The Savior came to the majors last night.
He went 1-6, 1 HR, 1 RBI and 1 GWRBI.
My initial impression of Javy Baez's start:
1. He has an extremely long swing. Whether his fast bat speed is enough to adapt to major league pitching speed changes and breaking balls is going to be the key to success.
2. He was batting in the second hole, so he was told to take more pitches. It was probably to calm his nerves and make him think situationally at the plate. The manager indicated that Baez will stay in the No. 2 slot in the order.
3. Free swingers typically have more streaks, good and bad. His approach to hitting seems more like a young Starlin Castro than an Anthony Rizzo. By promoting him during a lost season, the team is hoping Baez can learn how to get out of cold streaks and make adjustments before next year. If called to make a guess, Baez will be like Castro but with a lower batting average and more home runs.
4. First impressions can be deceiving, especially if a fan buys into the hype. Recall Junior Lake exploded onto the scene last year in his first professional series.
5. I don't know if he will stay at second base. Alcantara is a smoother defender at second. But there is general philosophy by the Cubs that the players are good athletes and good athletes can adapt and play many positions. I think that generalization only goes so far. Defensively, Baez may have better skill sets at third. But then, Kris Bryant is currently at AAA third, but now projects to being a corner outfielder. But Jorge Soler is going to be promoted in September, also as a corner outfielder. In some scouting reports, Baez also projects to being a corner outfielder.
August 6, 2014
MYTHS AND REALITY
It is getting harder to slash through the propaganda thicket of the Cubs public relations department. One of the soothing fairy tales making the rounds this year is that the Cubs will be in excellent shape to go out and acquire top pitching free agents.
The story goes that since the Cubs failed to get Tanaka or another major free agent last year, the $75 million plus price tag has been "saved" for future acquisitions.
Except, that cannot be possibly true.
Ricketts and the business side of the club does not give Theo and company a pot of money each season to "bank" and spend whenever they choose. Since the various articles dealing with the Cubs finances have been making the rounds, a pattern has emerged that the Cubs loan covenants that tie payroll to attendance hogtie the team from making any major moves. Loan covenants are complex and one sided assurances written by banks to protect their money. An approval of an annual budget, including payroll, would be a standard covenant for bank approval. So the baseball operations is not "banking" in a free agency savings account millions of dollars while the team tanks.
The other part of the story is that the Cubs will be aggressive buyers this off-season. They will be players in the free agent pitching market, going after Jon Lester or James Shields. But the reality is that the Cubs don't have $100 million to spend on one player. And the reality is that spending $100 million on a starting pitcher for 2015 does not make the club any better or thrust it into divisional contention. Besides, the business model has been to trade away expensive starting pitching (Garza, Dempster, Maholm, Feldman, Smardzija and Hammel).
The Cubs have to have some story to keep the fans coming to the park through the end of the year. The Cubs need to have a better story to get season ticket holders to renew this winter. The team can't be as bold as Jerry Jones of the Cowboys who printed and sent playoff tickets to his 2014 season ticket holders.
The current core pitchers, Arrieta, T. Wood and E. Jackson, won't be around when the time comes to actually build a contending pitching staff. The team won't spend a fortune on starters until the inexpensive home grown talent takes root at Wrigley. The plan is to have low cost position players as starting fielders. Then, the team can buy proven veteran pitchers instead of developing a staff. But if the Cubs prospects don't pan out as a class, then the incentive is increased to not spend any money at all. Then, the Cubs will have to start over again.
The story goes that since the Cubs failed to get Tanaka or another major free agent last year, the $75 million plus price tag has been "saved" for future acquisitions.
Except, that cannot be possibly true.
Ricketts and the business side of the club does not give Theo and company a pot of money each season to "bank" and spend whenever they choose. Since the various articles dealing with the Cubs finances have been making the rounds, a pattern has emerged that the Cubs loan covenants that tie payroll to attendance hogtie the team from making any major moves. Loan covenants are complex and one sided assurances written by banks to protect their money. An approval of an annual budget, including payroll, would be a standard covenant for bank approval. So the baseball operations is not "banking" in a free agency savings account millions of dollars while the team tanks.
