The news broke early this morning that should have the Cubs front office changing everything they planned for this off-season.
Yahoo Sports quotes a Miami-based host for SiriusXM who has been all over the Giancarlo Stanton story, reported that the reigning NL MVP will not approve a trade to either the Giants or the Cardinals. Stanton has a full no-trade clause in his 13-year, $325 million deal with the Marlins so he has all the leverage on where he will go. He is under contract control through the 2020 season.
Furthermore, the report says Stanton "would" accept a trade to four teams and they’re the four teams that were in the ALCS and NLCS: the Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs and Astros.
Clearly, Stanton wants to win NOW.
What the Cubs need to do is make a strong pitch for Stanton NOW.
Here is the argument for a blockbuster trade for Stanton I made on August 16, 2017:
1. He is young.
2. He is proven hitter.
3. He immediately makes any lackluster batting order better.
4. He is under long term control.
And his contract is such that if the market in 2020 is $30 million per year (Harper potential deal, now probably more than that figure), then he will opt out - - - and the team acquiring him by trade now is only out $77 million.
For the Marlins to take the PR hit to trade their star player, Miami will need to get a substantial return for Stanton: cheap controllable major league players and top prospects.
In the current situation, the Cubs may not have enough assets to acquire Stanton, who would be the perfect solution to the left field platoon situation.
The package the Cubs would have to offer to get Stanton:
1. Baez or Russell. A controllable middle infielder with defensive skills is a premium position. One would think Miami, catering to Latin market, would prefer Baez's versatility over Russell (including injury history).
2. Schwarber. Even though Theo-Jed adore their Baby Ruth wannabee, there would be no position left for Schwarber if Stanton is acquired (since Heyward's best position is Gold Glove RF). Miami could use Schwarber as a trade flip to an AL club for more prospects.
3. Almora. The Marlins need to market hometown players to their fans. Almora is young and talented to be a long term marketing piece.
4. Edwards. The Marlins would prefer to get a starter (like Hendricks) but the Cubs cannot spare one. A bullpen piece with some upside would off-set the weakness in Cub farm prospects since Edwards has a major league track record.
5. One of the Top 4 pitching prospects (De La Cruz, Albertos, Alzolany, or Lange) and/or International Bonus pool money.
If you look at this possible transaction from a long term Cub prospective, Stanton fills a need to provide offense, solidify the outfield and give protection to Bryant and Rizzo in the batting order.
It is also an affordable transaction.
The Cubs have $55 million in contracts coming off the books at the end of the year (net $46 million with Quintana's salary for 2018). Stanton's salary in 2018 is $25 million, leaving $21 million to sign a free agent starting pitcher.
As a footnote to the argument, the Cubs would have to either extend the opt out clause with Stanton or pay less in major league talent for a potential 2-year contract (maybe three players and a prospect). The Cubs spent $13 million/season on Chatwood to be the 4th starter. So the team is still under budget (but with several key roles to fill including the closer position).
But this is a one-in-a-generation type move. The three years Stanton has to his opt out is the prime years for the current Cubs core. It also fits into the time frame for the Cubs to attempt to launch their own Cubs channel. Stanton is a superstar who solves a major problem in the current lineup: a consistent hitter that other teams fear.
Showing posts with label Giants. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Giants. Show all posts
December 8, 2017
November 8, 2017
BAD MONEY TRADES
It is projected that the Cubs will have approximately $70 million to spend on 8 major league roster spots ( 2- SP; 1-C, 1- OF, 4-RP).
Unless a team is really close to going deep into the playoffs, like the Cubs were last season, general managers are not likely to trade their minor league talent to acquire pricey veterans. Teams now value young players who are cost controllable for 6 years more than star, free agents.
The winter trade market is different than the trade deadline. In the winter, every team is re-tooling their roster and making organizational talent evaluations. They review what worked and what did not work last season. They have to project how their minor league players will develop in the first and second half of next season. They have to project how their major league roster is strong and weak to adapt/compensate for a long season ahead.
But the most jarring evaluation point is the dead money portion of the payroll. Owners loathe paying millions of dollars for players no longer with the club, or players who are drastically underperforming their contract value.
In the winter you see more "change of scenery" deals where teams are willing to trade an underperforming player for another team's underperforming player with the hope that the new team can "fix" the player. Many of these deals are trying to lessen the dead money portion of the payroll budget.
The first speculative dead money deal of the winter had numerous reports involving the Giants and the Cubs. Yahoo Sports and MLB.com reported that the the Giants have their eye acquiring Cubs outfielder Jason Heyward, for starter Jeff Samardzija and closer Mark Melancon.
Heyward, a four-time Gold Glove winner, is still owed $134 million over the next six years of his contract. While he's proved dependable with the glove, his production with the bat has fallen off in recent years. This past season, the 28-year-old hit .259/.326/.389 with 15 doubles, 11 homers and 59 RBI in 126 games.
The Giants are looking for a new center fielder. Heyward's primary position is right field, but he has started 63 career games in center field, including 12 in 2017
Samardzija is owed $59.4 million for the next three years. While Samardzija finished with a 9-15 record and a 4.42 ERA this past season, he finished with a 6.41 strikeout-to-walk ratio, good for second in the National League and fourth overall in the majors. He also surpassed 200 innings for the fifth straight season, finishing with 207.2 innings pitched. In the past two seasons with the Giants, he has a5.2 WAR, much better than his Cub years.
Melancon's first season with the Giants didn't go as planned. After signing a four-year, $62 million deal last winter, he battled an arm injury all year. He spent chunks of the season on the disabled list and appeared in just 32 games. When he returned in August, he served as the setup man to Sam Dyson. In early September, He finished with a 4.50 ERA and 29 strikeouts in 30 innings.
Melancon underwent pronator release surgery for nerve entrapments in the proximal forearm In a study of 205 patients using a self-assessment questionnaire, 45 months after the operation. The questionnaire consisted of visual analogue scale recordings of pre- and postoperative pain during rest and activity, questions about remaining symptoms and appreciation of the result and the Disabilities of Arm, Shoulder and Hand form (DASH). Altogether, 59% of the patients were satisfied, 58% considered themselves improved, and 3% as being entirely relieved of all symptoms.
Melacon, 32, is owed $53 million for the next three years. There is a current medical condition that is problematic. You could not count on him to be a viable closer candidate.
The Giants are trying to unload two players and $102.4 million in salary. The Cubs would like to shed Heyward's contract, but would only get about $30 million in relief. But this rumor is a typical dead money type trade. They look for upside potential while trying to shed downside player negatives.
Unless a team is really close to going deep into the playoffs, like the Cubs were last season, general managers are not likely to trade their minor league talent to acquire pricey veterans. Teams now value young players who are cost controllable for 6 years more than star, free agents.
The winter trade market is different than the trade deadline. In the winter, every team is re-tooling their roster and making organizational talent evaluations. They review what worked and what did not work last season. They have to project how their minor league players will develop in the first and second half of next season. They have to project how their major league roster is strong and weak to adapt/compensate for a long season ahead.
But the most jarring evaluation point is the dead money portion of the payroll. Owners loathe paying millions of dollars for players no longer with the club, or players who are drastically underperforming their contract value.
In the winter you see more "change of scenery" deals where teams are willing to trade an underperforming player for another team's underperforming player with the hope that the new team can "fix" the player. Many of these deals are trying to lessen the dead money portion of the payroll budget.
The first speculative dead money deal of the winter had numerous reports involving the Giants and the Cubs. Yahoo Sports and MLB.com reported that the the Giants have their eye acquiring Cubs outfielder Jason Heyward, for starter Jeff Samardzija and closer Mark Melancon.
Heyward, a four-time Gold Glove winner, is still owed $134 million over the next six years of his contract. While he's proved dependable with the glove, his production with the bat has fallen off in recent years. This past season, the 28-year-old hit .259/.326/.389 with 15 doubles, 11 homers and 59 RBI in 126 games.
The Giants are looking for a new center fielder. Heyward's primary position is right field, but he has started 63 career games in center field, including 12 in 2017
Samardzija is owed $59.4 million for the next three years. While Samardzija finished with a 9-15 record and a 4.42 ERA this past season, he finished with a 6.41 strikeout-to-walk ratio, good for second in the National League and fourth overall in the majors. He also surpassed 200 innings for the fifth straight season, finishing with 207.2 innings pitched. In the past two seasons with the Giants, he has a5.2 WAR, much better than his Cub years.
