May 8, 2013

DIAMONDS IN THE ROUGH

As of this morning, the Cubs have the second best team ERA at 3.73. Most people will not realize how well the Cubs starters (with one exception) have been so far this season.

Wood is 3-2, 2.33 ERA, 0.928 WHIP
Villaneuva is 1-2, 2.85 ERA, 0.928 WHIP
Feldman is 3-3, 2.70 ERA, 1.118 WHIP
Samardzija is 1-4, 3.09 ERA, 1.168 WHIP
E. Jackson is 0-5, 6.39 ERA, 1.632 WHIP.

The starting rotation has pitched in 33 games. They have combined to throw 205.2 IP. This averages out to 6.1 IP/start. The starters combined ERA is 3.41. The starters record is 8-16. The team's record is 13-20. (The bullpen is 5-4).

The Cubs starters have only given up 78 ER. However, the team has allowed 93 runs to score during their time on the mound. The Cubs defense has given up 16% more runs due to poor play in the field.

The Cubs lack of offense and defensive lapses have overshadowed the stellar pitching performances of Wood, Villaneuva, Feldman (especially his last two starts) and Samardzija.

May 7, 2013

HERO WORSHIP

On CSN-Chicago last night, the sports panel continued to fawn over Kerry Wood and his 20 strikeout performance against the Astros. It was early in Wood's career, and showed the Cub nation his potential. Potential that would quickly fade to a broken career.

The panel said Wood's 20k performance was "the greatest game ever." That is an insane and delusional comment. The hero worship of Wood has gotten out of hand. It may be a fond memory for some people, but it does not rank as the greatest game ever. It is not even close.

What about the 21 no-hitters pitched in the majors?

Or the greatest feat in history of the game on its biggest stage: the most famous perfect game in baseball history belongs to Don Larsen of the New York Yankees.

The only perfect game in World Series history, Larsen’s came on October 8, 1956 during Game 5 of the series. He struck out seven Brooklyn Dodgers and only allowed one 3-ball count (and that came in the first inning).


In all, Larsen only needed 97 pitches to dispatch the 27 Dodgers who stepped to the plate.


Or what about what  “Red” Barrett of the Boston Braves accomplished on August 10, 1944.

Barrett pitched a complete game, 2-hitter against the Cincinnati Reds – and only needed 58 pitches to do it.
He walked and struck out nobody. The game took only one hour and fifteen minutes.

Or what about baseball's golden era's best pitcher, Sandy Koufax? He threw four no-hitters, second only to Nolan Ryan’s 7, but his perfect game on September 9, 1965 was his finest. Koufax struck out 14 Chicago Cubs, the most strikeouts ever recorded in a perfect game.

Or what about the greatest "loss" ever by a pitcher? 

On May 26, 1959, Pittsburgh Pirates starter Harvey Haddix  retired 36 straight Milwaukee Braves, only to eventually lose the game. In one of the most amazing games in baseball history, Haddix dazzled for 12 straight innings, allowing not a single base runner. The problem was his team was struggling on their own against Braves starter Lew Burdette. They had managed 12 hits in the game, but Burdette scattered them and didn’t allow a run.

In the 13th inning, Haddix allowed the leadoff hitter to reach on an error, ending his bid for perfection. The next hitter sacrificed, and then Haddix intentionally walked Hank Aaron. Next, Joe Adcock hit what looked like a home run, but it was ruled a double when Adcock passed Aaron rounding the bases.


Haddix lost the no-hitter, shutout, and game 1-0.


There are hundreds of other examples of great pitching performances throughout the history of baseball. Wood's 20k outing is a footnote. It does not compare to the historical or unique game examples cited above. Sports fans tend to dwell on the silver lining moments in dreadful losing seasons. The Cubs have been losers so long that now they tend to worship their own losers. Wood should have been better, but in typical Cub fashion, his career crashed and burned by injury. Sports fans now gravitate toward Wood because he is a nice guy - - - who finished last.

Wood was 86-75 in his 14 year career. He had 63 saves. His career ERA was 3.67 and 1.267 WHIP. He is not a Hall of Fame candidate. He was not the best pitcher in his era. The last time he had a season WAR over 2.0 was 2005. He was supposed to be the next Nolan Ryan.

But Ryan lasted 27 years in the majors. He compiled a 324-292 record. His career ERA was 3.19 and 1.247 WHIP. Ryan is a Hall of Fame pitcher for a reason.  

Cub fans need some perspective on Kerry Wood.  

May 6, 2013

OLD RAGS FROM THE ATTIC

Baseball is full of sentimentalists. They hold on to history. The problem is when general managers hold on to players who are just bad.  One way to keep them in the hope bin is put them in the minors in an attempt to turn around a career.