The other part of the story is that the Cubs will be aggressive buyers this off-season. They will be players in the free agent pitching market, going after Jon Lester or James Shields. But the reality is that the Cubs don't have $100 million to spend on one player. And the reality is that spending $100 million on a starting pitcher for 2015 does not make the club any better or thrust it into divisional contention. Besides, the business model has been to trade away expensive starting pitching (Garza, Dempster, Maholm, Feldman, Smardzija and Hammel).
The Cubs have to have some story to keep the fans coming to the park through the end of the year. The Cubs need to have a better story to get season ticket holders to renew this winter. The team can't be as bold as Jerry Jones of the Cowboys who printed and sent playoff tickets to his 2014 season ticket holders.
The current core pitchers, Arrieta, T. Wood and E. Jackson, won't be around when the time comes to actually build a contending pitching staff. The team won't spend a fortune on starters until the inexpensive home grown talent takes root at Wrigley. The plan is to have low cost position players as starting fielders. Then, the team can buy proven veteran pitchers instead of developing a staff. But if the Cubs prospects don't pan out as a class, then the incentive is increased to not spend any money at all. Then, the Cubs will have to start over again.
August 5, 2014
THE TEASE
Rick Morrissey and Rick Telander were on the sportstalk TV show and basically lamented that the Cubs rebuilding process is nearing a brick wall from their interest. They acknowledge that the Cub front office has a plan. They have heard all about these great prospects. They are aware of the task of rebuilding an entire minor league system. But they have come around to the notion that it is unfair to the fans not to have a competitive team on the field.
It has finally begun to sink into local writers that the Cubs plan is narrow and short sighted. Morrissey finally asked the real question: it is fine to concentrate on rebuilding the minors, but there is no rule against building a major league roster at the same time.
The Cubs have created their own new front office mythology that the Boston guys are working their magic that got the Red Sox two championships. The Red Sox made big trades and signed free agents in order to become a championship team. It was not a fully home grown team.
And the writers now believe that they have heard enough of "hope" and "prospect" and "the plan" to care less. Players are only prospects when they are not on the major league field. And we can only tell if they are any good if and when they reach the major league diamond. Until then, the discussion is irrelevant because fans of the Cubs want to see major league victories, not illusory minor league fantasy stats.
And they also raise the nuclear question. What if four years down the road, the majority of the prospects don't pan out, and the Cubs continue to muddle with 90 loss seasons?
David Kaplan remarked that the front office would be fired. But that does not make up for seven seasons of futility. Telander even made the point that the team does have a covenant with their long time and loyal fans to put a major league product on the field. And the Cubs have not been doing their duty. And that is why many fans are upset with their team.
For whatever reason, whether it is pure stubbornness, stupidity or financial restraints, the front office is not changing the way it is operating the major league team. They continue to tear down the roster by trading away major league talent for minor league prospects. The pantry shelf is now bare; Starlin Castro is now the longest tenured Cub on the roster. And when James Russell and Emilio Bonifacio were traded at the deadline, their teammates seemed happy that they were leaving the team to go to a better club and a chance to win. Some fans react to this in a depressed way, thinking the Cubs have become the Walmart of the Majors - - - a discount store for major league players for other clubs.
Unless catching prospect Victor Caratini turns out to be the next Johnny Bench, the Cubs effectively traded $6.5 million in assets to the Braves for nothing. And that is a bitter pill to swallow.
The team's off off-Broadway production of HOPE is ending. If the writers have come around to find it a joke to continue to promote a dead horse, the general public is not that far behind (or ahead of the curve with the declining attendance numbers).
But the show may turn into a tease soon enough. The current roster is so thin now, there is nothing stopping a promotion of any prospect. In fact, rumor has it that Jorge Soler will be at least a September call up because he would have been through a third of his $30 million/9 year contract. Fans would also like to see Javy Baez in September, but Jed Hoyer continues to knock down his time table (in a small market ritual to keep better prospects from earning service time "too soon" as to accelerate arbitration years).
