The Cubs entire infield started the 2016 All-Star game. This year, no one will.
Wade Davis is the sole Cub representative. Kris Bryant may get a bench slot if he is voted in by the fans.
The Cubs are stumbling to the break with a .500 at best record. Totally disappointing. Totally frustrating. Totally unexpected.
Who would have thought that the best Chicago player this season would be Avi Garcia? The White Sox outfielder has blossomed to a .318 BA, 11 HR, 51 RBI, .362 OBP and 2.9 WAR so far this year.
The Cubs are in an odd position, 3.5 games behind the Brewers. Milwaukee is supposed to crumble with the lack of starting pitching and a young team. But the Brew Crew continues to chug along in first place.
Which makes the Cubs decisions harder to make by the trade deadline. Are the Cubs buyers? Sellers? Or will they just stand pat and ride out the season?
It would seem the latter may happen by default.
No team will give up front line starting pitcher(s) without a King's ransom. And the Cubs better trading chips (like Schwarber) have struggled all season.
Look at a position comparison:
Is Russell a better shortstop than Baez? Russell may have slightly better range, but Baez has a better arm. Russell has regressed this season; some say it is his bum shoulder. That makes Baez almost untradeable since he can play three defensive positions.
Is Zobrist a better 2B/OF than Happ? Zobrist was the first Super Sub when Maddon was the Tampa skipper. Zobrist had a massive WAR because of his defensive skill sets. But Zobrist has struggled this season at the plate and with a wrist injury. Happ got called up early because of the offensive stuggles. He has provided some HR potential while he learns to play the outfield on the fly. Since Happ has upside, he suddenly becomes an untradeable asset because of his versatility.
Would any other team take Russell and/or Zobrist in a trade? Perhaps if a contending team had a key starter get hurt. But they will not be willing to pay top dollar for either one.
So the Cubs are stuck with many veteran chips in a depressed market. If there are moves to make, it may be for the shot-in-the-dark AAAA player to shore up the rotation as a spot starter.
Showing posts with label bad teams. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bad teams. Show all posts
July 5, 2017
October 3, 2016
DYSFUNCTIONAL ORGANIZATION
Robin Ventura is not going to manage the White Sox in 2017.
Some may say good riddance. Others may still question the organization which put Ventura, who never managed at any level, in charge of a major league team.
Under Ventura’s leadership, the White Sox went 375-434 (.463) which included a second-place finish in 2012 followed by a fifth-place finish and three fourth-place finishes. The White Sox have now gone eight seasons without making the postseason.
Ricky Renteria, the current bench coach, is presumed to be promoted to manager. He was the short term Cub manager until the Cubs swooped in on Joe Maddon.
Renteria had been a coach in the Padres’ organization since 2003 and was promoted to bench coach in 2011. He left after the 2013 season. Renteria has one year of managing under his belt, leading the Cubs to a 73-89 fifth-place finish in 2014.
The first issue with the Renteria promotion is that it does not change the White Sox culture or structure. Renteria is like Ventura, not a guy will a dynamic personality. The coaching staff will remain pretty much the same - - - which may not motivate the players to play better.
The second issue is that the management of the Sox does not change. There is a conflict between chairman Reinsdorf's desires, President Kenny Williams retooling philosophy and GM Rick Hahn want to rebuild. Ownership wants to win now. The press thought the White Sox "won" the last two off-seasons with their roster moves, but the players woefully underperformed.
Until the management gets on the same page, the team will continue to struggle.
The third issue is why not have a full managerial search? Renteria may be a nice buy, speaks Spanish to Latin players, and a baseball lifer. But is he the right person for this job? In San Diego, his forte was helping develop young players. The White Sox roster is besieged with veterans.
The White Sox strength is that the minor league system is filled with quality pitchers. The weakness of the White Sox is that the minor league system is devoid of hitting talent and positional players. This leads to a muddy middle of the road team in a weak division.
Some may say good riddance. Others may still question the organization which put Ventura, who never managed at any level, in charge of a major league team.
Under Ventura’s leadership, the White Sox went 375-434 (.463) which included a second-place finish in 2012 followed by a fifth-place finish and three fourth-place finishes. The White Sox have now gone eight seasons without making the postseason.
Ricky Renteria, the current bench coach, is presumed to be promoted to manager. He was the short term Cub manager until the Cubs swooped in on Joe Maddon.
Renteria had been a coach in the Padres’ organization since 2003 and was promoted to bench coach in 2011. He left after the 2013 season. Renteria has one year of managing under his belt, leading the Cubs to a 73-89 fifth-place finish in 2014.
The first issue with the Renteria promotion is that it does not change the White Sox culture or structure. Renteria is like Ventura, not a guy will a dynamic personality. The coaching staff will remain pretty much the same - - - which may not motivate the players to play better.
The second issue is that the management of the Sox does not change. There is a conflict between chairman Reinsdorf's desires, President Kenny Williams retooling philosophy and GM Rick Hahn want to rebuild. Ownership wants to win now. The press thought the White Sox "won" the last two off-seasons with their roster moves, but the players woefully underperformed.
Until the management gets on the same page, the team will continue to struggle.
The third issue is why not have a full managerial search? Renteria may be a nice buy, speaks Spanish to Latin players, and a baseball lifer. But is he the right person for this job? In San Diego, his forte was helping develop young players. The White Sox roster is besieged with veterans.
The White Sox strength is that the minor league system is filled with quality pitchers. The weakness of the White Sox is that the minor league system is devoid of hitting talent and positional players. This leads to a muddy middle of the road team in a weak division.
July 11, 2016
AT THE BREAK
The Cubs finished the first "half" of the season with a tight win against the Pirates.
At the All-Star Break, the Cubs are in the first place in the NL Central with a 53-35 record, with a 7 game lead. The lead was built by a torrent 25-6 start, and then nose dive 6-15 finish.
As the season began, the Cubs were comfortable with the top three starters: Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester and newly acquired John Lackey, a big game playoff pitcher. The Cubs hoped that Jason Hammel would rebound and Kyle Hendricks would be a serviceable 5th starter.
The world thought the Cubs would be able to hit with a line up of young and old bangers: Dexter Fowler is an offense minded lead off hitter; Kyle Schwarber has a pure contact swing, rookie of the year Kris Bryant would get better, Anthony Rizzo is always solid and newcomer Ben Zobrist would solidify the infield. The Cubs came out gangbusters to have a historic run differential during the first 30 games.
But Schwarber got hurt in an outfield collision. It was a serious knee injury (of the football type). He is gone for the season. That put the Cubs one lefty bat short. But Zobrist has come through in the clutch and the season streamed along victory lane. But then Fowler hurt his hamstring in June and he has been gone nearly a month. He DH'd on Saturday in South Bend, but did not play on Sunday. He won't play in the All-Star game. His return is indefinite.
The highlights:
Rizzo, .299 BA, 21 HR, 63 RBI
Bryant, .286 BA, 25 HR, 65 RBI
Zobrist, .283 BA, 13 HR, 47 RBI
Fowler, .290 BA, 7 HR, 28 RBI
The concerns:
Montero, .201 BA, 5 HR, 23 RBI
Heyward, .243 BA, 4 H$, 28 RBI
Russell, .237 BA, 11 HR, 51 RBI
People wonder if Russell is going to be a career .235 hitter with a great glove. But others point out that he has 51 RBIs for a shortstop, which is far above average.
Heyward has gotten a lot of grief for his offensive woes, but the catching has been weak hitting until the call up of Willson Contreras (.305 BA, 5 HR, 16 RBI in 83 AB). Maddon was using Contreras like Schwarber, mostly in LF to get his bat into a struggling line up.
It also appears that Maddon has overmanaged more games this season (costing the Cubs a few games such as running out of bench players early). The critics still do not like Maddon playing players outside their natural position, such as Bryant in LF (who bruised his knee colliding with Almora on a play similar to the Schwarber injury incident). But Maddon justifies it by saying having players play multiple positions "extends" his short bench (which it does not because the number of players is the same).
It is hard to say that one player makes a line up purr, but Fowler is the catalyst for the Cubs. His nagging hamstring issue was a major reason for the Cubs first half offense woes. With his return still uncertain, the Cubs will have to rely more heavily on their prospects.
Maddon believes that it is the starting pitching that pilots this team. In the first half of the first half, the Cubs starters sported a combined ERA under 2.70. In the last 10 games, it is more than 5.70. The Cubs have gone 0 for 10 in quality starts in July.
Despite the horrible last starts of most of the starters, their overall records are very good:
Lackey: 7-5, 3.70 ERA, 1.106 WHIP
Arrieta: 12-4, 2.68 ERA, 1.093 WHIP
Lester: 9-4, 3.01 ERA, 1.084 WHIP
Hammel: 7-5, 3.96 ERA, 1.131 WHIP
Hendricks: 7-6, 2.55 ERA, 1.034 WHIP
Opponents have turned the table on the Cubs. Teams are taking more pitches from the starters (including biting sliders bending just out of the strike zone). By taking more pitches, batters are working deeper counts and putting more stress on the starters to be more precise. With a wildly variable umpire strike zone night to night, ultra competitive starters like Lester and Lackey can easily lose their cool and focus. And once they have to throw one into the zone, batters pounce.
