It was only a matter of time when the Truth would leak out about the Cubs disappointing post-championship seasons. Javy Baez recently ran out into the media highway to drop a few bombs on himself and his teammates.
The Associated Press reported that Baez said the Cubs
were lacking last year when it came to their pregame routines and work
ethic. “We had a lot of optional things, not mandatory, and
everyone kind of sat back on that — including me. I wasn’t really going
out there and preparing for the game. I was getting ready during the
game, which is not good,” Baez said. “But this year, I think before the
games, everybody should be out there as a team, stretch as a team, be
together as a team so we can play together.”
Cubs President of
Baseball Operations Theo Epstein said last week he could think of only
two times in 18 years of running major league clubs that he felt “basic
organizational standards for work, preparation and behavior” were not
being met. (One can easily say that was a shot at Joe Maddon's management style, being a "player's manager.")
New
skipper David Ross said at the end of the day, from a manager's
standpoint, coaches try to get players prepared and put them in the best
possible situation to succeed, but baseball has “always been about the
players.”
“So for (Báez) to say that, and saying the group feels
they can turn it up a notch, I mean, that’s a powerful message they are
sending,” Ross said. “This is never about the manager. It never should
be about the manager. When you're in that locker room, the players are
the ones affecting the outcome.”
(Ross is defending Maddon because he is right: players have to take the responsibility themselves to prepare for games.)
If the lack of preparation was a problem, then the front office is also to blame. The baseball executives have spent millions on new analytical labs, new coaches and trainers to tell players how to hit and pitch. Theo hired and fired three batting coaches in three years. We suspect that after a while, the players just tuned out everyone.
Dusty Baker, also a players' manager, often said that he left his players alone in their game preparation. He often cited that the players are "professionals" and professionals know how to act. He was relying on his own experience as a player (in a vastly different time.)
Ozzie Guillen was a vocal leader. But he continually stressed the fundamentals and principles of the game. Before the first game of every series, he scheduled mandatory fielding drills for all his players.
Theo wanted performance over potential in 2019. He did not get it because his players did not get the message. The reason is simple. The lack of any farm system talent and budget constraints means that there is no new players pushing the existing core to play their best. There is no real competition for starting position roster spots. There is a lack of urgency and drive if you know that there is no one on the team ready, willing and able to take your job.
The Cubs organization is in a total mess. Ross brings back the championship cred, but it may not translate to a strict manager berating his friends and former teammates to tow the line. How will he change a culture that has had the players merely going through the motions? It is not that Ross can sit players for not trying hard because he has to win now.
Showing posts with label Maddon. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Maddon. Show all posts
February 17, 2020
October 5, 2019
THE NEXT SKIPPER
The Joe Maddon era is over. He was the most successful modern Cub manager during a five year tenure. But his message failed to get another championship.
There have been references to championship fatigue, "Winner's Traps," etc. After 2016, the Cubs team has been in a slow decline. Expectations were high; player performance was sliding down. Theo Epstein railed against "potential" and "performance" during spring training. He claimed everyday was a playoff game. The Cubs then stumbled out the gate. The Cubs never had a long winning streak to cause separation in the NL Central. All phases of the team faltered down the stretch.
The Cubs have a major decision to make: who will manage the rest of the Cub championship window. The Cubs have two years left before Kris Bryant becomes a free agent. That is the window to win. But the Cubs ownership has tapped out on money as the front office has exceeded the luxury tax threshold (again). For the past two years, Theo's moves have been costly mistakes. What manager wants to come to a team that is financially hand-cuffed and on the decline?
As it was noted by Joe Girardi many times, there are only 30 such jobs available. It is a unique club. You take the opportunity if you can get it. Girardi really wants to manage the Cubs. He was on his own personal, local publicity tour. He has the experience, winning attitude and character to lead a team. He did so in the sports world's toughest market, New York. But he is viewed as an expensive, old school manager.
The trend is to hire an inexperienced former player or executive that the front office can control like a puppet. Teams have invested so much in advanced stats that they are forgetting baseball fundamentals for spreadsheet data.
One has to remember that all of Maddon's coaches were not his hires. The three hitting and pitching coaches the last three seasons have all been management decisions. Theo and Jed Hoyer wanted to impose their philosophies on the team. Clearly, it did not work out well.
Part of the problem has to be that when a young team wins early, they get cocky and complacent. They do not think they have to work hard in order to win. They think they are as good as their championship ring says they are. They think they can just turn it on at any time and win again. But it does not happen. They press and then they fail under the pressure because they did not put in the hard work to repeat.
The Michael Jordan Bulls championship runs were fueled by Jordan's own personal drive to excel at the highest level and to win multiple championships. The 2016 Cubs did not have that drive. They sat on their laurels. Maddon did not make the players accountable for their underperformance.
But part of the blame lies with the front office which provided Maddon with a bad roster. The rotation was no longer a strength as the older pitchers began to break down. The bullpen has always been a mess. When you spend money on closers who cannot throw or who cannot pitch, that is a problem. The team overvalued its core players to the point of having no competitive depth. And the scouting and development departments horribly failed to draft any reliable talent to help the major league club.
A Cub managerial candidate has to consider the health of the team he is expected to lead to victory. There will be other major vacancies this off season (Mets, Angels, Padres, Pirates).
It is expected that the Cubs will hire a first time manager, The reasons are simple: cheaper and controllable. The Cubs are not going to spend $5 million on a proven, veteran manager. The going rate for a first time, no-experience candidate is less than $1 million.
There is an old saying "you get what you pay for." Some out of the blue selections have won (Hinch, Cora). But the new Cubs skipper comes into a clubhouse that has a lot of baggage. The players have not faced the consequences of their performance flaws. There is no one in the minors pushing to take their jobs.
David Ross is expected to be given an offer. Ross was a vocal clubhouse leader. It is one thing to be a player or teammate but it is another to be the boss. It will be difficult to turn his friendships into employer-employee relationships.
If Ross is not the hire, then the Cubs most likely will tap one of their internal executives or advanced scouts to run the team to make an analytical impact on the strategy of the season. Many players have quietly said that they are being overloaded with information before and during games. By having a new skipper being an evangelical leader of the stat age may be a bigger turnoff than Maddon.
There have been references to championship fatigue, "Winner's Traps," etc. After 2016, the Cubs team has been in a slow decline. Expectations were high; player performance was sliding down. Theo Epstein railed against "potential" and "performance" during spring training. He claimed everyday was a playoff game. The Cubs then stumbled out the gate. The Cubs never had a long winning streak to cause separation in the NL Central. All phases of the team faltered down the stretch.
The Cubs have a major decision to make: who will manage the rest of the Cub championship window. The Cubs have two years left before Kris Bryant becomes a free agent. That is the window to win. But the Cubs ownership has tapped out on money as the front office has exceeded the luxury tax threshold (again). For the past two years, Theo's moves have been costly mistakes. What manager wants to come to a team that is financially hand-cuffed and on the decline?
As it was noted by Joe Girardi many times, there are only 30 such jobs available. It is a unique club. You take the opportunity if you can get it. Girardi really wants to manage the Cubs. He was on his own personal, local publicity tour. He has the experience, winning attitude and character to lead a team. He did so in the sports world's toughest market, New York. But he is viewed as an expensive, old school manager.
The trend is to hire an inexperienced former player or executive that the front office can control like a puppet. Teams have invested so much in advanced stats that they are forgetting baseball fundamentals for spreadsheet data.
One has to remember that all of Maddon's coaches were not his hires. The three hitting and pitching coaches the last three seasons have all been management decisions. Theo and Jed Hoyer wanted to impose their philosophies on the team. Clearly, it did not work out well.
Part of the problem has to be that when a young team wins early, they get cocky and complacent. They do not think they have to work hard in order to win. They think they are as good as their championship ring says they are. They think they can just turn it on at any time and win again. But it does not happen. They press and then they fail under the pressure because they did not put in the hard work to repeat.
The Michael Jordan Bulls championship runs were fueled by Jordan's own personal drive to excel at the highest level and to win multiple championships. The 2016 Cubs did not have that drive. They sat on their laurels. Maddon did not make the players accountable for their underperformance.
But part of the blame lies with the front office which provided Maddon with a bad roster. The rotation was no longer a strength as the older pitchers began to break down. The bullpen has always been a mess. When you spend money on closers who cannot throw or who cannot pitch, that is a problem. The team overvalued its core players to the point of having no competitive depth. And the scouting and development departments horribly failed to draft any reliable talent to help the major league club.
A Cub managerial candidate has to consider the health of the team he is expected to lead to victory. There will be other major vacancies this off season (Mets, Angels, Padres, Pirates).
It is expected that the Cubs will hire a first time manager, The reasons are simple: cheaper and controllable. The Cubs are not going to spend $5 million on a proven, veteran manager. The going rate for a first time, no-experience candidate is less than $1 million.
There is an old saying "you get what you pay for." Some out of the blue selections have won (Hinch, Cora). But the new Cubs skipper comes into a clubhouse that has a lot of baggage. The players have not faced the consequences of their performance flaws. There is no one in the minors pushing to take their jobs.
David Ross is expected to be given an offer. Ross was a vocal clubhouse leader. It is one thing to be a player or teammate but it is another to be the boss. It will be difficult to turn his friendships into employer-employee relationships.
If Ross is not the hire, then the Cubs most likely will tap one of their internal executives or advanced scouts to run the team to make an analytical impact on the strategy of the season. Many players have quietly said that they are being overloaded with information before and during games. By having a new skipper being an evangelical leader of the stat age may be a bigger turnoff than Maddon.
August 16, 2019
A SEASON KILLER
"That one is going to leave a mark,” manager Joe Maddon said. Last night's loss was not just a brown streak in the shorts, but an explosive diaper.
The Cubs blew a five run lead against the Phillies. Yu Darvish pitched one of his strongest outings of the year, but a few of us thought he was pulled early by Maddon. This indirectly led to using the bullpen which contributed to the collapse in the 9th.
The 7-5 loss on Bryce Harper's grand slam was the perfect example of what is wrong with the team.
For a long time, we have harped on the issue of playing players out of their natural position. David Bote was playing shortstop. His boot in the 9th opened the door to the huge comeback rally. Bote is not a shortstop. He is an average second baseman at best. But he sweet talked his way into a long term contract as one of Joe Maddon's "super subs."
Maddon is still living in the past (Rays days) when he had a unique asset, Ben Zobrist, who was the stellar utility man who racked up All-Star WAR numbers by playing multiple positions well. But he was in his prime and eager to show his skills. Bote is young but not skilled enough to play short.
Likewise, Ian Happ was a college second baseman. Since his return, he was been terrible at second because he spent all his time in Iowa trying to learn CF so he could platoon with Almora. But since the second base position was a sink hole disaster with Addison Russell, the Cubs traded for Kemp who has his own defensive deficiencies.
Maddon likes the "flexibility" of having players playing multiple positions so he can "rest" some players. But not playing in their natural positions costs the Cubs games. The Phils last night got at least two more outs which were used to complete their comeback rally.
In 2016, the Cubs played fantastic defense. They were number one in baseball. But defense has been spotty all year round. Anthony Rizzo has been a contortionist at first base trying to catch even routine throws.
The bullpen has been a sore point all season. The chronic injuries to Morrow, the implosion of Edwards, the inconsistency of Strop led to wholesale changes in the pen. But those changes were made on the cheap because Theo had already committed half of the payroll budget (approx. $103 million) to the rotation and Chatwood. Six pitchers took up half the budget. But the rotation rarely gave Maddon a six inning outing so the pen was taxed and gassed early on in the season.
Another issue with Maddon is that he has plus and minus relievers. Plus relievers are guys he trusts so he puts them in during tied games or leads. Minus relievers he uses when the Cubs are behind or losing badly. It is a matter of "match ups" he claims, but it is really a trust issue. But since the pen has been bad, he had been using the wrong pitcher in highly leveraged situations. Earlier in the week it was Strop. Last night it was Wick and Holland.
But a lot of the blame rests on the front office. The Cubs current roster construction is all on Theo and Jed. The bench is short and unproductive. The guys they brought in (Delcalso, Maldonando, Kemp, Russell) have been unable to produce consistent above replacement offensive stats. The parade of bad relievers continues to grow. The pitching problem clearly centers on the fact (screamed many times on this blog) that Theo has yet to draft and develop one starting pitcher in five years. Zero.
