MASH UNIT

Did Theo's parents want to become a doctor? A hospital administrator?
Because he keeps running an expensive and dumb MASH unit.

But his latest signing makes absolutely no sense at all:

Former A's pitcher Kendall Graveman is not likely to pitch in 2019. He underwent Tommy John surgery this last July and was non-tendered by  Oakland in November. The Chicago Cubs just signed the injured free agent $575,000 anyway. The Cubs have a history of signing unsigned, injured players to pay for their year of rehab. But why? The player would have to do that on his own. I am not aware of any other major league team signing injured players NOT to play them.

This deal is being sold as a long-term return for Chicago. Not necessarily in 2019, but in 2020. While Graveman’s contract will pay him just more than half a million dollars to rehab, it’s the player option for $3 million going into next year’s off-season is the alleged selling point for both sides.



The deal gives the 28-year-old RHP a little more than a full year to get himself healthy and prove that he can pitch the way he did from 2015-17 when he posted a 4.11 ERA over 407 innings with 255 strikeouts and a WHIP of 1.359. But those numbers are not stellar for a starting pitcher.


If for some reason Graveman can make it back in 2019, the Cubs will give him a payday of about $2 million, according to Fancred’s Jon Heyman.

But here is the problem: TJ surgery rehab averages 19 months. At best, he comes back mid-September to throw in a couple of games to get $2 million?????  Even if he does not pitch but is fully recovered, why did the Cubs not keep a TEAM OPTION to sign him for 2020?  Graveman can take the Cubs money, get healthy and walk away into the free agent market to make more money as a STARTING pitcher. Do the Cubs think they are "buying" his loyalty for a half million dollars? Think again. If Graveman does not return to form, which is possible, then he gets to stick the Cubs with the option of $3 million more to continue to rehab or sit out another season.

It is stupid to pay a free agent money to rehab when you can spend the major league minimum for a player who will actually be on the major league roster in 2019 (i.e. a player like Bote).

The Cubs have done some strange things this off-season, but this move is absolutely the dumbest thing the front office has done. The team stated it is short of financial capital to make moves this off-season, but this signing is literally throwing money at a player who cannot contribute anything of meaningful value in 2019.

WHITE SOX FREE AGENCY

The 2019 White Sox have a payroll of around $34 million. The rebuild has stripped the club of most of its veteran contracts. So, in theory, the team is poised to spend money on free agents. However, during Reinsdorf's tenure, the team has only spent $64 million total on one player (Jose Abreu).

But the buzz from the Winter Meetings has been that the White Sox have been talking to the superstar free agents like Bryce Harper. Most people scoff at the prospect of a superstar signing with a 100 loss team.

But the real bottom line for superstars is to go where the money is because
that is why they have high power agents.

There is growing case that teams like the White Sox are the only big dollar landing
spots for Harper, Machado, Kuechel, etc. If the White Sox want a marquee player
to be the face of the franchise, they can pay him and still not even break an $80 million
payroll because of the rebuild. They can be selling (like the Cubs did with Lester) all the
great (pitching) prospects in the minors so the turnaround will be quick.

The Sox drew 1.6 million fans in 2017. If Harper adds 5,000/game attendance (405,000)
the gross revenue could increase by $20 million (based on 2017 average cost to attend game)
which would be 2/3 of Harper's salary.

High attendance high payroll clubs like the Cubs do not have any ball park revenue growth
to justify signing a big money free agent.  Signing Harper would not increase attendance revenues at Wrigley Field. 

Would a superstar like Harper want to be the "brand" of the White Sox. Clearly, if he was, he would get local endorsement deals and his No. 34 jersey would be a top seller. But those in Washington think Harper's personality does not fit that role. He wants to be plugged into a veteran, high win team who can win a championship or two. That is why he has been trolling the Cubs to sign him so he would not have to "carry" the team.

There may be a mystery team in the Harper sweepstakes. For example, the Giants are saying they are in a state of change. They are willing to entertain offers on Bumgartner. They have only 12 veterans on the roster but the projected payroll for 2019 is around $175 million. Adding a $30 million player is feasible to be under the luxury tax threshold, but you could spend the same amount and acquire 5 or 6 second tier free agents to actually create a competitive roster.

Harper's agent, Scott Boras, is still playing the preachy waiting game. It did not work well for last year's client, J.D. Martinez, who signed a team friendly deal with Red Sox prior to the start of spring training. One would think an agent would want to get a deal done sooner than later because teams are now more focused on trading for roster changes than signing free agents.

MADDON SPEAKS

At a charity event in Florida, the Tampa Bay Times caught up with Joe Maddon.

He had several things to say about his new approach in 2019, the status of Jim Hickey and not having a contract extension.

Maddon says he plans a significant change for next year in his managing style with a shift to more on field coaching work, which is apparently tied to baseball ops president Theo Epstein saying he expects Maddon to be "re-energized" by the challenges after last season's disappointing finish.
"That will be the part that will be  different," Maddon said. "I've always kind of stayed free of coaching because I really want to stay out of coaches' way so they can do their job. I've always felt that is the right way to do it. But this year I'm going to get a little more hands-on involved in actually coaching. I think that's where the comment came from. …. I actually want to do less before the game talking to the media and whatever and try to get on the field more often."

Maddon said last week's departure of pitching coach Jim Hickey was not health related but said he couldn't get into specifics of what the "personal reasons" were. "He's fine," Maddon said. "He's not ill. His health is fine."

