The Miami Marlins are a trash can fire that is soon to spread throughout baseball's reputation.
MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred insisted Wednesday that the commissioner’s office was not aware before the sale of the team that the Marlins’ new owners planned to dramatically slash payroll, a fact disputed by two people directly involved in the negotiating process.
In a combative interview on ESPN Radio, host Dan Le Batard told Manfred: “We are starting with a lie” when Manfred said he did not know the plans of new owners Derek Jeter and Bruce Sherman during the approval process.
“I’m not going to have you call me a liar!” Manfred said.
In Chicago, we were acutely aware of the sale process when the bankrupt Tribune company sold the Cubs to the Ricketts family. MLB has strict financial review of any team bidders. MLB has rules in place on team debt ratios and ownership capital requirements. MLB also has access to team financials in regard to revenue sharing and luxury tax formulas. It also has had to step in to actually advance payroll for several clubs in the last decade. Every bidder needs to provide MLB with a detailed business plan so owners who vote on the franchise transfer can be assured that the new owners will not bankrupt the team.
Two people directly involved in the sales process said that Jeter and Sherman were required to tell other owners their intentions with payroll during the approval process, and that they informed the other owners that payroll would be cut from $115 million to the $85 million to $90 million range, with $85 million used at times and $90 million other times in those discussions.
Last year’s team would have cost about $140 million if it were kept together. The Marlins’ current projected payroll for 2018 stands at about $94 million after the team traded Giancarlo Stanton, Dee Gordon and Marcell Ozuna.
Pressed by Le Batard about whether he was aware of Jeter’s plan, Manfred said: “No. We did not have player specific plans from the Miami Marlins or any other team during the approval ownership process. Those are decisions the individual owners make. We do not approve operating decisions by any ownership, new owner or current owners. As a result, the answer is no.”
Just as any bidder does due diligence to set its offer price, MLB does a due diligence on potential ownership groups, including their background, business skills and financial deep pockets. MLB was aware that the Jeter group borrowed more than $400 million of the sale price. With that debt load, the bank would need to have security and covenants for timely principal and interest payments over the short term of the obligation.
Besides Jeter coming to town to burn down the roster, Marlins fans were upset that Jeter kicked out fan ambassadors and terminated a long time scout while he was in the hospital. The new ownership immediately dismissed four well-known
Marlins executives:
special assistant to the president Jeff Conine, who goes by the nickname
Mr. Marlin, and three special assistants to the owner — Hall of Famers
Andre Dawson and Tony Perez, and former manager Jack McKeon, who led the
Marlins to the 2003 World Series championship.
Jeter was also criticized for not attending the Winter Meetings. Jeter also avoided the press after the Stanton trade.
However, this week Jeter held a tense town hall with season-ticket holders Tuesday night. He was taken to task by angry fans. Jeter was under fire for selling off the team’s best players in a payroll slashing move that agent Scott Boras called MLB’s “pawn shop.” The Giancarlo Stanton trade for a nominal return angered fans as well as the Marlins have also traded notable big-name (and big-money) players like Dee Gordon and Marcell Ozuna this offseason.
Several fans questioned Jeter's moves and motivation. One fan mocked the $1.2 billion sale of the Marlins, saying Jeter spent "$1.2 billion and then ran out of money," ESPN reported.
Another fan told Jeter: "You act like you ran out of money. You're not going to win here with dancing girls. You're going to win with ballplayers who know how to win. The fans are alienated. They're upset. That's what you're dealing with here."
One memorable exchange involved "Marlins Man," a Marlins fan famous for traveling around the country to various high-profile sporting events and being seen on television wearing bright orange Marlins gear. He told Jeter he wouldn't pay high prices for a "triple-A team."
Marlins Man also asked to be more involved with the team. Jeter apparently drew laughs by offering to let him throw out the first pitch if he renewed his season tickets on a 10-year plan.
At times, the meeting got messy. The Miami Herald reported a crying fan told Jeter they could have signed a pitcher and contended for the playoffs, to which Jeter asked which pitchers they could have signed. When Jeter told fans to be patient, an older man said he didn't have many more years left.
