Jon Lester has made three starts for the Cubs. Based upon projections, that is about 10 percent of his expected starts for 2015.
PERCOTA estimated Lester's Cub season as follows:
26 Games started
11-9 record
3.62 ERA
182.0 IP
155 H
1.14 WHIP
After 3 games with the Cubs:
0-2 record
6.89 ERA
15.2 IP
24 H
1.79 WHIP
PERCOTA had Lester allowing .85 hits/IP. Currently, Lester is allowing 1.53 hits/IP which is 80 percent more than projected by the stat service.
Control is also an issue. His current WHIP is 57 percent higher than PERCOTA.
It cannot be a difference in the leagues, since MLB no longer has separate umpire crews for the AL and NL (for a more consistent strike zone). The National League should be easier since there is no DH. There have been a few excuses that Lester's "dead" arm in spring training was no big deal, but clearly the idea that Lester needed one or two games in order to "finish" his spring training during the season is problematic. When one adds the national story on how Lester can't throw to first base, one has to wonder whether the big contract, control issues and comic jabs are going to negatively affect him. In order for Lester to come back to be even an average pitcher (.500 record, 4.00 ERA, 1.30 WHIP), he will need to throw three "lights out" games.