When asked about his lack of a contract extension, Maddon was nonplussed. He compared the situation as being a "free agent" not a "lame duck."  He compares the situation to Manny Machado and Bryce Harper playing out their contract to get a new, better one. Players often do better in "contract years."  Maddon is not worried about his future.

The three takeaways from the interview:

1. Maddon left too much coaching decisions to his staff in 2018. There will be no excuses for the 2019 results. He is going to take a more active approach in all phases of the players approach and execution. Whether he can get back to developmental basics with his players is going to be interesting.

2. Maddon was not phased by Hickey's departure or bitter by it. Perhaps there was something non-baseball related in the move. Maddon will now have new hitting and pitching coaches for the third year in a row. But he did not deflect it as a criticism of the organization or management.

3. He still wants to manage. He wants to succeed with the Cubs. He is preparing his 2019 campaign like a superstar free agent in his contract year. He is managing for a new contract, with the Cubs or some other organization.

BRYANT TO WALK

Multiple reports having Kris Bryant turning down a $200 million extension offer from the Cubs.

Bryant's agent, Scott Boras, is looking for his MVP winner in three years to hit the open market. A market, which two years ago, thought Bryce Harper would potentially reach the $400 million mark. But Boras and other top agents hit the wall last season when the free agent market tanked on star players. Harper's market value has plummeted with the misfortunes of the Nationals. Being a diva and not a five tool player has hurt Harper's valuation. But the market makers, the large big budget teams, are now more concerned about staying under the luxury tax or spending caps to bankrupt their draft picks and international pool money.

For the Cubs to even offer Bryant such a deal after his weak 2018 campaign is telling; someone in management thinks the Cubs window of opportunity for championships is longer than three years. But to offer any player $200 million is a risky proposition. Bryant has had various injuries that kept him out of the lineup for 60 games. Most troublesome is a shoulder injury for which rest did not help. It screwed up his batting mechanics to the point where he became a weak singles hitter. The Cubs do not need another .275 BA, big money singles hitter (i.e. Heyward.)

Player salaries continued to rocket northward from 2009 to 2016. In 2009 free agency, a star player would receive approximately $1.3 million/WAR. By 2012, the value increased to $3.3 million. It peaked around $6 million/WAR. Last off-season, J.D. Martinez had a 4.2 WAR. He was one of the few power hitting free agents. After a long wait, Boston signed him for decrease in his asking price, around $5.6 million/WAR. Other free agents got less.

Bryant and his agent are still miffed that their grievance on manipulating service time cost Bryant an earlier escape into free agency. But the Cubs did pay him more money than the minimum prior to arbitration eligibility. The Cubs have paid record arb awards to Bryant. He will make from $14 to 16 million in 2019. If you look at Martinez's Red Sox valuation, Bryant only had 1.9 WAR in 2018. That would equate to only a $10.4 million 2019 salary. Bryant's 2019 salary is still based on "talent" and not "performance," something Theo Epstein was in general bitter about his team during the post-season press conference. He had earned a record for a first-year arbitration-eligible player $10.85 million in 2018.

To offer Bryant $20 million/year extension means that the Cubs would not exercise the option on Hamels. The team would have to shed more money to keep under the salary cap, probably packaging Russell ($3 million), Schwarber ($1.3 million) and Chatwood ($12.5 million) in order to pay for Bryant's extension. All three of those Cub players are at their lowest trade value. They may have gone stale from their prospect-scouting talent projections based on recent performance.

Boras may still be misreading the future of MLB. The bottom of the market could crash in the next three years because MLB cannot count on a billion dollar national television deal. MLB teams cannot reasonably believe they will get a billion dollar windfall by creating their own Yankee network or Dodgers channel because cable operators are bleeding to death by cord cutters who refuse to pay for sports channels. Boras and other agents may think smart owners may cash out their investment in the next few years so some new rich guy will come to the table ready to spend money for "star" players.  So the odds are that Bryant will take a dangerous jog down the path of free agency.

DODGING A BULLET

Sometimes, the best move is not to make a move.

As Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports writes, one of the biggest spring training stories is the one about the "hottest" can't miss free agent to hit the market being a gigantic disappointment.

"Shohei Otani did not have a “great outing” in his final start of the preseason,  unless the definition of great outing has changed since the calendar turned. One official who saw it summed it up as: “He looked pretty much like he’s looked all spring.” The struggles of Otani since he arrived stateside have been glaring. There are plenty of ways to describe his lack of fastball velocity and difficulty commanding the pitch Saturday against a coterie of minor leaguers. * * * *  Lost amid the fact that (he) looks helpless at the plate (3 for 28 in games) and talented but raw on the mound (more runs allowed than outs registered) is that he remains an incredible talent who is under team control for the next six years  at enormously depressed prices."

Gone are the Babe Ruth, two-way player, comparisons.

Otani may turn it around . He could be just having culture shock. Or he has to get up to speed to MLB players and coaching styles. 

But it is hard to believe the observations in spring training were so far off from the glowing scouting reports that had all teams, especially Theo Epstein, wanting to sign this guy.

Lack of velocity on his fastball . . . . bad sign.

Lack of command on his pitches . . . really bad sign.

Looks hopeless at the plate . . .  horrible.