Instead, Theo's focus was drafting the "best" hitter in the first round to build a core of good young, "controllable" talent. He drafted and promoted quickly Bryant, Schwarber and Almora. But the two most valuable Cubs this season were Hendry draftees, Baez and Contreras.
The final straw may be the fact that Maddon did not get a contract extension after being the best manager the team has had in a century (from a win and loss stand point). The front office keeps saying its is not about wins or losses (which was the refrain during Renteria's era for another reason). But a manager is judged on his team's wins or losses. For good or ill, Maddon got the Cubs a championship. Today, the thought is that he is too old, or the players have stopped listening to him.
In reality, the owner and front office does not want to pay a manager $6 million per season. Theo and Jed would rather have a million dollar puppet in the dugout following their scripted analytic game plans than an old school manager. Is $5 million such a big deal for the Cubs? Apparently so, since the team was handcuffed all season by the Ricketts' decree of not spending more than the $206 million luxury tax cap.
Theo begat the budget woes on himself just as he did in Boston. He has a habit of making a lot of bad money deals. As noted above, six pitchers took up half the budget with underwhelming performances. If you add in the Heyward contract and Morrow's two year dead money absence, one can almost sympathize with the owner about a spendthrift general manager.
For a long time it was apparent that the Cubs, even though good "on paper," were not a championship caliber team. By comparison, the Astros, Dodgers and Yankees (with a record number of player injuries) are far superior in records and statistics. The Cubs are in a dog fight just to try to stay near the top in the NL Central. The lowly Reds have beaten up the Cubs.
But last night's loss was the worst of the road woes. It showed the world everything that is wrong with the "championship" Cubs team.
The Cubs blew a five run lead against the Phillies. Yu Darvish pitched one of his strongest outings of the year, but a few of us thought he was pulled early by Maddon. This indirectly led to using the bullpen which contributed to the collapse in the 9th.
The 7-5 loss on Bryce Harper's grand slam was the perfect example of what is wrong with the team.
For a long time, we have harped on the issue of playing players out of their natural position. David Bote was playing shortstop. His boot in the 9th opened the door to the huge comeback rally. Bote is not a shortstop. He is an average second baseman at best. But he sweet talked his way into a long term contract as one of Joe Maddon's "super subs."
Maddon is still living in the past (Rays days) when he had a unique asset, Ben Zobrist, who was the stellar utility man who racked up All-Star WAR numbers by playing multiple positions well. But he was in his prime and eager to show his skills. Bote is young but not skilled enough to play short.
Likewise, Ian Happ was a college second baseman. Since his return, he was been terrible at second because he spent all his time in Iowa trying to learn CF so he could platoon with Almora. But since the second base position was a sink hole disaster with Addison Russell, the Cubs traded for Kemp who has his own defensive deficiencies.
Maddon likes the "flexibility" of having players playing multiple positions so he can "rest" some players. But not playing in their natural positions costs the Cubs games. The Phils last night got at least two more outs which were used to complete their comeback rally.
In 2016, the Cubs played fantastic defense. They were number one in baseball. But defense has been spotty all year round. Anthony Rizzo has been a contortionist at first base trying to catch even routine throws.
The bullpen has been a sore point all season. The chronic injuries to Morrow, the implosion of Edwards, the inconsistency of Strop led to wholesale changes in the pen. But those changes were made on the cheap because Theo had already committed half of the payroll budget (approx. $103 million) to the rotation and Chatwood. Six pitchers took up half the budget. But the rotation rarely gave Maddon a six inning outing so the pen was taxed and gassed early on in the season.
Another issue with Maddon is that he has plus and minus relievers. Plus relievers are guys he trusts so he puts them in during tied games or leads. Minus relievers he uses when the Cubs are behind or losing badly. It is a matter of "match ups" he claims, but it is really a trust issue. But since the pen has been bad, he had been using the wrong pitcher in highly leveraged situations. Earlier in the week it was Strop. Last night it was Wick and Holland.
But a lot of the blame rests on the front office. The Cubs current roster construction is all on Theo and Jed. The bench is short and unproductive. The guys they brought in (Delcalso, Maldonando, Kemp, Russell) have been unable to produce consistent above replacement offensive stats. The parade of bad relievers continues to grow. The pitching problem clearly centers on the fact (screamed many times on this blog) that Theo has yet to draft and develop one starting pitcher in five years. Zero.
Instead, Theo's focus was drafting the "best" hitter in the first round to build a core of good young, "controllable" talent. He drafted and promoted quickly Bryant, Schwarber and Almora. But the two most valuable Cubs this season were Hendry draftees, Baez and Contreras.
The final straw may be the fact that Maddon did not get a contract extension after being the best manager the team has had in a century (from a win and loss stand point). The front office keeps saying its is not about wins or losses (which was the refrain during Renteria's era for another reason). But a manager is judged on his team's wins or losses. For good or ill, Maddon got the Cubs a championship. Today, the thought is that he is too old, or the players have stopped listening to him.
In reality, the owner and front office does not want to pay a manager $6 million per season. Theo and Jed would rather have a million dollar puppet in the dugout following their scripted analytic game plans than an old school manager. Is $5 million such a big deal for the Cubs? Apparently so, since the team was handcuffed all season by the Ricketts' decree of not spending more than the $206 million luxury tax cap.
Theo begat the budget woes on himself just as he did in Boston. He has a habit of making a lot of bad money deals. As noted above, six pitchers took up half the budget with underwhelming performances. If you add in the Heyward contract and Morrow's two year dead money absence, one can almost sympathize with the owner about a spendthrift general manager.
For a long time it was apparent that the Cubs, even though good "on paper," were not a championship caliber team. By comparison, the Astros, Dodgers and Yankees (with a record number of player injuries) are far superior in records and statistics. The Cubs are in a dog fight just to try to stay near the top in the NL Central. The lowly Reds have beaten up the Cubs.
But last night's loss was the worst of the road woes. It showed the world everything that is wrong with the "championship" Cubs team.
April 21, 2019
LAME DUCKS
Maddon said Morrow, who currently is on the 10-day injured list,
struggled in his recovery from throwing off the mound earlier this week.
"The bounceback after the last time out wasn't as good," Maddon said. "So, we've got to back off of him once again and just slow things down. That's just where he's at. It's not unlike what had been going on (last season). It was all trending very well and then, like I said, this last time, just not as good. So, we just have to pay attention to what he's saying."
Pat Hughes was marveling yesterday on the radio that the home crowd could reach 38,000.
Really? A 70 degree Saturday on a holiday weekend and only get 38,000 fans? It should have been
48,000 standing room only. But the game casts continue to hard sell single game, special event and
suite ticket packages like a desperate snake oil salesman. It is another sign that money is tight for the Cubs. Every unsold ticket is a lost asset.
It does go to show that Ricketts have clamped down on pennies and dimes for the baseball club.
Morrow cannot be counted on returning, and there is zero movement to find his replacement.
Kimbrel is still unemployed which is baffling for clubs in need of relief pitching.
But Theo has repeated his Boston downfall: overspending on players who underperform.
Morrow $21 million; Chatwood $33 million; Darvish $126 million = $180 million bust.
If you add the Hamels $20 million option to cover for the bad Darvish deal, that is an entire
season salary budget on four players.
As Maddon is the lame duck manager, I now wonder if cutting off the dollar taps by ownership
is a real signal that Theo & his Gang are also lame ducks (Theo only has 2 years to go on his contract).
Kenney continues to hype that the new Cubs channel will be like finding an untapped gold mine,
but he is as delusional as Theo was with his recent pitching acquisitions. The Dodger Network deal has been a disaster for broadcast partner Time-Warner. Regional sports networks are in flux due to the Disney-Fox merger. The Cubs trying to start their own network in an era of cord cutting cable viewers without a strong local partner is a recipe for disaster.
The Cubs struggled to get to .500, then Darvish gave up two back-to-back jacks in the first inning to set the tone for another bad day. He calmed down some, but was pulled again in the fifth inning when the offense failed to show up. Now, Chatwood takes the mound for a Lester DL start. The consensus is today's pitching is going to be bad as Chatwood became the lame duck when Hamels returned to help anchor the rotation.
The old saying is true: you cannot win the division early in the season, but you can certainly lose it. The NL Central continues to be highly competitive, with the Pirates surging past the Brewers into first place.
"The bounceback after the last time out wasn't as good," Maddon said. "So, we've got to back off of him once again and just slow things down. That's just where he's at. It's not unlike what had been going on (last season). It was all trending very well and then, like I said, this last time, just not as good. So, we just have to pay attention to what he's saying."
Pat Hughes was marveling yesterday on the radio that the home crowd could reach 38,000.
Really? A 70 degree Saturday on a holiday weekend and only get 38,000 fans? It should have been
48,000 standing room only. But the game casts continue to hard sell single game, special event and
suite ticket packages like a desperate snake oil salesman. It is another sign that money is tight for the Cubs. Every unsold ticket is a lost asset.
It does go to show that Ricketts have clamped down on pennies and dimes for the baseball club.
Morrow cannot be counted on returning, and there is zero movement to find his replacement.
Kimbrel is still unemployed which is baffling for clubs in need of relief pitching.
But Theo has repeated his Boston downfall: overspending on players who underperform.
Morrow $21 million; Chatwood $33 million; Darvish $126 million = $180 million bust.
If you add the Hamels $20 million option to cover for the bad Darvish deal, that is an entire
season salary budget on four players.
As Maddon is the lame duck manager, I now wonder if cutting off the dollar taps by ownership
is a real signal that Theo & his Gang are also lame ducks (Theo only has 2 years to go on his contract).
Kenney continues to hype that the new Cubs channel will be like finding an untapped gold mine,
but he is as delusional as Theo was with his recent pitching acquisitions. The Dodger Network deal has been a disaster for broadcast partner Time-Warner. Regional sports networks are in flux due to the Disney-Fox merger. The Cubs trying to start their own network in an era of cord cutting cable viewers without a strong local partner is a recipe for disaster.
The Cubs struggled to get to .500, then Darvish gave up two back-to-back jacks in the first inning to set the tone for another bad day. He calmed down some, but was pulled again in the fifth inning when the offense failed to show up. Now, Chatwood takes the mound for a Lester DL start. The consensus is today's pitching is going to be bad as Chatwood became the lame duck when Hamels returned to help anchor the rotation.
The old saying is true: you cannot win the division early in the season, but you can certainly lose it. The NL Central continues to be highly competitive, with the Pirates surging past the Brewers into first place.
February 24, 2019
THE SAME BUT DIFFERENT
Last season, Joe Maddon used 152 different line ups.
He used to text his players the night before the game what the line up would be.
This year, he says he will change this routine. He will now text line ups for the entire series. But this does not mean the Cubs are changing to a set, regular line up.
Yahoo Sports writes that that is not going to happen. Maddon doesn't want a stable lineup with 7-8 regulars playing every day. Theo Epstein doesn't want it. Jed Hoyer doesn't want it. The "Geek Squad" doesn't recommend it. And the roster doesn't allow for it. In theory.
He used to text his players the night before the game what the line up would be.
This year, he says he will change this routine. He will now text line ups for the entire series. But this does not mean the Cubs are changing to a set, regular line up.
Yahoo Sports writes that that is not going to happen. Maddon doesn't want a stable lineup with 7-8 regulars playing every day. Theo Epstein doesn't want it. Jed Hoyer doesn't want it. The "Geek Squad" doesn't recommend it. And the roster doesn't allow for it. In theory.
If the Cubs have a 3-game set beginning on a Monday night in boring ole
St. Louis, for example, Maddon or new bench coach Mark Loretta plan to text players on that Sunday night to let them know what
the projected lineups would be for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.
The
whole "set lineup" narrative got a lot of traction last year as an
ill-informed potential reason for why the Cubs lineup may have struggled
or why some young players took a step back. It picked up steam the day
after the Cubs were stunned in that National League Wild-Card game. Some players have quietly complained to management that they do not like the day to day uncertainty of the line up.
"Part
of it is developmental, part of it is match up. Some of it's trying to
put you in a situation to make you look better. It takes time for young
players to understand it. I think veterans get that a little bit better.
Even though a veteran might want to play more often, he understands his
role may be in this and it might be the best thing for him. It just
takes time," Maddon said.
Part of the problem is that Maddon likes a roster with players playing multiple positions. This gives him more flexibility to find better hitter match ups. But playing multiple players out of their natural position does hurt their defensive metrics. Last season the Cubs took a large set back in the team's overall defense.
Also, the Cubs still do not have a traditional lead off hitter who can get on base for the run producers in the second, third and clean up spots. Stat gurus now quibble with the notion of the old school lead off hitter being important in line up construction, but baserunners are still key in even a home run centric era.