It has finally begun to sink into local writers that the Cubs plan is narrow and short sighted. Morrissey finally asked the real question: it is fine to concentrate on rebuilding the minors, but there is no rule against building a major league roster at the same time.
The Cubs have created their own new front office mythology that the Boston guys are working their magic that got the Red Sox two championships. The Red Sox made big trades and signed free agents in order to become a championship team. It was not a fully home grown team.
And the writers now believe that they have heard enough of "hope" and "prospect" and "the plan" to care less. Players are only prospects when they are not on the major league field. And we can only tell if they are any good if and when they reach the major league diamond. Until then, the discussion is irrelevant because fans of the Cubs want to see major league victories, not illusory minor league fantasy stats.
And they also raise the nuclear question. What if four years down the road, the majority of the prospects don't pan out, and the Cubs continue to muddle with 90 loss seasons?
David Kaplan remarked that the front office would be fired. But that does not make up for seven seasons of futility. Telander even made the point that the team does have a covenant with their long time and loyal fans to put a major league product on the field. And the Cubs have not been doing their duty. And that is why many fans are upset with their team.
For whatever reason, whether it is pure stubbornness, stupidity or financial restraints, the front office is not changing the way it is operating the major league team. They continue to tear down the roster by trading away major league talent for minor league prospects. The pantry shelf is now bare; Starlin Castro is now the longest tenured Cub on the roster. And when James Russell and Emilio Bonifacio were traded at the deadline, their teammates seemed happy that they were leaving the team to go to a better club and a chance to win. Some fans react to this in a depressed way, thinking the Cubs have become the Walmart of the Majors - - - a discount store for major league players for other clubs.
Unless catching prospect Victor Caratini turns out to be the next Johnny Bench, the Cubs effectively traded $6.5 million in assets to the Braves for nothing. And that is a bitter pill to swallow.
The team's off off-Broadway production of HOPE is ending. If the writers have come around to find it a joke to continue to promote a dead horse, the general public is not that far behind (or ahead of the curve with the declining attendance numbers).
But the show may turn into a tease soon enough. The current roster is so thin now, there is nothing stopping a promotion of any prospect. In fact, rumor has it that Jorge Soler will be at least a September call up because he would have been through a third of his $30 million/9 year contract. Fans would also like to see Javy Baez in September, but Jed Hoyer continues to knock down his time table (in a small market ritual to keep better prospects from earning service time "too soon" as to accelerate arbitration years).
August 3, 2014
THE PRICE IS LOW
Jed Hoyer was on the sportscasts late last week after the trade deadline. He continued to mutter the mantra that "hopefully" the Cubs won't be sellers next year; that "hopefully" their top prospects will be reaching the majors soon; and "hopefully" things will fall into place so they can go out and get pitching a few years afterward.
Hope does not float a boat.
The trade of two major leaguers, Russell and Bonifacio, for a Class A catcher and CASH makes sense only if you believe David Kaplan's statement that the Cubs are tied by their loan covenants to only have a payroll of 110 percent of attendance revenue. The trade was a salary dump and a cash infusion for the Cubs. However, other reports indicate it was the Cubs who gave Atlanta a million dollars to "get the prospect they wanted." (If so, the move would be double the amount owed Russell and Bonifacio for the rest of the season, so the Braves get two major leaguers for free (?) What kind of deal is that for the Cubs?). Putting the moves for the past several seasons, and salary dumps together, there is more circumstantial evidence that the Cubs do not have the fiscal pieces to make any significant changes to the ball club. One caveat to this analysis is that the Cubs sported a $144 million payroll at peak attendance; but now payroll has been slashed in half (but attendance has not). If the lenders are pressing loan covenants on the team, that means the bankers are not comfortable with their loan risk, even if the club is current in its payments.
Cubs peak attendance was around 3.2 million fans. Current projects show this season to be close to 2.4 million. That is a 25 percent drop under Ricketts ownership. Using the Cubs own internal revenue number per fan attending games, the Cubs lose $56 million in revenue this year from the peak years.
