MLBTR reports that the Yankees paid a high price to acquire a closer.
After months of trying to add a third dominant reliever to their
bullpen, the Yankees on Monday announced the acquisition of left-hander Aroldis Chapman from the Reds in exchange for a quartet of minor leaguers. Third baseman Eric Jagielo will head to Cincinnati, as will second baseman Tony Renda and right-handers Rookie Davis and Caleb Cotham. Chapman will presumably slide into the Yankees’ closer role, combining with fellow southpaw Andrew Miller and right-hander Dellin Betances to create perhaps the most formidable bullpen trio in all of Major League Baseball next season.
Chapman, 27, is arguably baseball’s best relief pitcher, is set to become a free agent in 2017. But there is a domestic violence
allegations that ultimately halted a trade to the Dodgers from being
finalized earlier this month. Chapman is currently being investigated by
the league, and if he is found in violation of the league’s new domestic violence policy, he could fall short of the six years service time needed to become a free agent. It would seem the Yankees acquired Chapman in order to have exclusive negotiating rights to him during the 2016 season.
Cincinnati is the garage sale rebuild mode after trading All-Star third baseman Todd Frazier to the White Sox. The Reds have added two minor leaguers from the Yankees’ second
tier of prospects (Jagielo #6 prospect and Davis #10 prospect) in addition to a pair of prospects
that didn’t crack the Top 30 lists of either MLB.com or Baseball
America.
Jagielo, 23, was selected in the first round of the 2013 draft out of
Notre Dame. A knee injury that required arthroscopic surgery shortened
his 2015 season, but when he was healthy, he batted .284/.347/.495 with
nine homers in 58 games/248 plate appearances at the Double-A level.
MLB.com’s scouting report notes that Jagielo is strong and has “good
loft in his swing,” giving him the ability to drive the ball to all
fields. His penchant for strikeouts (23.3 percent in 2015; 24.4 percent
in 2014) is a red flag, but MLB.com notes that he draws enough walks to
post sound OBP numbers even if his batting average is lackluster. The
question surrounding Jagielo is whether he’ll stay at third base or move
across the diamond to first, as questions about his range and arm
strength are oft-cited strikes against him. Despite those potential
issues, MLB.com did rate him as the No. 7 third-base prospect in the
game.
As for Davis, Norris notes in his scouting report over at BA that
alterations to his delivery led to a breakout of sorts in 2015. Davis
pitched to a combined 3.86 ERA with 8.9 K/9 against 1.8 BB/9 in in 130
2/3 innings between Class-A Advanced and Double-A. The mechanical
changes resulted in increased velocity, per Norris, who writes that
Davis sits 93 to 95 mph with his heater — a pitch that is complemented
by a sharp mid-70s curve and a low-80s changeup. BA indicates that he
could be a mid-rotation starter, while MLB.com notes that he has good
control but spotty command (i.e. throws strikes but doesn’t command the
pitches within the strike zone) and could be best suited for a relief
role, where his velocity could approach triple digits.
The Yankees acquired Renda, 24, from the Nationals this past season in exchange for right-hander David Carpenter. The fleet-footed infielder batted .269/.330/.358 in 532 Double-A plate
appearances between the two organizations, adding three homers and 23
steals (in 29 attempts). Renda rated 12th among Nationals farmhands last
season and was 22nd on MLB.com’s Top 30 at the time of the trade to the
Yankees in early June. BA praised his compact swing and line-drive
stroke in last winter’s scouting report, noting that his bat has a
chance to be above-average, and he’s tough to strike out. He’s drawn
praise for his makeup and work ethic as well as his advanced bat control while noting that he lacked power.
Cotham, who turned 28 in November, made his big league debut with the
Yankees this past season but struggled, yielding seven runs on 14 hits
(four homers) and a walk with 11 strikeouts in 9 2/3 innings. That
11-to-1 K/BB ratio is encouraging, however, as is the 1.74 ERA that
Cotham recorded in 31 innings at the Triple-A level, where he struck out
30 batters and walked just five. Cotham worked exclusively out of the
bullpen between Double-A and Triple-A in 2015, totaling a 2.21 ERA with
9.6 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9. He could potentially step directly into the
Reds’ bullpen, where he’d bring a fastball that averaged 92.6 mph in his
brief big league tenure this past season.
