PITCHING AHEAD

Gordon Wittenmyer had a good column in regard to the state of the Cubs pitching. The team has a lot of young arms being showcased this September. But as staff, are they any good? No one really knows.

He compares the current Cubs to the pitching wealth of the competitive Pirates:

Hard-throwing Gerrit Cole, 24, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2011 draft is quickly becoming a staff ace.  He is followed by 2013 All-Star Jeff Locke, 26, a second-rounder who has won five of his last six decisions.

Wittenmyer notes that the Cubs had starters with great ERAs this season:

Jeff Samardzija (2.83 ERA), Jason Hammel (2.98), Jake Arrieta (2.82), Kyle Hendricks (2.38) and Tsuyoshi Wada (2.95) giving the Cubs exceptional performances in more than half (78) of the team’s starts this season. But the Cubs still rank near the bottom of the National League in starting pitching (4.05 ERA). Only the Marlins, Diamondbacks and Rockies are worse.

With Samardzija and Hammel off the roster, and Wada, who turns 34 next spring, won’t have his $5 million option picked up and likely will seek greener offers as opposed to a bargain renegotiation, the Cubs will be stuck with these pitching options for 2015:

1. Former All-Stars Travis Wood and Edwin Jackson who have seen much better days.

2. Pitchers who have not thrown a full major league season in Arrieta and Hendricks.

3. And a possible rotation of 5th starters in the reclamation projects of Jacob Turner and Felix Doubront.

THE FACE OF THE FRANCHISE

Giancarlo Stanton is the face of the Marlins franchise. He is the team's best player by a wide margin.

Stanton, 24, was leading the league in home runs (37), RBI (105), slugging percentage (.555) and OPS (.950). In 2014, he had a 5.8 WAR. In his five years in the majors, his career WAR is 18.4.

He is always a trade rumor candidate. He has shown consistent power over the past five seasons. In any trade, Miami would get a blockbuster package in return.

But the Marlins have done fire sales in the past. And the fan base stays away in droves. Any team needs at least one player who performs well, stays out of trouble, and is fan friendly. Stanton is the face of the Marlins; an All-Star player with Hall of Fame potential.

Thursday night, Stanton was hit in the face with a fastball. Stanton took an 88-mph fast in the mouth off Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Mike Friers in the 5th inning. Stanton was taken off the field in an ambulance and is reported to have suffered multiple facial fractures, lacerations, and dental damage. He is likely out for the remainder of the season.

This is a player's worst nightmare, getting hit in the head. Cubs fans will remember that rookie prospect Adam Greenberg's first major league at-bat ended with him being hit by a pitch. That one pitch ended Greenberg's baseball career.

No matter what happens next, this injury will affect Stanton. One's body will program itself to defend against danger. His basic survival instinct may kick in for a split second to protect himself from inside pitches. Batting and contact with a baseball itself is a matter of split second coordination.  In addition, there may be lingering effects from the facial fractures or possible eyesight issues to concussion concerns.

For baseball superstars, the high return in compensation is also tempered by high risk. One play can end a career. One injury can end a career.

THE BUCK STOPS

Roger Goodell has 44 million reasons to scrap together plausible denial in his handling of the Ray Rice domestic abuse scandal. Goodell's compensation package for being NFL Commissioner is $44 million per year.  That is almost double a star major league pitching ace's annual salary.

Goodell is now the target of social and political quivers. Pro sports in America has taken over as the largest institutions in conjunction, perhaps, with the rise of entertainment technology and more leisure time due to underemployment in various traditional work sectors. Entertainment is escapism. When real world issues collide with an entertainment game, things can get complicated quickly.

Goodell muffled the punt, and is being called for unsportsmanlike conduct. He may get ejected from his own game.

The world was revolted by the release of the elevator tape which showed a brutal act of domestic violence. The question is whether Goodell, who as judge and jury of all player behavior in his league, saw this tape prior to giving Rice only a two game suspension. If so, he was an idiot and liar because he said this week he never saw the tape until recently. The AP story states the police gave the NFL a copy of the tape three months ago, and has a voice mail confirmation from the league office of its receipt and viewing. The public backlash is getting intense. NY Post headline rewrites the NFL as standing for "National Football Liars."

Major sports are all about public image because major corporations do not want associate themselves with negative public perception. There still is a guilt by association in brand marketing.

