DODGING A BULLET

Sometimes, the best move is not to make a move.

As Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports writes, one of the biggest spring training stories is the one about the "hottest" can't miss free agent to hit the market being a gigantic disappointment.

"Shohei Otani did not have a “great outing” in his final start of the preseason,  unless the definition of great outing has changed since the calendar turned. One official who saw it summed it up as: “He looked pretty much like he’s looked all spring.” The struggles of Otani since he arrived stateside have been glaring. There are plenty of ways to describe his lack of fastball velocity and difficulty commanding the pitch Saturday against a coterie of minor leaguers. * * * *  Lost amid the fact that (he) looks helpless at the plate (3 for 28 in games) and talented but raw on the mound (more runs allowed than outs registered) is that he remains an incredible talent who is under team control for the next six years  at enormously depressed prices."

Gone are the Babe Ruth, two-way player, comparisons.

Otani may turn it around . He could be just having culture shock. Or he has to get up to speed to MLB players and coaching styles. 

But it is hard to believe the observations in spring training were so far off from the glowing scouting reports that had all teams, especially Theo Epstein, wanting to sign this guy.

Lack of velocity on his fastball . . . . bad sign.

Lack of command on his pitches . . . really bad sign.

Looks hopeless at the plate . . .  horrible.

Just think that if the Cubs had signed Otani, there would have been no money left to sign Darvish. And Otani would have been like Jason Heyward, a big money contract that has to play some outfield. That would have pushed Ian Happ to AAA Iowa at the start of the season. It would have been a cascade of failure.

THE SILLY SEASON

The silly season of writer speculation is upon us.  A blogger just posted a fantasy piece about the Angels Mike Trout, the consensus pick of the best baseball player in the game.

He wrote that if the Angels would trade Trout, there is only one team that could acquire him: the Cubs.

He thought a package of Kyle Schwarber, Javier Baez, Albert Almora, Jeimer Candelario, Mark Zagunis, Ian Happ and Miguel Montero could get the Angels to make the deal.

Of the list of Cub players, maybe two are even in the trade asset column: Candelario because he is blocked at third by Bryant, and Montero who is a the end of his unhappy but expensive contract.

The Cubs have made it clear that their love for Schwarber is unconditional. His work ethic may surprise people to the point of being able to catch again. Otherwise, he is doomed to be designated as a professional DH.

Baez is the supersub Joe Maddon needs to juggle his lineup. But many fans now realize that Baez success means that he will demand more playing time, which could affect Zobrist or Soler's plate appearances. Almora is poised to take Fowler's CF job. As a top draft pick, the front office is not going to give away "one of their guys." Happ is another one of those "pure" hitters the Cubs have drafted in recent years. He can play 2B-OF. Zagunis is a AAA outfielder who is in line to probably replace Coghlan.

Trout has monster production: 29 HR, 100 RBI, .315 BA, 10.6 WAR. He is on the easy path to the Hall of Fame. And he is only 25 years old.

The hot stove winter is mainly about these type of stories. The bar talk about moves your favorite team should make in order to win next season's championship. The Cubs are in a strange position this off-season. They already have the pieces to win next season's championship.

A SECOND LIGHTNING ROD

If Major League Baseball had a big enough headache with Alex Rodriguez's return to the Yankees, the Josh Hamilton saga gets even more down the rabbit hole.

Hamilton has had his personal demons that have been documented in his minor league transgressions. During the spring, there was an alleged relapse. MLB wanted to suspend Hamilton under its substance abuse policy, but Hamilton and the union objected to any punishment, citing that Hamilton would have been a first timer under the major league CBA.

Hamilton avoided suspension after an arbitrator sided with him over Major League Baseball. His Angel teammates are waiting for his return, but during the home opener, Hamilton had no locker.

Angels owner Arte Moreno is upset with Hamilton. Moreno cited a provision in Hamilton's Angels contract that gave the club special remedies against any relapse. Since those type of contract provisions are not allowed under the CBA, the players union is quite upset with the Angel's owner.

