BACK UP THE MOVING VAN

 The Cubs 11 game losing streak has changed the team's view of the playoffs and off-season programs.

The remaining core and recent additions are pending free agents: Bryant, Baez, Rizzo, Pedersen. Kimbrel and Contreras have one more year of potential control. 

With the CBA expiring at the end of the season, there is great uncertainty on what will happen to the free agent market and whether the FA compensation rules will change. Currenty, only those who turn down the one-year qualifying offer from their clubs will have compensation attached to them. Those offers must be made by the club within the first five full days after the World Series ends, and players then have 10 days to accept or decline the offer, during which time they can negotiate with other teams

Under the current rules, if the team that loses the free agent is a revenue-sharing recipient, based on its revenues and market size, then the selection -- if and only if the lost player signs for at least $50 million -- will be awarded a pick between the first round and Competitive Balance Round A of the 2019 MLB Draft. If the player signs for less than $50 million, the compensation pick for those teams would come after Competitive Balance Round B, which follows the second round.

The following 16 teams currently qualify for these picks: A's, Braves, Brewers, D-backs, Indians, Mariners, Marlins, Orioles, Padres, Pirates, Rays, Reds, Rockies, Royals, Tigers and Twins.

If the team that loses the player does not receive revenue sharing and did not exceed the luxury-tax salary threshold the previous season, its compensatory pick will come after Competitive Balance Round B. The value of the player's contract doesn't matter in this case. The 12 clubs that fall into this category are the Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Phillies, Rangers, White Sox and Yankees.

The Cubs have several options with their pending free agents:

1. Keep them through the season. Let the core group have a final swan song together. Then let me go on their merry way.

2. Keep them through the season. Then offer them a qualifying offer (last year was $17.6 million) or even arbitration. If the player rejects the QO, then potential draft compensation may attach. If rejects arbitration, then no draft comp.

3. Try to negotiate an extension with the players. We have only heard crickets this season on any extension talk. With Ricketts claiming poverty and Hoyer trading his best starter in a clear salary dump, ownership has not signaled any willingness to commit large dollars to their old players.

4. Think about trades. If you think your scouting department can pick gems in compensatory rounds (picks from 48 to 100), then waiting to draft someone could be more valuable than trading a rental player for a low minor league prospect. Trading partners this year are highly unlikely to part with any of their Top 15-20 prospects for a two month rental player. Only if two or more teams fight over player will the value rise. 

5. Have a fire sale. Try to squeeze as much value as you can from your current roster. Everybody has a chance to get on the moving van. Trade deadline contenders usually want closers, starters and specialty hitters/defenders to fill in bench role. Kimbrel probably has the most trade value because he has had a solid year. Contreras is probably the second most valuable trade chip. He has one more year of control and is a top NL catcher. A team like the White Sox could use him now. Hendricks has already signed a team friendly extension so I doubt he will be moved but he has as much value as Contreras. Bryant is purely a rental who will hit the FA market. His up and down little injuries year does not help. Unless a contender loses a middle of the line up bat, market interest may be thin for KB. Baez has less market value than Bryant. He is too inconsistent at the plate and lately in the field (14 errors). He has the personality and PR appeal that could help some clubs sell tickets but not at a great trade cost. Pedersen fits into the Schwarber mode (DH more than OF) which limits thinking to AL teams. 

6. Let them test the free agent market, then negotiate a new deal in the wild. It is possible to try to reel back in one of your players. The Cubs did it with pitcher Hamel. But it is rare. And the Cubs would have to dramatically change its small market mind set. Also, free agents want a chance to win now and it is clear the Cubs do not have the organizational depth to field a championship caliber contender in the next few years.

If the Cubs stumble into the All Star break, the fire sale is the most likely option. But look at the Darvish trade as the bitter cough medicine fans will have to swallow. The Cubs received nothing of value in return and only one marginal major leaguer (Davies). At the trade deadline, I would expect only Class A ball players in return for any one except maybe Kimbrel or Contreras. But even then, most teams would rather see how the new CBA financial terms will be set before parting with any of their controllable (i.e. cheap) minor league players. Teams have learned their is more value in developing and promoting their draft choices to keep them for 7 years than trading away good prospects for an illusory chance at the pennant or World Series.

If I were to guess on who will be traded I think Kimbrel, Baez and Bryant are the candidates. I think the team will keep Rizzo to the end of the year because he is still the face of their franchise and the Cub house leader. I think the strong push to eliminate the 2016 team is apparent as the championship has been an actual anchor drag on the team as the players generally did not improve and scouting and operations departments failed to draft and develop their replacements.

MORE COLE IN YOUR STOCKING

The Cubs were forced to make a move. Tyler Chatwood had another aggravating outing of walking 6 batters and putting the team into an early, big deficit.  Yu Darvish has been slow in his recovery to the point the team is now counting on a TJ-rehabber in Drew Smyly to make an impact in September.

So the Cubs made a trade for a second or third tier veteran starter in Cole Hamels. He has a no-hitter and a WS ring on his resume, but he has struggled for the Rangers this season. As MLBTR reports, the 34-year-old Hamels isn’t the ace that he once was, and he’s had his share of struggles in 2018 — albeit nearly all of them coming at his homer-happy home stadium in Arlington. Hamels is surrendering home runs at a career-worst rate, but it’s somewhat telling that 16 of the 23 round-trippers he’s yielded have come at Globe Life Park. Hamels has a 6.41 ERA, a 6.16 FIP and a 4.49 xFIP when pitching at home this season but a 2.93 ERA, 4.17 FIP and 3.83 xFIP on the road.

This is the same logic Theo used to justify signing Chatwood to a three year deal. Get him out of the hitter friendly Coors Field climate, and he will do great. It is apparent that throwing strikes or allowing home runs is not solely dependent on the climate.

The Cubs rotation, except for Lester, cannot get through five innings in any consistent manner. Hamels has to fit into the fourth or fifth starter role with the mentality of six plus innings in order to save the bullpen. Hendricks had another iffy outing, Quintana has had one quality start and two good ones in his last three, and Montgomery is hitting the wall by the fifth inning.

I suspect that Montgomery will move back into the bullpen as the long relief, emergency closer role from 2016.  Hamels will be in the rotation until Darvish returns. Then the real decision has to be made: keep sending Chatwood out to the mound to wet the bed, or go to a six man rotation (which Lester opposes.) You cannot trust the lack of command in Chatwood to be a leveraged relief pitcher. You can't waste Hamels potential for eating early innings in the bullpen.

In 20 starts this year, Hamels is 5-9, 4.72 ERA, 1.373 WHIP, 0.8 WAR. He is averaging 5 2/3 IP per start. If he fits into the rotation, the Cubs could probably count on 10-12 more starts from him (which would be slightly better than Chatwood's numbers). 

The Cubs gave up two minor league pitchers and a possible player-to-be-named later for Hamels. The Rangers will still eat most of the money owed to Hamels. Whether Hamels has anything left in the tank is the value of this trade.

EASY TRADE?

The radio chatter for weeks has been that the Cubs should trade Addison Russell to the Orioles for Manny Machado. It was poised as a simple no brainer deal, especially considering Machado wants to play shortstop.

But is it?

