The Cubs bullpen may be the worst collection of arms in a century.
It is the most glaring weakness on a ball club that has started out at 4-2.
In the short 2020 season, 10 percent has been played.
Overall, the pitching staff is not doing well:
4 W 2 L 5.43 ERA 53 IP 39 H 32 ER 27 BB 1.245 WHIP
But the bullpen is a black hole of badness:
0 W 0 L 9.65 ERA 18.2 IP 18 H 20 ER 20 BB 2.036 WHIP
The answer to this problem is clear: the Cubs failed to address the bullpen issues.
The reason was management refused in the off-season to spend any money.
Instead, you have pitchers coming out of the pen you have never heard of;
some making their major league debuts, some long term minor league journeymen, or
some who have not thrown in two years a major league pitch.
The bullpen is a bunch of reclamation projects with a slim hope that one
will catch lightning in a bottle.
Cub fans are stuck with this horror show. With the expanded playoffs of 16 of
30 teams, no one is really going to trade anyone at the deadline. And some
teams, like the Marlins, are toxic viral clusters so why infect your team
with another problem?
Can the offense score 6 runs or more each game to counter-balance the bad bullpen?
NO, of course not.
And that is why this season will be worse than expected.
Showing posts with label bullpen. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bullpen. Show all posts
July 30, 2020
March 28, 2019
THE INDICTMENT
The national news is filled with Chicago criminal headlines of celebrity favoritism, clout and pandering to voters. But the real indictment is the following:
When you looking at this pitching staff, what do you see?
STARTING PITCHERS
Yu Darvish
Cole Hamels
Kyle Hendricks
Jon Lester
Jose Quintana
RELIEF PITCHERS
Brad Brach
Tyler Chatwood
Steve Cishek
Carl Edwards Jr.
Brandon Kintzler
Mike Montgomery
Randy Rosario
Pedro Strop
The answer is obvious and criminal: none of these pitchers were drafted and developed by Theo Epstein.
Every one came by trade or free agency.
In seven years (seven amateur drafts), Epstein and company have failed to draft a pitcher and develop them to be on this year's 2019 Opening Day roster.
As a result, the starting rotation is the financial sinkhole of the team. If you include 6th starter Tyler Chatwood, the rotation's payroll is $97.9 million (or 47.5% of total budget).
The bullpen does not have a real, full time quality closer. Brandon Morrow is still on injured reserve, but his health for 2019 is always going to be a nagging issue.
As we have opined for years, the lack of developing home grown pitchers is killing the Cubs ability to make moves, keep a youthful core and combat arm injuries. Now, without any money to spend in case of injury, the Cubs are in a very tight spot in a very competitive NL Central.
When you looking at this pitching staff, what do you see?
STARTING PITCHERS
Yu Darvish
Cole Hamels
Kyle Hendricks
Jon Lester
Jose Quintana
RELIEF PITCHERS
Brad Brach
Tyler Chatwood
Steve Cishek
Carl Edwards Jr.
Brandon Kintzler
Mike Montgomery
Randy Rosario
Pedro Strop
The answer is obvious and criminal: none of these pitchers were drafted and developed by Theo Epstein.
Every one came by trade or free agency.
In seven years (seven amateur drafts), Epstein and company have failed to draft a pitcher and develop them to be on this year's 2019 Opening Day roster.
As a result, the starting rotation is the financial sinkhole of the team. If you include 6th starter Tyler Chatwood, the rotation's payroll is $97.9 million (or 47.5% of total budget).
The bullpen does not have a real, full time quality closer. Brandon Morrow is still on injured reserve, but his health for 2019 is always going to be a nagging issue.
As we have opined for years, the lack of developing home grown pitchers is killing the Cubs ability to make moves, keep a youthful core and combat arm injuries. Now, without any money to spend in case of injury, the Cubs are in a very tight spot in a very competitive NL Central.
March 8, 2019
ODDITIES FROM CUB CAMP
It was very strange that the Cubs reworked new reliever Brach's contract.
The Cubs just signed him, but then after a week of spring training, decided to rework the deal.
The deal basically back loaded the original money into the second year, saving about a million dollars in payroll for 2019.
If the Cubs are so tight with cash now to rework a middle reliever's new deal, things are going to be a problem throughout the season if injuries to pitchers come to the forefront as many experts have predicted. The reason for this situation has been that Epstein and Hoyer have yet to draft and develop any major league starting pitcher. Instead, they have had to rely on more expensive, veteran arms to fill the pitching staff. Worse, the Cubs farm system now ranks near the bottom.
Another oddity is that there really is no competition for any roster spot. Usually there is a competition for at least a bench role or a starting pitcher or relief arms. But the Cubs, since they did not do any major moves, are basically bringing back the 2018 squad. Delcasco replaced LaStella as the last bench player. Brach replaces Chavez.
As a result, Cub fans have not been excited about spring training. Most of the recent off season news have been about off-the-field transgressions by players and ownership. The PERCOTA prediction of 79 wins did not sit well with the club (even though the history of those predictions is very poor). But the rest of the NL Central has improved more so than the Cubs.
It is also odd that a team with 95 victories is making their star manager go through the final season of his contract without an extension. The writing seems to be on the wall that the front office is at odds with Maddon over how he has run the club. But the front office also has to be held accountable for the revolving door of hitting instructors. Maddon, and his $6 million salary, appear to be gone at the end of the season, barring a World Championship.
The question remains will the players play hard for a lame duck manager. A few need to prove themselves: Bryant and Darvish coming back from injuries; Contreras from a bad year at the plate.
The Cubs will start the season with the bad finish of 2018 front and center. Is there enough leaders in the young core to motivate the club to keep the championship window open?
The Cubs just signed him, but then after a week of spring training, decided to rework the deal.
The deal basically back loaded the original money into the second year, saving about a million dollars in payroll for 2019.
If the Cubs are so tight with cash now to rework a middle reliever's new deal, things are going to be a problem throughout the season if injuries to pitchers come to the forefront as many experts have predicted. The reason for this situation has been that Epstein and Hoyer have yet to draft and develop any major league starting pitcher. Instead, they have had to rely on more expensive, veteran arms to fill the pitching staff. Worse, the Cubs farm system now ranks near the bottom.
Another oddity is that there really is no competition for any roster spot. Usually there is a competition for at least a bench role or a starting pitcher or relief arms. But the Cubs, since they did not do any major moves, are basically bringing back the 2018 squad. Delcasco replaced LaStella as the last bench player. Brach replaces Chavez.
As a result, Cub fans have not been excited about spring training. Most of the recent off season news have been about off-the-field transgressions by players and ownership. The PERCOTA prediction of 79 wins did not sit well with the club (even though the history of those predictions is very poor). But the rest of the NL Central has improved more so than the Cubs.
It is also odd that a team with 95 victories is making their star manager go through the final season of his contract without an extension. The writing seems to be on the wall that the front office is at odds with Maddon over how he has run the club. But the front office also has to be held accountable for the revolving door of hitting instructors. Maddon, and his $6 million salary, appear to be gone at the end of the season, barring a World Championship.
The question remains will the players play hard for a lame duck manager. A few need to prove themselves: Bryant and Darvish coming back from injuries; Contreras from a bad year at the plate.
The Cubs will start the season with the bad finish of 2018 front and center. Is there enough leaders in the young core to motivate the club to keep the championship window open?
July 25, 2018
SECOND HALF ISSUES
The Cubs surged into first before the AS break, but now have begun to wobble in the heat of July.
Kyle Hendricks is not the old Hendricks, a pinpoint professor in the art of pitching. Teams have finally figured him out. An 88 mph fastball is not his out pitch. Batters are now sitting on change ups that are in the hitting zone. As Hendricks relies more on off-speed stuff on the corners, umpires are taking away is major advantage by calling more balls. Patient hitters and smaller strike calls is making Hendricks an average pitcher. It could change if he uses his fastball more to keep the batters honest and off-guard.
Kris Bryant was pulled from the line-up because of his shoulder issue. He said before the ASG that it was an injury that he will have to deal with throughout the season. But word is that he cannot even swing the bat. That means a probable DL stint and the return of Bote at third. Having Bryant out of the line-up puts more pressure on Rizzo, who is trying to hit his way out of his own personal slump by leading off. But Maddon will have to move Rizzo out of the #1 spot to increase scoring chances if Bryant goes on the DL.
Yu Darvish is becoming a real bad issue. The Cubs were happy that Darvish yesterday threw 16 pitches off the mound after three weeks of rest. Sixteen pitches is not a start. It seems that Darvish's progress has been painstakingly slow. The front office is counting more on Drew Smyly coming off Tommy John surgery than Darvish. Montgomery was great when he first took Darvish's spot in the rotation, but now after a half dozen starts, he is falling back into being an average starter (which ironically is better than the Cubs original 4th and 5th starters).
Javy Baez is trying to do too much. He got throw out again for aggressive baserunning. He needs to calm down and let the team win games. Baez is the Cubs current MVP. He is the only true five tool player on the roster who can make exciting plays at the plate and in the field. But Baez has a history of coming unglued at the bat. Let us see if he has matured enough to adjust to his new leader-by-example role.
