Showing posts with label Heyward. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Heyward. Show all posts

March 7, 2018

TOP OF THE ORDER

In six spring training games, Ian Happ has owned the lead off spot. He is hitting .471 with 4 home runs, 7 RBI and .500 OBP.

In his rookie season, Happ hit .253 with 24 HR, 68 RBI, 8 SB and .328 OBP.

Maddon has been trying out Happ, Jason Heyward and Albert Almora in the lead off spot. Schwarber ha also been mentioned as a possible lead off man. It appears that Maddon wants an outfielder to lead off games.

But Happ has clearly drawn the attention of the media and fans. In comparison to Heyward, Happ's offensive production is far superior. In outfield defense, Heyward is much better with a .14 dWAR verus Happ's 0.0 dWAR. Heyward had a 2.3 WAR in 2017. Happ had a 1.8 WAR.

It may come down to which players will play the most in the outfield. The Cubs love Schwarber but can he be a consistent hitter against both right handed and left handed pitchers? Almora has been a bench player. Is he ready for a full time center field role?  Happ was a super sub playing multiple positions in the OF and second base. Will he take playing time away from Zobrist?

Since the lead off man is critical to getting the team off to a good start, it would appear Happ and Almora would share those duties. Whether they will platoon in CF is another question. It is possible that Happ could emerge as a full time starter by platooning with both Almora and a corner outfielder (Schwarber or Heyward).

The elephant in the room is Heyward's contract. But if make Heyward a defensive replacement, the person replacing him at the plate must be productive to off-set the decline in defensive WAR.

Since Happ is a switch hitter with power from both sides of the plate, he makes the most sense to match up against starting pitchers.  Against a right handed starter, the outfield could be Schwarber in left, Happ in center and Heyward in right. Against a left handed pitcher, the outfield could be Schwarber or Zobrist in left, Almora in center and Happ in the right.

Happ may be the most valuable asset Maddon has to use in 2018. While the team wants to give Heyward a full opportunity to correct his offensive problems, it should not be at the expense of Happ.


November 8, 2017

BAD MONEY TRADES

It is projected that the Cubs will have approximately $70 million to spend on 8 major league roster spots ( 2- SP; 1-C, 1- OF, 4-RP).

Unless a team is really close to going deep into the playoffs, like the Cubs were last season, general managers are not likely to trade their minor league talent to acquire pricey veterans. Teams now value young players who are cost controllable for 6 years more than star, free agents.

The winter trade market is different than the trade deadline. In the winter, every team is re-tooling their roster and making organizational talent evaluations. They review what worked and what did not work last season. They have to project how their minor league players will develop in the first and second half of next season. They have to project how their major league roster is strong and weak to adapt/compensate for a long season ahead.

But the most jarring evaluation point is the dead money portion of the payroll. Owners loathe paying millions of dollars for players no longer with the club, or players who are drastically underperforming their contract value.

In the winter you see more "change of scenery" deals where teams are willing to trade an underperforming player for another team's underperforming player with the hope that the new team can "fix" the player. Many of these deals are trying to lessen the dead money portion of the payroll budget.

The first speculative dead money deal of the winter had numerous reports involving the Giants and the Cubs. Yahoo Sports and MLB.com reported that the the Giants have their eye acquiring  Cubs outfielder Jason Heyward, for starter Jeff Samardzija and closer Mark Melancon.

Heyward, a four-time Gold Glove winner, is still owed $134 million over the next six years of his contract. While he's proved dependable with the glove, his production with the bat has fallen off in recent years. This past season, the 28-year-old hit .259/.326/.389 with 15 doubles, 11 homers and 59 RBI in 126 games.

The Giants are looking for a new center fielder. Heyward's primary position is right field, but he has started 63 career games in center field, including 12 in 2017

Samardzija is owed $59.4 million for the next three years. While Samardzija finished with a 9-15 record and a 4.42 ERA this past season, he finished with a 6.41 strikeout-to-walk ratio,  good for second in the National League and fourth overall in the majors. He also surpassed 200 innings for the fifth straight season, finishing with 207.2 innings pitched. In the past two seasons with the Giants, he has a5.2 WAR, much better than his Cub years.

Melancon's first season with the Giants didn't go as planned. After signing a four-year, $62 million deal last winter, he battled an arm injury all year. He spent chunks of the season on the disabled list and appeared in just 32 games. When he returned in August, he served as the setup man to Sam Dyson. In early September,  He finished with a 4.50 ERA and 29 strikeouts in 30 innings.

Melancon underwent pronator release surgery for nerve entrapments in the proximal forearm  In a study of 205 patients using a self-assessment questionnaire, 45 months after the operation. The questionnaire consisted of visual analogue scale recordings of pre- and postoperative pain during rest and activity, questions about remaining symptoms and appreciation of the result and the Disabilities of Arm, Shoulder and Hand form (DASH). Altogether, 59% of the patients were satisfied, 58% considered themselves improved, and 3% as being entirely relieved of all symptoms. 

