baez on the major league roster, he could get batting advice from the major league hitting coach and Maddon.
The fall out for these three roster moves is apparent:
Olt wins the starting third base position by default.
Arismendy Alcantara and Tommy LaStella will probably platoon at second base. Alcantara played CF for the Cubs last season, but is a natural second baseman who has some power. As camp began, LaStella was perceived as a utility-bench player.
The noise about trading Castro will die off with the move of Russell. But if Russell is not going to switch to third (or second if Alcantara returns to supersub role and Baez fails to cut down on strikeouts), then the pressure will be on management to move either Castro or Russell for a bigger piece of the championship puzzle (for example, a deal for major league ace starter like Cole Hamels).
January 27, 2015
TOO HARD
With the passing of Cub legend Ernie Banks, people have got an opportunity to reflect at one of the great players and human beings in Chicago history. Banks is remembered as a jovial, high spirited, fun loving, nice and exceptionally talented man who in Cub tradition never made it to the post-season stage. He played the game like he did as a kid, with youthful exuberance. Every day he had a chance to play baseball, he felt joyous. It was not a job to him, it was his pleasure.
Banks was the rare individual who performed at a high level playing a child's game with a childlike innocence, respect and intelligence.
Many current players may have started their paths with the same childlike zest for the sport, but over time, the pressure, expectations and money turns the game into dreary work. Being a professional is being able to balance all the conflicting elements of being a highly paid athlete while tapping the inner child's passion for the game.
MLB.com reported that Joe Maddon went to Puerto Rico to see Javy Baez in winter ball. “He’s trying way too hard,” says Maddon. “I want him to back off. The last thing I want him to do is try to impress me tonight. … I said, ‘Hit a couple singles and, above all, I want to see you smile.’”
The 22-year-old Baez’s 2014 stat line (.169/.227/.324 in 229 plate appearances) was a concern, but written off as understandable given his youth. But he needs to improve his strikeout rate before he can make an impact in the big leagues. That is what a professional has to accomplish: adapt to better competition at the final level. As a result of the ramped up expectations on the Cubs, many believe all the Theo-Jed prospects are going to be instant All-Stars. But statistically, that is impossible.
If players like Baez "are trying too hard" to make contact, hit the glamorous home run, and become a star like their press clippings before their time, they will be doomed. The Cubs have a history of touting five-tool, "can't miss" prospects. There are times just to let things play out naturally on the field, like Banks' approach to playing his game.
Banks was the rare individual who performed at a high level playing a child's game with a childlike innocence, respect and intelligence.
Many current players may have started their paths with the same childlike zest for the sport, but over time, the pressure, expectations and money turns the game into dreary work. Being a professional is being able to balance all the conflicting elements of being a highly paid athlete while tapping the inner child's passion for the game.
MLB.com reported that Joe Maddon went to Puerto Rico to see Javy Baez in winter ball. “He’s trying way too hard,” says Maddon. “I want him to back off. The last thing I want him to do is try to impress me tonight. … I said, ‘Hit a couple singles and, above all, I want to see you smile.’”
The 22-year-old Baez’s 2014 stat line (.169/.227/.324 in 229 plate appearances) was a concern, but written off as understandable given his youth. But he needs to improve his strikeout rate before he can make an impact in the big leagues. That is what a professional has to accomplish: adapt to better competition at the final level. As a result of the ramped up expectations on the Cubs, many believe all the Theo-Jed prospects are going to be instant All-Stars. But statistically, that is impossible.
If players like Baez "are trying too hard" to make contact, hit the glamorous home run, and become a star like their press clippings before their time, they will be doomed. The Cubs have a history of touting five-tool, "can't miss" prospects. There are times just to let things play out naturally on the field, like Banks' approach to playing his game.
September 21, 2014
THE LONG AND SHORT OF IT
When Starlin Castro went down to injury, Javy Baez stepped in at short. Even though the front office said Castro is their shortstop for the future, and Baez had been promoted to "learn" second at the major league level, Baez continues to play exclusively short. (I don't count the need of putting in .238 hitting powerhouse Chris Valakia at short).
Which does beg the question: why?
If Baez is supposed to be your second baseman in 2015, why not let him get fully acclimated at second this year? It seems like a wasted opportunity.
One could think that it is the Cubs being the Cubs by playing everyone out of their natural position, such as true second basemen Alcantara and Watkins roaming the outfield.
But if Baez is going to be a foundational infield piece, not playing him at second seems to foretell that Castro is not the long term Cubs shortstop.
I have been saying that a Castro trade to the Yankees (to replace All-Star Jeter) makes sense, except that the Yankees do not have a deep farm system of products. But at this point, the Cubs really need major league ready players in return for trades - - - especially pitchers.