Goodell has lashed severe penalties in his 8 year tenure as commissioner. He whacked the New Orleans Saints and coach Sean Payton for Bountygate. In that scandal, he stated that "ignorance is no defense" to the team's explanation of the events.

The growing problem with all professional sports is that the commissioners are seizing too much authority over teams, players under the cover of some kind of "institutional control." To protect the game, he must police the game. Now, this goes beyond in-game infractions to outside criminal behavior and moral indiscretions. A prime example of this was the NCAA penalties against Penn St. for criminal child abuse at the school. Many people, including the governor, deplored the interference and sanctions against Penn St. which is beyond the charter of the NCAA. Recently, the NCAA backed off some of the sanctions but the matter is still in litigation.

Now, many employers have moral clauses in the employee contracts. But football, baseball, basketball, hockey all have collective bargaining agreements which should take care of player disciplinary actions. However, the union has been silent in the Rice case. Commissioners are using the old baseball "best interests of the game" as an inherit power to do whatever they want to preserve the status of the sport and their iron fist control over it. But many people really believe it should be the team, not the league, that should take action against one of its employees for bad behavior which is disruptive to the team.

Also, there is a large percentage of people who believe that in criminal matters, the team and league should just defer to punishment and judgments of the court system against its players. But in the Rice case, Rice skated because he made a quick deal for a diversion program so the charges will go away without a conviction. Prosecutors made that decision after seeing the evidence, including the tapes, so it hard to imagine that Baltimore citizens won't be upset with their local authorities.

Since Goodell is employed by the NFL owners, they will have to make the ultimate decision on Goodell's fate. As more and more negative press, possible pending Congressional investigations, and now an expensive external investigation, the Rice scandal continues to grow. Owners do not like to be in the negative spot light. It is bad for business. It is bad for their reputation. And they don't want to be ambushed by reporters asking embarrassing questions.

In Goodell's case, he lived by his sword, and that same sword may take himself down.

BIG DREAMS

Max Scherzer turned down 6 years/$144 million from the Tigers. He will hit the free agent market setting the bar near $160 million or $26.7 million per season.

Jon Lester, who will be 32, will ask for the same big money contract.

Multiple reports indicate that the Cubs are going strong to sign Lester in the off-season.

There is an old Boston connection at play, so the reports say. But baseball is a business, and players and their agents want two things: money and post-season money.

The Cubs 2015 payroll currently stands at an expansion team level of around $45 million. Clearly, everyone postulates, the Cubs have a boatload of money to spend to acquire ace pitching the team so dearly needs.  Except, no one knows outside the organization if the $100 million payrolls are truth or a myth. From the evidence, it appears more likely myth than reality.

The Cubs go into 2015 with no local TV revenue for a large portion of the television rights package. Attendance, especially no-shows, has become a real problem. Attendance is down and no-shows are going up. The Cubs raising ticket prices for the best seats is sure to tick off some long suffering fans who paid premium prices for minor league ball for five years. The Cubs are pushing the load to see where the camel's back (fans) is broken.

The big dreams of the new, young, fun players may turn to an awakening of reality. The big guns have cooled as we go into late September. There is no guarantee that they will perform at a high level in 2015.

So that is why the front office would like to make a splash with a Lester signing. It would give the team a confidence boost that yes, the team really wants to win.

But the money for Lester is going to be diverted to Ricketts construction plans, now several years in arrears. In any construction project, delays mean cost overruns. There are still litigation uncertainty and neighborhood complaints. The business side is not ready to give the baseball side the financial checkbook to buy the expensive pieces of the competitive puzzle.

The team may say they are "all in" for bidding on Lester, but the Cubs stack is not going to match up with the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Rangers, Dodgers, Tigers or Mariners.  Most likely it plays out like the Tanaka story from last spring.

Which leaves the Cubs with a patchwork starting rotation, and a batting order loaded with inconsistent young players.

A LOOK AHEAD

As the season winds down, 2015 will bring a new level of expectations on the Cubs.

First, the prospects that will earn an opening day roster spot, Baez, Hendricks, Alcantara, and Soler, must show the ability to adapt to the league (which now has major league books on them). There are such things such as sophomore slumps. The team can't afford to hype these young guns only to have them slide into Josh Vitters-Brett Jackson-Corey Patterson-Felix Pie territory.