The bullpen was re-tooled in order to be ready for the post-season. Brandon Morrow was the new closer, and Maddon kept him on the light work load. But Morrow got hurt anyway (which is his M.O.). The rotation has been sub-par all year, with very few quality starts. More times than not, starters are barely throwing five innings - - - which taxes the bullpen to the extreme that now four different position players have thrown in relief. Jesse Chavez acquisition was needed to find a "rubber" arm veteran who can do long relief, short relief, close and spot start. But asking Chavez to be the bullpen godsend is asking too much.
The Cubs offense still runs in feast or famine mode. They score a lot of runs, or they score very little. Consistency in the batting order could be blamed for the hot and cold mentality, but Maddon would disagree. He wants to use his entire roster to keep them fresh and in the game. But since the ASG, he has literally given up midway through 2 games (for losses).
The Cubs probably need to make a big move at the trade deadline, but they do not have any great minor league prospects to trade. And Theo and Jed are in love with "their" guys to trade away Happ, Schwarber or Almora.
Kyle Hendricks is not the old Hendricks, a pinpoint professor in the art of pitching. Teams have finally figured him out. An 88 mph fastball is not his out pitch. Batters are now sitting on change ups that are in the hitting zone. As Hendricks relies more on off-speed stuff on the corners, umpires are taking away is major advantage by calling more balls. Patient hitters and smaller strike calls is making Hendricks an average pitcher. It could change if he uses his fastball more to keep the batters honest and off-guard.
Kris Bryant was pulled from the line-up because of his shoulder issue. He said before the ASG that it was an injury that he will have to deal with throughout the season. But word is that he cannot even swing the bat. That means a probable DL stint and the return of Bote at third. Having Bryant out of the line-up puts more pressure on Rizzo, who is trying to hit his way out of his own personal slump by leading off. But Maddon will have to move Rizzo out of the #1 spot to increase scoring chances if Bryant goes on the DL.
Yu Darvish is becoming a real bad issue. The Cubs were happy that Darvish yesterday threw 16 pitches off the mound after three weeks of rest. Sixteen pitches is not a start. It seems that Darvish's progress has been painstakingly slow. The front office is counting more on Drew Smyly coming off Tommy John surgery than Darvish. Montgomery was great when he first took Darvish's spot in the rotation, but now after a half dozen starts, he is falling back into being an average starter (which ironically is better than the Cubs original 4th and 5th starters).
Javy Baez is trying to do too much. He got throw out again for aggressive baserunning. He needs to calm down and let the team win games. Baez is the Cubs current MVP. He is the only true five tool player on the roster who can make exciting plays at the plate and in the field. But Baez has a history of coming unglued at the bat. Let us see if he has matured enough to adjust to his new leader-by-example role.
The bullpen was re-tooled in order to be ready for the post-season. Brandon Morrow was the new closer, and Maddon kept him on the light work load. But Morrow got hurt anyway (which is his M.O.). The rotation has been sub-par all year, with very few quality starts. More times than not, starters are barely throwing five innings - - - which taxes the bullpen to the extreme that now four different position players have thrown in relief. Jesse Chavez acquisition was needed to find a "rubber" arm veteran who can do long relief, short relief, close and spot start. But asking Chavez to be the bullpen godsend is asking too much.
The Cubs offense still runs in feast or famine mode. They score a lot of runs, or they score very little. Consistency in the batting order could be blamed for the hot and cold mentality, but Maddon would disagree. He wants to use his entire roster to keep them fresh and in the game. But since the ASG, he has literally given up midway through 2 games (for losses).
The Cubs probably need to make a big move at the trade deadline, but they do not have any great minor league prospects to trade. And Theo and Jed are in love with "their" guys to trade away Happ, Schwarber or Almora.
October 23, 2017
HARD CHOICES
“Sooner or later you reach a point where you have to strongly
consider sacrificing some of that depth to address needs elsewhere on
the club. We’re entering a phase where we have to be really open-minded
to that if it makes the overall outlook of the team and organization
better.” --- Theo Epstein
General managers often fall in love "with their guys." To the point of overvaluing them; overprotecting them from the trade market; and hyping potential over performance.
The Epstein-Hoyer management has their own guys like Lester, Rizzo, Bryant, Schwarber and Happ.
Whether they will stick with their guys or move them will be the major story in the off-season. Much of the early blame to the playoff flame out was on the faltering bullpen and pitching staff (which led to the firing of pitching coach Chris Bosio.) But in reality, the offensive was so bad it would have taken perfect pitching to win against the Dodgers.
The Cubs go into the off-season with a lot of work to do.
The starting pitchers on the roster with major league experience as of this moment: Lester, Hendricks, Quintana, Zastryzny, Montgomery, Tseng.
Relievers on the roster with major league experience: Maples, Strop, Wilson.
From first glance, the Cubs have to sign three more starting pitchers this off season and find seven more major league ready relief pitchers in order to have pitching staff depth in 2018.
One of the great failures of the current Cubs front office is the inability to draft and develop starting pitchers. Approximately 48 percent of all Cub draft choices have been pitchers. The minor leagues is devoid of any can't miss pitching prospects. It puts pressure on the team to go out and trade or sign pitchers (which is the highest value commodity in the off-season).
The projected 2018 rotation is simple: Lester, Hendricks, Quintana, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN.
The bullpen is more a mess considering Wilson was pegged to be the next closer, and he got dropped from the playoff roster because of his bad performance.
Another problem with the current Cubs team is Maddon's tendency to "over manage" his club. He likes players who can play multiple positions, even if they have never played it before or are not the best at it. Prime example was playing Zobrist in RF. At times, he was slow to break on balls and did not cover much ground. Heyward is a defensive gold glove, but has a concrete bat.
Both Zobrist and Heyward appear to be expensive bench players. Heyward and Zobrist both have not trade clauses. Heyward will make $21.5 million and Zobrist $16.5 million next year.
The infield is set with Bryant, Russell, Baez, Rizzo and Contreras. Caratini projects to be the back up at catcher and first. LaStella projects to be the second super sub off the bench.
The outfield appears to have only Schwarber, Almora and Heyward. Happ seems to Joe's new Tampa Zo, moving from infield and outfield game by game.
With so many major holes to fill with little left in the minors to trade, some contract controlled player will have to be moved in a trade. Schwarber, Baez or Happ seem to be the most likely candidates.
Theo has painted himself into a corner to make some hard choices. The championship hangover is now over. Fans expect the Cubs to be in the playoffs next year to erase the disappointing finish to this season.
General managers often fall in love "with their guys." To the point of overvaluing them; overprotecting them from the trade market; and hyping potential over performance.
The Epstein-Hoyer management has their own guys like Lester, Rizzo, Bryant, Schwarber and Happ.
Whether they will stick with their guys or move them will be the major story in the off-season. Much of the early blame to the playoff flame out was on the faltering bullpen and pitching staff (which led to the firing of pitching coach Chris Bosio.) But in reality, the offensive was so bad it would have taken perfect pitching to win against the Dodgers.
The Cubs go into the off-season with a lot of work to do.
The starting pitchers on the roster with major league experience as of this moment: Lester, Hendricks, Quintana, Zastryzny, Montgomery, Tseng.
Relievers on the roster with major league experience: Maples, Strop, Wilson.
From first glance, the Cubs have to sign three more starting pitchers this off season and find seven more major league ready relief pitchers in order to have pitching staff depth in 2018.
One of the great failures of the current Cubs front office is the inability to draft and develop starting pitchers. Approximately 48 percent of all Cub draft choices have been pitchers. The minor leagues is devoid of any can't miss pitching prospects. It puts pressure on the team to go out and trade or sign pitchers (which is the highest value commodity in the off-season).
The projected 2018 rotation is simple: Lester, Hendricks, Quintana, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN.
The bullpen is more a mess considering Wilson was pegged to be the next closer, and he got dropped from the playoff roster because of his bad performance.
Another problem with the current Cubs team is Maddon's tendency to "over manage" his club. He likes players who can play multiple positions, even if they have never played it before or are not the best at it. Prime example was playing Zobrist in RF. At times, he was slow to break on balls and did not cover much ground. Heyward is a defensive gold glove, but has a concrete bat.
Both Zobrist and Heyward appear to be expensive bench players. Heyward and Zobrist both have not trade clauses. Heyward will make $21.5 million and Zobrist $16.5 million next year.
The infield is set with Bryant, Russell, Baez, Rizzo and Contreras. Caratini projects to be the back up at catcher and first. LaStella projects to be the second super sub off the bench.
The outfield appears to have only Schwarber, Almora and Heyward. Happ seems to Joe's new Tampa Zo, moving from infield and outfield game by game.
With so many major holes to fill with little left in the minors to trade, some contract controlled player will have to be moved in a trade. Schwarber, Baez or Happ seem to be the most likely candidates.
Theo has painted himself into a corner to make some hard choices. The championship hangover is now over. Fans expect the Cubs to be in the playoffs next year to erase the disappointing finish to this season.
May 18, 2017
NEW ARM OLD STORY
Steve Stone once said that all bullpen arms are failed starters.
The Cubs under Theo have failed to draft and develop one starter of their own.
The streak continues even though the team called up one fading prospect.
The Cubs have optioned infielder Jeimer Candelario to Triple-A Iowa and added Pierce Johnson to their bullpen.
