The Toronto Blue Jays went all in for David Price, trading three left handed prospects for the rental pitcher.
The marquee piece coming in return is top Blue Jays prospect Daniel Norris and two other lefties, Jairo Labourt, and Matt Boyd.
Price has pitched to a 2.53 ERA with 8.5 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9
over 146 innings on the year. That puts him on pace for a 200+ inning
campaign with excellent results, Since his first full season in the big
leagues, in 2010, Price has rated hird in the majors among all starters in terms of fWAR, fourth in
innings (1,224), and tenth in ERA (3.01) among qualifying starters. He
has struck out 8.6 and walked 2.2 batters per nine innings in that span.
The Blue Jays are taking the remaining $7 million salary and lose the chance for a draft pick because they can't give a qualifying offer to Price as he hits the free agent market. Price will be the prize in this season's free agent derby.
Toronto's prospects are good. Norris was 18th best prospect on Baseball America’s mid-season round-up. He’s a 22-year-old with loud stuff but sometimes-shaky control, as
evidenced by his seventeen walks in thirty big league innings. But he’s
got plenty of upside, obviously, particularly if he can harness his
offerings. Over 90 2/3 frames at Triple-A this year, Norris owns a 4.27
ERA with 7.7 K/9 against 4.1 BB/9. But he was much better last year,
putting up double-digit K/9 numbers and allowing only 3.1 walks per nine
en route to a 2.53 earned run mark in 124 1/3 minor league innings.
Labourt, 21, is working at the High-A level and ranks 19th on MLB.com’s prospect list of his now-former club’s prospects. The large-bodied sinkerballer could
become a “future workhorse,” says MLB.com, though he’s scuffled
somewhat this year. Over 80 1/3 innings, Labourt owns a 4.59 ERA with
7.8 K/9 against 4.9 BB/9.
The 24-year-old Boyd has spent most of the year in the high minors
after a brief (and rough) two-start stint in the majors. He earned the
11th spot on MLB.com’s Toronto board. He doesn’t have a huge arm, but
excels with feel, command, and deception.
On a value basis, is Price worth 3.0 WAR to the Jays for the remainder of the season? That would assume the three prospect pitchers combined would give the Jays replacement value this season. Norris has only a 0.2 WAR in limited work. Price, in 21 Tiger starts, is 9-4, 2.53 ERA, 1.110 WHIP and 3.5 WAR. He has a career 26.7 WAR which averages out to about 4.0 WAR per season. Last year he was 4.6 WAR, then prior two years 2.8 and 4.6. If we average the last three years, his average WAR is 4.77. 4.77 minus 3.5 (current) equals a projected balance of 2015 WAR of 1.27.
If one values a player based upon $/WAR(2014 off season median was $6 million/win), then the Jays should expect $7.62 million worth of production from Price for the rest of the season (bonus with post season play). So from Toronto's perspective, Price is reasonably valued for the projected performance for the rest of this season.
It means that the Blue Jays gave up three pitchers controllable for the next five years for one very good starter's next 10 starts.