Melancon's first season with the Giants didn't go as planned. After signing a four-year, $62 million deal last winter, he battled an arm injury all year. He spent chunks of the season on the disabled list and appeared in just 32 games. When he returned in August, he served as the setup man to Sam Dyson. In early September, He finished with a 4.50 ERA and 29 strikeouts in 30 innings.
Melancon underwent pronator release surgery for nerve entrapments in the proximal forearm In a study of 205 patients using a self-assessment questionnaire, 45 months after the operation. The questionnaire consisted of visual analogue scale recordings of pre- and postoperative pain during rest and activity, questions about remaining symptoms and appreciation of the result and the Disabilities of Arm, Shoulder and Hand form (DASH). Altogether, 59% of the patients were satisfied, 58% considered themselves improved, and 3% as being entirely relieved of all symptoms.
Melacon, 32, is owed $53 million for the next three years. There is a current medical condition that is problematic. You could not count on him to be a viable closer candidate.
The Giants are trying to unload two players and $102.4 million in salary. The Cubs would like to shed Heyward's contract, but would only get about $30 million in relief. But this rumor is a typical dead money type trade. They look for upside potential while trying to shed downside player negatives.
October 12, 2016
HOW YOU SPELL RELIEF?
C-O-M-E-B-A-C-K.
The Cubs were down 3 runs in the 9th but came back in New Cub style by taking pitches, putting the ball in play and playing stellar defense.
This season the Cubs were best offensively when they keep the order moving in an inning by "earning" walks, clutch hitting and good base running. By adding to a starter's pitch count early, the Cubs would wait for their pitches to hit.
In the playoffs, the pressure and competition level increases. For the first three games of the Giants series, it was the #9 pitcher spot that was most productive with 6 RBI. But Rizzo broke an 0-13 slump to get on base 3 times last night as a redemptive spark to the heart of the order.
Chapman also redeemed himself by mowing down the Giants in order in the bottom of the 9th. He just threw 102 mph fastballs past them.
But the most remarkable thing about this series was that the young players, Contreras, Baez and Almora, seem to thrive on the big stage. Each contributed on both offense and defense. Baez made his own highlight reel during the series.
The Cubs showed that they can claw back from any deficit. That is the great thing about baseball. You have 27 outs. The game is never over until the last out is recorded. So there is always a sliver of hope.
In the post game celebration, Maddon admitted that he did not want to have to deal with a Game 5 situation. He managed to win it last night. He may not believe in the doom of the curse, but he tends to manage against it. His moves last night were better than Game 3.
The expectation and hope increases in the NLCS. The Cubs appear to be ready to meet that challenge.
The Cubs were down 3 runs in the 9th but came back in New Cub style by taking pitches, putting the ball in play and playing stellar defense.
This season the Cubs were best offensively when they keep the order moving in an inning by "earning" walks, clutch hitting and good base running. By adding to a starter's pitch count early, the Cubs would wait for their pitches to hit.
In the playoffs, the pressure and competition level increases. For the first three games of the Giants series, it was the #9 pitcher spot that was most productive with 6 RBI. But Rizzo broke an 0-13 slump to get on base 3 times last night as a redemptive spark to the heart of the order.
Chapman also redeemed himself by mowing down the Giants in order in the bottom of the 9th. He just threw 102 mph fastballs past them.
But the most remarkable thing about this series was that the young players, Contreras, Baez and Almora, seem to thrive on the big stage. Each contributed on both offense and defense. Baez made his own highlight reel during the series.
The Cubs showed that they can claw back from any deficit. That is the great thing about baseball. You have 27 outs. The game is never over until the last out is recorded. So there is always a sliver of hope.
In the post game celebration, Maddon admitted that he did not want to have to deal with a Game 5 situation. He managed to win it last night. He may not believe in the doom of the curse, but he tends to manage against it. His moves last night were better than Game 3.
The expectation and hope increases in the NLCS. The Cubs appear to be ready to meet that challenge.
October 6, 2016
A GIANT PROBLEM?
I was sitting in a bar talking to friends. The Mets-Giants game was on in the background. A nervous Cub fan wanted the Mets to win the wild card so it would be easier for the Cubs in the NLDS.
The Mets have lost two starters to the DL.
The Giants have playoff demigod, Madison Bumgarner.
So when an ex-White Sox player hits a 3 run HR in the top of the 9th in a scoreless pitchers duel, the anxiety of a Cub fan begins to emerge.
However, being the voice of calming reason, I said "it does not matter who the Cubs play. The Cubs are going to steamroll to the championship."
Last year's playoff run was unexpected. I went along for the ride.
This year's playoff run was expected. The team did not have any significant pitching injuries. The team has balanced veteran presence and young players maturing into All-Stars. This year I expect a championship. And so do the Cub players.
Jake Arrieta should have a massive mean chip on his shoulder when he squares off against Bumgarner in Game 2 in SF.
John Lackey will follow Arrieta with his own brand of teeth grinding contempt.
The Cubs won the season series 4-3. The Giants have an uncanny ability to play better than their roster on paper.
There are few analysts who believe that due to the playoff format, the Cubs are at a disadvantage in the NLDS. They believe the long layoff of five days is a major rust factor for the Cubs, the #1 seed. Second, the wild card victor has momentum on their side. Third, the best of five series favors the visiting team if they can take one of the first two games on the road. The pressure is on the home team Cubs to sweep the first two games.
But the series will come down to starting pitching match-ups.
Cueto vs. Lester is probably a draw.
Moore vs. Hendricks is advantage Cubs.
Bumgarner vs. Arrieta would be a toss up if Jake shows up as the 2015 Arrieta.
Samardzija vs. Lackey is advantage Cubs if Lackey can throw strikes and not be squeezed by the home plate umpire.
The Cubs have a 75 percent chance to win the NLDS. One would expect a 3-1 series win.
The Mets have lost two starters to the DL.
The Giants have playoff demigod, Madison Bumgarner.
So when an ex-White Sox player hits a 3 run HR in the top of the 9th in a scoreless pitchers duel, the anxiety of a Cub fan begins to emerge.
However, being the voice of calming reason, I said "it does not matter who the Cubs play. The Cubs are going to steamroll to the championship."
Last year's playoff run was unexpected. I went along for the ride.
This year's playoff run was expected. The team did not have any significant pitching injuries. The team has balanced veteran presence and young players maturing into All-Stars. This year I expect a championship. And so do the Cub players.
Jake Arrieta should have a massive mean chip on his shoulder when he squares off against Bumgarner in Game 2 in SF.
John Lackey will follow Arrieta with his own brand of teeth grinding contempt.
The Cubs won the season series 4-3. The Giants have an uncanny ability to play better than their roster on paper.
There are few analysts who believe that due to the playoff format, the Cubs are at a disadvantage in the NLDS. They believe the long layoff of five days is a major rust factor for the Cubs, the #1 seed. Second, the wild card victor has momentum on their side. Third, the best of five series favors the visiting team if they can take one of the first two games on the road. The pressure is on the home team Cubs to sweep the first two games.
But the series will come down to starting pitching match-ups.
Cueto vs. Lester is probably a draw.
Moore vs. Hendricks is advantage Cubs.
Bumgarner vs. Arrieta would be a toss up if Jake shows up as the 2015 Arrieta.
Samardzija vs. Lackey is advantage Cubs if Lackey can throw strikes and not be squeezed by the home plate umpire.
The Cubs have a 75 percent chance to win the NLDS. One would expect a 3-1 series win.
December 13, 2015
PITCHING VALUE
There is still the report that some team has offered Jeff Samardzija $100 million.
No pitcher of Samardzija's value has signed a $100 million contract. Jordan Zimmermann has been worth 16.7 WAR over the past four seasons -- more than double Samardzija's 6.8 -- and just signed for five years and $110 million.
Based on a contract value of $5.7 million per WAR, Zimmermann's past value has been $95.19 million. He received a 15.5 percent premium in his new Tiger deal. This assumes that he will have the same performance going forward.
$38.76 million is the value of Samardzija's past performance, which is 40.7 percent less than Zimmerman's value. $44.77 million is 40.7 percent of Zimmermann's value.
So why is the report so off the current formula?
First, it could be that this is agent talk to goose up the player's market.
Second, it could be that the agent is looking to other factors such as durability, innings pitched and other advanced metrics to compare Samardzija to more valuable starting pitchers.
