DODGING A BULLET

Sometimes, the best move is not to make a move.

As Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports writes, one of the biggest spring training stories is the one about the "hottest" can't miss free agent to hit the market being a gigantic disappointment.

"Shohei Otani did not have a “great outing” in his final start of the preseason,  unless the definition of great outing has changed since the calendar turned. One official who saw it summed it up as: “He looked pretty much like he’s looked all spring.” The struggles of Otani since he arrived stateside have been glaring. There are plenty of ways to describe his lack of fastball velocity and difficulty commanding the pitch Saturday against a coterie of minor leaguers. * * * *  Lost amid the fact that (he) looks helpless at the plate (3 for 28 in games) and talented but raw on the mound (more runs allowed than outs registered) is that he remains an incredible talent who is under team control for the next six years  at enormously depressed prices."

Gone are the Babe Ruth, two-way player, comparisons.

Otani may turn it around . He could be just having culture shock. Or he has to get up to speed to MLB players and coaching styles. 

But it is hard to believe the observations in spring training were so far off from the glowing scouting reports that had all teams, especially Theo Epstein, wanting to sign this guy.

Lack of velocity on his fastball . . . . bad sign.

Lack of command on his pitches . . . really bad sign.

Looks hopeless at the plate . . .  horrible.

Just think that if the Cubs had signed Otani, there would have been no money left to sign Darvish. And Otani would have been like Jason Heyward, a big money contract that has to play some outfield. That would have pushed Ian Happ to AAA Iowa at the start of the season. It would have been a cascade of failure.

THE NEW WORLD INTERVIEW

The Otani Sweepstakes got complicated as MLB nears to the actual start line for the posting of the Japanese star.

USA Today reports:

Ohtani's agent, Nez Balelo, asked teams not to submit financial terms. More significantly, restrictions on international signings will limit Ohtani's bonus to a maximum of about $3.5 million, depending on the club he chooses, and allow him to sign only a minor-league deal.

That makes him affordable to all teams, although they would also have to put up a posting fee of $20 million for the right to negotiate with him.


The letter asks the teams to provide information, in English and Japanese, on matters such as their player-development and medical staffs, their facilities, resources to ease Otani's assimilation and the desirability of the franchise, city and marketplace. It also requests the clubs' evaluation of Otani as a hitter and/or pitcher.

For all MLB teams, including the Cubs, landing Otani would be a coup. However, even though the agent is not saying money is not an issue (at this point), the final decision will be based on money.

The Cubs have had Japanese players on the team before, their performances did not reach expectations. There were never any reports of issues in communication between player and coaches. Chicago is an international city so the culture shock would be less. 

The issue of player development is interesting. It may be code for a "winning tradition" or the ability to win a championship now. The Cubs have recently been able to develop young hitters, but current management has a horrible record developing pitchers.

The medical staff issue is also interesting.  Most players do not have a concern about medical and training staffs because it is believed that all clubs have the same quality personnel. But maybe Otani's own medical history and/or how he treats his body with alternative medicine principles could be an issue for an American team.

The resources required to bring Otani into the clubhouse, city and American culture would include a translator, tutor and/or roommate who can guide the foreigner through the nuances of American baseball-celebrity life. Otani is only 23. He is young, but most reports indicate that he is mature for his age. But this would be his first time away from his native country. There needs to be a strong support system to avoid him becoming home sick which could lead to performance issues. One strong MLB team with connections to Japan is the Mariners, who are building resources to try to sign Otani. Seattle has a large Asian community and is closer to Japan than Midwest and East Coast teams.

The desirability of the franchise means the ability to win championships and to have a national presence (for endorsements). The Cubs, Yankees, Dodgers and Red Sox would be the top tier national franchises. Again, a team like the Mariners would immediately make Otani the face of their franchise.

All MLB scouts rate Otani above average as a pitcher and hitter. The consensus is that he is a four-pitch #1 starter as a pitcher and a potential 35 HR corner outfielder. Otani wants to be a two way player (the first full timer since Babe Ruth). In most people's minds, that means that an American league team would be the most likely landing spot since Otani could DH when not pitching. But if Otani wants to play in the outfield, then that makes an NL team a possibility. Most 90 percent of all teams do not want to risk injury for a "gimmick" player - - -  if Otani's value is as a #1 ace, then his pitching routine, rest between starts and ability to throw take absolute precedence over playing in the field. 

For the Cubs to accommodate Otani's request, the team would have to get rid of one or two outfielders (Schwarber, Almora or Happ).   The Cubs have been unwilling to entertain any serious offers for any of these young players. And it would be risky to trade one of them on the unknown of whether Otani can adapt as a hitter to American pitchers.

 The Cubs are probably near the bottom of potential Otani suitors (even though there are media reports that the Cubs are trying very hard to sign him.) The Cubs can only offer him 1/10th of the potential signing bonus ($300,000) and pay him the minimum ($545,000) for two years. Otani and his agent are not going to walk away from $3 million from another club who can make the same accommodations outlined in the agent's letter.