And even Baez is not penciled in to be the Cubs shortstop of the future. Addison Russell is the front office choice.
Baez: .178 BA, 9 HR, 18 RBI, negative 0.4 WAR.
Baez (Iowa): .260 BA, 23 HR, 80 RBI.
Russell (A/AA): .295 BA, 13 HR, 45 RBI.
It would seem that Russell is 2 years away from his major league debut (late 2016). And Baez had not locked down a spot. After homering seven times in his first 19 games Baez has gone deep just twice in his last 24 games while hitting .146 with 44 strikeouts. Baez is hitting .178 with 78 strikeouts in 43 games overall, which is worrisome even for a free-swinging 21-year-old slugger who also struck out a ton in the minors.
The surplus is in middle infield talent. But most of that talent, except for Castro, is unknown. Which makes Castro the easiest piece to trade this off season.
Which does beg the question: why?
If Baez is supposed to be your second baseman in 2015, why not let him get fully acclimated at second this year? It seems like a wasted opportunity.
One could think that it is the Cubs being the Cubs by playing everyone out of their natural position, such as true second basemen Alcantara and Watkins roaming the outfield.
But if Baez is going to be a foundational infield piece, not playing him at second seems to foretell that Castro is not the long term Cubs shortstop.
I have been saying that a Castro trade to the Yankees (to replace All-Star Jeter) makes sense, except that the Yankees do not have a deep farm system of products. But at this point, the Cubs really need major league ready players in return for trades - - - especially pitchers.
And even Baez is not penciled in to be the Cubs shortstop of the future. Addison Russell is the front office choice.
Baez: .178 BA, 9 HR, 18 RBI, negative 0.4 WAR.
Baez (Iowa): .260 BA, 23 HR, 80 RBI.
Russell (A/AA): .295 BA, 13 HR, 45 RBI.
It would seem that Russell is 2 years away from his major league debut (late 2016). And Baez had not locked down a spot. After homering seven times in his first 19 games Baez has gone deep just twice in his last 24 games while hitting .146 with 44 strikeouts. Baez is hitting .178 with 78 strikeouts in 43 games overall, which is worrisome even for a free-swinging 21-year-old slugger who also struck out a ton in the minors.
The surplus is in middle infield talent. But most of that talent, except for Castro, is unknown. Which makes Castro the easiest piece to trade this off season.
September 2, 2014
BAD HABITS
The big takeaway from Labor Day baseball is that the Cubs will labor at the plate.
Everyone, including veterans like Wellington Castillo, are now in games free swinging their bats to jack homers in batting practice. These overswings are going to take a toll on player bodies.
Anthony Rizzo has been out seven straight games with a bad back. Backs don't heal like other body parts. As anyone who has had a back issue, they never really go away. A person needs to be preventative.
Javy Baez followed rookie Starlin Castro's free wheeling approach to the plate. Both started off strong with hitting balls out of the zone and out of the part. When Jorge Soler arrived, he has the same overcut that creates massive power and majestic home runs. But the torque created in the back is a contorted sight.
The home run power may dazzle the fans but may cause more problems in the future. The Cubs may hit more home runs, but actually score less because they don't get on base. It's feast or famine: homer or strikeout. This is not a consistent approach to winning.
But the Cubs are not at the point of winning, yet. They just want to revive interest in the team with their home run happy rookies. Winning will come later.
But bad plate discipline is a bad habit to break, especially in younger players. The league will quickly catch up with rookie hitters, and it is the adjustments that need to be taken will either make or break a young career.
Everyone, including veterans like Wellington Castillo, are now in games free swinging their bats to jack homers in batting practice. These overswings are going to take a toll on player bodies.
Anthony Rizzo has been out seven straight games with a bad back. Backs don't heal like other body parts. As anyone who has had a back issue, they never really go away. A person needs to be preventative.
Javy Baez followed rookie Starlin Castro's free wheeling approach to the plate. Both started off strong with hitting balls out of the zone and out of the part. When Jorge Soler arrived, he has the same overcut that creates massive power and majestic home runs. But the torque created in the back is a contorted sight.
The home run power may dazzle the fans but may cause more problems in the future. The Cubs may hit more home runs, but actually score less because they don't get on base. It's feast or famine: homer or strikeout. This is not a consistent approach to winning.
But the Cubs are not at the point of winning, yet. They just want to revive interest in the team with their home run happy rookies. Winning will come later.
But bad plate discipline is a bad habit to break, especially in younger players. The league will quickly catch up with rookie hitters, and it is the adjustments that need to be taken will either make or break a young career.