Melacon, 32, is owed $53 million for the next three years. There is a current medical condition that is problematic. You could not count on him to be a viable closer candidate.

The Giants are trying to unload two players and $102.4 million in salary. The Cubs would like to shed Heyward's contract, but would only get about $30 million in relief. But this rumor is a typical dead money type trade. They look for upside potential while trying to shed downside player negatives.

March 21, 2017

SPRING CLEANING

Spring training is meant for players to get back into the "swing" of baseball.

No one has had more attention on his swing than Jason Heyward. He spent the off-season changing his 2016 swing into a better, less rocking, more stable thus reliable stroke.

But he is only hitting .132 in camp. He has 6 RBIs but only 5 base hits. He continues to pull grounders to second base. His set up may be different, but the result is the same.

Joe Maddon spoke with ESPN Chicago about Heyward.

Some scouts think the changes to Heyward's off-season routine has not changed his overall swing.

“I had a scout sit in my office two days ago and say the opposite,” Maddon said over the weekend. “He thinks it’s entirely different. He kind of liked it. Regardless of what a scout says in the stands, it doesn’t really impact my feelings at all. I know what I’m seeing -- a totally different swing. The guy that says it’s the same, I’m totally disappointed in the scout, actually.”

But another scout saw the flaw. “He has an arm bar [straight arm] and he’s late,” one NL scout said. “When you’re late, everything breaks down.”

Last season, Heyward's approach in the box was too "handsy." He was rocking his hands front to back with a chicken swing arm motion. It is a busy set-up with a lot of moving parts. Every batter has a trigger move to start his swing. In Heyward's case, depending on the rocking motion as the pitch is thrown, he has to "catch up" to his trigger point.

By contrast, Kris Bryant has a very quiet set up. His bat rests nearly perpendicular to his shoulder. He waits and makes a samurai level to upper cut swing in the zone. He is already set in his trigger position before the pitcher throws the ball.

Off-season videos of Heyward showed a different set up. He did not have the chicken swing nervousness. His hands stayed more central. However, he still has a level swing through the zone so he is not elevating the ball on contact.

I thought that Heyward should have gone to see Bryant's father, who is a batting guru who helped perfect Bryant's swing. Or sought advice from a hitting professional like ex-Cub Darryl Ward who constantly talked with teammates about hitting, contact and how to hit in situations.

But perhaps Heyward is getting too much advice that it has become a mental thing.

Regardless, Heyward will find his bat in the lower third of the line-up.

March 4, 2016

BAEZ IN CENTER

Championship caliber teams pitch well and play above average to great defense. Most pitchers will tell you a solid defense behind them clips off a half a run off their ERA.

The modern game has de-emphasized defense because it is hard to statistically quantify defense metrics. Instead, the trend is to mirror the video game world of big bats and big power pitchers. And playing players in multiple positions so a manager has line-up flexibility (and a shorter bench since the bullpens have been growing in number and prominence.)

Javy Baez made his spring debut in center field. It was an odd choice considering the Cubs just signed Dexter Fowler to be the regular CF with Justin Heyward as the back-up from his RF position.

ESPNChicago noted Baez's CF debut was less than stellar:

Baez was tested immediately in center field where he's trying to learn a new position. The first three Milwaukee hitters hit the ball to him starting with Jonathan Villar's triple off the wall. Baez got turned around several times and should have played it off the wall to keep Villar to a double. Then he threw offline on a sacrifice fly before taking a bad route on the next fly ball which popped in and out of his glove.

"I haven't missed one ball all spring training," Baez said afterwards. "Good thing it happens now and not later."

Baez statement is true in one extent: it is better to get the butterflies and fielding issues worked on during spring training. But putting even an athletic player into CF cold is very difficult. Jimmy Piersall said that playing CF is the hardest outfield position because you cannot see the angle of the ball immediately off the bat. In the corner outfields, you can quickly gauge the depth and angle of the hit ball. But in center, your perception is straight on. That is why good fielder will know what the pitcher is going to throw and shade himself toward the potential contact field. In addition to tracking the balls, a center fielder has to cover more ground. Speed and arm accuracy are critical tools for a center fielder who needs to anticipate the hitter and runners and where to hit the cut-off man.

Baez has no game experience playing CF. It will be a baptism by trial and error. But it may be a case of diminishing returns. He is slated to be the super-sub infielder for Joe Maddon since he can already play SS, 2B and 3B. But since the Cubs are probably only going to carry 4 outfielders and have a short bench, Maddon would like Baez to be that 5th OF.

If Maddon rests his infielders on a weekly basis, Baez could play 3 times a week or approximately 72 games this season. He would probably get around 300 ABs as an infield starter. He could be a defensive replacement or double switch candidate off the bench. He could also be a pinch hitter. So he will probably get at least 400 AB during the season as a utility player without having to play the outfield.