However, Zimmermann has #1 ace characteristics and is being paid at that level at $22 million AAV.
Samardzija is not a #1 starter now. He fits into a #3 or #4 starter based on last season with the White Sox.
In a market filled with quality starting pitchers, Samardzija is not expected to bring a premium value to a club's final payroll.
Well, the Giants, having lost Greinke to divisional rival Arizona, stepped up and gave the Shark 5 years/$90 million. At $18 million AAV, Samardzija actually made $5 million more than the Cubs deal he turned down 2 years ago (and having a bad season with the White Sox).
The Giants are paying the equivalent of $13.2 million/WAR for Samardzija which is a 233 percent premium over standard value.
The Shark still is a #3 pitcher in San Francisco after Bumgarner and Cain. Bumgarner will be paid this year $9.75 million for his 4.8 WAR in 2015. Cain is going to be paid $21 million for his negative 0.7 WAR in 2015.
If you think pitching valuations make no sense, then the Giants payroll is a good exhibit.
No pitcher of Samardzija's value has signed a $100 million contract. Jordan Zimmermann has been worth 16.7 WAR over the past four seasons -- more than double Samardzija's 6.8 -- and just signed for five years and $110 million.
Based on a contract value of $5.7 million per WAR, Zimmermann's past value has been $95.19 million. He received a 15.5 percent premium in his new Tiger deal. This assumes that he will have the same performance going forward.
$38.76 million is the value of Samardzija's past performance, which is 40.7 percent less than Zimmerman's value. $44.77 million is 40.7 percent of Zimmermann's value.
So why is the report so off the current formula?
First, it could be that this is agent talk to goose up the player's market.
Second, it could be that the agent is looking to other factors such as durability, innings pitched and other advanced metrics to compare Samardzija to more valuable starting pitchers.
However, Zimmermann has #1 ace characteristics and is being paid at that level at $22 million AAV.
Samardzija is not a #1 starter now. He fits into a #3 or #4 starter based on last season with the White Sox.
In a market filled with quality starting pitchers, Samardzija is not expected to bring a premium value to a club's final payroll.
Well, the Giants, having lost Greinke to divisional rival Arizona, stepped up and gave the Shark 5 years/$90 million. At $18 million AAV, Samardzija actually made $5 million more than the Cubs deal he turned down 2 years ago (and having a bad season with the White Sox).
The Giants are paying the equivalent of $13.2 million/WAR for Samardzija which is a 233 percent premium over standard value.
The Shark still is a #3 pitcher in San Francisco after Bumgarner and Cain. Bumgarner will be paid this year $9.75 million for his 4.8 WAR in 2015. Cain is going to be paid $21 million for his negative 0.7 WAR in 2015.
If you think pitching valuations make no sense, then the Giants payroll is a good exhibit.
August 26, 2015
PLAYOFF BASEBALL
When the Giants were recently at Wrigley Field, Joe Maddon managed the Cubs like it was a play-off series. When was the last time a Cub manager used his roster like it was a must-win game seven in a series? It worked. The atmosphere and the Cubs sweeping the Giants propelled the Cubs into the "very good team" category.
The team has exceeded most people's expectations.
It has been a rolling momentum. In the early part of the season, Anthony Rizzo was the powerful glue in the lineup. He led by example, hitting homers but also buying into the Maddon philosophy that "you get two strikes then earn first base with a walk or hit."
But the team did not have to put everything on Rizzo's shoulders. Kris Bryant was injected into the lineup which gave it another powerful, poised hitter. The Cubs continued to roll.
And when the dog days of summer came around, the team was infused with more talent. Kyle Schwarber gives the lineup another professional hitter. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, Schwarber became the first Cubs player within the modern era (since 1900) to hit 12 home runs within his first 42 career games.
By September, the Cubs will have another injection of talent, especially to upgrade second base over Chris Coghlan and Starlin Castro platoon, with Javy Baez. Down the stretch, defense matters and Baez is a better fielder than either Coghlan or Castro.
Throughout the season, the most consistent player has been Jake Arrieta. He has become the quiet ace of the staff. He looks mad when he goes to the mound. His control has been excellent. He has pitched 13 straight quality starts. The debate is over: he will be the wild card game starter.
There are still some glaring weaknesses on the team. The fourth and fifth starter roles have been a sore point. The overworked bullpen is beginning to show the strain of the long season.
The West Coast road trip has traditionally been a Cub killer. But with an opening swing victory over the Giants, sending San Francisco 7.5 GB the Cubs in the wild card race, the Cubs could bury the Giants with a series sweep. The Cubs have won six in a row. They no longer think about just "winning" series but sweeping series.
To add to the joy of this summer, this team is very likable. They are young, energetic, polite, and professional - - - which is a testament to how Maddon has forged a special bond with his players.
The Cubs control their own destiny this season. That itself is a scary but unexpected result.
The team has exceeded most people's expectations.
It has been a rolling momentum. In the early part of the season, Anthony Rizzo was the powerful glue in the lineup. He led by example, hitting homers but also buying into the Maddon philosophy that "you get two strikes then earn first base with a walk or hit."
But the team did not have to put everything on Rizzo's shoulders. Kris Bryant was injected into the lineup which gave it another powerful, poised hitter. The Cubs continued to roll.
And when the dog days of summer came around, the team was infused with more talent. Kyle Schwarber gives the lineup another professional hitter. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, Schwarber became the first Cubs player within the modern era (since 1900) to hit 12 home runs within his first 42 career games.
By September, the Cubs will have another injection of talent, especially to upgrade second base over Chris Coghlan and Starlin Castro platoon, with Javy Baez. Down the stretch, defense matters and Baez is a better fielder than either Coghlan or Castro.
Throughout the season, the most consistent player has been Jake Arrieta. He has become the quiet ace of the staff. He looks mad when he goes to the mound. His control has been excellent. He has pitched 13 straight quality starts. The debate is over: he will be the wild card game starter.
There are still some glaring weaknesses on the team. The fourth and fifth starter roles have been a sore point. The overworked bullpen is beginning to show the strain of the long season.
The West Coast road trip has traditionally been a Cub killer. But with an opening swing victory over the Giants, sending San Francisco 7.5 GB the Cubs in the wild card race, the Cubs could bury the Giants with a series sweep. The Cubs have won six in a row. They no longer think about just "winning" series but sweeping series.
To add to the joy of this summer, this team is very likable. They are young, energetic, polite, and professional - - - which is a testament to how Maddon has forged a special bond with his players.
The Cubs control their own destiny this season. That itself is a scary but unexpected result.
August 13, 2015
HOW STRANGE
Did you realize that this morning the defending World Series champions, the Giants, are the same amount of games out of the Wild Card than the lowly White Sox?
Both teams are 4.5 GB in the last wild card spot.
But you could never imagine anyone thinking the Giants and White Sox' shot at the playoffs were equal. The Giants are a good, competitive club even though they were swept by the Cubs. The White Sox have been an underwhelming, underachieving team all season.
The AL playoff race has tightened up. The White Sox still have to climb over many teams to reach the playoffs while the Giants only need the Pirates or Cubs to fall.
But anything is possible.
Take the Blue Jays unbelievable run.
Last night twelve of the first 16 Blue Jays batters reached base as Toronto scored three runs in the first and seven in the second to trounce Oakland for the Jays' 10th consecutive victory. A victory with the Yankees loss to Cleveland, moved the Blue Jays into first place in the AL East.
Two weeks ago, the Blue Jays were in 4th place and 8 games out of first place. Then they made a flurry of deals including acquiring Troy Tulowitzki and David Price. Since then, the Blue Jays have gone 13-1 while the Yankees have gone 4-9.
Realistically, there is 7 weeks left in the season. Any team more than 7 games behind a playoff slot is probably out of the race, since making up 1 game a 1 week is the most reasonable prediction any GM can make at this time in the season.
Both teams are 4.5 GB in the last wild card spot.
But you could never imagine anyone thinking the Giants and White Sox' shot at the playoffs were equal. The Giants are a good, competitive club even though they were swept by the Cubs. The White Sox have been an underwhelming, underachieving team all season.
The AL playoff race has tightened up. The White Sox still have to climb over many teams to reach the playoffs while the Giants only need the Pirates or Cubs to fall.
But anything is possible.
Take the Blue Jays unbelievable run.
