The 2020 season will be a grind. 60 games in 9 weeks plus 2 days. There will only be 5 days off.
Commentators have called this season a "sprint" to the finish. It is more like "sink or swim."
The general rule of thumb in pennant race is that a team is still in contention if the number of games behind is equal to or less than the number of weeks left in the season. The reason is simple: unless you are playing the divisional leader head to head, it is very difficult to gain ground or pass other division teams.
The schedule will be a pressure cooker. Teams are going to be playing an average of 6.6 games per week. That is about as bad as youth travel baseball clubs.
Each win or loss equals 3 regular season games.
A three game losing streak is equal to a 9 game losing streak. That is the magnitude of the season.
Each three game series is a playoff contest. You must win two of three in order to advance. That has to be the mindset. There needs to be a sense of urgency. There may be a 40 victory team this season (equal to 120 wins) and a 40 loss team (perhaps in the same division).
The microscope will be on everyone: the new managers trying to learn on the fly; established starters who cannot afford "slow" starts; and teams with high cost talent with no major revenue. Post-season or bust has never been more alarming than this year. As it stands today, starting pitchers are having a harder time getting into game shape than hitters.
And this assumes that the league will actually play a full season. Today, it was reported another 70,000 positive coronavirus tests in the US. The Toronto Blue Jays have been evicted from Canada. The plan to play in Pittsburgh was vetoed yesterday by the state. The Jays might as well change their name to the "Orphans."
With the new game rules and the condensed schedule, the 2020 season will have a big question mark in the history and record books. If a player hits .400, does it really count?
Showing posts with label schedule. Show all posts
Showing posts with label schedule. Show all posts
July 23, 2020
March 28, 2020
EU TU, SEASON?
As most of the world is in lock down, MLB, the union, players, agents and media pundits are kicking the can (the 2020 season) down the road.
The owners want the most games for the revenue.
The players want the most games for service time toward free agency.
The fans want the most games for enjoyment.
But how many games will constitute a valid season?
If the shutdown continues through May, is four months of games enough to have a legitimate champion? An 108 game schedule (2/3 season) seems reasonable.
But it gets tricky after that point.
How many is too little?
You have 30 teams, 15 per division. In a shortened season, would it not be prudent to keep the games within your league?
If so, each club has 14 opponents. You would think each owner would want at least one "home and home" series. Three games two times 14 equals 84 games. Is this the bare minimum?
What if it a shortened two game series per club? 56 games played seems awfully light.
Some would say 81 games, half of a regular season, is the cut off point. There is some speculation that a drawn out wave of coronavirus spread across the US could shut down travel and gatherings throughout the summer.
Some have proposed that you can fatten the number of games played by increasing doubleheaders. But even with expanded rosters, multiple double headers during a week will grind pitching staffs down to the bone. Is it worth the risk for the long term viability of the game?
These are important questions for baseball, but for also other industries trying to cope with the uncertainty of this situation. As we now know, baseball is not an essential service.
The owners want the most games for the revenue.
The players want the most games for service time toward free agency.
The fans want the most games for enjoyment.
But how many games will constitute a valid season?
If the shutdown continues through May, is four months of games enough to have a legitimate champion? An 108 game schedule (2/3 season) seems reasonable.
But it gets tricky after that point.
How many is too little?
You have 30 teams, 15 per division. In a shortened season, would it not be prudent to keep the games within your league?
If so, each club has 14 opponents. You would think each owner would want at least one "home and home" series. Three games two times 14 equals 84 games. Is this the bare minimum?
What if it a shortened two game series per club? 56 games played seems awfully light.
Some would say 81 games, half of a regular season, is the cut off point. There is some speculation that a drawn out wave of coronavirus spread across the US could shut down travel and gatherings throughout the summer.
Some have proposed that you can fatten the number of games played by increasing doubleheaders. But even with expanded rosters, multiple double headers during a week will grind pitching staffs down to the bone. Is it worth the risk for the long term viability of the game?
These are important questions for baseball, but for also other industries trying to cope with the uncertainty of this situation. As we now know, baseball is not an essential service.
March 17, 2020
BAD IDEAS
A writer at NBC sports has decided that whenever baseball returns in 2020, it should hold a March Madness bracket tournament instead of a shortened season.
This is what happens when sports talkers and writers have no sports to talk or write about.
His idea is a seeded tournament with the two pennant winners having a first round bye. Each round would be a 9 game series. Teams would move their way along to a World Series tandem.
The problem with this idea: it is crazy bad.
Owners will not want half their teams total 2020 revenue end with 9 games (or 4 home games at most). The players cannot pad their stats for the next contract if games played is only 9 in 2020.
Fans would not be happy with a "one and done" series.
The local television revenue would be zero since local broadcasters would be screwed over.
