I was sitting in a bar talking to friends. The Mets-Giants game was on in the background. A nervous Cub fan wanted the Mets to win the wild card so it would be easier for the Cubs in the NLDS.
The Mets have lost two starters to the DL.
The Giants have playoff demigod, Madison Bumgarner.
So when an ex-White Sox player hits a 3 run HR in the top of the 9th in a scoreless pitchers duel, the anxiety of a Cub fan begins to emerge.
However, being the voice of calming reason, I said "it does not matter who the Cubs play. The Cubs are going to steamroll to the championship."
Last year's playoff run was unexpected. I went along for the ride.
This year's playoff run was expected. The team did not have any significant pitching injuries. The team has balanced veteran presence and young players maturing into All-Stars. This year I expect a championship. And so do the Cub players.
Jake Arrieta should have a massive mean chip on his shoulder when he squares off against Bumgarner in Game 2 in SF.
John Lackey will follow Arrieta with his own brand of teeth grinding contempt.
The Cubs won the season series 4-3. The Giants have an uncanny ability to play better than their roster on paper.
There are few analysts who believe that due to the playoff format, the Cubs are at a disadvantage in the NLDS. They believe the long layoff of five days is a major rust factor for the Cubs, the #1 seed. Second, the wild card victor has momentum on their side. Third, the best of five series favors the visiting team if they can take one of the first two games on the road. The pressure is on the home team Cubs to sweep the first two games.
But the series will come down to starting pitching match-ups.
Cueto vs. Lester is probably a draw.
Moore vs. Hendricks is advantage Cubs.
Bumgarner vs. Arrieta would be a toss up if Jake shows up as the 2015 Arrieta.
Samardzija vs. Lackey is advantage Cubs if Lackey can throw strikes and not be squeezed by the home plate umpire.
The Cubs have a 75 percent chance to win the NLDS. One would expect a 3-1 series win.