Local reports indicate that  it’s a really ugly situation on a number of different levels that’s being made worse and worse by Moreno every time he opens his mouth. The entire Angels organization is handling this as poorly as possible in terms of public relations, managing the clubhouse, and - most importantly - treatment of people. It is clear that the Angels probably want to void Hamilton's deal, or the very least, not allow him to play for the Angels. This is the corner that the Yankees were pinned in all of last year with A-Rod.  But Rodriguez demanded his comeback and the team honoring his contract, which has a $6 million payment the next time A-Rod hits a HR. The Yankees will loathe writing that check.

But since teams cannot put in their own "morals" clauses into player contracts, the Angels are stuck with an underperforming, highly paid, broken down outfielder who has zero trade value.

THIS MAKES NO SENSE

The Angels have traded 1B Matthew Scioscia  (Mike's son) to the Cubs for OF Trevor Gretzky  (Wayne's son), Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports. Scioscia, 25, hit .194/.248/.224 in three minor-league levels last year. The 21-year-old Gretzky, a seventh-round pick in 2011, hit .274/.300/.333 in the low minors in 2013.

The Cubs give up a prospect four years younger than a failed prospect who hit .194 with no power to play first base?

MARK UP THE MARK DOWN

I have heard of former players coming down from the broadcast booth to coach a team,
but it is very rare for a former player turned TV analyst to return to the field of play,
especially after a long lay-off.

ESPN's Mark Mulder has agreed to a minor league deal with a big league invite with the Angels.  Fox Sports reports Mulder can earn more than $6MM if all incentives are met,The deal comes with a guaranteed $1MM base salary.

Mulder, 36, hasn't pitched since 2008 because of shoulder issues, and has been working as an analyst with ESPN since 2011.  Mulder began his comeback in Arizona in November and auditioned for the Giants, Diamondbacks, and numerous other clubs before reaching agreement with the Halos.  In nine seasons with the Athletics and Cardinals, Mulder owns a 4.18 ERA with 5.7 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9.

The Angels have been acquiring young starting pitching this off-season, so this move (a major roll of the dice) is uncharacteristic. Some may say it is a low risk move since it is only a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training, and most likely if Mulder doesn't make the 25 man roster he will go back into retirement. But still, his presence will take away innings from someone already in the Angels system who is trying to make the majors for the first time.

Five years without pitching is also going to be hard to overcome. Players are creatures of habit. With the salaries they have now, they train all year round to keep in the best shape possible. Spring training is not to get players "into shape," but to refine skills. Mulder has not had any competitive action for more than 5 years. That is a major hurdle on the come back trail.

It also signals to some that the quantity of starting pitching is thin. There are several starting pitchers who are still in the free agent pool. But teams are now more weary of losing a first round draft pick to sign one of them, unless they are truly ready to win right now. The Angels must question whether they can win the AL West after a disappointing 2013 campaign.
 

THE PRIZE

After a lot of internal angst and anger over the new posting fee system with MLB, Japanese right-hander Masahiro Tanaka, who went 24-0 with a 1.27 ERA and 183 strikeouts in 212 innings this past summer for the Rakuten Golden Eagles of Nippon Professional Baseball, was "posted" (free to negotiate with American teams) on Tuesday evening to pursue his dream of pitching at baseball's highest level.

Tanaka, 25, has impressive numbers in Japanese baseball. In 7 seasons as a starter, he has compiled a record in 175 games 99-35 (.739 win percentage), 2.30 ERA, 1.108 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 IP, 4.5 K/BB ratio.

His old team will receive $20 million posting fee if Tanaka signs with a MLB club.

Tanaka is expected to ask for approximately $100 million deal. This will blow past the record 6 year/$58 million contract with the Rangers (plus the $51.5 million post fee).

Darvish has been one of the few exceptions to the general rule in regard to Japanese baseball players coming over to make an impact in the game. Irchiro had a stellar career in the States, but it more often than not that pitchers tend to struggle unless they have major league power velocity.