Last night twelve of the first 16 Blue Jays batters reached base as Toronto scored three runs in the first and seven in the second to trounce Oakland for the Jays' 10th consecutive victory. A victory with the Yankees loss to Cleveland, moved the Blue Jays into first place in the AL East.
Two weeks ago, the Blue Jays were in 4th place and 8 games out of first place. Then they made a flurry of deals including acquiring Troy Tulowitzki and David Price. Since then, the Blue Jays have gone 13-1 while the Yankees have gone 4-9.
Realistically, there is 7 weeks left in the season. Any team more than 7 games behind a playoff slot is probably out of the race, since making up 1 game a 1 week is the most reasonable prediction any GM can make at this time in the season.
August 10, 2015
BOMB THREAT
The Cubs bandwagon will get bigger after the sweep of the World Series champs, Giants. It was the first time in 100 years that the Cubs swept a four game series against the defending champions. The Cubs lead the Giants by 3.5 games in the last wild card spot. The Giants play their next 22 games against opponents with winning records. It is possible that the Cubs could create a substantial lead in the wild card race.
The odds are now at a 78% probability that the Cubs will make the playoffs.
Just as the fans celebrated the final weekend series victory, there was an unfounded bomb threat called into Wrigley Field. It was evacuated without incident.
The Cubs are riding high with a young team. Management is now playing this season as a championship one. Joe Maddon has benched starter and former All Star shortstop Starlin Castro in favor of Addison Russell. However, the move from Russell at second leaves an inexperienced and terrible defender in Chris Coghlan manning that position. In Sunday's game, Coghlan in back to back innings had miscues at second: first, the inability to make a good turn on a double play and second, not covering the bag on a steal attempt.
With the Cubs pitching still suspect, a stellar defense is an important component to winning. Maddon has realized this by taking out Jorge Soler in the late innings with a defensive replacement.
The Cubs continue to run with a short bench by carrying 13 pitchers on the roster. This cuts down on the manager's in-game flexibility. But the bullpen is still a major issue and the more arms the better. When your closer loads the bases with no outs, then has to pitch his way out of the jam with nearly 40 throws, you need more than one closer on the roster.
There are still major flaws in this team. There is always the lingering notion that sometime soon there will be a "Cubby occurrence" that will derail the season. Dan Haren is not the solution for the 5th starter role. The young hitters (Russell, Bryant, Soler) still have trouble adjusting to pitchers and the strike zone.
But at least this year, games in August and September will matter.
The odds are now at a 78% probability that the Cubs will make the playoffs.
Just as the fans celebrated the final weekend series victory, there was an unfounded bomb threat called into Wrigley Field. It was evacuated without incident.
The Cubs are riding high with a young team. Management is now playing this season as a championship one. Joe Maddon has benched starter and former All Star shortstop Starlin Castro in favor of Addison Russell. However, the move from Russell at second leaves an inexperienced and terrible defender in Chris Coghlan manning that position. In Sunday's game, Coghlan in back to back innings had miscues at second: first, the inability to make a good turn on a double play and second, not covering the bag on a steal attempt.
With the Cubs pitching still suspect, a stellar defense is an important component to winning. Maddon has realized this by taking out Jorge Soler in the late innings with a defensive replacement.
The Cubs continue to run with a short bench by carrying 13 pitchers on the roster. This cuts down on the manager's in-game flexibility. But the bullpen is still a major issue and the more arms the better. When your closer loads the bases with no outs, then has to pitch his way out of the jam with nearly 40 throws, you need more than one closer on the roster.
There are still major flaws in this team. There is always the lingering notion that sometime soon there will be a "Cubby occurrence" that will derail the season. Dan Haren is not the solution for the 5th starter role. The young hitters (Russell, Bryant, Soler) still have trouble adjusting to pitchers and the strike zone.
But at least this year, games in August and September will matter.
June 13, 2015
NO HITTER
You can never tell what will happen in a baseball game. Giants 27 year old rookie pitcher Chris Heston took the mound this week in a fill-in role. He just happened to throw the 2015 season's first no-hitter on Tuesday, and he made it look
easy. With only 12 major league starts, Heston
needed just 110 pitches to no-hit the New York Mets.
Heston's no-hitter was the majors' first since Jordan Zimmerman of Washington on Sept. 28, 2014, the final day of the regular season. Since then, there have been two near-misses that were broken up in the ninth inning.
This was the 17th no-hitter in Giants history, and the fourth in as many seasons. Matt Cain threw a perfect game against the Astros in 2012, while Tim Lincecum no-hit the Padres in both 2013 and '14.
Heston struck out 11 and didn't walk anyone, though he did hit three
batters, more than any other pitcher to throw a no-hitter since 1914. He didn’t allow a single well-hit ball all
night. Only two of his 27 outs came via fly balls to the outfield. The rest came via 13
ground balls.
Si.com had a chart of Heston's performance:
Command and control was the key to Heston's no hitter. He did not overpower the Mets, but he out pitched the Mets line up. The variation in location where the outs happened shows that the Mets batters could not lock in to one batting zone.
Heston's no-hitter was the majors' first since Jordan Zimmerman of Washington on Sept. 28, 2014, the final day of the regular season. Since then, there have been two near-misses that were broken up in the ninth inning.
This was the 17th no-hitter in Giants history, and the fourth in as many seasons. Matt Cain threw a perfect game against the Astros in 2012, while Tim Lincecum no-hit the Padres in both 2013 and '14.
Si.com had a chart of Heston's performance:
May 13, 2015
THE BONDS THAT BREAK
Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports that Barry Bonds will file a grievance against baseball owners for allegedly blacklisting him from baseball.
Bonds claims collusion by teams that prevented him from obtaining a playing job following the 2007 season. He has long contended that a collusion of MLB owners effectively ended his career after the 2007 season when he set the career home run record with 762 homers.
However, Bonds was 42 years old during the 2007 season. He was well beyond the normal age for a productive baseball player. And he was under extreme scrutiny both inside and outside of baseball for allegations of PED use.
In 2003, Bonds' name came up during the BALCO scandal when his personal trainer, Greg Anderson was indicted by the U.S. and charged with supplying illegal anabolic steroids to athletes, including baseball players. This led to speculation that Bonds had used performance-enhancing drugs during a time when there was no mandatory testing in Major League Baseball. Bonds declared his innocence, attributing his changed physique and increased power to a strict regimen of bodybuilding, diet and legitimate supplements.
During grand jury testimony on December 4, 2003, Bonds said that he used a clear substance and a cream that he received from his personal strength trainer, Greg Anderson, who told him they were the nutritional supplement flaxseed oil and a rubbing balm for arthritis. Later reports on Bonds’ leaked grand-jury testimony contend that he admitted to unknowingly using "the clear" which was reportedly a form of the designer steroid THG and "the cream" which was reportedly a concoction designed to mask certain hormone ratios helping the user to beat drug tests.
In August 2005, all four defendants in the BALCO steroid scandal trial, including Anderson, struck deals with federal prosecutors that did not require them to reveal names of athletes who may have used banned drugs.
On November 15, 2007, a federal grand jury returned an indictment against Bonds. He was charged with four counts of perjury and one count of obstruction of justice. "During the criminal investigation, evidence was obtained including positive tests for the presence of anabolic steroids and other performance enhancing substances for Bonds and other athletes," the indictment reads. The charges focus on Bonds' responses to the grand jury in his 2003 testimony, specifically his denials when asked if he had used steroids, and whether Anderson had administered steroids to him.
The case went to trial, with Bonds being convicted on one count of obstruction of justice (the jury was hung on other counts) for lying to a grand jury about his alleged steroid use. His conviction was recently overturned on appeal.
Since the BALCO matter is now completed, it appears Bonds is ready to move ahead against MLB.
Bonds and his agent have said that Bonds, despite having a good season (.276 BA, 28 HR, 66 RBI) he received no offers to play in the 2008 season. His reputation of being difficult with the media, aloof from the fans, and caught up in baseball's steroid scandal hurt his chances to becoming a Hall of Fame inductee despite being the game's greatest home run hitter.
It is unclear that Bonds' grievance against the owners will have any traction. Did a 43 year old player with baggage worth a contract offer?
Bonds claims collusion by teams that prevented him from obtaining a playing job following the 2007 season. He has long contended that a collusion of MLB owners effectively ended his career after the 2007 season when he set the career home run record with 762 homers.
