One word: Schwarber.
Of all the Cubs who may improve or flounder in their sophomore season, Kyle Schwarber is the one player that fills the entire spectrum of fan ecstasy to doubt. He is the key to the Cubs season.
He has the compact swing to make contact on any count and on any pitch. However, he only hit .246 last season. He is projected to have 294 AB, 16 HR, 47 RBI which is similar to his 2015 numbers. That may be fine for a bench player, but not a starter.
Schwarber appears to be Jason Hammel's personal catcher, by default. The Cubs are going to give Schwarber the opportunity to play the position he wants to play, catcher. So Schwarber will get 30 games behind the plate, or 40 AB.
Schwarber appears to be set for a platoon in LF with Jorge Soler. An even split would be 66 games or 264 AB.
Schwarber will DH in AL games so that may be another dozen or 48 AB.
That gets him up to 352 AB, or 19.7 % more AB than projected at Baseball Reference.
But it also shows that Schwarber, at best, will start in 98 games this season. Is that enough to get him into a steady rhythm and habit where he can maintain his batting concentration for a full season like he did in the minors?
And what happens when he gets into his first slump? Will Joe Maddon continue to play him, or with all the other options he has, does Maddon go with the "hot" hand. And in close games when defense is a premium, will Maddon defer to better defenders such as Ross, Montero or Szczur?
We hope that Schwarber has a break out year like Kris Bryant did in 2015 (.275 BA, 26 HR, 99 RBI).
The public knows the Cubs can be good, very good because they surprised the world last year. Most of the young Cubs still have not hit their professional ceiling (such as Addison Russell, who writers believe will have the break-out season). The Cubs have a lot of moving parts, and sometimes just one gear can gum up the entire machine.
Schwarber will still be the fan favorite because his hustle and his monster HRs. But there is going to be added pressure this year because the Cubs have made it clear that the catcher of the future is not Schwarber but Wilson Contreras, who will start in AAA Iowa.
Showing posts with label pennant. Show all posts
Showing posts with label pennant. Show all posts
April 4, 2016
June 5, 2015
COMEBACKS
Many sports talkers are saying that the White Sox season is over. Despite having the best off-season in memory, Chicago's slow start and inconsistency has doomed the season.
The White Sox sit in last place in the AL Central after 52 games (32% of the season).
The Sox record is 24-28 (.462) , 7.5 games behind the surprising first place Twins.
The Sox are 6.5 GB the Royals, 2.5 GB the Tigers and 1.5 GB the Indians.
The doom slayers may think the season is over, but clearly it is not.
In 1914, the Boston Braves were on July 6th 15 games out of first place but they came back to win the pennant. The most dramatic comeback in history was the 1951 New York Giants who trailed the Brooklyn Dodgers by 13.5 games on August 11th. The Giants made up all of that ground in just 45 games.
The Yankees greatest comeback to date was the 14 games they made up in 1978. They trailed by 14 on July 20th of that year, went into Fenway Park and destroyed the Red Sox, sweeping a 4 game series known now as "The Boston Massacre." That turnaround came to a conclusion with the one game playoff, which was the Bucky Dent dagger home run.
The 1995 Seattle Mariners also had a good comeback. They trailed the Angels by 13 games on August 3rd. They came back to win the division, but that one is more widely attributed to a California collapse. They simply stopped winning down the stretch.
The AL Central seems to be the most competitive division in baseball. That could work to the White Sox advantage, as each division team beats up on the others - - - giving the Sox a chance to make up ground with a long win streak or two. Chris Sale is a stopper. Jeff Samardzija has been terrible (giving up 16 runs in the first inning in his starts). He should have a better second half. And the Sox hitting should pick up to at least the averages on the backs of their baseball cards.
The White Sox sit in last place in the AL Central after 52 games (32% of the season).
The Sox record is 24-28 (.462) , 7.5 games behind the surprising first place Twins.
The Sox are 6.5 GB the Royals, 2.5 GB the Tigers and 1.5 GB the Indians.
The doom slayers may think the season is over, but clearly it is not.
In 1914, the Boston Braves were on July 6th 15 games out of first place but they came back to win the pennant. The most dramatic comeback in history was the 1951 New York Giants who trailed the Brooklyn Dodgers by 13.5 games on August 11th. The Giants made up all of that ground in just 45 games.
