After the season, the Cubs can only protect 40 players on their off-season roster (in addition to the younger minor league prospects not subject to the Rule 5 draft).
The Cubs current 40 man roster is as follows:
Pitchers: (24)
Jake Arrieta
Scott Baker DL
Michael Bowden
Alberto Cabrera
Rafael Dolis DL
Kyuji Fujikawa
Kevin Gregg
Justin Grimm
Matt Guerrier DL
Edwin Jackson
Trey McNutt
Blake Parker
Zach Putnam DL
Brooks Raley
Neil Ramirez
Hector Rondon
Chris Rusin
James Russell
Jeff Samardzija
Eduardo Sanchez
Pedro Strop
Carlos Villanueva
Arodys Vizcaino DL
Travis Wood
Catchers: (3)
JC Boscan
Wellington Castillo
Dioner Navarro
Infielders: (10)
Darwin Barney
Starlin Castro
Donnie Murphy
Mike Olt
Cody Ransom
Anthony Rizzo
Luis Valbuena DL
Christian Villanueva
Josh Vitters
Logan Watkins
Outfielders: (11)
Brian Bogusevic
Cole Gillespie
Brett Jackson
Junior Lake
Darnell McDonald
Thomas Neal DL
Dave Sappelt
Nate Schierholtz
Jorge Soler
Ryan Sweeney DL
Matt Szczur
The Cubs currently have 48 players under control due to the those on injured reserve. There will be some movement to protect their top five or so Rule 5 minor league players, so the Cubs at a minimum will need to pare 13 players off the 40 man roster.
A few will fall off by their own accord as FAs: Baker, Gregg, Navarro.
A few more will drop off by virtue of their age and career status: Boscan, McDonald, Guerrier.
A few more will probably drop off because they have fallen out of favor with the front office (deemed no longer key prospects): Dolis, McNutt, Vitters, B. Jackson, Sappelt, Scuzur.
Then there are the journeymen who have no foundational future with the Cubs: Ransom, Gillespie, Neal.
That are 15 cuts right off the top.
That leaves the 2014 Cubs "core" as:
Pitchers: (19)
Jake Arrieta
Michael Bowden
Alberto Cabrera
Kyuji Fujikawa
Justin Grimm
Edwin Jackson
Blake Parker
Zach Putnam DL
Brooks Raley
Neil Ramirez
Hector Rondon
Chris Rusin
James Russell
Jeff Samardzija
Eduardo Sanchez
Pedro Strop
Carlos Villanueva
Arodys Vizcaino DL
Travis Wood
Catchers: (1)
Wellington Castillo
Infielders: (8)
Darwin Barney
Starlin Castro
Donnie Murphy
Mike Olt
Anthony Rizzo
Luis Valbuena DL
Christian Villanueva
Logan Watkins
Outfielders: (5)
Brian Bogusevic
Junior Lake
Nate Schierholtz
Jorge Soler
Ryan Sweeney DL
33 players leaves 7 promotions/acquisitions during the off season.
The 2014 rotation would seem to be Samardzija, T. Wood (LHP), E. Jackson, Arrieta, Rusin (LHP)
Grimm, Carlos Villanueva and injured Arodys Vizcaino are possible starters as well.
The 2014 infield would seem to be set, too. 1B: Rizzo, 2B: Barney, SS: Castro, 3B: Murphy (or Olt if he gets his act together in the minors).
The 2014 outfield seems to be another sore spot. LF: Sweeney or Bogusevic, CF: Lake, RF: Schierholtz. Lake may have a sophomore slump and the rest appear to be journeymen bench players since Soler will not be up next year.
It is interesting to note that the 2014 line up players do not seem to have a lot of post-season trade value which in a backhanded complimentary way, solidifies their roles for the 2014 Cubs. It is also my opinion that the Cubs will not be active in the free agent market due to two circumstances: the payroll budget will continue to be forced down and that Ricketts will want to conserve funds to pay for his massive real estate development projects.
As for potential prospects being added to the 40 man this winter to protect them from Rule 5 draft, the top five are probably:
INF Arismendy Alcantara (#8 prospect),
Gioskar Amaya (#20),
SP Eric Jokisch, LHP
(threw a no hitter this season), Dae-Eun Rhee (24 year old AA pitcher)
OF Jae-Hon Ha (#16)
The players subject to Rule 5 loss include Casey Coleman, Lendy Castillo and Gerardo Concepcion.
This would leave the Cubs approximately two open spots to a) make another Rule 5 draft selection of their own - - - which have not been overwhelming so far or b) sign another rehabbing former major league pitcher with the hopes of flipping him for prospects at the 2014 trade deadline. Either option is not very appealing because it would signal that the Cubs plan to continue to mediocre roster plan for 2014 that has been in place in 2012 and 2013.