Players are creatures of habit. If they know they are going to bat second every time they play in the field, it is one less thing to worry about. But Maddon has his players batting anywhere from lead off to 9th.
The Cubs do have fielders that deserve a regular, everyday spot in a set line up: Rizzo, Bryant, Contreras, Baez and possibly Zobrist (if Russell does not make the club). The rest of the line up can be in a regular platoon situation.
For example:
1. ______________
2. Bryant 3B
3. Rizzo 1B
4. Baez SS/2B
5. Contreras C
6. ______________
7. ______________
8. ______________
If Russell stays, he is a shortstop batting near #8, possibly sharing time with Bote.
Happ and Almora could platoon in CF.
Heyward, depending on his start, would be in RF platooning with Zobrist or even Bryant.
Schwarber has LF to lose, but he could platoon with Happ and Zobrist as well.
But you can set a "regular" portion of the line up (two through five) quite easily, but Maddon is stubborn in his ways.
7. ______________
8. ______________
If Russell stays, he is a shortstop batting near #8, possibly sharing time with Bote.
Happ and Almora could platoon in CF.
Heyward, depending on his start, would be in RF platooning with Zobrist or even Bryant.
Schwarber has LF to lose, but he could platoon with Happ and Zobrist as well.
But you can set a "regular" portion of the line up (two through five) quite easily, but Maddon is stubborn in his ways.
November 28, 2018
MADDON SPEAKS
At a charity event in Florida, the Tampa Bay Times caught up with Joe Maddon.
He had several things to say about his new approach in 2019, the status of Jim Hickey and not having a contract extension.
Maddon says he plans a significant change for next year in his managing style with a shift to more on field coaching work, which is apparently tied to baseball ops president Theo Epstein saying he expects Maddon to be "re-energized" by the challenges after last season's disappointing finish.
"That will be the part that will be different," Maddon said. "I've always kind of stayed free of coaching because I really want to stay out of coaches' way so they can do their job. I've always felt that is the right way to do it. But this year I'm going to get a little more hands-on involved in actually coaching. I think that's where the comment came from. …. I actually want to do less before the game talking to the media and whatever and try to get on the field more often."
Maddon said last week's departure of pitching coach Jim Hickey was not health related but said he couldn't get into specifics of what the "personal reasons" were. "He's fine," Maddon said. "He's not ill. His health is fine."
When asked about his lack of a contract extension, Maddon was nonplussed. He compared the situation as being a "free agent" not a "lame duck." He compares the situation to Manny Machado and Bryce Harper playing out their contract to get a new, better one. Players often do better in "contract years." Maddon is not worried about his future.
The three takeaways from the interview:
1. Maddon left too much coaching decisions to his staff in 2018. There will be no excuses for the 2019 results. He is going to take a more active approach in all phases of the players approach and execution. Whether he can get back to developmental basics with his players is going to be interesting.
2. Maddon was not phased by Hickey's departure or bitter by it. Perhaps there was something non-baseball related in the move. Maddon will now have new hitting and pitching coaches for the third year in a row. But he did not deflect it as a criticism of the organization or management.
3. He still wants to manage. He wants to succeed with the Cubs. He is preparing his 2019 campaign like a superstar free agent in his contract year. He is managing for a new contract, with the Cubs or some other organization.
He had several things to say about his new approach in 2019, the status of Jim Hickey and not having a contract extension.
Maddon says he plans a significant change for next year in his managing style with a shift to more on field coaching work, which is apparently tied to baseball ops president Theo Epstein saying he expects Maddon to be "re-energized" by the challenges after last season's disappointing finish.
"That will be the part that will be different," Maddon said. "I've always kind of stayed free of coaching because I really want to stay out of coaches' way so they can do their job. I've always felt that is the right way to do it. But this year I'm going to get a little more hands-on involved in actually coaching. I think that's where the comment came from. …. I actually want to do less before the game talking to the media and whatever and try to get on the field more often."
Maddon said last week's departure of pitching coach Jim Hickey was not health related but said he couldn't get into specifics of what the "personal reasons" were. "He's fine," Maddon said. "He's not ill. His health is fine."
When asked about his lack of a contract extension, Maddon was nonplussed. He compared the situation as being a "free agent" not a "lame duck." He compares the situation to Manny Machado and Bryce Harper playing out their contract to get a new, better one. Players often do better in "contract years." Maddon is not worried about his future.
The three takeaways from the interview:
1. Maddon left too much coaching decisions to his staff in 2018. There will be no excuses for the 2019 results. He is going to take a more active approach in all phases of the players approach and execution. Whether he can get back to developmental basics with his players is going to be interesting.
2. Maddon was not phased by Hickey's departure or bitter by it. Perhaps there was something non-baseball related in the move. Maddon will now have new hitting and pitching coaches for the third year in a row. But he did not deflect it as a criticism of the organization or management.
3. He still wants to manage. He wants to succeed with the Cubs. He is preparing his 2019 campaign like a superstar free agent in his contract year. He is managing for a new contract, with the Cubs or some other organization.
November 21, 2018
THE ISLAND OF JOE
After weeks of speculation, pitching coach Jim Hickey resigned for "personal reasons."
Most people do not buy it. Hickey was a friend and colleague of Joe Maddon from his Tampa days. The Cubs won 95 games. The Cubs made the playoffs.
But the front office is bitter by the Wild Card bounce. Now, for the third straight season, the Cubs will have a new hitting and pitching coach. So much for stability. And Maddon is not getting a contract extension, so he will be a lame duck manager.
What did Hickey mess up in order to be bought out to resign his position? The front office spend money on starters Tyler Chatwood, Yu Darvish, reliever Steve Cishek and closer Brandon Morrow. Only Cishek had a good season (80 relief appearances, 2.18 ERA). Chatwood was an uncontrollable disaster, Darvish was hurt and Morrow's injury history took him out for the second half of the season.
Despite the free agent flubs, the Cubs pitching staff year end NL stats were as follows:
2nd in Wins (95)
2nd in ERA (3.65)
4th in Saves
1st in IP
5th in Hits Allowed
4th in HR Allowed
14th in Walks
12th in Strikeouts
The last two bottom of the league states (BB/K) shows that the pitching staff had control issues, but despite those issues won 95 games and was second in team ERA.
Just as hitting coach Chili Davis was brought in last season to improve contact rate, OBP and opposite field hitting, he was fired apparently because his message did not "mesh" with the younger players. Epstein was highly critical that the Cubs offense collapsed in the second half of the season.
The Cubs hitting ranks were:
4th in Runs Scored
11th in HRs
13th in SB
4th in Walks
7th in Strikeouts
1st in Batting Average
2nd in On-Base Percentage (OBP)
6th in Slugging
6th in Total Bases
In today's stat era, having a hitting coach on a team that ranks first in BA and second in OBP would be praised as being successful. The two under performing categories were HRs and SBs, but stat gurus now discount the stolen base as obsolete in the modern game. Despite being middle of the pack in walks, slugging and total bases, the Cubs still won 95 games.
The team stats show that in one respect the Cubs overachieved to win 95 games. Some writers think 2018 was Maddon's best managerial season as he juggled injuries and player slumps in both hitting and fielding. But Maddon critics still think he is failing to develop the young core into superstar talent.
There is mounting circumstantial evidence that there is a rift between ownership, baseball operations and the team (coaches and players). The idea that the Cubs had to dump salary to exercise the option on Cole Hamels set off "small market" alarm bells that the Cubs were not going to spend over the $206 million luxury tax cap. The team is projected to bump up near that cap amount after arbitration awards to their existing players. In Boston, Epstein buried his bad signings and dead money deals by going out and overpaying for big name free agents. That escape plan is not going to happen for 2019. His roster is trapped by bad contracts and under performing young players. If he is going to re-work the roster, it will have to be through trades but the Cubs minor league system has no great major league ready prospects to pull off a mega-deal.
The tension between Epstein and Maddon is clear. Epstein said that Maddon should have not thrown Morrow three days in a row (which allegedly caused the season ending arm injury). But Morrow's injury did not stop the Cubs from winning 95 games as Pedro Strop came in to spot close (until he got hurt running the bases in a move universally critical of Maddon's managing move). It is clear that the front office is hiring the next coaching staff, not Maddon. They have isolated Maddon from gathering his own coaching staff and loyalty. Whether that is a move to force Maddon's hand to resign we do not know. But Maddon's personality is not the type to walk away from a fight, even within the organization. The Cubs cannot outright fire Maddon because he is the figurehead who brought desperate Cubs fans a multi-generational World Series championship.
The firings of Davis and Hickey were sacrifices to ownership for not fully monetizing the season. Someone had to take the brunt of the blame for not going deep in the playoffs (and thus having a large revenue shortfall). It is highly unlikely that a new hitting coach is going to turn .240 career hitters into .300 hitters or a new pitching coach is going to turn Darvish into Cy Young or Chatwood into a All-Star starter.
How Maddon will react to this back office soap opera will be telling; he can either go through the moments in 2019 or try to re-ignite the loose, highly spirited championship locker room. Some believe that Maddon's goofy events worked well with rookies and young players because it made them not "think" about hitting or batting. But as the years went on, Maddon's carefree stunts lost its message and the players seemed to tighten up. It is not that Maddon has lost players confidence, but he lost his edge as a player-friendly manager. At times, coddled players need some tough love (and much of that is messaged through the manager's assistant coaches). If Hickey and Davis' departures are because the players did not get along with them, then this is the beginning of the end as teams that have the players run the asylum are doomed (like late in Dusty Baker's Cub tenure.) We know Epstein wants to be close to "his guys" in the locker room and conversations with players had impact on the Davis dismissal.
If the front office wants a remote control manager who will run the pre-programmed line up and field calls driven by stat percentages, then Maddon is not that type of employee. He still has enough old school baseball instincts that defy new conventions. Change is coming to the Cubs dugout sooner than we as fans expected before the start of the 2018 season.
Most people do not buy it. Hickey was a friend and colleague of Joe Maddon from his Tampa days. The Cubs won 95 games. The Cubs made the playoffs.
But the front office is bitter by the Wild Card bounce. Now, for the third straight season, the Cubs will have a new hitting and pitching coach. So much for stability. And Maddon is not getting a contract extension, so he will be a lame duck manager.
What did Hickey mess up in order to be bought out to resign his position? The front office spend money on starters Tyler Chatwood, Yu Darvish, reliever Steve Cishek and closer Brandon Morrow. Only Cishek had a good season (80 relief appearances, 2.18 ERA). Chatwood was an uncontrollable disaster, Darvish was hurt and Morrow's injury history took him out for the second half of the season.
Despite the free agent flubs, the Cubs pitching staff year end NL stats were as follows:
2nd in Wins (95)
2nd in ERA (3.65)
4th in Saves
1st in IP
5th in Hits Allowed
4th in HR Allowed
14th in Walks
12th in Strikeouts
The last two bottom of the league states (BB/K) shows that the pitching staff had control issues, but despite those issues won 95 games and was second in team ERA.
Just as hitting coach Chili Davis was brought in last season to improve contact rate, OBP and opposite field hitting, he was fired apparently because his message did not "mesh" with the younger players. Epstein was highly critical that the Cubs offense collapsed in the second half of the season.
The Cubs hitting ranks were:
4th in Runs Scored
11th in HRs
13th in SB
4th in Walks
7th in Strikeouts
1st in Batting Average
2nd in On-Base Percentage (OBP)
6th in Slugging
6th in Total Bases
In today's stat era, having a hitting coach on a team that ranks first in BA and second in OBP would be praised as being successful. The two under performing categories were HRs and SBs, but stat gurus now discount the stolen base as obsolete in the modern game. Despite being middle of the pack in walks, slugging and total bases, the Cubs still won 95 games.
The team stats show that in one respect the Cubs overachieved to win 95 games. Some writers think 2018 was Maddon's best managerial season as he juggled injuries and player slumps in both hitting and fielding. But Maddon critics still think he is failing to develop the young core into superstar talent.
There is mounting circumstantial evidence that there is a rift between ownership, baseball operations and the team (coaches and players). The idea that the Cubs had to dump salary to exercise the option on Cole Hamels set off "small market" alarm bells that the Cubs were not going to spend over the $206 million luxury tax cap. The team is projected to bump up near that cap amount after arbitration awards to their existing players. In Boston, Epstein buried his bad signings and dead money deals by going out and overpaying for big name free agents. That escape plan is not going to happen for 2019. His roster is trapped by bad contracts and under performing young players. If he is going to re-work the roster, it will have to be through trades but the Cubs minor league system has no great major league ready prospects to pull off a mega-deal.