SALARY SUSHI

Several teams including the Mariners and Yankees are adding international signing bonus pool money to go after Japanese two-position star, Shohei Otani.

MLB, the players union and Japanese baseball have a tentative agreement for a "posting" fee. That means teams must post an amount of money with the Japanese club to negotiate a deal with Otani. If Ontani signs with a MLB club, the posting fee (approx. $20 million) goes to his Japanese club as a transfer fee.

Why teams are collecting additional international signing bonus money is simple. Under baseball’s new collective bargaining agreement, the 23-year-old Otani can only agree to a minor league contract that is subject to signing bonus pools. If added to a big league roster, he would have a salary for about the minimum $545,000 next season and not be eligible for salary arbitration until 2020 at the earliest.
If he waits until he is 25 to enter MLB, there would be no restrictions and he likely would get a deal for more than $100 million. MLB has warned of severe penalties if a team attempts to sign Otani to a secret long-term contract, then announce it in future years.

The current amounts teams can pay over a million dollars is small. Both the Yankees and Mariners have made post-season trades to acquire additional bonus money,

Texas Rangers — $3,535,000
New York Yankees — $3,250,000
Minnesota Twins - - -$3,245,000
Pittsburgh Pirates — $2,266,750
Miami Marlins — $1,740,000
Seattle Mariners — $1,570,500

In addition, Otani's current club will take 25 percent of any bonus allotment. So the real contenders for his services are down to the Rangers, Yankees and Twins, all clubs with the DH.

Otani wants to play both in the field and as a starting pitcher. Most teams balk at that notion, claiming that being a starting pitcher requires daily preparation including rest. He will only talk to teams that will assure he will be a two-way player.

The Mariners, being in the AL, think they can accommodate his demands. They can play him at DH, and in the outfield. The DH could save wear and tear and possible injury (example, Kyle Schwarber's knee injury).

Otani, who underwent surgery on his right ankle last month, is 42-15 with a 2.52 ERA in five seasons with the Sapporo-based Fighters in the Pacific League.

At the plate, he hit .286 with 296 hits, including 48 home runs, and 166 RBIs in 1,170 plate appearances, mostly as a designated hitter.

IMPORTED FROM JAPAN

The biggest baseball free agent may be the less known.

Shohei Otani is a pitcher-outfielder in Japan. At 23 years old, he is a major league talent.
In 5 pro seasons, he has hit .286 BA, 48 HR, 166 RBI and 13 SB. In 2016 he hit 22 HR in 104 games.
As a pitcher, he has a career 42-25 record, 2.52 ERA, 1.076 WHIP and 7 SHO. Last year he was limited in games played by a thigh injury.

But Otani and his team, the Nippon Ham Fighters, have agreed to post him for MLB.

The Associated Press has written that Texas, the New York Yankees and Minnesota can pay the most for Otani if Major League Baseball and its Japanese counterpart can agree to the outlines of a deal to keep the old posting system for this off-season.

The Rangers can agree to a maximum $3,535,000 signing bonus from their pool that covers July 2 through next June 15, according to figures compiled by Major League Baseball and obtained by The Associated Press. New York can pay $3.25 million and the Twins $3,245,000.

Just three other teams can give him a seven-figure signing bonus: Pittsburgh ($2,266,750), Miami ($1.74 million) and Seattle ($1,570,500).

After that comes Philadelphia ($900,000), Milwaukee ($765,000), Arizona ($731,250), Baltimore ($660,000), Boston ($462,000) and Tampa Bay ($440,500).

Twelve teams are capped at $300,000 as penalties for exceeding their signing bonus pool under baseball's previous collective bargaining agreement, which did not have a cap: Atlanta, the Chicago Cubs and White Sox, Cincinnati, Houston, Kansas City, the Los Angeles Dodgers, Oakland, St. Louis, San Diego, San Francisco and Washington.

Other clubs have even less available: Detroit ($159,500), the Los Angeles Angels ($150,000), the New York Mets ($105,000), Toronto ($50,000), and Cleveland and Colorado ($10,000 apiece).
Each team started with a pool of $4.75 million, $5.25 million or $5.75 million, and amounts could be traded. Most of the pool money already has been spent on Latin American prospects.

Under baseball's new collective bargaining agreement, the 23-year-old Otani can only agree to a minor league contract that is subject to signing bonus pools. If added to a big league roster, he would have a salary for about the minimum $545,000 next season and not be eligible for salary arbitration until 2020 at the earliest.

If he waits until he is 25 to enter MLB, there would be no restrictions and he likely would get a deal for more than $100 million. MLB has warned of severe penalties if a team attempts to sign Otani to a secret long-term contract, then announce it in future years.