The owners will demand that no matter how many available dates, they will play 100, 75 or even 50 to crown pennant winners.
The lack of spring training is going to take a real bad toll on pitchers. The new (and stupid) three batter pitcher rule is going to cause more injuries, even in a short season. Bullpen arms are not based on full innings' workload. One relief pitcher throws an inning, he is usually not available for a couple of days.
2020 is going to have many issues but fundamentally changing the schedule is nonsense.
This is what happens when sports talkers and writers have no sports to talk or write about.
His idea is a seeded tournament with the two pennant winners having a first round bye. Each round would be a 9 game series. Teams would move their way along to a World Series tandem.
The problem with this idea: it is crazy bad.
Owners will not want half their teams total 2020 revenue end with 9 games (or 4 home games at most). The players cannot pad their stats for the next contract if games played is only 9 in 2020.
Fans would not be happy with a "one and done" series.
The local television revenue would be zero since local broadcasters would be screwed over.
The owners will demand that no matter how many available dates, they will play 100, 75 or even 50 to crown pennant winners.
The lack of spring training is going to take a real bad toll on pitchers. The new (and stupid) three batter pitcher rule is going to cause more injuries, even in a short season. Bullpen arms are not based on full innings' workload. One relief pitcher throws an inning, he is usually not available for a couple of days.
2020 is going to have many issues but fundamentally changing the schedule is nonsense.
September 1, 2017
DESPERATION?
The Cubs are at a season high 13 games above .500. But the Brewers are still only 3.5 GB.
For the second time this season, the Cubs are messing with Brewers in regard to playing a game.
First, the Cubs called a game for an alleged rain out on a day that it did not rain. It created a
doubleheader disadvantage for Milwaukee.
Now, the Cubs got a "one time exception" to the Friday night home game ban. The reason:
the Cubs are coming home from a night game in Pittsburgh. Well, the team knew that a year ago
and the Cubs set the start times for their home games - - - a year ago.
The Brewers wanted the day game to go on as scheduled. They appealed to the league office.
No action was taken.
The Cubs may be "tired" on the trip home (?) but it is September - - - you can have 40 men on your roster!
Being tired in September is a weak excuse.
You are the defending World Champs. Why pull bush league schedule changes against your closest rival?
Perhaps it is because the Ricketts are so invested in the new infrastructure that they are desperate for
post-season revenue - - - a lot of post season revenue. World Series type revenue.
Attendance has not been max this year. The official seating number is around 42,000 but local business owners think the "real" capacity with standing room and party decks is more like 45,000. The Cubs have drawn 2.6 million in 66 home games (39,393). If the Cubs owners were banking on a full house for a full home schedule, revenue projections have been light by more than $18 million.
For the second time this season, the Cubs are messing with Brewers in regard to playing a game.
First, the Cubs called a game for an alleged rain out on a day that it did not rain. It created a
doubleheader disadvantage for Milwaukee.
Now, the Cubs got a "one time exception" to the Friday night home game ban. The reason:
the Cubs are coming home from a night game in Pittsburgh. Well, the team knew that a year ago
and the Cubs set the start times for their home games - - - a year ago.
The Brewers wanted the day game to go on as scheduled. They appealed to the league office.
No action was taken.
The Cubs may be "tired" on the trip home (?) but it is September - - - you can have 40 men on your roster!
Being tired in September is a weak excuse.
You are the defending World Champs. Why pull bush league schedule changes against your closest rival?
Perhaps it is because the Ricketts are so invested in the new infrastructure that they are desperate for
post-season revenue - - - a lot of post season revenue. World Series type revenue.
Attendance has not been max this year. The official seating number is around 42,000 but local business owners think the "real" capacity with standing room and party decks is more like 45,000. The Cubs have drawn 2.6 million in 66 home games (39,393). If the Cubs owners were banking on a full house for a full home schedule, revenue projections have been light by more than $18 million.
June 22, 2016
THE SIXTH MAN
In the dead ball era of baseball, teams had two or three starters. In the 1960s-1970s, there were four man rotations. Today, the norm is a five starters on pitch counts.
The Cubs will soon buck the trend to add Adam Warren as the sixth starter.
The Cubs will soon go on a stretch of 24 straight games without a day off. With the heat of the summer upon the team, and Jake Arrieta scuffling to get through 5 innings recently, the front office is making a preemptive move by getting another pitcher available.
AAA Iowa does not have any quality major league ready starters to hold the fort in case of an injury or sore arm regular. That is why Warren, who made 17 starts last season with the Yankees as a long reliever, was sent to Iowa - - - to stretch out for a new role.
And because of recent high pitch counts, the Cubs have called up a platoon of fresh, young arms: C.J. Edwards (when Fowler went on the DL), Spencer Patton returns (to take Clayton Richard's spot) and Geraldo Concepcion (for Warren's slot).