The Yankees greatest comeback to date was the 14 games they made up in 1978. They trailed by 14 on July 20th of that year, went into Fenway Park and destroyed the Red Sox, sweeping a 4 game series known now as "The Boston Massacre." That turnaround came to a conclusion with the one game playoff, which was the Bucky Dent dagger home run.
The 1995 Seattle Mariners also had a good comeback. They trailed the Angels by 13 games on August 3rd. They came back to win the division, but that one is more widely attributed to a California collapse. They simply stopped winning down the stretch.
The AL Central seems to be the most competitive division in baseball. That could work to the White Sox advantage, as each division team beats up on the others - - - giving the Sox a chance to make up ground with a long win streak or two. Chris Sale is a stopper. Jeff Samardzija has been terrible (giving up 16 runs in the first inning in his starts). He should have a better second half. And the Sox hitting should pick up to at least the averages on the backs of their baseball cards.
August 19, 2014
SIX WEEKS
There are about six weeks to go in the regular season.
This is home stretch for contending teams.
Six weeks usually means one thing: you better be within six games of first in order to have a realistic chance.
Managers know that it is very difficult to catch a divisional leader. The goal is to shave 1 game behind a week to close the gap. The exception to this rule is when you play a leader head-to-head then you can make up more ground. At this point, most divisional leaders do not melt down unless they are killed by major injuries, so the 1 game/week is a fairly reasonable standard.
With six weeks to go in the season, what teams still have a shot at winning a playoff berth?
The Yankees and Blue Jays are outside the threshold at 7 and 7.5 GB the Orioles.
The Tigers (1.5 GB) and Indians (6 GB) are behind the surprising Royals.
The A's and Angels are in a dead heat in the AL West with Seattle 5.5 GB.
The Nationals have widen to a 6 game lead over the Braves.
The Brewers have a 3 game lead on the Cardinals and 5.5 game lead on the Pirates.
And the Giants are 3.5 GB the Dodgers.
16 teams are still in the pennant chase.
By MLB having half the teams still in the hunt, interest in baseball should be strong until mid-September.
This is home stretch for contending teams.
Six weeks usually means one thing: you better be within six games of first in order to have a realistic chance.
Managers know that it is very difficult to catch a divisional leader. The goal is to shave 1 game behind a week to close the gap. The exception to this rule is when you play a leader head-to-head then you can make up more ground. At this point, most divisional leaders do not melt down unless they are killed by major injuries, so the 1 game/week is a fairly reasonable standard.
With six weeks to go in the season, what teams still have a shot at winning a playoff berth?
The Yankees and Blue Jays are outside the threshold at 7 and 7.5 GB the Orioles.
The Tigers (1.5 GB) and Indians (6 GB) are behind the surprising Royals.
The A's and Angels are in a dead heat in the AL West with Seattle 5.5 GB.
The Nationals have widen to a 6 game lead over the Braves.
The Brewers have a 3 game lead on the Cardinals and 5.5 game lead on the Pirates.
And the Giants are 3.5 GB the Dodgers.
16 teams are still in the pennant chase.
By MLB having half the teams still in the hunt, interest in baseball should be strong until mid-September.
September 30, 2013
PAYROLL TO PENNANT
There is an old saying that money can buy championships. But that is a myth, possibly born from the frustration of fans who think their team is not doing enough to win.
If one looks at the divisional winners, wild card teams and those just out of this year's races, we have a wide berth in salary, salary increase and making the playoffs. Per Cot's Baseball contracts:
Atlanta won the NL East. Its' payroll went down 3.7 percent to $90 million or approximately $3.1 million per player.
Boston won the AL East. Its' payroll went down 14 percent to $150 million or approximately $5 million per player.
Detroit won the AL Central. Its' payroll went up 11.5% to $148.3 million or approximately $5.7 million per player.
Los Angeles Dodgers won the NL West. Its' payroll jumped 128.6 percent to $223 million or approximately $7.2 million per player.
Oakland won the AL West. Its' payroll went up 14.8 percent to $61.9 million or approximately $2.1 million per player.
Cincinnati is in the playoffs. Its' payroll went up 25.4 percent to $110 million or approximately $4 million per player.
Cleveland made the playoffs. Its' payroll went up 16.6 percent to $77 million or approximately $2.5 million per player.