The tension between Epstein and Maddon is clear. Epstein said that Maddon should have not thrown Morrow three days in a row (which allegedly caused the season ending arm injury). But Morrow's injury did not stop the Cubs from winning 95 games as Pedro Strop came in to spot close (until he got hurt running the bases in a move universally critical of Maddon's managing move). It is clear that the front office is hiring the next coaching staff, not Maddon. They have isolated Maddon from gathering his own coaching staff and loyalty. Whether that is a move to force Maddon's hand to resign we do not know. But Maddon's personality is not the type to walk away from a fight, even within the organization. The Cubs cannot outright fire Maddon because he is the figurehead who brought desperate Cubs fans a multi-generational World Series championship.
The firings of Davis and Hickey were sacrifices to ownership for not fully monetizing the season. Someone had to take the brunt of the blame for not going deep in the playoffs (and thus having a large revenue shortfall). It is highly unlikely that a new hitting coach is going to turn .240 career hitters into .300 hitters or a new pitching coach is going to turn Darvish into Cy Young or Chatwood into a All-Star starter.
How Maddon will react to this back office soap opera will be telling; he can either go through the moments in 2019 or try to re-ignite the loose, highly spirited championship locker room. Some believe that Maddon's goofy events worked well with rookies and young players because it made them not "think" about hitting or batting. But as the years went on, Maddon's carefree stunts lost its message and the players seemed to tighten up. It is not that Maddon has lost players confidence, but he lost his edge as a player-friendly manager. At times, coddled players need some tough love (and much of that is messaged through the manager's assistant coaches). If Hickey and Davis' departures are because the players did not get along with them, then this is the beginning of the end as teams that have the players run the asylum are doomed (like late in Dusty Baker's Cub tenure.) We know Epstein wants to be close to "his guys" in the locker room and conversations with players had impact on the Davis dismissal.
If the front office wants a remote control manager who will run the pre-programmed line up and field calls driven by stat percentages, then Maddon is not that type of employee. He still has enough old school baseball instincts that defy new conventions. Change is coming to the Cubs dugout sooner than we as fans expected before the start of the 2018 season.
November 3, 2018
THE CALL FOR A SET LINE UP
The off-season begins in earnest with option calls and exclusive negotiation periods for free agents.
Roster rebuilds are the bread and butter of winter work for teams.
The Cubs have built a roster of utility players, i.e. players who can play multiple positions, In the past, utility players were bench substitutes, pinch hitters and Sunday starters. But with the new religion of advanced stats and match-ups, lefty righty, situational OBP, shift and base running at end of games becomes more important than having regular starters and bench players.
Joe Maddon loves multi-use guys. He likes to mix and match lineups to opposing starting pitchers. ESPN Chicago notes that in 2018, Joe Maddon wrote out 152 different lineups in 163 games (and that's not even factoring in the pitcher's spot). That's a bump up from 2017 (143 different lineups) and 2016 (130 lineups in the regular season of the championship year).
How does that relate to the top contenders around the league?
The last four World Series teams (2017 Astros, 2018 Red Sox and the 2017-18 Dodgers) averaged 145 different lineups per regular season. All 2018 MLB playoff teams (excluding Cubs) averaged 129.1 separate lineups throughout the regular season. The Dodgers tallied 155 different lineups in 2018 and 147 in 2017 and they made it to the World Series both seasons. The Astros posted 144 new lineups each of the last two regular seasons while the Red Sox were at 134 lineups and the Brewers and Yankees sat at 137 lineups in 2018.
It seems that all teams are mixing and matching lineups. Front offices are living in a world of extreme platooning, bullpening and shifting which equates to a lot of different lineups.
If the rest of the league has adopted this philosophy, why would the Cubs be any different?
In his post season press conference, Theo Epstein indicated that some players told him they would like less daily lineup shakeups. A regular lineup is what they felt would be good for them.
If the Cubs do not make major personnel moves this off-season (due to budgetary and luxury tax restraints), then the only major change would be how the players on the roster will be used in 2019. A regular, set lineup may be that major move.
In the past, starters earned "their job" and kept their position on the field until injury or demotion. Players in the minors worked hard to "earn" a position on a 25 man roster. It is that competition and fear of losing one's spot that keeps a player focused on playing hard and performing well. But when you have a dozen position players vying for 8 daily spots with a manager who likes to mix and match, you know you will play most of the time (but not necessarily a complete game at a time.)
Professional athletes are creatures of habit. They have set pregame routines (almost superstitions). They want to know their role so they can adjust their play to match the manager/team's expectations. There are two components of knowing your position: the place you play in the field and the number spot in the batting order. Most baseball players are more concerned about the latter - - - because where you hit in the order can affect your mental approach in an at-bat.
For example, a lead off hitter has to have the mentality of getting on base so the heart of the order can drive him home. A free swinging lead off hitter cannot "set the table." When the Cubs had Alfonso Soriano hitting lead off, it was not because it make sense but because Soriano demanded the spot because he felt he would see more fastballs he could hit.
Maddon only used the same lineup a total of 5 times in 2018.
Some believe the causes of this non-regular line up were:
1. Bryant's shoulder injury became an issue and he was out for an extended period of time.
2. Russell's nagging injuries affected his hitting and fielding in such a manner that he needed more rest.
3. Heyward's defense in RF was more important than his hitting (which then improved under Chili Davis securing more playing time.)
4. Contreras' slumping season at the plate caused him to slowly drop down the order.
5. Maddon likes to play favorites with his veterans like Zobrist, giving him more playing time than with Happ or Almora.
6. And the front office pushing Schwarber as a pure hitter so he had to play LF to get at-bats.
7. Maddon's odd approach of putting struggling hitters (including Rizzo) in the lead off spot. (The Soriano philosophy).
Granted, the Cubs won 95 games with this carousel approach. But in the second half of the season, hitting became a real problem and some players may believe it was because of the daily changes in the lineup.
The platoon situation works if you have multiple players who can evenly perform at a high situational level (righty-lefty matchups). But if your roster is filled with .240 hitting utility players, then it really does not matter which ones start a game. The Cubs multiple position player depth is not the same as having a deep bench where the bench player is as good as a starter who earns that position. The bench or role players on the club are now pretty obvious: Schwarber, Almora, Happ, Zobrist, Russell, LaStella, Heyward, Bote. You could start a game with these 8 players, but why would you?
Which players have "earned" a regular starting position? Those players who do not have enough fatal flaws to become a platoon player:
Rizzo at 1B. Bryant at 3B. Baez at 2B/SS.
If a team objectively self-scouts, you can see the need to upgrade all of the other positions with a full time player. That may be why fans are anxious to see if the Cubs will legitimately go after Bryce Harper and/or Manny Machado. Those players would be penciled in to start 154 games.
Even if the front office is handcuffed into keeping its existing roster, spring training would be an open battle field to determine who will be the starting 8. If Bote can hit enough, that would move Bryant to the outfield. If Russell can regain his ability to hit the ball with power and RBI numbers, Baez can be set at second. Do you trust Almora to be your regular center fielder? Will Heyward be content being only a late inning defensive substitute? This is the perplexing problem the Cubs must address this off-season as Epstein was not happy with the direction of the club as it finished 2018.
Fans are like the players when it comes to a set lineup. They pay to see the best players on their team. If there is a set lineup, they are almost guaranteed to see their favorite player play.
Roster rebuilds are the bread and butter of winter work for teams.
The Cubs have built a roster of utility players, i.e. players who can play multiple positions, In the past, utility players were bench substitutes, pinch hitters and Sunday starters. But with the new religion of advanced stats and match-ups, lefty righty, situational OBP, shift and base running at end of games becomes more important than having regular starters and bench players.
Joe Maddon loves multi-use guys. He likes to mix and match lineups to opposing starting pitchers. ESPN Chicago notes that in 2018, Joe Maddon wrote out 152 different lineups in 163 games (and that's not even factoring in the pitcher's spot). That's a bump up from 2017 (143 different lineups) and 2016 (130 lineups in the regular season of the championship year).
How does that relate to the top contenders around the league?
The last four World Series teams (2017 Astros, 2018 Red Sox and the 2017-18 Dodgers) averaged 145 different lineups per regular season. All 2018 MLB playoff teams (excluding Cubs) averaged 129.1 separate lineups throughout the regular season. The Dodgers tallied 155 different lineups in 2018 and 147 in 2017 and they made it to the World Series both seasons. The Astros posted 144 new lineups each of the last two regular seasons while the Red Sox were at 134 lineups and the Brewers and Yankees sat at 137 lineups in 2018.
It seems that all teams are mixing and matching lineups. Front offices are living in a world of extreme platooning, bullpening and shifting which equates to a lot of different lineups.
If the rest of the league has adopted this philosophy, why would the Cubs be any different?
In his post season press conference, Theo Epstein indicated that some players told him they would like less daily lineup shakeups. A regular lineup is what they felt would be good for them.
If the Cubs do not make major personnel moves this off-season (due to budgetary and luxury tax restraints), then the only major change would be how the players on the roster will be used in 2019. A regular, set lineup may be that major move.
In the past, starters earned "their job" and kept their position on the field until injury or demotion. Players in the minors worked hard to "earn" a position on a 25 man roster. It is that competition and fear of losing one's spot that keeps a player focused on playing hard and performing well. But when you have a dozen position players vying for 8 daily spots with a manager who likes to mix and match, you know you will play most of the time (but not necessarily a complete game at a time.)
Professional athletes are creatures of habit. They have set pregame routines (almost superstitions). They want to know their role so they can adjust their play to match the manager/team's expectations. There are two components of knowing your position: the place you play in the field and the number spot in the batting order. Most baseball players are more concerned about the latter - - - because where you hit in the order can affect your mental approach in an at-bat.
For example, a lead off hitter has to have the mentality of getting on base so the heart of the order can drive him home. A free swinging lead off hitter cannot "set the table." When the Cubs had Alfonso Soriano hitting lead off, it was not because it make sense but because Soriano demanded the spot because he felt he would see more fastballs he could hit.
Maddon only used the same lineup a total of 5 times in 2018.
Some believe the causes of this non-regular line up were:
1. Bryant's shoulder injury became an issue and he was out for an extended period of time.
2. Russell's nagging injuries affected his hitting and fielding in such a manner that he needed more rest.
3. Heyward's defense in RF was more important than his hitting (which then improved under Chili Davis securing more playing time.)
4. Contreras' slumping season at the plate caused him to slowly drop down the order.
5. Maddon likes to play favorites with his veterans like Zobrist, giving him more playing time than with Happ or Almora.
6. And the front office pushing Schwarber as a pure hitter so he had to play LF to get at-bats.
7. Maddon's odd approach of putting struggling hitters (including Rizzo) in the lead off spot. (The Soriano philosophy).
Granted, the Cubs won 95 games with this carousel approach. But in the second half of the season, hitting became a real problem and some players may believe it was because of the daily changes in the lineup.
The platoon situation works if you have multiple players who can evenly perform at a high situational level (righty-lefty matchups). But if your roster is filled with .240 hitting utility players, then it really does not matter which ones start a game. The Cubs multiple position player depth is not the same as having a deep bench where the bench player is as good as a starter who earns that position. The bench or role players on the club are now pretty obvious: Schwarber, Almora, Happ, Zobrist, Russell, LaStella, Heyward, Bote. You could start a game with these 8 players, but why would you?
Which players have "earned" a regular starting position? Those players who do not have enough fatal flaws to become a platoon player:
Rizzo at 1B. Bryant at 3B. Baez at 2B/SS.
If a team objectively self-scouts, you can see the need to upgrade all of the other positions with a full time player. That may be why fans are anxious to see if the Cubs will legitimately go after Bryce Harper and/or Manny Machado. Those players would be penciled in to start 154 games.
Even if the front office is handcuffed into keeping its existing roster, spring training would be an open battle field to determine who will be the starting 8. If Bote can hit enough, that would move Bryant to the outfield. If Russell can regain his ability to hit the ball with power and RBI numbers, Baez can be set at second. Do you trust Almora to be your regular center fielder? Will Heyward be content being only a late inning defensive substitute? This is the perplexing problem the Cubs must address this off-season as Epstein was not happy with the direction of the club as it finished 2018.