MLBTR concludes that the Reds added mid-level prospects and an MLB-ready
bullpen arm in exchange for one year of the game’s best closer. Some may think the return is somewhat disappointing in a vacuum, it’s
clear that Chapman’s domestic violence allegations rightly lowered the
asking price and prevented Cincinnati from maximizing his value in a
trade. But in reality, the Reds did receive four (4) prospects with potential upsides to add depth to their minor league system.
The Reds ended last season with five rookie starting pitchers. The team is on a development track by quickly advancing prospects to the major leagues. In that type of environment, there is an incentive for players to work harder to get to the majors quicker - - - which can quickly mold a core of good, young players.
Showing posts with label Reds. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Reds. Show all posts
December 29, 2015
December 17, 2015
HOLY COW!
This was a move that caught many off-guard: The White Sox fixing their third base problem by trading for Reds All-Star Todd Frazier.
In the three team deal, the White Sox send to the Dodgers three high level prospects: SP Frankie Montas, OF Trayce Thompson and IN Micah Johnson. The Dodgers send to the Reds a package of quality prospects: IN Jose Peraza, OF Scott Schebler and IN Brandon Dixon.
Montas is a flamethrower starting minor league pitcher and listed as the team's #3 prospect. Thompson was the White Sox's #14 prospect, but had a good debut last year to the point that he would compete for a starting OF position. Johnson was the Sox's #5 prospect. He is a solid infield defender with speed. But the acquisition of Brett Lawrie made Johnson expendable depth.
Frazier, 29, is under team control through 2017. He will be paid $7.5 million in 2016.
Frazier hit .255, 35 HR, 89 RBI, 13 SB with the Reds. He had a season 4.0 WAR. In his 4.25 seasons in the majors, his career WAR is 15.3.
This move immediately re-tools the Sox infield and line-up.
Frazier will anchor third, sophomore Tyler Saladino will compete for shortstop, Lawrie at second and Jose Abreu at first.
Along with two new proven catchers, the White Sox lineup looks more powerful:
1. Eaton CF
2. Cabrera LF
3. Abreu 1B
4. Frazier 3B
5. Lawrie 2B
6. Garcia RF
7. LaRoche DH
8. Navarro/Avila C
9. Saladino SS
In the three team deal, the White Sox send to the Dodgers three high level prospects: SP Frankie Montas, OF Trayce Thompson and IN Micah Johnson. The Dodgers send to the Reds a package of quality prospects: IN Jose Peraza, OF Scott Schebler and IN Brandon Dixon.
Montas is a flamethrower starting minor league pitcher and listed as the team's #3 prospect. Thompson was the White Sox's #14 prospect, but had a good debut last year to the point that he would compete for a starting OF position. Johnson was the Sox's #5 prospect. He is a solid infield defender with speed. But the acquisition of Brett Lawrie made Johnson expendable depth.
Frazier, 29, is under team control through 2017. He will be paid $7.5 million in 2016.
Frazier hit .255, 35 HR, 89 RBI, 13 SB with the Reds. He had a season 4.0 WAR. In his 4.25 seasons in the majors, his career WAR is 15.3.
This move immediately re-tools the Sox infield and line-up.
Frazier will anchor third, sophomore Tyler Saladino will compete for shortstop, Lawrie at second and Jose Abreu at first.
Along with two new proven catchers, the White Sox lineup looks more powerful:
1. Eaton CF
2. Cabrera LF
3. Abreu 1B
4. Frazier 3B
5. Lawrie 2B
6. Garcia RF
7. LaRoche DH
8. Navarro/Avila C
9. Saladino SS
July 2, 2015
THE LOST ART OF THE STEAL
Baseball has become a station to station game.
It is rare to find an aggressive team using speed as a weapon.
Cincinnati Reds outfielder Billy Hamilton is single-handedly bringing back one of the most exciting feats in Major League Baseball, the stolen base.
It is rare to find an aggressive team using speed as a weapon.
Cincinnati Reds outfielder Billy Hamilton is single-handedly bringing back one of the most exciting feats in Major League Baseball, the stolen base.
On Monday night, Hamilton
stole four bases against the Minnesota Twins giving him 40 for the
season. The second-year outfielder is now on pace to steal 86 bases,
which would make him the first player to steal at least 80 bases in a
single season since Rickey Henderson (93) and Vince Coleman (81) both
did it in 1988.
But what is really amazing is
that 86 stolen bases may actually be a low bar for Hamilton. He has stolen more than 100 in the minor leagues. He's
getting better at stealing bases as the season goes on, and he is still
not very good at the most important aspect of base thievery: getting on
base.