But still, at 2.4 million fans at an average face ticket price of $35 million, the payroll budget would still be around $92 million, and not at its current $75 million level. The "savings" has to go somewhere - - - to debt service or to the ever-changing Wrigley renovation plans.
There is also conflicting information on the broadcast fees. The Tribune has reported that the old WGN-TV deal paid the Cubs $250,000 per game while Comcast pays $500,000 per game. Earlier reports had Comcast only paying $350,000 per game. Even if the Cubs wanted to raise the rights fees $100,000 a WGN contest, that is only maybe another $5 million per season. With all the additional signage in Wrigley, advertising executives speculate that it will only bring in perhaps $10 to $14 million in new revenue. So basically, the Cubs cannot make up lost attendance revenue from new broadcast fees or additional Wrigley advertising.
And it appears despite all the "hope" messages, the financial situation is not going to change. The real problem is that people will not commit to a season of premium major league prices for minor league talent. The Cubs front office is positioning itself to have the playing field occupied by players at the major league minimum salary levels in half of those positions (LF, CF, 3B, 2B). A team dominated by rookie minimum salary prospects is the definition of a struggling small market team.
If we assume that the debt and ownership structure prevents the Cubs from operating like a real baseball team, then Ricketts is solely blame for accepting those terms. It also shows that if the payroll is so fixed that the team cannot truly make deals to bring in high quality players like David Price because their salaries breach a loan agreement, then the franchise is in quicksand.
Tampa Bay gave away Price to the Tigers.
The Tigers acquired David Price from the Rays by trading Tigers center fielder Austin Jackson to the Mariners, with Nick Franklin (from Seattle) and Drew Smyly (from Detroit) heading to Tampa. Minor league shortstop Willy Adames is also going to Tampa from Detroit in the deal
MLBTR notes that the move brings and end to near-ceaseless speculation regarding the now-former Rays lefty, who has been one of the game’s best pitchers in recent seasons. Still only 28, Price is under control for one more season through arbitration, though he will certainly not come cheap.
Playing this year on a $14 million salary, Price will be in line for a big raise next year. Of course, one key element of his value lies in the fact that his new club will have an opportunity to explore an extension. The reason that Price figures to draw a big salary next year is obvious: he has continued to be outstanding. At present, he owns a 3.11 ERA with a remarkable 10.0 K/9 against just 1.2 BB/9 over 170 2/3 innings.
The return for the Rays is not particularly splashy, but delivers obvious value. Smyly, 25, was outstanding last year as a reliever and has since converted into a solid starting option. He carries a 3.77 ERA through 100 1/3 innings, with 7.8 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 and a 36.9% ground ball rate. While his strikeout numbers are down since moving to the rotation, he can be controlled through 2018.
The 23-year-old Franklin, meanwhile, seemed without a future in Seattle after the club added Robinson Cano. Though he has spent time at both short and second, many observers believe he is better suited for the keystone going forward. He had a solid 2013 at the MLB level (.225/.303/.382 in 412 plate appearances), and though his numbers were off this year in limited action, Franklin has continued to swing a big stick against Triple-A pitchers.
Then, there is Adames, who could be something of a wild card in the deal. Just 18, he has a promising .269/.346/.428 slash line through 400 plate appearances at the low-A level this year. He entered the year as Baseball America’s 30th-ranked Tigers prospect, but appears to be raising eyebrows around the game.
Seattle managed to address its center field need without giving up an indispensable prospects of the future. In fact, the 27-year-old Jackson will be at least a mid-term piece for Seattle. He is playing on a $6MM salary this year before hitting arbitration for the final time. He currently sports a .270/.330/.397 line that is approximately league average (as it was last year). With solid contributions in the field and on the bases, the Marineres believe he is certainly an above-average big league starter.
The Rays were still in playoff striking distance when the trade was made, signaling a white flag moment for the team. The Rays could have kept Price and traded him in the off-season. The only upside of the trade for Tampa is that they got three players who they can control and manage salary effectively for the next few years.