That was the formula for the Cubs hot opening streak. Working long counts, getting to the opponent's bullpen early, "earning" walks and putting up big innings. That is how the Cubs became the talk of the league, the juggernaut.
Good teams adapt to changing conditions. Bad teams find excuses instead of solutions. Maddon hinted that the ending 24 straight days without a game break was grueling, but the Cubs only had Adam Warren stretched out for one spot start. Since mid-June, the bullpen has been taxed (especially for those few pitchers Maddon "trusts" in tight situations).
In 88 games, Travis Wood has pitched in 44, Justin Grimm 40, and Pedro Strop 38. Much of the stressful work load has come in the last 6 weeks.So far, Wood has compiled a 0.3 WAR, Grimm a negative 0.3 WAR and Strop a 0.5 WAR. Closer Hector Rondon has only 14 saves (4 blown saves) for a 1.1 WAR.
The consensus is that the Cubs need to go out and acquire bullpen help. Every contender is looking to improve their pens. A few have questioned whether the Cubs need to go out and get another quality starter (a harder task) because Hammel's history of poor second halves. Part of the issue is that the starters have failed to get through 6 IP. There have been no real rest days for the pen in a month. The quality of the bullpen is directly related to the quality starts of the rotation.
Arrieta's mechanics are messed up. Lester is getting squeezed by umpires. Lackey is old and looks tired at times. Hammel will be Hammel. Hendricks is poised to have a career year if he continues to pitch to his spots. Can the rotation turn it around after the Al-Star break? That may be the key to the entire season.
The trade market appears to be a tight one this year. Most teams are still within the realm of a wild card spot. The Yankees are the potential big Seller at the deadline, but ownership seems to have clamped down on making any major moves this year. The Yankees do not want to be perceived as "rebuilding" or quitting on a season. So big relief arms like Miller or Chapman may not be available if ownership thinks the team could have a second half run.
If you asked a Cub fan in spring training would they be happy if the Cubs were 7 games ahead of the Cardinals and Pirates at the All-Star break, they would have said "yes." But it was the roller coaster ride to get to that point that has some fans worried about the team's direction since the tailspin is the most recent turn.
At the All-Star Break, the Cubs are in the first place in the NL Central with a 53-35 record, with a 7 game lead. The lead was built by a torrent 25-6 start, and then nose dive 6-15 finish.
As the season began, the Cubs were comfortable with the top three starters: Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester and newly acquired John Lackey, a big game playoff pitcher. The Cubs hoped that Jason Hammel would rebound and Kyle Hendricks would be a serviceable 5th starter.
The world thought the Cubs would be able to hit with a line up of young and old bangers: Dexter Fowler is an offense minded lead off hitter; Kyle Schwarber has a pure contact swing, rookie of the year Kris Bryant would get better, Anthony Rizzo is always solid and newcomer Ben Zobrist would solidify the infield. The Cubs came out gangbusters to have a historic run differential during the first 30 games.
But Schwarber got hurt in an outfield collision. It was a serious knee injury (of the football type). He is gone for the season. That put the Cubs one lefty bat short. But Zobrist has come through in the clutch and the season streamed along victory lane. But then Fowler hurt his hamstring in June and he has been gone nearly a month. He DH'd on Saturday in South Bend, but did not play on Sunday. He won't play in the All-Star game. His return is indefinite.
The highlights:
Rizzo, .299 BA, 21 HR, 63 RBI
Bryant, .286 BA, 25 HR, 65 RBI
Zobrist, .283 BA, 13 HR, 47 RBI
Fowler, .290 BA, 7 HR, 28 RBI
The concerns:
Montero, .201 BA, 5 HR, 23 RBI
Heyward, .243 BA, 4 H$, 28 RBI
Russell, .237 BA, 11 HR, 51 RBI
People wonder if Russell is going to be a career .235 hitter with a great glove. But others point out that he has 51 RBIs for a shortstop, which is far above average.
Heyward has gotten a lot of grief for his offensive woes, but the catching has been weak hitting until the call up of Willson Contreras (.305 BA, 5 HR, 16 RBI in 83 AB). Maddon was using Contreras like Schwarber, mostly in LF to get his bat into a struggling line up.
It also appears that Maddon has overmanaged more games this season (costing the Cubs a few games such as running out of bench players early). The critics still do not like Maddon playing players outside their natural position, such as Bryant in LF (who bruised his knee colliding with Almora on a play similar to the Schwarber injury incident). But Maddon justifies it by saying having players play multiple positions "extends" his short bench (which it does not because the number of players is the same).
It is hard to say that one player makes a line up purr, but Fowler is the catalyst for the Cubs. His nagging hamstring issue was a major reason for the Cubs first half offense woes. With his return still uncertain, the Cubs will have to rely more heavily on their prospects.
Maddon believes that it is the starting pitching that pilots this team. In the first half of the first half, the Cubs starters sported a combined ERA under 2.70. In the last 10 games, it is more than 5.70. The Cubs have gone 0 for 10 in quality starts in July.
Despite the horrible last starts of most of the starters, their overall records are very good:
Lackey: 7-5, 3.70 ERA, 1.106 WHIP
Arrieta: 12-4, 2.68 ERA, 1.093 WHIP
Lester: 9-4, 3.01 ERA, 1.084 WHIP
Hammel: 7-5, 3.96 ERA, 1.131 WHIP
Hendricks: 7-6, 2.55 ERA, 1.034 WHIP
Opponents have turned the table on the Cubs. Teams are taking more pitches from the starters (including biting sliders bending just out of the strike zone). By taking more pitches, batters are working deeper counts and putting more stress on the starters to be more precise. With a wildly variable umpire strike zone night to night, ultra competitive starters like Lester and Lackey can easily lose their cool and focus. And once they have to throw one into the zone, batters pounce.
That was the formula for the Cubs hot opening streak. Working long counts, getting to the opponent's bullpen early, "earning" walks and putting up big innings. That is how the Cubs became the talk of the league, the juggernaut.
Good teams adapt to changing conditions. Bad teams find excuses instead of solutions. Maddon hinted that the ending 24 straight days without a game break was grueling, but the Cubs only had Adam Warren stretched out for one spot start. Since mid-June, the bullpen has been taxed (especially for those few pitchers Maddon "trusts" in tight situations).
In 88 games, Travis Wood has pitched in 44, Justin Grimm 40, and Pedro Strop 38. Much of the stressful work load has come in the last 6 weeks.So far, Wood has compiled a 0.3 WAR, Grimm a negative 0.3 WAR and Strop a 0.5 WAR. Closer Hector Rondon has only 14 saves (4 blown saves) for a 1.1 WAR.
The consensus is that the Cubs need to go out and acquire bullpen help. Every contender is looking to improve their pens. A few have questioned whether the Cubs need to go out and get another quality starter (a harder task) because Hammel's history of poor second halves. Part of the issue is that the starters have failed to get through 6 IP. There have been no real rest days for the pen in a month. The quality of the bullpen is directly related to the quality starts of the rotation.
Arrieta's mechanics are messed up. Lester is getting squeezed by umpires. Lackey is old and looks tired at times. Hammel will be Hammel. Hendricks is poised to have a career year if he continues to pitch to his spots. Can the rotation turn it around after the Al-Star break? That may be the key to the entire season.
The trade market appears to be a tight one this year. Most teams are still within the realm of a wild card spot. The Yankees are the potential big Seller at the deadline, but ownership seems to have clamped down on making any major moves this year. The Yankees do not want to be perceived as "rebuilding" or quitting on a season. So big relief arms like Miller or Chapman may not be available if ownership thinks the team could have a second half run.
If you asked a Cub fan in spring training would they be happy if the Cubs were 7 games ahead of the Cardinals and Pirates at the All-Star break, they would have said "yes." But it was the roller coaster ride to get to that point that has some fans worried about the team's direction since the tailspin is the most recent turn.
May 26, 2015
FIRST TURN SURPRISES
Memorial Day usually marks the date where teams start to evaluate their seasons. Sportswriters will sharpen their pens to begin to write their updated "buyer" and "seller" trade deadline stories. GMs will begin to see if their teams are over-achieving or under-performing so far this year.
What have been the biggest surprises so far this year?
Tampa Bay in first place in the AL East was something no one saw coming at the end of spring training. It was supposed to be a Boston runaway rebuild and the Yankees sneaking around second.
Kansas City itself believes its last year playoff run was real so it is not a surprise that the Royals are in first place. But the Tigers being in third place is more of a surprise. But not as bad as the White Sox being in last place in the division when on paper Chicago had the best off-season.
Houston is the biggest surprise with best 29 wins and a 5.5 game lead in the AL West.
The Mets hot start was a surprise with its young rotation, but being in second is still better than expected for this underachieving team.
The Cubs being in second place for most of the season is a surprise. Being four games over .500 (24-20) and 4.5 games behind the Cardinals is better than most people expected from the young Cubs.
The biggest downside surprise may be the Padres. An aggressive off-season has yielded a weak fourth place (7 games behind) in the NL West.
Based on these surprises, there may be less "sellers" this year as teams that should not have been so competitive (Rays, Astros, Cubs, Mets) won't be looking to next year.
What have been the biggest surprises so far this year?