On base percentage (OBP) is one of those sabermetrics that new wave GMs like on their roster. But without a corresponding recognition for the stolen base to move runners into scoring position, it still takes a walk or base hit to move them around the base paths. And considering the average team hits .250 or so, that is only a one in four chance to advance a runner from first to second.
Scouts will tell you the one thing teams cannot teach players is speed. You either have it or you do not. Speed on the base paths makes the opposing pitcher think about runners. Any distraction to a pitcher's concentration is a plus for the batting team. Small advantages can create big innings.
So why has the stolen base been downplayed by teams? Teams are looking for more rounded players. Normally a speed merchant is usually a good field, no hit narrow skill set player. Teams are looking for five tool players who can hit for average, power and drive in runs. In some ways, the Earl Weaver three run HR strategy is still in vogue, even when hitters are getting dominated by pitchers this year.
Manufacturing runs through steals, hit and run plays, taking an extra base on an outfield hit are all fading from the team's fundamental playbooks. Teams don't teach base running fundamentals. Look at how many stupid running plays you see in an average game. Players should never run themselves into an easy tag out. But it happens all the time. And players have no idea how to slide into a base, or to avoid a tag.
A base stealer is a valuable commodity. But no one seems to really care to exploit one of the game's rules, except Hamilton and the Reds.
April 21, 2015
RED IN THE FACE
Everyone has a bad day or two at the office. But when one flips out in public, it is sure to gather a lot of negative attention.
Reds manager Bryan Price lashed out in front of a group of 10 media members Monday, reportedly using the F-word 77 times and 10 more variants of other vulgarities in a five-and-a-half minute rant because he was unhappy about recent reports that in his view could be beneficial to opponents.
According to the Cincinnati Enquirer, Price said "I don't get it. It's, you know, look, I don't need you guys to be fans of the Reds." I just need to know if there's something we want to keep here, it stays here."
Price was upset that minor league promotions and demotions were hitting the press and public before the actual players were notified by the team. He was also upset with the report that catcher Devin Mesoraco was unavailable to pinch hitter due to a hip injury. "I've got to f---ing read that on a f---ing tweet on our own people in here that we don't have a f---ing player?" Price said. "How the f--- does that benefit the Reds? It doesn't benefit us one f---ing bit."
Price is naive or stupid on the role of the press in covering the Reds. He did not dispute the accuracy of any of the news reports. The press and local media is supposed to report the news on the Reds team, including roster moves before or after the official announcements by the team. The press represents the fans and public in providing information to them. The press does not work for the Reds.
Many managers are livid that beat reporters ask the same questions day after day, especially after a series of tough losses or during long losing streaks. But a basic story needs to cover the who, what, when, where, how and why a game's outcome was decided by plays and decisions by the manager.
Part of the problem is also that the professional sports teams have packaged their games with the networks in such a way as to have mutual admiration clauses in the contract to self-promote the "good" aspects of the sport. Rarely does a network criticize the NFL during the season (with the exception of player criminal cases or conduct.) Each sports league wants to "control the coverage" of their sport through their public relations marketing departments. But real life cannot be contained inside a vacuum of press releases.
Newspapers, radio and television stations are all in competition with other forms of media to attract and retain readers, listeners and viewers. In order to do so, they need to give sports fans up to date, breaking news. Nothing the Cincinnati media did was wrong. Price just made himself and team look foolish by his outburst.
Reds manager Bryan Price lashed out in front of a group of 10 media members Monday, reportedly using the F-word 77 times and 10 more variants of other vulgarities in a five-and-a-half minute rant because he was unhappy about recent reports that in his view could be beneficial to opponents.
According to the Cincinnati Enquirer, Price said "I don't get it. It's, you know, look, I don't need you guys to be fans of the Reds." I just need to know if there's something we want to keep here, it stays here."
Price was upset that minor league promotions and demotions were hitting the press and public before the actual players were notified by the team. He was also upset with the report that catcher Devin Mesoraco was unavailable to pinch hitter due to a hip injury. "I've got to f---ing read that on a f---ing tweet on our own people in here that we don't have a f---ing player?" Price said. "How the f--- does that benefit the Reds? It doesn't benefit us one f---ing bit."
Price is naive or stupid on the role of the press in covering the Reds. He did not dispute the accuracy of any of the news reports. The press and local media is supposed to report the news on the Reds team, including roster moves before or after the official announcements by the team. The press represents the fans and public in providing information to them. The press does not work for the Reds.
