June 27, 2015

WHAT TO DO

Joe Maddon, the optimist, is not shy on telling the press (and the fans) where he stands on his club. He is a field general who has gotten his young, raw squad marching forward into battle well ahead of expectations.

He  believes Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer will deliver more weapons to him before the July 31 trade deadline.

“I am confident that Theo and Jed and the boys – as long as we’re pertinent – (will) do whatever they can to augment what we’re doing,” Maddon said before Tuesday’s game against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Wrigley Field. “I totally believe that.

“So if it’s a pitcher, it’s going to be a pitcher. Whatever we need, I believe that they will attempt to make it happen.”

So the bandwagoneers are screaming that the Cubs make a big splash, a big trade, because "this is the year."  On paper and in words, this was not supposed to be The Year. It was supposed to be a transition year where Theo's "plan" would start to come together with the next wave of core players being called up to the major league roster. It would still take several seasons for the team to gel. This was the season to find out whether Kris Bryant could play a respectable third base (or have to be moved to the outfield), whether Jorge Soler could adjust to major league pitching, and whether Addison Russell could adapt to a new position.

So what do the Cubs need? More than people realize because this is still not The Year.

In the second game of the Dodger series, the Cubs played a Class AAA outfield (Coghlan, Szczur, Baxter).Yoshi Wada has arm cramps and that puts the team in a rotation hole. The bullpen has not been as good as last season. There is a consistent creep of injuries. There is a lack of bench depth.

But the press and fans want the Cubs to "go for it," because this seems like a great chance to get into the playoffs (then anything could happen). They are stuck on the Back to the Future reference that the Cubs win the World Series in 2015. Fiction.

The reality is that a "win it now" trade could badly backfire. The Cubs should know that well since they were the beneficiary of such a move last season, when the A's sold off the farm to try to win it all.

On July 5, 2014, Samardzija, along with Jason Hammel went to Oakland in exchange for the A's top prospect, Addison Russell, a AAAA pitcher in Dan Straily, and very good outfield prospect in Billy McKinney and cash considerations. 

The A's with the Shark and Hammel could not make a playoff run. In the off season, the A's lost Hammel to free agency and moved Samardzija to the White Sox.  On December 9, 2014 the Athletics traded Samardzija along with another player for shortstop Marcus Semien, Chris Bassitt, Rangel Ravelo and catcher Josh Phegley.  Clearly, the A's did not get the same return for Samardzija that the Cubs did from Oakland.

To get a big fish like Cole Hamels, the Cubs would have to mortgage their farm system with probably three or four players going to Philadelphia. But does Hamels make the Cubs a contender? Not this season. Maybe not next season. One can keep their best prospects and wait for the next free agent period and upgrade the rotation with a David Price.

So it would not be surprising that the Cubs do nothing by the trade deadline.