But Detroit now has a powerhouse post-season pitching staff, anchored now by the last THREE Cy Young Award Winners. It is a trade like this that moves the fan interest needle to HIGH. Clearly, based on the players moved, the Cubs had enough prospects and bodies to acquire Price from Tampa, but the Cubs (being perpetual sellers) were not even in any reported trade conversation. If the Cubs cannot make blockbuster deals for major league stars now, what is going to change this off-season to make it happen?
Hope does not float a boat.
The trade of two major leaguers, Russell and Bonifacio, for a Class A catcher and CASH makes sense only if you believe David Kaplan's statement that the Cubs are tied by their loan covenants to only have a payroll of 110 percent of attendance revenue. The trade was a salary dump and a cash infusion for the Cubs. However, other reports indicate it was the Cubs who gave Atlanta a million dollars to "get the prospect they wanted." (If so, the move would be double the amount owed Russell and Bonifacio for the rest of the season, so the Braves get two major leaguers for free (?) What kind of deal is that for the Cubs?). Putting the moves for the past several seasons, and salary dumps together, there is more circumstantial evidence that the Cubs do not have the fiscal pieces to make any significant changes to the ball club. One caveat to this analysis is that the Cubs sported a $144 million payroll at peak attendance; but now payroll has been slashed in half (but attendance has not). If the lenders are pressing loan covenants on the team, that means the bankers are not comfortable with their loan risk, even if the club is current in its payments.
Cubs peak attendance was around 3.2 million fans. Current projects show this season to be close to 2.4 million. That is a 25 percent drop under Ricketts ownership. Using the Cubs own internal revenue number per fan attending games, the Cubs lose $56 million in revenue this year from the peak years.
But still, at 2.4 million fans at an average face ticket price of $35 million, the payroll budget would still be around $92 million, and not at its current $75 million level. The "savings" has to go somewhere - - - to debt service or to the ever-changing Wrigley renovation plans.
There is also conflicting information on the broadcast fees. The Tribune has reported that the old WGN-TV deal paid the Cubs $250,000 per game while Comcast pays $500,000 per game. Earlier reports had Comcast only paying $350,000 per game. Even if the Cubs wanted to raise the rights fees $100,000 a WGN contest, that is only maybe another $5 million per season. With all the additional signage in Wrigley, advertising executives speculate that it will only bring in perhaps $10 to $14 million in new revenue. So basically, the Cubs cannot make up lost attendance revenue from new broadcast fees or additional Wrigley advertising.
And it appears despite all the "hope" messages, the financial situation is not going to change. The real problem is that people will not commit to a season of premium major league prices for minor league talent. The Cubs front office is positioning itself to have the playing field occupied by players at the major league minimum salary levels in half of those positions (LF, CF, 3B, 2B). A team dominated by rookie minimum salary prospects is the definition of a struggling small market team.
If we assume that the debt and ownership structure prevents the Cubs from operating like a real baseball team, then Ricketts is solely blame for accepting those terms. It also shows that if the payroll is so fixed that the team cannot truly make deals to bring in high quality players like David Price because their salaries breach a loan agreement, then the franchise is in quicksand.
Tampa Bay gave away Price to the Tigers.
The Tigers acquired David Price from the Rays by trading Tigers center fielder Austin Jackson to the Mariners, with Nick Franklin (from Seattle) and Drew Smyly (from Detroit) heading to Tampa. Minor league shortstop Willy Adames is also going to Tampa from Detroit in the deal
MLBTR notes that the move brings and end to near-ceaseless speculation regarding the now-former Rays lefty, who has been one of the game’s best pitchers in recent seasons. Still only 28, Price is under control for one more season through arbitration, though he will certainly not come cheap.
Playing this year on a $14 million salary, Price will be in line for a big raise next year. Of course, one key element of his value lies in the fact that his new club will have an opportunity to explore an extension. The reason that Price figures to draw a big salary next year is obvious: he has continued to be outstanding. At present, he owns a 3.11 ERA with a remarkable 10.0 K/9 against just 1.2 BB/9 over 170 2/3 innings.
The return for the Rays is not particularly splashy, but delivers obvious value. Smyly, 25, was outstanding last year as a reliever and has since converted into a solid starting option. He carries a 3.77 ERA through 100 1/3 innings, with 7.8 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 and a 36.9% ground ball rate. While his strikeout numbers are down since moving to the rotation, he can be controlled through 2018.