Fans are like the players when it comes to a set lineup. They pay to see the best players on their team. If there is a set lineup, they are almost guaranteed to see their favorite player play.
October 12, 2018
SOME KEY STATS
A major league team filled with a roster of "replacement level players" would be expected only to win 48 games. In reviewing the Cubs 2018 season, let us look at a few key statistics.
The Cubs won 95 games. That is 47 games above replacement level.
The Cubs combined hitters had a 24.0 WAR.
The Cubs pitching staff had a 21.1 WAR.
Combined, the roster had a 45.1 WAR.
In the end, the Cubs wins was 1.9 above their collective WAR. So the Cubs won two more games than reasonably expected during the season. Is this the quantitative measure of Maddon's managerial skill?
If you look at the Cubs win total to actual WAR, the 1.9 WAR difference is 4.2 percent. That would equate to a projected seasonal impact in approximately 7 games (6.82).
The Cubs were 11th in the NL with 104 errors made. That means the Cubs gave their opponents 104 more outs, or the equivalent of 3.85 games. For a tired pitching staff, adding another 4 games to 163 regular season contests is a burden. They had to perform 2.4 percent more than the norm.
Errors create base runners which leads to more "highly leveraged" pitching situations. For starters, that means changing one's mechanic's to the stretch position. For relievers, it puts more pressure to get strikes with your best pitch. For relievers, the errors could have added an average hidden 4 1/3 IP to their work load, or 4 more appearances during the season. Cishek had 80 appearances for 70.1 IP. Wilson had 60 appearances for 52.1 IP.
The Cubs season could be summed up as being conflicted; there was inconsistent offense and tired pitching but it lead to a slight overachievement in the end.
The Cubs won 95 games. That is 47 games above replacement level.
The Cubs combined hitters had a 24.0 WAR.
The Cubs pitching staff had a 21.1 WAR.
Combined, the roster had a 45.1 WAR.
In the end, the Cubs wins was 1.9 above their collective WAR. So the Cubs won two more games than reasonably expected during the season. Is this the quantitative measure of Maddon's managerial skill?
If you look at the Cubs win total to actual WAR, the 1.9 WAR difference is 4.2 percent. That would equate to a projected seasonal impact in approximately 7 games (6.82).
The Cubs were 11th in the NL with 104 errors made. That means the Cubs gave their opponents 104 more outs, or the equivalent of 3.85 games. For a tired pitching staff, adding another 4 games to 163 regular season contests is a burden. They had to perform 2.4 percent more than the norm.
Errors create base runners which leads to more "highly leveraged" pitching situations. For starters, that means changing one's mechanic's to the stretch position. For relievers, it puts more pressure to get strikes with your best pitch. For relievers, the errors could have added an average hidden 4 1/3 IP to their work load, or 4 more appearances during the season. Cishek had 80 appearances for 70.1 IP. Wilson had 60 appearances for 52.1 IP.
The Cubs season could be summed up as being conflicted; there was inconsistent offense and tired pitching but it lead to a slight overachievement in the end.
October 18, 2017
A WHIMPER, A WHINE
Joe Maddon said the Cubs have four Game 7s in a row.
Such the optimist.
He also said there was nothing he could say to motivate his team in this time of crisis.
We thought he was the great motivator when the Cubs hired him.
Gordon Wittenmeyer of the Sun-Times got Bryant and Rizzo to admit that they are physically tired in this Dodgers series.
The whole team looks lethargic. The mental fielding errors show a glaring problem. The lack of plate discipline is the reason for weak offensive production. The whole team seems to be dragging their heels from game to game.
But how can the team be collectively "tired?"
Yes, the Nationals series was a roller coaster ride. But the Cubs have only played 8 games since the season ended in early October. And the Cubs had 7 days off during that time period. And Maddon rested his regulars prior to the end of the regular season.
Part of it could be mental, part physical.
And the way Maddon managed the Nationals series had a direct, negative impact on the NLCS. He has a habit of doing things drastically different in the post-season than in the regular season, especially with his pitching staff. Starters as relievers, relievers pitching more innings than normal, and the quick hook on starters.
Perhaps the hitters are feeling the pressure of a weak bullpen. Perhaps the starters feel pressure of having to be perfect since the offense is not scoring runs. Perhaps the bullpen is imploding because of the pressure of bad defense plays leading to stressful relief appearances.
The Cubs are backed into a corner. A cornered, battered dog should attack. But in the case of the Cubs, they may just go out with a whimper.
If we look back at the preseason expectations, the Cubs were destined to get to the World Series and probably repeat. The young core had just learned how to win championships.
But apparently, the continuing excuse has been the young core has not learned how to celebrate championships. The championship "hang over" lasted to the All-Star break (and some whisper it is still present). If the Cub players and staff thought the Cubs were so good that they could "turn it on" at any point in the season or a series, we know now that is not true. It has never been true. Preparation, research, training, repetition and baseball intelligence of a pro player is a daily exercise.
The teams remaining in the playoffs have one thing in common: a lights out bullpen. The Yankees have former closer Robertson coming in at any inning like a firefighter containing a potential out-of-control blaze. The Dodgers use Morrow in a way to take down the other team's best hitters. A bullpen that can take the ball in the 6th and shut out an opponent is the key to victory - - - it gives the offense 12 outs to mount a comeback or hold the lead.
The 2017 Cubs did rest on their 2016 laurels. Schwarber is no longer Mr. October. Arrieta is no longer Cy Young, Jr. Hendricks looks like Older Greg Maddux. Baez looks like a lost rookie at the plate. The general expectations for 2017 were diminished by the WS win. But it is how the Cubs are losing is disappointing to many fans.
Some people are comparing the Cubs to the Blackhawks. The current Hawks won their first Stanley Cup with a young core surrounded by veterans. But they could not repeat. The team had to re-tool for the second championship and then again for the third. They had to re-learn the hunger to get the title. Hopefully, this can be the Cubs projected cycle: re-tool to win another championship before the window closes (i.e., Bryant and/or Rizzo's free agency).
Such the optimist.
He also said there was nothing he could say to motivate his team in this time of crisis.
We thought he was the great motivator when the Cubs hired him.
Gordon Wittenmeyer of the Sun-Times got Bryant and Rizzo to admit that they are physically tired in this Dodgers series.
The whole team looks lethargic. The mental fielding errors show a glaring problem. The lack of plate discipline is the reason for weak offensive production. The whole team seems to be dragging their heels from game to game.
But how can the team be collectively "tired?"
Yes, the Nationals series was a roller coaster ride. But the Cubs have only played 8 games since the season ended in early October. And the Cubs had 7 days off during that time period. And Maddon rested his regulars prior to the end of the regular season.
Part of it could be mental, part physical.
And the way Maddon managed the Nationals series had a direct, negative impact on the NLCS. He has a habit of doing things drastically different in the post-season than in the regular season, especially with his pitching staff. Starters as relievers, relievers pitching more innings than normal, and the quick hook on starters.
Perhaps the hitters are feeling the pressure of a weak bullpen. Perhaps the starters feel pressure of having to be perfect since the offense is not scoring runs. Perhaps the bullpen is imploding because of the pressure of bad defense plays leading to stressful relief appearances.
The Cubs are backed into a corner. A cornered, battered dog should attack. But in the case of the Cubs, they may just go out with a whimper.
If we look back at the preseason expectations, the Cubs were destined to get to the World Series and probably repeat. The young core had just learned how to win championships.
But apparently, the continuing excuse has been the young core has not learned how to celebrate championships. The championship "hang over" lasted to the All-Star break (and some whisper it is still present). If the Cub players and staff thought the Cubs were so good that they could "turn it on" at any point in the season or a series, we know now that is not true. It has never been true. Preparation, research, training, repetition and baseball intelligence of a pro player is a daily exercise.
The teams remaining in the playoffs have one thing in common: a lights out bullpen. The Yankees have former closer Robertson coming in at any inning like a firefighter containing a potential out-of-control blaze. The Dodgers use Morrow in a way to take down the other team's best hitters. A bullpen that can take the ball in the 6th and shut out an opponent is the key to victory - - - it gives the offense 12 outs to mount a comeback or hold the lead.
The 2017 Cubs did rest on their 2016 laurels. Schwarber is no longer Mr. October. Arrieta is no longer Cy Young, Jr. Hendricks looks like Older Greg Maddux. Baez looks like a lost rookie at the plate. The general expectations for 2017 were diminished by the WS win. But it is how the Cubs are losing is disappointing to many fans.
Some people are comparing the Cubs to the Blackhawks. The current Hawks won their first Stanley Cup with a young core surrounded by veterans. But they could not repeat. The team had to re-tool for the second championship and then again for the third. They had to re-learn the hunger to get the title. Hopefully, this can be the Cubs projected cycle: re-tool to win another championship before the window closes (i.e., Bryant and/or Rizzo's free agency).
October 17, 2017
MADDENING SERIES
As the NLCS returns to Wrigley Field with the tenor of "must win" games, the focus is still on Joe Maddon strange managerial moves. From the time he mule whipped Wade Davis to pitch in three innings in the NLDS finals to putting in a cold John Lackey to hold NLCS Game 2 in the 9th, Maddon has been soundly criticized for his actions.
When the Cubs charter plane had to make an emergency landing because of a player's family member's medical issue, it could have been seen as a bad omen. The players had to sit on the plane for 5 hours because regulations required a crew change. It was a stressful cross country trek to get to LA for Game 1.
The debate for the Game 1 starter was between Quintana, who just pitched in relief, and Lackey who was on the roster as an observer in the NLDS. Considering the weakness and overwork of the bullpen, many people thought Lackey should start Game 1 for the following reasons: 1) he was fresh; 2) Dodgers stadium is a big ball park, a pitcher's park; 3) he has post-season experience; and 4) if he is on the roster, use him. You could get 7 innings out of him and Montgomery to save the bullpen for the series.
But Maddon chose Quintana to start. But it was reported just before the game started that the player's family member stricken on the charter flight was Quintana's wife. They stayed in New Mexico on Friday. And that she was still recovering in LA on Saturday. Why would you summon a player to the mound when there are still serious personal issues on his mind?
In order to set up the rotation on proper rest, Maddon should have had Lackey pitch Game 1 followed by Quintana, Lester, Arrieta and Hendricks.
Quintana pitched 5 innings, keeping the game close. It was the bullpen that let the Dodgers secure the lead. Hector Rondon replaced Justin Wilson on the roster (which was a good move considering Maddon did not trust Wilson in any key situation). Rondon gave up a home run - - - it was a good pitch that was taken deep.
To compound the rotation issue, Maddon called on Lester to pitch Game 2 on short rest. Lester struggled through 4 2/3 innings. Edwards and Strop came in to pitch well. But in the 9th inning, Maddon had Lackey come in to stop a Dodger rally. It was a disaster. Lackey clearly was not ready to come into the game as he wandered around the mound in a five minute time span to pitch to two batters. Normally, a starting pitcher takes at least a half hour to warm up. An older pitcher may take longer to get loose. In Game 2, Lackey was called in the 9th to relieve. It appeared he was not physically or mentally prepared to shut down the Dodgers. He gave up the walk off HR to Turner.
Maddon explained that he did not go to closer Davis in the bottom of the 9th in a tie game because he wanted to save him "for a save situation." He said Davis would only be able to throw an inning so he did not want to use him in a non-save situation. But Maddon's comments shows the flaws in his own logic. The only reason Davis could only throw an inning in Game 2 is that he had been burned out in Game 5 of the NLDS. Maddon was looking ahead for the Cubs to score in the 10th inning to set up a save opportunity. But the Cubs offense was dormant - - - there was no guarantee that the Cubs would bat again. There is a general philosophy in baseball that a visiting team uses its closer in the 9th inning of a tied game because it is a sudden death situation. Maddon did the opposite.
Maddon continues to defy his seasonal decisions. He keeps on putting players in situations which they have never done before in their career, let alone in the regular season. A prime example of this was putting Lackey in Game 2. Lackey had never pitched in back to back games in his entire career. Lackey is not a relief pitcher, let alone taking on a closer's role.
Maddon cornered himself with his post-season pitching decisions because he only had Montgomery and Davis available in the pen for the end of Game 2. Montgomery has experience closing out playoff games (Game 7 of the 2016 WS) but he may have been physically drained to be put into a high pressure 9th. Maddon may have also thought he needed a "long" reliever in extra innings.