Many managers are livid that beat reporters ask the same questions day after day, especially after a series of tough losses or during long losing streaks. But a basic story needs to cover the who, what, when, where, how and why a game's outcome was decided by plays and decisions by the manager.
Part of the problem is also that the professional sports teams have packaged their games with the networks in such a way as to have mutual admiration clauses in the contract to self-promote the "good" aspects of the sport. Rarely does a network criticize the NFL during the season (with the exception of player criminal cases or conduct.) Each sports league wants to "control the coverage" of their sport through their public relations marketing departments. But real life cannot be contained inside a vacuum of press releases.
Newspapers, radio and television stations are all in competition with other forms of media to attract and retain readers, listeners and viewers. In order to do so, they need to give sports fans up to date, breaking news. Nothing the Cincinnati media did was wrong. Price just made himself and team look foolish by his outburst.
December 27, 2014
NL WINTER OF DISCONTENT
The easy road to the playoffs is winning your division.
How have the NL Central teams fared so far this off season?
CUBS:
In: Jon Lester, David Ross, Jason Motte, Jason Hammel, Miguel Montero, Tommy La Stella
Out: Justin Ruggiano, Carlos Villanueva, a bunch of prospects
CARDINALS
In: Mark Reynolds, Matt Belisle, Jason Heyward, Jordan Walden, Dean Anna
Out: Daniel Descalso, Shelby Miller, Justin Masterson, A.J. Pierzynski, Jason Motte, Mark Ellis, Pat Neshek
BREWERS:
In: Adam Lind, Juan Centeno, Luis Jimenez
Out: Marco Estrada, Rickie Weeks, Francisco Rodriguez, Tom Gorzelanny, Zach Duke, Mark Reynolds, Lyle Overbay
PIRATES
In: Corey Hart, Radhames Liz, Sean Rodriguez, Antonio Bastardo, Pedro Florimon, Francisco Cervelli, Jake Elmore, Jung-Ho Kang
Out: Gaby Sanchez, Ike Davis, Justin Wilson, Russell Martin, Edinson Volquez, Clint Barmes
REDS:
In: Anthony DeSclafani, Chad Wallach, Eugenio Saurez, Jonathon Crawford, Ramon Cabrera, Neftali Soto, Matt Magill, Jose Flores
Out: Mat Latos, Alfredo Simon, Chris Heisey
At first glance, it appears the REDS are in complete demolition, tear-down mode. By trading away two starters from the deepest rotation in the division (because they would be free agents at the end of 2015) is a White Flag move before the season starts. Reds fans cannot be happy, even though the team has tried to stock pile young arms. Cincinnati appears to be a .500 club at best.
The BREWERS have been less active than the Reds, picking up one potential starter in Lind (6 HR, 40 RBI in 96 games). The Brew lost a lot of pitching depth so far this off season, so the team does appear to be falling below .500.
The CARDINALS lost a lot of pitching by trade and free agency, but the big exchange was to get Heywood to bolster a good line up of hitters. Reynolds appears to be a bench signing (insurance) in case Adams eats his way off first base. St. Louis will have to count on their young pitching pipeline to contend in 2015.
The PIRATES lost two key components: Volquez and Martin. But the addition of slick fielding Korean SS Kang is an upgrade, and upgrading the bullpen may help the starting staff. If Hart can get back to his 2012 season (30 HR, 89 RBI, .270 BA) then the Pirates will again be near the top of the division.
The CUBS player departures are insignificant in the grand scheme of things. Lester may be the best starter in the division, but the other additions do not help the team which has real trouble scoring runs. There is a concern that a Montero-Ross catching tandem is a down grade from a healthy Castillo. The Cubs may still be a sub .500 team due to the prospects trying to become major league professionals.
Overall, the NL Central has not been as active as one may have thought this winter.
How have the NL Central teams fared so far this off season?