The 23-year-old Franklin, meanwhile, seemed without a future in Seattle after the club added Robinson Cano. Though he has spent time at both short and second, many observers believe he is better suited for the keystone going forward. He had a solid 2013 at the MLB level (.225/.303/.382 in 412 plate appearances), and though his numbers were off this year in limited action, Franklin has continued to swing a big stick against Triple-A pitchers.
Then, there is Adames, who could be something of a wild card in the deal. Just 18, he has a promising .269/.346/.428 slash line through 400 plate appearances at the low-A level this year. He entered the year as Baseball America’s 30th-ranked Tigers prospect, but appears to be raising eyebrows around the game.
Seattle managed to address its center field need without giving up an indispensable prospects of the future. In fact, the 27-year-old Jackson will be at least a mid-term piece for Seattle. He is playing on a $6MM salary this year before hitting arbitration for the final time. He currently sports a .270/.330/.397 line that is approximately league average (as it was last year). With solid contributions in the field and on the bases, the Marineres believe he is certainly an above-average big league starter.
The Rays were still in playoff striking distance when the trade was made, signaling a white flag moment for the team. The Rays could have kept Price and traded him in the off-season. The only upside of the trade for Tampa is that they got three players who they can control and manage salary effectively for the next few years.
But Detroit now has a powerhouse post-season pitching staff, anchored now by the last THREE Cy Young Award Winners. It is a trade like this that moves the fan interest needle to HIGH. Clearly, based on the players moved, the Cubs had enough prospects and bodies to acquire Price from Tampa, but the Cubs (being perpetual sellers) were not even in any reported trade conversation. If the Cubs cannot make blockbuster deals for major league stars now, what is going to change this off-season to make it happen?
August 2, 2014
NOT WINNING SOON
When the Cubs traded James Russell and Emilo Bonafacio to the Braves, one would have hoped the package would return a major league ready player. You know, trading two players on your active roster should bring something back, right?
Russell and Bonifacio traded for a 20 year old Class A catcher named Victor Caratini, my immediate thought is that the Cubs really don't want to win very soon.
Look at the trades made and the return:
Samardzija for Russell (AA), not coming to majors until 2015-16.
Hammel for McKinney (A), not coming to the majors until 2016-18.
Straily (AAA) may not be a replacement level starter in 2015.
Russell and Bonifacio for Caratini (A), not coming to majors if at all until 2018-2019.
Barney for J. Martinez (A), not coming to the majors if at all until 2018-2019.
PTBNL for Doubrount, who may pitch in #5 starter rotation mix in 2014 or 2015.
So the Cubs traded five players on the major league roster for
one (1) pitcher who was demoted to the bullpen;
one (1) pitcher who was demoted to AAA; and
four (4) prospects with various degrees of hype.
Russell and Bonifacio traded for a 20 year old Class A catcher named Victor Caratini, my immediate thought is that the Cubs really don't want to win very soon.
Look at the trades made and the return:
Samardzija for Russell (AA), not coming to majors until 2015-16.
Hammel for McKinney (A), not coming to the majors until 2016-18.
Straily (AAA) may not be a replacement level starter in 2015.
Russell and Bonifacio for Caratini (A), not coming to majors if at all until 2018-2019.
Barney for J. Martinez (A), not coming to the majors if at all until 2018-2019.
PTBNL for Doubrount, who may pitch in #5 starter rotation mix in 2014 or 2015.
So the Cubs traded five players on the major league roster for
one (1) pitcher who was demoted to the bullpen;
one (1) pitcher who was demoted to AAA; and
four (4) prospects with various degrees of hype.
SHOPPING LIST
The very active Oakland A's traded the following players this season:
LHP Millone
OF Cespedes
RHP Straily (AAA)
SS Russell (AA)
OF McKinney (A)
They acquired RHP Samardzija, RHP Hammel, OF Gomes, LHP Lester and OF Fuld.