However, Bonds was 42 years old during the 2007 season. He was well beyond the normal age for a productive baseball player. And he was under extreme scrutiny both inside and outside of baseball for allegations of PED use.
In 2003, Bonds' name came up during the BALCO scandal when his personal trainer, Greg Anderson was indicted by the U.S. and charged with supplying illegal anabolic steroids to athletes, including baseball players. This led to speculation that Bonds had used performance-enhancing drugs during a time when there was no mandatory testing in Major League Baseball. Bonds declared his innocence, attributing his changed physique and increased power to a strict regimen of bodybuilding, diet and legitimate supplements.
During grand jury testimony on December 4, 2003, Bonds said that he used a clear substance and a cream that he received from his personal strength trainer, Greg Anderson, who told him they were the nutritional supplement flaxseed oil and a rubbing balm for arthritis. Later reports on Bonds’ leaked grand-jury testimony contend that he admitted to unknowingly using "the clear" which was reportedly a form of the designer steroid THG and "the cream" which was reportedly a concoction designed to mask certain hormone ratios helping the user to beat drug tests.
In August 2005, all four defendants in the BALCO steroid scandal trial, including Anderson, struck deals with federal prosecutors that did not require them to reveal names of athletes who may have used banned drugs.
On November 15, 2007, a federal grand jury returned an indictment against Bonds. He was charged with four counts of perjury and one count of obstruction of justice. "During the criminal investigation, evidence was obtained including positive tests for the presence of anabolic steroids and other performance enhancing substances for Bonds and other athletes," the indictment reads. The charges focus on Bonds' responses to the grand jury in his 2003 testimony, specifically his denials when asked if he had used steroids, and whether Anderson had administered steroids to him.
The case went to trial, with Bonds being convicted on one count of obstruction of justice (the jury was hung on other counts) for lying to a grand jury about his alleged steroid use. His conviction was recently overturned on appeal.
Since the BALCO matter is now completed, it appears Bonds is ready to move ahead against MLB.
Bonds and his agent have said that Bonds, despite having a good season (.276 BA, 28 HR, 66 RBI) he received no offers to play in the 2008 season. His reputation of being difficult with the media, aloof from the fans, and caught up in baseball's steroid scandal hurt his chances to becoming a Hall of Fame inductee despite being the game's greatest home run hitter.
It is unclear that Bonds' grievance against the owners will have any traction. Did a 43 year old player with baggage worth a contract offer?
December 12, 2014
DODGING BULLETS
For teams bidding for Jon Lester, it was disappointing when he signed with the Cubs.
However, tying up millions of dollars long term on a 31 year old pitcher can be a curse.
Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci wrote a story about the Lester sweepstakes and made the following two declarations:
1) "Whichever team winds up winning the bidding for Jon Lester will get a very good pitcher and a very bad contract."
2) "It's foolish to give a pitcher in the Testing Era a six- or seven-year contract that begins with his age-31 season. In fact, it's so foolish it's never been done before."
Verducci provided statistics to defend his claims.
Although the Giants clearly wanted Lester, Comcast SanFran asked the question of whether the team possibly dodged a bullet?
"Oh I totally agree," TV analyst Mike Krukow said. "You know how I feel about six-, seven-year contracts for pitchers, I just don't think they are realistic ... It's a roll of the dice. I just don't like it ... I don't think that it makes that much sense.
"But you know what, it's a roll of the dice, total roll of the dice. You're betting on a six-year deal to get him for the first four. If you get him for the last two that's a benefit. I don't think anybody giving a contract of six years or more to anybody 30 years of age or older is planning on the back end of that contract. I just don't think they are.
"So I do agree that in a way the Giants did dodge a little bit of a bullet there, but still, it's disappointing."
However, tying up millions of dollars long term on a 31 year old pitcher can be a curse.
Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci wrote a story about the Lester sweepstakes and made the following two declarations:
1) "Whichever team winds up winning the bidding for Jon Lester will get a very good pitcher and a very bad contract."
2) "It's foolish to give a pitcher in the Testing Era a six- or seven-year contract that begins with his age-31 season. In fact, it's so foolish it's never been done before."
Verducci provided statistics to defend his claims.
Although the Giants clearly wanted Lester, Comcast SanFran asked the question of whether the team possibly dodged a bullet?
"Oh I totally agree," TV analyst Mike Krukow said. "You know how I feel about six-, seven-year contracts for pitchers, I just don't think they are realistic ... It's a roll of the dice. I just don't like it ... I don't think that it makes that much sense.
"But you know what, it's a roll of the dice, total roll of the dice. You're betting on a six-year deal to get him for the first four. If you get him for the last two that's a benefit. I don't think anybody giving a contract of six years or more to anybody 30 years of age or older is planning on the back end of that contract. I just don't think they are.
"So I do agree that in a way the Giants did dodge a little bit of a bullet there, but still, it's disappointing."
November 10, 2014
PANDA ON THE LOOSE
A 28 year old multiple World Series champion on the open market is a rarity in baseball.
Pablo Sandoval is such a free agent. The Panda, the Giants third baseman, is seeking a six-year contract on the open market, his agent Gustavo Vasquez told the SF Chronicle.
Vasquez explains that the six-year term of the contract is more important to Sandoval than the average annual value. That comment isn’t surprising, as a player will typically downgrade a contract’s AAV as the years increase. While he said Sandoval has no specific dollar figure in mind, other reports have indicated the deal will cost more than $100 million. So, while the AAV of the deal may be somewhat flexible, it seems Vasquez must be eyeing at least a $17MM annual salary for his client.
With a qualifying offer of $15.3 million, that sets a high base for quality free agents.
Sandoval has played seven years. His career WAR is 21.1. Based on $5 million per WAR, one could say he is worth $15 million per average year. Last season his WAR was 3.3. He would counter by saying is value is $16.5 million. $1.5 million gap over 6 years is $9 million, or 1.8 WAR (and a 0.3 WAR/season application).
The six year time frame puts Sandoval in the prime of his career.
However, he has the chunky body type that some people may consider a risk. For a .279 BA, 16 HR and 79 RBI, he is not the most productive corner infielder in the league. It is his post-season numbers that make him attractive to playoff teams.
A few people believe he will take a "home town" discount and stay with the Giants. But perhaps the Giants will think hard to allocate that $100 million commitment to retention of pitching, which was the key to their World Series championship.
Pablo Sandoval is such a free agent. The Panda, the Giants third baseman, is seeking a six-year contract on the open market, his agent Gustavo Vasquez told the SF Chronicle.
Vasquez explains that the six-year term of the contract is more important to Sandoval than the average annual value. That comment isn’t surprising, as a player will typically downgrade a contract’s AAV as the years increase. While he said Sandoval has no specific dollar figure in mind, other reports have indicated the deal will cost more than $100 million. So, while the AAV of the deal may be somewhat flexible, it seems Vasquez must be eyeing at least a $17MM annual salary for his client.
With a qualifying offer of $15.3 million, that sets a high base for quality free agents.
Sandoval has played seven years. His career WAR is 21.1. Based on $5 million per WAR, one could say he is worth $15 million per average year. Last season his WAR was 3.3. He would counter by saying is value is $16.5 million. $1.5 million gap over 6 years is $9 million, or 1.8 WAR (and a 0.3 WAR/season application).
The six year time frame puts Sandoval in the prime of his career.
However, he has the chunky body type that some people may consider a risk. For a .279 BA, 16 HR and 79 RBI, he is not the most productive corner infielder in the league. It is his post-season numbers that make him attractive to playoff teams.
A few people believe he will take a "home town" discount and stay with the Giants. But perhaps the Giants will think hard to allocate that $100 million commitment to retention of pitching, which was the key to their World Series championship.
October 28, 2014
FALLING STARS
Yahoo Sports reports that the 2015 World Series, despite having great characters and interesting storylines, has hit a ratings low not seen since the first Series broadcast in 1947.
So why are so few Americans captivated by the drama?
The
dynamic, too-young-to-worry Royals that brought Kansas City its first
pennant since 1985 and the colorful, resourceful San Francisco Giants
back to their third Series in five years have split the first two games.
Yet the ratings for Fox’s game one broadcast were the lowest since the Fall Classic was first televised in 1947, continuing a
steady, decade-long slide in the television audience for postseason
baseball.
Have Americans, in their 21st century over-stimulated haste, at last lost their patience for the leisurely pace of the game?