On the opposite dugout, Dodgers manager Roberts told reporters that he does not hesitate to take out a starter early in a game. He places his relievers to face certain batters. For example, he said he would make sure that Morrow would face Bryant, Rizzo and Contreras (the 2-3-4 hitters) and not use him for the bottom of the order. By assigning his relievers to where he wants them to pitch before the game starts allows Roberts not to second guess himself.
While the focal point of Maddon's decisions has been pitching, the Cubs hitters are in a terrible slump. They are not taking walks. They are fishing for breaking balls in the dirt. They are deer in the headlights of change ups. But Maddon kept putting in players who are struggling at the plate. He has done two double switches which had Almora, his most consistent batter, taken out of the game. He has also forgotten about playing Happ at any position. And the post-season magic of Schwarber appears to be at its end.
It will take a Cubs home sweep to give the team a remote chance to make it to the World Series. Maddon's moves to date have not helped his team win games.
When the Cubs charter plane had to make an emergency landing because of a player's family member's medical issue, it could have been seen as a bad omen. The players had to sit on the plane for 5 hours because regulations required a crew change. It was a stressful cross country trek to get to LA for Game 1.
The debate for the Game 1 starter was between Quintana, who just pitched in relief, and Lackey who was on the roster as an observer in the NLDS. Considering the weakness and overwork of the bullpen, many people thought Lackey should start Game 1 for the following reasons: 1) he was fresh; 2) Dodgers stadium is a big ball park, a pitcher's park; 3) he has post-season experience; and 4) if he is on the roster, use him. You could get 7 innings out of him and Montgomery to save the bullpen for the series.
But Maddon chose Quintana to start. But it was reported just before the game started that the player's family member stricken on the charter flight was Quintana's wife. They stayed in New Mexico on Friday. And that she was still recovering in LA on Saturday. Why would you summon a player to the mound when there are still serious personal issues on his mind?
In order to set up the rotation on proper rest, Maddon should have had Lackey pitch Game 1 followed by Quintana, Lester, Arrieta and Hendricks.
Quintana pitched 5 innings, keeping the game close. It was the bullpen that let the Dodgers secure the lead. Hector Rondon replaced Justin Wilson on the roster (which was a good move considering Maddon did not trust Wilson in any key situation). Rondon gave up a home run - - - it was a good pitch that was taken deep.
To compound the rotation issue, Maddon called on Lester to pitch Game 2 on short rest. Lester struggled through 4 2/3 innings. Edwards and Strop came in to pitch well. But in the 9th inning, Maddon had Lackey come in to stop a Dodger rally. It was a disaster. Lackey clearly was not ready to come into the game as he wandered around the mound in a five minute time span to pitch to two batters. Normally, a starting pitcher takes at least a half hour to warm up. An older pitcher may take longer to get loose. In Game 2, Lackey was called in the 9th to relieve. It appeared he was not physically or mentally prepared to shut down the Dodgers. He gave up the walk off HR to Turner.
Maddon explained that he did not go to closer Davis in the bottom of the 9th in a tie game because he wanted to save him "for a save situation." He said Davis would only be able to throw an inning so he did not want to use him in a non-save situation. But Maddon's comments shows the flaws in his own logic. The only reason Davis could only throw an inning in Game 2 is that he had been burned out in Game 5 of the NLDS. Maddon was looking ahead for the Cubs to score in the 10th inning to set up a save opportunity. But the Cubs offense was dormant - - - there was no guarantee that the Cubs would bat again. There is a general philosophy in baseball that a visiting team uses its closer in the 9th inning of a tied game because it is a sudden death situation. Maddon did the opposite.
Maddon continues to defy his seasonal decisions. He keeps on putting players in situations which they have never done before in their career, let alone in the regular season. A prime example of this was putting Lackey in Game 2. Lackey had never pitched in back to back games in his entire career. Lackey is not a relief pitcher, let alone taking on a closer's role.
Maddon cornered himself with his post-season pitching decisions because he only had Montgomery and Davis available in the pen for the end of Game 2. Montgomery has experience closing out playoff games (Game 7 of the 2016 WS) but he may have been physically drained to be put into a high pressure 9th. Maddon may have also thought he needed a "long" reliever in extra innings.
On the opposite dugout, Dodgers manager Roberts told reporters that he does not hesitate to take out a starter early in a game. He places his relievers to face certain batters. For example, he said he would make sure that Morrow would face Bryant, Rizzo and Contreras (the 2-3-4 hitters) and not use him for the bottom of the order. By assigning his relievers to where he wants them to pitch before the game starts allows Roberts not to second guess himself.
While the focal point of Maddon's decisions has been pitching, the Cubs hitters are in a terrible slump. They are not taking walks. They are fishing for breaking balls in the dirt. They are deer in the headlights of change ups. But Maddon kept putting in players who are struggling at the plate. He has done two double switches which had Almora, his most consistent batter, taken out of the game. He has also forgotten about playing Happ at any position. And the post-season magic of Schwarber appears to be at its end.
It will take a Cubs home sweep to give the team a remote chance to make it to the World Series. Maddon's moves to date have not helped his team win games.
September 14, 2017
CHOICES
We do not know what more Albert Almora can do to secure a starting job.
Last night, Almora became the first Cubs player to drive in six runs during a game he did not start since Mandy Brooks did it at Philadelphia on Aug. 25, 1925.
The 2017 Cubs have been marred by the lack of scoring and lapses in defense. A solution to part of those woes has been sitting on the bench for most of the season.
Almora is the best defensive center fielder on the team. But he has been used in 117 games as mostly a defensive replacement.
Almora stat line: 270 AB, 34 R, .285 BA, 6 HR, 35 RBI, 1 SB, .330 OBP, 0.8 WAR.
But Joe Maddon has preferred to put infielder Ian Happ in the outfield.
Happ's stat line: 321 AB, 51 R, .255 BA, 22 HR, 56 RBI, 8 SB, .329 OBP, 1.5 WAR (-0.2 dWAR).
Happ has more versatility by playing both outfield and infield positions. He is also a switch hitter with power.
But Maddon used to preach defense as a means of winning. That is why he continues to play Heyward in RF even during his batting slumps.
Maddon made the choice of power over defense with Happ over Almora.
The best defensive outfield Maddon could put on the field is Jay in LF, Almora in CF and Heyward in RF. The best power outfield is Schwarber, Happ and Zobrist. Maddon has been mixing and matching all season to find some sort of balance.
The Cubs will have some tough choices in the off-season. The farm system has no real premium assets to trade for missing pieces for 2018 (starting pitching, back up catcher, closer, bullpen arms). Someone from the current major league roster will have to be dealt.
Kyle Schwarber falls in and out of favor. He is hitting just above .200 with power numbers. But he is still a defensive liability in LF and he has not returned to catching since his serious knee injury. Most scouts believe he is destined to be a DH in the American League. But the front office loves "their guys" and Schwarber is one of their guys.
So is Happ and Almora, both first rounders. Maybe in the post-season line up where defense is valued more, both Happ and Almora will be starters. But it is doubtful. If Russell comes back, he will start at short and Baez will move to second (blocking Happ from his natural position). That would move Happ to the outfield, to displace Schwarber (doubtful because of his post-season heroics) or to start in center over Jay and Almora.
No matter what happens this year, Almora has great value being some team's starting center fielder in 2018.
Last night, Almora became the first Cubs player to drive in six runs during a game he did not start since Mandy Brooks did it at Philadelphia on Aug. 25, 1925.
The 2017 Cubs have been marred by the lack of scoring and lapses in defense. A solution to part of those woes has been sitting on the bench for most of the season.
Almora is the best defensive center fielder on the team. But he has been used in 117 games as mostly a defensive replacement.
Almora stat line: 270 AB, 34 R, .285 BA, 6 HR, 35 RBI, 1 SB, .330 OBP, 0.8 WAR.
But Joe Maddon has preferred to put infielder Ian Happ in the outfield.
Happ's stat line: 321 AB, 51 R, .255 BA, 22 HR, 56 RBI, 8 SB, .329 OBP, 1.5 WAR (-0.2 dWAR).
Happ has more versatility by playing both outfield and infield positions. He is also a switch hitter with power.
But Maddon used to preach defense as a means of winning. That is why he continues to play Heyward in RF even during his batting slumps.
Maddon made the choice of power over defense with Happ over Almora.
The best defensive outfield Maddon could put on the field is Jay in LF, Almora in CF and Heyward in RF. The best power outfield is Schwarber, Happ and Zobrist. Maddon has been mixing and matching all season to find some sort of balance.
The Cubs will have some tough choices in the off-season. The farm system has no real premium assets to trade for missing pieces for 2018 (starting pitching, back up catcher, closer, bullpen arms). Someone from the current major league roster will have to be dealt.
Kyle Schwarber falls in and out of favor. He is hitting just above .200 with power numbers. But he is still a defensive liability in LF and he has not returned to catching since his serious knee injury. Most scouts believe he is destined to be a DH in the American League. But the front office loves "their guys" and Schwarber is one of their guys.
So is Happ and Almora, both first rounders. Maybe in the post-season line up where defense is valued more, both Happ and Almora will be starters. But it is doubtful. If Russell comes back, he will start at short and Baez will move to second (blocking Happ from his natural position). That would move Happ to the outfield, to displace Schwarber (doubtful because of his post-season heroics) or to start in center over Jay and Almora.
No matter what happens this year, Almora has great value being some team's starting center fielder in 2018.
September 12, 2017
SURRENDER
With 4 games left with Milwaukee and 7 games left with the Cardinals, the Cubs are on the verge of a historic meltdown. The season has been tempered by a multitude of excuses: the Cubs played late into last season so they are tired (but the Indians did as well and currently have won 19 in a row); players were distracted by all the off-season celebratory events; the weather was cold early in the season; every club they played came into series with an attitude to beat the champions; there were some injuries; bad play would be turned around into consistent team performance; the club needs more Friday night games.
The idea that the 2017 Cubs, in the midst of their dull drum behavior, could turn around their performance on the dime into the 2016 Cubs juggernaut is a myth. But appears management and the team believed the myth. The recent Milwaukee series proved it was a myth.
The Brewers were not supposed to contend for a title. The Cardinals were having a down year. The Cubs were supposed to cake walk through the division and into the playoffs. Many fans are now saying the 2017 season could be one of the great disappointments - - - a choke - - - if the Cubs fail to make the playoffs. In bad times, it is said you will find the best character in an individual. So far, we only see the Cubs on the ropes.
June 26, 2017
TEN PERCENT SOLUTION
Joe Maddon thinks the Cubs have been playing better in the past week.
The team has gone 6-4; mostly due to the spark of Rizzo in the lead off spot. However, it has been feast or famine for both hitting and then pitching which keeps the Cubs mired at .500.
Even if the Cubs play at a 6-4 pace through the end of the season, they would win 90 games. 90 games could win the NL Central as most people believe the Brewers do not have the pitching to contend late in the season. Both wild cards are expected to come from the NL West.
With Schwarber demoted, Russell with a shoulder issue, Hendricks have finger tendonitis for more than a month, Zobrist has nagging injuries, Heyward on the DL, things are much rougher this season than last year's championship run.
The biggest missing pieces have been:
1. Lead off hitter. Fowler was the catalyst for the Cubs offense. As noted, for 140 years, your lead off hitter got on base, the second hitter moved him over or got on, setting the RBI table for your best hitters in the three and four slots. Bryant and Rizzo should be hitting 3 and 4. But there is no one Maddon trusts to lead off or bat second.
2. Consistent starting pitching. Arrieta is still an enigma. He has reverted to his Baltimore problems. Lackey is just about out a gas. Butler is a fifth starter which means that he can throw innings but not much is expected from him except to eat innings. The lack of starters going deep into games is taxing the bullpen. Long relief has been the premium this year, and now that Montgomery is in the #4 spot in the rotation, the Cubs are carrying an extra arm in the pen.
3. Lack of focus. It seems the Cubs are not playing with the same enthusiasm as the club did in 2016. It may be natural for a champion to let down his guard. He was won the trophy. He expects to be treated like a king. He wants to bask in the glory of his accomplishment. He wants to hold on to his place in history. He wants to reap the rewards. There have been so many Cubs with new endorsement deals and media shows that it has to have some level of distraction. There is not a concrete goal in place where the team can focus on to achieve. Getting back to the Series is not the same as remembering they won the Series.
The national baseball writers still believe that the Cubs will turn things around and play like last year's team. They still believe there is plenty of time to get on a "hot streak." Remember when Maddon said the Cub bats would come alive in the hot weather? This June was one of the hottest on record and the Cubs bats are still in a funk.