August 25, 2014
HERALDED PROSPECTS
When rookie shortstop Gordon Beckham arrived on the South Side, he had a quick start which propelled him into the "can't miss" category. In 2009, he hit .270, 14 HR and 63 RBI with a 2.1 WAR. Sadly, that was his best major league season. He went to play second full time, and was a Gold Glove caliber defender.
But after 5.5 years with the Sox, Beckham batted only .244, 61 HR, 276 RBI and 5.9 WAR. The "can't miss" prospect with the confidence to be an All-Star turned into a "can't hit" major leaguer.
Beckham's case is not unusual. Less than six percent of all minor leaguers make it to the majors, and very few have All-Star caliber careers. Beckham is the latest example of how an accomplished minor league prospect can make an initial splash in the Show, but fail to have a good career.
So the White Sox traded Beckham to the Angels for a player to be named or cash.
Beckham lasted longer than the Cubs Brett Jackson, who was also traded this summer for nominal return. Jackson was a highly anticipated five tool centerfielder who could be a cornerstone player for the Cubs for a decade. His major league career lasted only 44 games.
Even today, highly regarded prospect Javy Baez is wowing the crowds with massive home runs. But Baez also is a strike out mess (being punched out more than 43 percent). In his first 17 games, Baez has hit 5 home runs, but struck out 30 times. He is only hitting .214. It is feast of famine. It is almost an exact repeat of Jackson's struggles.
Even players who have a good track record can begin to falter for no apparent reason. Travis Wood's last outing against the rain soaked Giants was termed "an Edwin start," a Cub term of art for a bad performance. Wood's performance has become to noticeably slide from his excellent 2013 season (4.4 WAR) to this year (negative 0.4 WAR).
Even the best prospects may only give a team a slight, one year jolt in performance. The lesson is clear: there is still a major leap from AAA to the majors. More than 90 percent of those prospects don't make a long term career out of their opportunity.
But after 5.5 years with the Sox, Beckham batted only .244, 61 HR, 276 RBI and 5.9 WAR. The "can't miss" prospect with the confidence to be an All-Star turned into a "can't hit" major leaguer.
Beckham's case is not unusual. Less than six percent of all minor leaguers make it to the majors, and very few have All-Star caliber careers. Beckham is the latest example of how an accomplished minor league prospect can make an initial splash in the Show, but fail to have a good career.
So the White Sox traded Beckham to the Angels for a player to be named or cash.
Beckham lasted longer than the Cubs Brett Jackson, who was also traded this summer for nominal return. Jackson was a highly anticipated five tool centerfielder who could be a cornerstone player for the Cubs for a decade. His major league career lasted only 44 games.
Even today, highly regarded prospect Javy Baez is wowing the crowds with massive home runs. But Baez also is a strike out mess (being punched out more than 43 percent). In his first 17 games, Baez has hit 5 home runs, but struck out 30 times. He is only hitting .214. It is feast of famine. It is almost an exact repeat of Jackson's struggles.
Even players who have a good track record can begin to falter for no apparent reason. Travis Wood's last outing against the rain soaked Giants was termed "an Edwin start," a Cub term of art for a bad performance. Wood's performance has become to noticeably slide from his excellent 2013 season (4.4 WAR) to this year (negative 0.4 WAR).
Even the best prospects may only give a team a slight, one year jolt in performance. The lesson is clear: there is still a major leap from AAA to the majors. More than 90 percent of those prospects don't make a long term career out of their opportunity.
August 18, 2014
RANDOM THOUGHTS
I could of random thoughts from last week:
1. Javy Baez is going to have back problems some time during his career. Even Kasper and Deshields mentioned the amount of torque unleashed when Baez swings past the plate. The full upper body twist and less movement in the legs is like a professional golfer coiling for a tee shot. And most professional golfers will admit that the number one injury on tour is a bad back.
2. The new home plate collision rule is turning into a monumental waste. The rule was to protect the catcher (specifically All-Star Buster Posey and his multi-million dollar contract) from being plowed over Ray Fosse style. But the rule makes no sense that forces a catcher to move off the plate then matador back toward a sliding runner. There should not be a special rule for home plate outs. The baserunning rules should be consistent - - - when a player gets the ball, he can block any base to apply a tag. If he blocks a base before he has possession of the ball, the runner is safe by fielder interference. Simple rule. Simple application.
3. Cub fans see the prospects coming up through the system. They are excited about renewed hope. But at the same time, they fall under the spell of the current Cubs, believing that Lake, Ruggiano, Sweeney and Coghlan are important pieces for the future. They are not. They are a collection of 5th outfielders/bench players who have been major pieces in a run of 90 plus loss seasons.