Tampa Bay in first place in the AL East was something no one saw coming at the end of spring training. It was supposed to be a Boston runaway rebuild and the Yankees sneaking around second.
Kansas City itself believes its last year playoff run was real so it is not a surprise that the Royals are in first place. But the Tigers being in third place is more of a surprise. But not as bad as the White Sox being in last place in the division when on paper Chicago had the best off-season.
Houston is the biggest surprise with best 29 wins and a 5.5 game lead in the AL West.
The Mets hot start was a surprise with its young rotation, but being in second is still better than expected for this underachieving team.
The Cubs being in second place for most of the season is a surprise. Being four games over .500 (24-20) and 4.5 games behind the Cardinals is better than most people expected from the young Cubs.
The biggest downside surprise may be the Padres. An aggressive off-season has yielded a weak fourth place (7 games behind) in the NL West.
Based on these surprises, there may be less "sellers" this year as teams that should not have been so competitive (Rays, Astros, Cubs, Mets) won't be looking to next year.
May 11, 2015
SIX AND A HALF
The public perception is that the Cubs are doing just fine, even though they are 6.5 games behind the Cardinals.
However, there is panic on the South Side as the White Sox are off to a slow start, a couple of suspensions, and major criticism of its manager, Robin Ventura. The strength of the White Sox, its starting rotation, has faltered (including Chris Sale getting lit up by the lowly Twins) as well as the revamped offense.
But despite all the faults, flaws and losses, the White Sox are also 6.5 games out of first place.
The Cubs are trying to rebuild their bullpen on the fly by bringing back Russell and Grimm. The Cubs have been consistently getting on base and scoring runs, but the bullpen has ballooned to a 7 ERA in the past week. But there is no panic in Wrigleyville. Maddon continues to give the beat reporters his daily quips so everything is ice cream and rainbows.
Meanwhile, the press is looking for hangman's rope for Ventura. But he has a veteran team that should come around as the weather heats up. Carlos Rodon's first start started rocky but smoothed out for his first career victory. It would seem that Rodon will push himself into the Sox rotation earlier than expected as Noesi has an injury.
It is another tale of two teams within one city. The Cubs are getting all the attention since the White Sox have given the press little to cheer. The White Sox have a modern ball park with cheap ticket prices for families but that gets little attention to the Cubs open construction site debris field still draws large crowds.
The perceptions of the teams is completely different. But both teams are basically in the same situation: 6.5 games out of first place.
However, there is panic on the South Side as the White Sox are off to a slow start, a couple of suspensions, and major criticism of its manager, Robin Ventura. The strength of the White Sox, its starting rotation, has faltered (including Chris Sale getting lit up by the lowly Twins) as well as the revamped offense.
But despite all the faults, flaws and losses, the White Sox are also 6.5 games out of first place.
The Cubs are trying to rebuild their bullpen on the fly by bringing back Russell and Grimm. The Cubs have been consistently getting on base and scoring runs, but the bullpen has ballooned to a 7 ERA in the past week. But there is no panic in Wrigleyville. Maddon continues to give the beat reporters his daily quips so everything is ice cream and rainbows.
Meanwhile, the press is looking for hangman's rope for Ventura. But he has a veteran team that should come around as the weather heats up. Carlos Rodon's first start started rocky but smoothed out for his first career victory. It would seem that Rodon will push himself into the Sox rotation earlier than expected as Noesi has an injury.
It is another tale of two teams within one city. The Cubs are getting all the attention since the White Sox have given the press little to cheer. The White Sox have a modern ball park with cheap ticket prices for families but that gets little attention to the Cubs open construction site debris field still draws large crowds.
The perceptions of the teams is completely different. But both teams are basically in the same situation: 6.5 games out of first place.
May 6, 2015
AN OPPOSING VIEW
Cameron says the the pre-season forecasts had the White Sox only going 78-84, with just an 8% chance of winning the AL
Central and a 6% chance of winning one of the two Wild Card spots; the
Rangers and Twins were the only AL teams with a lower chance of reaching
the postseason. There was a scenario where things broke right and the
White Sox became legitimate contenders — the Astros are currently in the
midst of that scenario at the moment — but it was going to require the
team’s role players step up and fill some of the areas where the team
was expected to get replacement level production.
That hasn’t happened.
The projectionists concerns were at catcher, second base, third base, right field, and the last two spots in the rotation. Conor Gillaspie had been adequate at third but lacked power; Tyler Flowers can play adequate defense but was a offensive liability; back end starters John Danks and Hector Noesi were not very good last season; and the team would have to rely upon rookies at second base in Micah Johnson or Carlos Sanchez. So far, all those players have all been below replacement level. That’s just too many voids for a contender, and when guys like LaRoche, Cabrera, and Samardzija struggle too, then you end getting pummeled by a lousy Twins team on your way to an 8-14 record after the season’s first month.
After getting outscored 31-8 in their four game series against Minnesota, there is a great deal of "badness" to pause. By BaseRuns projections, the White Sox should actually be 7-15. The Sox have played worse than any other team in baseball, including the Brewers, the team that just fired their manager. The White Sox aren’t actually the worst team in baseball, but this isn’t a team that has played well and just run into some bad luck, or given up runs at the wrong time; as Cameron writes: they’ve just been straight up awful.
The White Sox are so far behind the Tigers and Royals at this early stage of the season, the White Sox a 2% chance of winning the division and a 3% chance of capturing a Wild Card spot. Thus, the irony of having one of the best off-seasons in baseball has quickly turned to having one of the worst seasons in franchise history.
Cameron opines that the White Sox have roughly 80 games to get back in the race before the trade deadline and if Detroit and Kansas City play at even their modest projected rest-of-season winning percentages, the White Sox would have to play approximately .650 baseball to overtake them by the end of July. That means the White Sox will have to win every series (2 of 3 games) until the All-Star break to make a competitive run in the second half of the season.
Cameron doesn't think the White Sox have to start the fire sale tomorrow. There is still the core of a good team but there are just too many weak spots on the current roster to make a real serious run in 2015.
However, Sox fans will disagree. If one believes that players will eventually get "back to their baseball card numbers" the White Sox pitching staff will rebound. And pitching is still the key to win in the American League Central. Sale, Carlos Quintana and Samardzjia are three quality starters. Robertson is a proven closer. Matt Albers and Nate Jones will come off the DL this summer to bolster the bullpen. Carlos Rodon will get better in the bullpen (he has not been that bad so far). Geo Soto is an upgrade as a back up catcher and could easily move into the starter role over Flowers. Avi Garcia, coming back from an injury last season, could be a steady influence in the middle of the batting order, helping to protect MVP candidate Jose Abreu. Like most NL players, LaRoche is having a tough time adjusting to being a full time DH. A quick fix would be to platoon LaRoche at first base.
The counter position is that the White Sox need not be Sellers, but could actually "buy" one or two pieces to help solidify the club. A starting pitcher and/or a third baseman could all that is necessary to turn things around. But those pieces are hard to come by.
Now, some fans think that the real problem is manager Robin Ventura. The question is whether he is getting the most out of his players. A few have called for his firing, with the Sox rehiring firebrand Ozzie Guillen. Guillen led the Sox to their 2005 championship, which was built on a brilliant four man starting rotation (who threw 4 consecutive complete game victories in the ALCS). But hiring Guillen is not an option for the front office.
So it is too early to write off the White Sox 2015 season. Baseball is a strange game. If the Astros can run off a ten game win streak, so could the White Sox.
That hasn’t happened.
The projectionists concerns were at catcher, second base, third base, right field, and the last two spots in the rotation. Conor Gillaspie had been adequate at third but lacked power; Tyler Flowers can play adequate defense but was a offensive liability; back end starters John Danks and Hector Noesi were not very good last season; and the team would have to rely upon rookies at second base in Micah Johnson or Carlos Sanchez. So far, all those players have all been below replacement level. That’s just too many voids for a contender, and when guys like LaRoche, Cabrera, and Samardzija struggle too, then you end getting pummeled by a lousy Twins team on your way to an 8-14 record after the season’s first month.
After getting outscored 31-8 in their four game series against Minnesota, there is a great deal of "badness" to pause. By BaseRuns projections, the White Sox should actually be 7-15. The Sox have played worse than any other team in baseball, including the Brewers, the team that just fired their manager. The White Sox aren’t actually the worst team in baseball, but this isn’t a team that has played well and just run into some bad luck, or given up runs at the wrong time; as Cameron writes: they’ve just been straight up awful.
The White Sox are so far behind the Tigers and Royals at this early stage of the season, the White Sox a 2% chance of winning the division and a 3% chance of capturing a Wild Card spot. Thus, the irony of having one of the best off-seasons in baseball has quickly turned to having one of the worst seasons in franchise history.
Cameron opines that the White Sox have roughly 80 games to get back in the race before the trade deadline and if Detroit and Kansas City play at even their modest projected rest-of-season winning percentages, the White Sox would have to play approximately .650 baseball to overtake them by the end of July. That means the White Sox will have to win every series (2 of 3 games) until the All-Star break to make a competitive run in the second half of the season.
Cameron doesn't think the White Sox have to start the fire sale tomorrow. There is still the core of a good team but there are just too many weak spots on the current roster to make a real serious run in 2015.
