November 25, 2013

TOO GOOD

Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano is the best player available this off-season. No one will question that statement. His new agent, Jay-Z, is demanding a 10 year, $300 million deal for his client.

The Yankees recently said that they were not going to wait for Cano and his representatives to wake up to the reality of the new baseball model. The Yankees will explore alternatives to fill the second base position.

Likewise, the Dodgers quickly got out of the second base market by signing a touted Cuban defector, Alexander Guerrero, to a much more affordable $30 million deal.

In order for any agent to pump up his client's value, he needs to have two bidders in the process. Some agents have been daft to create a "ghost" second team to have one interested club bid against itself (as the Rangers did when they first signed A-Rod). But most front offices have enough street sense to not stumble on that ploy.

In addition, baseball clubs have become more realistic with their baseball payrolls. They have taken both the short term and long term view on player salaries. Owners are more wary about long term, dead money deals for veteran players nearing the end of their productive years. This may be a side effect of the steroid era, where 35 year old players put up numbers of 26 year old All Stars in years past. 

If Cano is convinced he is worth $300 million, he will sit alone for a long time. There is no general manager in the game that has come out and said that Cano was worth that much money. And the longer Cano sits on his roost, the less likely there will be an 11th hour mystery bidder for his services.

Cano wants the Yankees to re-sign him. The Yankees are trying to cut payroll to get under the luxury tax. The Yankees are also an old team that needs to rebuild with younger players. It may be time to evaporate the Jeter-Cano double play combination.

Are there any real alternatives for Cano? His representatives want to meet with the Mets, another big market team. But the Mets still may have a Madoff hangover, the financial constraints of ownership placing millions in a pyramid scheme. The Mets had tried to sell minority stakes in the team to raise capital. It is doubtful that the team would commit $300 million on one player if it cannot raise that type of money in an equity sale.

The Angels are another big money spender, but the owner has to be concerned that last season's two big agent signings turned into megaflops. The Angels have a huge payroll and injured stars like Pujols. The Angels seem uninterested in going back to the big time free agent well.

The Rangers are another team not afraid to make big money deals like the Yu Darvish signing. But the Rangers have a surplus of quality middle infielders so Cano does not fit a need. The Rangers are probably more interested in spending money on starting pitching than infielders.

The Phillies were another big spender, but after a couple of weak seasons, they have cooled their jets. They signed Marlon Byrd and re-signed their catcher, Carlos Ruiz. Besides, the Phils still have Chase Utley at second base.

Hernan Perez and Danny Worth are the second base depth chart for the Tigers. The Tigers have given big contracts to their starting pitchers, Cabrera and Fielder, but it is not clear that ownership is willing to spend $300 million on Cano. The Tigers would rather spend money to keep Scherzer or add a third baseman to the lineup to move Cabrera to DH.

So there are very few landing spots for Cano in big market, big payroll teams. Unless he is willing to take an offer from a second tier ball club (say, a Toronto, Seattle, or a Cleveland) at a discount, he may lose money by sitting on the sidelines.