4. Many sports pundits in town shutter at the thought that the White Sox in 2015 may have a starting rotation of four left handed pitchers (Sale, Quintana, Danks and Rodon). They fear that with the majors being mostly right handed hitting, that the Sox will be at a major disadvantage. But if a pitcher is good, he can get out right handed hitters. And this is not unprecedented - - - the Kansas City Royals in 1982 with Larry Gura, Paul Splittorf, Bud Black and Vida Blue won 90 games.
5. Baez's first Wrigley Field home run went onto Waveland. My first thought was that this type of moment will be gone when the new outfield signage is installed at Wrigley. No more homers flying out of the park.
1. Javy Baez is going to have back problems some time during his career. Even Kasper and Deshields mentioned the amount of torque unleashed when Baez swings past the plate. The full upper body twist and less movement in the legs is like a professional golfer coiling for a tee shot. And most professional golfers will admit that the number one injury on tour is a bad back.
2. The new home plate collision rule is turning into a monumental waste. The rule was to protect the catcher (specifically All-Star Buster Posey and his multi-million dollar contract) from being plowed over Ray Fosse style. But the rule makes no sense that forces a catcher to move off the plate then matador back toward a sliding runner. There should not be a special rule for home plate outs. The baserunning rules should be consistent - - - when a player gets the ball, he can block any base to apply a tag. If he blocks a base before he has possession of the ball, the runner is safe by fielder interference. Simple rule. Simple application.
3. Cub fans see the prospects coming up through the system. They are excited about renewed hope. But at the same time, they fall under the spell of the current Cubs, believing that Lake, Ruggiano, Sweeney and Coghlan are important pieces for the future. They are not. They are a collection of 5th outfielders/bench players who have been major pieces in a run of 90 plus loss seasons.
4. Many sports pundits in town shutter at the thought that the White Sox in 2015 may have a starting rotation of four left handed pitchers (Sale, Quintana, Danks and Rodon). They fear that with the majors being mostly right handed hitting, that the Sox will be at a major disadvantage. But if a pitcher is good, he can get out right handed hitters. And this is not unprecedented - - - the Kansas City Royals in 1982 with Larry Gura, Paul Splittorf, Bud Black and Vida Blue won 90 games.
5. Baez's first Wrigley Field home run went onto Waveland. My first thought was that this type of moment will be gone when the new outfield signage is installed at Wrigley. No more homers flying out of the park.
August 16, 2014
BEWARE VAULTED PROSPECTS
MLBTR reports that the Diamondbacks have acquired Cubs former first-round pick and top prospect Brett Jackson for minor league reliever Blake Cooper.
Jackson, 26, rated as one of the game’s top 100 prospects from
2010-12, according to both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus (he
topped out at No. 32 on BA’s list and No. 44 on BP’s list). Jackson was sold as a "five tool" player - - - hit for average, power, with speed and very good defensive skills. When his
stock was at its highest, BA likened him to Jim Edmonds,
noting that he had that type of ceiling at the plate, if not that type
of Gold Glove caliber defense in center field.
However, Jackson’s swing-and-miss tendencies caused his stock to plummet, as a problem he looked to have eliminated at the Double-A level resurfaced in Triple-A and still has yet to be corrected. Jackson was batting just .210/.298/.348 with a 37.3 percent strikeout rate for Triple-A Iowa this season and will look to deliver on some of his once sky-high potential in a new organization.
Jackson only had a brief stint in the majors. In 2012, he was called up and played in 44 games. In 142 plate appearances, he hit .175, 4 HR, 9 RBI, 59K, 22 BB for a 0.1 WAR. His strike out rate of 41.6 percent led to his permanent demotion. Jackson quickly faded off the Cubs top prospects list, and at one point was further demoted to AA. Like many other touted "can't miss" prospects, Jackson never filled his potential. This appears to be a change of scenery move to clear a 40 man roster space for the Cubs.
Cooper, also 26, was a 12th-round pick by the Diamondbacks in 2010 and reached Triple-A for the first time in 2014. Though he’s struggled to a 6.00 ERA in 24 innings there, Cooper was excellent at Double-A this year, posting a 1.85 ERA with 8.2 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 34 frames. His command has faltered since moving up to the top minor league level, as he’s walked 17 hitters in his 24 innings at Reno. The 5’11″, 190-pound righty has never ranked among Arizona’s top 30 prospects, according to BA, and he didn’t rank on MLB.com’s midseason list of the D’Backs’ top 20 prospects either. In parts of five minor league seasons, Cooper has a 3.27 ERA with a 217-to-98 K/BB ratio (seven of those free passes were intentional) in 236 2/3 innings.