Johnson — the first pitcher the Theo Epstein regime drafted for the Cubs — will be available to make his big-league debut against the Cincinnati Reds.
Johnson — the 43rd overall pick out of Missouri State University in 2012 and the compensation for losing free agent Aramis Ramirez — struggled with command issues and health problems as a starter and pivoted toward a bullpen role last summer.
Johnson went 2-0 with a 3.21 ERA in 12 appearances for Iowa this season, putting up 21 strikeouts against 11 walks and 15 hits through 14 innings.
But when Johnson was drafted, the front office painted the picture that he was the prototype pitcher the Cubs would stock pile in the minors. It never happened. Even though more than 50% of all Cub draft selections have been pitchers, none have made the majors as a starter. The inability to develop a home grown starter is the black hole in the Cubs organization. Every team is desperate for pitching, especially quality inning-eating starters. The premium spot is an ace starter. The inability to develop starters has led the Cubs to the market to overspend on free agents and pitchers on the decline in their careers.
But as we have seen this season, a starting rotation can crumble quickly. A five-man Opening Day rotation now looks for a 5th starter, and two replacements for Arrieta and Lackey when their deals expire at the end of the year. Some predict that Arrieta and Lackey may not last the entire season. It then gets to the proposition of Peter stealing to pay Paul; trading the depth of position prospects to either rent or take on a bad contract at the deadline for an experienced major league starter.
The Cubs under Theo have failed to draft and develop one starter of their own.
The streak continues even though the team called up one fading prospect.
The Cubs have optioned infielder Jeimer Candelario to Triple-A Iowa and added Pierce Johnson to their bullpen.
Johnson — the first pitcher the Theo Epstein regime drafted for the Cubs — will be available to make his big-league debut against the Cincinnati Reds.
Johnson — the 43rd overall pick out of Missouri State University in 2012 and the compensation for losing free agent Aramis Ramirez — struggled with command issues and health problems as a starter and pivoted toward a bullpen role last summer.
Johnson went 2-0 with a 3.21 ERA in 12 appearances for Iowa this season, putting up 21 strikeouts against 11 walks and 15 hits through 14 innings.
But when Johnson was drafted, the front office painted the picture that he was the prototype pitcher the Cubs would stock pile in the minors. It never happened. Even though more than 50% of all Cub draft selections have been pitchers, none have made the majors as a starter. The inability to develop a home grown starter is the black hole in the Cubs organization. Every team is desperate for pitching, especially quality inning-eating starters. The premium spot is an ace starter. The inability to develop starters has led the Cubs to the market to overspend on free agents and pitchers on the decline in their careers.
But as we have seen this season, a starting rotation can crumble quickly. A five-man Opening Day rotation now looks for a 5th starter, and two replacements for Arrieta and Lackey when their deals expire at the end of the year. Some predict that Arrieta and Lackey may not last the entire season. It then gets to the proposition of Peter stealing to pay Paul; trading the depth of position prospects to either rent or take on a bad contract at the deadline for an experienced major league starter.
April 17, 2017
THE HANGOVER
Last season, it took the Cubs 31 games to lose their 6th game of the season.
In 2017, it took 12 games.
A 19 game swing even early in the season is a huge red flag.
There is probably a huge championship hangover, with all the celebrations and
spring press expectations for a repeat.
The players off-seasons were probably quite different than seasons past in having to deal with the celebrity interaction with fans about the championship.
The Cubs were only swept once last season. The Pirates took that honor over the weekend when the Cubs re-tooled bullpen blew up.
Most people believe the Cubs will be fine. The Reds are not sustainable in first place in the NL Central. The Cardinals are in panic mode after dropping to dead last without a pulse. The early season is not a prediction of October. But, every game counts the same in the end. The Cubs are only on pace to win 81 games, which would be a huge nuclear meltdown if it would occur.
There was no drama, no real competition in spring training. It was a quiet, professional work out. The pundits believed that it would take 5 appearances before the pitchers would get into their groove.
The concern about new closer Davis was wrong. He is off to a good start; 1-0, 6 G, 2 SV, 0.00 ERA, 0.75 WHIP.
It is the middle of the bullpen that has been surprisingly bad.
Grimm: 6 G, 9.53 ERA, 1.59 WHIP
Strop: 6 G, 0-1, 9.00 ERA , 2.00 WHIP
Uehara: 7 G, 3.18 ERA, 1.41 WHIP
Montgomery, 0-2, 4 G, 3.00 ERA, 1.67 WHIP
The WHIP numbers indicate control issues which have led to half of the team's current losses.
It looks like the back end of the pen is set with Davis at closer, and Edwards and Rondon as 8th inning set up men. But since Maddon does not want to overtax his starters early in the season, long relievers like Montgomery and Grimm have to step it up. The bridge to the back end of the pen is broken.
What will cure a weak middle bullpen? An explosive offense.
The Cubs team batting average of .240 ranks 7th of 15 in the NL.
The Cubs 47 runs scored is 11th in the NL.
The Cubs 9 HR is last in the NL.
The Cubs OBP of .366 is 3rd in the NL.
The Cubs can get on base, but cannot get timely hitting to score adequate runs.
The tipping point will be May 1. That is when you will really know if your team is a contender or a pretender.
In 2017, it took 12 games.
A 19 game swing even early in the season is a huge red flag.
There is probably a huge championship hangover, with all the celebrations and
spring press expectations for a repeat.
The players off-seasons were probably quite different than seasons past in having to deal with the celebrity interaction with fans about the championship.
The Cubs were only swept once last season. The Pirates took that honor over the weekend when the Cubs re-tooled bullpen blew up.
Most people believe the Cubs will be fine. The Reds are not sustainable in first place in the NL Central. The Cardinals are in panic mode after dropping to dead last without a pulse. The early season is not a prediction of October. But, every game counts the same in the end. The Cubs are only on pace to win 81 games, which would be a huge nuclear meltdown if it would occur.
There was no drama, no real competition in spring training. It was a quiet, professional work out. The pundits believed that it would take 5 appearances before the pitchers would get into their groove.
The concern about new closer Davis was wrong. He is off to a good start; 1-0, 6 G, 2 SV, 0.00 ERA, 0.75 WHIP.
It is the middle of the bullpen that has been surprisingly bad.
Grimm: 6 G, 9.53 ERA, 1.59 WHIP
Strop: 6 G, 0-1, 9.00 ERA , 2.00 WHIP
Uehara: 7 G, 3.18 ERA, 1.41 WHIP
Montgomery, 0-2, 4 G, 3.00 ERA, 1.67 WHIP
The WHIP numbers indicate control issues which have led to half of the team's current losses.
It looks like the back end of the pen is set with Davis at closer, and Edwards and Rondon as 8th inning set up men. But since Maddon does not want to overtax his starters early in the season, long relievers like Montgomery and Grimm have to step it up. The bridge to the back end of the pen is broken.
What will cure a weak middle bullpen? An explosive offense.
The Cubs team batting average of .240 ranks 7th of 15 in the NL.
The Cubs 47 runs scored is 11th in the NL.
The Cubs 9 HR is last in the NL.
The Cubs OBP of .366 is 3rd in the NL.
The Cubs can get on base, but cannot get timely hitting to score adequate runs.
The tipping point will be May 1. That is when you will really know if your team is a contender or a pretender.
March 9, 2017
PITCHING STAFF
The only key spot left for discussion is the Cubs' fifth starter.
The main rotation is set: Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks and John Lackey.
The fifth starter spot will go to Mike Montgomery or Brett Anderson. Montgomery showed his versatility coming out of the bullpen in different situations. But at the end of the season, he was semi-promised to return to the rotation. But with the Cubs organizational starting depth weak, the Cubs signed oft-injured Anderson to compete for a position.
It is still early in camp, but the numbers after 2 games played:
Montgomery: 0-1, 2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 2.00 WHIP
Anderson: 1-0, 3 IP, 6.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
Joe Maddon has said that he could use both Montgomery and Anderson in hybrid pitching roles.
"The big thing with both of them (is) neither one has really been stretched out anywhere close to 200 innings over the last couple years. So we're thinking it's almost like a hybrid moment. Maybe fold one back into the bullpen while the other one starts. And vice versa. Or just jump a sixth guy in there now and then to keep the other guys from being overworked too early," Maddon said.
"It's in theory right now. We haven't actually laid it down on paper. We feel pretty fortunate. If everybody stays healthy, you got six guys that you like right there. It's hard for anybody to say that. That's the point. These guys have not been really satisfactorily stretched out over the last couple years," Maddon concluded.
Because of the amount of work the five starters did last season, Maddon has been cautious with his front line arms. It is possible that he will break camp with 6 starting pitchers, and keeping one as a long reliever-spot starter to control the number of pitches and innings for his veterans like Lester and Lackey. A spot start could add a "rest" day for each starter.
The bullpen seems set with Wade Davis the new closer. He will be joined by Hector Rondon, Pedro Strop, Carl Edwards, Koji Uehara, Justin Grimm and Brian Duensing.
That means the Cubs will probably break camp with an extra pitcher on a 13 man staff. Which means that the final roster battle will be on the last bench player, whether it be a utility infielder or 5th outfielder.