Machado is deemed to be a top 10 player in baseball. In 2018, he is hitting .310, 21 HR, 59 RBI, 5 SB and 1.7 WAR.  However, he has a negative 1.5 dWAR.

Swapping Russell for a rental Machado may have made some sense when the Cubs could not score runs, but after scoring more than 40 in 4 games, is Machado really needed?

In 2018, Russell is hitting .286, 5 HR, 27 RBI, 3 SB and 2.4 WAR.

Yes, Russell has a higher WAR value than Machado. Russell's WAr breaks down 1.4 oWAR and 1.4 dWAR.

Russell has three more years of control while you would have Machado for three months tops.

Russell has lost his luster because of nagging injuries and lack of flash that Baez provides on defense.

But the more the season progresses, the need is less on adding Machado than finding another reliable starting pitcher.

JUST DO IT!

The news broke early this morning that should have the Cubs front office changing everything they planned for this off-season.

Yahoo Sports quotes a Miami-based host for SiriusXM who has been all over the Giancarlo Stanton story, reported that the reigning NL MVP will not approve a trade to either the Giants or the Cardinals.   Stanton has a full no-trade clause in his 13-year, $325 million deal with the Marlins so he has all the leverage on where he will go.  He is under contract control through the 2020 season.
Furthermore, the report says Stanton "would" accept a trade to four teams and they’re the four teams that were in the ALCS and NLCS: the Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs and Astros. 


Clearly, Stanton wants to win NOW.


What the Cubs need to do is make a strong pitch for Stanton NOW.
Here is the argument for a blockbuster trade for Stanton I made on August 16, 2017:

1. He is young.
2. He is proven hitter.
3. He immediately makes any lackluster batting order better.
4. He is under long term control.

And his contract is such that if the market in 2020 is $30 million per year (Harper potential deal, now probably more than that figure), then he will opt out - - - and the team acquiring him by trade now is only out $77 million.

For the Marlins to take the PR hit to trade their star player, Miami will need to get a substantial return for Stanton: cheap controllable major league players and top prospects.

In the current situation, the Cubs may not have enough assets to acquire Stanton, who would be the perfect solution to the left field platoon situation.

The package the Cubs would have to offer to get Stanton:

1. Baez or Russell.  A controllable middle infielder with defensive skills is a premium position. One would think Miami, catering to Latin market, would prefer Baez's versatility over Russell (including injury history).

2. Schwarber. Even though Theo-Jed adore their Baby Ruth wannabee, there would be no position left for Schwarber if Stanton is acquired (since Heyward's best position is Gold Glove RF).  Miami could use Schwarber as a trade flip to an AL club for more prospects.

3. Almora. The Marlins need to market hometown players to their fans. Almora is young and talented to be a long term marketing piece.

4. Edwards. The Marlins would prefer to get a starter (like Hendricks) but the Cubs cannot spare one. A bullpen piece with some upside would off-set the weakness in Cub farm prospects since Edwards has a major league track record.

5. One of the Top 4 pitching prospects (De La Cruz, Albertos, Alzolany, or Lange) and/or International Bonus pool money.

If you look at this possible transaction from a long term Cub prospective, Stanton fills a need to provide offense, solidify the outfield and give protection to Bryant and Rizzo in the batting order.
It is also an affordable transaction.

The Cubs have $55 million in contracts coming off the books at the end of the year (net $46 million with Quintana's salary for 2018). Stanton's salary in 2018 is $25 million, leaving $21 million to sign a free agent starting pitcher.

As a footnote to the argument, the Cubs would have to either extend the opt out clause with Stanton or pay less in major league talent for a potential 2-year contract (maybe three players and a prospect). The Cubs spent $13 million/season on Chatwood to be the 4th starter. So the team is still under budget (but with several key roles to fill including the closer position). 

But this is a one-in-a-generation type move. The three years Stanton has to his opt out is the prime years for the current Cubs core. It also fits into the time frame for the Cubs to attempt to launch their own Cubs channel. Stanton is a superstar who solves a major problem in the current lineup: a consistent hitter that other teams fear.

THE BOLDEST MOVE

Jeffrey Loria is the worst MLB baseball owner. He is a crass, arrogant and flippant businessman who even sued his Marlin season ticket holders. But he was clever enough to bamboozle a brothel stadium from the taxpayers of Miami. Now, he is in the midst of trying to sell his team for $1.2 billion to an investment group led by former Yankee Derek Jeter (who wants to put no money into the club but have an equity position and total control over the franchise.)

The Marlins weak attendance and fan base mirrors its weak performance. Despite the millions in incentives and baseball revenue sharing, the Marlins are expected to lose $60 million this season.

When a business wants to sell at top dollar, it needs to massage its balance sheet to make a buyer think he is getting a great deal. The only way a small market club can do that is to cut payroll, the team's largest cost center.

News filtered today that the Marlins star player, Giancarlo Stanton, cleared waivers. After the trade deadline, teams put their players through waivers to clear them for possible August trades prior to the September 1 playoff roster deadline. (The other use of the waiver system is to try to get rid of an expensive contract.)

The Marlins are committed to six players $95 million in 2018 ($25 million is to Stanton).

Stanton, 27, hit his 44th HR of the season. He has achieved 5.2 WAR so far this year. At a salary of $14.5 million, his performance has outpaced his contract by $14.1 million. Next year, his contract jumps to $25 million. He is signed for 10 years at $295 million, but he can opt out after the 2020 season at age 30 (after being paid $77 million for three years).

Stanton is a legitimate superstar. He already has a 32.7 WAR. In 7.5 years, he has 252 HR, 634 RBI, .359 OBP, .268 BA.

Here is the argument for a blockbuster trade for Stanton:

1. He is young.
2. He is proven hitter.
3. He immediately makes any lackluster batting order better.
4. He is under long term control.

And his contract is such that if the market in 2020 is $30 million per year (Harper potential deal), then he will opt out - - - and the team acquiring him by trade now is only out $77 million.

For the Marlins to take the PR hit to trade their star player, Miami will need to get a substantial return for Stanton: cheap controllable major league players and top prospects.

In the current situation, the Cubs may not have enough assets to acquire Stanton, who would be the perfect solution to the left field platoon situation.

The package the Cubs would have to offer to get Stanton:

1. Baez or Russell.  A controllable middle infielder with defensive skills is a premium position. One would think Miami, catering to Latin market, would prefer Baez's versatility over Russell (including injury history).

2. Schwarber. Even though Theo-Jed adore their Baby Ruth wannabee, there would be no position left for Schwarber if Stanton is acquired (since Heyward's best position is Gold Glove RF).  Miami could use Schwarber as a trade flip to an AL club for more prospects.

3. Almora. The Marlins need to market hometown players to their fans. Almora is young and talented to be a long term marketing piece.

4. Edwards. The Marlins would prefer to get a starter (like Hendricks) but the Cubs cannot spare one. A bullpen piece with some upside would off-set the weakness in Cub farm prospects since Edwards has a major league track record.

5. One of the Top 4 pitching prospects (De La Cruz, Albertos, Alzolany, or Lange) and/or International Bonus pool money.

If you look at this possible transaction from a long term Cub prospective, Stanton fills a need to provide offense, solidify the outfield and give protection to Bryant and Rizzo in the batting order.
It is also an affordable transaction.