Just think that if the Cubs had signed Otani, there would have been no money left to sign Darvish. And Otani would have been like Jason Heyward, a big money contract that has to play some outfield. That would have pushed Ian Happ to AAA Iowa at the start of the season. It would have been a cascade of failure.

YU ASKED FOR IT

The Cubs have now replaced starters Jake Arrieta and John Lackey with Yu Darvish and Tyler Chatwood.

Is it good enough?

The Astros won the World Series with a starting rotation that had the following performance:

Fiers 8-10, 5.22 ERA, -0.6 WAR
Morton 14-7, 3.62, 1.8 WAR
Kuechel 14-5, 2.90 ERA, 3.9 WAR
Peacock 13-2, 3.00 ERA, 3.0 WAR
McCullers 7-4, 4.25 ERA 0.9 WAR
Verlander 5-5, 1.06 ERA, 1.8 WAR.

Astros rotation core:  63 wins (of 101 total), 9.8 WAR.

The Cubs new rotation:

Lester, 13-8, 4.33 ERA, 1.0 WAR
Darvish 10-12, 3.86 ERA, 3.8 WAR
Hendricks 7-5, 3.03 ERA, 3.3 WAR
Quintana 11-11, 4.15 ERA, 2.2 WAR
Chatwood 8-15, 4.69 ERA, 2.1 WAR.

The Cubs rotation core: 49 wins, 12.4 WAR.

The key to the Astros success was the fact that they had four bullpen pitchers with ERAs under 3.00 who could close out games.

As for the Darvish contract, under the old WAR valuation standard, his 3.8 WAR equates to a value of $20.9 million/season. The Darvish contract averages $21 million per season. Apparently, the Cubs offered the 6th year to get under the luxury cap and to get the deal done. One could suspect that the Brewers and/or Twins offered Darvish $125 million so the Cubs upped the ante by only a small amount.

The Darvish deal does help stabilize the pitching rotation which is still extremely thin in the minors. Eddie Butler, who is out of options, may have to kept in the bullpen or be lost after spring training.

The Darvish signing keeps the Cubs as expected divisional champs in the NL Central.

TAPPING THE KEG

The Milwaukee Brewers have clearly indicated that they are "all in" for the 2018 season.

The Brew Crew has traded for disgruntled Marlin outfielder Christian Yelich in a deal which gives back four prospects to Florida.

The 26-year-old Yelich hit .282/.369/.439, with 18 home runs, over 695 plate appearances with the Marlins last season. He should slot in as Milwaukee’s everyday center fielder, and may be the club’s leadoff man in 2018. Yelich is young, productive and under cost control through 2021. The move not only gives the Brewers a star-caliber center fielder, but one at a minimal cost for years to come.

The cost for Yelich wasn’t cheap. Milwaukee gave up four players in the deal, including their number one prospect, Lewis Brinson (#16 in MLB) .Also in the deal are outfielder Monte Harrison, their No. 5 prospect (#75 in MLB), infielder Isan Diaz their No. 9 prospect and Jordan Yamamoto, according to Baseball America.

Brinson, 23, is the key to the deal. He has limited major league experience, but he has hit .287/.353/.502. Brinson is considered major-league ready, and should have an opportunity to be a full-time starter with the Marlins in 2018. Harrison, Diaz and Yamamoto have yet to play above High A so they’ll likely spend 2018 in the minors.

Then, the Brewers made a surprising move by signing outfielder Lorenzo Cain to a five year, $80 million contract. The Brewers now have a glut of outfield talent: Ryan Braun, Domingo Santana, Keon Broxton and Brett Phillips. The surplus of outfielders means the Brewers can trade one in a deal to get a quality starting pitcher if they cannot land free agents Jake Arrieta or Yu Darvish (for whom reports said has been given an offer by the club).

Cain had a great season with the Royals in 2017. He hit .300, 15 HR, 49 RBI, 26 SB and a 5.3 WAR. Paired with Yelich, who hit .282, 18 HR, 81 RBI, 16 SB and 3.9 WAR, Milwaukee may have the best outfield in the NL with Santana hitting .278, 30 HR,85 RBI, 15 SB and 3.0 WAR.

The Brewers were in the hunt late into last season. The new additions have dramatically improved their chances at a wild card or division title.

MACHO MACHO MAN

Manny Machado is a very good baseball player. He is in the last year on his Orioles' contract. He will hit the free agent market at the end of 2018 with Bryce Harper as one of the best available free agents.

Last season he hit .259, 33 HR, 95 RBI, 9 SB, .310 OBP and 3.5 WAR.  His career WAR is 27.9.

He wants to play shortstop instead of third base. At the Winter Meetings, his name surfaced around the time of the Giancarlo Stanton rumors. Apparently, Baltimore was shopping their star player to gauge the trade market.

So casting a fat worm in a slow free agent pond made news. The surprising fact that the Cubs and White Sox made offers for Machado.

The White Sox are in full re-build mode. The team would have to give up two quality pitching prospects to rent Machado for one season makes no sense (unless you sign him to a long term contract). But the White Sox have never guaranteed more than $69 million in any deal. Machado will be looking to break the $200 million mark (he will only be 26 when he hits free agency). Yes, the White Sox have ten quality arms in the minors so they can trade from strength. But on the other hand, pitching is so scarce it may be more valuable to hold on to the top prospects.

