MISSING PIECES

ESPN's Buster Olney opines that many aspects of the traditional game of baseball are vanishing before our own eyes. Basic managerial strategies like the hit-and-run, or the squeeze bunt, or pitchouts, or stolen bases are all significantly down over the past decade.

The game’s three true outcomes -- the strikeout, the walk, the home run -- have increased exponentially, and "like invasive species, they are swallowing other parts of the game."

He blames the wide spread use of statistical models that are now ruling the game.

Pitchers are now being programmed to make exacting pitch locations with various pitches. So there is no emphasis on keeping a runner close at first base, or worse, wasting a pitch on a pitch out.

Likewise, runners have been taught that the risk-reward for stealing a base is not worth the chance. Unless you have an 80 percent success rate, it is better to stay close to the bag to wait for a batter to walk or hit a home run.

Even with a slow runner on first base, managers used to employ the hit-and-run. The reason was simple: once the runner broke to the bag, one middle infielder had to start moving to cover second. The motion of the defense created holes in the infield that could be exploited by a good contact hitter. But there is a huge lack of .300 contact hitters in the majors. Hitters are being more concerned about their launch angles (swings so they can hit HRs), exit velocity of the ball off the bat (for distance) and OBP (the general manager's pet statistic come contract renewal time.) 

But with the statistical probability defensive grid shifts applied to every batter, the hit and run play may be the only way some batters can actually hit a grounder into the outfield for a single.

With a runner at third with less than two outs, the manager had several options to call. First, the batter could try to hit a deep fly ball to the outfield (sacrifice fly) to score the runner. Second, the batter could make the pitcher work a count, and in a high stress situation may throw a wild pitch to score the runner. Third, the batter could try to fool the infield with a "safety" squeeze in an attempt to get an infield single - - - and if the defenders were not paying attention, the runner from third could try to score in the confusion. Fourth, the manager could on the pitch send the runner racing for home forcing the batter to make any sort of contact in play so the runner could score (the suicide squeeze since the runner would be out if the batter failed to get contact).

Rarely does a manager call for a bunt. The problem is that players don't want to learn to bunt. Bunting does not help their stat line. Players would rather try to get a hit than sacrifice. Sacrifices are left to the weak hitting pitchers in the NL.

For some, major league baseball is now becoming a modified home run derby contest. It is swing for the fences or coax a walk. There is less strategy but more controversy about calls made by umpires (and the breakdown of replay to resolve issues).

Olney may be on to something. The game is supposed to have more moving parts than just pitching and hitting.

TAKING OUT THE UNWRITTEN RULE

Major League Baseball has announced a new rule to clean up the "take out" slide at second base.

Under new Rule 6.01(j), which has been added to the existing Rule 6.01 on "Interference, Obstruction, and Catcher Collisions," slides on potential double plays will require runners to make a bona fide attempt to reach and remain on the base. Runners may still initiate contact with the fielder as a consequence of an otherwise permissible slide. A runner will be specifically prohibited from changing his pathway to the base or utilizing a "roll block" for the purpose of initiating contact with the fielder. Potential violations of Rule 6.01(j) will be reviewable using instant replay. Also reviewable will be "neighborhood play" calls, which previously were exempted from replay review. Rule 6.01(j) reads as follows:

Rule 6.01(j) - Sliding To Bases On Double Play Attempts

If a runner does not engage in a bona fide slide, and initiates (or attempts to make) contact with the fielder for the purpose of breaking up a double play, he should be called for interference under this Rule 6.01. A "bona fide slide" for purposes of Rule 6.01 occurs when the runner:

1. begins his slide (i.e., makes contact with the ground) before reaching the base;
2. is able and attempts to reach the base with his hand or foot;
3. is able and attempts to remain on the base (except home plate) after completion of the slide; and
4. slides within reach of the base without changing his pathway for the purpose of initiating contact with a fielder.

A runner who engages in a "bona fide slide" shall not be called for interference under this Rule 6.01, even in cases where the runner makes contact with the fielder as a consequence of a permissible slide. In addition, interference shall not be called where a runner's contact with the fielder was caused by the fielder being positioned in (or moving into) the runner's legal pathway to the base.

Notwithstanding the above, a slide shall not be a "bona fide slide" if a runner engages in a "roll block," or intentionally initiates (or attempts to initiate) contact with the fielder by elevating and kicking his leg above the fielder's knee or throwing his arm or his upper body.

If the umpire determines that the runner violated this Rule 6.01(j), the umpire shall declare both the runner and batter-runner out. Note, however, that if the runner has already been put out then the runner on whom the defense was attempting to make a play shall be declared out.

THE LOST ART OF THE STEAL

Baseball has become a station to station game.

It is rare to find an aggressive team using speed as a weapon.

Cincinnati Reds outfielder Billy Hamilton is single-handedly bringing back one of the most exciting feats in Major League Baseball, the stolen base. 

On Monday night, Hamilton stole four bases against the Minnesota Twins giving him 40 for the season. The second-year outfielder is now on pace to steal 86 bases, which would make him the first player to steal at least 80 bases in a single season since Rickey Henderson (93) and Vince Coleman (81) both did it in 1988.

But what is really amazing is that 86 stolen bases may actually be a low bar for Hamilton. He has stolen more than 100 in the minor leagues. He's getting better at stealing bases as the season goes on, and he is still not very good at the most important aspect of base thievery: getting on base.

 On base percentage (OBP) is one of those sabermetrics that new wave GMs like on their roster. But without a corresponding recognition for the stolen base to move runners into scoring position, it still takes a walk or base hit to move them around the base paths. And considering the average team hits .250 or so, that is only a one in four chance to advance a runner from first to second.

Scouts will tell you the one thing teams cannot teach players is speed. You either have it or you do not. Speed on the base paths makes the opposing pitcher think about runners. Any distraction to a pitcher's concentration is a plus for the batting team. Small advantages can create big innings.

So why has the stolen base been downplayed by teams? Teams are looking for more rounded players. Normally a speed merchant is usually a good field, no hit narrow skill set player. Teams are looking for five tool players who can hit for average, power and drive in runs. In some ways, the Earl Weaver three run HR strategy is still in vogue, even when hitters are getting dominated by pitchers this year.

Manufacturing runs through steals, hit and run plays, taking an extra base on an outfield hit are all fading from the team's fundamental playbooks. Teams don't teach base running fundamentals. Look at how many stupid running plays you see in an average game. Players should never run themselves into an easy tag out. But it happens all the time. And players have no idea how to slide into a base, or to avoid a tag.

A base stealer is a valuable commodity. But no one seems to really care to exploit one of the game's rules, except Hamilton and the Reds.