“It
has now become widely acknowledged,” says
Henry Blodget, “that even Major League Baseball is
starting to recognize just the pace of the game takes forever.” While
he notes that some game-hastening rules are being tested in the minor
leagues, in the majors long breaks, tedious pitcher rituals and TV
cutaways cause games to drag.
This
year the typical game in the majors this season exceeded three hours,
the longest average duration ever. Three decades ago, games were almost a
half-hour shorter. MLB, an otherwise thriving industry in terms of
attendance and revenues, and its newly elected Commissioner Rob Manfred has assigned a committee to figure out ways to quicken the pace of play. However, the players in the Arizona Fall League are having a tough time adjusting to the new pace of play rules.
Blodget
notes that pro football continues to dominate in TV mindshare, with its
built-for-TV physical drama and mayhem, augmented by runaway interest
in fantasy football and gambling. Tellingly, the NFL’s Thursday night
regular season game last week drew 25% more eyeballs than did World
Series game one.
August 21, 2014
TARPGATE
It is one thing for a team to want to lose, i.e. tank a season.
It is another to break the rules in order to lose.
There is a real problem with the league office's decision to uphold the Giant's appeal on the rain called Tuesday contest at Wrigley Field. The game was official when the rain came down and made the field unplayable, even after 4 hours of delay. It was not a mechanical issue, as the Wrigley tarp is a manual operation.
The Giants were livid because they believed the Cubs grounds crew were lax in trying to get the tarp rolled out onto the infield. By the time the tarps were placed, there was standing water on the infield. Loads of drying agent and sand could not correct the saturation.
However, the difficulty with the tarp was not mechanical, but Mother Nature. The intensity of the rain made the tarp heavy. Also, reports that the Cubs have cut back on the number of grounds crew members in a cost-savings measure probably raises more eyebrows than the game suspension issue.
The rule clearly states that the game is official after 4.5 innings if the home team is in the lead. That is what happened Tuesday. The rule also clearly states that such a game is not suspended if rain does not allow resumption of play. That is what happened Tuesday.
The Giants were still not happy. The team is in a close pennant race. Every win counts. The manager believed it was "unfair" not to conclude the game because of the alleged botched tarp placement. Any rule can be interpreted as unfair if you are on the brunt end of a ruling.
But as Brian Hanley remarked on the radio this morning, he was more concerned with the Cubs GM Hoyer not sticking up for the letter of the law. He has never heard of a general manager in any sport consenting to removing a win from his team. And I agree with that statement; the Cubs front office was too remorseful after the incident to the point of waiving the rule in the eyes of the league. And this only makes sense if the Cubs want to lose games if the plan is to get the number one draft pick next year. Hoyer and Epstein are always telling the media that they are looking for loopholes in order to leverage an advantage; by agreeing to take a win from their record by breaking the rules is clearly a strange way to meet their plan objectives. It is also a major middle finger to the fans, especially those who left Wrigley thinking they saw a victory. No fan wants their team to lose on purpose, let alone break the rules in order to lose.
The strained explanation by the league:
It is another to break the rules in order to lose.
There is a real problem with the league office's decision to uphold the Giant's appeal on the rain called Tuesday contest at Wrigley Field. The game was official when the rain came down and made the field unplayable, even after 4 hours of delay. It was not a mechanical issue, as the Wrigley tarp is a manual operation.
The Giants were livid because they believed the Cubs grounds crew were lax in trying to get the tarp rolled out onto the infield. By the time the tarps were placed, there was standing water on the infield. Loads of drying agent and sand could not correct the saturation.
However, the difficulty with the tarp was not mechanical, but Mother Nature. The intensity of the rain made the tarp heavy. Also, reports that the Cubs have cut back on the number of grounds crew members in a cost-savings measure probably raises more eyebrows than the game suspension issue.
The rule clearly states that the game is official after 4.5 innings if the home team is in the lead. That is what happened Tuesday. The rule also clearly states that such a game is not suspended if rain does not allow resumption of play. That is what happened Tuesday.
The Giants were still not happy. The team is in a close pennant race. Every win counts. The manager believed it was "unfair" not to conclude the game because of the alleged botched tarp placement. Any rule can be interpreted as unfair if you are on the brunt end of a ruling.
But as Brian Hanley remarked on the radio this morning, he was more concerned with the Cubs GM Hoyer not sticking up for the letter of the law. He has never heard of a general manager in any sport consenting to removing a win from his team. And I agree with that statement; the Cubs front office was too remorseful after the incident to the point of waiving the rule in the eyes of the league. And this only makes sense if the Cubs want to lose games if the plan is to get the number one draft pick next year. Hoyer and Epstein are always telling the media that they are looking for loopholes in order to leverage an advantage; by agreeing to take a win from their record by breaking the rules is clearly a strange way to meet their plan objectives. It is also a major middle finger to the fans, especially those who left Wrigley thinking they saw a victory. No fan wants their team to lose on purpose, let alone break the rules in order to lose.
The strained explanation by the league:
Major League Baseball announced today that Executive Vice President for Baseball Operations Joe Torre has upheld a protest filed by the San Francisco Giants regarding the calling of their rain-shortened game against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on Tuesday night.
An examination of the circumstances of last night’s game has led to the determination that there was sufficient cause to believe that there was a “malfunction of a mechanical field device under control of the home club” within the meaning of Official Baseball Rule 4.12(a)(3). Available video of the incident, and conversations with representatives of the Cubs, demonstrate that the Cubs’ inability to deploy the tarp appropriately was caused by the failure to properly wrap and spool the tarp after its last use. As a result, the groundskeeping crew was unable to properly deploy the tarp after the rain worsened. In accordance with Rule 4.12(a)(3), the game should be considered a suspended game that must be completed at a future date.
In addition, Major League Baseball has spoken with last night’s crew chief, Hunter Wendelstedt, and has concluded that the grounds crew worked diligently in its attempt to comply with his direction and cover the field. Thus, there is no basis for the game to be forfeited by the Cubs pursuant to Rule 4.16.
Who in their right mind was calling for a forfeit? The Giants were looking for a suspended game.
Apparently, it was the information provided by the Cubs that the team failed to deploy the tarp "appropriately" because it was not properly rolled up after the last use? It is a tarp that is on a roll.
It is not rocket science. And if the grounds crew worked "diligently" to cover the field to avoid a forfeit, then that same finding would have negated the ruling on suspending the game.
December 2, 2013
ONE SLIPPED BY THE CRACKS
As teams dropped and rotated players on their protected roster prior to the Winter Meetings, there was some interest in a San Diego pitcher that may have been left unprotected by some Cub fans. However, with the move to acquire a catcher from the Royals, the Cubs 40 man roster was filled at about the time the Padres waived LHP Jose De Paula.
The Giants have claimed De Paula off outright waivers from the Padres and added him to their 40 man roster.
In his first season at the Double-A level, De Paula posted a 3.86 ERA with 6.9 K/9 and 1.3 BB/9 across 14 starts.
It is kind of surprising that the Cubs did not put in a claim for this pitcher, considering Hoyer's knowledge of the Padre system.
The Giants have claimed De Paula off outright waivers from the Padres and added him to their 40 man roster.
In his first season at the Double-A level, De Paula posted a 3.86 ERA with 6.9 K/9 and 1.3 BB/9 across 14 starts.
It is kind of surprising that the Cubs did not put in a claim for this pitcher, considering Hoyer's knowledge of the Padre system.
July 30, 2013
NEW SELLERS
The trade deadline market may change dramatically if the Phillies decide to unload to rebuild. Players like Cliff Lee, Michael Young, Jimmy Rollins, Ben Revere, Delmon Young or Chase Utley could suddenly be on the market at a talent level higher than the players the Cubs are willing to trade. Likewise, the White Sox have more valuable assets in Alex Rios, Jesse Crain or any young pitcher than the Cubs have to offer.
When a team has been competitive for a while like the Phils, when the veteran team runs out of gas (age, injury, free agency, etc) it is usually sudden and unexpected. High payroll teams have high expectations.So when the Phils are 49-56 and in 3rd place in the NL East with a player average age of more than 29, losing may happen sooner than later. Last year the Phils were 81-81.
The question is whether the Phils believe ace Roy Halliday will come back strong in 2014. If not, then the flood gates could open for trades.
By comparison, who has more value to a contending team?
Cliff Lee or Carlos Villanbuena?
Michael Young or Luis Valbuena?