The 12 position players would appear to include Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Javy Baez, Ben Zobrist, Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras, Miguel Montero, John Jay, and Jason Heyward. That would leave 2 spots between Matt Szczur (who is out of options), Tommy LaStella or Albert Almora. With Schwarber, Bryant and Zobrist able to handle outfield duties, it would be surprising if both Szczur and Almora would make the final cut.
The main rotation is set: Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks and John Lackey.
The fifth starter spot will go to Mike Montgomery or Brett Anderson. Montgomery showed his versatility coming out of the bullpen in different situations. But at the end of the season, he was semi-promised to return to the rotation. But with the Cubs organizational starting depth weak, the Cubs signed oft-injured Anderson to compete for a position.
It is still early in camp, but the numbers after 2 games played:
Montgomery: 0-1, 2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 2.00 WHIP
Anderson: 1-0, 3 IP, 6.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
Joe Maddon has said that he could use both Montgomery and Anderson in hybrid pitching roles.
"The big thing with both of them (is) neither one has really been stretched out anywhere close to 200 innings over the last couple years. So we're thinking it's almost like a hybrid moment. Maybe fold one back into the bullpen while the other one starts. And vice versa. Or just jump a sixth guy in there now and then to keep the other guys from being overworked too early," Maddon said.
"It's in theory right now. We haven't actually laid it down on paper. We feel pretty fortunate. If everybody stays healthy, you got six guys that you like right there. It's hard for anybody to say that. That's the point. These guys have not been really satisfactorily stretched out over the last couple years," Maddon concluded.
Because of the amount of work the five starters did last season, Maddon has been cautious with his front line arms. It is possible that he will break camp with 6 starting pitchers, and keeping one as a long reliever-spot starter to control the number of pitches and innings for his veterans like Lester and Lackey. A spot start could add a "rest" day for each starter.
The bullpen seems set with Wade Davis the new closer. He will be joined by Hector Rondon, Pedro Strop, Carl Edwards, Koji Uehara, Justin Grimm and Brian Duensing.
That means the Cubs will probably break camp with an extra pitcher on a 13 man staff. Which means that the final roster battle will be on the last bench player, whether it be a utility infielder or 5th outfielder.
The 12 position players would appear to include Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Javy Baez, Ben Zobrist, Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras, Miguel Montero, John Jay, and Jason Heyward. That would leave 2 spots between Matt Szczur (who is out of options), Tommy LaStella or Albert Almora. With Schwarber, Bryant and Zobrist able to handle outfield duties, it would be surprising if both Szczur and Almora would make the final cut.
August 15, 2016
ARM FATIGUE
John Lackey was pulled from his last start due to soreness in the shoulder.
That is not a good sign. Afterward, he said he'd be "fine." Joe Maddon said some
post game treatment has helped him.
But most likely, he will skip his next start.
There is a doubleheader soon with a 26th man - - - most likely a spot starter like Cahill or Montgomery.
But Lackey's exit continues to spotlight the one weakness in the Cubs team: pitching.
Starting pitching has been the constant for the team with the best record in baseball. But it is a fragile rotation.
But the focus has been on the fragile bullpen. Nathan, Montgomery, Smith have been brought in to solidify a shaky pen. Only Chapman has been the real deal, monster closer.
Rondon was achy to come back and lose the final Cardinal game. Many fans hope it was just rust.
It is becoming one of those games of musical chairs with no real great ending.
The Cubs just signed Joe Thatcher to a minor league contract after the Indians cut him for the third time this season. Thatcher has not pitched in the majors in 2016. But it shows that the Cubs have no pitching depth in the system to overcome a Strop injury, nagging issues with Rondon, or the badness of Smith's home run pitches.
The bullpen will remain an issue for the rest of the season. It seems Maddon only trusts Chapman (for one inning only) and Wood (in any inning or game situation). He wants Rondon to be the 8th inning guy but there is an apparent transition for closers who lose their jobs. One would think that pitching is pitching - - - but players are intense creatures of habit.
Expect Lackey to miss at least one start. Also, each of the other four starters will get an extra day of rest in September as the Cubs need to start planning now for the post season rotation.
That is not a good sign. Afterward, he said he'd be "fine." Joe Maddon said some
post game treatment has helped him.
But most likely, he will skip his next start.
There is a doubleheader soon with a 26th man - - - most likely a spot starter like Cahill or Montgomery.
But Lackey's exit continues to spotlight the one weakness in the Cubs team: pitching.
Starting pitching has been the constant for the team with the best record in baseball. But it is a fragile rotation.
But the focus has been on the fragile bullpen. Nathan, Montgomery, Smith have been brought in to solidify a shaky pen. Only Chapman has been the real deal, monster closer.
Rondon was achy to come back and lose the final Cardinal game. Many fans hope it was just rust.
It is becoming one of those games of musical chairs with no real great ending.
The Cubs just signed Joe Thatcher to a minor league contract after the Indians cut him for the third time this season. Thatcher has not pitched in the majors in 2016. But it shows that the Cubs have no pitching depth in the system to overcome a Strop injury, nagging issues with Rondon, or the badness of Smith's home run pitches.
The bullpen will remain an issue for the rest of the season. It seems Maddon only trusts Chapman (for one inning only) and Wood (in any inning or game situation). He wants Rondon to be the 8th inning guy but there is an apparent transition for closers who lose their jobs. One would think that pitching is pitching - - - but players are intense creatures of habit.
Expect Lackey to miss at least one start. Also, each of the other four starters will get an extra day of rest in September as the Cubs need to start planning now for the post season rotation.
July 26, 2016
THE TRADE
The Cubs overpaid for a 10 week regular season rental player.
Aroldis Chapman is an elite closer. Chapman, 28, has the highest strikeout rate per nine innings in baseball, and his fastball was recently clocked at 105 mph. The left-hander has a 2.01 ERA in with 20 saves in 21 opportunities for the Yankees.
In order to get the deal done, the Cubs sent four players to New York: #1 prospect Gleyber Torres, #4 prospect OF Billy McKinney, swingman P Adam Warren (who Chicago got from NY in the Starlin Castro trade) and Class A OF Rashad Crawford.
Torres, 19, was the main chip in the deal. He is projected to have plus defensive skills. But he was going to blocked at the major league level by Addison Russell and Javy Baez.
Warren was a mixed bag as Maddon did not use him consistently as the Yankees did last season as a starter and long reliever. McKinney came over from Oakland in the Russell deal, but he seems to also be blocked by Albert Almora who will succeed Dexter Fowler in CF in 2017.
The Yankees were adamant about getting four players for Chapman, because last off-season they traded four players to the Reds to get Chapman, who was in hot water for an alleged domestic violence investigation.
Chapman and his agent negotiated a 30 game suspension with the league which allowed Chapman to earn enough service time this year to become a free agent this off-season. As a Scott Boras client, Chapman will test the free agent market. He had said he had a preference to re-signing with the Yanks.
So Chapman is clearly a rental player for the Cubs.
Some fans may not like the idea of a bad person coming into the good clubhouse the Cubs have fostered under Joe Maddon. Apparently, Ricketts and the front office spoke to Chapman and set forth their expectations of him and his conduct. In a press release, Chapman said he accepted the league punishment and is working with his girlfriend to raise their daughter. Whether this partial apology will stop fans or the media from questioning Chapman is another matter.
The four players traded for Chapman does improve the back of the bullpen.
However, the four players traded for Chapman could have been used to pry a controllable starting pitcher from a team like the Rays. The Cubs had been advertising that they wanted to get a controllable starting pitcher prior to the Mike Montgomery trade.
But it appears Theo and Jed are in "win now" mode - - - a championship this season or bust. The trade allows Rondon and Strop to pitch the 8th and 7th innings, with Montgomery and Wood being situational pitchers, and Nathan, Edwards and Grimm in mop up roles.
Aroldis Chapman is an elite closer. Chapman, 28, has the highest strikeout rate per nine innings in baseball, and his fastball was recently clocked at 105 mph. The left-hander has a 2.01 ERA in with 20 saves in 21 opportunities for the Yankees.
In order to get the deal done, the Cubs sent four players to New York: #1 prospect Gleyber Torres, #4 prospect OF Billy McKinney, swingman P Adam Warren (who Chicago got from NY in the Starlin Castro trade) and Class A OF Rashad Crawford.
Torres, 19, was the main chip in the deal. He is projected to have plus defensive skills. But he was going to blocked at the major league level by Addison Russell and Javy Baez.
Warren was a mixed bag as Maddon did not use him consistently as the Yankees did last season as a starter and long reliever. McKinney came over from Oakland in the Russell deal, but he seems to also be blocked by Albert Almora who will succeed Dexter Fowler in CF in 2017.
The Yankees were adamant about getting four players for Chapman, because last off-season they traded four players to the Reds to get Chapman, who was in hot water for an alleged domestic violence investigation.
Chapman and his agent negotiated a 30 game suspension with the league which allowed Chapman to earn enough service time this year to become a free agent this off-season. As a Scott Boras client, Chapman will test the free agent market. He had said he had a preference to re-signing with the Yanks.
So Chapman is clearly a rental player for the Cubs.
Some fans may not like the idea of a bad person coming into the good clubhouse the Cubs have fostered under Joe Maddon. Apparently, Ricketts and the front office spoke to Chapman and set forth their expectations of him and his conduct. In a press release, Chapman said he accepted the league punishment and is working with his girlfriend to raise their daughter. Whether this partial apology will stop fans or the media from questioning Chapman is another matter.