The Cubs have $55 million in contracts coming off the books at the end of the year (net $46 million with Quintana's salary for 2018). Stanton's salary in 2018 is $25 million, leaving $21 million to sign a free agent starting pitcher.

If any team trades for Stanton, it would not be a blockbuster move - - - but a nuclear one.

AFFORDABLE STARTERS (REVISED POST)

The following column was to be posted tomorrow. It was a discussion on why the White Sox could not trade starter Jose Quintana, since he is the most affordable starting pitcher in baseball.  But game changing news today:

CHICAGO (ESPN) The Cubs and White Sox pulled off a blockbuster deal with the White Sox sending lefty Jose Quintana to their crosstown rivals for Cubs top hitting prospect Eloy Jimenez as well as top pitching prospect Dylan Cease.

The Cubs are also sending Single-A infielders Matt Rose and Bryant Flete to the White Sox to complete the deal.

Jimenez, a 20-year-old outfielder, is the No. 5 prospect in baseball, according to ESPN's Keith Law.
Quintana, 28, is 4-8 with a 4.49 ERA this season after going 13-12 with a 3.20 ERA last year. He has a career 3.51 ERA and fills an immediate and long-term need for the Cubs as they're short on starting pitching. They rank eighth in the National League in starter's ERA plus employ pending free agents John Lackey and Jake Arrieta.


"It is always extremely difficult to trade a person and player like Jose Quintana," White Sox general manager Rich Hahn said in a statement, "but difficult as it was, this deal moves us closer to our goal of building a team capable of contending for multiple championships over an extended period of time. Jose, our scouts and coaches throughout the organization deserve a tremendous amount of credit for his development from a minor league free agent signee to one of the most sought-after talents in the game."

The Cubs have been looking to add to their pitching staff, which has performed much worse this season that in last year's World Series run, but they did not want a rental. Quintana is under contract through 2020, earning $8.85 million, $10.5 million and $11.5 million in 2018-20.

The following post still discusses the concept of affordable starters. The Cubs acquisition of Quintana is a huge deal for the defending champs. And it was quite unexpected since the Cubs had been discussing affordable pitchers with the Tigers.

The original post:

MLB general managers favorite buzz phrase is "affordable starters." Every team is looking to acquire affordable, young (cheap), controllable (years on contract before free agency) starters (who can throw 200+ innings per season).

It is like trying to find unicorns in the local forest preserve.

Traditionally, teams developed their own rotations from drafting quality pitchers. However, many teams have abandoned this hit or miss strategy to buy or trade for starting pitchers. A free agent veteran costs more money because there is a proven track record. A minor league prospect also has a track record but no major league experience to determine if his stuff will make it long term in the majors. The best hitters often feast on the weakest pitchers.

Contending teams are always looking to upgrade their pitching staffs in late summer as insurance against injury or dry spells. But teams that are out of contention now want a King's ransom for any pitcher who may have a promising career.

The White Sox are still looking to get two Top 10 prospects and at least one major league ready position player in trade for Jose Quintana. Quintana had been a solid #2 starter behind Chris Sale. He has not gotten the run support from Sox during his career, but he has been a solid performer.

Quintana, 28, in 172 games has a career 50-54, 3.51 ERA, 1.250 WHIP and 21.1 WAR.

This year is stats are down (but lately improving.) He is 4-8, 4.49 ERA, 1.323 WHIP and 0.9 WAR.

The most important feature about him is his team friendly contract. He is signed through the 2020 season for $31.9 million. That is less than 5th starter money these days. His average WAR salary value per season is $20 million. Clearly, he is a bargain starter.

So the White Sox are justified in asking for the moon to trade Quintana. It seems to be a done deal except for a trade partner.

But should the White Sox trade their #1 starter?

Only if you believe Carlos Rodon can be your #1 in the future. Rodon, 24, in 2.5 years has a 19-18 record, 3.93 ERA and 1.414 WHIP and 3.0 WAR.

The saving grace is that the White Sox have built up a massive amount of quality pitching arms in the minors. Of their top 20 prospects, 10 are pitchers: Kopech (2), Giolito (4), Lopez (5), Fulmer (6), Burdi (8), Hansen (10), Dunning (11), Adams (12), Stephens (14) and Flores (19).  Beck and Holmberg have already been promoted to the major league roster.

Kopech, Giolito, Lopez and Fulmer will be promoted to the bigs within two years as starters. Burdi's 100 mph stuff projects as the new closer. By 2019, the White Sox could have a 9+ deep starting staff.

But that presumes that none of the prospects have arm injuries or the yips when they face major league hitters. The White Sox coaching staff does have a track record of developing starting pitchers so there is hope very soon for a pitching windfall.

But the Sox could be even stronger if they kept the durable Quintana in the rotation. That way the team does not have to rush a prospect to the major league club. And Quintana is THE affordable, controllable pitcher that any team, including the White Sox, will always look for their roster.

THE BAEZ QUESTION

Bruce Levine was on Chicago radio this week discussing the Cubs situation with Javy Baez.

The scope of the discussion centered around the Cubs need to acquire young, controllable starting pitchers. The Cubs will have a real problem at the end of the season if Lackey retires and Arrieta goes to free agency (both expected to do so.)

The Cubs have many trade chips to get a young starter, but management is cautious about trading any of "their guys."

The roster squeeze problem is Javy Baez. He believes that he deserves to be a full time player. He has great defensive skills at all three infield positions with 62 defensive runs saved over average fielders.

Baez also excelled at the plate, hitting a respectable .273, 14 HR, 59 RBI, 12 SB in 450 PA.

The blocks of Baez being a full time starter is the Cubs favoritism towards Kyle Schwarber, who has been labeled "untradable" by the front office, and WS MVP Ben Zobrist, who is also a super-sub.

Schwarber appears to be penciled in as the regular left fielder (despite his injury history). That means that Zobrist will have to play second base as Addison Russell is the starting shortstop and league MVP Kris Bryant is locked in at third. This assumes that Justin Heyward can correct his swing to be a productive offensive player in right field.

The only way Baez plays full time in the field is there is a misfortune to some other player.

Levine stated that the Cubs feel Baez is too valuable to trade because if the third baseman, shortstop or second baseman gets hurt, Baez can step in and the Cubs don't lose any potential production.

Normally, if a young player is blocked by a veteran under contract, other teams will make solid offers to acquire him. In the speculative trade market, the Cubs could trade Baez straight up for White Sox starter Jose Quintana, a young starter with four years of contract control.

The clubhouse issue will be whether Joe Maddon can get Baez enough playing time to keep sharp during the season. It would seem that at best, Baez could get three starts a week while Maddon rests Bryant, Russell and Zobrist. But that would only occur later in the season.  And whether Baez is mentally tough enough to accept a super-bench role on the club, especially if other players are struggling at the plate (Heyward) or in the field (Schwarber).

For some, this is a good problem to have; too many good players on the roster competing for playing time. But the question will remain throughout spring training: is Baez more valuable to trade or stay?