The Sun-Times reported that Ian Stewart has been optioned to Iowa, where he was making a muck of his rehab assignment. This means Stewart is a minor leaguer. Luis Valbuena and Cody Ransom are the Cubs third basemen for this season. Stewart has been packed away to the Cub attic.

Dave Sappelt is also being optioned to that AAA purgatory. It is reported that the Cubs will promote outfielder Ryan Sweeney to replace Sappelt. This puts another left handed hitting outfielder on the roster, leaving Soriano and Hairston the two right handed OF bats. Sweeney has a Boston connection so it is no surprise he was called up.

BASEBALL IS FAILURE

It has been said that the baseball is a game of failure. Even the best hitters in the game only get base hits one third of the time. It is how players and teams react and adjust to these failures which leads to success. Most managers will say after a tough loss that the players have to put that game behind them. The focus is on the game at hand not in the rear view mirror.

But baseball is also a game of repetition. Bad habits are hard to break. Mental depression over poor outings spill over into the next appearance. Some batters in a slump try too hard. It turns into a growing cascade of failure.

The Cubs seem to be in a waterfall of doubt. The team has lost five of the last six games. At 11-20, the Cubs are 9 games out of first place after a month of the season.

As beat writer Bruce Miles pointed out in the Daily Herald:

Former closer Carlos Marmol is now routinely booed by fans. Marmol is 2-2, 2 saves, 5.68 ERA, 1.816 WHIP

Expensive free agent starter Edwin Jackson now sports a record of  0-5 with a  6.39 ERA.   Only 2 of Jackson's 7 starts have been quality starts.

Dale Sveum's last season's MVP, reliever Shawn Camp, has been as ineffective as Marmol.  Camp gave up 2 runs and 2 hits in 1 inning Sunday. He has an ERA of 8.03 and a WHIP of 1.86 as he has allowed 18 hits and 5 walks in 1213 innings. "He's really having a hard time getting anybody out right now," the manager said. "His stuff is flat, and nothing's really real crisp right now at all with him."

The offense was 2-for-12 with runners in scoring position, making it 44-for-243 (.181) on the season. 

Second baseman Darwin Barney was 0-for-4, as his batting average fell to .159. Barney is not the only problem on offense, but he left five runners on to end three innings. On the home stand, he's 3-for-21.

"It's not fun coming up in big situations and not coming through," Barney said. "When you've got guys with runners in scoring position, things just aren't falling. I put some good swings on balls in those situations and they end up right at guys. But other than that, I just haven't been executing my plan very much."

So the batters are pressing and the pitchers are throwing flat. There is a snowball effect of failure happening to the Cubs. There is not one area of play that the team can say with certainty that can right their listing ship. The Cubs defense is spotty; the Cubs hitting is poor; the Cubs pitching and bullpen is suspect; and overall team baseball IQ is stuck in neutral.

UPDATE: Cubs pitching coach Chris Bosio confirms this hypothesis. 

He said  Marmol is rushing his delivery and at times “trying too hard,” Bosio said Sunday in a Sun-Times article.  “The biggest thing for Carlos is his concentration [on] executing the pitch” Bosio said. “I think where Carlos gets in trouble — along with the rest of the guys — is when they get going too fast. [Saturday] was a classic case of that."
 

May 2, 2013

EARLY NUMBERS

After 27 games into the season, the Cubs stand at 11-16 (.407 winning percentage) in last place in the NL Central.

No one expected the Cubs to be near the top of the standings. 

But looking at the team WAR (Wins Above Replacement) an odd trend appears with these Cubs.

A replacement team roster would be expected to have 8.64 wins in 27 games.

The Cubs current team WAR is 6.0 (2.3 for batters and 3.7 for pitching).

Under the sabermetric, the Cubs should have 14.64 wins.

This shows that the Cubs are losing 25 percent more games that would be expected from their gross pitching and batting statistics.

How can that be?

There are two prime ways the Cubs win total is depressed: untimely hitting and wasted quality starts. The Cubs are 4-14 in quality start games. This shows the bullpen has been horrible during the first few weeks of the season. The Cubs cannot score with runners in scoring position. The team batting average is .237. Its OBP is .292. Its average for RISP is less than .150, near last the league.

Despite the offensive failings, the Cubs have been in close games throughout the season (even though most of their success has been by beating the Marlins, a Class AA 1/2 squad, and the Padres, a Class AAA 1/2 team.)

The Cubs are on pace to lose 96 games, which is an improvement from 2012's 101 loss campaign.

May 1, 2013

TANTRUM

Tom Ricketts sounds like a spoiled child having a tantrum.

Unless his grand plan for Wrigley is approved, he will move the team.

Most people believe it is an idle threat with no logical basis. Wrigley Field, not the Cubs, has been the main draw for fans for a century.

"The fact is that if we don't have the ability to generate revenue in our own outfield, we'll have to take a look at moving -- no question," Ricketts said.

