With Arismendy Alcantara (2B/SS), Dallas Beeler (RHP) added to the Cubs 40 man roster, the Cubs have one opening to fill if management chooses to do so.
In the past seasons, the Cubs have selected an unprotected player from other teams in the Rule 5 draft at the Winter Meetings. Remember Lendy Castillo? Or Hector Rondon? Those young pitchers had a live arm, but were hidden in the bullpen for a full season. That is because in order to keep a selection, the player must be on the active roster for the entire year, or he gets sent back to his original club.
It is a process where some teams can cherry pick and upgrade their overall minor league prospect pipeline by selecting a player from another team. It only costs $50,000, as well as that roster spot. It is a low risk strategy, if you don't have better talent in the wings at AAA.
The Cubs have the 4th choice in the Rule 5 draft. Most expect the Cubs to use that selection to draft a player. Whether they keep the player is another matter, as the team has immediately traded selections to another team. Most assume the Cubs will make a selection, and the easiest place to hide one on the roster is in the bullpen.
Baseball America does an excellent job at covering amateur and minor league prospects. BA has created a list of potential Rule 5 picks (with my comments):
Junior Arias, of, Reds: Like many potential Rule 5 picks,
Arias only fits on a team that is building for the future. Arias has yet
to have an at-bat above Class A and he spent much of last year in low
Class A Dayton. His bat is in no way ready to actually help a big league
club in 2014. If he is on a major league roster, he would be limited as a
pinch-runner, late-inning defensive replacement and even an occasional
pinch-hit appearance because of his power.
Danny Burawa, rhp, Yankees: After missing 2012 with a torn
oblique and a cracked rib, Burawa finally made his Double-A debut last
season. He sported a fastball that sat in the 92-97 mph range and sat
comfortably at 95 on most nights while featuring average sink. He
couples that with an inconsistent, sweepy, 83-86 mph slider that he
tends to cast and a show-me changeup that sits between 83-87 mph. He could be a player a team could stash in the bullpen for a year, as the Cubs have done in the past.
Darrell Ceciliani, of, Mets: The 23-year-old bats lefthanded and has a full season of
experience at Double-A Binghamton, where he ranked second in the Eastern
League with 31 stolen bases. Scouts project Ceciliani to have three
average tools: hitting, running and fielding, and while his walk rate
dried up at Double-A, he did hit .276/.328/.390 versus righthanders and
could be a functional extra outfielder. A fifth outfielder candidate with just average skills leaping AAA would be a reach.
Brody Colvin, rhp, Phillies: Once the top pitching prospect in
the Phillies’ organization, Colvin’s career has been been on a decline
the past two seasons. His control has fallen apart; his once well-above-average fastball now sits 90-92. Colvin’s lack of control would make it hard for a team to use him in
anything more than mop-up situations right now. A team who thinks they
can fix his mechanical problems could take a chance on him. The Cubs have often seen fallen players as an opportunity to strike gold with a turnaround.
Jose De Paula, lhp, Padres: If not for a bout of shoulder
tendinitis that sidelined him at Double-A San Antonio from mid-June to
the end of the season, De Paula probably would have stayed on the 40-man
roster and thus not be eligible for selection. That’s because he’s the
rare pitcher from the Dominican Republic who throws lefthanded, pounds
the strike zone (career walk rate of 2.2 per nine innings) and has
natural feel to spin a curveball. The 23-year-old De Paula pitches at
89-91 mph with an easy arm action and the potential for three average
pitches, plus he can start or relieve as needed.
This is an interesting player because of the Hoyer-San Diego connection. There will be turnover in the Cubs bullpen this season, and if the Cubs think Russell has burned out, this could be the Cubs selection.
Brian Fletcher, of/1b, Royals: Fletcher has been on the back
end of the Royals’ Top 30 prospects list in both 2011 and 2012 thanks to
his power potential. He hit well in a return to Double-A Northwest
Arkansas, although he slumped after a midseason promotion to Triple-A
Omaha.
He swings and misses too much and doesn’t walk
as much as teams would like. He has some position versatility, but he’s
his well below average speed limits his range in the outfield and he has
only limited experience at first base.
Mike Freeman, 2b/util, Diamondbacks: Freeman hit
just .247 this year, and the 26-year-old doesn’t have the pop to be an
everyday player for a championship-caliber team. He does fit the utility
profile well, however. He bats lefthanded; he draws walks (65 with
Double-A Mobile this season); he can fill in at shortstop in a pinch and
played second base (his best fit), third base and left field in the
Arizona Fall League. The Cubs also collect replacement level utility players like kids collect baseball cards, but there seems to be little upside here.
Jae-Hoon Ha, of, Cubs: Although he’s an average to tick-above
average runner, he plays a very solid center field because he gets good
jumps. He has enough arm strength to play right field as well.
Ha doesn’t have much power, but at his best the lefthanded hitter can
draw some walks and get on base. He doesn’t profile as more than a
backup outfielder long-term. He projects to a career fifth outfielder at best with limited tools so this is why the Cubs left him unprotected.
Marcus Hatley, rhp, Cubs: A big (6-foot-5) righthander
with a plus fastball (92-95 mph) that he throws with good downhill
plane and an average slider and curve, Hatley ranked at the back end of
the Cubs’ Top 30 prospects list after the 2011 and 2012 seasons. He
struck out 74 batters in 61 innings between Double-A and Triple-A this
year with adequate control (35 walks) and iffy command. In the Mexican Pacific League,
he’s 1-1, 2.57 with six saves in 14 innings with Culiacan. He’s struck
out 18 and walked only four. In a system where there is lack of pitching assets, the Cubs chose Dallas Beeler to protect over Hatley. It seems BA believes that Hatley can contribute at the major league level in 2014 so I expect some team to select him.