Jimmy Rollins or Starlin Castro (if he was available)?
Chase Utley or Darwin Barney?
Ben Revere or David DeJesus?
Delmon Young or Nate Schierholtz?
Now add the Giants to the mix of New Sellers. MLBTR reports the Giants will entertain trade offers for veterans including potential free agents Tim Lincecum, Hunter Pence, and Javier Lopez. This adds pressure on the Cubs to up the asset sales, too. Numerous reports now have teams asking about Jeff Samardzija, who is under team control for another two seasons. But the asking price has been extremely high from the Cubs side, as expected.
Most likely, an objective GM would pick the Phillie or Giant over the Cub. The only difference would be the price for the talent. By eating salary, a new club could take on a Phillie veteran and give up low minor prospects in return, which would be on par with any Cub deal for a lesser player.
When a team has been competitive for a while like the Phils, when the veteran team runs out of gas (age, injury, free agency, etc) it is usually sudden and unexpected. High payroll teams have high expectations.So when the Phils are 49-56 and in 3rd place in the NL East with a player average age of more than 29, losing may happen sooner than later. Last year the Phils were 81-81.
The question is whether the Phils believe ace Roy Halliday will come back strong in 2014. If not, then the flood gates could open for trades.
By comparison, who has more value to a contending team?
Cliff Lee or Carlos Villanbuena?
Michael Young or Luis Valbuena?
Jimmy Rollins or Starlin Castro (if he was available)?
Chase Utley or Darwin Barney?
Ben Revere or David DeJesus?
Delmon Young or Nate Schierholtz?
Now add the Giants to the mix of New Sellers. MLBTR reports the Giants will entertain trade offers for veterans including potential free agents Tim Lincecum, Hunter Pence, and Javier Lopez. This adds pressure on the Cubs to up the asset sales, too. Numerous reports now have teams asking about Jeff Samardzija, who is under team control for another two seasons. But the asking price has been extremely high from the Cubs side, as expected.
Most likely, an objective GM would pick the Phillie or Giant over the Cub. The only difference would be the price for the talent. By eating salary, a new club could take on a Phillie veteran and give up low minor prospects in return, which would be on par with any Cub deal for a lesser player.
July 18, 2013
WHITE FLAG TRADE
There was nothing more rebellious than White Sox fans in 1997 when their team decided to trade away valuable players when the Sox were only 3.5 games out of first place. It was called "The White Flag Trade."
It was made on July 31, 1997. The White Sox traded three major league players (LHP Wilson Alvarez, RHP Danny Darwin, and RHP Roberto Hernandez) to the Giants for six minor league players (RHP Keith Foulke, RHP Bog Howry, and four other players who had no career impact).
The ramification of the trade was immediate. White Sox fans were angry that ownership gave up the season at the trade deadline. The Giants would go on to win the NL West, but lose to eventual World Series champion Marlins in the NL Series. The White Sox only finished 6 games behind the Indians.
Three years later, in 2000, the White Sox won the American League Central with a league-best record of 95-67. They made the playoffs but were swept in the division series by the Mariners. However, Foulke and Howry were a large part of theWhite Sox successful playoff season, with Foulke earning 34 saves in his role as closer.
The White Sox cannot be criticized for dismantling this year's team. The Sox are a major disappointment. At 37-55 and in last place in the AL Central, the team with the 10th highest payroll is floundering against higher expectations. They had finished second last season with 85 wins.
The Sox have few trading chips. Starter Chris Sale dominated his two innings in the All Star game. He is a building block for the future so he won't be trade bait. The two best chips the Sox have are on the disabled list: starter Jake Peavey and reliever Jesse Crain. Pitching has been the team's best performance this year. Reports have the front office underwhelmed by offers on OF Alex Rios, the team's most consistent hitter.
All factors point to the White Sox being a non-factor at the trade deadline. The Sox would like to pull off a big multiple player deal to restock their roster with younger players, but there are no takers for their underperforming major league players.
It was made on July 31, 1997. The White Sox traded three major league players (LHP Wilson Alvarez, RHP Danny Darwin, and RHP Roberto Hernandez) to the Giants for six minor league players (RHP Keith Foulke, RHP Bog Howry, and four other players who had no career impact).
The ramification of the trade was immediate. White Sox fans were angry that ownership gave up the season at the trade deadline. The Giants would go on to win the NL West, but lose to eventual World Series champion Marlins in the NL Series. The White Sox only finished 6 games behind the Indians.
Three years later, in 2000, the White Sox won the American League Central with a league-best record of 95-67. They made the playoffs but were swept in the division series by the Mariners. However, Foulke and Howry were a large part of theWhite Sox successful playoff season, with Foulke earning 34 saves in his role as closer.
The White Sox cannot be criticized for dismantling this year's team. The Sox are a major disappointment. At 37-55 and in last place in the AL Central, the team with the 10th highest payroll is floundering against higher expectations. They had finished second last season with 85 wins.
The Sox have few trading chips. Starter Chris Sale dominated his two innings in the All Star game. He is a building block for the future so he won't be trade bait. The two best chips the Sox have are on the disabled list: starter Jake Peavey and reliever Jesse Crain. Pitching has been the team's best performance this year. Reports have the front office underwhelmed by offers on OF Alex Rios, the team's most consistent hitter.
All factors point to the White Sox being a non-factor at the trade deadline. The Sox would like to pull off a big multiple player deal to restock their roster with younger players, but there are no takers for their underperforming major league players.
February 25, 2013
EXCELLENT COLUMN
There is an excellent column by writer Bruce Jenkins in today's SF Chronicle.
Jenkins makes a valid point on how relatively small market teams like the A's and Giants can be competitive without overspending or mortgaging their futures.
He calls it "baseball intelligence." We have commented in the past on player's having a "baseball IQ." i.e. inherently knowing what to do in a given situation and/or anticipating the situation to make the appropriate play. Players will raw talent and skills may still lack the baseball field intelligence to utility those skills to their maximum potential.
Jenkins takes that requirement to the front office. Some teams have more organizational "baseball intelligence" than other teams. He states that "the game's most essential truths: that scouting, character and basic instincts are the tools that build a winner."
Both teams have built winners. The Giants rely upon scouting and field observations more than computer sabermetrics to build their roster. The A's pioneered the mathematical approach to player evaluations. Both systems can work.
Jenkins makes a valid point on how relatively small market teams like the A's and Giants can be competitive without overspending or mortgaging their futures.
He calls it "baseball intelligence." We have commented in the past on player's having a "baseball IQ." i.e. inherently knowing what to do in a given situation and/or anticipating the situation to make the appropriate play. Players will raw talent and skills may still lack the baseball field intelligence to utility those skills to their maximum potential.
Jenkins takes that requirement to the front office. Some teams have more organizational "baseball intelligence" than other teams. He states that "the game's most essential truths: that scouting, character and basic instincts are the tools that build a winner."
Both teams have built winners. The Giants rely upon scouting and field observations more than computer sabermetrics to build their roster. The A's pioneered the mathematical approach to player evaluations. Both systems can work.
November 16, 2012
WAR ON STATS
A favorite stat for people to debate the value of baseball players is WAR. WAR stands for Wins Above Replacement. A player's WAR number is supposed to represent the number of team wins the player has added to the team total above that of a AAA-AAAA replacement player. The calculation includes factors for defensive support and value for high leverage or more difficult positions and situations.
The components in the WAR calculation track how much above "average" a player was during a season. But the WAR number itself is Wins Above Replacement. It has been said that the difference between an average player and a replacement level player is about 20 runs during a full season. The runs-to-wins is put through a conversion formula (typically, 10 runs equals 1 win).
This is fine to attempt the judge the value of individual players in an average talent pool. But baseball is still a team sport relying upon individuals to get wins.
Which led me to check on the 2012 season from a team perspective.
The San Francisco Giants won the World Series. The regular season record was 94-68. If you total up all the hitting and pitching player WAR numbers you will find:
28.9 hitter WAR + 5.5 pitcher WAR = 34.4 team WAR.
Then the question, what is an "average" baseball team? In a 162 game season, it is simple. A team that goes .500 (81-81) is average. Two teams ended 2012 at .500: Arizona and Philadelphia.
The Diamondbacks season record was 81-81. If you total up all the hitting and pitching player WAR numbers you will find:
17.7 hitter WAR + 13.3 pitcher WAR = 31.0 team WAR.