CUBS:
In: Jon Lester, David Ross, Jason Motte, Jason Hammel, Miguel Montero, Tommy La Stella
Out: Justin Ruggiano, Carlos Villanueva, a bunch of prospects
CARDINALS
In: Mark Reynolds, Matt Belisle, Jason Heyward, Jordan Walden, Dean Anna
Out: Daniel Descalso, Shelby Miller, Justin Masterson, A.J. Pierzynski, Jason Motte, Mark Ellis, Pat Neshek
BREWERS:
In: Adam Lind, Juan Centeno, Luis Jimenez
Out: Marco Estrada, Rickie Weeks, Francisco Rodriguez, Tom Gorzelanny, Zach Duke, Mark Reynolds, Lyle Overbay
PIRATES
In: Corey Hart, Radhames Liz, Sean Rodriguez, Antonio Bastardo, Pedro Florimon, Francisco Cervelli, Jake Elmore, Jung-Ho Kang
Out: Gaby Sanchez, Ike Davis, Justin Wilson, Russell Martin, Edinson Volquez, Clint Barmes
REDS:
In: Anthony DeSclafani, Chad Wallach, Eugenio Saurez, Jonathon Crawford, Ramon Cabrera, Neftali Soto, Matt Magill, Jose Flores
Out: Mat Latos, Alfredo Simon, Chris Heisey
At first glance, it appears the REDS are in complete demolition, tear-down mode. By trading away two starters from the deepest rotation in the division (because they would be free agents at the end of 2015) is a White Flag move before the season starts. Reds fans cannot be happy, even though the team has tried to stock pile young arms. Cincinnati appears to be a .500 club at best.
The BREWERS have been less active than the Reds, picking up one potential starter in Lind (6 HR, 40 RBI in 96 games). The Brew lost a lot of pitching depth so far this off season, so the team does appear to be falling below .500.
The CARDINALS lost a lot of pitching by trade and free agency, but the big exchange was to get Heywood to bolster a good line up of hitters. Reynolds appears to be a bench signing (insurance) in case Adams eats his way off first base. St. Louis will have to count on their young pitching pipeline to contend in 2015.
The PIRATES lost two key components: Volquez and Martin. But the addition of slick fielding Korean SS Kang is an upgrade, and upgrading the bullpen may help the starting staff. If Hart can get back to his 2012 season (30 HR, 89 RBI, .270 BA) then the Pirates will again be near the top of the division.
The CUBS player departures are insignificant in the grand scheme of things. Lester may be the best starter in the division, but the other additions do not help the team which has real trouble scoring runs. There is a concern that a Montero-Ross catching tandem is a down grade from a healthy Castillo. The Cubs may still be a sub .500 team due to the prospects trying to become major league professionals.
Overall, the NL Central has not been as active as one may have thought this winter.
November 24, 2014
SEEING RED
If there was ever a team that should go "all in" in 2015, it is the Cincinnati Reds.
Yes, the Cardinals have been the dominant team in the NL Central, and the Pirates have risen from the bottom to be a contender, but the Reds have one last chance with the current core roster to make a charge.
Many rumors are spreading around the Reds trading off pieces. But some would question why.
Yes, 4/5ths of the current rotation (Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake, Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon) are all free agents following the 2015 season. That is the reason why the Reds should go all out to win in 2015. It will be nearly impossible to rebuild that rotation quickly in today's baseball economics.
In 2014, the Reds finished 76-86, 14 GB in the standings.
The team just needs to tweak the bullpen, shore up the outfield with some power and hope the injury bug does not bite them hard.
The Braves are very much shopping Justin Upton but they are requesting a higher return than they received earlier this week when they dealt their other corner outfielder, Jason Heyward.
In exchange for Heyward and reliever Jordan Walden, Atlanta received from St. Louis a pretty good starter with four years of control in Shelby Miller plus pitching prospect Tyrell Jenkins.
Like Heyward, Upton can be a free agent after this season and is due $14.5 million in 2015 compared to the $8.3 million that Heyward will earn. Nevertheless, the Braves think Upton has greater value in the trade market because his overall offense — particularly his power — is superior. Upton hit 29 homers and Heyward 11. And Upton brings righty power, which is in particularly short demand.
This would one of those "all in" one year or bust deals if the Reds took a flyer on Upton. It would send a strong message: win now, or go home. Actually, that should be every team's message every spring.
Yes, the Cardinals have been the dominant team in the NL Central, and the Pirates have risen from the bottom to be a contender, but the Reds have one last chance with the current core roster to make a charge.
Many rumors are spreading around the Reds trading off pieces. But some would question why.
Yes, 4/5ths of the current rotation (Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake, Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon) are all free agents following the 2015 season. That is the reason why the Reds should go all out to win in 2015. It will be nearly impossible to rebuild that rotation quickly in today's baseball economics.