However, Sox fans will disagree. If one believes that players will eventually get "back to their baseball card numbers" the White Sox pitching staff will rebound. And pitching is still the key to win in the American League Central. Sale, Carlos Quintana and Samardzjia are three quality starters. Robertson is a proven closer. Matt Albers and Nate Jones will come off the DL this summer to bolster the bullpen. Carlos Rodon will get better in the bullpen (he has not been that bad so far). Geo Soto is an upgrade as a back up catcher and could easily move into the starter role over Flowers. Avi Garcia, coming back from an injury last season, could be a steady influence in the middle of the batting order, helping to protect MVP candidate Jose Abreu. Like most NL players, LaRoche is having a tough time adjusting to being a full time DH. A quick fix would be to platoon LaRoche at first base.
The counter position is that the White Sox need not be Sellers, but could actually "buy" one or two pieces to help solidify the club. A starting pitcher and/or a third baseman could all that is necessary to turn things around. But those pieces are hard to come by.
Now, some fans think that the real problem is manager Robin Ventura. The question is whether he is getting the most out of his players. A few have called for his firing, with the Sox rehiring firebrand Ozzie Guillen. Guillen led the Sox to their 2005 championship, which was built on a brilliant four man starting rotation (who threw 4 consecutive complete game victories in the ALCS). But hiring Guillen is not an option for the front office.
So it is too early to write off the White Sox 2015 season. Baseball is a strange game. If the Astros can run off a ten game win streak, so could the White Sox.
May 4, 2015
FIRE IN THE HOLE
The old saying is true: it is better to get off to a hot start.
Or get burned.
Or get burned.
The Associated Press reports that the Milwaukee
Brewers fired manager Ron Roenicke on Sunday night, hours after their
5-3 victory over the Cubs in Chicago.
The Brewers are a major league-worst 7-18 (.281 winning percentage) after a 2-13 (.133 winning percentage) start. Even the slow improvement in winning percentage could not keep Roenicke's job. The team said it will announce a replacement today.
"This
has been a difficult start to the season, something that we certainly
didn't anticipate," president and general manager Doug Melvin said in a
statement. "Over roughly the last 100 games, we have not performed at
the level that we should. It's all about wins and losses, and after the
first month of play this year we didn't see the progress and improvement
we had hoped for.
"We
appreciate all that Ron has done for our organization, and he has
handled his duties with great professionalism and dedication. The
reasons for our disappointing start are many, but we determined that
it's in the best interests of the club to make this move."
The
victory Sunday gave the Brewers their first consecutive victories of
the year and first series win. Before this year, the most games
Milwaukee needed for consecutive wins was 18 in 1972, according to
STATS.
In four-plus seasons, the 58-year-old Roenicke was 342-331.
The Brewers slow start included a few injuries, including their starting catcher. However, every team has to deal with injuries.
By comparison, league laughing stock Houston Astros are in first place in the highly competitive AL West. The Astros 18-7 start (.720 winning percentage) shows that if the team merely goes .500 for the rest of the season, the Astros will have an 87 win season (.537 winning percentage) and a possible wild card spot.
The Brewers slow start included a few injuries, including their starting catcher. However, every team has to deal with injuries.
By comparison, league laughing stock Houston Astros are in first place in the highly competitive AL West. The Astros 18-7 start (.720 winning percentage) shows that if the team merely goes .500 for the rest of the season, the Astros will have an 87 win season (.537 winning percentage) and a possible wild card spot.
April 20, 2015
YIPS TO YEESH
From YahooSports.com
Jon Lester has 155 million reasons to be a complete ball player. Throwing the ball to first base is one of them.
And it should be an easy on. It is the same distance from the mound to first base as it is to home plate, where Lester makes his bread and butter.
From the start of youth baseball to the minors, pitchers normally were the "best" baseball players on their teams. They were usually two way starters. They usually had all the tools to play the game. That is why they rode their skill sets to the major leagues as complete players.
Now, one could say that Lester having been in the American League (with its DH), his batting skills could have atrophied - - - which they have done so. But pitchers in the AL still have to play defense, right? There is no designated fielder.
Which brings Lester's previously unknown to Chicago yips into comical snowball effect.
Yesterday, in his third Cub start (all at his new home under construction park) Lester had to toss a come-backer to first but used his entire glove to get the job done. Now, this has happened before but not by a pitcher who has a documented problem of throwing the baseball to first on pick-off moves.
Matt Garza was a terrible fielder. Bunts to third or the mound usually wound up in right field. Teams took advantage of Garza's inability to field his position. It became a long running joke.
Now, Lester seems to have surpassed Garza in the comedy fielding.
Cub fans will groan that this can only happen to them; their "ace" pitcher has a major flaw which will at some point cost us critical games. How hard can it be to throw a baseball to Anthony Rizzo??!
Apparently, for Lester: very.
March 10, 2015
PHIL OF IT
The Phillies are a team that was once built for a major championship run. High payroll. Star veterans.
But in life, nothing is certain.
We knew the Phils would collapse at some point. That point is now.
Ryne Sandberg got the managerial job on the basis he would be good with young players (based on his minor league record). He inherited an aging ball club, with stubborn veterans on the career slide. A total house cleaning is in order.
But the Phils will be hamstruck by two large dead money deals. Ryan Howard and elbow tender Cliff Lee each make $25 million. Fifty million dollars of the payroll is gone to waste.
The Phils have tried to trade Cole Hamels, but the asking price has been outrageously high. The Phils need to trade whatever assets they have in order to get younger, quicker. But the rest of the league does not play ball that way.
Teams tend to keep their top prospects for control and payroll savings purposes. As the top stars continue to elicit hundred million dollar deals, owners need to balance that risk with a deep minor league system.
But you can't always get a winner on draft choice flyers, like the Phils did with Hamels.
The Phils are getting crushed by top prospects flaming out early.
The local media reports that after three minor league seasons, the team's 2011 first-round draft pick will not report to spring training. Larry Greene Jr., 22, the No. 39 overall pick and the selection the Phillies received as compensation for losing Jayson Werth via free agency, has not reported to minor league camp in Clearwater, Fla. and reportedly has retired.
Greene gave up a full-ride to play linebacker for Alabama in order to join the Phillies’ minor league system for a $1 million signing bonus. Out of Nashville, Ga., Greene impressed the Phillies with his raw power and football players’ physique. He hit .562 with 19 homers as a senior at Berrien County High School in Georgia.
He was rated the best power hitter in the Phillies’ system after the 2011 season by Baseball America, but Greene’s hitting fizzled after he left high school. In 70 games for low-A Williamsport in 2012, Greene hit two homers and batted .272 with 78 strikeouts. Those numbers dipped in 2013, when he hit .213 with four homers and 163 strikeouts in 111 games.
Last season Greene slumped even further, batting just .183 with two homers and 60 strikeouts in 60 games for low-A Lakewood.
Meanwhile, Greene isn’t the Phillies only first-round flameout over the last year. Anthony Hewitt, the team’s first-round pick (No. 24 overall) in 2008, was released after playing just 34 games for Double-A Reading last summer.
The No. 27 overall pick, Jesse Biddle, came to camp this season looking to bounce back after a rough second season at Double-A Reading during which he suffered a concussion and went 3-10 with a 5.05 ERA.
The Phillies have a lot of work to do to avoid a 100-loss season in 2015. Adding cast-off veterans like Jordan Danks and Jerome Williams to oft injured veterans like Grady Sizemore or Chase Utley casts a long shadow for this season.
But in life, nothing is certain.
We knew the Phils would collapse at some point. That point is now.
Ryne Sandberg got the managerial job on the basis he would be good with young players (based on his minor league record). He inherited an aging ball club, with stubborn veterans on the career slide. A total house cleaning is in order.
But the Phils will be hamstruck by two large dead money deals. Ryan Howard and elbow tender Cliff Lee each make $25 million. Fifty million dollars of the payroll is gone to waste.
The Phils have tried to trade Cole Hamels, but the asking price has been outrageously high. The Phils need to trade whatever assets they have in order to get younger, quicker. But the rest of the league does not play ball that way.
Teams tend to keep their top prospects for control and payroll savings purposes. As the top stars continue to elicit hundred million dollar deals, owners need to balance that risk with a deep minor league system.
But you can't always get a winner on draft choice flyers, like the Phils did with Hamels.
The Phils are getting crushed by top prospects flaming out early.
The local media reports that after three minor league seasons, the team's 2011 first-round draft pick will not report to spring training. Larry Greene Jr., 22, the No. 39 overall pick and the selection the Phillies received as compensation for losing Jayson Werth via free agency, has not reported to minor league camp in Clearwater, Fla. and reportedly has retired.
Greene gave up a full-ride to play linebacker for Alabama in order to join the Phillies’ minor league system for a $1 million signing bonus. Out of Nashville, Ga., Greene impressed the Phillies with his raw power and football players’ physique. He hit .562 with 19 homers as a senior at Berrien County High School in Georgia.
He was rated the best power hitter in the Phillies’ system after the 2011 season by Baseball America, but Greene’s hitting fizzled after he left high school. In 70 games for low-A Williamsport in 2012, Greene hit two homers and batted .272 with 78 strikeouts. Those numbers dipped in 2013, when he hit .213 with four homers and 163 strikeouts in 111 games.
