The Cubs finished the first "half" of the season with a tight win against the Pirates.
At the All-Star Break, the Cubs are in the first place in the NL Central with a 53-35 record, with a 7 game lead. The lead was built by a torrent 25-6 start, and then nose dive 6-15 finish.
As the season began, the Cubs were comfortable with the top three starters: Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester and newly acquired John Lackey, a big game playoff pitcher. The Cubs hoped that Jason Hammel would rebound and Kyle Hendricks would be a serviceable 5th starter.
The world thought the Cubs would be able to hit with a line up of young and old bangers: Dexter Fowler is an offense minded lead off hitter; Kyle Schwarber has a pure contact swing, rookie of the year Kris Bryant would get better, Anthony Rizzo is always solid and newcomer Ben Zobrist would solidify the infield. The Cubs came out gangbusters to have a historic run differential during the first 30 games.
But Schwarber got hurt in an outfield collision. It was a serious knee
injury (of the football type). He is gone for the season. That put the
Cubs one lefty bat short. But Zobrist has come through in the clutch and
the season streamed along victory lane. But then Fowler hurt his
hamstring in June and he has been gone nearly a month. He DH'd on
Saturday in South Bend, but did not play on Sunday. He won't play in the
All-Star game. His return is indefinite.
The highlights:
Rizzo, .299 BA, 21 HR, 63 RBI
Bryant, .286 BA, 25 HR, 65 RBI
Zobrist, .283 BA, 13 HR, 47 RBI
Fowler, .290 BA, 7 HR, 28 RBI
The concerns:
Montero, .201 BA, 5 HR, 23 RBI
Heyward, .243 BA, 4 H$, 28 RBI
Russell, .237 BA, 11 HR, 51 RBI
People wonder if Russell is going to be a career .235 hitter with a great glove. But others point out that he has 51 RBIs for a shortstop, which is far above average.
Heyward has gotten a lot of grief for his offensive woes, but the catching has been weak hitting until the call up of Willson Contreras (.305 BA, 5 HR, 16 RBI in 83 AB). Maddon was using Contreras like Schwarber, mostly in LF to get his bat into a struggling line up.
It also appears that Maddon has overmanaged more games this season (costing the Cubs a few games such as running out of bench players early). The critics still do not like Maddon playing players outside their natural position, such as Bryant in LF (who bruised his knee colliding with Almora on a play similar to the Schwarber injury incident). But Maddon justifies it by saying having players play multiple positions "extends" his short bench (which it does not because the number of players is the same).
It is hard to say that one player makes a line up purr, but Fowler is the catalyst for the Cubs. His nagging hamstring issue was a major reason for the Cubs first half offense woes. With his return still uncertain, the Cubs will have to rely more heavily on their prospects.
Maddon believes that it is the starting pitching that pilots this team. In the first half of the first half, the Cubs starters sported a combined ERA under 2.70. In the last 10 games, it is more than 5.70. The Cubs have gone 0 for 10 in quality starts in July.
Despite the horrible last starts of most of the starters, their overall records are very good:
Lackey: 7-5, 3.70 ERA, 1.106 WHIP
Arrieta: 12-4, 2.68 ERA, 1.093 WHIP
Lester: 9-4, 3.01 ERA, 1.084 WHIP
Hammel: 7-5, 3.96 ERA, 1.131 WHIP
Hendricks: 7-6, 2.55 ERA, 1.034 WHIP
Opponents have turned the table on the Cubs. Teams are taking more pitches from the starters (including biting sliders bending just out of the strike zone). By taking more pitches, batters are working deeper counts and putting more stress on the starters to be more precise. With a wildly variable umpire strike zone night to night, ultra competitive starters like Lester and Lackey can easily lose their cool and focus. And once they have to throw one into the zone, batters pounce.
That was the formula for the Cubs hot opening streak. Working long counts, getting to the opponent's bullpen early, "earning" walks and putting up big innings. That is how the Cubs became the talk of the league, the juggernaut.
Good teams adapt to changing conditions. Bad teams find excuses instead of solutions. Maddon hinted that the ending 24 straight days without a game break was grueling, but the Cubs only had Adam Warren stretched out for one spot start. Since mid-June, the bullpen has been taxed (especially for those few pitchers Maddon "trusts" in tight situations).
In 88 games, Travis Wood has pitched in 44, Justin Grimm 40, and Pedro Strop 38. Much of the stressful work load has come in the last 6 weeks.So far, Wood has compiled a 0.3 WAR, Grimm a negative 0.3 WAR and Strop a 0.5 WAR. Closer Hector Rondon has only 14 saves (4 blown saves) for a 1.1 WAR.
The consensus is that the Cubs need to go out and acquire bullpen help. Every contender is looking to improve their pens. A few have questioned whether the Cubs need to go out and get another quality starter (a harder task) because Hammel's history of poor second halves. Part of the issue is that the starters have failed to get through 6 IP. There have been no real rest days for the pen in a month. The quality of the bullpen is directly related to the quality starts of the rotation.
Arrieta's mechanics are messed up. Lester is getting squeezed by umpires. Lackey is old and looks tired at times. Hammel will be Hammel. Hendricks is poised to have a career year if he continues to pitch to his spots. Can the rotation turn it around after the Al-Star break? That may be the key to the entire season.
The trade market appears to be a tight one this year. Most teams are still within the realm of a wild card spot. The Yankees are the potential big Seller at the deadline, but ownership seems to have clamped down on making any major moves this year. The Yankees do not want to be perceived as "rebuilding" or quitting on a season. So big relief arms like Miller or Chapman may not be available if ownership thinks the team could have a second half run.
If you asked a Cub fan in spring training would they be happy if the Cubs were 7 games ahead of the Cardinals and Pirates at the All-Star break, they would have said "yes." But it was the roller coaster ride to get to that point that has some fans worried about the team's direction since the tailspin is the most recent turn.