The bottom three prospects is what the Cubs received in their trade.
The top two went to the Twins and Red Sox in separate deals.
But it is clear that the A's were willing to trade these players to anyone.
The Cubs refuse to put the pedal down and actually rebuild the major league roster.
Some clubs prefer to call it "re-tooling." The White Sox did in the off season and found two
quality starters in OF Eaton and 1B Abreu, who has MVP stats.
Since Oakland opened its trading cards to the world, would have the Cubs getting Millone and Cespedes a better deal than what they got? People will say time will tell IF the prospects pan out.
But look at the line up card for the rest of the season and for 2015.
2014 (Second Half)
1. Alcantara 2b
2. Castro ss
3. Rizzo 1b
4. Cespedes rf
5. Valbuena 3b
6. Castillo c
7. Coghlan lf
8. Sweeney cf
Rotation: Arrieta, T. Wood, Millone, E. Jackson, Hendricks
2015:
1. Alcantara cf
2. Castro ss
3. Rizzo 1b
4. Bryant 3b
5. Baez 2b
6. Cespedes rf
7. Castillo c
8. Coghlan/Ruggiano lf
Rotation: Arrieta, T. Wood, Millone, Hendricks, E. Jackson
LHP Millone
OF Cespedes
RHP Straily (AAA)
SS Russell (AA)
OF McKinney (A)
They acquired RHP Samardzija, RHP Hammel, OF Gomes, LHP Lester and OF Fuld.
The bottom three prospects is what the Cubs received in their trade.
The top two went to the Twins and Red Sox in separate deals.
But it is clear that the A's were willing to trade these players to anyone.
The Cubs refuse to put the pedal down and actually rebuild the major league roster.
Some clubs prefer to call it "re-tooling." The White Sox did in the off season and found two
quality starters in OF Eaton and 1B Abreu, who has MVP stats.
Since Oakland opened its trading cards to the world, would have the Cubs getting Millone and Cespedes a better deal than what they got? People will say time will tell IF the prospects pan out.
But look at the line up card for the rest of the season and for 2015.
2014 (Second Half)
1. Alcantara 2b
2. Castro ss
3. Rizzo 1b
4. Cespedes rf
5. Valbuena 3b
6. Castillo c
7. Coghlan lf
8. Sweeney cf
Rotation: Arrieta, T. Wood, Millone, E. Jackson, Hendricks
2015:
1. Alcantara cf
2. Castro ss
3. Rizzo 1b
4. Bryant 3b
5. Baez 2b
6. Cespedes rf
7. Castillo c
8. Coghlan/Ruggiano lf
Rotation: Arrieta, T. Wood, Millone, Hendricks, E. Jackson
August 1, 2014
ALL IN
Oakland knows that dominate starting pitching wins playoff games.
It made another huge trade to acquire an ace.
And since Oakland has shown all its trade cards that would or should have been apparent when the Cubs were selling their pitchers, the Cubs passed on another major league ready arm in Millone, who fits a pressing need for Chicago: starting pitching. A controllable pitcher with a solid ERA and a good ground ball rate would be a good fit in Wrigley. It is clear the Cubs could have given Oakland a Fuld type outfielder (pick anyone: Sweeney, Schierholtz, Coghlan, Riggiano or Lake) to pick up Millone or someone like him. This another piece of evidence that the Cubs are holding back on rebuilding the major league roster with major league experience for the long haul.
It made another huge trade to acquire an ace.
The A’s on acquired Boston Red Sox starter Jon Lester, the playoff-tough
left-hander who can be a free agent at season’s end, in an all-in effort
to win the AL West and make a deep October run, baseball sources told
Yahoo Sports.
The addition of Lester comes 26 days after the A’s acquired ace right-hander Jeff Samardzija of the Cubs, and so they have remade the top of their rotation. They already had Sonny Gray and Scott Kazmir.
The agreed-upon trade will send
Lester and outfielder Jonny Gomes to the A’s. In return, the Red Sox,
embarking on their second roster makeover in two years, receive
outfielder Yoenis Cespedes
and, critically, a competitive balance pick in the 2015 draft.
