Players who did not accept a team's qualifying offer are now free agents.
All 13 players turned down those offers of a
one-year $14.1 million deal — a value determined by the average of the
top 125 contracts, up from $13.3 million last year — making them free to
negotiate with any team. Any team signing one of these 13 free agents will cost their club a first-round
draft pick, unless that pick would be among the top 10 in the upcoming
amateur draft, in which case those teams will lose a second-round pick.
The threat of a lost pick can deter some
teams from getting involved, particularly when it comes to players more
likely to sign short-term deals. However, those team who gave players a qualifying offer that was not accepted, are probably in line to recoup a lost draft if they sign a different top free agent. The Yankees and Red Sox made
qualifying offers to three players, and appear likely to lose at least
one, meaning that the sandwich-round pick they’ll receive between the
first and second rounds will help offset whatever draft pick they might
lose.
Here are the players subject to a draft pick forfeiture:
Carlos Beltran, RF
2013: Cardinals, .296/.339/.491, 24 HR, 2.4 WAR
2014 age: 37
Both the Red Sox and Yankees are said to be interested, but Boston
has no room at DH given the presence of Ortiz and would have to play him
in left field because Jackie Bradley Jr. is ready to take over in center
and Shane Victorino is established in right. New York is awash in
ancient outfielders — Alfonso Soriano, Ichiro Suzuki and Vernon Wells
are all under contract — and has other significant needs that would be
more worth sacrificing a first-round pick for (such as Brian McCann at
catcher or Ubaldo Jimenez for the rotation).
Robinson Cano, 2B
2013:Yankees, .314/.383/.516, 27 HR, 7.6 WAR
2014 age: 31
Cano's new agent wanted a 10 year, $300 million deal. But that is now out of the question, especially since the one potential suitor, the Dodgers, filled their second base needs by signing a Cuban defector.
Shin-Soo Choo, RF
2013: Reds, .285/.423/.462, 21 HR, 20 SB, 4.2 WAR
2014 age: 31
Choo hits the market after setting career highs in walks (112),
hit-by-pitches (26) and on-base percentage, and is looking for is something north of $18 million per year. The Mets, Yankees and Mariners and possibly the Reds are interested in Choo.
Nelson Cruz, Rangers
2013: .266/.327/.506, 27 HR, 2.0 WAR
2014 age: 33
A 50-game PED suspension cost Cruz significantly in terms of counting
stats, and he’s a liability defensively. Even so, he’s a mid-lineup
option who will get a substantial multiyear deal, around a three-year, $39 million contract last year than
with Werth money. Teams in the mix include his former club the Rangers or the Mariners.
Stephen Drew, Red Sox
2013: .253/.333/.443, 13 HR, 3.1 WAR,
2014 age: 31
There are several teams in need of a quality shortstop, including the Cardinals and Pirates, but those teams are likely to guard against losing a draft pick. The Red Sox (who would presumably keep Xander Bogaerts at
third base and trade Will Middlebrooks), could look to re-sign him, or on the outside, the Mets are another possibility.
Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox
2013: .298/.355/.426, 9 HR, 52 SB, 5.8 WAR
2014 age: 30
Around Chicago, Ellsbury has been the buzz free agent for both sides of town. However, he is prone to injury. Boston will move on with a rookie in his place, so he will land with a new team for 2014. The Mariners, Rangers, Mets and Nationals top the list of rumored suitors, with the latter open to Denard Span if they sign Ellsbury.
Curtis Granderson, Yankees
2013: .229/.317/.407, 7 HR, 1.1 WAR
2014 age: 33
Granderson has been clued into White Sox talk, as a quality local guy with good clubhouse leadership skills. Last season he was limited
to 61 games due to a pair of hit-by-pitch-induced fractures, the first
of which cost him virtually all of the exhibition season and the second
of which required midseason surgery. He ranks well below Ellsbury, Choo and Beltran
in terms of both desirability and cost. A team that loses out on Beltran, Ellsbury or Choo may find Granderson the last alternative to fill a corner outfield need.
Ubaldo Jimenez, Indians
2013: 3.30 ERA, 9.6 K/9, 2.7 WAR in 182 2/3 IP
2014 age: 30
The Indians tried to re-sign their free agents in order to keep their competitive squad together. However, workhorse starting pitchers are hard to come by. Jimenez ranked fourth in the American League in strikeout rate and
10th in ERA. Still, his lost 2011 and ’12 (365 innings with a 5.03 ERA)
may scare off suitors when it comes to a long-term deal, particularly
given the drag of draft pick compensation. However, as Edwin Jackson
showed with the Cubs last year, it only takes one team to offer
something like four years and $48 million to a durable but erratic
hurler who retains some upside. The Yankees may look at Jimenez even if
they do sign Japan’s Masahiro Tanaka, while the Royals and Orioles are
among those who could consider him as well.
Hiroki Kuroda, Yankees
2013: 3.31 ERA, 6.7 K/9, 4.1 WAR in 201 1/3 IP
2014 age: 39
Age may have come down on Kuroda, who was stellar for three-quarters of the season, with a 2.33
ERA and 17 quality starts out of 24 turns through Aug. 12, but then he fell off a cliff with an ERA more than 6.56 ERA over his final eight outings. He is a candidate for
one-year deal of slightly higher value than the qualifying offer,
meaning that he makes far more sense for the Yankees than for another
team unless they can offset the lost pick.
Brian McCann, Braves
2013: .256/.336/.461, 20 HR, 2.2 WAR
2014 age: 30
He’s the top catcher on the market, likely to wind up with a
contract in the $75-100 million range via the Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers
or Angels. That estimated price tag makes a return to Atlanta seem
unlikely. McCann has a history of injury problems, so an AL destination would be smart choice given that he
could keep his bat in the lineup for another 20-30 games per season as a
DH.
Kendrys Morales, Mariners
2013: .277/.336/.449, 23 HR, 2.7 WAR
2014 age: 31
The switch-hitting Morales played in a career-high 156 games in 2013
and showed a much more even platoon split than in recent years, though
it’s inaccurate to say that Safeco Field had a significant impact on his
performance given his splits (.282/.339/.472 at home, .272/.339/.425 on
the road). Given just 61 games in the field over the past two years,
he’s mostly a DH option, but contenders such as the Orioles, Rangers and
Rays have openings at that spot. Still, the draft pick compensation
matter could loom large, raising the likelihood that he stays in Seattle
via a multiyear deal.
Mike Napoli, Red Sox
2013: .259/.360/.482, 23 HR, 4.1 WAR
2014 age: 32
The degenerative hip condition may keep some teams at bay. His preference is to return to Boston, but
going back to Texas, where he played from 2011-12, is among his other
options.
Ervin Santana, Royals
2013: 3.24 ERA, 6.9 K/9, 2.9 WAR in 211 IP
2014 age: 31
Santana had one of those "contract year" performances. Some teams may question whether he is the real deal long term. He’s in line for a multiyear deal in the $80
million range, but his career 1.2 homers per nine has scared the Yankees
off. The AL East may be a bad idea for him in general, though the Blue
Jays might be the team willing to pay him the most.
