Jeff Samardzija bet on himself this year. He desperately wanted to get into the free agent market at the end of the season to capture one big money contract. He allegedly turned down an $85 million offer from the Cubs. Then the Cubs traded him to Oakland in a package that landed Addison Russell.
The White Sox traded for Samardzija in the hopes that he would be the right handed #2 starter on a team built to win this year. Both notions have failed terribly.
Samardzija, 30, has made 30 starts this season. He is 9-13, 5.27 ERA, 1.354 WHIP and negative 0.6 WAR.
By our estimation, Samardzija has cost himself at least $49 million. He was looking for ace money ($22 million/year) but he will not be in the class of a Greinke or Price. A #2 starter who is young may command $15 million/year. A very good veteran #3 starter may get around $12 million.
In fact, Samardzija has the current track record to be classified more as a #4 starter than a #2. We estimate the Shark may be fielding offers of 3 years/$36 million this off-season based on this year's performance.
But that may be even high. Jason Hammel, the Cubs #3 starter (who has had his recent troubles) is 8-6, 3.73 ERA, 1.149 WHIP and 1.8 WAR. Hammel, 33, will be making $9 million in 2016.
Joe Maddon has been betting on his own magic to lead the Cubs to the playoffs. But he is getting caught up in his player moves on the field which leads to Dusty Baker like bullpen decisions. Maddon seems to have decided to ride Grimm, Strop and Rondon through September even though he has many more arms in the pen when a starter falters. Why he did not start Richards or Wada for the "bullpen" game is debatable; but now in the heat of the wild card race, he is not using Hunter, Edwards, Wada, Ramirez, or Medina hardly at all.
Maddon may not trust most of his bullpen arms, but in September you have to or things will unravel. The Cubs are really down to a two man rotation, Arrieta and Lester. Hammel Hendricks, and Haren are struggling to get through 5 innings a start. You need fresh arms to eat up innings to get to Rondon in the 9th.
He has gotten his position players to buy in to the platoon, "match up" situations even though Schwarber should be playing more since his bat is the most consistent weapon at the top of the line up. Maddon has more pieces to add late in a game for defensive purposes (Baez, LaStella, Jackson). He needs to put as much attention into making the bullpen as strong as his bench.