Richard went to the DL for a "blister." He has been horrible and invisible this season, with a 7.30 ERA and a 2.19 WHIP. With no options left, this could be a way to buy time to see if they can get him straightened out before releasing him.
Warren was chosen to stretch out over Travis Wood because Wood is one of the few relief arms that Joe Maddon really trusts in any situation. Wood has become a force in the bullpen (2.30 ERA in 27 IP, 0.95 WHIP).
Patton has been good in Iowa, compiling eight (8) saves with a 1.04 ERA in 26 innings of work.
Concepcion will be the other lefty in the pen alongside Wood. This year in Iowa, he has worked just 17 1/3 innings to the tune of a 2.60 ERA. He’s allowed 7.8 H/9, but has managed to keep runners from crossing the plate. But Concepcion is the first Jed Hoyer pitcher to make it to the major league roster. A large bonus contract signed the Cuban exile in 2012, the first major move by the new regime. But Concepcion was horrible in rookie, A, and AA ball. From one of the best organizational prospects, he fell off the list. Some did not realize that he was still with the organization until his call-up yesterday.
The reason the Cubs will shuffle the bullpen with more arms is that Maddon believes the versatility of his regulars who play multiple positions effectively gives him a 28 man roster. However, that is really not true since a player cannot play two positions at the same time.
Another concern is that even though they have debuted in style, the Cubs are starting to regularly play three players with less than one year service time (catcher Willson Contreras, OF Alberto Almora, and IF Javy Baez.) Each has shown tremendous defense skills, but the Cubs need to produce more offense during this long stretch of upcoming games.
It is expected that Warren will throw a short start (3 IP), then a couple of normal outings (5 IP or 80 pitches) before returning to the Cubs. Once he returns, the rotation will go to six starters, meaning that each regular will have an extra day off during July and August. There was a concern last year that Arrieta's work load drained his tank in the post season. Lester and Lackey have a lot of innings pitched on their arms as well. It is a prudent move to try to conserve the best starting rotation in the majors for the playoffs.
The Cubs will soon buck the trend to add Adam Warren as the sixth starter.
The Cubs will soon go on a stretch of 24 straight games without a day off. With the heat of the summer upon the team, and Jake Arrieta scuffling to get through 5 innings recently, the front office is making a preemptive move by getting another pitcher available.
AAA Iowa does not have any quality major league ready starters to hold the fort in case of an injury or sore arm regular. That is why Warren, who made 17 starts last season with the Yankees as a long reliever, was sent to Iowa - - - to stretch out for a new role.
And because of recent high pitch counts, the Cubs have called up a platoon of fresh, young arms: C.J. Edwards (when Fowler went on the DL), Spencer Patton returns (to take Clayton Richard's spot) and Geraldo Concepcion (for Warren's slot).
Richard went to the DL for a "blister." He has been horrible and invisible this season, with a 7.30 ERA and a 2.19 WHIP. With no options left, this could be a way to buy time to see if they can get him straightened out before releasing him.
Warren was chosen to stretch out over Travis Wood because Wood is one of the few relief arms that Joe Maddon really trusts in any situation. Wood has become a force in the bullpen (2.30 ERA in 27 IP, 0.95 WHIP).
Patton has been good in Iowa, compiling eight (8) saves with a 1.04 ERA in 26 innings of work.
Concepcion will be the other lefty in the pen alongside Wood. This year in Iowa, he has worked just 17 1/3 innings to the tune of a 2.60 ERA. He’s allowed 7.8 H/9, but has managed to keep runners from crossing the plate. But Concepcion is the first Jed Hoyer pitcher to make it to the major league roster. A large bonus contract signed the Cuban exile in 2012, the first major move by the new regime. But Concepcion was horrible in rookie, A, and AA ball. From one of the best organizational prospects, he fell off the list. Some did not realize that he was still with the organization until his call-up yesterday.
The reason the Cubs will shuffle the bullpen with more arms is that Maddon believes the versatility of his regulars who play multiple positions effectively gives him a 28 man roster. However, that is really not true since a player cannot play two positions at the same time.
Another concern is that even though they have debuted in style, the Cubs are starting to regularly play three players with less than one year service time (catcher Willson Contreras, OF Alberto Almora, and IF Javy Baez.) Each has shown tremendous defense skills, but the Cubs need to produce more offense during this long stretch of upcoming games.
It is expected that Warren will throw a short start (3 IP), then a couple of normal outings (5 IP or 80 pitches) before returning to the Cubs. Once he returns, the rotation will go to six starters, meaning that each regular will have an extra day off during July and August. There was a concern last year that Arrieta's work load drained his tank in the post season. Lester and Lackey have a lot of innings pitched on their arms as well. It is a prudent move to try to conserve the best starting rotation in the majors for the playoffs.
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