The Cubs, Diamondbacks and Angels are rumored suitors for Tanaka, but do not count out the Yankees or Dodgers deep pockets from making a bid. 

The Cubs claim they will aggressively seek Tanaka, but every time they attempt a major signing during the rebuilding process, nothing came of it. The statement that the Cubs will bid on Tanaka is meaningless because one can submit a confidential low ball bid, then tell the fans later that it was not accepted. It is a weak attempt for positive winter PR.

Tanaka's U.S. agent also represents the Dodgers Kershaw and Greinke which leads some to speculate that LA will have an inside track on signing Tanaka.

NOT A GREAT MOVE

MLBTR pieces together the parts of a three team trade involving the White Sox.

The White Sox  received CF Adam Eaton from the Diamondbacks. Formerly one of baseball's top prospects, the 25-year-old Eaton missed more than half of the 2013 season after opening the year on the DL with a sprained ulnar collateral ligament in his left (throwing) elbow. In 380 career MLB plate apparances, Eaton is a .254/.332/.373 hitter with five homers and seven stolen bases. He's batted .365/.441/.522 with eight homers and 38 steals in 602 career appearances at the Triple-A level. Prior to the 2013 season, Baseball America ranked Eaton as Arizona's No. 4 prospect, noting that he'd made enough defensive strides to convince scouts that he is an everyday big league center fielder with double-digit home run pop, plus speed and a strong, accurate throwing arm. He is under team control  through the 2018 season.

The White Sox gave up LH starting pitcher Hector Santiago, who will join the Angels. Santiago, who turns 26 next week, has a career 3.41 ERA with 8.7 K/9, 4.5 BB/9 and a 37.5 percent ground-ball rate in 224 2/3 big league innings. He's not arbitration eligible until next winter and can be controlled through the 2017 campaign

The Diamondbacks will receive outfielder Mark Trumbo and right-hander A.J. Schugel from the Angels. Arizona will be looking for Trumbo's power to outweigh his shaky defense; he's belted 66 home runs over the past two seasons, posting a .250/.305/.471 batting line. While Trumbo's  walk rate climbed to a career-best eight percent in 2013, that's still below the league average, and it came along with a career-worst 27.1 percent strikeout rate. Trumbo hit 34 homers last season. Trumbo projects to earn $4.7MM via arbitration this offseason and can be controlled through the 2016 season.
Schugel dealt with blisters early in the season and saw a foot injury cut his season short in July after he posted a 7.05 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 89 1/3 innings at Triple-A Salt Lake. However, he posted a 2.89 ERA with 7.0 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in 140 innings at Double-A when he was healthy in 2012. Baseball America ranked Schugel 12th among Angels prospects prior to 2013, noting that a strong fastball/changeup combo should allow him to become a back-of-the-rotation starter despite a questionable breaking pitch. BA also noted that Schugel is an excellent athlete that fields his position well.

The Angels will also receive LH pitcher Tyler Skaggs.  Skaggs appeared in the Top 15 of BA's Top 100 list prior to the 2012 and 2013 seasons but has struggled in his brief big league experience to date. Still just 22, Skaggs has a 5.43 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and a 40 percent ground-ball rate in 68 Major League innings. He has a 4.02 ERA with 8.7 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 156 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level -- all of which have come with him being one of the league's youngest pitchers. Skaggs won't be eligible for arbitration until at least 2016 and can be controlled through the 2019 campaign if he's in the Majors from here on out.

Eaton has only played 88 games in two seasons. He has a .254 BA, 5 HR, 27 RBI and 0.7 WAR. In contrast, Santiago has played in 78 games, posted an 8-10 record, 3.41 ERA, 1.358 WHIP and 4.6 WAR. The White Sox are trading a replacement level player with "potential" for a young starting left handed pitcher. I don't it was a very good deal for the White Sox considering their are other center fielders on the market such as Denard Span, 29, who has a career 15.0 WAR over 6 seasons. Span is a more expensive alternative, but he has lead off potential with the ability to steal bases.