March 20, 2013

THE WAR ROOM

The starting rotation and fielding eight are pretty much set for opening day. How good are these Cubs?

Based upon last year's performance, not so good. By WAR (Wins Above Replacement) metrics, the Cubs are well below average. A replacement player (AAA-AAA level) is a zero. A zero to 2 represents a bench player level. Two plus indicates a player is a MLB starter level. Five plus indicates that player is of All-Star quality. An eight plus indicates that a player is MVP caliber.

The starters for the Cubs:

Barney 4.6 - - - mostly calculated based on his defense, a starter
Castro 3.5 - - - a starter level player
Rizzo 2.2 - - - a starter level player
Soriano 1.8 - - - a bench level player, as in former starter losing his skills
DeJesus 1.6 - - - a bench player
Valbuena 0.4 - - - a low bench player level player, barely above a minor leaguer
Schierholtz -0.1 - - - negative zero point one is below a replacement level player.

Samardzija 1.6 - - - a reserve or middle reliever level pitcher
E. Jackson 1.6  - - - a reserve or middle reliever level pitcher
Villanueva 1.2 - - - a reserve or middle reliever level pitcher
T. Wood 0.6 - - -  a low reserve or middle reliever level pitcher
Feldman 0.0 - - - at minor league replacement level.

The Cubs will field only three legitimate major league level starters: Barney, Castro and Rizzo.
The rotation is filled with long relief-spot starter bullpen pitchers, and two that are replacement level AAAA minor league talent.