There is caution in this trade story. Javy Baez continues to rack up strike outs. In 45 plate appearances, he has 17 Ks for a rate of 37.8 percent, which is too high for a major league player. The pressure to conform and adjust to major league pitching doomed Jackson's fate. He could not cut down on his strikeouts which torpedoed his value as a hitter. Baez is currently in the same audition mode as Jackson had in 2012.
However, Jackson’s swing-and-miss tendencies caused his stock to plummet, as a problem he looked to have eliminated at the Double-A level resurfaced in Triple-A and still has yet to be corrected. Jackson was batting just .210/.298/.348 with a 37.3 percent strikeout rate for Triple-A Iowa this season and will look to deliver on some of his once sky-high potential in a new organization.
Jackson only had a brief stint in the majors. In 2012, he was called up and played in 44 games. In 142 plate appearances, he hit .175, 4 HR, 9 RBI, 59K, 22 BB for a 0.1 WAR. His strike out rate of 41.6 percent led to his permanent demotion. Jackson quickly faded off the Cubs top prospects list, and at one point was further demoted to AA. Like many other touted "can't miss" prospects, Jackson never filled his potential. This appears to be a change of scenery move to clear a 40 man roster space for the Cubs.
Cooper, also 26, was a 12th-round pick by the Diamondbacks in 2010 and reached Triple-A for the first time in 2014. Though he’s struggled to a 6.00 ERA in 24 innings there, Cooper was excellent at Double-A this year, posting a 1.85 ERA with 8.2 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 34 frames. His command has faltered since moving up to the top minor league level, as he’s walked 17 hitters in his 24 innings at Reno. The 5’11″, 190-pound righty has never ranked among Arizona’s top 30 prospects, according to BA, and he didn’t rank on MLB.com’s midseason list of the D’Backs’ top 20 prospects either. In parts of five minor league seasons, Cooper has a 3.27 ERA with a 217-to-98 K/BB ratio (seven of those free passes were intentional) in 236 2/3 innings.
There is caution in this trade story. Javy Baez continues to rack up strike outs. In 45 plate appearances, he has 17 Ks for a rate of 37.8 percent, which is too high for a major league player. The pressure to conform and adjust to major league pitching doomed Jackson's fate. He could not cut down on his strikeouts which torpedoed his value as a hitter. Baez is currently in the same audition mode as Jackson had in 2012.
August 14, 2014
PAN OUT
Even broadcaster Len Kasper, who butters his toast on the Cubs logo, admits that not every prospect in a team's system will pan out and become a good major league player.
Kasper likes that the Cubs have many touted prospects in their minor league system. He also believes that one or two may become All-Stars. He also thinks that one or two may never make it to a Cub uniform, probably traded for needed pitching.
This radio conversation was brought about by his initial impressions of Javy Baez. With all the attention on Baez's promotion, Kasper has not seen enough to make any clear conclusions except that he believes Baez is better suited in the middle of the batting order.
There have been side by side comparisons to the swings of Baez and Gary Sheffield. Both had long quick hacks through the hitting zone. Sheffield had a 22 year major league career. He batted .292, with 509 HRs and a career 60.2 WAR. With such a small sample size, no one can really project Baez having such a good career.
One thing I have noticed is that pitchers are taking advantage of Baez's free swinging approach. With 13 Ks in his first 33 AB, a strike out rate of 39.3 percent is too high. But pitchers are not just getting him out on sliders or curves, but on high fastballs. In fact, pitchers do not seem to back off throwing heat to Baez. Normally with young, aggressive rookie hitters, pitchers set up hitters with off speed breaking balls. Then, the rookie needs to quickly learn how to adjust to major league pitching strategy.
It could be a macho thing, too. Pitchers who face a highly praised rookie may want to get him out with their best stuff, which is usually the fastball.
Will the Cubs try to tinker with Baez's swing in order to tighten it up so he makes more contact? The team did try to tinker with Starlin Castro's swing, which led to a reversion at the plate. The Cubs wanted to place Baez in the second hole to get as many at-bats this year as possible so when the eventual first slump takes place, Baez has time to adjust and get out of it. This is preventative medicine approach to hitting so Baez can start next season without the fear of having slumps or not having the knowledge to get out of one. If Baez can handle early adversity, he may pan out to be a good major league player. Or he may turn into another Corey Patterson.
Kasper likes that the Cubs have many touted prospects in their minor league system. He also believes that one or two may become All-Stars. He also thinks that one or two may never make it to a Cub uniform, probably traded for needed pitching.