Marco Hernandez, ss, Cubs: Hernandez is a long ways away from
being ready to actually help a big league club, but the switch-hitting
shortstop has a lot of the attributes teams look for in a potential Rule
5 pick. He has defensive value because he can handle shortstop with
range and a plus arm, he’s a tick-above average runner and he has some
hitting potential with a solid swing from both sides of the plate. He is a raw talent whose development would be severely diminished if stashed on a major league bench for a year.
Tommy Kahnle, rhp, Yankees: Similar to Burawa, Kahnle is a
hard-thrower who features premium velocity and spotty command. His heat
ranges between 91-96 mph and sits comfortably in the mid-90s with a
little sink. Another pitcher that may interest the Cubs.
Stephen Kohlscheen, rhp, Mariners: Pitching with an 89-92 mph fastball and a below average breaking ball
and changeup, Kohlscheen went 7-3, 2.30 with 47 hits allowed in 67
innings at Double-A Jackson last year. He struck out 85 and walked 25.
He’s struck out more than 10 batters per nine innings throughout his
minor league career. Kohlscheen’s bigger problem is a tendency to give
up home runs. At 6-foot-6, he’s an imposing presence on the mound, but
his lack of a quality changeup makes him a comfortable at-bat for
lefthanded hitters. There is always a concern about a tall, soft tossing pitcher.
Freddy Lewis, lhp, Yankees: A 47th-round
pick in 2010, Lewis hit 96 as a reliever with the Yankees and sat in the
88-92 mph range while making five spot starts for Double-A Trenton,
with good life down in the zone. Lewis threw well in the Arizona Fall
League as well, tossing 11 scoreless innings and striking out 10, and
showed his durability by tossing 70 innings overall on the year counting
the AFL. His slider remains inconsistent and he throws a fringe-average
changeup, but his attacking mentality helps him be more effective in
2013 against righthanded hitters (.632 OPS) than lefthanded ones (.790
OPS). He appears to be well suited to transition to immediate bullpen work.
Matt Lollis, rhp, Padres: Though he has only one major
league-caliber pitch, Lollis makes it count with a double-plus fastball
he pumps up to 98 mph from a low three-quarters slot. The 6-foot-9,
250-pound behemoth pitched out of the bullpen exclusively in 2013, but
that didn’t seem to help his secondary stuff (slider, changeup) play up,
nor did it add to his deception. This is an interesting choice for bullpen help for the Cubs; a power arm that could possibly be groomed into a closer role.
Matt Loosen, rhp, Cubs: A righthander with an 89-94 mph fastball and a pair of erratic but promising
breaking balls, he has been stuck at a Class A ceiling for several years.
Kevin Munson, rhp, Diamondbacks: He has a plus fastball (91-94) and an
average-to-tick-above-average slider. He doesn’t always hit his spots,
but he does throw strikes and he struck out 66 batters in 55 innings
last season. Possible bullpen material.
Hector Nelo, rhp, Dodgers: Nelo needs to develop a quality
second pitch, but if you’re only going to have one plus pitch, a 95-98
mph fastball is a pretty good solitary pitch. Like Lollis, Nelo has the possibility to help a bullpen and develop into a closer.
Angel Nesbitt, rhp, Tigers: Nesbitt can hit 95-97 mph with his
fastball, but his slurve isn’t very advanced, which explains why he
struck out 54 batters in 67 inning in low Class A. The Tigers took an understandable gamble in leaving Nesbitt exposed,
as unrefined low Class A power arms rarely can stick on a new team, even
if they are picked. Cubs righthander Starling Peralta from last year’s
Rule 5 draft is an example of that. But a team may take a chance on
adding a righthander with potential long-term setup or closer potential. It is extremely hard for a pitcher to jump from Class A to the majors and to have success.
Carlos Perez, c, Astros: Perez passed through the Rule 5 draft
last year, but there’s a greater chance someone might roll the dice on
him this time. Perez could be a fit for a rebuilding team with an
established everyday catcher. Perez, who turned 23 last month, is a dependable catcher who moves well
behind the plate, blocks well and earns praise for how he handles a
pitching staff. His arm is average and he gets rid of the ball quickly,
helping him erase an impressive 47 percent of basestealers last year in
Triple-A Oklahoma City. The question scouts have on Perez is his offense. His bat speed is
below-average, he has minimal power and his swing can get long. But
Perez doesn’t swing and miss much and he controls the strike zone, which
helped him hit a respectable .269/.328/.345 with 25 walks and 39
strikeouts in 75 games in Triple-A. BA thinks that the White Sox who pick one slot above the Cubs could select Perez. The Cubs also have a real need for a back up catcher, too.
Boone Whiting, rhp, Cardinals: Smallish at 6-foot-1, 175
pounds, Whiting is a fly-ball pitcher who lacks plane on his fastball
and doesn’t overpower hitters. His competitiveness, command, athleticism
and feel for three average pitches helps him miss bats, as he has a
career 9.31 SO/9 IP ratio. Whiting’s fastball sits in the 88-92 mph
range and touches 93, and he locates it well. His changeup earns some
above-average grades and is his best pitch. He needs to play in a pitcher's park, which Wrigley and the Cell are not.
