It is rare to find an aggressive team using speed as a weapon.
Cincinnati Reds outfielder Billy Hamilton is single-handedly bringing back one of the most exciting feats in Major League Baseball, the stolen base.
On Monday night, Hamilton
stole four bases against the Minnesota Twins giving him 40 for the
season. The second-year outfielder is now on pace to steal 86 bases,
which would make him the first player to steal at least 80 bases in a
single season since Rickey Henderson (93) and Vince Coleman (81) both
did it in 1988.
But what is really amazing is
that 86 stolen bases may actually be a low bar for Hamilton. He has stolen more than 100 in the minor leagues. He's
getting better at stealing bases as the season goes on, and he is still
not very good at the most important aspect of base thievery: getting on
base.
On base percentage (OBP) is one of those sabermetrics that new wave GMs like on their roster. But without a corresponding recognition for the stolen base to move runners into scoring position, it still takes a walk or base hit to move them around the base paths. And considering the average team hits .250 or so, that is only a one in four chance to advance a runner from first to second.
Scouts will tell you the one thing teams cannot teach players is speed. You either have it or you do not. Speed on the base paths makes the opposing pitcher think about runners. Any distraction to a pitcher's concentration is a plus for the batting team. Small advantages can create big innings.
So why has the stolen base been downplayed by teams? Teams are looking for more rounded players. Normally a speed merchant is usually a good field, no hit narrow skill set player. Teams are looking for five tool players who can hit for average, power and drive in runs. In some ways, the Earl Weaver three run HR strategy is still in vogue, even when hitters are getting dominated by pitchers this year.
Manufacturing runs through steals, hit and run plays, taking an extra base on an outfield hit are all fading from the team's fundamental playbooks. Teams don't teach base running fundamentals. Look at how many stupid running plays you see in an average game. Players should never run themselves into an easy tag out. But it happens all the time. And players have no idea how to slide into a base, or to avoid a tag.
A base stealer is a valuable commodity. But no one seems to really care to exploit one of the game's rules, except Hamilton and the Reds.