This radio conversation was brought about by his initial impressions of Javy Baez. With all the attention on Baez's promotion, Kasper has not seen enough to make any clear conclusions except that he believes Baez is better suited in the middle of the batting order.
There have been side by side comparisons to the swings of Baez and Gary Sheffield. Both had long quick hacks through the hitting zone. Sheffield had a 22 year major league career. He batted .292, with 509 HRs and a career 60.2 WAR. With such a small sample size, no one can really project Baez having such a good career.
One thing I have noticed is that pitchers are taking advantage of Baez's free swinging approach. With 13 Ks in his first 33 AB, a strike out rate of 39.3 percent is too high. But pitchers are not just getting him out on sliders or curves, but on high fastballs. In fact, pitchers do not seem to back off throwing heat to Baez. Normally with young, aggressive rookie hitters, pitchers set up hitters with off speed breaking balls. Then, the rookie needs to quickly learn how to adjust to major league pitching strategy.
It could be a macho thing, too. Pitchers who face a highly praised rookie may want to get him out with their best stuff, which is usually the fastball.
Will the Cubs try to tinker with Baez's swing in order to tighten it up so he makes more contact? The team did try to tinker with Starlin Castro's swing, which led to a reversion at the plate. The Cubs wanted to place Baez in the second hole to get as many at-bats this year as possible so when the eventual first slump takes place, Baez has time to adjust and get out of it. This is preventative medicine approach to hitting so Baez can start next season without the fear of having slumps or not having the knowledge to get out of one. If Baez can handle early adversity, he may pan out to be a good major league player. Or he may turn into another Corey Patterson.
August 10, 2014
August 8, 2014
AHEAD OF ONE'S SELF
People are VERY excited by Javy Baez's coronation to the majors.
He is on pace to hit 162 HR and 270 RBI.
That would be awwwwwwww . . . . not gonna happen.
Baez has the free swinging approach similar to Starlin Castro when he made his splashy debut.
Fans are cheering Epstein and Hoyer for bringing the excitement back to Cub nation.
Again, Baez may be part of the plan but technically he was not part of Epstein's plan.
Castillo, Castro, Alcantara and Baez appear to many to be part of the "core" players that the team will be built around. Epstein's concept of "core" players was made early in his duties here as a means of telling the world that he was going to conduct a long, slow minor league system rebuild and re-stock the club with new, quality prospects.
Castillo, Castro, Alcantara and Baez have something else in common: they were all signed during the Jim Hendry era of Cub baseball.
It is not to say that when he first arrived Epstein can't play the cards he was dealt.
But he cannot take credit for fully developing any of the potential star players.
Kyle Hendricks was a Rangers prospect.
Jake Arrieta and Pedro Strop were Orioles prospects.
Anthony Rizzo was a Red Sox prospect and Padre minor leaguer.
Hector Rondon was an Indians prospect.
Chris Coghlan was a Marlins prospect.
Travis Wood was a Reds prospects.
Edwin Jackson was a journeyman pitcher; the same with many bullpen arms and utility players like Luis Valbuena, Justin Ruggiano.
Junior Lake and Chris Rusin were also Henry prospects.
Epstein and Hoyer have churned the Cubs major league roster. And there have been some promotions of Cub minor leaguers to the Bigs. But at the present moment, none of the Epstein-Hoyer scouted and signed players have reached the majors. So, at best, their talent evaluation grade is incomplete.
He is on pace to hit 162 HR and 270 RBI.
That would be awwwwwwww . . . . not gonna happen.
Baez has the free swinging approach similar to Starlin Castro when he made his splashy debut.
Fans are cheering Epstein and Hoyer for bringing the excitement back to Cub nation.
Again, Baez may be part of the plan but technically he was not part of Epstein's plan.
Castillo, Castro, Alcantara and Baez appear to many to be part of the "core" players that the team will be built around. Epstein's concept of "core" players was made early in his duties here as a means of telling the world that he was going to conduct a long, slow minor league system rebuild and re-stock the club with new, quality prospects.
Castillo, Castro, Alcantara and Baez have something else in common: they were all signed during the Jim Hendry era of Cub baseball.
It is not to say that when he first arrived Epstein can't play the cards he was dealt.
But he cannot take credit for fully developing any of the potential star players.
Kyle Hendricks was a Rangers prospect.
Jake Arrieta and Pedro Strop were Orioles prospects.
Anthony Rizzo was a Red Sox prospect and Padre minor leaguer.
Hector Rondon was an Indians prospect.
Chris Coghlan was a Marlins prospect.
Travis Wood was a Reds prospects.
Edwin Jackson was a journeyman pitcher; the same with many bullpen arms and utility players like Luis Valbuena, Justin Ruggiano.
