Those who praise Theo Epstein's plan for long term success of the Cubs believe the decision to send Kris Bryant to the minors for 12 games in order to keep him under control for another full contract season is a no-brainer.
Yes, the current collective bargaining agreement harshly defines service time and club control of players. Yes, it makes sense to keep Bryant for a 7th year during his projected peak production years.
Yes, no matter what Epstein and the front office says, sending Bryant down was purely "a business decision."
Own it.
Instead, the Cubs use excuses that Bryant needs some final development. It could be adjusting to the outfield (but if that was so, he could have played more than one game in LF during spring training) or resting his sore shoulder (that is what the DL is for).
Owner Tom Ricketts has said time and time again to fans that money would be no object in fielding a championship caliber team. The Cubs went out and spent $155 million on pitcher Jon Lester, who happens to be nursing a dead arm. The Cubs still owe Edwin Jackson $26 million in dead money. So if the Cubs truly believe money is no issue, then it should not matter what Bryant is worth in Year 7.
Own it. Pay it.
Unless of course, you don't want to pay market value to Bryant in Year 7. A small market team would be desperate to keep a star player, a draw, for as long as possible at a 25% discount (last year of arbitration to FMV). People perceive the Cubs as not a small market team, but at times they act like one.
When management says there are only one or two players away from the playoffs, do they really mean what they say? Ricketts said that in Year One and beyond as the team sunk to the bottom of the barrel. But Epstein's plan was to be bad in order to get high draft picks and more signing bonus money. On paper, it is working as the scouting services and writers believe the Cubs have one of the strongest farm systems in the game.
A small market team trades "hope" for fan support. Small market teams must rely on their farm system and prospect player development in order to compete against large market clubs. The Cubs have marketed "hope" for the past three seasons. Fans have being putting up top dollar to see the touted prospects. It is a tease to sell a mega-prospect to season ticket holders, then withhold his debut.
Some seasoned fans are tuned into this drama as the Cubs were advertising last weekend that Opening Night tickets were still available for purchase (as part of 12 game season ticket packages). That in itself is surprising considering the Cubs don't have any bleacher seats available for that game.
Fans really don't care about Bryant's Year 7. If he is good, the Cubs said money was no object.
But there is no guarantee that Bryant will even be a Cub 7 years from now. Or that he will command superstar contract status.
Here is a historical list of the Cubs top prospects:
2015: Bryant, waiting in AAA
2014: Javy Baez, demoted to Iowa
2013: Baez
2012: Brett Jackson, demoted and out of the organization
2011: Chris Archer, traded for Matt Garza, starter for the Rays
2010: Starlin Castro, Cubs starting shortstop
2009: Josh Vitters, demoted and out of the organization
2008: Vitters
2007: Felix Pie, bench journeyman out of the organization
2006: Pie
2005: Brian Dopirak, out of baseball
2004: Angel Guzman, journeyman pitcher who mostly played outside organization
2003: Hee Seop Choi, out of baseball
2002: Mark Prior, injury killed career early
2001: Corey Patterson, bench journeyman out of the organization
2000: Patterson
Bryant's closest comparison is Jackson, who was great in the minors but only had a cup of coffee in the majors (the strikeout ratio at the plate doomed his playing career). Baez is following in Jackson's footsteps. One would hope Bryant would be different. But then, Micah Hoffpauir destroyed minor league pitching in 2008 and 2010 but his Cub career quickly fizzled out after 2.5 seasons.
Whether Bryant is real gold (which the vast majority including myself believe) or fool's gold can only be determined by his actual playing time in the majors. Does he have anything further to learn in the minors? No. Did the Cubs have some reason to keep a valuable asset under control for the longest possible time? Yes. Does control issues matter when you are projecting a fight for a playoff spot this year? No.
Perhaps, the real issue is the Cubs mixed messages to fans. The flames of championship fireworks is what people have latched onto - - - because it is a good story. But the cold water of reality is that there are so many variables and historical evidence that a prospect's resume is no indication of future success that people should be more guarded with their expectations.
But guarded expectations does not sell tickets.