QUINTANA MARKET

Jose Quintana is an under-the-radar ace. He is only 27 years old. He is under team control for four more years at a very low salary.  In five major league seasons, he has gone 46-46, 3.41 ERA, 1.242 WHIP and 20.5 WAR. By most estimations, he is more valuable trade chip than Chris Sale.

When the White Sox were dealing at the Winter Meetings, everybody was on the table. There were rumors that several teams were interested in Quintana: the Astros, the Mets, and the Nationals. But once Sale was traded to the Red Sox for the best prospects Boston had available, the price for Quintana apparently went up. And once the Nationals seemingly overpaid for CF Adam Eaton, talks on Quintana have become whispers.

There are other teams that have been kicking the tires. The Orioles do not have the top level prospects to cut a deal, and they are unlikely to deal two players off their 25 man roster as part of a package.

The Mets are in a similar position, but they are looking for bullpen studs rather than starting pitching.

Even though the White Sox are rich in minor league starters, GM Rick Hahn continues to stockpile arms. The Mets will not part with Steven Matz in a Quintana deal.

The Rangers are always an odd-fellow in the trade market. The Rangers always prize starting pitchers as acquisition targets. But it is unclear whether the Rangers have enough depth to pull off a multi-player deal.

A team with an potential excess of starting pitchers is the Dodgers. Injuries mowed down its entire rotation. It will start camp with eight or nine legitimate major league starters. Adding Quintana would not make much sense, but the Dodgers could be the conduit of a three team trade to move some of their excess starters to another club in exchange for a starting second basemen.

But the one team that still is trying to get a deal done is the Pirates. The Pirates would love to have a cost controlled starter to throw behind Gerrit Cole. Pittsburgh did re-sign ex-Yankee Nova but the team wants to maintain its budget with players who value exceeds the price. However, moving Andrew McCutchen to the White Sox is not part of the discussion.

The White Sox have received enough fan support to go through the rest of the off-season without making any further moves. But Quintana, because of his highly favorable contract, will continue to draw interest. Ironically, the Cubs main message this off-season has been to acquire a young, controllable starting pitcher. Quintana is the that pitcher.

THE PRIZE (UPDATED)

The Winter meetings are slowly moving through the bars and lobby. The talk is still about Chris Sale.

Sale would be the prize of this off-season.

The reason is simple: he has tremendous locked in value.

He is signed through the next three years at the low price of $48 million.
He has amassed a career 31.1 WAR, an average of 4.44 per season.
Last year WAR was 6.6.

Based on valuation, his contract value WAR is 2.71. His average career performance WAR is 4.44 or a difference of 1.73 WAR at an annual value of $10.21 million. Over the life of the contract, a team is getting a minimum $30.62 million more value from Sale and his deal than what the team will pay him.

Last year alone, Sale outperformed his contract by $29.85 million. At that pace, you are getting a $90 million ace starter for 5th starter money.

The Dodgers just signed 36 year old Rich Hill to a $48 million, 3 year deal. For the same money, who would not want Sale over Hill?

Last year, Hill had an inflated WAR of 4.1 His career WAR is only 9.5 over 12 seasons (.0.79 = less than AAA replacement value). But by last year's standard, Sale was + 2.5 WAR better than Hill for better value by $14.75 million.

This is why the White Sox are wanting a huge price for Sale. Reports continue to state that the White Sox want at least four quality prospects (Top 10) or a mix of prospects and major league ready players under long term control.

That is why the Astros dangling OF George Springer for Sale is a possibility. Springer is under team control through 2021. He is currently at the league minimum. He hit .261, 29 HR, 82 RBI for Houston in 2016. Last year his WAR was 5.0. A package with Springer and two of Houston's best prospects could swing a Sale deal.

But the White Sox have some time to get other teams hot and bothered by a potential deal. The Nationals continue to be described as the "hottest" team on the Sale trail. But the Nats do not want to part with their two best prospects (SS Turner and OF Robles).  But the odds are that some team will be winning to "overpay" for Sale if they believe they are one key player away from a World Series berth.

UPDATE:

Within ten minutes of this post, MLBTR reports Sale has been traded to the Red Sox for four prospects.

The Red Sox and White Sox have agreed to a blockbuster trade that will send Sale from Chicago to Boston in exchange for Yoan Moncada, Michale Kopech and two other prospects, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.

Moncada, 21, is the #1 prospect in all Baseball. The Cuban 2B/3B hit .294, 15 HR 62 RBI in A-AA ball last season.

Kopech was the #5 Red Sox prospect (#67 in majors). He is a starting pitcher who was 4-1, 2.08 ERA, 1.101 WHIP in Class A ball.
  

A SHIP TO SALE

Jason Stark was on ESPN Radio recently talking about the Chris Sale market. He said teams have said that the White Sox demands are extremely high for their ace. He said it looks like the Sox want to have a team's No. 1 prospect, two more in top five and another quality player (probably major league ready). Not many teams are willing to unload 3 or 4 of their best prospects for one player.

But reports continue to surface that the Red Sox, Rangers, Nationals, Astros and the Braves have asked about Sale. Stark predicts that the price may come down, and the Sox will trade Sale before Opening Day.

Sale will command the highest price tag because this year's starting pitching FA crop is barren. The Red Sox and Nationals have indicated that they are not trading their top prospects.

It is felt that the Astros will be the most aggressive team this off-season. Houston is poised to make a break out season like the Cubs in 2015. The Astros have inked OF Aoki, Reddick,  C McCann and SP Morton. The top prospects in the system include #1 (#29 overall) RHP Franics Martes, 21, who is moved up quickly to AA with a 9-6, 3.30 record as a starter. #2 is OF Kyle Tucker, 19, in A ball. #3 is RHP Forrest Whitley, a 6'7" rookie league player. #4 is RHP David Paulino to went through 3 levels to make a sip of coffee in the bigs last season.  #5 is OF Derek Fuller, a lefty hitting OF who hit .245, 16 HR, 59 RBI and 23 SB in AAA. Another good prospect is first rounder 3B Colin Moran who hit .259, 10 HR, 69 RBI in AAA. He is major league ready.

The White Sox have plenty of pitching prospects but are weak on position prospects.  Did the Astros signal with their outfield signings it would be willing to trade George Springer, 27, who hit .261, 29 HR, 82 RBI in the right deal for a stud starter? Springer is under team control to 2021.

In order for the White Sox to "win" the Sale deal, they need to get the "best" player in the deal in return. Springer does fit a real long term need. Adding a lefty speed OF in Fuller and 3B Moran could be part of a package, since the White Sox are willing to trade Todd Frazier because the third base free agent market is as bad as the starting pitching one.

If the Sox want to trade a big piece, they have to get young quick. That was the formula that the Cubs used to snare Addison Russell.

The Sox have fence sitting fans. Any Sale trade needs to bring back immediate "impact" players in return. 

SALE SIGNS

ESPN's Buster Olney reports that teams tell him that they believe the White Sox “are serious about their intention to trade Chris Sale.  Only reports that  Chicago has told rival clubs they’re willing to trade anyone with fewer than four years of team control remaining, which would mean Jose Quintana, Carlos Rodon, Adam Eaton and Tim Anderson are off the table, but names like Sale, Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier, Melky Cabrera and David Robertson are all in play.