The Cubs trading for Machado makes even less sense. Why would you give up three years of contract control of a Baez or Russell for a one-year of Machado? The Cubs have the bats if the current players live up to their potential. If the Cubs have $200 million to toss around next off-season (which is doubtful), reports have their target being Harper and not Machado. And the fact that Rizzo, Bryant, Hendricks and other core members will have contract increases plays a major factor against the Cubs signing an expensive free agent.

Currently, the Orioles have cooled the trade speculation. But apparently the White Sox made the best offer but it was rejected by Baltimore whose owner tends not to let good players be traded off his roster.

It is true that the White Sox need good hitting prospects to balance out their system. It is true that the Cubs need top pitching prospects to fill in gaping needs. In theory, the Cubs and White Sox are perfect trade partners but the Quintana deal was a once in a decade thing.

If Machado gets traded, it will be at the trade deadline if the Orioles are woefully out of the pennant race. But the odds favor Machado ending his contract term in Baltimore.

A LEFTY QUESTION MARK

The Cubs signing lefty Brett Anderson for $3.5 million with incentives to make a $10 million pitcher is another exhibit on how desperate the team is to get starting pitching depth.

In 8 big league seasons, Anderson has only started 30 games twice. And in his 8 big league seasons, he has only had one good year, in 2015, when he went 10-9 3.69 ERA. He has a career 7.3 WAR (0.9125 career average WAR). He is a career 38-43, 3.86 ERA, 1.318 WHIP.

He is injury prone. He only was in a few games last season. Anderson, who’ll turn 29 on February 1st, made just four major league starts last year after missing the bulk of the season due to back surgery.

Reports indicate that Anderson, if he is healthy, will compete with Mike Montgomery for the 5th starter spot. Montgomery looks to be the clubhouse leader by a wide margin due to his end of season and post-season record. Back injuries are tricky conditions as they tend to flare up over time. Anderson is just 28 but is coming off his second back surgery in three years, having undergone an arthroscopic procedure during spring training last year.

The Cubs need to have eight quality starters in camp. They only will have six actively seeking a 25 man roster spot. With the pitching market must be so thin, it is still strange that Jason Hammel has not received any offers. Hammel went 15-10 in 30 starts, with an 3.83 ERA and 1.1 WAR for the Cubs. He was bought out of his option in November. Hammel struggled at the end of last season (which was his habit) so he was not on the post-season roster. But considering the lack of experienced starters on the market, the Cubs selecting an injured pitcher over Hammel puts a label "damaged" goods on his back (is it a clubhouse attitude issue? a mechanical breakdown issue? a financial issue?) From an objective analysis, Hammel appears to be a more reliable pitcher than Anderson.

OVERPAY?

Did the Cardinals overpay to sign Dexter Fowler?

St. Louis signed the Cubs World Series centerfielder for $82.5 million/5 year contract.

Fowler, 30, was a valuable lead off hitter for the Cubs. And once the team figured out that he was playing too shallow in center, Fowler's defensive metrics improved dramatically. He went from a 2.2 WAR to a 4.2 WAR in 2016.

But one could temper his improvement as being Wrigley Field bias. Fowler's career WAR is only 18.1 over 9 seasons. 35.6 percent of his career WAR is attributed to just the past two seasons.

Many fans do not care what teams spend on players because it is not their money. But that is a narrow view. Teams have tighter baseball budgets. League revenue may be great but it is suspect with the sudden decline in cable television ratings and advertising shifting to other platforms. If your team overpays for a player, it cuts down the available budget to sign other key players to make a contending team. Also, it forces the team to find more revenue, usually from the fans. Example, the Cubs raising ticket prices for 2017  by an average of 19.1 percent.

So how did the Cardinals value Fowler?

First, as a subtraction from the divisional winner, Cubs. Just as the Cubs took away Jason Heyward and John Lackey from the Cardinal roster, the Cards pull a piece from the Cubs roster to make it weaker (on paper).

Second, the Cardinals need a steady, experienced lead off hitter. Traditional lead off hitters (high OBP, speed) are harder to find. Fowler is not quite traditional, but makes up for it with more power than an normal lead off hitter.

Third,  $82.5 million deal equals approximately 14.0 WAR. Over the life of the contract, Fowler would have to average 2.8 WAR per season to hit the $82.5 million value. In his eight full seasons, he has only hit that mark twice in his career or 25% of the time. If you take his last 8 seasons of WAR (18.4) you have 2.3 WAR/season. The premium appears to be 0.5 WAR/season or about $14.75 million or almost an entire season of potential dead money.

In baseball free agent contracts, some players are willing to discount an annual salary to get more guaranteed years. This is especially true in late career two-three year deals. But in Fowler's case, this is his last peak contract. He did not discount his current performance for a future guarantee. With Adam Eaton traded to the Nationals, there were few proven center fielders left on the market. Fowler leveraged the shortage to his advantage.

Fourth, Fowler does bring a level of intangibles to a team. He was well liked in the Cub locker room. He has a friendly smile and is a fan favorite. In St. Louis, some media writers opine that his presence will help solidify the community. But just by signing Fowler is not going to turn that 17.5 game deficit from the Cubs 2016 mark to zero. But Fowler is an upgrade in CF from their existing player roster so one cannot clearly say that the Cardinals overpaid for Fowler.

ARRIETA RESPONSE

When Stephen Strasburg did the unusual by agreeing to a long term extension with the Nationals instead of taking a chance in free agency, attention turned to Scott Boras' other client, the currently unworldly Jake Arrieta.