Last season Greene slumped even further, batting just .183 with two homers and 60 strikeouts in 60 games for low-A Lakewood.
Meanwhile, Greene isn’t the Phillies only first-round flameout over the last year. Anthony Hewitt, the team’s first-round pick (No. 24 overall) in 2008, was released after playing just 34 games for Double-A Reading last summer.
The No. 27 overall pick, Jesse Biddle, came to camp this season looking to bounce back after a rough second season at Double-A Reading during which he suffered a concussion and went 3-10 with a 5.05 ERA.
The Phillies have a lot of work to do to avoid a 100-loss season in 2015. Adding cast-off veterans like Jordan Danks and Jerome Williams to oft injured veterans like Grady Sizemore or Chase Utley casts a long shadow for this season.
October 22, 2014
LOST GENERATIONS
Some researchers use the period of 30 years to define "a generation."
In baseball terms, that means passing the fan torch from parent or grandparent to child.
In all fandom, the purpose to root your team to victory, and enjoy the ultimate success, a World Series championship.
The drought for some teams is staggering:
In baseball terms, that means passing the fan torch from parent or grandparent to child.
In all fandom, the purpose to root your team to victory, and enjoy the ultimate success, a World Series championship.
The drought for some teams is staggering:
| Seasons | Team | Last Won |
|---|---|---|
| 104 | Chicago Cubs | 1908 |
| 64 | Cleveland Indians | 1948 |
| 52 | Texas Rangers | Never (formed 1961) |
| 51 | Houston Astros | Never (formed 1962) |
| 44 | San Diego Padres | Never (formed 1969) |
| 44 | Washington Nationals | Never (formed 1969) |
| 44 | Milwaukee Brewers | Never (formed 1969) |
| 36 | Seattle Mariners | Never (formed 1977) |
| 34 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 1979 |
| 30 | Baltimore Orioles | 1983 |
October 21, 2014
A MANAGERIAL NOTE
Cardinal fans are ripping their manager, Matheny, for losing the NLCS. It was the way he used his pitching staff which was the most damning for fans, especially putting in Wacha, who had not pitched in 20 days, to throw the 9th in a tie game.
Tommy Lasorda once said, "No matter
how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No
matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's
the other third that makes the difference."
Lasorda is probably overstating his case. Statistically, a good manager may actually win only one or two games for his team by his in-game decisions, but a bad manager could lose a team three to five. Since the game is played on the field, the players executing their assigned tasks are the most important aspect of wins and losses. However, there is recognition that a manager needs to put his players in the best position to succeed. Letting a starter who is out of gas continue to pitch, like Dusty Baker did during the Cubs NLCS, led to a demoralizing team collapse.
Lasorda's take on a long season is based on his experience. Every team will lose at least 54 games. Every team will win at least 54 games. So how a team performs in the remaining 54 games is the key to the season. A .500 team only needs to win 27 of those contests. So for a team to be good to competitive, the season really comes down to those last 27 games.
But those last 27 games are not necessarily at the end of season. Those could be critical contests in April, where teams with great starts tend to be front runners throughout the season. It comes down to about 9 three game series. Even if you go .500 in those 27 games, your team would win 94.5 games.
If you have an ace starter going in those 9 big series, the chances are you are more likely to win. If you have another near ace quality starter also pitching those series, you are more likely to take 2 of 3 games. So that takes the equation down to 18 critical games.
Even if a manager is tuned to this statistical dissection, one cannot manage the post-season like the regular season. In the post-season, you must play each game like it is an elimination game. There is much more pressure on the players. A good manager will try to shift the pressure to the other team, by forcing play on the field with base stealing, bunt hits, long at bats to wear down a pitcher. A good manager will also use his pitching staff differently, especially near the end of a series. An ace starter may be a better option from the pen in a game seven than the set-up man. And these decisions are magnified by the situation; and second guessing becomes a blood sport.
So it is not an exact science to determine whether Matheny deserves any of the fan wrath. On the other side, Ned Yost of the Royals had been considered a terrible manager during his career. But his team, despite his reputation, is in the World Series. This is one of the quirks of baseball. You never know.
July 24, 2014
A WORSE TEAM
Whew, the Padres are bad.
A team is last in most offensive categories. The team batting average is hovering around a historic low of .215. There is only one real part time platoon starter in the line-up consistently, Seth Smith.
Smith is batting .285, with 11 HR and only 29 RBI.
The Padres are dead last in the NL in runs scored (291), hits (688), BA (.215), OBP (.274), SLG (.355), OPS (.609) and total bases (1075).
But the Pads are 3rd in the NL West because of pitching.
The Padres rank first in the NL in team ERA (3.18), runs allowed (341) and earned runs allowed (311).
The Padres play in a pitcher friendly ball park, but still, even a below average offense would dramatically improve their 43-56 record (.434 winning percentage).
The difference between runs scored and runs allowed is -50, and over 99 games a half a run per game.
A team is last in most offensive categories. The team batting average is hovering around a historic low of .215. There is only one real part time platoon starter in the line-up consistently, Seth Smith.
Smith is batting .285, with 11 HR and only 29 RBI.
The Padres are dead last in the NL in runs scored (291), hits (688), BA (.215), OBP (.274), SLG (.355), OPS (.609) and total bases (1075).
But the Pads are 3rd in the NL West because of pitching.
The Padres rank first in the NL in team ERA (3.18), runs allowed (341) and earned runs allowed (311).
The Padres play in a pitcher friendly ball park, but still, even a below average offense would dramatically improve their 43-56 record (.434 winning percentage).
The difference between runs scored and runs allowed is -50, and over 99 games a half a run per game.
July 18, 2014
EVEN NUMBERS GUYS CAN'T ADD
The Cubs may be a woeful franchise, but at least they are not the Astros.Yet.
The Astros had the first pick in the draft (again). They made an under slot offer to their selection, high school pitcher Brady Aiken. A deal was inked for $6.5 million, subject to passing a physical. The Astros also had a deal with their 5th round pick, Jacob Nix, for an over-slot deal. The same was rumored with another hard to sign guy, 21st rounder Mac Marshall. The saber-guru plan was to move the slot money around to get three quality prospects for the price of one (and a half).
But the house of cards fell a part when the Astros front office, including sabermetric favorite and new GM Jeff Luhnow, had an issue with an undersized UCL ligament in his throwing elbow. The Astros medical concern was that this abnormality would lead to Tommy John surgery. So the team invoked an "injury" clause in the CBA to offer a 40% of slot deal to Aiken. Aiken and his camp balked, saying he was not injured. That is his natural body, and he throws fine with it. Aiken's advisors cried foul and were claiming the medical studies and opinions were false.
Today's signing deadline passed with MLB.com reporting that the Astros failed to sign Aiken, Nix or Marshall. However, the Astros will receive the No. 2 pick in next year’s draft because the team Houston did at least offer Aiken 40 percent of his slot value ($3,168,840), which Aiken did not accept.
Obviously, losing three players will set back the Astros rebuilding plan. The Astros have been tanking for years to get back to back Number One picks to boost their core young talent. New owner Jim Crane has slashed the payroll to pitiful levels (according the players association). And the Astros new local cable deal has been a financial disaster.
All the elements of a disaster movie have come to roost in Houston. Smart number crunching looking for loopholes to juice the system sometimes themselves get squeezed out of the action. As the Astros start to bring up good prospects like George Springer, then are other "great" prospects like pitcher Mark Appel crashing in Class A.
And this story is why Cubs fans have to be cautious about their expectations. The Cubs front office is following the Astro path more than the Boston Way.
But the house of cards fell a part when the Astros front office, including sabermetric favorite and new GM Jeff Luhnow, had an issue with an undersized UCL ligament in his throwing elbow. The Astros medical concern was that this abnormality would lead to Tommy John surgery. So the team invoked an "injury" clause in the CBA to offer a 40% of slot deal to Aiken. Aiken and his camp balked, saying he was not injured. That is his natural body, and he throws fine with it. Aiken's advisors cried foul and were claiming the medical studies and opinions were false.
Today's signing deadline passed with MLB.com reporting that the Astros failed to sign Aiken, Nix or Marshall. However, the Astros will receive the No. 2 pick in next year’s draft because the team Houston did at least offer Aiken 40 percent of his slot value ($3,168,840), which Aiken did not accept.
Obviously, losing three players will set back the Astros rebuilding plan. The Astros have been tanking for years to get back to back Number One picks to boost their core young talent. New owner Jim Crane has slashed the payroll to pitiful levels (according the players association). And the Astros new local cable deal has been a financial disaster.
All the elements of a disaster movie have come to roost in Houston. Smart number crunching looking for loopholes to juice the system sometimes themselves get squeezed out of the action. As the Astros start to bring up good prospects like George Springer, then are other "great" prospects like pitcher Mark Appel crashing in Class A.
And this story is why Cubs fans have to be cautious about their expectations. The Cubs front office is following the Astro path more than the Boston Way.
May 13, 2014
BAD MILESTONE
The Cubs passed another dubious milestone.
The franchise has lost its 10,000th game.
It becomes the third franchise to pass that losing mark (the Phillies and Braves are the other two clubs).