Sending Schwarber down to the minors may have been the wake up call the team needed, but many may have slept through it. The Cubs are expected to make several major deals by the trade deadline. But finding a professional lead off hitter and a quality starter will be tough.
The team has gone 6-4; mostly due to the spark of Rizzo in the lead off spot. However, it has been feast or famine for both hitting and then pitching which keeps the Cubs mired at .500.
Even if the Cubs play at a 6-4 pace through the end of the season, they would win 90 games. 90 games could win the NL Central as most people believe the Brewers do not have the pitching to contend late in the season. Both wild cards are expected to come from the NL West.
With Schwarber demoted, Russell with a shoulder issue, Hendricks have finger tendonitis for more than a month, Zobrist has nagging injuries, Heyward on the DL, things are much rougher this season than last year's championship run.
The biggest missing pieces have been:
1. Lead off hitter. Fowler was the catalyst for the Cubs offense. As noted, for 140 years, your lead off hitter got on base, the second hitter moved him over or got on, setting the RBI table for your best hitters in the three and four slots. Bryant and Rizzo should be hitting 3 and 4. But there is no one Maddon trusts to lead off or bat second.
2. Consistent starting pitching. Arrieta is still an enigma. He has reverted to his Baltimore problems. Lackey is just about out a gas. Butler is a fifth starter which means that he can throw innings but not much is expected from him except to eat innings. The lack of starters going deep into games is taxing the bullpen. Long relief has been the premium this year, and now that Montgomery is in the #4 spot in the rotation, the Cubs are carrying an extra arm in the pen.
3. Lack of focus. It seems the Cubs are not playing with the same enthusiasm as the club did in 2016. It may be natural for a champion to let down his guard. He was won the trophy. He expects to be treated like a king. He wants to bask in the glory of his accomplishment. He wants to hold on to his place in history. He wants to reap the rewards. There have been so many Cubs with new endorsement deals and media shows that it has to have some level of distraction. There is not a concrete goal in place where the team can focus on to achieve. Getting back to the Series is not the same as remembering they won the Series.
The national baseball writers still believe that the Cubs will turn things around and play like last year's team. They still believe there is plenty of time to get on a "hot streak." Remember when Maddon said the Cub bats would come alive in the hot weather? This June was one of the hottest on record and the Cubs bats are still in a funk.
Sending Schwarber down to the minors may have been the wake up call the team needed, but many may have slept through it. The Cubs are expected to make several major deals by the trade deadline. But finding a professional lead off hitter and a quality starter will be tough.
February 16, 2017
MADDON BEING ?
Spring training usually opens with hope and optimism.
But Cubs camp opened with the strange ramblings of its manager, Joe Maddon.
Maddon spent a great deal of time inarticulately trying to explain his tee-shirt slogan for the 2017 campaign. It left the packed room of reporters puzzled by his statements.
Maddon rambled on with his buzzwords for the new year: uncomfortable, authenticity and heart. In a long speech, he tried to communicate that he wanted his players to continue to feel "uncomfortable" in order for there to be growth. He wanted his players to retain their authenticity. Except, Maddon was not really discussing his desire that his players retain their reliability. He was off in his own tangent. He also stressed that he wanted the team to retain its Heart, which may or may not refer to the players resolve and love of the game.
Maddon, having won the World Series, could have been more reserved and stately in addressing the media. It raised immediate questions of whether Maddon's 2016 routine is going to work in 2017.
In 2016, Maddon kept his squad loose with antics, dress up days and pajama flights. He wanted his young squad to keep playing the game fun. It was a pressure valve release mechanism. The team bought into his management style.
But some writers question whether the "rain delay" players meeting in Game 7 changes the Maddon coaching chemistry. It was the players who were upset with Maddon's decision making in Games 6 and 7. The bottom line from numerous sources after the series confirmed that the players took it upon themselves to win the championship in spite of Maddon's moves. It was not a full blown mutiny, but it was the first crack in the genius armor.
Some pundits do not believe that grizzly veterans like John Lackey or Jon Lester are going to put up with the off-the-field clubhouse antics of magicians, side shows and zoo animal diversions. Some believe it is time to take the club to a professional level. The players are now veterans. They know what it takes to win a championship. They do not need to be coddled or treated like children.
And things may not be perfect in 2017. The Giants won a world series, then failed to get in the playoffs the next year, then won it all again the following year. Baseball is a game of attrition. The Cubs weathered Kyle Schwarber's lost season and Jason Heyward's batting slump. The Cubs lucked out with a healthy and productive five man rotation.
There were many questions that have not been answered by the Cubs. The off-season collection of cast-off starters to stock AAA Iowa enough to hold the rotation together for a full season when Lackey may be on his last fumes? Will Mike Montgomery become a quality starter or fade to an expendable arm like he did in Seattle? Can the Cubs pitching staff overcome the losses of Jason Hammel and Travis Wood's contributions? Will the young players like Schwarber and Javy Baez get enough playing time to soothe their egos? Will Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant continue to improve or will they have a regression year as the league studies their tendencies?
If Maddon continues to be the lovable, hippie uncle to his players, one wonders how long will it take for the players to zone out and disconnect from the Maddon circus wagon. The showman needs to show the baseball world that last year's managerial run was not a fluke. Early statistical projections have the Cubs sitting at 91 wins, which is more than a 10 percent decline from 2016. It is clear that media honeymoon period with the media is over. Maddon is going to get more criticism in 2017 than in the past. His team is expected to repeat, a feat that has not been accomplished since the Big Red Machine of the 1970s. This spring Maddon may need to re-invent himself to meet this challenge.
But Cubs camp opened with the strange ramblings of its manager, Joe Maddon.
Maddon spent a great deal of time inarticulately trying to explain his tee-shirt slogan for the 2017 campaign. It left the packed room of reporters puzzled by his statements.
Maddon rambled on with his buzzwords for the new year: uncomfortable, authenticity and heart. In a long speech, he tried to communicate that he wanted his players to continue to feel "uncomfortable" in order for there to be growth. He wanted his players to retain their authenticity. Except, Maddon was not really discussing his desire that his players retain their reliability. He was off in his own tangent. He also stressed that he wanted the team to retain its Heart, which may or may not refer to the players resolve and love of the game.
Maddon, having won the World Series, could have been more reserved and stately in addressing the media. It raised immediate questions of whether Maddon's 2016 routine is going to work in 2017.
In 2016, Maddon kept his squad loose with antics, dress up days and pajama flights. He wanted his young squad to keep playing the game fun. It was a pressure valve release mechanism. The team bought into his management style.
But some writers question whether the "rain delay" players meeting in Game 7 changes the Maddon coaching chemistry. It was the players who were upset with Maddon's decision making in Games 6 and 7. The bottom line from numerous sources after the series confirmed that the players took it upon themselves to win the championship in spite of Maddon's moves. It was not a full blown mutiny, but it was the first crack in the genius armor.
Some pundits do not believe that grizzly veterans like John Lackey or Jon Lester are going to put up with the off-the-field clubhouse antics of magicians, side shows and zoo animal diversions. Some believe it is time to take the club to a professional level. The players are now veterans. They know what it takes to win a championship. They do not need to be coddled or treated like children.
And things may not be perfect in 2017. The Giants won a world series, then failed to get in the playoffs the next year, then won it all again the following year. Baseball is a game of attrition. The Cubs weathered Kyle Schwarber's lost season and Jason Heyward's batting slump. The Cubs lucked out with a healthy and productive five man rotation.
There were many questions that have not been answered by the Cubs. The off-season collection of cast-off starters to stock AAA Iowa enough to hold the rotation together for a full season when Lackey may be on his last fumes? Will Mike Montgomery become a quality starter or fade to an expendable arm like he did in Seattle? Can the Cubs pitching staff overcome the losses of Jason Hammel and Travis Wood's contributions? Will the young players like Schwarber and Javy Baez get enough playing time to soothe their egos? Will Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant continue to improve or will they have a regression year as the league studies their tendencies?
If Maddon continues to be the lovable, hippie uncle to his players, one wonders how long will it take for the players to zone out and disconnect from the Maddon circus wagon. The showman needs to show the baseball world that last year's managerial run was not a fluke. Early statistical projections have the Cubs sitting at 91 wins, which is more than a 10 percent decline from 2016. It is clear that media honeymoon period with the media is over. Maddon is going to get more criticism in 2017 than in the past. His team is expected to repeat, a feat that has not been accomplished since the Big Red Machine of the 1970s. This spring Maddon may need to re-invent himself to meet this challenge.
October 17, 2016
TIED SERIES
Having predicted before the NLCS the Cubs in 6, I am not worried about the 1-0 Sunday night loss to the Dodgers.
More bothersome is the growing trend of the Tinkerer, Joe Maddon.
He is managing differently than he did in the regular season. A regular season with 103 wins. A regular season that had the Cubs winning the Dodger head to head series.
Playing Heyward in right against Kershaw was just another headscratcher to fans. Heyward had been terrible against Kershaw. The Cubs need offense. The move would have been to play Soler or Almora in right, the latter giving the Cubs a good defensive option.
Defense was not a premium last night because both Kershaw and Hendricks pitched gems. Hendricks gave up less than his league leading ERA, on a quality pitch away that Adrian Gonzalez hit to the opposite field for a homer.
You still need to score one run to win a ball game. The Cubs did not do so. The Cubs failed to even try to manufacture a run, or put pressure on the Dodgers defense. Willson Contreras' first at bat was baffling - - - he did not take the bat off his shoulder for the first two pitches, and weakly walked back to the bench after the K.
The Cubs are still the better team. Chicago has better depth in pitching, hitting and defense.
But the pressure is getting to some players. Rizzo inferred that he is trying to hit 5 run HRs during his slump. His long foul ball out of the park yielded one walk during the evening. Fowler has not been setting up the line up and Bryant is looking at too many close pitches. The 3-4-5 hitters are collectively batting .100.
The Cubs cannot play down to their weaknesses and expect to win games against the Dodgers.
More bothersome is the growing trend of the Tinkerer, Joe Maddon.
He is managing differently than he did in the regular season. A regular season with 103 wins. A regular season that had the Cubs winning the Dodger head to head series.
Playing Heyward in right against Kershaw was just another headscratcher to fans. Heyward had been terrible against Kershaw. The Cubs need offense. The move would have been to play Soler or Almora in right, the latter giving the Cubs a good defensive option.
Defense was not a premium last night because both Kershaw and Hendricks pitched gems. Hendricks gave up less than his league leading ERA, on a quality pitch away that Adrian Gonzalez hit to the opposite field for a homer.
You still need to score one run to win a ball game. The Cubs did not do so. The Cubs failed to even try to manufacture a run, or put pressure on the Dodgers defense. Willson Contreras' first at bat was baffling - - - he did not take the bat off his shoulder for the first two pitches, and weakly walked back to the bench after the K.
The Cubs are still the better team. Chicago has better depth in pitching, hitting and defense.
But the pressure is getting to some players. Rizzo inferred that he is trying to hit 5 run HRs during his slump. His long foul ball out of the park yielded one walk during the evening. Fowler has not been setting up the line up and Bryant is looking at too many close pitches. The 3-4-5 hitters are collectively batting .100.
The Cubs cannot play down to their weaknesses and expect to win games against the Dodgers.
October 11, 2016
THE FLAWS
MadBum had a bad arm last night. The Cubs radio team saw it immediately in the first inning when Bumgarner only threw two fastballs. At that point the Cubs had an advantage; batters could work the soft counts and increase the Giant's ace pitch count. It worked. Bumgarner was out of the game in the 5th.
Jake Arrieta was better than lowered expectations, especially when he hit a 3 -run homer to give the Cubs a large, early lead.
In an elimination game, you should not change what was working in the past. But Joe Maddon wanted to juggle and tinker the entire game. It showed the flaws in the Cub team.
Mike Montgomery threw 4 good relief innings, because he had to. Maddon had used everyone in the pen except C.J. Edwards.
Maddon burned through Wood, Rondon, Chapman and Grimm in the 8th inning.
The bullpen situation unraveled in the 8th when Maddon called upon Chapman to do something he told Joe in the regular season he was uncomfortable in doing: the multiple inning save. Chapman gave up the lead in the bottom of the 8th; the staff getting torched for 3 runs.
For some reason, Maddon panicked in the 8th, thinking that he had to win the series then and now.
But Kris Bryant hit a homer to tie the game in the 9th. This lead to a long, extra inning game with the Cubs short on bullets.