Second, the pitching staff is a continuing work in progress. Most of the promoted arms have fallen to the bullpen. The ones being showcased as potential starters, Hendricks, Beeler, Turner and Jokisch have to solidify their role in spring training as well as Wada, Doubront and Straily. Yes, the Cubs have plenty of arms to evaluate, but none of them has the power or poise of a young star like Chris Sale.

Third, manager Rick Renteria will have his seat begin to warm toward hot. Will he be another caretaker like Mike Quade? No one can say that he has been an outstanding skipper because the team has not played above its low expectations. It is hard to tell whether his teaching and development skills (the main reason he was hired) are actually taking hold. The Cubs as a team have not shown a dramatic improvement in fundamentals or baseball IQ.

Fourth, the bounce back years of Castro and Rizzo may be tempered in 2015 because of the late season injuries. As anyone who has had a back problem, it never really goes away. Rizzo's health will be a major question in spring training. And considering the massive swing paths and body torque of Soler, Baez and now Castillo, back issues may be a depressing story line going forward.

Fifth, there is a growing concern about ownership. Can the Ricketts get their business act together with the Wrigley renovation and new revenue streams, or will the franchise falter into a real small market, penny pinching disaster?

WOODEN ARM

Travis Wood has probably pitched himself off the Cubs 2015 roster.

Wood came over from the Reds in the Shaun Marshall deal.  It started off well for the Cubs.

In 2012, Wood went 6-13, 4.27 ERA, 1.199 WHIP and 0.7 WAR.  This is acceptable for a back of the rotation starter on a bad team.

In 2013, Wood was an All-Star. He went 9-12, 3.11 ERA, 1.145 WHIP and 4.4 WAR. He was probably the most consistent starter on the staff that season.

In 2014, Wood regressed badly. He has gone 8-12, 5.15 ERA, 1.543 WHIP and negative 0.8 WAR. Some observers think that Wood may be pitching hurt. Others think the league may have caught up to his style of pitching since he can't overpower hitters.

He is under team control through arbitration through 2017. As a lefty starter, that is an in-demand commodity for any team.

The Cubs are stock piling a bunch of starting pitchers with histories that are similar to Wood's. Whether Jacob Turner returns to his prospect scouting sheet hype is unknown. Yoshi Wada has been a nice addition, but he is another lefty soft-tosser new to the league this year. And Kyle Hendricks looks Maddux-like in some of his starts, but does he have long term control to be an effective #2 starter? Jake Arrieta took over for Jeff Samardzija and looked better than advertised, but even Arrieta has slowly slid back to being around a .500 pitcher.

It is rare to find a starting pitcher with a consistent long term career. Those guys get the hundred million dollar deals.

The Cubs need to evaluate Wood closely this off-season. Was he injured or have a tired arm? Is there a mechanical flaw? Or as with many major league players, he has run his course and is destined to be a journeyman like former Pirate,  Zach Duke.

THE COST OF LOYALTY

There were many fans who grumbled about paying premium prices for less than minor league talent for the past four seasons. There were thousands who canceled their season ticket packages because they could not even give away their spare tickets. The Cubs refused to lower ticket prices during their "blow up the team" rebuild.

The Sun-Times reported on Saturday that the Cubs will not give long time suffering fans a break. 

The Cubs’ biggest prospects have barely started paying dividends on the field, but the club has decided to raise ticket prices for some of the most popular sections at Wrigley Field in 2015.

Season-ticket prices will increase an average of 6 percent in the club, field and lower terrace reserved sections of the park. That increase will affect 20 percent of season-ticket holders, while the other 80 percent will have no change or a price drop.

According to Team Marketing Report, the Cubs had the third-highest ticket price in baseball this season at $44.15. The price is high despite the fact Cubs attendance has been on the decline since 2008. 

The Cubs sent invoices to fans a month earlier than usual to give them more time between making the down payment and full payment.. The earlier timeline is one of a handful of changes being made to the renewal process.

Ten percent of the balance must be paid by Oct. 13, with the remainder due by Jan. 13, 2015. Fans can also opt instead for the four-month installment plan and pay 25 percent at a time.

The club has set up a website to ease the payment process. Account holders will have personalized Web pages with tabs to provide information about their account and the renewal process.

The price hike coincides with the renewed fan interest in the club, as young prospects appear on the roster.

It still is a money first, performance second strategy from the Cubs.