But to where? The Rosemont IL mayor has offered 25 acres of expressway underpass next to O'Hare Field, but that property will have airport noise and traffic issues. When the White Sox threatened to leave Chicago (to extort the public ball park called the Cell), a parcel in Addison was selected as a possible landing area. Also, as the horse racing industry is dying without casino gambling permits, Arlington Park Racetrack in the Northwest Suburbs could be another logical relocation site. But all those alternatives cost time and money, something that impatient Tom Ricketts does not want to deal with as of today.

"I'm not sure how anyone is going to stop the signs in the outfield, but if it comes to the point that we don't have the ability to do what we need to do in our outfield, then we're going to have to consider moving," Ricketts said.

The signs in the outfield can be stopped by the city, the landmark commission and the courts. In 1985, the Tribune challenged the city's landmark ordinance which prohibits any structural changes to Wrigley, including adding signage in the outfield. The Illinois Supreme Court upheld the ordinance. Ricketts bought the team knowing the restrictions on Wrigley Field. He can't cry foul now when his "guaranteed sell outs" in attendance have been falling for the last three seasons.

And the neighbors have a say in any zoning variances and changes in their community. The city council will need to approve this massive redevelopment project. What is more troubling from a health and safety perspective is that the new renderings show that the Wrigley foot print will grow to squeeze out all public walkways around the park, except for the large triangle plaza which will be filled with video obelisks and more signage on a 6 story retail building.

And finally, the rooftop owners can sue to enforce their 20 year contract agreement with the Cubs which provides them an unobstructed view into Wrigley in exchange for the Cubs getting 17 percent of the gross revenue.

"The fact that we are limited on advertising in our own outfield has an annualized opportunity cost of $20 million," Ricketts said. "These limits on advertising are obvious because of our relationship with the rooftops across the street.

"The rooftops have grossed over $250 million in the last 10 years. And while I think many people view rooftops as incremental group events, over time they have shifted to selling individual tickets and have become direct competitors, selling both season tickets and aggressively discounting tickets on Groupon and other sites."

And here is the real rub: Ricketts is mad that there are better businessmen than him. Ricketts is mad that some rooftop owners are providing a better fan experience than his box seats or luxury suites. He sees himself as the only person who is entitled to 100 percent of any revenue generated by the Cubs.

This line of reasoning sounds like the little boy telling his teacher that his dog ate his homework. Tom told his father that the Cubs were a cash making machine, win or lose. But since the Cubs have been losing, the Cubs have been losing revenue. So Ricketts needs a fall guy for his bad business decisions. He found it with the rooftop owners.

Advertising executives dispute whether the new LF scoreboard and signage inside the park will gross any more than $5 million a season (and not the $20 million Ricketts is now claiming).  But if you do the simple math, the rooftop owners are paying the Cubs $4.25 million a year with the Cubs not spending a dime. Ricketts is willing to go to war over a possible $750,000 more in ad revenue?  And if Ricketts is willing to pay the cost for breaching the agreement, is he willing to pay $200 million in damages to possibly collect the same amount of money from the new signs over the next 10 years?

The only explanation is the Cubs spite against the neighboring businesses.

"All we really need is to be able to run our business like a business and not a museum," Ricketts told the audience.

But the fact is Ricketts is running a museum. During games, he advertises the "Wrigley Field Tours." He actively promotes the history of Wrigley Field.  It is a bit condescending to say to the public that Wrigley Field is in such poor condition when you had the opportunity to negotiate the purchase price with the Tribune to take account all the costs of rehabilitation Wrigley Field, like any buyer of a residential property would have done with their seller. If Ricketts overpaid for a money pit that is Wrigley Field, whose fault is that?

SPENDING MONEY

One of the keys to a successful baseball organization is spending money wisely.

This week raises questions on how well the Cubs have been spending their payroll budget. Just look at a few players in the news this week:

Jorge Soler has had his second mental flare up in a month. The Cubs signed him to a $30 million deal.
Geraldo Concepcion is missing in action. The Cubs signed him to a $6 million deal.
Edwin Jackson currently has the 103rd best ERA in the majors. The Cubs signed him to a $52 million deal.

In just three players, the Cubs have invested $88 million. To put that in perspective, those three players alone are the equivalent cost of 29.3 percent of Tom Ricketts massive Wrigley expansion project.

Then there is the re-signing of Ian Stewart. He was a total bust last season after the big trade with Colorado. But the Cubs decided to re-sign Stewart to a $2 million contract for 2013. Then he got hurt (surprise). The time is running out on his rehab assignment in Iowa. It looks bad. Stewart is only batting .100, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 4 errors and a woeful .846 fielding percentage at third base. He does not deserve a major league roster spot.

So the new front office has spend $90 million with almost zero major league returns.

No wonder Ricketts thinks he needs as much new revenue streams as the ball park could hold because the baseball team is burning through millions in dead money.