The Marlins have posted a losing record for eight straight seasons and have not made the playoff since 2002. Jeter tried to explain his rationale to the angry fans.
"You can't throw money at a problem and dig a bigger and bigger hole and not have any depth in the organization,'' Jeter said. "You have to build from the bottom up. "I hear your pain. I know you've been through a lot. But we're trying to build something that is sustainable, and this is the only way to do it."
Other teams have announced rebuild plans (such as the Astros, Cubs and White Sox) with the expectation to fans that there would be some lean years ahead. But Jeter's plan was crude, arrogant and condescending to fans without a clear explanation of how ownership is going to create a championship team. Trading away all your good players for no real value not only hurts the fan base but destroys clubhouse chemistry. Several Marlins players are now demanding trades because the roster has been gutted to be not competitive in 2018.
When former owner Jeff Loria owned the Marlins, he was a laughingstock in the league. He was crude, brash and blind to the needs of his own fan base. He once sued his own season ticket holders who complained they were not getting what they had been promised. With the sale of the franchise, fans thought they would be getting an owner with a new vision for the future. Instead, they got a harsher version of the former hated owner, Loria 2.0.
And MLB gets a major hit to its reputation for allowing a new owner to crash and burn a franchise within a few weeks of taking it over.
Showing posts with label Marlins. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Marlins. Show all posts
December 21, 2017
December 11, 2017
THEY DID IT!
Well, a Giancarlo Stanton deal got done. And the Cubs were no where in the neighborhood.
The Yankees made a fantastic deal to acquire the power hitting MVP.
Yahoo Sports summarizes the deal: The Marlins will receive veteran second baseman Starlin Castro, Yankees No. 9 minor league prospect, right-hander Jorge Guzman and infielder Jose Devers in exchange for Stanton and approximately $30 million. The New York Post reports the $30 million will only be paid out in full if Stanton elects not to opt out after the 2020 season. The Yankees will absorb the remaining $265 million left on his contract.
With the price break the Yankees are getting in the deal, it is likely the Yankees will be able to avoid going over the luxury tax threshold in 2018. After offloading Castro’s $7.57 million salary and taking into account the $25 million Stanton is due next season, the club is looking at a payroll increase of just under $17.5 million. The $30 million the Yankees receive from Miami will be paid out in $3 million installments to help offset the luxury tax restrictions each year.
Pitcher Guzman is expected to break into the big leagues as soon as 2019. The 21-year-old pitched exclusively out of the rotation for Low-A Staten Island last season with a 5-3 record in 13 starts and a 2.30 ERA, 2.4 BB/9 and 11.9 SO/9 through 66 2/3 innings.
Devers, 18, was also included in the deal. The shortstop/DH made his first foray into pro ball in 2017, slashing a combined .245/.336/.342 with 13 extra-base hits and 16 stolen bases in 216 PA for the Yankees’ rookie-level affiliates in the Gulf Coast League and Dominican Summer League.
The Marlins were desperate to unload Stanton's contract and the Yankees got a bargain fire-sale price for the one of the best hitters in baseball.
As I said previously, it would not have taken much to get Stanton on the Cubs roster. And Stanton would have solved a major problem in the Cubs everyday lineup: consistent hitting for average and power.
The Marlins only received a starting second baseman, the Yankees fifth best pitching prospect, and a low level minor leaguer. Miami also lost a great deal of production: Castro hit .300, 16 HR, 63 RBI with a 2.0 WAR as compared to Stanton's .281 BA, 59 HR, 132 RBI and 7.6 WAR.
Look at this way: would you trade Javy Baez, No. 4 prospect SP Alex Lange and a low Class A minor leaguer for Stanton?
Of course you would. That is the basic cost the Marlins were looking to take to get rid of Stanton. So I am surprised that the Cubs were not a factor in the Stanton trade discussions. Yankees GM Cashman made the deal of the year.
The Yankees made a fantastic deal to acquire the power hitting MVP.