With its 44 Hall of Famers, the Cubs surprisingly still hold a franchise winning percentage of .511. But we all know, the Cubs have not won it all in more than a century.
The Cubs have settled in to .333 baseball. That is about replacement player level (AAA). That is also not surprising due to the make-up of the squad and the multiple platooning being done by manager Renteria.
The Cubs have been digging themselves quite the large hole trying to find "bottom." The hole was a means of obtaining high draft picks in order to re-stock the farm system. In construction, you need to dig deep holes to have a sturdy foundation.
But how interesting is it to watch someone dig a hole? Perhaps it is slightly more interesting than watching paint dry.
The Cubs are on pace to lose 108 games, or in a parlance of the day, be "Astro bad."
It is not an honorable honor.
But I think this Deep Dig Project may have more lasting effects. The team is so bad for so long it will affect future free agents from signing with the Cubs. The team's constant losing will wear on veteran players who will want to get out of town like Matt Garza. The team's constant losing becomes the culture of the clubhouse and will affect young players who may never learn how to win. They may get lulled into becoming the next generation of lovable losers. Except, this time the love is not showing up to the ball park. There are die hard fan sites contemplating doing dark because the Cubs are unwatchable, and the "prospect watch" stories are now merely collective white noise.
It is not the loss milestone that is the headline here; it is the sinking ship on Lake Michigan that may not be salvageable when the prospects row out into the choppy waters.
The franchise has lost its 10,000th game.
It becomes the third franchise to pass that losing mark (the Phillies and Braves are the other two clubs).
With its 44 Hall of Famers, the Cubs surprisingly still hold a franchise winning percentage of .511. But we all know, the Cubs have not won it all in more than a century.
The Cubs have settled in to .333 baseball. That is about replacement player level (AAA). That is also not surprising due to the make-up of the squad and the multiple platooning being done by manager Renteria.
The Cubs have been digging themselves quite the large hole trying to find "bottom." The hole was a means of obtaining high draft picks in order to re-stock the farm system. In construction, you need to dig deep holes to have a sturdy foundation.
But how interesting is it to watch someone dig a hole? Perhaps it is slightly more interesting than watching paint dry.
The Cubs are on pace to lose 108 games, or in a parlance of the day, be "Astro bad."
It is not an honorable honor.
But I think this Deep Dig Project may have more lasting effects. The team is so bad for so long it will affect future free agents from signing with the Cubs. The team's constant losing will wear on veteran players who will want to get out of town like Matt Garza. The team's constant losing becomes the culture of the clubhouse and will affect young players who may never learn how to win. They may get lulled into becoming the next generation of lovable losers. Except, this time the love is not showing up to the ball park. There are die hard fan sites contemplating doing dark because the Cubs are unwatchable, and the "prospect watch" stories are now merely collective white noise.
It is not the loss milestone that is the headline here; it is the sinking ship on Lake Michigan that may not be salvageable when the prospects row out into the choppy waters.
May 8, 2014
CROSSTOWN
There was as much sizzle for the Cubs-Sox Crosstown Classic as a sidewalk dog turd in the middle of a February blizzard.
Both teams are coming off horrible 2013 campaigns.
And this year has not been too kind. One team has lost two starting pitchers, their third baseman, their second baseman, their right fielder and center fielder to injuries. The bullpen started off in a mess. But this White Sox team is still light years ahead of the Cubs.
The Cubs front office duo of Epstein and Hoyer have been in their positions longer than White Sox GM Hahn. Yes, Hahn was an assistant under Kenny Williams, so the White Sox management "team" is still together. But from all reports, Hahn is making the baseball calls.
He pulled outfielder Moises Sierra off the waiver wire last week when Avisail Garcia went down with a season ending injury. Sierra took to Cub pitching like a fish to water: he is 5 for 9 (.556 BA). A career minor league pitcher, Scott Carroll, is called up and makes two quality starts (1-1, 0.68 ERA and 1.05 WHIP).
And the Cubs have struggling Mike Olt.
And Darwin Barney who in the field is looking like a lost little leaguer.
This is a tale of two different baseball team philosophies.
The White Sox have to win in order to draw fan support. The Sox do not have the financial resources of the Cubs, but the team does not have the time to do a "rebuild." Instead, the Sox went out and traded and signed international free agents like Jose Abreu. Some call the roster turnover as "re-tooling" than rebuilding.
On the other side of town, the Cubs allegedly had the money to "re-tool" but stubbornly want to stay bad in order to re-stock the minor league system with high draft picks and Latin American teenagers.
The White Sox, even with their player injuries, are built to compete in 2014 while the Cubs are a complete journeyman AAAA team which as settled in to the bottom.
Both teams are coming off horrible 2013 campaigns.
And this year has not been too kind. One team has lost two starting pitchers, their third baseman, their second baseman, their right fielder and center fielder to injuries. The bullpen started off in a mess. But this White Sox team is still light years ahead of the Cubs.
The Cubs front office duo of Epstein and Hoyer have been in their positions longer than White Sox GM Hahn. Yes, Hahn was an assistant under Kenny Williams, so the White Sox management "team" is still together. But from all reports, Hahn is making the baseball calls.
He pulled outfielder Moises Sierra off the waiver wire last week when Avisail Garcia went down with a season ending injury. Sierra took to Cub pitching like a fish to water: he is 5 for 9 (.556 BA). A career minor league pitcher, Scott Carroll, is called up and makes two quality starts (1-1, 0.68 ERA and 1.05 WHIP).
And the Cubs have struggling Mike Olt.
And Darwin Barney who in the field is looking like a lost little leaguer.
This is a tale of two different baseball team philosophies.
The White Sox have to win in order to draw fan support. The Sox do not have the financial resources of the Cubs, but the team does not have the time to do a "rebuild." Instead, the Sox went out and traded and signed international free agents like Jose Abreu. Some call the roster turnover as "re-tooling" than rebuilding.
On the other side of town, the Cubs allegedly had the money to "re-tool" but stubbornly want to stay bad in order to re-stock the minor league system with high draft picks and Latin American teenagers.
The White Sox, even with their player injuries, are built to compete in 2014 while the Cubs are a complete journeyman AAAA team which as settled in to the bottom.
April 17, 2014
FANS
By its very definition, "fans" is a personal opinion on one's own state of something or someone. Early in this Cubs season, the fan community has started to snark at each other on what it is to be a Cub fan. It is hard to debate conflicting religious tenets, but even for those who believe baseball is their personal savior, one must respect each other's views.
However, there are various aspects of being a baseball and a Cubs fan.
First, you may be just a fan of the game itself. You don't have a rooting interest in any one team or any one player. You watch a baseball contest for its purity. You just want to see a well played but exciting game.
Or, you may be a fan of the team like the Cubs. You may have been indoctrinated as a fan at an early age when a parent or grandparent took you to your first contest at Wrigley Field. You may have marveled at the miracle of a vast green park inside some brick walls of an old building in a tired city residential neighborhood. The game was faster, the players bigger and plays more exciting than the sandlot games back home. Your parent would have told you about the players, what to look for, and the history of the game and the team. And once you liked baseball as a sport, it is easier to follow it by following "your" team.
There are various levels of devotion. A fan may like the players on the team, but dislike their manager. Fans may like the team and the manager, but dislike or mistrust management. Or, the fans may have outright contempt for ownership like many Yankee fans had during the George Steinbrenner era or when Charlie Finley owned the Oakland A's. Then, there were some fans who liked their owner better than the team itself, such as many years when Bill Veeck owned the White Sox. Then, there were times when the fans did not like the players on their team such as when late in the Dusty Baker days, his players started to assault the respected team broadcasters. A fan can oscillate between the various plus and minuses of the entire organizational spectrum. Some fans may hold a grudge against management for not hiring a guy like Ryne Sandberg to manager their club. Some fans may hold a grudge against a manager for benching their favorite player. Some fans may head slap themselves after each odd managerial decision that cost the team a victory.
And of course there will be fans who will remain die-hard fans through the good, the bad and the ugly.
The 2014 Cubs bring out a range of emotions in the fandom. For some, the
Cubs continue to be their beautiful baseball mistress who is having a
serious bout of projectile vomiting. She will get over it some day. Some believe that that the team makeover is trying to put make-up on an old 500 pound sow. It won't work. Some find dark humor in the badness of team play. The players can find work if keystone comedies ever make a come back. Others think that this is a long incubation process that will work in the near future. The same was said in the original Jurassic Park movie. That turned out well, if you were a meat eating dinosaur. A few think the Ricketts are way over their heads; they don't know how to run a baseball team let alone a business in the city. The new ownership may set back the franchise like P.K. Wrigley did - - - extending the non-championship for several more generations. The current roster may be filled with nice guys, but nice guys in life most often finish last. And who is to blame for that? A little bit for everyone associated with the team, including the fans.
If the fans view their baseball team as a civic icon, then the fans should demand better of their players and ownership. If owners truly believe in winning (and not the mere marketing words to sell expensive tickets), then owners should demand better accountability from their employees, from management to the players. It seems obvious that all three elements of the baseball pyramid want the same thing: to win. Owners, managers, players and fans all want to win the World Series. In Chicago, we know how nice that accomplishment feels when the White Sox won in 2005 (going a remarkable 11-1 in the playoffs).
