This week there has been a heated discussion in regard to the direction of the Cubs.
Many local sportswriters believe strongly in the plan Theo Epstein has laid out. It is a complete rebuild of the minor league system to add depth within the organization. When the system begins producing major league talent, it has a sustainable infrastructure in place to continue adding talent to the Cubs year after year.
This is a small market philosophy. The supporters acknowledge that this has never been done before in a major market team (unless you go back to the days of the Philadelphia A's who only fielded a farm team in the late teens and early 1920s).
This strategy has several diverse moving parts. First, it takes time to restock an entire farm system of four levels of teams (rookie, A, AA, and AAA). Second, it takes overachieving scouting department to draft and sign an inventory of quality prospects. Third, it takes a significant commitment of resources to develop talent at the minor league levels with the best managers, pitching coaches, batting coaches and trainers. Fourth, it takes ownership to eat several years of operating losses.
On the opposite side of the discussion are vocal critics. They believe that Cub fans have been sold a bill of worthless promises. That this whole idea of being patient and "we have a plan" is a scam. There is evidence that management is diverting its resources away from the major league ball club in order to chase a hunch that they can develop an entire roster of quality impact players. The Cubs payroll under Ricketts has decreased from $145 million to a projected $74.5 million for 2014. Next year's payroll could be reduced further if in the off-season the Cubs trade veterans for more prospects.
The team is horrible. It is not competitive. Fans are forced to pay high ticket prices for a AAA product. Critics claim why should the fans "be patient" when the Cubs job is to field a competitive team year after year. They remember when Ricketts bought the team he said the Cubs were only "one or two players away." That the sole goal was to win championships. But nothing in the past two years shows any major focus on the major league roster. It is a patchwork of injured pitchers on rehab and discarded journeymen.
Critics also stress that Epstein's M.O. in Boston was to pave over mistakes by spending a load of cash. Epstein's system of overspending was eliminated under the new CBA. So he has gone out and overspent on international players this year, to a tune of a 100% tax penalty and a restriction of only a $250,000 signing bonus for the next two years. Some may say that Epstein blew the bank on signing 16, 17 and 18 year old Latin players with little track record because they were ranked highly in scouting service lists. But at best, only 1 in 10 prospects will ever make a major league team. Only 1 in 20 will become an impact All-Star player. So when the Cubs state they have spent more than $20 million on new talent, that is true, but the reality is that the team may only produce one quality player from this year's signees.
The same is true with the amateur draft picks. The Cubs continue to draft a boatload pitchers, but they wind up in the low minors for years. In the best prospect lists of BA or MLB, despite the Cubs drafting so many pitchers, none make the Top 10. Epstein is hoarding and protecting his selections in the low minors for a reason. The reason is that he is trying to buy time by not promoting them or putting artificial thresholds like 500 AB in AAA. If the prospect does not get to the majors (and fails) then he is still considered a prospect and the plan slowly moves forward. A player should be promoted immediately when he excels at that minor league talent level. Baez is the only example of pushing his way up the organizational ladder because of his insane offensive HR production. Lake was a fluke call-up because of the injuries to all the Cubs bargain bin outfielders. What surprised everyone was Lake's enthusiasm and offensive production. Yes, he is a free swinger just like Castro was in his rookie season. He is playing out of position so there will be defensive concerns just like
Castro in his rookie season. Critics think Lake does not fit into the long term plans of the Cubs because he is not an Epstein-Hoyer "pick" or prospect.
Critics also seem concerned about the quality of player coming back in Cub trades. Olt was once considered the Rangers best prospect until he was hit on the head and suffered concussion/vision problems. But the Cubs took Olt in the Garza trade. Olt has struggled in Iowa. Likewise, the bullpen arms acquired in trades have erratic fastballs and control issues.
Critics also think the front office has been reaching too much in second/third tier free agents. Scott Baker was signed for a $5.5 million deal even though he was coming off Tommy John surgery. Baker's rehab hit another set back this week so this signing seems to be a total bust. The Edwin Jackson signing for $52 million still puzzles most Cub fans. If the Cubs were in rebuilding mode, why spend so much money on a .500 pitcher? The only reason for that panic move was that season ticket sales were falling and ownership wanted some public relations story to stem some red ink.
Also, cynics believes ownership sole goal the last few years has been to redevelop the ball park. A bad Cub team, a crumbling infrastructure, and the need for new revenue streams are "the reasons" the Ricketts went all-in on a massive real estate redevelopment plan. But the Cubs management refused to answer sportswriters questions on if or when the Cubs team would be receiving the benefits of these new revenue streams. The reason is simple: the Cubs won't be the beneficiaries of these new properties. It is a classic misdirection. Wrigley Field is not owned by the Cubs, but by a separate company. The Cubs are only a tenant. Ricketts separate company will be fronting the money to redo Wrigley, and it will take those new income streams to pay back new construction debt. This Wrigley Field landlord wants the place to become a year round entertainment venue not just a baseball field. Further, the parking facility is owned by a different company; the triangle parcel is owned by a separate company; and the McDonald's block is owned by a separate LLC. No real money will be trickling down to the Cubs from those entities. The Cubs will have to sink or swim from now on from the baseball operations such as ticket sales, concessions, and broadcast rights fees (which start to turn in 2014 and 2019).
Finally, the critics take issue with the Epstein reasoning that the Cubs have to be built from the minors. Critics state that there is no reason why the Cubs could have a two plan attack: draft and develop prospects and sign quality free agents for the major league roster. This two-prong approach is how other major market teams like the Red Sox and Yankees operate. By relying solely on the prospect model, the Cubs could turn into Kansas City - - - mediocre for a long time because even though the system produces a lot of prospects, none have any real impact at the major league level (the AAAA player curse). Opponents don't trust Epstein's talent evaluation or development track record as a general manager. And the concern is justified when management refuses to say when the Cubs plan will be completed and a championship caliber team will take the field.
There were a third class of fans who decided to take a "wait and see" attitude with the new Cubs front office. They were told that the boy geniuses had a plan so they decided they would be patient and let them do their jobs. Yes, the Cubs would take a hit for a few seasons but that sacrifice would be worth it in the long run. But as each season passes with little movement at the major league quality level or promotion of hot prospects in the minors, offset with more trades for more prospects, these "wait and see" fans will start to gravitate toward one side of the debate spectrum.