The four players traded for Chapman does improve the back of the bullpen.
However, the four players traded for Chapman could have been used to pry a controllable starting pitcher from a team like the Rays. The Cubs had been advertising that they wanted to get a controllable starting pitcher prior to the Mike Montgomery trade.
But it appears Theo and Jed are in "win now" mode - - - a championship this season or bust. The trade allows Rondon and Strop to pitch the 8th and 7th innings, with Montgomery and Wood being situational pitchers, and Nathan, Edwards and Grimm in mop up roles.
June 22, 2016
THE SIXTH MAN
In the dead ball era of baseball, teams had two or three starters. In the 1960s-1970s, there were four man rotations. Today, the norm is a five starters on pitch counts.
The Cubs will soon buck the trend to add Adam Warren as the sixth starter.
The Cubs will soon go on a stretch of 24 straight games without a day off. With the heat of the summer upon the team, and Jake Arrieta scuffling to get through 5 innings recently, the front office is making a preemptive move by getting another pitcher available.
AAA Iowa does not have any quality major league ready starters to hold the fort in case of an injury or sore arm regular. That is why Warren, who made 17 starts last season with the Yankees as a long reliever, was sent to Iowa - - - to stretch out for a new role.
And because of recent high pitch counts, the Cubs have called up a platoon of fresh, young arms: C.J. Edwards (when Fowler went on the DL), Spencer Patton returns (to take Clayton Richard's spot) and Geraldo Concepcion (for Warren's slot).
Richard went to the DL for a "blister." He has been horrible and invisible this season, with a 7.30 ERA and a 2.19 WHIP. With no options left, this could be a way to buy time to see if they can get him straightened out before releasing him.
Warren was chosen to stretch out over Travis Wood because Wood is one of the few relief arms that Joe Maddon really trusts in any situation. Wood has become a force in the bullpen (2.30 ERA in 27 IP, 0.95 WHIP).
Patton has been good in Iowa, compiling eight (8) saves with a 1.04 ERA in 26 innings of work.
Concepcion will be the other lefty in the pen alongside Wood. This year in Iowa, he has worked just 17 1/3 innings to the tune of a 2.60 ERA. He’s allowed 7.8 H/9, but has managed to keep runners from crossing the plate. But Concepcion is the first Jed Hoyer pitcher to make it to the major league roster. A large bonus contract signed the Cuban exile in 2012, the first major move by the new regime. But Concepcion was horrible in rookie, A, and AA ball. From one of the best organizational prospects, he fell off the list. Some did not realize that he was still with the organization until his call-up yesterday.
The reason the Cubs will shuffle the bullpen with more arms is that Maddon believes the versatility of his regulars who play multiple positions effectively gives him a 28 man roster. However, that is really not true since a player cannot play two positions at the same time.
Another concern is that even though they have debuted in style, the Cubs are starting to regularly play three players with less than one year service time (catcher Willson Contreras, OF Alberto Almora, and IF Javy Baez.) Each has shown tremendous defense skills, but the Cubs need to produce more offense during this long stretch of upcoming games.
It is expected that Warren will throw a short start (3 IP), then a couple of normal outings (5 IP or 80 pitches) before returning to the Cubs. Once he returns, the rotation will go to six starters, meaning that each regular will have an extra day off during July and August. There was a concern last year that Arrieta's work load drained his tank in the post season. Lester and Lackey have a lot of innings pitched on their arms as well. It is a prudent move to try to conserve the best starting rotation in the majors for the playoffs.
The Cubs will soon buck the trend to add Adam Warren as the sixth starter.
The Cubs will soon go on a stretch of 24 straight games without a day off. With the heat of the summer upon the team, and Jake Arrieta scuffling to get through 5 innings recently, the front office is making a preemptive move by getting another pitcher available.
AAA Iowa does not have any quality major league ready starters to hold the fort in case of an injury or sore arm regular. That is why Warren, who made 17 starts last season with the Yankees as a long reliever, was sent to Iowa - - - to stretch out for a new role.
And because of recent high pitch counts, the Cubs have called up a platoon of fresh, young arms: C.J. Edwards (when Fowler went on the DL), Spencer Patton returns (to take Clayton Richard's spot) and Geraldo Concepcion (for Warren's slot).
Richard went to the DL for a "blister." He has been horrible and invisible this season, with a 7.30 ERA and a 2.19 WHIP. With no options left, this could be a way to buy time to see if they can get him straightened out before releasing him.
Warren was chosen to stretch out over Travis Wood because Wood is one of the few relief arms that Joe Maddon really trusts in any situation. Wood has become a force in the bullpen (2.30 ERA in 27 IP, 0.95 WHIP).
Patton has been good in Iowa, compiling eight (8) saves with a 1.04 ERA in 26 innings of work.
Concepcion will be the other lefty in the pen alongside Wood. This year in Iowa, he has worked just 17 1/3 innings to the tune of a 2.60 ERA. He’s allowed 7.8 H/9, but has managed to keep runners from crossing the plate. But Concepcion is the first Jed Hoyer pitcher to make it to the major league roster. A large bonus contract signed the Cuban exile in 2012, the first major move by the new regime. But Concepcion was horrible in rookie, A, and AA ball. From one of the best organizational prospects, he fell off the list. Some did not realize that he was still with the organization until his call-up yesterday.
The reason the Cubs will shuffle the bullpen with more arms is that Maddon believes the versatility of his regulars who play multiple positions effectively gives him a 28 man roster. However, that is really not true since a player cannot play two positions at the same time.
Another concern is that even though they have debuted in style, the Cubs are starting to regularly play three players with less than one year service time (catcher Willson Contreras, OF Alberto Almora, and IF Javy Baez.) Each has shown tremendous defense skills, but the Cubs need to produce more offense during this long stretch of upcoming games.
It is expected that Warren will throw a short start (3 IP), then a couple of normal outings (5 IP or 80 pitches) before returning to the Cubs. Once he returns, the rotation will go to six starters, meaning that each regular will have an extra day off during July and August. There was a concern last year that Arrieta's work load drained his tank in the post season. Lester and Lackey have a lot of innings pitched on their arms as well. It is a prudent move to try to conserve the best starting rotation in the majors for the playoffs.
December 4, 2015
TENDERS AND WOOD
As expected, the Cubs tendered offers to Jake Arrieta, Travis Wood, Pedro Strop, Hector Rondon, Justin Grimm, and Chris Coghlan on Wednesday, and also agreed to terms with left-handed relievers Rex Brothers ($1.42 million) and Clayton Richard ($2.1 million) on 2016 contracts.
The Cubs did not tender contracts to right-hander Ryan Cook and lefty Jack Leathersich (who was injured and on rehab). All but Leathersich were arbitration-eligible.
Cook and Leathersich never suited up for the Cubs.
The front office continues to cull through waiver wire claims and now, non-tender lists, in order to add more bodies to the 40 man roster (which sits at 36 players) or to the AAA club.
The focus has been adding AAA replacement level pitchers for bullpen depth. Richard gives the Cubs the long reliever-spot starter that it needs to stabilize the rotation. This could also mean that the Cubs may actually give Wood the opportunity to try to regain his starter status. Wood was much more effective in relief because Bosio made him throw more fastballs instead of trying to paint the corners with off-speed pitches. Wood seems the only in-house option to be the Cubs #5 starter.
The Cubs did not tender contracts to right-hander Ryan Cook and lefty Jack Leathersich (who was injured and on rehab). All but Leathersich were arbitration-eligible.
Cook and Leathersich never suited up for the Cubs.
The front office continues to cull through waiver wire claims and now, non-tender lists, in order to add more bodies to the 40 man roster (which sits at 36 players) or to the AAA club.
The focus has been adding AAA replacement level pitchers for bullpen depth. Richard gives the Cubs the long reliever-spot starter that it needs to stabilize the rotation. This could also mean that the Cubs may actually give Wood the opportunity to try to regain his starter status. Wood was much more effective in relief because Bosio made him throw more fastballs instead of trying to paint the corners with off-speed pitches. Wood seems the only in-house option to be the Cubs #5 starter.
November 21, 2015
ADDING DEPTH CHEAPLY
There seems to be a new approach to the Cubs as the team tries to rebuild its major league bullpen.
The Cubs have acquired righty Spencer Patton from the Rangers in exchange for infielder Frandy De La Rosa. The team previously claimed injured pitcher Jack Leathersich on waivers and signed minor league free agent righty Audury Acevedo to a major league deal.
These transactions show a clear pattern: assemble a number cheap AAA arms and sees what pans out in spring training.
Leathersich will not be an option for a long time. Another Cub rehab project, Leathersich, 25, had Tommy John surgery in July. He was a first round selection of the Mets. In 5 minor league seasons, he is 9-9, 3.55 ERA with 7 saves. He has thrown only 11.3 major league innings. He has middle reliever status.
Patton, 27, has a 15-14, 3.49 ERA in 5 minor league seasons. He only has less than 34 innings of major league experience.
The 25-year-old Acevedo sped up the ladder in the Yankees organization last year after starting the season at High-A. He ultimately reached the Triple-A level in time to make ten late-season appearances.
