As spring training begins to wind down, opening day rosters are becoming quite clear. CBS Sports published this week a projected opening day lineup and rotation with closer for each team.
Our focus is on the NL Central. In 2012, the NL Central teams (excluding the Astros, now in the AL West) won a total of 408 games. If you divide 408 wins by 5 teams, the average is 81.6 wins/team. That is consistent with the average of 81 wins for a .500 club.
Using the published projected lineups, I ranked each team position player with his divisional peer. The ranking was 5 (for the best) to 1 (for the worst). This would equate to a total possible of 210 points. For each team rank point, it would project to 1.943 wins.
For the positional players, the points from the rankings finished as follows:
Reds 29
Cards 27
Brewers 25
Pirates 24
Cubs 15
For the pitchers (5 starters and closer), the points from the rankings finished as follows:
Reds 25 & Cards 25
Pirates 15
Brewers 13
Cubs 12
Total points were:
Reds 54 = 104.92 wins
Cards 52 = 101.04 wins
Pirates 39 = 75.78 wins
Brewers 38 = 73.83 wins
Cubs 27 = 52. 46 wins
From last year's standings and this projection:
Reds 105 wins = +8 wins from 2012 (97)
Cards 101 wins = +13 wins from 2012 (88)
Pirates 76 wins = +3 more losses from 2012 (79)
Brewers 74 wins = +9 more losses from 2012 (83)
Cubs 52 wins = +9 more losses from 2012 (61)
The Cardinals may project on paper as the most improved in the division, but the difference between the Reds is not enough to overcome the gap; even if the Reds repeat the same season, the Cards gain of +5 would still leave them only with 93 wins (6 GB). There will be a battle for first place, and a close battle for third place. The Cubs appear to be the bottom feeder by a wide margin.
