Championship caliber teams pitch well and play above average to great defense. Most pitchers will tell you a solid defense behind them clips off a half a run off their ERA.
The modern game has de-emphasized defense because it is hard to statistically quantify defense metrics. Instead, the trend is to mirror the video game world of big bats and big power pitchers. And playing players in multiple positions so a manager has line-up flexibility (and a shorter bench since the bullpens have been growing in number and prominence.)
Javy Baez made his spring debut in center field. It was an odd choice considering the Cubs just signed Dexter Fowler to be the regular CF with Justin Heyward as the back-up from his RF position.
ESPNChicago noted Baez's CF debut was less than stellar:
Baez was tested immediately in center field where he's trying to learn a
new position. The first three Milwaukee hitters hit the ball to him
starting with Jonathan Villar's
triple off the wall. Baez got turned around several times and should
have played it off the wall to keep Villar to a double. Then he threw
offline on a sacrifice fly before taking a bad route on the next fly
ball which popped in and out of his glove.
"I haven't missed one ball all spring training," Baez said afterwards. "Good thing it happens now and not later."
Baez statement is true in one extent: it is better to get the butterflies and fielding issues worked on during spring training. But putting even an athletic player into CF cold is very difficult. Jimmy Piersall said that playing CF is the hardest outfield position because you cannot see the angle of the ball immediately off the bat. In the corner outfields, you can quickly gauge the depth and angle of the hit ball. But in center, your perception is straight on. That is why good fielder will know what the pitcher is going to throw and shade himself toward the potential contact field. In addition to tracking the balls, a center fielder has to cover more ground. Speed and arm accuracy are critical tools for a center fielder who needs to anticipate the hitter and runners and where to hit the cut-off man.
Baez has no game experience playing CF. It will be a baptism by trial and error. But it may be a case of diminishing returns. He is slated to be the super-sub infielder for Joe Maddon since he can already play SS, 2B and 3B. But since the Cubs are probably only going to carry 4 outfielders and have a short bench, Maddon would like Baez to be that 5th OF.
If Maddon rests his infielders on a weekly basis, Baez could play 3 times a week or approximately 72 games this season. He would probably get around 300 ABs as an infield starter. He could be a defensive replacement or double switch candidate off the bench. He could also be a pinch hitter. So he will probably get at least 400 AB during the season as a utility player without having to play the outfield.
It comes down to this: Matt Szczur is out of options. He can play plus defense in the outfield. He is a better OF defender than Baez. But with four "starters" already penciled in the outfield, Szczur won't play very much. And Baez can be the right handed pinch hitter off the bench. So defense will be sacrificed if Baez takes Szczur's 5th outfielder spot on the depth chart.