Yahoo Sports summarizes the deal: The Marlins will receive veteran second baseman Starlin Castro, Yankees No. 9 minor league prospect, right-hander Jorge Guzman and infielder Jose Devers in exchange for Stanton and approximately $30 million. The New York Post reports the $30 million will only be paid out in full if Stanton elects not to opt out after the 2020 season. The Yankees will absorb the remaining $265 million left on his contract.
With the price break the Yankees are getting in the deal, it is likely the Yankees will be able to avoid going over the luxury tax threshold in 2018. After offloading Castro’s $7.57 million salary and taking into account the $25 million Stanton is due next season, the club is looking at a payroll increase of just under $17.5 million. The $30 million the Yankees receive from Miami will be paid out in $3 million installments to help offset the luxury tax restrictions each year.
Pitcher Guzman is expected to break into the big leagues as soon as 2019. The 21-year-old pitched exclusively out of the rotation for Low-A Staten Island last season with a 5-3 record in 13 starts and a 2.30 ERA, 2.4 BB/9 and 11.9 SO/9 through 66 2/3 innings.
Devers, 18, was also included in the deal. The shortstop/DH made his first foray into pro ball in 2017, slashing a combined .245/.336/.342 with 13 extra-base hits and 16 stolen bases in 216 PA for the Yankees’ rookie-level affiliates in the Gulf Coast League and Dominican Summer League.
The Marlins were desperate to unload Stanton's contract and the Yankees got a bargain fire-sale price for the one of the best hitters in baseball.
As I said previously, it would not have taken much to get Stanton on the Cubs roster. And Stanton would have solved a major problem in the Cubs everyday lineup: consistent hitting for average and power.
The Marlins only received a starting second baseman, the Yankees fifth best pitching prospect, and a low level minor leaguer. Miami also lost a great deal of production: Castro hit .300, 16 HR, 63 RBI with a 2.0 WAR as compared to Stanton's .281 BA, 59 HR, 132 RBI and 7.6 WAR.
Look at this way: would you trade Javy Baez, No. 4 prospect SP Alex Lange and a low Class A minor leaguer for Stanton?
Of course you would. That is the basic cost the Marlins were looking to take to get rid of Stanton. So I am surprised that the Cubs were not a factor in the Stanton trade discussions. Yankees GM Cashman made the deal of the year.
August 16, 2017
THE BOLDEST MOVE
Jeffrey Loria is the worst MLB baseball owner. He is a crass, arrogant and flippant businessman who even sued his Marlin season ticket holders. But he was clever enough to bamboozle a brothel stadium from the taxpayers of Miami. Now, he is in the midst of trying to sell his team for $1.2 billion to an investment group led by former Yankee Derek Jeter (who wants to put no money into the club but have an equity position and total control over the franchise.)
The Marlins weak attendance and fan base mirrors its weak performance. Despite the millions in incentives and baseball revenue sharing, the Marlins are expected to lose $60 million this season.
When a business wants to sell at top dollar, it needs to massage its balance sheet to make a buyer think he is getting a great deal. The only way a small market club can do that is to cut payroll, the team's largest cost center.
News filtered today that the Marlins star player, Giancarlo Stanton, cleared waivers. After the trade deadline, teams put their players through waivers to clear them for possible August trades prior to the September 1 playoff roster deadline. (The other use of the waiver system is to try to get rid of an expensive contract.)
The Marlins are committed to six players $95 million in 2018 ($25 million is to Stanton).
Stanton, 27, hit his 44th HR of the season. He has achieved 5.2 WAR so far this year. At a salary of $14.5 million, his performance has outpaced his contract by $14.1 million. Next year, his contract jumps to $25 million. He is signed for 10 years at $295 million, but he can opt out after the 2020 season at age 30 (after being paid $77 million for three years).
Stanton is a legitimate superstar. He already has a 32.7 WAR. In 7.5 years, he has 252 HR, 634 RBI, .359 OBP, .268 BA.