Sale’s name figures to dominate next week’s Winter Meetings, and the wide range of options available to Chicago GM Rick Hahn should mean the White Sox will be connected to plenty of trade scenarios.

Sale has worn out his welcome in Chicago. His clubhouse revolt in spring training on the Adam LaRoche matter, to the cutting of throw back uniforms in a tantrum, has made him an unwanted diva.

And Sale is the premier trading asset this off-season. The free agent starting pitching market is as dry as the desert.

The Sox could go in fire sale mode.

It seems the idea many teams are adopting is the concept of a young "core" of players under control for multiple years. Once you establish a set core of players (like the Cubs did), you can then fill needs through free agency or trade.

Olney's report states that Sox have decided that 4 years of player control is the "core" the team wants to use in order to target for a championship in 2020. But with only four core players (SP Quintana, SP Rodon, OF Eaton and SS Anderson) the White Sox are still far away from the playoffs.

However, to the right team, Sale could bring in five under-25 prospects and major league ready talent. Abreu, Frazier and Cabrera could bring a good prospect and another high ceiling low minor league prospect.

Trading those four players could yield about a dozen new, young players. Adding to the strength of the organization, minor league starting pitching, the White Sox do have the building blocks to make a rebuild work.

WINTER IS UPON US

The 2016 Cubs went 103-58 in the regular season. It had a team WAR of 57.4 (Hitting 37.4 + Pitching 20.0).

Currently, four key players will not be back.

Dexter Fowler: 13 HR, 48 RBI, 13 SB, .276 BA, 4.2 WAR
Jason Hammel: 15010, 166.2 IP, 1.206 WHIP, 1.1 WAR
David Ross: 10 HR, 32 RBI, .229 BA, 1.7 WAR
A. Chapman: 1-1, 1.01 ERA, 16 SV, 0.825 WHIP, 1.1 WAR

For the lack of starting pitching on the free agent market, the release of Hammel's option gives Hammel, 34, leverage to find a new landing spot on a team of his own choosing. It appears lefty Mike Montgomery will take over the 4th starter role in 2017.

Fowler, 30, declined a mutual option to again chase free agency. Last season he was close to signing with Baltimore. Rumors have it that the Blue Jays will take a run at him. It would appear Albert Almora will be the new center fielder. Whether he can be a lead off hitter is unknown.

Ross, 39, decided to retire after a memorable World Series run. He will walk away from the game, take some time off, and probably return in some coaching role. Who will be Jon Lester's new personal catcher. An angry Miguel Montero, who is still owned one year/$14 million from the Cubs, would be the leading candidate over Willson Contreras, who will catch the major of games in 2017. Most people doubt that after his knee injury, Kyle Schwarber will be able to catch games.

Chapman, 28, is set for a big payday in a very good closer free agent class. This leaves a void for Rondon, Strop or Edwards to be used as a closer by committee situation. The bullpen will get murkier as Travis Wood is also a free agent. Wood, 29, went 4-0, 2.55 ERA in 77 GP, 1.131 WHIP and 0.5 WAR. He fell out of favor with Maddon in the playoffs.

The four key departures equates to 14.1 % of total Team WAR.

The hitters departure equates to 15.8% of total Fielder WAR while the pitchers are 11% of Team Pitching WAR.

There will also be positional issues in the 2017 roster. Schwarber has shown he is built to be a DH. But the front office is so enamored with his bat that he falls into the category of a "no trade" player. But as a valuable asset, Schwarber could yield a top line starting pitcher like a Chris Sale.

The Winter Meetings start with the Cubs as the World Champions. Everyone will be gunning at the Cubs in 2017 to measure their own roster strengths. The championship hangover could hurt Chicago with a slow start.  Depth, especially in starting rotation, will be an ongoing concern.

THE TRADE

The Cubs overpaid for a 10 week regular season rental player.

Aroldis Chapman is an elite closer.  Chapman, 28, has the highest strikeout rate per nine innings in baseball, and his fastball was recently clocked at 105 mph. The left-hander has a 2.01 ERA in with 20 saves in 21 opportunities for the Yankees.

In order to get the deal done, the Cubs sent four players to New York: #1 prospect Gleyber Torres, #4 prospect OF Billy McKinney, swingman P Adam Warren (who Chicago got from NY in the Starlin Castro trade) and Class A OF Rashad Crawford.


Torres, 19, was the main chip in the deal. He is projected to have plus defensive skills. But he was going to blocked at the major league level by Addison Russell and Javy Baez.

Warren was a mixed bag as Maddon did not use him consistently as the Yankees did last season as a starter and long reliever. McKinney came over from Oakland in the Russell deal, but he seems to also be blocked by Albert Almora who will succeed Dexter Fowler in CF in 2017.

The Yankees were adamant about getting four players for Chapman, because last off-season they traded four players to the Reds to get Chapman, who was in hot water for an alleged domestic violence investigation.

Chapman and his agent negotiated a 30 game suspension with the league which allowed Chapman to earn enough service time this year to become a free agent this off-season. As a Scott Boras client, Chapman will test the free agent market. He had said he had a preference to re-signing with the Yanks.

So Chapman is clearly a rental player for the Cubs.

Some fans may not like the idea of a bad person coming into the good clubhouse the Cubs have fostered under Joe Maddon. Apparently, Ricketts and the front office spoke to Chapman and set forth their expectations of him and his conduct. In a press release, Chapman said he accepted the league punishment and is working with his girlfriend to raise their daughter. Whether this partial apology will stop fans or the media from questioning Chapman is another matter.

The four players traded for Chapman does improve the back of the bullpen.

However, the four players traded for Chapman could have been used to pry a controllable starting pitcher from a team like the Rays.  The Cubs had been advertising that they wanted to get a controllable starting pitcher prior to the Mike Montgomery trade.

But it appears Theo and Jed are in "win now" mode - - - a championship this season or bust. The trade allows Rondon and Strop to pitch the 8th and 7th innings, with Montgomery and Wood being situational pitchers, and Nathan, Edwards and Grimm in mop up roles.

A KING'S RANSOM

White Sox fans are still sensitive of the infamous 1997 White Flag trade where the team, only two games out of the playoffs, decided to become an aggressive Seller at the trade deadline.

The Sox have always tried to "re-tool" their club instead of rebuilding it with young talent. In the past two off-seasons, writers believed the Sox had made very good acquisitions - - - enough to be very competitive and a playoff team with their fine starting core of pitchers.

But now, 1.5 seasons in the book, the Sox continue to struggle on offense. A shaky bullpen and the lack of deep talent in the minors have gotten GM Rich Hahn putting the "for sale" out early during his long dugout session with the media. He would hear offers on anyone. Which is a complete opposite move from even last week.

So reports quickly pop up that one team has offered "a king's ransom" for Chris Sale. Of course it would. Sale would be the best pitcher on the market. A Cy Young candidate under affordable control through 2019 is a rarity in modern baseball.

MLBtraderumors reported  the Rangers are “making [a] serious effort” to pry Sale loose from the White Sox, according to MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan. The Dallas Morning news also recently that the two teams were already chatting about Sale (and Quintana, too) before it became apparent that Chicago was leaning toward selling.