Arrieta was blunt to the Chicago media.

"Aces get seven years," Arrieta said of recent big name pitchers who signed mega deals. "I'll let you judge that. Just look at the numbers. You want to be paid in respect to how your peers are paid. I don't think that changes with any guy you ask. It happens around baseball every year."

The Strasburg decision seems to be "client" driven, meaning that the baseball agent was giving marching orders to get a deal done and not the agent driving the player's future.

Arrieta's words appear to be more "agent" driven - - - that Arrieta looks forward to get paid like his peers - - - in free agency.

And here is Arrieta's argument for looking for a major pay day:

He is in his 6th pro season. He is 30 years old. He has massed a career 17.2 WAR (with the Cubs 5.3, 8.7 and 2.1 in 2014, 2015, 2016). He has only been paid $15.5 million. Under WAR contract valuation, Arrieta's performance value was $86 million. In other words, he has outperformed his contract by five and one half times.

In contrast, Strasburg is also in his 6th season. Strasburg is only 27 years old. He has a career WAR of 8.8. He had been paid $25 million prior to the extension. His past WAR contract valuation was $44 million, so he was also underpaid by that standard. But Strasburg has leveraged his 59-37, 3.07 ERA career numbers into $175 million, almost four times the valuation metric.

Arrieta will be looking in 2017 for $30 million per season (6.0 WAR valuation) or more for seven years or $210 million. That would bring the back end of his contract into dead money years of his late 30s. Yahoo Sports' Jeff Passan has written extensively about the sudden production fall-off of pitchers in the 30s. That is why long term pitching contracts are not favored by the owners. The Cubs probably will do more than a 4 year deal with Arrieta.

But Arrieta is looking for his one great last contract without a hometown discount.

But a better comparison is David Price. Price, 30 years old, is in his 8th major league season. He signed a 7 year, $217 million contract this off-season. He is at the magic $30 million plus per season contract status.  Price career numbers are good: 108-57, 3.19 ERA and 28.5 WAR. His past performance value was $146 million. With the new Boston deal, Price is struggling at 4-1, 6.75 ERA and negative 0.7 WAR.

So what is Arrieta worth?

Whatever a team is willing to pay. Arrieta's recent history would put him more in the Price category, but injury history and Arrieta's recent two grinding starts make some think more Strasburg.  The difference between those two contracts is $42 million.

Current Cubs management has painted itself in a corner. It hit a home run with the Scott Feldman trade for Arrieta and Pedro Strop. However, the draft strategy of taking the best bats has given the team a "core" of young players who will need to be paid during any megadeal of Arrieta (plus Lester's deal). I don't see the Cubs willing to set aside $330 million for two pitchers from 2017 on when you have to think expensive extensions for Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant.

But the price of quality starting pitching continues to go up. The only way to counter that is to develop a young, solid core of pitchers from your own system. This is the Achilles heel for the Cubs: they have not developed a young arm under Theo-Jed. They have trapped themselves in finding a rotation through free agency.

The Cubs have one more full season of Arrieta control. If the Cubs cannot work out an extension with Arrieta this off-season, the Cubs have two options: keep him for his walk year or trade him at the Winter meetings for young, controllable, major league ready pitching. Some of these decisions will be determined by the new CBA (whether draft picks will still be at risk for qualifying offers).

It may depend on whether the Cubs win a championship in 2016. If that is the case, there is less pressure on ownership or management to keep Arrieta for 2017. If the Cubs fall short, then the pressure to win the championship in 2017 is expanded ten fold. Arrieta would have to be kept on board to anchor the pitching staff.

Without a doubt, in any situation, Arrieta is in the cat bird's seat.

STRASBURG EXTENSION

He will still be the 6th highest paid pitcher in MLB history. But why did Washington's ace pitcher accept a long term extension early in his free agent walk year?

It was a baffling move from all sides. The  Nationals have agreed to a seven-year, $175 million extension with RHP Stephen Strasburg.  Strasburg is a Scott Boras client. Boras has the reputation of getting his clients to free agency where he can leverage the biggest deals (by getting teams to bid against each other). With an extension, Boras loses leverage to make a long term deal.

For Washington, it is a seven year risk based on Strasburg's injury history. The ace pitcher has underperformed throughout his career. He will soon be on the 7th anniversary of his Tommy John surgery. The Nats had said in the past that their major concern with any pitcher post-TJ is in year 7: they don't think the repaired ligament will hold after seven full MLB seasons. There is proof of this by the rash of pitchers having second TJ surgeries. So the Nationals are going against their own medical philosophy to make this extension.

In order to make a deal, both sides must receive something they value. For Strasburg, it is guaranteed money and an opt-out. For the team, it is deferring most of the guaranteed money.

According to the Washington Post, Strasburg will take home a team friendly  $15 million annually  from 2017 through 2023, excluding bonuses which could reach $7 million.  The remaining $70 million will be deferred without interest and paid out in $10 million installments from 2024 through 2030. The team is spinning this extension at a "present value" of only $162 million.

Strasburg can opt out after its third and fourth seasons. If he can stay healthy, he can be a premier free agent in 2019 at age 30. But the real value to Strasburg, given his history, is this deal acts like an insurance policy against another major injury. If his arm gets hit by a bus tomorrow, he will get paid a lot of money through 2030.

In additional minor give and takes, Strasburg won’t receive no-trade protection but the team got no provisions relating to arm health to discount any future payouts.