It comes down to this: Matt Szczur is out of options. He can play plus defense in the outfield. He is a better OF defender than Baez. But with four "starters" already penciled in the outfield, Szczur won't play very much. And Baez can be the right handed pinch hitter off the bench. So defense will be sacrificed if Baez takes Szczur's 5th outfielder spot on the depth chart.

December 21, 2015

ST. LOUIS VILE

I cannot recall such vile vitriol from a city and fan base after a player leaves via free agency. 

When the Cubs signed Jason Heyward, Cardinal fans went nuts on social media. The insults were harsh and stupid. The St. Louis media also jumped on this hate bandwagon, calling Heyward "disloyal," a "traitor," and a "Benedict Arnold." They could not believe Heyward turned down a "better" offer from the Cardinals to play for the hated Cubs.

Heyward only played for the Cardinals for one year! He did not come up through the St. Louis system; he was an Atlanta Brave for most of his career. 

And if you break down his new deal, the Cubs actually are paying more than the Cardinals AAV deal. With the signing bonus and the op out clause, the Cubs are paying Heyward $26 million/season for the first three years. 

Is this still crass bitterness that the Cubs defeated the Cardinals in the post season? 

Or the impending fear and doom that the Cubs are now a championship caliber team?

But Heyward's explanation of his decision is noteworthy.

In his introductory press conference this week, Heyward explained that he was drawn to the Cubs in part because of the roster stability he expects them to have going forward. 

 “Knowing the core is young and those guys are going to be around for a while is very exciting,” Heyward said, according to ESPN. “I don’t want to take the highest dollar amount when my gut is telling me to go somewhere else. Being 26 years old and knowing that my contract would put me in any clubhouse for longer than most people there, you have to look at age, how fast the team is changing and how soon those changes will come about.”

December 11, 2015

SHOCK AND AWE

Multiple reports state that the Cubs will sign free agent Justin Heyward.

This is a shocking development since the Cubs have been gerrymandering their books in order to sign Ben Zobrist and John Lackey.

It may go back to a comment made last week.

"We have a sense of urgency. We have a short championship window."

Jed Hoyer said that last week.

Talk about "the Plan" being turned inside out.

The front office has been frantic in their change in philosophy, spending
2015 "leftover" money (maybe the extra revenue from this post season),
deferring/back loading contracts and trading veterans for salary dumps.

Perhaps it is because Theo Epstein's contract expires in October 2016.
Perhaps the writing is on the wall that the Boom Revenue of 2020 is a mirage.
Perhaps because the Cubs won't be able to afford signing Bryant, Schwarber,
Soler and Russell.

And because the core of the pitching staff is on the downside of career
(Lester and Lackey) and one (Arrieta) who had an unrepeatable magical season.


One report said the Nationals offered Heyward $200 million. The Cub report says Heyward will sign for less than $200 million.

Analysts have had a wide range of opinions on Heyward's value, from a low of $100 million to a high end $192 million. It was reported that Heyward was looking for $24 million/season, money usually reserved for power hitters like Pujols and Cano (Heyward only hit .293, 13 HR, 60 RBI last year).

There is also an open question whether Heyward can play an expanded center field between slow footed, negative defenders Schwarber and Soler. 

By coming to the Cubs, Heyward can hide in the shadows of other players such as Lester, Rizzo, Bryant and Schwarber. 

And the Cubs have gone "all in" in 2016 so that may have convinced Heyward to sign with Chicago.

December 10, 2015

HEYWARD'S VALUE

The reason why there is such little activity on Jason Heyward this off season
is that teams cannot get a handle on how to evaluate him.

As one old time front office person says, "we don't pay for defense."

But in the modern advanced metric evaluation systems, defense and WAR
are more complete measuring sticks. By that valuation, Heyward, 26 and
still not in his prime, has averaged a 5.2 WAR during his career (6.5 last year).

Just by his average WAR alone, this equates to $31.2 million per year.

The top hitters in 2015 were paid $24 million (Robinson Cano and Albert Pujols).
But no one compares Heyward to Cano and Pujols in regard to offensive production.

In 2015, Heyward hit /293, 13 HR 60 RBI with .359 OBP.

If you take out the defensive WAR for his career, he is at 21.3 or an annual average of 3.55.
At 3.55, his annual salary would be around $21.3 million/season.

And here is the gulf: $10.00 million per season on a four or five year deal.

Teams and Heyward's people are not in the same universe starting points.

At $24 million per season, teams expect a hitter to be a #3 or #4 power hitter/run producer.
Heyward is not that type of hitter, even though the Cardinals used him in the No. 3 slot
because of injuries to other players, like Matt Holliday.

The whole financial structure of the league could fall off its foundation if a 60 RBI guy
is suddenly the highest paid hitter in the majors. I don't see a team owner getting the
wrath of the other clubs for overpaying Heyward.