Here is the argument for a blockbuster trade for Stanton:
1. He is young.
2. He is proven hitter.
3. He immediately makes any lackluster batting order better.
4. He is under long term control.
And his contract is such that if the market in 2020 is $30 million per year (Harper potential deal), then he will opt out - - - and the team acquiring him by trade now is only out $77 million.
For the Marlins to take the PR hit to trade their star player, Miami will need to get a substantial return for Stanton: cheap controllable major league players and top prospects.
In the current situation, the Cubs may not have enough assets to acquire Stanton, who would be the perfect solution to the left field platoon situation.
The package the Cubs would have to offer to get Stanton:
1. Baez or Russell. A controllable middle infielder with defensive skills is a premium position. One would think Miami, catering to Latin market, would prefer Baez's versatility over Russell (including injury history).
2. Schwarber. Even though Theo-Jed adore their Baby Ruth wannabee, there would be no position left for Schwarber if Stanton is acquired (since Heyward's best position is Gold Glove RF). Miami could use Schwarber as a trade flip to an AL club for more prospects.
3. Almora. The Marlins need to market hometown players to their fans. Almora is young and talented to be a long term marketing piece.
4. Edwards. The Marlins would prefer to get a starter (like Hendricks) but the Cubs cannot spare one. A bullpen piece with some upside would off-set the weakness in Cub farm prospects since Edwards has a major league track record.
5. One of the Top 4 pitching prospects (De La Cruz, Albertos, Alzolany, or Lange) and/or International Bonus pool money.
If you look at this possible transaction from a long term Cub prospective, Stanton fills a need to provide offense, solidify the outfield and give protection to Bryant and Rizzo in the batting order.
It is also an affordable transaction.
The Cubs have $55 million in contracts coming off the books at the end of the year (net $46 million with Quintana's salary for 2018). Stanton's salary in 2018 is $25 million, leaving $21 million to sign a free agent starting pitcher.
If any team trades for Stanton, it would not be a blockbuster move - - - but a nuclear one.
The Marlins weak attendance and fan base mirrors its weak performance. Despite the millions in incentives and baseball revenue sharing, the Marlins are expected to lose $60 million this season.
When a business wants to sell at top dollar, it needs to massage its balance sheet to make a buyer think he is getting a great deal. The only way a small market club can do that is to cut payroll, the team's largest cost center.
News filtered today that the Marlins star player, Giancarlo Stanton, cleared waivers. After the trade deadline, teams put their players through waivers to clear them for possible August trades prior to the September 1 playoff roster deadline. (The other use of the waiver system is to try to get rid of an expensive contract.)
The Marlins are committed to six players $95 million in 2018 ($25 million is to Stanton).
Stanton, 27, hit his 44th HR of the season. He has achieved 5.2 WAR so far this year. At a salary of $14.5 million, his performance has outpaced his contract by $14.1 million. Next year, his contract jumps to $25 million. He is signed for 10 years at $295 million, but he can opt out after the 2020 season at age 30 (after being paid $77 million for three years).
Stanton is a legitimate superstar. He already has a 32.7 WAR. In 7.5 years, he has 252 HR, 634 RBI, .359 OBP, .268 BA.
Here is the argument for a blockbuster trade for Stanton:
1. He is young.
2. He is proven hitter.
3. He immediately makes any lackluster batting order better.
4. He is under long term control.
And his contract is such that if the market in 2020 is $30 million per year (Harper potential deal), then he will opt out - - - and the team acquiring him by trade now is only out $77 million.
For the Marlins to take the PR hit to trade their star player, Miami will need to get a substantial return for Stanton: cheap controllable major league players and top prospects.
In the current situation, the Cubs may not have enough assets to acquire Stanton, who would be the perfect solution to the left field platoon situation.
The package the Cubs would have to offer to get Stanton:
1. Baez or Russell. A controllable middle infielder with defensive skills is a premium position. One would think Miami, catering to Latin market, would prefer Baez's versatility over Russell (including injury history).
2. Schwarber. Even though Theo-Jed adore their Baby Ruth wannabee, there would be no position left for Schwarber if Stanton is acquired (since Heyward's best position is Gold Glove RF). Miami could use Schwarber as a trade flip to an AL club for more prospects.