The question remains why would Strasburg forego free agency? One would believe that he would have asked for a $200 million type David Price deal. Some could say that Strasburg did not want to "bet" on himself going into this off-season. Which is odd concerning in his first seven starts, he is 5-0, 2.76 ERA, 1.041 WHIP. But his body or his mind must have told him to cut a long term deal now when things are going well to take off any future financial pressures on his family.

The Nationals must believe that they got a star player at a market discount. But other teams see the revenue horizon being darker than today. Cable television model, which fueled the mega-local broadcast rights deals in the past few years, is going by the wayside. Younger fans consume their entertainment on demand and not by sitting to watch a designated game at a designated time on a designated channel. The big money spenders like ESPN have started to purge high priced talent and reign in expenses since their carriage charges are being balked at by the cable and satellite operators. In seven years, the MLB broadcast revenue could be cut in half which would make even Strasburg long term deal seem very expensive.

SURPRISING TWIST

Everyone reported last Tuesday that Dexter Fowler had agreed to a three year, $35 million deal with the Orioles.


So it was quite strange to have the Cubs announce two days later that Fowler had re-signed with Chicago.


For a lot less money.


Fowler denies that he had a verbal agreement with the Orioles for 3 years/$35 million.
ESPN reports the one-year deal with the Cubs, which came together late Wednesday when Fowler drove down from Las Vegas to take his physical, is for $8 million. It also includes a $9 million mutual option for 2017, which the Cubs can buy out for $5 million.


Cubs president Theo Epstein and agent Casey Close stayed in touch throughout the off-season after Fowler turned down the Cubs' one-year, $15.8 million qualifying offer. But Fowler said another deal to his liking never came about with another team.


Now Baltimore is notorious for being quite picky over player physicals. Yovani Gallardo just restructured his free agent deal with Baltimore because the team allegedly "failed" his physical. Some think the O's are extremely cautious on free agent deals. Others think it is a staged ploy to renegotiate with a player.


But at the end of free agency market with the start of spring training, rosters are pretty much set. Fowler had been the odd man out in the outfield free agent version of musical chairs. In Baltimore, he would have been slated as their left fielder. With the Cubs, he is back to last year's position, CF.


The signing works for the Cubs at many levels. First, it moves Jason Heyward back to where he wants to play: RF. A happy Heyward is a productive Heyward which is what the Cubs need this season. Second, it solves the lead-off problem. Fowler will return to the spot where he scored 102 runs. Third, even though Heyward could play CF better than Fowler, Heyward is much better RF than Soler by miles. Fowler and Heyward in the outfield is an upgrade over Heyward and Soler. Fourth, it moves Soler to LF in a probable platoon with Schwarber.


In order "to make it work," Epstein had to trade Chris Coghlan to Oakland for a bad pitcher, Aaron Brooks, who had a 6.71 ERA in 9 starts last season. This trade was clearly a salary dump of $4.8 million.


This gives Fowler another year with a contender to boost his free agent status after 2016. He has the incentive to match or improve on his 2015 campaign.

THE PROBLEM

Adam Eaton was the White Sox starting center fielder. For most White Sox fans, Eaton has been a terrible liability since the Sox acquired him from Arizona.

He is a Jekyll and Hyde player. His stats look good on the surface, but fans of daily games saw Eaton running into outs, playing bad defense, missing cut-offs and showing a low situational baseball IQ.

Eaton hit .287, 14 HR, 56 RBI with a 3.9 WAR. That looks pretty good for a lead off hitter.

But that WAR includes a negative 1.1 dWAR.

Clearly, the White Sox are looking to upgrade their outfield and defense talent.

That is why Dexter Fowler has been mentioned as a possible free agent signing.

But Fowler poses two problems. One, it takes Eaton, 27, to the bench. He won't be happy about that.

Two, Fowler signing would cost the White Sox the No. 28 pick in the June draft. The Sox No. 10 pick is protected so this is the Samardzija compensation selection.

The White Sox have enough young pitching in the pipeline to really go after the two best available college hitters in the draft and push them along to the majors like the Cubs did with Bryant and Schwarber.  The No. 28 pick may have more value than Fowler's asking price for a long term deal.

FOWLER

Dexter Fowler was a competent center fielder for the 2015 Cubs.

Fowler, 29, hit .250, 17 HR, 46 RBI, 20 SB, 2.2 WAR. He made $9.5 million in 2015. He turned down a qualifying offer of $15.3 million. So any team besides the Cubs who sign him have to give up a first round draft pick as compensation.

Currently, two teams have been rumored to have interest in Fowler: the Cubs and White Sox. That would seem redundant since the Sox have Adam Eaton in center, and the Cubs stated that Jason Heyward would play center in 2016.

There is also a question of compensation. Fowler thinks he is worth more than the $15.3 million one year offer. He is at the point of getting one good long term deal in his back pocket. But last year's WAR by some accounts put his value more at $12.5 million than $15 million. The Cubs made that offer because the team had not vaulted into the free agent market.

Teams do want to keep their high draft picks because those players can be cheaply controlled for six years. Prime example, Kris Bryant.

Is Fowler worth losing a chance at the next Kris Bryant? That is what keeps GMs up at night.

But if the Cubs re-sign Fowler to play center, it moves Heyward back to his natural position of right field. That makes the Cubs collective outfield defense better than a Schwarber-Heyward-Soler triad.
It would also put Soler on the bench or part of a major trade package (with prospects like Vogelbach, Villaneuva or Szczur) for more starting pitching.