Junior Lake and Chris Rusin were also Henry prospects.
Epstein and Hoyer have churned the Cubs major league roster. And there have been some promotions of Cub minor leaguers to the Bigs. But at the present moment, none of the Epstein-Hoyer scouted and signed players have reached the majors. So, at best, their talent evaluation grade is incomplete.
August 6, 2014
THE SHOW
The Savior came to the majors last night.
He went 1-6, 1 HR, 1 RBI and 1 GWRBI.
My initial impression of Javy Baez's start:
1. He has an extremely long swing. Whether his fast bat speed is enough to adapt to major league pitching speed changes and breaking balls is going to be the key to success.
2. He was batting in the second hole, so he was told to take more pitches. It was probably to calm his nerves and make him think situationally at the plate. The manager indicated that Baez will stay in the No. 2 slot in the order.
3. Free swingers typically have more streaks, good and bad. His approach to hitting seems more like a young Starlin Castro than an Anthony Rizzo. By promoting him during a lost season, the team is hoping Baez can learn how to get out of cold streaks and make adjustments before next year. If called to make a guess, Baez will be like Castro but with a lower batting average and more home runs.
4. First impressions can be deceiving, especially if a fan buys into the hype. Recall Junior Lake exploded onto the scene last year in his first professional series.
5. I don't know if he will stay at second base. Alcantara is a smoother defender at second. But there is general philosophy by the Cubs that the players are good athletes and good athletes can adapt and play many positions. I think that generalization only goes so far. Defensively, Baez may have better skill sets at third. But then, Kris Bryant is currently at AAA third, but now projects to being a corner outfielder. But Jorge Soler is going to be promoted in September, also as a corner outfielder. In some scouting reports, Baez also projects to being a corner outfielder.
He went 1-6, 1 HR, 1 RBI and 1 GWRBI.
My initial impression of Javy Baez's start:
1. He has an extremely long swing. Whether his fast bat speed is enough to adapt to major league pitching speed changes and breaking balls is going to be the key to success.
2. He was batting in the second hole, so he was told to take more pitches. It was probably to calm his nerves and make him think situationally at the plate. The manager indicated that Baez will stay in the No. 2 slot in the order.
3. Free swingers typically have more streaks, good and bad. His approach to hitting seems more like a young Starlin Castro than an Anthony Rizzo. By promoting him during a lost season, the team is hoping Baez can learn how to get out of cold streaks and make adjustments before next year. If called to make a guess, Baez will be like Castro but with a lower batting average and more home runs.
4. First impressions can be deceiving, especially if a fan buys into the hype. Recall Junior Lake exploded onto the scene last year in his first professional series.
5. I don't know if he will stay at second base. Alcantara is a smoother defender at second. But there is general philosophy by the Cubs that the players are good athletes and good athletes can adapt and play many positions. I think that generalization only goes so far. Defensively, Baez may have better skill sets at third. But then, Kris Bryant is currently at AAA third, but now projects to being a corner outfielder. But Jorge Soler is going to be promoted in September, also as a corner outfielder. In some scouting reports, Baez also projects to being a corner outfielder.
July 25, 2014
FUTURE CALLS
In the financial commodity business, there are instruments in which people can lock in a specific price for a good for delivery at a future time. These future calls are used to hedge against wild market swings in price. If you lock in a price you are willing to pay today for delivery next January, a business can budget more accurately than trying to buy the goods in January at open market prices. If you lock in lower than that market price, then you are ahead of the game.
The Cubs original plan was to have their wave of future call-ups of their top prospects several years from now, around 2017-2018, based upon the slow promotion of talent in the low minors.
But after the Samardzija and Hammel trade, there had to be a sudden budgetary shift inside the Cubs front office because the team is now moving to promote young players faster than expected.
Very few people thought Kyle Hendricks would be called up this soon, even in spot starter duty. The same was true for Dallas Beeler. But since the Cubs system is so thin on starting pitchers, the front office's hands were tied. But since they performed pretty well for rookies, it returned the near dead "hope" moniker to Cubland.
Then the call-up of A. Alcantara was a surprise to replace Darwin Barney who was on paternity leave for a couple of games. Alcantara had a blistering start (very much like Junior Lake the year before). And when Barney returned to the club, he was Wally Pipped, given his release as Alcantara had taken his roster spot.
Now, terrible third baseman Mike Olt was been sent back down (in order to get Wada on the roster for another spot start), there is speculation that the open 40 man roster spot will be filled by Javy Baez, who has been taking grounders at second in Iowa. Baez is either the Cubs #1, #1A or #2 prospect, depending on your scouting service.