Acevedo, a converted infielder, worked to a composite 2.59 ERA with 7.5 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9 over 59 total frames. He seemed to have limited the severe control issues he showed in his first couple of seasons after moving to the mound, but he did allow nine free passes in his 10 2/3 frames at the highest level of the minors.
These three Cubs signings represent another example of teams recently handing 40-man spots to minor league free agents. Usually, minor league free agents average 27 years of age which is still younger than an average veteran journeyman looking to latch on to a team in the off-season. Many teams may sign these minor leaguers to major league minimum deals because they are cheaper than veterans. Also, the minor leaguers may have more perceived upside than a journeyman.
The Cubs have acquired righty Spencer Patton from the Rangers in exchange for infielder Frandy De La Rosa. The team previously claimed injured pitcher Jack Leathersich on waivers and signed minor league free agent righty Audury Acevedo to a major league deal.
These transactions show a clear pattern: assemble a number cheap AAA arms and sees what pans out in spring training.
Leathersich will not be an option for a long time. Another Cub rehab project, Leathersich, 25, had Tommy John surgery in July. He was a first round selection of the Mets. In 5 minor league seasons, he is 9-9, 3.55 ERA with 7 saves. He has thrown only 11.3 major league innings. He has middle reliever status.
Patton, 27, has a 15-14, 3.49 ERA in 5 minor league seasons. He only has less than 34 innings of major league experience.
The 25-year-old Acevedo sped up the ladder in the Yankees organization last year after starting the season at High-A. He ultimately reached the Triple-A level in time to make ten late-season appearances.
Acevedo, a converted infielder, worked to a composite 2.59 ERA with 7.5 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9 over 59 total frames. He seemed to have limited the severe control issues he showed in his first couple of seasons after moving to the mound, but he did allow nine free passes in his 10 2/3 frames at the highest level of the minors.
These three Cubs signings represent another example of teams recently handing 40-man spots to minor league free agents. Usually, minor league free agents average 27 years of age which is still younger than an average veteran journeyman looking to latch on to a team in the off-season. Many teams may sign these minor leaguers to major league minimum deals because they are cheaper than veterans. Also, the minor leaguers may have more perceived upside than a journeyman.
September 14, 2015
THE BULLPEN DAY
Joe Maddon decided to "save" Dan Haren for Sunday's game. So he utilized a "bullpen" game for Saturday's contest. The weather was iffy, so he decided not to waste a starter with a potential rain delay. And with another double header up against Pittsburgh, he wanted to keep Arrieta and Lester available for that series. Those are all valid reasons.
But how he went about executing his plan was debatable.
The Cubs have 34 players on the roster, including a stretched out starter in Wada and long reliever in Richard. Either of those two could have started the game and pitch 3 or more innings. But Maddon decided to go with ex-starter Wood, then with Cahill (a former starter). That seemed to work well, until Maddon replaced Cahill with Grimm. Grimm is too much like Cahill. Richard had been warming up, so I thought at the time Richard would have been a better choice (lefty-righty then lefty). Grimm got wild and hammered around and the bullpen could not right the game.
In retrospect, it probably would have been better to start Wada, and if he had rust, then go Wood, Cahill, Richard to get to the back of the pen.
Maybe Maddon was not concerned since the Phils were playing their AAA team for most of the series. But a split series against the Phils feels like a major loss this late in the season. The Giants have now pulled within 7.5 games of the Cubs in the wild card. Plus, the time was to pounce on the struggling Cardinals.
But how he went about executing his plan was debatable.
The Cubs have 34 players on the roster, including a stretched out starter in Wada and long reliever in Richard. Either of those two could have started the game and pitch 3 or more innings. But Maddon decided to go with ex-starter Wood, then with Cahill (a former starter). That seemed to work well, until Maddon replaced Cahill with Grimm. Grimm is too much like Cahill. Richard had been warming up, so I thought at the time Richard would have been a better choice (lefty-righty then lefty). Grimm got wild and hammered around and the bullpen could not right the game.
In retrospect, it probably would have been better to start Wada, and if he had rust, then go Wood, Cahill, Richard to get to the back of the pen.
Maybe Maddon was not concerned since the Phils were playing their AAA team for most of the series. But a split series against the Phils feels like a major loss this late in the season. The Giants have now pulled within 7.5 games of the Cubs in the wild card. Plus, the time was to pounce on the struggling Cardinals.
August 18, 2015
STOPPERS
Joe Maddon has come around to a bullpen philosophy I have had for decades.
Growing up, starting pitchers were expected to pitch a complete game. Win or lose. Even in blow outs. Then, in the drag of hot summer days, a team may carry one, two or three "relief" pitchers to mop up games, come in for injury or spot start.
But bullpen evolution with the game has added, in the case of the Cubs, 8 relief pitchers on a 25 man roster. Because of pitch counts and salaries invested in starters, managers are mow trained to set up their pitching staffs in such a way to baby a starter through 5 or 6 innings, then have three relievers finish the game. The "closer" is the best relief pitcher on the staff - - - the one to get the last three outs.
But in reality, the "last" three outs count as much as the first three outs, or the middle of the 5th three outs.
Why the game has evolved to add pressure on the pitcher in the 9th inning is hard to qualify. The game now has "specialists" in all facets of the game. The lefty who gets out left handed hitters. The sinker baller who can induce a rally killing double play. The long reliever with the rubber arm who can eat up innings in a game. The "set up" guy to keep the game under control for the closer's 9th. It really seems silly to have a pitching staff blueprint of a "7th inning guy," an "8th inning set up man, and "a closer."
Games may not be won or lost in the 9th inning. In fact, the most damage usually occurs earlier in the game. Games can get out of control with your starting pitcher not having his best stuff. And that is where most games get lost.
So Maddon realizes that it is more important to stop the opponent from having a big early inning than coming from behind to win in the 9th inning.
Justin Grimm has had exactly half of his appearances this season -- 21 -- with men on-base.. More times than not Grimm has shut the door. Grimm, who turned 27 on Sunday, has become Maddon's most trusted middle reliever -- or the "middle innings closer" as Maddon put it -- not that he hasn't thrown late in games as well. It wasn't long ago he earned a win against the Giants after entering the game in the fifth inning, and then got a save against them a couple days later.
I have always called the role Grimm has for the Cubs as being a "stopper." Not a closer, but a pitcher - - - the old adage, a fireman - - - called upon to put out a fire (potential big inning). A stopper may be more valuable than a closer who usually comes into a game at the beginning of the 9th inning with no one on base. A stopper is a pitcher who comes into a tight jam and tries to stop the team's bleeding away a game.
A stopper could come in a game in any inning, at any time. It is that true versatility in the modern bullpen that most teams do not cultivate in their staffs. Maddon has found Grimm to be the pitcher he has trust and confidence to stop an opponent from burying his team early in games.
Growing up, starting pitchers were expected to pitch a complete game. Win or lose. Even in blow outs. Then, in the drag of hot summer days, a team may carry one, two or three "relief" pitchers to mop up games, come in for injury or spot start.
But bullpen evolution with the game has added, in the case of the Cubs, 8 relief pitchers on a 25 man roster. Because of pitch counts and salaries invested in starters, managers are mow trained to set up their pitching staffs in such a way to baby a starter through 5 or 6 innings, then have three relievers finish the game. The "closer" is the best relief pitcher on the staff - - - the one to get the last three outs.
But in reality, the "last" three outs count as much as the first three outs, or the middle of the 5th three outs.
Why the game has evolved to add pressure on the pitcher in the 9th inning is hard to qualify. The game now has "specialists" in all facets of the game. The lefty who gets out left handed hitters. The sinker baller who can induce a rally killing double play. The long reliever with the rubber arm who can eat up innings in a game. The "set up" guy to keep the game under control for the closer's 9th. It really seems silly to have a pitching staff blueprint of a "7th inning guy," an "8th inning set up man, and "a closer."
Games may not be won or lost in the 9th inning. In fact, the most damage usually occurs earlier in the game. Games can get out of control with your starting pitcher not having his best stuff. And that is where most games get lost.
So Maddon realizes that it is more important to stop the opponent from having a big early inning than coming from behind to win in the 9th inning.
Justin Grimm has had exactly half of his appearances this season -- 21 -- with men on-base.. More times than not Grimm has shut the door. Grimm, who turned 27 on Sunday, has become Maddon's most trusted middle reliever -- or the "middle innings closer" as Maddon put it -- not that he hasn't thrown late in games as well. It wasn't long ago he earned a win against the Giants after entering the game in the fifth inning, and then got a save against them a couple days later.
I have always called the role Grimm has for the Cubs as being a "stopper." Not a closer, but a pitcher - - - the old adage, a fireman - - - called upon to put out a fire (potential big inning). A stopper may be more valuable than a closer who usually comes into a game at the beginning of the 9th inning with no one on base. A stopper is a pitcher who comes into a tight jam and tries to stop the team's bleeding away a game.
A stopper could come in a game in any inning, at any time. It is that true versatility in the modern bullpen that most teams do not cultivate in their staffs. Maddon has found Grimm to be the pitcher he has trust and confidence to stop an opponent from burying his team early in games.
July 20, 2015
BITING BULLETS
The Cubs designated for assignment pitcher Edwin Jackson. The Cubs have 10 days to trade him, or he can accept a AAA assignment, or become a free agent pitcher.