Fowler is a nice player but not worth a 4 year/$65 million contract.

GORDON RETAINED

MLBTR reports that the Royals will retain OF Alex Gordon.

Gordon was one of the top three FA outfielders on the market. But after the pitchers signed their
big deals, the free agent market dried up in December.

So much so that Gordon is taking a contract well below what analysts had predicted he would receive in free agency.
MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan and Yahoo Sports Jeff Passan report the deal is believed to be for four years with a guarantee in the “low-$70MM range,”

Passan wrote that a deal could come together quickly between the two sides, and it appears just that has occurred. An official announcement could come later today, says Flanagan, assuming Gordon passes his physical.

The preliminary figures noted above would appear to suggest that middle ground was found between team and player. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes had credited the veteran with earning power in the five-year, $105MM range entering the winter, and by all appearances there were numerous other teams with serious interest in his services.

Teams have become conservative at this stage of the free agent market. It could be that borderline teams do not want to give up a first round draft choice AND sign a $100 million commitment to an outfielder. The White Sox were among the teams with serious interest. A four year deal is at the far end for ownership's risk level with any player, but it would seem Gordon's decision to stay in KC was to continue with a proven winning team. 

For the sabermetric crowd, Gordon had the most value of the outfield FAs (Cespedes, Upton) because of his high defensive skills, something that teams like the White Sox are desperate to improve.

If Gordon's contract is in the $70 million range, that may drop the market price for Cespedes and Upton below the $100 million mark. That would mark a major turning point in the free agent market.

SERVICE TIME

Service time earned towards free agency was collectively bargained between the players union and MLB. A contract is a contract; a deal is a deal.

Back in May, Kris Bryant's agent groused about the Cubs "holding back" his star player from the major leagues. But it standard procedure of front offices to balance promoting rookies to the major league roster vs. how many "years of control" do they have with the player. Control means cost control.

But Bryant's agent, the boisterous Scott Boras, comes to the annual Winter Meetings with a chip on his shoulder. He again cries foul on how the Cubs treated his star client.

Cubs general manager Jed Hoyer said the club has been aware of the Major League Baseball Players Association action since May. “Nothing’s really changed since then,” Hoyer said. “The fact that the news came out today doesn’t really change anything about where we are. Obviously, we feel like we were in the right, but I’m not going to comment on the case or open this back up.”

“It was filed in May – and to the best of my knowledge – it sits in the same place it has been,” Hoyer said. “It’s something we’ve known about for a long time. And it certainly doesn’t change our impression of the player or his representation at all. We’ve got a great relationship with Kris. We’ve got a great relationship with Scott.”

The Yahoo! Sports report also identified Philadelphia Phillies third baseman Maikel Franco as involved in the grievance process. Franco (170) and Bryant (171) finished just short of the 172 days needed for a full year of service, closing their free-agent windows until after the 2021 season.

Setting service-time clocks for elite young players is essentially viewed as standard operating procedure within front offices and Bryant became a billboard for the issue in spring training.
Bryant – the second overall pick in the 2013 draft – began this year as Baseball America’s No. 1 prospect after hitting .325 with 43 homers and 110 RBI in 2014.

“I think Kris proved his point that he didn’t need any further minor-league (experience),” Boras said during last month’s GM meetings in South Florida. “Unless you can argue the seven games of Triple-A baseball dramatically allowed him to improve, I think he proved his point that he’s an All-Star player and a huge part of a franchise. Our point was that in the ethic of the game, I think it’s good for Kris – and for the fans and everyone (else) – that they understand that the rules of the game often allow teams to do things that are unrelated to the best interests of the team or the true talent evaluation of the player," Boras said.

He added, “It’s perfectly appropriate under the rules for clubs to say that they can do that. I just think you (should) have (better rules), a better ethic to it. Because in the end, we want to make sure our fans know the best players are always playing in the big leagues all the time.”

But it is part of the rules and the teams have a right to use the rules to their benefit.  It is not that Bryant will be starving or not have his own free agency payday down the road. It is not an ethical issue but a contractual one.

And with the current CBA expiring after next season, this topic will be brought up by the players' agents as something that needs to be changed. The owners will fight back, knowing that the "sports bubble" of cable and network television money may soon burst by all the young cable-cutters who are finding entertainment on other technology platforms.

PITCHING VALUE

There is still the report that some team has offered Jeff Samardzija $100 million.

No pitcher of Samardzija's value has signed a $100 million contract. Jordan Zimmermann has been worth 16.7 WAR over the past four seasons -- more than double Samardzija's 6.8 -- and just signed for five years and $110 million.

Based on a contract value of $5.7 million per WAR, Zimmermann's past value has been $95.19 million. He received a 15.5 percent premium in his new Tiger deal. This assumes that he will have the same performance going forward.

$38.76 million is the value of Samardzija's past performance, which is 40.7 percent less than Zimmerman's value. $44.77 million is 40.7 percent of Zimmermann's value.

So why is the report so off the current formula?

First, it could be that this is agent talk to goose up the player's market.

Second, it could be that the agent is looking to other factors such as durability, innings pitched and other advanced metrics to compare Samardzija to more valuable starting pitchers.

However, Zimmermann has #1 ace characteristics and is being paid at that level at $22 million AAV.