In 2014, the Reds finished 76-86, 14 GB in the standings.
The team just needs to tweak the bullpen, shore up the outfield with some power and hope the injury bug does not bite them hard.
The Braves are very much shopping Justin Upton but they are requesting a higher return than they received earlier this week when they dealt their other corner outfielder, Jason Heyward.
In exchange for Heyward and reliever Jordan Walden, Atlanta received from St. Louis a pretty good starter with four years of control in Shelby Miller plus pitching prospect Tyrell Jenkins.
Like Heyward, Upton can be a free agent after this season and is due $14.5 million in 2015 compared to the $8.3 million that Heyward will earn. Nevertheless, the Braves think Upton has greater value in the trade market because his overall offense — particularly his power — is superior. Upton hit 29 homers and Heyward 11. And Upton brings righty power, which is in particularly short demand.
This would one of those "all in" one year or bust deals if the Reds took a flyer on Upton. It would send a strong message: win now, or go home. Actually, that should be every team's message every spring.
March 14, 2013
NL CENTRAL PROJECTIONS
As spring training begins to wind down, opening day rosters are becoming quite clear. CBS Sports published this week a projected opening day lineup and rotation with closer for each team.
Our focus is on the NL Central. In 2012, the NL Central teams (excluding the Astros, now in the AL West) won a total of 408 games. If you divide 408 wins by 5 teams, the average is 81.6 wins/team. That is consistent with the average of 81 wins for a .500 club.
Using the published projected lineups, I ranked each team position player with his divisional peer. The ranking was 5 (for the best) to 1 (for the worst). This would equate to a total possible of 210 points. For each team rank point, it would project to 1.943 wins.
For the positional players, the points from the rankings finished as follows:
Reds 29
Cards 27
Brewers 25
Pirates 24
Cubs 15
For the pitchers (5 starters and closer), the points from the rankings finished as follows:
Reds 25 & Cards 25
Pirates 15
Brewers 13
Cubs 12
Total points were:
Reds 54 = 104.92 wins
Cards 52 = 101.04 wins
Pirates 39 = 75.78 wins
Brewers 38 = 73.83 wins
Cubs 27 = 52. 46 wins
From last year's standings and this projection:
Reds 105 wins = +8 wins from 2012 (97)
Cards 101 wins = +13 wins from 2012 (88)
Pirates 76 wins = +3 more losses from 2012 (79)
Brewers 74 wins = +9 more losses from 2012 (83)
Cubs 52 wins = +9 more losses from 2012 (61)
The Cardinals may project on paper as the most improved in the division, but the difference between the Reds is not enough to overcome the gap; even if the Reds repeat the same season, the Cards gain of +5 would still leave them only with 93 wins (6 GB). There will be a battle for first place, and a close battle for third place. The Cubs appear to be the bottom feeder by a wide margin.
Our focus is on the NL Central. In 2012, the NL Central teams (excluding the Astros, now in the AL West) won a total of 408 games. If you divide 408 wins by 5 teams, the average is 81.6 wins/team. That is consistent with the average of 81 wins for a .500 club.
Using the published projected lineups, I ranked each team position player with his divisional peer. The ranking was 5 (for the best) to 1 (for the worst). This would equate to a total possible of 210 points. For each team rank point, it would project to 1.943 wins.
For the positional players, the points from the rankings finished as follows:
Reds 29
Cards 27
Brewers 25
Pirates 24
Cubs 15
For the pitchers (5 starters and closer), the points from the rankings finished as follows:
Reds 25 & Cards 25
Pirates 15
Brewers 13
Cubs 12
Total points were:
Reds 54 = 104.92 wins
Cards 52 = 101.04 wins
Pirates 39 = 75.78 wins
Brewers 38 = 73.83 wins
Cubs 27 = 52. 46 wins
From last year's standings and this projection:
Reds 105 wins = +8 wins from 2012 (97)
Cards 101 wins = +13 wins from 2012 (88)
Pirates 76 wins = +3 more losses from 2012 (79)
Brewers 74 wins = +9 more losses from 2012 (83)
Cubs 52 wins = +9 more losses from 2012 (61)
The Cardinals may project on paper as the most improved in the division, but the difference between the Reds is not enough to overcome the gap; even if the Reds repeat the same season, the Cards gain of +5 would still leave them only with 93 wins (6 GB). There will be a battle for first place, and a close battle for third place. The Cubs appear to be the bottom feeder by a wide margin.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)