With Alcantara moving the CF, Baez going to play second and Olt being demoted to open up third base, the whispers of an early Kris Bryant September call up are in the air. Bryant has hit at every level in the minors, so there is no reason to waste his at bats in AAA (even though Epstein said there was no way Bryant was making the team this year.) If Bryant does get a late season call up, the Cubs have altered their plan to try to win sooner than later.
The Cubs are so far behind (on the business side) that the baseball operations has to take the lead in order to stem the tide of red ink. Adding young, exciting prospects to the major league roster does create interest from a fan base that had written off this season.
If Bonifacio can get his legs again and hit, he will be traded before the deadline. If a team is looking for a 5th outfielder, Coghlan is gone. Or Sweeney. Or Lake. In other words, the trend is to open positions for the call-ups. Jorge Soler, who is on the 40 man roster, has been promoted to AAA ball. It is expected that he will get a September call up and play RF. Soler, who has been set back by hamstring injuries, was one of the new front office's "big" signs so they want, and need, to see some tangible results from Soler.
The view that the September Cubs will be more interesting than the April Cubs is apparent. The call-ups present a dress rehearsal for the Future Cubs. It is also possible that such a newly constructed squad will stem the tide of dropping gate and increasing no-shows which have hurt the Cubs team finances. Do not forget, no matter what is said, the Cubs and its owners are all about the money.
It is possible that a September Cub line up could be:
1. Alcantara cf
2. Castro ss
3. Rizzo 1b
4. Bryant 3b
5. Baez 2b
6. Soler rf
7. Castillo c
8. Lake lf
There are a lot of "slash" hitters in that line-up, and the possibility of high strike out rates. Is it enough "hope" to bring fans flocking back to the ball park? Only the future will tell.
The Cubs original plan was to have their wave of future call-ups of their top prospects several years from now, around 2017-2018, based upon the slow promotion of talent in the low minors.
But after the Samardzija and Hammel trade, there had to be a sudden budgetary shift inside the Cubs front office because the team is now moving to promote young players faster than expected.
Very few people thought Kyle Hendricks would be called up this soon, even in spot starter duty. The same was true for Dallas Beeler. But since the Cubs system is so thin on starting pitchers, the front office's hands were tied. But since they performed pretty well for rookies, it returned the near dead "hope" moniker to Cubland.
Then the call-up of A. Alcantara was a surprise to replace Darwin Barney who was on paternity leave for a couple of games. Alcantara had a blistering start (very much like Junior Lake the year before). And when Barney returned to the club, he was Wally Pipped, given his release as Alcantara had taken his roster spot.
Now, terrible third baseman Mike Olt was been sent back down (in order to get Wada on the roster for another spot start), there is speculation that the open 40 man roster spot will be filled by Javy Baez, who has been taking grounders at second in Iowa. Baez is either the Cubs #1, #1A or #2 prospect, depending on your scouting service.
With Alcantara moving the CF, Baez going to play second and Olt being demoted to open up third base, the whispers of an early Kris Bryant September call up are in the air. Bryant has hit at every level in the minors, so there is no reason to waste his at bats in AAA (even though Epstein said there was no way Bryant was making the team this year.) If Bryant does get a late season call up, the Cubs have altered their plan to try to win sooner than later.
The Cubs are so far behind (on the business side) that the baseball operations has to take the lead in order to stem the tide of red ink. Adding young, exciting prospects to the major league roster does create interest from a fan base that had written off this season.
If Bonifacio can get his legs again and hit, he will be traded before the deadline. If a team is looking for a 5th outfielder, Coghlan is gone. Or Sweeney. Or Lake. In other words, the trend is to open positions for the call-ups. Jorge Soler, who is on the 40 man roster, has been promoted to AAA ball. It is expected that he will get a September call up and play RF. Soler, who has been set back by hamstring injuries, was one of the new front office's "big" signs so they want, and need, to see some tangible results from Soler.
The view that the September Cubs will be more interesting than the April Cubs is apparent. The call-ups present a dress rehearsal for the Future Cubs. It is also possible that such a newly constructed squad will stem the tide of dropping gate and increasing no-shows which have hurt the Cubs team finances. Do not forget, no matter what is said, the Cubs and its owners are all about the money.
It is possible that a September Cub line up could be:
1. Alcantara cf
2. Castro ss
3. Rizzo 1b
4. Bryant 3b
5. Baez 2b
6. Soler rf
7. Castillo c
8. Lake lf
There are a lot of "slash" hitters in that line-up, and the possibility of high strike out rates. Is it enough "hope" to bring fans flocking back to the ball park? Only the future will tell.
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