Masahiro Tanaka is the buzz of the off-season. The media believes the Cubs will push hard to sign Tanaka. Except, such a signing goes against everything we heard about The Plan.
1. Yes, Tanaka has the potential to be a Number 1 starter in the majors. However, there are several scouts who believe that Yu Darvish was a better pitcher when he signed with the Rangers. Tanaka is actually looking to surpass the Darvish contract cost, even though the posting fee is capped at $20 million. The Cubs have stressed building the minor league system as the foundation for long term success. To sign a high priced free agent to a long term contract (5 to 6 years) is a real gamble.
2. There is always a question of the transition foreign players have when they come to America. Less than 6 percent of international free agents become major league ball players. Even the most major league ready players can struggle (example, Starlin Castro). So there is no guarantee that an international player will be an impact player. The only guarantee is the amount of money in the player's contract.
3. The finances do not make sense. The Cubs have stalled on their rebuilding plans because of myriad of excuses such as the threat of a rooftop owner lawsuit. Some people are considering the possibility that the Cubs are not as financially sound as fans think a big market team would be in 2013. The team wants to double its local broadcast license fees, but the one outlet, WGN, is balking at any increase. The Cubs overspent on the draft and international player pool last year, perhaps in anticipation that new revenue streams would be online by now. But they are not. Payroll has dropped for the past 4 years, and it is expected to continue that trend in 2014.
4. Big contracts tend to create big headaches. The Cubs are just unwinding the Soriano dead money deal. Why get out from under that contract yoke to sign another new one, with a pitcher no less. Fans have been critical of the Edwin Jackson $54 million deal, which again came out of no where and was not part of rebuilding strategy. It was a knee jerk reaction to losing out on A. Sanchez. The signing of Tanaka would be effectively putting 20 percent of your payroll into one player who may get 33 starts per season.
5. A big splash on Tanaka means that the organization is signaling that it may not be able to draft and develop major league pitching talent. The Cubs have drafted a wagon load of pitchers the past two seasons, and none are on the radar for the Cubs roster. In fact, the only drafted and developed starter is Jeff Samardzija, whose own contract status is in limbo. If the organization cannot develop its own core pitchers, then it will have to overspend on free agents to make up the talent gap. But star pitchers tend to be overpaid, and subject to more injuries than positional players. That is why the White Sox have a philosophy of never signing a pitcher to more than a 4 year deal.
6. There is also the heavy burden that managers, coaches and players talk about AFTER they leave the Cubs. There is a heavy expectation to outperform because of the historic losing streak of the franchise. Players may not believe in the curse, but there is a crushing difference in playing for the Cubs than other teams. Lou Piniella called it a different kind of pressure that got to him so badly that he quit. How a Japanese player with a language barrier in a large city is going to cope with all the sideshow circus expectations is a difficult question. Kosuke Fukudome never lived up to his expectations when he was a Cub.
7. The Cubs roster is not built to win now. Tanaka will have the choice of many franchises that are currently built to win now, such as the Yankees, Angels, Dodgers or Red Sox. Talented pitchers on a losing team tend to get frustrated - - - as Samardzija has beefed about the last two seasons. Tanaka is not going to go 24-0, 1.20 ERA with the Cubs in 2014. The reality of being smothered into being a .500 pitcher because of the bad team around you can tend to make pitchers lose concentration, focus and the desire to win. Then, you may not be able to move a high priced .500 pitcher in the future.
Tanaka may become a quality starting pitcher. However, he really does not fit into the short term plan for the Cubs.