There’s “no indication” as yet whether these talks are going to go anywhere, Sullivan notes, so it doesn’t sound as if there’s anything building in the immediate term. Indeed, Grant adds that no “serious talks” have occurred as of this point. The key takeaway seems to be that Texas at least plans to take a real shot at pulling off a blockbuster.

Indications are that Chicago would have interest in Joey Gallo and Jurickson Profar in any scenario involving Sale. We’ve heard those two names quite a bit of late, and obviously the pair carries a lot of trade value. Still, it’s quite likely that Texas would need to add some real talent to that package to get the White Sox to budge.

Sale, after all, is just 27 years of age, remains under control at cheap rates through 2019, and carries a 3.18 ERA over a league-leading 133 frames on the year. Particularly with the contracts factored in, Sale is one of the most valuable single pitching assets in all of baseball — with Quintana not far behind him.

If Sale and Quintana is on the market,  people will be quite upset if the Cubs, who have the best prospects in the game, do not get Sale. But many believe the White Sox will never help the Cubs win a World Championship no matter the package the Cubs would offer.

The Cubs could make the White Sox young in a hurry. You could package a combination of OF Soler, OF McKinney, SS Torres and maybe C Schwarber or IN Baez to capture Sale and another young starting pitcher from the Sox. Sale is an ace pitcher that would put any playoff team over the top.

I have figured that Sale is probably worth a package of seven quality prospects. (Look at the Shelby Miller deal as a comparable.)

The Cubs have to look at it this way: if a NL team like the Nationals get Sale, then their rotation becomes dominate in a short series.

And the fact the Cubs have been looking for a controllable starting pitcher - - - as insurance against Hammels, Lackey or even Arrieta faltering in September - - - - why not go out and get the best?!

It could be all a pipe dream. The idea the White Sox will trade its best player will upset the fan base to no end. The Sox could be putting out the big names to see what other teams are willing to part - - - intelligence to make deals for other talent. But again, if the White Sox get a lion's share of the Cubs young talent - - - fans may think they got the better of the deal.

The odds are that Sale and Quintana are not going to be traded by the deadline. Other position players like Abreu, Frazier, or Eaton could be gone in a flash. But since starting pitching is so valuable today, moving aces is very hard to accomplish.

NOT "HIS" GUYS

This post was written prior to the Cubs trade.

Many believe that Theo Epstein "loves" his prospects to the point where he cannot part with them. It is a common problem some general managers have in drafting and developing players. Former Cubs GM Jim Hendry was famous for hanging on to his prospects to the point where they had no trade value (or were poor major league players). In a trade market, you try to exchange gold for silver; veterans for quality prospects.

So when Theo took over the Cubs, he had no loyalty to Hendry-era players. Here are some notable players from the Hendry days:

Notable Drafted players:

2003 – Jake Fox, Sean Marshall, Casey Mcgehee, Sam Fuld (unsigned) 

2004 – Fuld, Sean Gallagher


2006 – Tyler Colvin, Jeff Samardjiza, Steve Clevenger


2007 – Josh Donaldson, Darwin Barney, Brandon Guyer, Josh Vitters 

2008 – Andrew Cashner, Ryan Flaherty, Josh Harrison, Jeff Beliveau, and an unsigned Sonny Gray

2009 – Brett Jackson, DJ LeMahieu, Chris Rusin, Wes Darvill, Brooks Raley, Justin Bour, Trey McNutt, and an unsigned Colin Kaepernick (SF QB)


2010 – Matt Szczur, Erick Jokisch, Elliot Soto, Dustin Geiger, Dallas Beeler

2011 – Javy Baez, Dan Vogelbach, Tayler Scott, Shawon Dunston, Jr., Daniel Lockhart, Trey Martin, Dillon Maples, John Andreoli, James Pugliese, Andrew McKirahan, Michael Jensen, PJ Francescon.

Notable International signings:

2010_ OF Rubi Silva (Cuba), SS Carlos Penalver (Venezuela), 3B Jeimer Candelario (Dominican Republic),  OF Jeffrey Baez, C Alberto Mineo
 (Italy),  RHP Daury Torrez (Dominican Republic)


2009- C Willson Contreras (Venezuela), Pin-Chieh Chen (Taiwan), RHP Felix Pena


2008 – INF Hak-Ju Lee (South Korea),  RHP, INF Arismendy Alcantara (Dominican Republic), Frank Batista RHP, Dominican Republic 

2007 – OF Kosuke Fukudome (Japan), IF Junior Lake (Dominican Republic)

2006 – SS Starlin Castro (Dominican Republic)


2005 – RHP Alberto Cabrera (Dominican Republic)


2004 – RHP Rafael Dolis (Dominican Republic), C Welington Castillo (Dominican Republic).

As you can tell, many of the Hendry signings did make it to the major leagues. Several have been used by Theo as trade chips to acquire other players. In 4.5 years, Theo has turned over most the organizational roster.

So if you are trying to predict which current Cubs prospects or players could be used in a trade deadline trade, look at who is left in the Cubs organization from the Hendry era:

Contreras #2 prospect, Candelario #8 prospect, and Vogelbach #20 prospect.

Contreras and Candelario have both played with the Cubs major league team this season. Vogelbach has gotten some of his power back in AAA Iowa.

Since the Cubs will not trade Kyle Schwarber, who some project to be worth more than 21 WAR in his rookie control period, for a relief pitcher, that means it is really down to Candelario and Vogelbach to make a trade. For a top line reliever like Andrew Miller, this probably will not get it done. For a rental player like A. Chapman, maybe, but there will be other suitors. 

Addendum:
 
The Cubs acquired left handed swingman Mike Montgomery and minor leaguer Jordan Pries from Seattle in exchange for 1B/DH Dan Vogelbach and minor league starter Paul Blackburn. With Montgomery, the Cubs get a power pitcher from the left side that holds lefties to a .146 BA. He also has the ability to spot start.

Like discussed above, the Cubs parted with Vogelbach, a player who would blocked by Rizzo and Schwarber on the major league roster. Vogelbach was rumored to have been in the Yankee discussions for Andrew Miller, but the Yanks wanted Schwarber.

Of note, Theo and Hoyer did part with one of their "guys," a 2012 draft pick in Blackburn. Blackburn, 22, is 6-4 in AA with a 3.17 ERA. In Pries, the Cubs get a 26 year old AAA reliever who was promoted from AA as a marginal starter.

AT THE BREAK

The Cubs finished the first "half" of the season with a tight win against the Pirates.

At the All-Star Break, the Cubs are in the first place in the NL Central with a 53-35 record, with a 7 game lead.  The lead was built by a torrent 25-6 start, and then nose dive 6-15 finish.

As the season began, the Cubs were comfortable with the top three starters: Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester and newly acquired John Lackey, a big game playoff pitcher. The Cubs hoped that Jason Hammel would rebound and Kyle Hendricks would be a serviceable 5th starter.

The world thought the Cubs would be able to hit with a line up of young and old bangers: Dexter Fowler is an offense minded lead off hitter; Kyle Schwarber has a pure contact swing, rookie of the year Kris Bryant would get better, Anthony Rizzo is always solid and newcomer Ben Zobrist would solidify the infield. The Cubs came out gangbusters to have a historic run differential during the first 30 games.