The Phils also finished the season 81-81. If you total up all the hitting and pitching player WAR numbers you will find:
15.0 hitter WAR + 10.8 pitcher WAR = 25.8 team WAR.
If we compare the World Series champion Giants to the Diamondbacks and Phils team WARS, the Giants team was +3.4 WAR better than Arizona and +8.6 WAR better than Philadelphia.
Since we have "two" average teams, if we average the team WARs (56.8/2) the average team WAR is 28.4. If you compare the average team WAR of 28.4 to the Giants team 34.4, one can calculate that the Giants as a team were 21 percent better than an average major league team in 2012.
If you compare that to victories, the Giants were +13, or 16 percent above an average .500 team.
Now for the other end of the standings.
The Chicago Cubs had a bad rebuilding season. The team 2012 record was 61-101. If you total up all the hitting and pitching player WAR numbers for the Cubs you will find:
11.8 hitter WAR + (0.1) pitcher WAR = 11.7 team WAR.
If you compare the Cubs team WAR of 11.7 to the Giants team WAR of 34.4, the Cubs are -22.7 WAR. That means the Cubs were 66 percent worse than the Giants.
If you compare the Cubs team WAR of 11.7 to the average .500 club WAR of 28.4 WAR, the Cubs are -16.7. That means the Cubs were 58.8 percent worse than an average team in 2012.
So how far are the Cubs away from being a competitive ball club?
The WAR scale for players indicates that one who is 8.0 WAR plus is an MVP type player; 5.0 WAR plus is an All-Star caliber player; 2.0 WAR plus is a starter; 0-2 WAR is a bench player; and below 0 is replacement level.
The highest WAR player on the roster is Darwin Barney at 4.6, then Starlin Castro at 3.5, then Ryan Dempster at 3.3 (who is no longer on the team) and then Anthony Rizzo at 2.2. Barney's WAR has to be skewed by his defense error less streak. Even so, based on the WAR player scale, the Cubs only have three starters on their 25 man roster, and not one is of All-Star caliber.
In order for the Cubs to competitive, the team needs double digit WAR numbers for hitting and pitching. The team needs to add 11 players of 2.0 WAR and above (6 fielders and 5 starters) just to become an average team in 2013.
The components in the WAR calculation track how much above "average" a player was during a season. But the WAR number itself is Wins Above Replacement. It has been said that the difference between an average player and a replacement level player is about 20 runs during a full season. The runs-to-wins is put through a conversion formula (typically, 10 runs equals 1 win).
This is fine to attempt the judge the value of individual players in an average talent pool. But baseball is still a team sport relying upon individuals to get wins.
Which led me to check on the 2012 season from a team perspective.
The San Francisco Giants won the World Series. The regular season record was 94-68. If you total up all the hitting and pitching player WAR numbers you will find:
28.9 hitter WAR + 5.5 pitcher WAR = 34.4 team WAR.
Then the question, what is an "average" baseball team? In a 162 game season, it is simple. A team that goes .500 (81-81) is average. Two teams ended 2012 at .500: Arizona and Philadelphia.
The Diamondbacks season record was 81-81. If you total up all the hitting and pitching player WAR numbers you will find:
17.7 hitter WAR + 13.3 pitcher WAR = 31.0 team WAR.
The Phils also finished the season 81-81. If you total up all the hitting and pitching player WAR numbers you will find:
15.0 hitter WAR + 10.8 pitcher WAR = 25.8 team WAR.
If we compare the World Series champion Giants to the Diamondbacks and Phils team WARS, the Giants team was +3.4 WAR better than Arizona and +8.6 WAR better than Philadelphia.
Since we have "two" average teams, if we average the team WARs (56.8/2) the average team WAR is 28.4. If you compare the average team WAR of 28.4 to the Giants team 34.4, one can calculate that the Giants as a team were 21 percent better than an average major league team in 2012.
If you compare that to victories, the Giants were +13, or 16 percent above an average .500 team.
Now for the other end of the standings.
The Chicago Cubs had a bad rebuilding season. The team 2012 record was 61-101. If you total up all the hitting and pitching player WAR numbers for the Cubs you will find:
11.8 hitter WAR + (0.1) pitcher WAR = 11.7 team WAR.
If you compare the Cubs team WAR of 11.7 to the Giants team WAR of 34.4, the Cubs are -22.7 WAR. That means the Cubs were 66 percent worse than the Giants.
If you compare the Cubs team WAR of 11.7 to the average .500 club WAR of 28.4 WAR, the Cubs are -16.7. That means the Cubs were 58.8 percent worse than an average team in 2012.
So how far are the Cubs away from being a competitive ball club?
The WAR scale for players indicates that one who is 8.0 WAR plus is an MVP type player; 5.0 WAR plus is an All-Star caliber player; 2.0 WAR plus is a starter; 0-2 WAR is a bench player; and below 0 is replacement level.
The highest WAR player on the roster is Darwin Barney at 4.6, then Starlin Castro at 3.5, then Ryan Dempster at 3.3 (who is no longer on the team) and then Anthony Rizzo at 2.2. Barney's WAR has to be skewed by his defense error less streak. Even so, based on the WAR player scale, the Cubs only have three starters on their 25 man roster, and not one is of All-Star caliber.
In order for the Cubs to competitive, the team needs double digit WAR numbers for hitting and pitching. The team needs to add 11 players of 2.0 WAR and above (6 fielders and 5 starters) just to become an average team in 2013.
May 5, 2012
WHOSE ON THIRD?
There is a sudden demand for major league third basemen. ESPN's Jason Stark reports that the Rays and the Giants are looking for third basemen to replace injured stars Evan Longoria and Pablo Sandoval. Stark states that he believes the Rays are looking for more of a utility player they can use after Longoria returns. Also, the Phillies are in the market to replace Placido Polanco, who is at the end of his career.
A few names in the discount trade bin are Baltimore's Mark Reynolds, a power hitting strike out machine, and Minnesota's Danny Valencia.
This early in the season, teams with major injuries are not necessarily looking to permanently replace their fallen stars, but pick up salvageable journeymen who can plug the gap until the return of the regular.
Again, this type of news should have the Cubs GM Hoyer on the horn to make deals for prospects or other major leaguers to fill the holes in the current North Side roster.
Example, who would have thought that ex-Cardinal Joe Mather would have more HRs than ex-Cardinal Albert Pujols? Mather's stock is peaking right now. He can play LF, RF, 3B and 1B. But on most teams, including the Cubs, he is the 4th outfielder. Mather would be a good bargaining chip in a trade right now, especially to the Rays who are looking for a multi-positional player in return.
Blake DeWitt also fills that utility role. He can play third, second and outfield. And he is a left handed bat.
Jeff Baker is the same type player, only he bats from the right side. Ian Stewart has been a disappointment at third for the Cubs. He lacks the power and average that was promised when the Cubs got him from the Rockies. Stewart is not the Cubs long term answer at third. The Cubs have a roster loaded with utility journeymen candidates. Since the Cubs are going no where but hovering around the cellar this season, there is no reason to hang on to these players who are not important foundational pieces in the rebuilding for 2014.
A few names in the discount trade bin are Baltimore's Mark Reynolds, a power hitting strike out machine, and Minnesota's Danny Valencia.
This early in the season, teams with major injuries are not necessarily looking to permanently replace their fallen stars, but pick up salvageable journeymen who can plug the gap until the return of the regular.
Again, this type of news should have the Cubs GM Hoyer on the horn to make deals for prospects or other major leaguers to fill the holes in the current North Side roster.
Example, who would have thought that ex-Cardinal Joe Mather would have more HRs than ex-Cardinal Albert Pujols? Mather's stock is peaking right now. He can play LF, RF, 3B and 1B. But on most teams, including the Cubs, he is the 4th outfielder. Mather would be a good bargaining chip in a trade right now, especially to the Rays who are looking for a multi-positional player in return.
Blake DeWitt also fills that utility role. He can play third, second and outfield. And he is a left handed bat.
Jeff Baker is the same type player, only he bats from the right side. Ian Stewart has been a disappointment at third for the Cubs. He lacks the power and average that was promised when the Cubs got him from the Rockies. Stewart is not the Cubs long term answer at third. The Cubs have a roster loaded with utility journeymen candidates. Since the Cubs are going no where but hovering around the cellar this season, there is no reason to hang on to these players who are not important foundational pieces in the rebuilding for 2014.
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