The move is to promote reliever Rafael Soriano.
Jackson has had the ire of the fans since he signed his $52 million free agent contract.
During his Cub tenure, Jackson had a spotty record:
2013: 8-18, 4.98 ERA, 1.460 WHIP, -1.3 WAR
2014: 6-15, 6.33 ERA, 1.642 WHIP, -2.3 WAR
2015: 2-1, 3.19 ERA, 1355 WHIP, 0.1 WAR
In 2014, Soriano went 4-1, 32 saves, 1.129 WHIP and 0.8 WAR for the Nationals.
Soriano was signed as a free agent on June 12 for a pro-rated $4.1MM with $4MM in incentives. He’ll serve to further bolster a deep Cubs bullpen. Jason Motte has filled in as the team’s closer in recent weeks, but it stands to reason that Soriano could factor into the late innings too. Soriano, 35, did not allow an earned run in seven minor league appearances. In 630 career innings, he has 207 saves, a 2.85 ERA, 9.09 K/9, and 2.80 BB/9. He spent most of the 2014 season as the Nationals closer before giving way to Drew Storen late in the season. He has 27 or more saves in five of the last six seasons.
The question is why did the Nationals release Soriano? After the 2014 All Star break, Soriano tallied a 6.98 ERA, before being removed from the closer role on September 9. At age 35, all other teams passed on Soriano, thinking that he had nothing left in the tank.
Just as the Cubs are biting the bullet and paying $11 million for Edwin Jackson in 2016, the Cubs are also taking a flyer on Soriano to end the closer by committee situation.
The move is to promote reliever Rafael Soriano.
Jackson has had the ire of the fans since he signed his $52 million free agent contract.
During his Cub tenure, Jackson had a spotty record:
2013: 8-18, 4.98 ERA, 1.460 WHIP, -1.3 WAR
2014: 6-15, 6.33 ERA, 1.642 WHIP, -2.3 WAR
2015: 2-1, 3.19 ERA, 1355 WHIP, 0.1 WAR
In 2014, Soriano went 4-1, 32 saves, 1.129 WHIP and 0.8 WAR for the Nationals.
Soriano was signed as a free agent on June 12 for a pro-rated $4.1MM with $4MM in incentives. He’ll serve to further bolster a deep Cubs bullpen. Jason Motte has filled in as the team’s closer in recent weeks, but it stands to reason that Soriano could factor into the late innings too. Soriano, 35, did not allow an earned run in seven minor league appearances. In 630 career innings, he has 207 saves, a 2.85 ERA, 9.09 K/9, and 2.80 BB/9. He spent most of the 2014 season as the Nationals closer before giving way to Drew Storen late in the season. He has 27 or more saves in five of the last six seasons.
The question is why did the Nationals release Soriano? After the 2014 All Star break, Soriano tallied a 6.98 ERA, before being removed from the closer role on September 9. At age 35, all other teams passed on Soriano, thinking that he had nothing left in the tank.
Just as the Cubs are biting the bullet and paying $11 million for Edwin Jackson in 2016, the Cubs are also taking a flyer on Soriano to end the closer by committee situation.
May 19, 2015
THE ROSTER SQUEEZE
This is quite the rarity for a National League Club.
The Cubs are carrying only three outfielders (Coghlan, Fowler and Soler).
Why?
Because the Cubs are carrying 13 pitchers!
With three catchers still on the roster, that leaves only a bench of one utility infielder (Herrerra).
Travis Wood has had three lackluster starts, and was put into an emergency save situation during the home stand when Joe Maddon ran out of players. Now, the front office has given him a merry-go-round bullpen with call-ups and options to Iowa.
Tsuyoshi Wada will take Wood's place in the rotation. Wood will take the long reliever role that Edwin Jackson had once assumed, which presumed that Jackson will move down the line toward 7th inning chores. James Russell is back to be the lefty specialist. Zac Rosscup is holding a spot until Neil Ramirez returns from the DL.
The imbalance in the roster is foreboding if any position player goes down.
It is never good to have players playing out of position, especially in an emergency. Kris Bryant played an inning in center field because he was uncomfortable in left field. Wellington Castillo could play an emergency first base (we think). Suddenly, Herrera becomes the most important Everyman on the team.
With David Ross Jon Lester's personal catcher, and Castillo playing well off the bench, the Cubs will keep three catchers to the trade deadline. Ross is like another bench coach so his job is secure. The Cubs don't want to give away Castillo in a trade so it is possible he will remain as the power bat off the bench.
The Cubs are carrying two extra pitchers because Maddon likes to use a lot of pitchers during a game once a starter leaves. This may put more strain on a bullpen.
We should see this shake out in the next week.
UPDATE:
I have been blamed for pushing Beef out the door, as this morning the Cubs traded Castillo to the Mariners for reliever Yoervis Medina. The Mariners were looking for a back up catcher, and the Cubs are trying to find and stash as many bullpen arms it can find.
MLBTR stated that Medina seemingly represents "a buy-low arm" of the sort that the Cubs have targeted in recent years. Medina, 26, has struggled with just 6.8 K/9 against 5.3 BB/9 this year — the walks are nothing new, though he had struck out better than nine hitters per nine innings in prior years — he still owns a 3.00 ERA in his 12 innings of work. And Medina has compiled 125 innings of 2.81 ERA pitching over the prior two seasons.
Medina has shown significant velocity loss this year, dropping from last year’s 94-95 mph range down to 92.4 mph with both his four-seamer and two-seamer thus far in 2015. In addition to a quality sinker, which he went away from this year, Medina also features a rather promising curve ball.
Since Medina has only 2 years of ML service, the Cubs can send him to Iowa.
The Cubs are carrying only three outfielders (Coghlan, Fowler and Soler).
Why?
Because the Cubs are carrying 13 pitchers!
With three catchers still on the roster, that leaves only a bench of one utility infielder (Herrerra).
Travis Wood has had three lackluster starts, and was put into an emergency save situation during the home stand when Joe Maddon ran out of players. Now, the front office has given him a merry-go-round bullpen with call-ups and options to Iowa.
Tsuyoshi Wada will take Wood's place in the rotation. Wood will take the long reliever role that Edwin Jackson had once assumed, which presumed that Jackson will move down the line toward 7th inning chores. James Russell is back to be the lefty specialist. Zac Rosscup is holding a spot until Neil Ramirez returns from the DL.
The imbalance in the roster is foreboding if any position player goes down.
It is never good to have players playing out of position, especially in an emergency. Kris Bryant played an inning in center field because he was uncomfortable in left field. Wellington Castillo could play an emergency first base (we think). Suddenly, Herrera becomes the most important Everyman on the team.
With David Ross Jon Lester's personal catcher, and Castillo playing well off the bench, the Cubs will keep three catchers to the trade deadline. Ross is like another bench coach so his job is secure. The Cubs don't want to give away Castillo in a trade so it is possible he will remain as the power bat off the bench.
The Cubs are carrying two extra pitchers because Maddon likes to use a lot of pitchers during a game once a starter leaves. This may put more strain on a bullpen.
We should see this shake out in the next week.
UPDATE:
I have been blamed for pushing Beef out the door, as this morning the Cubs traded Castillo to the Mariners for reliever Yoervis Medina. The Mariners were looking for a back up catcher, and the Cubs are trying to find and stash as many bullpen arms it can find.
MLBTR stated that Medina seemingly represents "a buy-low arm" of the sort that the Cubs have targeted in recent years. Medina, 26, has struggled with just 6.8 K/9 against 5.3 BB/9 this year — the walks are nothing new, though he had struck out better than nine hitters per nine innings in prior years — he still owns a 3.00 ERA in his 12 innings of work. And Medina has compiled 125 innings of 2.81 ERA pitching over the prior two seasons.
Medina has shown significant velocity loss this year, dropping from last year’s 94-95 mph range down to 92.4 mph with both his four-seamer and two-seamer thus far in 2015. In addition to a quality sinker, which he went away from this year, Medina also features a rather promising curve ball.
Since Medina has only 2 years of ML service, the Cubs can send him to Iowa.
March 31, 2015
THE PEN
The Tribune believes the Cubs have settled their bullpen issues.
With the promotion of lefty Phil Coke, his $2.25 million contract was added to the 40-man roster was a foregone conclusion, especially have he had not allowed a run in 9 IP. Coke, 32, will be the only lefty reliever in the pen. That will lessen some of the options for manager Joe Maddon.
The 2015 bullpen is pretty much the same as last seasons, except with the addition of veterans Coke and former Cardinal Jason Motte. Motte has had a weak spring, so the Cubs are still looking at him as potential "closer insurance."
Closer: Hector Rondon
Set Up: Pedro Strop
8th Inning: Jason Motte, Neil Ramirez
Long relievers: Justin Grimm, Edwin Jackson
Lefty: Phil Coke
It appears the Cubs will be stuck with Jackson in some role. He did have his best spring outing, a one hit game against the scrub Royals. It was reported that Ricketts had authorized Theo Epstein to get rid of Jackson in trade and eating half the $26 million left on the contract. But there is little to no interest with Jackson for $6.5 million for a marginal fifth starter/long reliever.