But Schwarber got hurt in an outfield collision. It was a serious knee injury (of the football type). He is gone for the season. That put the Cubs one lefty bat short. But Zobrist has come through in the clutch and the season streamed along victory lane. But then Fowler hurt his hamstring in June and he has been gone nearly a month. He DH'd on Saturday in South Bend, but did not play on Sunday. He won't play in the All-Star game. His return is indefinite.

The highlights:
Rizzo, .299 BA, 21 HR, 63 RBI
Bryant, .286 BA, 25 HR, 65 RBI
Zobrist, .283 BA, 13 HR, 47 RBI
Fowler, .290 BA, 7 HR, 28 RBI

The concerns:
Montero, .201 BA, 5 HR, 23 RBI
Heyward, .243 BA, 4 H$, 28 RBI
Russell, .237 BA, 11 HR, 51 RBI

People wonder if Russell is going to be a career .235 hitter with a great glove. But others point out that he has 51 RBIs for a shortstop, which is far above average.

Heyward has gotten a lot of grief for his offensive woes, but the catching has been weak hitting until the call up of Willson Contreras (.305 BA, 5 HR, 16 RBI in 83 AB). Maddon was using Contreras like Schwarber, mostly in LF to get his bat into a struggling line up.

It also appears that Maddon has overmanaged more games this season (costing the Cubs a few games such as running out of bench players early). The critics still do not like Maddon playing players outside their natural position, such as Bryant in LF (who bruised his knee colliding with Almora on a play similar to the Schwarber injury incident). But Maddon justifies it by saying having players play multiple positions "extends" his short bench (which it does not because the number of players is the same).

It is hard to say that one player makes a line up purr, but Fowler is the catalyst for the Cubs. His nagging hamstring issue was a major reason for the Cubs first half offense woes. With his return still uncertain, the Cubs will have to rely more heavily on their prospects.

 Maddon believes that it is the starting pitching that pilots this team. In the first half of the first half, the Cubs starters sported a combined ERA under 2.70. In the last 10 games, it is more than 5.70. The Cubs have gone 0 for 10 in quality starts in July.

Despite the horrible last starts of most of the starters, their overall records are very good:

Lackey: 7-5, 3.70 ERA, 1.106 WHIP
Arrieta: 12-4, 2.68 ERA, 1.093 WHIP
Lester: 9-4, 3.01 ERA, 1.084 WHIP
Hammel: 7-5, 3.96 ERA, 1.131 WHIP
Hendricks: 7-6, 2.55 ERA, 1.034  WHIP

Opponents have turned the table on the Cubs. Teams are taking more pitches from the starters (including biting sliders bending just out of the strike zone). By taking more pitches, batters are working deeper counts and putting more stress on the starters to be more precise. With a wildly variable umpire strike zone night to night, ultra competitive starters like Lester and Lackey can easily lose their cool and focus. And once they have to throw one into the zone, batters pounce.

That was the formula for the Cubs hot opening streak. Working long counts, getting to the opponent's bullpen early, "earning" walks and putting up big innings. That is how the Cubs became the talk of the league, the juggernaut.

Good teams adapt to changing conditions. Bad teams find excuses instead of solutions. Maddon hinted that the ending 24 straight days without a game break was grueling, but the Cubs only had Adam Warren stretched out for one spot start. Since mid-June, the bullpen has been taxed (especially for those few pitchers Maddon "trusts" in tight situations).

In 88 games, Travis Wood has pitched in 44, Justin Grimm 40, and Pedro Strop 38. Much of the stressful work load has come in the last 6 weeks.So far, Wood has compiled a 0.3 WAR, Grimm a negative 0.3 WAR and Strop a 0.5 WAR. Closer Hector Rondon has only 14 saves (4 blown saves) for a 1.1 WAR.

The consensus is that the Cubs need to go out and acquire bullpen help. Every contender is looking to improve their pens. A few have questioned whether the Cubs need to go out and get another quality starter (a harder task) because Hammel's history of poor second halves. Part of the issue is that the starters have failed to get through 6 IP. There have been no real rest days for the pen in a month.  The quality of the bullpen is directly related to the quality starts of the rotation.

Arrieta's mechanics are messed up. Lester is getting squeezed by umpires. Lackey is old and looks tired at times. Hammel will be Hammel. Hendricks is poised to have a career year if he continues to pitch to his spots. Can the rotation turn it around after the Al-Star break? That may be the key to the entire season.

The trade market appears to be a tight one this year. Most teams are still within the realm of a wild card spot. The Yankees are the potential big Seller at the deadline, but ownership seems to have clamped down on making any major moves this year. The Yankees do not want to be perceived as "rebuilding" or quitting on a season. So big relief arms like Miller or Chapman may not be available if ownership thinks the team could have a second half run.

If you asked a Cub fan in spring training would they be happy if the Cubs were 7 games ahead of the Cardinals and Pirates at the All-Star break, they would have said "yes." But it was the roller coaster ride to get to that point that has some fans worried about the team's direction since the tailspin is the most recent turn.

SOX ROX TRADE RUMOR

The White Sox have added a power hitting third baseman and a solid hitting second baseman.

Now, the attention seems to be toward improving the outfield, especially right field.

The White Sox are mentioned as a possible trade partner with the Rockies, who are shopping all three of their current outfielders. Bruce Levine believes the Sox want to add a productive corner outfielder.

Carlos Gonzalez ("CarGo") is the prize. Levine speculates it would take Avisail Garcia, 24 year old cost control major leaguer and a high pitching prospect, to get the deal done. Garcia has loads of promise but owns a career batting line of just .264/.311/.385 in almost 1,100 plate appearances spanning parts of four seasons. Still, his youth combined with a move to Coors Field might make him an intriguing possibility for the Rockies.

Gonzalez, 30, hit .271, 40 HR 97 RBI, 3.1 WAR for Colorado in 2015. He is under control for two years, making $17 million in 2016 and $20 million in 2017.

The White Sox have a pitching surplus. The starting rotation is pretty much set: Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, Carlos Rodon, Erik Johnson and John Danks. #2 prospect Carson Fulmer is expected to join the rotation sometime in 2016. The Sox also have #3 prospect SP Specer Adams, #5 prospect Tyler Danish and #9 prospect LHP Jose Guerrero. On the 40 man, the Sox also have former starter Scott Carroll and rookie (#10 prospect) SP Chris Beck as possible trade items.

Levine notes that the White Sox likely wouldn't part with any major league starting pitching since it's not necessarily a position of depth, but five of their top 10 prospects are pitchers, led by 2015 first-round pick Carson Fulmer.

I would probably trade Garcia, Guerrerro or Beck for Gonzalez.

THE HIGH COST OF RENTAL PLAYERS

MLBTR reports that the Yankees paid a high price to acquire a closer.

After months of trying to add a third dominant reliever to their bullpen, the Yankees on Monday announced the acquisition of left-hander Aroldis Chapman from the Reds in exchange for a quartet of minor leaguers. Third baseman Eric Jagielo will head to Cincinnati, as will second baseman Tony Renda and right-handers Rookie Davis and Caleb Cotham. Chapman will presumably slide into the Yankees’ closer role, combining with fellow southpaw Andrew Miller and right-hander Dellin Betances to create perhaps the most formidable bullpen trio in all of Major League Baseball next season.

