Baseball America Top 10 draft projections gives us the best insight on the draft.
Industry sources indicate Arizona whittled its list down to three players in the last week: Vanderbilt shortstop Dansby Swanson, Illinois lefthander Tyler Jay and Georgia prep catcher Tyler Stephenson. After his SEC tournament performance, Swanson has separated himself from the college-hitter pack and is the safest bet of the group, but I continue to hear persistent talk the D-backs prefer a college starter. If that holds, they’ll take Jay, but right now the talk is stronger that they’ll take Swanson.
The Astros continue to be connected to college bats with this pick, but if Swanson is gone, that leaves his friendly rival and former USA Baseball teammate, shortstop Alex Bregman of Louisiana State.
The Rockies have been focused heavily on Jay, whom they like as a future starter, and believe they will take Lake Mary (Fla.) High shortstop Brendan Rodgers. The Rockies passed on Evan Longoria in 2006 to take a pitcher (Stanford’s Greg Reynolds), and the organization may not want to make the same mistake. Some believe Rodgers has that kind of offensive upside, and he has a similar setup with his hands. But the bottom line is the Rockies need pitching and they can’t acquire arms like Jay’s on the free-agent market so Jay is picked here.
The Rangers may take Jon Harris of Missouri State here, and he’s still in play. But if Rodgers falls here, it’s a moot point. Selection: Brendan Rodgers, ss, Lake Mary (Fla.) HS
BA thinks prep outfielders will start going off the board with a domino effect. While scouts aren’t 100 percent sure of Daz Cameron as a hitter, he has the best chance of this year’s prep class to stay in center field. The Astros start the movement with Daz Cameron, of, Eagle’s Landing Christian Academy, McDonough, Ga.
Minnesota continues to give the college arms (such as UCLA’s James Karpielian) a look but industry sources still tie the organization to prep outfielders. They’re working out Kyle Tucker this week as it looks increasingly likely that Cameron, their chosen target, will be unavailable. The choice may be Kyle Tucker, of, Plant HS, Tampa
Boston is believed to be mulling three to four candidates, including Bregman and Cameron (both gone in this mock) as well as Vanderbilt ace Carson Fulmer and Arkansas outfielder Andrew Benintendi. Neither performed well in the Southeastern Conference tournament, and neither has a great big league analogue. Fulmer’s high floor and track record are the separating factors. Fulmer seems to be the safe choice here.
The White Sox have struggled with their first round picks (non-pitchers) They’re interested in Fulmer, as they remain in strong consideration for college arms, but the best bets here will wind up being a choice between UC Santa Barbara’s Dillon Tate and Harris. Tate’s stock has tumbled some in recent weeks as his velocity and location on his fastball have backed up, but he has better present stuff than Harris, who is a safer bet to start but has a lower ceiling. BA thinks Tate is the call here.
The Cubs have scouted Benintendi and Kaprielian. BA thinks that Kaprielian may offer the best bet among the college starters, but that his at times pedestrian velocity holds him back for some clubs, as does his perceived price tag. Kaprielian wasn’t as good against Oregon as he had been in recent weeks. His fastball had maintained 92 mph deep into starts in recent weeks (including the no-hitter), but in his last outing his fastball dipped to 88-90 by the fifth inning, but he has a track record of performance and a strong feel for using his above-average secondary stuff. He seems to be the Cubs choice.
With the 10th pick, The Phillies could take Kaprielian if he’s there but are said not to favor Harris, who lacks present physicality. Instead they’re tied more to upside prep bats such as the outfield class and Tyler Stephenson. c, Kennesaw Mountain (Ga.) HS
I would not be surprised if the Cubs took Stephenson, the high school catcher, at #9 if the plan really is to move Kyle Schwarber to the outfield.
I do believe the White Sox are in need of right handed starting pitching, and a college starter from a major program is what the organization needs to balance the rotation.