Samardzija is not a #1 starter now. He fits into a #3 or #4 starter based on last season with the White Sox.

In a market filled with quality starting pitchers, Samardzija is not expected to bring a premium value to a club's final payroll.

Well, the Giants, having lost Greinke to divisional rival Arizona, stepped up and gave the Shark 5 years/$90 million. At $18 million AAV, Samardzija actually made $5 million more than the Cubs deal he turned down 2 years ago (and having a bad season with the White Sox).

The Giants are paying the equivalent of $13.2 million/WAR for Samardzija which is a 233 percent premium over standard value.

The Shark still is a #3 pitcher in San Francisco after Bumgarner and Cain. Bumgarner will be paid this year $9.75 million for his 4.8 WAR in 2015. Cain is going to be paid $21 million for his negative 0.7 WAR in 2015.

If you think pitching valuations make no sense, then the Giants payroll is a good exhibit.

THE PRICE IS HIGH

David Price is the best starting pitcher available this off-season.

He will probably earn $30 million AAV, i.e. an 8 year/$240 million deal.

The usual suspects for high profile free agents on the Price watch are the Cubs, Rangers, Red Sox and probably a mystery team like the Dodgers, Giants or Yankees.

The Red Sox needed an ace, the Boston Globe first reported that the team signed Price to  a seven-year contract worth $217 million deal.

People had been pushing the Cubs as the favorite, but that does not make a lot of sense.

Baseball Reference's Cubs guaranteed contracts, 2016-2020:

2016: $81.7 million
2017: $61.5 million
2018: $50 million
2019: $55 million
2020: $27.7 million

Most of those last three years are a combination of Jon Lester, Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro. The Cubs will have big arbitration awards to hand out and long-term extensions to sign for players like Jake Arrieta. And there is still the gaping hole in center field to fill.

And the fact that 2020 is the magic year where the Cubs could launch their own network, there is no guarantee that it will be the revenue producing juggernaut people think it could be given the current flux in the cable TV industry.

As previously mentioned, based on reports and educated guesses, the Cubs only have $20 million in new money to spend this off-season for 8 players. Price at $30 million per year will probably get ownership or business side veto under the guise that the Cubs won 97 games without Price. Now, some could argue that the Cubs ticket price increases could net $30 million if the team reaches 3 million attendees at Wrigley, but the ball park and plaza construction projects are in full build mode so any new money will probably be diverted to those priority projects.

It would have been a major surprise if the Cubs can sign Price, without trading away $15-20 million in current salary obligations. But at that point, is it team subtraction by addition of one great pitcher?

POSSIBLE BLUEPRINT

Every team goes into the Winter Meetings with a plan on how to improve their club.

There are critical needs assessments. There are target players to fill those needs.

In the last week, we have heard from various sources, including NY Post writer Joel Sherman and baseball veteran Peter Gammons, on what the Cubs may be up to this off-season.

From an outsider's perspective, here are the Cubs critical needs:

1. New CF/lead off hitter.  Fowler is a free agent who will be seeking a long term contract.

2. #3 starter. As Gammons said, "an innings eater."

3. #4 starter. The starting pitching was a glaring weakness in the post season run.

4. Middle relievers: Cahill, Richard and Hunter are free agents. Wood may try to earn a starting role. This leaves have the bullpen open.

5. Back up Catcher: If the Cubs really want Schwarber to work on his catching skills (since the outfield has been questionable) he needs to spend the winter in the instructional league. If Schwarber is not going to be a serviceable catcher, then the Cubs will need to find Montero's replacement either inside the organization or outside since Ross only has one year left on his deal.

Surprisingly, Sherman and Gammons indicated that the big target for the Cubs this off season will be Royals LF Alex Gordon. Gordon can opt out of his final year, $12.5 million deal. He says he wants to stay with the Royals, but he should command a long term extension at more than the qualifying offer value of $15.8 million.

Gordon, 32, in 104 GP hit .271, 13 HR, 48 RBI, 2 SB and had a 2.8 WAR. That does not seem to be special production for the alleged "best left fielder in the game." He does not meet the critical needs of the team: center field or lead off.

The writers also agree that in order to upgrade pitching, the Cubs will have to go into the market and find several veteran, quality arms for the #3 and #4 slots. Gammons believes that the Cubs will probably trade both Soler and Castro in order to find pitchers. As discussed in a previous post, Soler's trade value is at its highest level due to his post-season performance. Power around the leagues is in short supply, and Soler appears to be a DH candidate. Castro's value was higher a year and half ago, but with a surplus of middle infielders, he is the likely candidate to be moved to another team.

If the Cubs are looking to go into the free agent pitching market, they will not be targeting the big names. Ironically, the type of innings eater (200 IP) would be a Samardzija, whose 2015 performance may have put him in the second tier of value. He may not accept what the Cubs had offered him prior to the trade to Oakland, but his year with the White Sox really devalued his position in the free agent market.

In the free agent center field market, the crop is very thin (it contains two ex-Cubs):

Rajai Davis (age, 35)
Dexter Fowler (30)
Austin Jackson (29)
Justin Maxwell (32)
Colby Rasmus (29)
Shane Robinson (30)
Denard Span (32)
Drew Stubbs (31)

Span was hurt for most of last season, and Stubbs was terrible. Rasmus has turned into a journeyman who hit 25 HR in Houston this year, but batted only .238. This is why Fowler is the cream of the CF crop this off season.