So it not really fair to tell a fan he is not "supportive" enough of the current Cubs. Likewise, it is not unfair to say that the current Cubs have not earned the trust and money of loyal patrons. The sniping between Cub fans at the early stage of this season does not seem productive; it is just another in a long line of distractions which gets us from the true issue confronting everyone: winning games.
In order to keep one's sanity this year, you may be just a fan of the game itself. You don't have a vested interest in the Cubs or its players. You watch a baseball games for the good plays, the bad plays, the comedy of errors and the occasional win. At the very least, you may just want to see a well played game played by some team on the field. Or something unusual like Monday's game in Denver where the Reds and Rockies hit 10 home runs in 6 innings before the game was suspended due to bad weather. If you don't find some alternative pleasure from just rooting for the Cubs to win, you may end up wasting another summer.
However, there are various aspects of being a baseball and a Cubs fan.
First, you may be just a fan of the game itself. You don't have a rooting interest in any one team or any one player. You watch a baseball contest for its purity. You just want to see a well played but exciting game.
Or, you may be a fan of the team like the Cubs. You may have been indoctrinated as a fan at an early age when a parent or grandparent took you to your first contest at Wrigley Field. You may have marveled at the miracle of a vast green park inside some brick walls of an old building in a tired city residential neighborhood. The game was faster, the players bigger and plays more exciting than the sandlot games back home. Your parent would have told you about the players, what to look for, and the history of the game and the team. And once you liked baseball as a sport, it is easier to follow it by following "your" team.
There are various levels of devotion. A fan may like the players on the team, but dislike their manager. Fans may like the team and the manager, but dislike or mistrust management. Or, the fans may have outright contempt for ownership like many Yankee fans had during the George Steinbrenner era or when Charlie Finley owned the Oakland A's. Then, there were some fans who liked their owner better than the team itself, such as many years when Bill Veeck owned the White Sox. Then, there were times when the fans did not like the players on their team such as when late in the Dusty Baker days, his players started to assault the respected team broadcasters. A fan can oscillate between the various plus and minuses of the entire organizational spectrum. Some fans may hold a grudge against management for not hiring a guy like Ryne Sandberg to manager their club. Some fans may hold a grudge against a manager for benching their favorite player. Some fans may head slap themselves after each odd managerial decision that cost the team a victory.
And of course there will be fans who will remain die-hard fans through the good, the bad and the ugly.
If the fans view their baseball team as a civic icon, then the fans should demand better of their players and ownership. If owners truly believe in winning (and not the mere marketing words to sell expensive tickets), then owners should demand better accountability from their employees, from management to the players. It seems obvious that all three elements of the baseball pyramid want the same thing: to win. Owners, managers, players and fans all want to win the World Series. In Chicago, we know how nice that accomplishment feels when the White Sox won in 2005 (going a remarkable 11-1 in the playoffs).
So it not really fair to tell a fan he is not "supportive" enough of the current Cubs. Likewise, it is not unfair to say that the current Cubs have not earned the trust and money of loyal patrons. The sniping between Cub fans at the early stage of this season does not seem productive; it is just another in a long line of distractions which gets us from the true issue confronting everyone: winning games.
In order to keep one's sanity this year, you may be just a fan of the game itself. You don't have a vested interest in the Cubs or its players. You watch a baseball games for the good plays, the bad plays, the comedy of errors and the occasional win. At the very least, you may just want to see a well played game played by some team on the field. Or something unusual like Monday's game in Denver where the Reds and Rockies hit 10 home runs in 6 innings before the game was suspended due to bad weather. If you don't find some alternative pleasure from just rooting for the Cubs to win, you may end up wasting another summer.
November 20, 2013
FANS
Who are Cub fans?
There are many traits.
They are extremely loyal.
They are extremely forgiving.
They are extremely patient.
They are very supportive.
They are very knowledgeable about baseball.
They are also depressed.
They are worn down.
They are ridiculed by other team fans.
They are abused by the longest championship losing streak in modern sports.
They are Charlie Brown.
There is some evidence that teams do mirror their fan base. The Cubs have had a series of bad teams that parallel the Charlie Brown Nine, a bunch of scrappy but baseball losers.
Why have Cub fans been in this status quo for generations?
Cub fans feel for the underdog because perhaps in their own lives they see themselves as the underdog. It is a heroic story when the underdog prevails against the evil empires that throw up road blocks to success (i.e. Cardinals).
Cub fans are also hard working folk. They like scrappy players who give 100 percent when they are really not very good players. That is why players such as Ryan Theriot and Darwin Barney are fan favorites, not for their skills or stat lines, but on how they played their game.
The idea of losing has become a habit; a way of life. The expectations were whittled down since 1945, even though families continued to come to Wrigley Field to root on their team. If there is such thing as mental viruses, families have indoctrinated their children to become Cub fans.
Cub fans understand life lessons such as "winning is not everything; it is how you play the game." the idea of sportsmanship, hard work, fair play are part of the Cub fan culture.
While other fan bases demand their teams win, such as the Yankees or Dodgers, the Cubs give their fans what they want: a pleasant throw back to the game as it used to be played, in the sunshine in a parkland setting.
But once the Tribune gave up its ownership of the team, some fans began to expect more from the Cubs. A couple of playoff seasons gave fans new expectations. But those quickly faded with early exists from the playoffs. It was like the line drive that blisters past Charlie Brown, knocking off his socks in route to winning the game for Brown's opponent.
This off-season Cubs management is trying to play off fan traits such as loyalty and patience in order to keep them loyal and supportive fans. There is no automatic renewal of ticket purchases. The team is finding itself having to market the team to fans to keep them coming to Wrigley and paying premium prices.
Cub fans have lost some of their childhood innocence. They want more from their team but expect at some deep level the same old stagnation. They are conflicted; they are at a cross roads. The old Conestoga bandwagon is falling a part. But there are still plenty of riders on board, but it will continue to be slow going into the future.
There are many traits.
They are extremely loyal.
They are extremely forgiving.
They are extremely patient.
They are very supportive.
They are very knowledgeable about baseball.
They are also depressed.
They are worn down.
They are ridiculed by other team fans.
They are abused by the longest championship losing streak in modern sports.
They are Charlie Brown.
Why have Cub fans been in this status quo for generations?
Cub fans feel for the underdog because perhaps in their own lives they see themselves as the underdog. It is a heroic story when the underdog prevails against the evil empires that throw up road blocks to success (i.e. Cardinals).
Cub fans are also hard working folk. They like scrappy players who give 100 percent when they are really not very good players. That is why players such as Ryan Theriot and Darwin Barney are fan favorites, not for their skills or stat lines, but on how they played their game.
The idea of losing has become a habit; a way of life. The expectations were whittled down since 1945, even though families continued to come to Wrigley Field to root on their team. If there is such thing as mental viruses, families have indoctrinated their children to become Cub fans.
Cub fans understand life lessons such as "winning is not everything; it is how you play the game." the idea of sportsmanship, hard work, fair play are part of the Cub fan culture.
While other fan bases demand their teams win, such as the Yankees or Dodgers, the Cubs give their fans what they want: a pleasant throw back to the game as it used to be played, in the sunshine in a parkland setting.
But once the Tribune gave up its ownership of the team, some fans began to expect more from the Cubs. A couple of playoff seasons gave fans new expectations. But those quickly faded with early exists from the playoffs. It was like the line drive that blisters past Charlie Brown, knocking off his socks in route to winning the game for Brown's opponent.
This off-season Cubs management is trying to play off fan traits such as loyalty and patience in order to keep them loyal and supportive fans. There is no automatic renewal of ticket purchases. The team is finding itself having to market the team to fans to keep them coming to Wrigley and paying premium prices.
Cub fans have lost some of their childhood innocence. They want more from their team but expect at some deep level the same old stagnation. They are conflicted; they are at a cross roads. The old Conestoga bandwagon is falling a part. But there are still plenty of riders on board, but it will continue to be slow going into the future.
October 26, 2013
EXPANSION
The Red Sox went from a disastrous implosion to the World Series in a year. The team did so not by rebuilding but re-tooling its existing roster to fill in the needs in order to be competitive. It worked.
The Cubs have decided to blow up the entire organization and start from scratch. The major league roster has been filled with AAA players because in reality, any waiver wire move means that claimed player is valued or ranked 1,200 or higher (30 teams times 40 man protected rosters). The Cubs have been running their organization like an expansion team. So how long did it take the last four expansion teams to find success?
In 1969, Montreal Expos were awarded a franchise. Throughout its history, it has garnered only 2 playoff appearances. It's first winning season happened in 1980 (90-72). That was 13 years after it started the franchise. It's first playoff appearance happened in the strike shortened 1981 season, losing in the NLCS. It took another 20 years for the team, now the Nationals, to reach the playoffs in 2012.
In 1993, Miami was awarded a franchise. Throughout its history, it has 2 World Series championships, 2 pennants in 2 playoff appearances. It's first winning season happened after 5 years in 1997 (92-70) and a championship. The next WS championship happened in 2003, 11 years after its initial charter.
In 1998, Tampa came into the league. Throughout its history, it has 1 pennant and 3 playoff appearances. It's first winning season came after 11 years in 2008 (97-65) when they lost in the World Series.