Montgomery was the only long reliever left in the pen. Some may say that was a roster mistake knowing that the Giants-Cubs play tight games. Further complicating the matter was Kyle Hendricks short start because of the line drive off the forearm. The keeping of only 11 pitchers may not be the critical issue unless you believe Cahill was a better choice than Coghlan. But Cahill would have given Maddon more relief innings than Grimm.
Montgomery gets the loss in the scorecard, but the loss really falls on the manager and how he used his roster during the game.
Now, after a long night game, the Cubs have to come back and regroup after giving the Giants the momentum and confidence to come back. The pressure is really on the Cubs tonight. And the team acquired John Lackey for his big playoff game experience.
Jake Arrieta was better than lowered expectations, especially when he hit a 3 -run homer to give the Cubs a large, early lead.
In an elimination game, you should not change what was working in the past. But Joe Maddon wanted to juggle and tinker the entire game. It showed the flaws in the Cub team.
Mike Montgomery threw 4 good relief innings, because he had to. Maddon had used everyone in the pen except C.J. Edwards.
Maddon burned through Wood, Rondon, Chapman and Grimm in the 8th inning.
The bullpen situation unraveled in the 8th when Maddon called upon Chapman to do something he told Joe in the regular season he was uncomfortable in doing: the multiple inning save. Chapman gave up the lead in the bottom of the 8th; the staff getting torched for 3 runs.
For some reason, Maddon panicked in the 8th, thinking that he had to win the series then and now.
But Kris Bryant hit a homer to tie the game in the 9th. This lead to a long, extra inning game with the Cubs short on bullets.
Montgomery was the only long reliever left in the pen. Some may say that was a roster mistake knowing that the Giants-Cubs play tight games. Further complicating the matter was Kyle Hendricks short start because of the line drive off the forearm. The keeping of only 11 pitchers may not be the critical issue unless you believe Cahill was a better choice than Coghlan. But Cahill would have given Maddon more relief innings than Grimm.
Montgomery gets the loss in the scorecard, but the loss really falls on the manager and how he used his roster during the game.
Now, after a long night game, the Cubs have to come back and regroup after giving the Giants the momentum and confidence to come back. The pressure is really on the Cubs tonight. And the team acquired John Lackey for his big playoff game experience.
August 22, 2016
WOOD HE PLEASE STOP?
Will Maddon please stop with the manta of playing players out of position?
There was absolutely no reason to play Travis Wood in LF during yesterday's Rockies blowout of the Cubs. None.
The bullpen has been hit with a surge of injuries and tired arms. You do not need one of your healthy lefties to go out and try to cover the vast space of left field, in thin air, just to save Jason Heyward who had not played in three consecutive games.
Calling it a Maddon "fun" interjection in a bad game is no excuse. Yes, Wood got a single in his only at-bat while the rest of the team mustered three. But what if he got hurt playing left in a meaningless game?
The more times Maddon does this stunt, the odds increase that someone will get hurt.
The Cubs cannot believe they are coasting to the playoffs. The bullpen continues to be a concern, and the starting rotation needs skip-start rest. With Montgomery and Cahill being the spot-start tandem, that thins out the regular bullpen availability of relievers like Wood.
In September, the Cubs will bring up additional outfielders and infielders and as many live arms that they can find. But until then, Maddon needs to just play players in their natural positions.
There was absolutely no reason to play Travis Wood in LF during yesterday's Rockies blowout of the Cubs. None.
The bullpen has been hit with a surge of injuries and tired arms. You do not need one of your healthy lefties to go out and try to cover the vast space of left field, in thin air, just to save Jason Heyward who had not played in three consecutive games.
Calling it a Maddon "fun" interjection in a bad game is no excuse. Yes, Wood got a single in his only at-bat while the rest of the team mustered three. But what if he got hurt playing left in a meaningless game?
The more times Maddon does this stunt, the odds increase that someone will get hurt.
The Cubs cannot believe they are coasting to the playoffs. The bullpen continues to be a concern, and the starting rotation needs skip-start rest. With Montgomery and Cahill being the spot-start tandem, that thins out the regular bullpen availability of relievers like Wood.
In September, the Cubs will bring up additional outfielders and infielders and as many live arms that they can find. But until then, Maddon needs to just play players in their natural positions.
August 1, 2016
TAKE AWAY HIS SCORECARD
Last nights Cubs game was terrible display of front office and field management.
First, who cares if Matooze has a contract out on Tuesday if he does not get promoted
to the big league roster? The Cubs sent down bullpen arm Grimm for 10 days to showcase
"Matooze" - - - a terrible slow pitch lefty who is a failed Oriole starter FOUR years ago?!
I commented that after the top of first inning it looked like a spring training game.
Second, Maddon went Nutty Professor again last night - - - running out of players and
pitchers. I cringed when Wood crashed into the left field brick wall while making a catch.
He is the most valuable middle reliever on the team. Maddon is going to get a player a career ending injury by playing them out of position. Davy Martinez should take away Maddon's scorecard
in the 6th inning of games.
Third, a suicide squeeze with one out in the 12th by Jon Lester? Extremely lucky on the
play because Heyward got a bad jump off third, and the Seattle pitcher did not field the
bunt cleanly and tossed it to the wrong side of the catcher.
Sure, it was an exciting game.
Sure, the fans left happy.
But the Cubs never should have been in a 6-0 deficit.
Unless the Cubs decide on a real six man rotation to save the starting 5's arms for October, this "spot" start "let's throw spaghetti arms on the wall and see what sticks" is a bad plan.
If the Cubs were thinking that they would use last night's spot starter in a possible trade today, well, that notion turned to a charcoal nugget by the end of the second inning. This spot start also adds to the major league roster shortage. We expect Matusz to get cut or waived today - - - which means the Cubs have to call up someone on their 40 man roster (but it cannot be LaStella or Grimm.) Unless Soler or Cahill is ready to come off the disabled list, the pickings are slim in Iowa.
First, who cares if Matooze has a contract out on Tuesday if he does not get promoted
to the big league roster? The Cubs sent down bullpen arm Grimm for 10 days to showcase
"Matooze" - - - a terrible slow pitch lefty who is a failed Oriole starter FOUR years ago?!
I commented that after the top of first inning it looked like a spring training game.
Second, Maddon went Nutty Professor again last night - - - running out of players and
pitchers. I cringed when Wood crashed into the left field brick wall while making a catch.
He is the most valuable middle reliever on the team. Maddon is going to get a player a career ending injury by playing them out of position. Davy Martinez should take away Maddon's scorecard
in the 6th inning of games.
Third, a suicide squeeze with one out in the 12th by Jon Lester? Extremely lucky on the
play because Heyward got a bad jump off third, and the Seattle pitcher did not field the
bunt cleanly and tossed it to the wrong side of the catcher.
Sure, it was an exciting game.
Sure, the fans left happy.
But the Cubs never should have been in a 6-0 deficit.
Unless the Cubs decide on a real six man rotation to save the starting 5's arms for October, this "spot" start "let's throw spaghetti arms on the wall and see what sticks" is a bad plan.
If the Cubs were thinking that they would use last night's spot starter in a possible trade today, well, that notion turned to a charcoal nugget by the end of the second inning. This spot start also adds to the major league roster shortage. We expect Matusz to get cut or waived today - - - which means the Cubs have to call up someone on their 40 man roster (but it cannot be LaStella or Grimm.) Unless Soler or Cahill is ready to come off the disabled list, the pickings are slim in Iowa.
June 29, 2016
ANOTHER MAD GAME
When you take a risk and it works out, you are a genius. But if you should not have had to take a risk in the first place, one could say you are reckless and lucky.
The Cubs are a much better team than the AAA Reds. But it took 15 innings to put away the last place club. And in the process, it was another maddening game.
Joe Maddon ran out of position players in the 13th inning. That should never happen. But Joe continues to believe that he can mix and match players like it is a Stat-O-Matic card or video game. By the end of the game, three relief pitchers had played left field.
Travis Wood and Spencer Patton alternated pitching and playing left in the 14th inning like it was a 7 year old youth baseball game. Wood pitched the 15th while Pedro Strop, for no apparent reason, stood out in left field.
Maddon justified the bizarre situation. "We were down to almost nothing," he said after using 22 of the 25 players on his roster. "Travis, my God, what an athlete. ... Travis made everything possible. He may have had his best stuff all year."
But it should have never come to that point. The Reds pitching staff is a mess, but the Cubs could only scratch out 2 runs in 9 frames. The Reds Brandon Phillips was hobbled like a 75 year old man after taking fouls off his ankle, arch and rib cage. But Hector Rondon blew another save, and that started a weird shuffle the lineup deck in Maddon's mind.
When Maddon put in 40 year old reliever Joel Peralta in the 13th, he replaced OF Chris Coghlan in left field with Wood. That move makes no sense. Period. Coghlan is a better defensive player. In a tied game, in extra innings, defense matters.Especially when the Reds had the winning run at second base! Maddon could have always replaced Peralta with Wood without taking out Coghlan.
Maddon must have mentally justified keeping Wood in the game to get pitcher-batter match ups. Wood got to bat in the top of the 14th before going back out to left field in the bottom of the inning while Maddon called upon Patton to pitch. After Patton got an out, he replaced Wood in left field and Wood took the mound to get left handed hitter Jay Bruce out on a ground ball. Patton then came back in from left to get the final out of the 14th.
The Cubs away with the over-managing moves by scoring 5 runs in the 15th, highlighted by Javy Baez's grand slam to deep center field. But it did not stop Maddon from using Jason Hammel to pinch hit for Patton, requiring Pedro Strop to play left field in the bottom of the 15h.
After the game,Maddon said he had never used three pitchers in the outfield in a single game and was shaking his head trying to remember all the decision-making that went on to pull this game off.
And that is part of the problem. The decision making process of making so many moves leads to potential problems, including situations later on in the season. As many other commentators have said for more than a week, throwing players in different positions can lead to Kyle Schwarber injuries, especially using much needed catalyst Willson Contreras in left field.
Maybe things will calm down when Jorge Soler and Tommy LaStella come back off the DL. But probably not.
The Cubs are a much better team than the AAA Reds. But it took 15 innings to put away the last place club. And in the process, it was another maddening game.
Joe Maddon ran out of position players in the 13th inning. That should never happen. But Joe continues to believe that he can mix and match players like it is a Stat-O-Matic card or video game. By the end of the game, three relief pitchers had played left field.
Travis Wood and Spencer Patton alternated pitching and playing left in the 14th inning like it was a 7 year old youth baseball game. Wood pitched the 15th while Pedro Strop, for no apparent reason, stood out in left field.
Maddon justified the bizarre situation. "We were down to almost nothing," he said after using 22 of the 25 players on his roster. "Travis, my God, what an athlete. ... Travis made everything possible. He may have had his best stuff all year."
But it should have never come to that point. The Reds pitching staff is a mess, but the Cubs could only scratch out 2 runs in 9 frames. The Reds Brandon Phillips was hobbled like a 75 year old man after taking fouls off his ankle, arch and rib cage. But Hector Rondon blew another save, and that started a weird shuffle the lineup deck in Maddon's mind.
When Maddon put in 40 year old reliever Joel Peralta in the 13th, he replaced OF Chris Coghlan in left field with Wood. That move makes no sense. Period. Coghlan is a better defensive player. In a tied game, in extra innings, defense matters.Especially when the Reds had the winning run at second base! Maddon could have always replaced Peralta with Wood without taking out Coghlan.
Maddon must have mentally justified keeping Wood in the game to get pitcher-batter match ups. Wood got to bat in the top of the 14th before going back out to left field in the bottom of the inning while Maddon called upon Patton to pitch. After Patton got an out, he replaced Wood in left field and Wood took the mound to get left handed hitter Jay Bruce out on a ground ball. Patton then came back in from left to get the final out of the 14th.
The Cubs away with the over-managing moves by scoring 5 runs in the 15th, highlighted by Javy Baez's grand slam to deep center field. But it did not stop Maddon from using Jason Hammel to pinch hit for Patton, requiring Pedro Strop to play left field in the bottom of the 15h.
After the game,Maddon said he had never used three pitchers in the outfield in a single game and was shaking his head trying to remember all the decision-making that went on to pull this game off.
And that is part of the problem. The decision making process of making so many moves leads to potential problems, including situations later on in the season. As many other commentators have said for more than a week, throwing players in different positions can lead to Kyle Schwarber injuries, especially using much needed catalyst Willson Contreras in left field.
Maybe things will calm down when Jorge Soler and Tommy LaStella come back off the DL. But probably not.
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