Chapman, 27, is arguably baseball’s best relief pitcher, is set to become a free agent in 2017. But there is a domestic violence allegations that ultimately halted a trade to the Dodgers from being finalized earlier this month. Chapman is currently being investigated by the league, and if he is found in violation of the league’s new domestic violence policy, he could fall short of the six years service time needed to become a free agent. It would seem the Yankees acquired Chapman in order to have exclusive negotiating rights to him during the 2016 season.

Cincinnati is the garage sale rebuild mode after trading All-Star third baseman Todd Frazier to the White Sox. The Reds have added two minor leaguers from the Yankees’ second tier of prospects (Jagielo  #6 prospect and Davis #10 prospect) in addition to a pair of prospects that didn’t crack the Top 30 lists of either MLB.com or Baseball America.

Jagielo, 23, was selected in the first round of the 2013 draft out of Notre Dame. A knee injury that required arthroscopic surgery shortened his 2015 season, but when he was healthy, he batted .284/.347/.495 with nine homers in 58 games/248 plate appearances at the Double-A level. MLB.com’s scouting report notes that Jagielo is strong and has “good loft in his swing,” giving him the ability to drive the ball to all fields. His penchant for strikeouts (23.3 percent in 2015; 24.4 percent in 2014) is a red flag, but MLB.com notes that he draws enough walks to post sound OBP numbers even if his batting average is lackluster. The question surrounding Jagielo is whether he’ll stay at third base or move across the diamond to first, as questions about his range and arm strength are oft-cited strikes against him. Despite those potential issues, MLB.com did rate him as the No. 7 third-base prospect in the game.

As for Davis, Norris notes in his scouting report over at BA that alterations to his delivery led to a breakout of sorts in 2015. Davis pitched to a combined 3.86 ERA with 8.9 K/9 against 1.8 BB/9 in in 130 2/3 innings between Class-A Advanced and Double-A. The mechanical changes resulted in increased velocity, per Norris, who writes that Davis sits 93 to 95 mph with his heater — a pitch that is complemented by a sharp mid-70s curve and a low-80s changeup. BA indicates that he could be a mid-rotation starter, while MLB.com notes that he has good control but spotty command (i.e. throws strikes but doesn’t command the pitches within the strike zone) and could be best suited for a relief role, where his velocity could approach triple digits.

The Yankees acquired Renda, 24, from the Nationals this past season in exchange for right-hander David Carpenter.  The fleet-footed infielder batted .269/.330/.358 in 532 Double-A plate appearances between the two organizations, adding three homers and 23 steals (in 29 attempts). Renda rated 12th among Nationals farmhands last season and was 22nd on MLB.com’s Top 30 at the time of the trade to the Yankees in early June. BA praised his compact swing and line-drive stroke in last winter’s scouting report, noting that his bat has a chance to be above-average, and he’s tough to strike out. He’s drawn praise for his makeup and work ethic as well as his advanced bat control while noting that he lacked power.

Cotham, who turned 28 in November, made his big league debut with the Yankees this past season but struggled, yielding seven runs on 14 hits (four homers) and a walk with 11 strikeouts in 9 2/3 innings. That 11-to-1 K/BB ratio is encouraging, however, as is the 1.74 ERA that Cotham recorded in 31 innings at the Triple-A level, where he struck out 30 batters and walked just five. Cotham worked exclusively out of the bullpen between Double-A and Triple-A in 2015, totaling a 2.21 ERA with 9.6 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9. He could potentially step directly into the Reds’ bullpen, where he’d bring a fastball that averaged 92.6 mph in his brief big league tenure this past season.

MLBTR concludes that  the Reds added mid-level prospects and an MLB-ready bullpen arm in exchange for one year of the game’s best closer. Some may think the return is somewhat disappointing in a vacuum, it’s clear that Chapman’s domestic violence allegations rightly lowered the asking price and prevented Cincinnati from maximizing his value in a trade. But in reality, the Reds did receive four (4) prospects with potential upsides to add depth to their minor league system.

The Reds ended last season with five rookie starting pitchers. The team is on a development track by quickly advancing prospects to the major leagues. In that type of environment, there is an incentive for players to work harder to get to the majors quicker - - - which can quickly mold a core of good, young players.

HOLY COW!

This was a move that caught many off-guard: The White Sox fixing their third base problem by trading for Reds All-Star Todd Frazier.

In the three team deal, the White Sox send to the Dodgers three high level prospects: SP Frankie Montas, OF Trayce Thompson and IN Micah Johnson. The Dodgers send to the Reds a package of quality prospects: IN Jose Peraza, OF Scott Schebler and IN Brandon Dixon.

Montas is a flamethrower starting minor league pitcher and listed as the team's #3 prospect. Thompson was the White Sox's #14 prospect, but had a good debut last year to the point that he would compete for a starting OF position. Johnson was the Sox's #5 prospect. He is a solid infield defender with speed. But the acquisition of Brett Lawrie made Johnson expendable depth.

Frazier, 29, is under team control through 2017. He will be paid $7.5 million in 2016.

Frazier hit .255, 35 HR, 89 RBI, 13 SB with the Reds. He had a season 4.0 WAR. In his 4.25 seasons in the majors, his career WAR is 15.3.

This move immediately re-tools the Sox infield and line-up.

Frazier will anchor third, sophomore Tyler Saladino will compete for shortstop, Lawrie at second and Jose Abreu at first.

Along with two new proven catchers, the White Sox lineup looks more powerful:

1. Eaton CF
2. Cabrera LF
3. Abreu 1B
4. Frazier 3B
5. Lawrie 2B
6. Garcia RF
7. LaRoche DH
8. Navarro/Avila C
9. Saladino SS

HAMMEL

Jason Hammel had a bad second half. Joe Maddon lost confidence in him.
He has one year to go on his current deal for $9 million. Hammel did post a 1.7 WAR last season, which is worth about $9.52 million, so he actually performed above his WAR value (like himself plus a minimum 25 man roster player).

Because of the flux in the free agent pitching market, and some teams not willing to overpay for second tier pitching, Hammel can be an affordable option. The Cubs are in the same position trying to find affordable pitching on a tight budget.  But in order to fill an urgent need in CF, the Cubs have to trade salary in order to make acquisitions.

Hammel seems to be a trade candidate for a center fielder.

If you look at the value spectrum for starting rotations, it looks like this:

Fifth starter: $4.5 million
Fourth starter: $ 9 million
Third starter: $13.5 million
Second starter: $18 million
Ace: $22.5 million

Hammel fits into the 4th starter realm.

But to get a center fielder making $9 million in value puts end of the road veterans or journeymen like Matt Kemp, Coco Crisp or even Austin Jackson in the mix. To trade Hammel, the Cubs would need to get a center fielder who platooned last year on a club but who could play full time, or an excess outfielder with potential (like the Red Sox now have an outfield surplus with the signing of Chris Young.)

If Hammel cannot be used as trade chip, he may be moved just to add $9 million in unused payroll to help sign a free agent.