Pittsburgh made the playoffs. Its' payroll went up 28.6 percent to $66.8 million or approximately $2.2 million per player.
St. Louis is in the playoffs. Its' payroll went up 4.2 percent to $116.5 million or approximately $4 million per player.
Tampa Bay made the playoffs. Its' payroll went down 2.7 percent to $62 million or approximately $2.3 million per player.
Teams that were in contention like Kansas City had its payroll climb 26 percent to $81 million or approximately $3 million per player and Washington had its payroll increase 25 percent to $118 million or approximately $4 million per player.
The lowest 2013 payrolls were:
1. Houston $26 million
2. Miami $38 million
3. TAMPA $62 million
4. OAKLAND $62 million
5. PITTSBURGH $66.8 million
6. San Diego $68.3 million
7. Colorado $74.4 million
8. CLEVELAND $78 million
9. Kansas City $81 million
10. Minnesota $82 million
Forty (40) percent of the lowest payrolls made the playoffs this year.
Of the highest 2013 payrolls:
1. New York Yankees $228 million
2. LOS ANGELES DODGERS $223 million
3. Philadelphia $159.5 million
4. BOSTON $150.6 million
5. DETROIT $148.3 million
6. Los Angeles Angels $141 million
7. San Francisco $136.9 million
8. Toronto $127.7 million
9. Texas $125.3 million
10. Chicago White Sox $118.9 million
Only thirty (30) percent of the highest payrolls made the playoffs this year.
So there is truly no correlation to the total payroll of a team and winning pennants. The assumption has been a team with better players cost more money. But certain teams like Tampa, Oakland and Pittsburgh rely on younger (therefore cheaper) talent.
If one looks at the divisional winners, wild card teams and those just out of this year's races, we have a wide berth in salary, salary increase and making the playoffs. Per Cot's Baseball contracts:
Atlanta won the NL East. Its' payroll went down 3.7 percent to $90 million or approximately $3.1 million per player.
Boston won the AL East. Its' payroll went down 14 percent to $150 million or approximately $5 million per player.
Detroit won the AL Central. Its' payroll went up 11.5% to $148.3 million or approximately $5.7 million per player.
Los Angeles Dodgers won the NL West. Its' payroll jumped 128.6 percent to $223 million or approximately $7.2 million per player.
Oakland won the AL West. Its' payroll went up 14.8 percent to $61.9 million or approximately $2.1 million per player.
Cincinnati is in the playoffs. Its' payroll went up 25.4 percent to $110 million or approximately $4 million per player.
Cleveland made the playoffs. Its' payroll went up 16.6 percent to $77 million or approximately $2.5 million per player.
Pittsburgh made the playoffs. Its' payroll went up 28.6 percent to $66.8 million or approximately $2.2 million per player.
St. Louis is in the playoffs. Its' payroll went up 4.2 percent to $116.5 million or approximately $4 million per player.
Tampa Bay made the playoffs. Its' payroll went down 2.7 percent to $62 million or approximately $2.3 million per player.
Teams that were in contention like Kansas City had its payroll climb 26 percent to $81 million or approximately $3 million per player and Washington had its payroll increase 25 percent to $118 million or approximately $4 million per player.
The lowest 2013 payrolls were:
1. Houston $26 million
2. Miami $38 million
3. TAMPA $62 million
4. OAKLAND $62 million
5. PITTSBURGH $66.8 million
6. San Diego $68.3 million
7. Colorado $74.4 million
8. CLEVELAND $78 million
9. Kansas City $81 million
10. Minnesota $82 million
Forty (40) percent of the lowest payrolls made the playoffs this year.
Of the highest 2013 payrolls:
1. New York Yankees $228 million
2. LOS ANGELES DODGERS $223 million
3. Philadelphia $159.5 million
4. BOSTON $150.6 million
5. DETROIT $148.3 million
6. Los Angeles Angels $141 million
7. San Francisco $136.9 million
8. Toronto $127.7 million
9. Texas $125.3 million
10. Chicago White Sox $118.9 million
Only thirty (30) percent of the highest payrolls made the playoffs this year.
So there is truly no correlation to the total payroll of a team and winning pennants. The assumption has been a team with better players cost more money. But certain teams like Tampa, Oakland and Pittsburgh rely on younger (therefore cheaper) talent.
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