Also in 1998, Arizona came into the league. In its history, it has 1 World Series championship, 1 pennant and 5 playoff appearances. It's first winning season came in year 2 (100-62), losing in the LDS. In year 4 of existence, the Diamondbacks won the World Series in 2001.
If we take these examples, we find that it takes a modern expansion team 7.75 years to obtain a winning record and approximately 8 years to make the playoffs.
The Cubs have completed only year 2 of the rebuild with little prospects of improvement in 2014. Taking the past as a guide to the future, the Cubs will need at least 5 more years of rebuilding to become a competitive/playoff team. That projects to 2018 which is beyond the prior guesses from local media pundits. That is long time to wait.
If the Cubs current 10 percent decline in annual attendance continues during this long rebuild process, it is estimated that by the time 2018 rolls around, attendance would be down 876,000 patrons to about 1.535 million. Attendance is a key barometer of fan support. The pure expansion team model can lead to tough times at the box office and further constrict payroll when the time comes to "fill in the gaps" during free agency.
The Cubs have decided to blow up the entire organization and start from scratch. The major league roster has been filled with AAA players because in reality, any waiver wire move means that claimed player is valued or ranked 1,200 or higher (30 teams times 40 man protected rosters). The Cubs have been running their organization like an expansion team. So how long did it take the last four expansion teams to find success?
In 1969, Montreal Expos were awarded a franchise. Throughout its history, it has garnered only 2 playoff appearances. It's first winning season happened in 1980 (90-72). That was 13 years after it started the franchise. It's first playoff appearance happened in the strike shortened 1981 season, losing in the NLCS. It took another 20 years for the team, now the Nationals, to reach the playoffs in 2012.
In 1993, Miami was awarded a franchise. Throughout its history, it has 2 World Series championships, 2 pennants in 2 playoff appearances. It's first winning season happened after 5 years in 1997 (92-70) and a championship. The next WS championship happened in 2003, 11 years after its initial charter.
In 1998, Tampa came into the league. Throughout its history, it has 1 pennant and 3 playoff appearances. It's first winning season came after 11 years in 2008 (97-65) when they lost in the World Series.
Also in 1998, Arizona came into the league. In its history, it has 1 World Series championship, 1 pennant and 5 playoff appearances. It's first winning season came in year 2 (100-62), losing in the LDS. In year 4 of existence, the Diamondbacks won the World Series in 2001.
If we take these examples, we find that it takes a modern expansion team 7.75 years to obtain a winning record and approximately 8 years to make the playoffs.
The Cubs have completed only year 2 of the rebuild with little prospects of improvement in 2014. Taking the past as a guide to the future, the Cubs will need at least 5 more years of rebuilding to become a competitive/playoff team. That projects to 2018 which is beyond the prior guesses from local media pundits. That is long time to wait.
If the Cubs current 10 percent decline in annual attendance continues during this long rebuild process, it is estimated that by the time 2018 rolls around, attendance would be down 876,000 patrons to about 1.535 million. Attendance is a key barometer of fan support. The pure expansion team model can lead to tough times at the box office and further constrict payroll when the time comes to "fill in the gaps" during free agency.
October 1, 2013
CITY LOSS RECORD
The Cubs and White Sox crushed Chicago's worst baseball season ever.
Chicago teams combined for 195 losses this season - - - the most in Chicago baseball history. The previous record number of losses was 191 in 1948, during a 154-game season.
However, a city with 195 baseball losses ranks only 17th in baseball history. Philadelphia still holds the record at 208.
It is still mindboggling that the White Sox would dump 99 losses after being in contention for most of the 2012 season. And the Cubs also slightly improved to reach the 96 loss mark.
White Sox GM Hahn said there will be changes in 2014. There has to be; the Sox only draw if they win. The White Sox are a small market team playing in a big city, in the shadows of the more popular Cubs.
But the popularity of the Cubs is starting to wane. 2013 was the 5th consecutive season of declining attendance on the North Side.
Now, the realization that the Cubs "Plan" was to lose for several seasons in order to build up the farm system with high draft choices, may be the accelerator on the declining attendance trend. Many fans gave up watching games on television because who really wants to invest three hours knowing that your team only has a one in three chance of winning the game. The whole idea for cheering your team is to see them "win."
And next season may just be as bad. Starlin Castro said after the last game it may take two or three more years before the Cubs are competitive. That puts the time line out to 2016. And the White Sox are terrible on offense and in the field, but have no consensus stars in AAA to fill the gaps at 3B, SS, 2B, 1B or C.
The early off-season will be the axe watch to see which players, managers or coaches get cut to appease ownership or the fan base.
Chicago teams combined for 195 losses this season - - - the most in Chicago baseball history. The previous record number of losses was 191 in 1948, during a 154-game season.
However, a city with 195 baseball losses ranks only 17th in baseball history. Philadelphia still holds the record at 208.
It is still mindboggling that the White Sox would dump 99 losses after being in contention for most of the 2012 season. And the Cubs also slightly improved to reach the 96 loss mark.
White Sox GM Hahn said there will be changes in 2014. There has to be; the Sox only draw if they win. The White Sox are a small market team playing in a big city, in the shadows of the more popular Cubs.
But the popularity of the Cubs is starting to wane. 2013 was the 5th consecutive season of declining attendance on the North Side.
Now, the realization that the Cubs "Plan" was to lose for several seasons in order to build up the farm system with high draft choices, may be the accelerator on the declining attendance trend. Many fans gave up watching games on television because who really wants to invest three hours knowing that your team only has a one in three chance of winning the game. The whole idea for cheering your team is to see them "win."
And next season may just be as bad. Starlin Castro said after the last game it may take two or three more years before the Cubs are competitive. That puts the time line out to 2016. And the White Sox are terrible on offense and in the field, but have no consensus stars in AAA to fill the gaps at 3B, SS, 2B, 1B or C.
The early off-season will be the axe watch to see which players, managers or coaches get cut to appease ownership or the fan base.
September 17, 2013
DARN SOX
The White Sox have the dubious misfortune of being beaten in all 12 games this year by the Cleveland Indians. The last four game sweep pushed the Indians within 1/2 game of the Wild Card.
The White Sox have the third worst record in baseball.
They have a young pitching staff (all born in the 1980s) in Sale, Quintana, Danks, Santiago, Jones, Axlerod and Reed. They have a young corps of left handed pitching.
For a team in contention for most of last season, 2013 is a bitter disappointment.
There were several black holes:
1. Catching. When Pierzynski left, the catching duties fell to Tyler Flowers, who fumbled his opportunity. Late season call up Jason Phegley has not done much better.
2. Adam Dunn. Dunn returned to his awful form. Yes he can hit HRs, but can't do anything else including getting on base. He played more infield this year with Konerko's injuries. Konerko is a free agent who will free up $13 million in payroll. But Dunn will be in his last year next season at $15 million.
3. Infield doldrums. Gordon Beckham got hurt early in the season, and since his return continues to struggle at the plate. Alexi Ramirez has had his worst year at the plate and in the field. And third base continues to be an open vacancy.
4. The outfield wash. Dayan Viciedo is the enigma. He was supposed to be the replacement for Carlos Quinten's production, but Viciedo has never come close to that consistency. The team traded their best outfielder in Alex Rios. They acquired a young Detroit outfielder in Avi Garcia. Alejandro De Aza has been the most consistent outfielder on the team, hitting.261, 15 HR, 58 RBIs.
It is apparent that the White Sox will have to trade some of their golden left handed pitchers in order to acquire major league ready position players.Most of the White Sox The minor leagues are pretty barren. Top 10 prospects are in AA or below. Shortstop Marcus Siemens may get a long look at short stop next spring.
The White Sox have the third worst record in baseball.
They have a young pitching staff (all born in the 1980s) in Sale, Quintana, Danks, Santiago, Jones, Axlerod and Reed. They have a young corps of left handed pitching.
For a team in contention for most of last season, 2013 is a bitter disappointment.
There were several black holes:
1. Catching. When Pierzynski left, the catching duties fell to Tyler Flowers, who fumbled his opportunity. Late season call up Jason Phegley has not done much better.
2. Adam Dunn. Dunn returned to his awful form. Yes he can hit HRs, but can't do anything else including getting on base. He played more infield this year with Konerko's injuries. Konerko is a free agent who will free up $13 million in payroll. But Dunn will be in his last year next season at $15 million.
3. Infield doldrums. Gordon Beckham got hurt early in the season, and since his return continues to struggle at the plate. Alexi Ramirez has had his worst year at the plate and in the field. And third base continues to be an open vacancy.
4. The outfield wash. Dayan Viciedo is the enigma. He was supposed to be the replacement for Carlos Quinten's production, but Viciedo has never come close to that consistency. The team traded their best outfielder in Alex Rios. They acquired a young Detroit outfielder in Avi Garcia. Alejandro De Aza has been the most consistent outfielder on the team, hitting.261, 15 HR, 58 RBIs.
It is apparent that the White Sox will have to trade some of their golden left handed pitchers in order to acquire major league ready position players.Most of the White Sox The minor leagues are pretty barren. Top 10 prospects are in AA or below. Shortstop Marcus Siemens may get a long look at short stop next spring.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)