Cespedes, 28, can become a free agent after the 2015 season. In his
third major league season, Cespedes is batting .256 with 17 home runs
and 67 RBI.
This deal shows the trigger of the A's. Jason Hammel, also acquired from the Cubs, has struggled in Oakland, going 0-4 with a plus 5 ERA and plus 2 WHIP. It appears Hammel is destined for bullpen duty or a DL stint to regain his form.
Boston came away with a fabulous return for Lester, who was going on the free agent market at the end of the year, probably looking towards a Kershaw megadeal. The Red Sox get a legitimate starting outfielder with power in Cespedes.
And he is a critical point when looking at the Cubs trade with Oakland. It is now perfectly clear that the Cubs are purely focused on obtaining and stockpiling prospects than known major league talent. If the Cubs received Cespedes in the Samardzija-Hammel deal as well as a 2015 draft pick and either Addison Russell or Billy McKinney, it would have been a better deal since Cespedes instantly becomes the best outfielder on the major league roster by a mile. Cespesdes bat gives instant protection to both Rizzo and Castro in the line up.
As Oakland is clearly "all in" for this season, it is also clear that the Cubs have folded their hand for 2014 by continuing acquiring prospects and not major league players. The danger is that the Cubs are hoping that these prospects, when the cards are dealt with the their major league promotions, will turn out to be aces.
There is just another concern about how the Cubs make trades. After the Lester trade, the Twins have acquired leftyTommy Milone from the A’s in exchange for outfielder and ex-Cub Sam Fuld.
Milone lost his rotation spot with the Athletics earlier this month when the team acquired Samardzija and Hammel and any hope of him regaining that spot likely faded with Oakland’s morning acquisition of Lester. The 27-year-old Milone had asked to be traded somewhere that he had a chance to start, and Minnesota certainly fits that bill.
Milone had pitched to a solid 3.55 ERA with 5.7 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and a 38.4 percent fly-ball rate in 96 1/3 innings this season. He owns a 3.84 ERA with 6.5 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 and 36.8 percent ground-ball rate in 468 2/3 innings for the Nationals and Athletics. He is eligible for arbitration for the first time this off season and can be controlled through the 2017 campaign.
There is just another concern about how the Cubs make trades. After the Lester trade, the Twins have acquired leftyTommy Milone from the A’s in exchange for outfielder and ex-Cub Sam Fuld.
Milone lost his rotation spot with the Athletics earlier this month when the team acquired Samardzija and Hammel and any hope of him regaining that spot likely faded with Oakland’s morning acquisition of Lester. The 27-year-old Milone had asked to be traded somewhere that he had a chance to start, and Minnesota certainly fits that bill.
Milone had pitched to a solid 3.55 ERA with 5.7 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and a 38.4 percent fly-ball rate in 96 1/3 innings this season. He owns a 3.84 ERA with 6.5 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 and 36.8 percent ground-ball rate in 468 2/3 innings for the Nationals and Athletics. He is eligible for arbitration for the first time this off season and can be controlled through the 2017 campaign.
And since Oakland has shown all its trade cards that would or should have been apparent when the Cubs were selling their pitchers, the Cubs passed on another major league ready arm in Millone, who fits a pressing need for Chicago: starting pitching. A controllable pitcher with a solid ERA and a good ground ball rate would be a good fit in Wrigley. It is clear the Cubs could have given Oakland a Fuld type outfielder (pick anyone: Sweeney, Schierholtz, Coghlan, Riggiano or Lake) to pick up Millone or someone like him. This another piece of evidence that the Cubs are holding back on rebuilding the major league roster with major league experience for the long haul.
Statistics and expectations are the trading blocks of prospects. But how they actually play under the pressure of ML games is another thing. Bill Madlock was on the radio and he said in his day the only stats that mattered were wins for pitchers and hits for hitters. He knows about the new sabermetrics and new stats like OBP, but he remarked that OBP is meaningless if you are station to station runner versus a person like Rickey Henderson who could turn a walk into a triple. The object of the game is to score more runs than one's opponent, not to have a better sabermetric spreadsheet.
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