In a luke warm hot stove season in Chicago, the talk continues around whether the Cubs will trade Jeff Samardzija or try to sign him to an extension.
Now, many fans and the media believe that the Shark is the best pitcher on the Cubs staff; their "ace." However, Samardzija is not a dominant ace pitcher by any measure of performance. He may be the best starter on the Cubs squad, but that does not make him an "ace."
In fact, many other teams believe Samardzija would be a number 3 or number 4 starter in most rotations. Getting paid #1 money for being a #3.5 pitcher is the sticking point. The Cubs tremendously overpaid for Edwin Jackson, and if Samardzija is looking for a $52 million deal from the Cubs it is doubtful the front office would be that careless, again.
To get out of the vacuum that is a bad Cubs team, there is a local comparison which should shed some light on the Samardzija value situation.
Samardzija is 28 years old. He has been in the majors for 6 seasons. His career stats are: 29-35, 4.19 ERA, 1.335 WHIP, 8.6 K/9IP, 2.29 K/BB ratio and 3.1 career WAR. As you can tell, Samardzija has struggled along with the Cubs to be even a .500 pitcher.
A quick mental comparison would be to ex-White Sox starter Galvin Floyd. Floyd did not play much last season due to injuries. But people would be surprised by Floyd's 10 year career stats:
70-70, 4.48 ERA, 1.338 WHIP, 7.1/K/9IP, 2.32 K/BB ratio, and 15.3 career WAR.
If one just compares the average seasonal WAR:
Samardzija: 0.517
Floyd: 1.530
Floyd has almost three times better average seasonal WAR than Samardzija.
Almost every breathing, conscious person in the baseball universe would not consider Floyd as an "ace" pitcher. He falls into that #4/#5 starter category where he was used for most of his career. In contrast, Samardzija used to be in that role until the Cubs started trading away better pitchers (Dempster, Garza, Maholm) for prospects. It pushed Samardzija to the top of the rotation by default.
Now, most people realize that it does not matter if you are a #1 starter or a #5 starter - - - pitching is still throwing the ball toward home plate for strikes and outs. Pitchers have an advantage over hitters so their statistics are more accurate, especially over the long term. So instead of comparing Samardzija to other #1 starters on other teams, it is more valuable to look at a real comparable like Floyd.
