As the hype of the trade season starts, here is a list from NBC Sports of the top arms available this season:
LHP Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies
Cole Hamels is not a typical trade deadline target in that he’s still
just 31 years old and under contract through 2019 at what is basically
the going rate for a top-of-the-rotation starter, but the Phillies are
so bad that rumors have swirled around him for a long time now.
Hamels’ win-loss records have suffered from terrible lineup and
bullpen support, but don’t let that fool you into thinking he’s anything
but a No. 1 starter. He has a 3.29 career ERA–including a 2.88 ERA
since the beginning of last season–and he’s basically never been hurt
while averaging 32 starts and 212 innings per season since 2008. He
finished the first half with an awful start versus the Giants, but
Hamels had a 3.02 ERA before that outing and is striking out a
career-high 9.5 batters per nine innings this year.
The question with Hamels is how much value he has beyond the 3.5
years and $80 million remaining on his contract. As a free agent he’d
get more than that on the open market, so what are teams willing to
trade for the right to acquire Hamels at market-value annual salaries
for a shorter commitment than they’d have to make via free agency? He’s
not just a second-half pickup. Hamels would anchor a rotation for
three-and-a-half seasons and that’s nearly impossible to acquire via
free agency without making a $100 million-plus commitment.
The Phils front office is in transition as the old regime continues to ask for the Moon for Hamels. It is doubtful that the Phils can actually make a trade until the off-season.
RHP Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds
Johnny Cueto is an even better No. 1 starter than Hamels–posting a
sub-3.00 ERA in five straight seasons and finishing runner-up in last
year’s Cy Young voting–but he’s also a more typical trade deadline
target in that he’s an impending free agent. If a team acquires Hamels
they’re getting him for 100 or more starts from now until 2018 or 2019,
but the Reds are basically just shopping Cueto’s next 15 starts. That
has big value, of course, especially to a team with clear playoff
aspirations that can get more starts out of him in October.
Cincinnati has the option of simply letting Cueto make those 15
starts for them and then walk as a free agent, at which point they’d
receive a first-round draft pick as compensation. No one seems to think
that scenario is likely, but it does mean any trade offer for Cueto must
be superior to a first-round pick. And a team that trades for him would
not be eligible for the same compensation. Cueto is better than Hamels,
but is 15 starts of Cueto for $5 million more valuable than 100-plus
starts of Hamels for $80 million?
The Reds started their fire sale last season, so why not finish by trading the rest of the rotation? Cueto may be the "value" arm on the market on a price/performance basis.
RHP James Shields, San Diego Padres
Here’s a clear case of buyer’s remorse. San Diego had huge plans for a
headline-grabbing offseason and on-the-fly rebuild, with signing James
Shields to a four-year, $75 million deal playing a major part in that.
But now the Padres are 41-49 and Shields has a 4.01 ERA that’s his worst
since 2010 despite calling pitcher-friendly Petco Park home.
There are some potential red flags within Shields’ performance at age
33. His velocity is down a bit, his walk rate is way up, he’s served up
19 homers in 19 starts, and his numbers away from Petco Park are ugly.
On the other hand he’s also striking out a career-high 10.1 per nine
innings. Shields is under contract for $21 million in each of the next
three seasons, which is nearly the same as Hamels’ contract and that
tells you why the Padres may have trouble moving him for any real value.
San Diego had, on paper, an excellent off-season but like the White Sox, the plan has blown up like a defective 4th of July firework. The question is whether the Pads will hold to their plan and keep their acquisitions for a run next year, or back up the truck to "re-tool" the roster?
LHP David Price, Detroit Tigers
David Price is a potential trade deadline wild card. Detroit is 41-41 and won’t have Miguel Cabrera
is the lineup for a while. Price is an impending free agent likely in
line for a $150 million-plus deal on the open market. It would be a
similar situation to Cueto in Cincinnati, except the Tigers seemingly
have no plans for a rebuild and at the very least still have a
reasonable shot to make the playoffs. Price is an elite starter and may
even rank higher than Cueto to a lot of teams, but the Tigers value his
remaining 15 starts much higher than the Reds value Cueto’s and may even
have some hope of keeping him around beyond this season.
Price is going to get a huge pay day. The question is as a rental player, he won't get much in return. If a club can negotiate an extension prior to a trade, then the Tigers can get great value in a deal. Like the next arm, it seems Price wants to reach the open market to find his true worth.
RHP Jeff Samardzija, Chicago White Sox
Jeff Samardzija is an impending free agent and the White Sox’s
on-the-fly rebuild hasn’t gone much better than the Padres’ overhaul.
Samardzija isn’t on the same level as Hamels, Cueto, or Price, but it
wouldn’t be surprising if plenty of teams prefer him to Shields (and
Shields’ remaining contract). After a poor start Samardzija headed into
the All-Star break with a 2.40 ERA and 39/8 K/BB ratio in his last 45
innings and he’s gone at least seven innings in 11 of 13 starts since
May 1.
The Shark has been telling the world for years he wants to test the free agent market. He turned down $105 million to stay with the Cubs. Whether he is worth a $100 million plus deal after the past two seasons is an open question. He goes into the half season rental trade pile.
LHP Scott Kazmir, Oakland A’s
Another impending free agent, Scott Kazmir has a 3.18 ERA in 49
starts for the A’s since signing a two-year, $22 million deal last
offseason. Leaving his final start of the first half with triceps
soreness is a worry, but Kazmir is expected to be fine and with the A’s
at 41-50 the 31-year-old left-hander figures to be available.
Contenders don't trade for another team's trash.
RHP Mike Leake, Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati’s other free agent-to-be starter, Mike Leake lacks the
upside of Cueto and the other names on this list. However, he’s also
younger than everyone else at 27 and has a 3.94 ERA in 1,006 career
innings with similar numbers this season. Leake isn’t someone contending
teams would want to headline their playoff rotation, but he’s a solid,
innings-eating mid-rotation option.
Leake is someone who could sign a short two year extension at market value, then get a bigger deal before the age of 30. It depends on where he wants to play if he goes straight to free agency.