Jackson has never been a troublemaker in the clubhouse, but he has never recently been demoted to the pen. He wants to be a starter. He believes he is a starter. Whether he accepts the role is an important aspect of Maddon keeping his first Cub clubhouse in proper balance. We know that during the course of the season pitchers will be get hurt, and the team will need three, four or five additional starters.
A few speculate that Maddon, always looking to find clever tweaks in the game like batting the pitcher in the 8th spot of the lineup, could have a 5.5 man rotation where Travis Wood and Jackson would alternate starts or possibly do "split games" like in minor league squads were two starters pitch half of a game. In theory, a "split game" should give the bullpen a full day's rest every week.
With the promotion of lefty Phil Coke, his $2.25 million contract was added to the 40-man roster was a foregone conclusion, especially have he had not allowed a run in 9 IP. Coke, 32, will be the only lefty reliever in the pen. That will lessen some of the options for manager Joe Maddon.
The 2015 bullpen is pretty much the same as last seasons, except with the addition of veterans Coke and former Cardinal Jason Motte. Motte has had a weak spring, so the Cubs are still looking at him as potential "closer insurance."
Closer: Hector Rondon
Set Up: Pedro Strop
8th Inning: Jason Motte, Neil Ramirez
Long relievers: Justin Grimm, Edwin Jackson
Lefty: Phil Coke
It appears the Cubs will be stuck with Jackson in some role. He did have his best spring outing, a one hit game against the scrub Royals. It was reported that Ricketts had authorized Theo Epstein to get rid of Jackson in trade and eating half the $26 million left on the contract. But there is little to no interest with Jackson for $6.5 million for a marginal fifth starter/long reliever.
Jackson has never been a troublemaker in the clubhouse, but he has never recently been demoted to the pen. He wants to be a starter. He believes he is a starter. Whether he accepts the role is an important aspect of Maddon keeping his first Cub clubhouse in proper balance. We know that during the course of the season pitchers will be get hurt, and the team will need three, four or five additional starters.
A few speculate that Maddon, always looking to find clever tweaks in the game like batting the pitcher in the 8th spot of the lineup, could have a 5.5 man rotation where Travis Wood and Jackson would alternate starts or possibly do "split games" like in minor league squads were two starters pitch half of a game. In theory, a "split game" should give the bullpen a full day's rest every week.
February 3, 2015
BUILDING FROM THE BACK
A few writing instructions implore that the best novels have their endings written first. In that manner, the author knows where he or she is clearly heading.
There is a growing philosophy in baseball that games are decided at the end, so management must concentrate on the bullpen in order to win. The development of a pitching "staff" is still relatively new to baseball. In the early days, each team had three starters and a mop up reliever. That was it. Pitchers were expected to throw 9, 10, 11, 14 innings a game, whatever it took. Yes, considering it was a dead ball era and scoring was light by today's standards, the pitchers were still throwing complete games as common place. There was no concept of a specialist in the pen to bail out a starter.
The modernization of pitching structure began when starting pitchers started to make more money than their position player counterparts. When a team invests so much money on an injury waiting to happen, owners hedge their bets. As a result, teams started to baby their starters. No more expectations for complete games. Since starters were not going to go the distance, teams had to retain more pitchers on the roster to close out games.
Those "closers" were in fact failed starters or end-of-career veterans who were paid little. The advent of a bullpen cut back on more expensive position players. But it also hindered a manager's ability to double switch, pinch hit or add defensive replacements at the end of games.
The modern bullpen came into being when pitchers were no longer expected to throw 7 or 8 innings per start. This led to a standardized routine of having a middle reliever, a set up man, and a 9th inning closer. Since a starting staff has five pitchers, a team would need six relievers in order to cover for them. Today, the norm is actually a 12 man pitching staff, with the added emphasis on pure specialists, like the lefty that can get out left handed hitters.
Dan Duquette, the Orioles GM (and whom the Blue Jays tried to acquire this winter) has built many franchises into contenders. He has adopted the bullpen strength philosophy the past few years in Baltimore. The O's have been quite successful with a strong bullpen. Britton (Closer), O'Day, Hunter, Matusz, and Webb combined for a staff WAR of 6.0. Reports from Baltimore state that the O's pen will be even better this season.
There is some logic in the concept of making a bullpen a priority than the roster development bastard child. But one of the things one must do is fully commit to the quality of the pen and not treat it as an after thought. But many teams would rather focus the resources on front line pitchers (those are the ones fans like to see).
There is a growing philosophy in baseball that games are decided at the end, so management must concentrate on the bullpen in order to win. The development of a pitching "staff" is still relatively new to baseball. In the early days, each team had three starters and a mop up reliever. That was it. Pitchers were expected to throw 9, 10, 11, 14 innings a game, whatever it took. Yes, considering it was a dead ball era and scoring was light by today's standards, the pitchers were still throwing complete games as common place. There was no concept of a specialist in the pen to bail out a starter.
The modernization of pitching structure began when starting pitchers started to make more money than their position player counterparts. When a team invests so much money on an injury waiting to happen, owners hedge their bets. As a result, teams started to baby their starters. No more expectations for complete games. Since starters were not going to go the distance, teams had to retain more pitchers on the roster to close out games.
Those "closers" were in fact failed starters or end-of-career veterans who were paid little. The advent of a bullpen cut back on more expensive position players. But it also hindered a manager's ability to double switch, pinch hit or add defensive replacements at the end of games.
The modern bullpen came into being when pitchers were no longer expected to throw 7 or 8 innings per start. This led to a standardized routine of having a middle reliever, a set up man, and a 9th inning closer. Since a starting staff has five pitchers, a team would need six relievers in order to cover for them. Today, the norm is actually a 12 man pitching staff, with the added emphasis on pure specialists, like the lefty that can get out left handed hitters.
Dan Duquette, the Orioles GM (and whom the Blue Jays tried to acquire this winter) has built many franchises into contenders. He has adopted the bullpen strength philosophy the past few years in Baltimore. The O's have been quite successful with a strong bullpen. Britton (Closer), O'Day, Hunter, Matusz, and Webb combined for a staff WAR of 6.0. Reports from Baltimore state that the O's pen will be even better this season.
There is some logic in the concept of making a bullpen a priority than the roster development bastard child. But one of the things one must do is fully commit to the quality of the pen and not treat it as an after thought. But many teams would rather focus the resources on front line pitchers (those are the ones fans like to see).
December 18, 2014
ODD MEN OUT
With the Cubs paying Jason Motte $4.5 million to be a middle reliever (and insurance if Rondon and Strop go down as closers), there is going to be some issues with the final 25 man roster.
New manager Joe Maddon likes the idea of platoons and match ups. Since he will have a LF field platoon of Coghlan and Lake since they traded Ruggiano (also, pending an upgrade acquisition) and the possibility to have a CF platoon with Alcantara, and an open second base situation if Baez struggles, and maybe a Valbuena-Olt 3B combo until Bryant is promoted, the Cubs will probably only have 11 pitchers on the staff (6 bullpen arms).
OF: Coghlan, Lake, Alcantara, Soler, Sweeney
IN: Valbuena, Olt, Castro, Baez, La Stella, Watkins, Rizzo
C: Montero, Castillo
SP: Lester, Hammel, Arrieta, Hendricks, Wada
RP: Rondon, Strop, Motte, Ramirez, Grimm, Ortiz
The odd men out on the pitching staff:
SP: T. Wood, Turner, Doubront, E. Jackson, Straily
RP: Jokisch, Beeler, Parker, Roach, Rosscup, Schlitter
The most trade value would be in T. Wood. There has also been bad contract swap reports for E. Jackson. Parker or Rosscup could provide limited prospect returns in trade.
Again, the bullpen was not the problem in the 2014 club. The Cubs still need to upgrade most position players with starting caliber, professional hitters. As such, players such as Sweeney, Olt, Watkins, LaStella are potentially on the bubble in making the squad after spring training if the Cubs can acquire a starting position player of note.
New manager Joe Maddon likes the idea of platoons and match ups. Since he will have a LF field platoon of Coghlan and Lake since they traded Ruggiano (also, pending an upgrade acquisition) and the possibility to have a CF platoon with Alcantara, and an open second base situation if Baez struggles, and maybe a Valbuena-Olt 3B combo until Bryant is promoted, the Cubs will probably only have 11 pitchers on the staff (6 bullpen arms).
OF: Coghlan, Lake, Alcantara, Soler, Sweeney
IN: Valbuena, Olt, Castro, Baez, La Stella, Watkins, Rizzo
C: Montero, Castillo
SP: Lester, Hammel, Arrieta, Hendricks, Wada
RP: Rondon, Strop, Motte, Ramirez, Grimm, Ortiz
The odd men out on the pitching staff:
SP: T. Wood, Turner, Doubront, E. Jackson, Straily
RP: Jokisch, Beeler, Parker, Roach, Rosscup, Schlitter
The most trade value would be in T. Wood. There has also been bad contract swap reports for E. Jackson. Parker or Rosscup could provide limited prospect returns in trade.
Again, the bullpen was not the problem in the 2014 club. The Cubs still need to upgrade most position players with starting caliber, professional hitters. As such, players such as Sweeney, Olt, Watkins, LaStella are potentially on the bubble in making the squad after spring training if the Cubs can acquire a starting position player of note.
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