3. Almora. The Marlins need to market hometown players to their fans. Almora is young and talented to be a long term marketing piece.
4. Edwards. The Marlins would prefer to get a starter (like Hendricks) but the Cubs cannot spare one. A bullpen piece with some upside would off-set the weakness in Cub farm prospects since Edwards has a major league track record.
5. One of the Top 4 pitching prospects (De La Cruz, Albertos, Alzolany, or Lange) and/or International Bonus pool money.
If you look at this possible transaction from a long term Cub prospective, Stanton fills a need to provide offense, solidify the outfield and give protection to Bryant and Rizzo in the batting order.
It is also an affordable transaction.
The Cubs have $55 million in contracts coming off the books at the end of the year (net $46 million with Quintana's salary for 2018). Stanton's salary in 2018 is $25 million, leaving $21 million to sign a free agent starting pitcher.
If any team trades for Stanton, it would not be a blockbuster move - - - but a nuclear one.
April 29, 2016
STORM FROM THE CLOUD
The baseless story on Jake Arrieta's rise to ace status was taken off the sports pages today by the announcement of another 80 game PED suspension.
The Marlins Dee Gordon was suspended by MLB for using banned substances. Gordon, who had a career year in 2014 with the Dodgers, signed a big money deal with the Marlins, a 5 year $50 million extension. Gordon failed a drug test for use of banned substances exogenous testosterone and clostebol.
ESPN's Buster Olney remarked that Gordon’s suspension serves only as further proof that the potential reward for using PEDs far outweighs the risks. The Marlins did not know if Gordon was using PEDs during his All Star seasons with the Dodgers. But the team will still owe Gordon roughly $48 million despite the suspension. And that is the crux of the problem: even after a suspension, the team owes the balance of the player contract. Olney recalls that early in his career, Gordon struggled to simply to stay in the Major Leagues after being relegated to the bench and changing positions. Players in similar situations can certainly look to Gordon’s situation and see the temptation of using banned substances in order to get to their goal of being a major league player.
MLB thought it had swept the drug abuse issue under the rug with stricter minor league testing programs and more through major league tests. Ken Rosenthal remarks that many players continue to voice their concern that every player gets their reputation hit by every new suspension. With a new collective bargaining agreement on the horizon, the players' union may have concede greater player punishments or concessions in order to stem the tide of bad public relations. Some players have suggested a two-year ban, though Rosenthal himself wonders if at a certain point the MLBPA will change its steadfast position to allow some or all of a player’s long-term contract to be voided by PED usage. Player agents' will strongly lobby against such a move. It could lead to more adversarial arbitration if a player 's contract was to be voided for a failed drug test, but the player claims to have never taken a banned substance. The Ryan Braun denials and abuse of the test taker shed a horrible light on everyone involved in the drug testing program. MLB does not want to have a constant turnstyle of PED arbitration cases.
But the temptation to cheat is great because the major league salary levels continue to increase.In 2015, the average major league salary was $3,386,212. In 2016, the minimum major league salary was $511,000. So, even bench players seeking the major league minimum make more than the average fan in the stands still have an incentive to cheat.
The Marlins Dee Gordon was suspended by MLB for using banned substances. Gordon, who had a career year in 2014 with the Dodgers, signed a big money deal with the Marlins, a 5 year $50 million extension. Gordon failed a drug test for use of banned substances exogenous testosterone and clostebol.
ESPN's Buster Olney remarked that Gordon’s suspension serves only as further proof that the potential reward for using PEDs far outweighs the risks. The Marlins did not know if Gordon was using PEDs during his All Star seasons with the Dodgers. But the team will still owe Gordon roughly $48 million despite the suspension. And that is the crux of the problem: even after a suspension, the team owes the balance of the player contract. Olney recalls that early in his career, Gordon struggled to simply to stay in the Major Leagues after being relegated to the bench and changing positions. Players in similar situations can certainly look to Gordon’s situation and see the temptation of using banned substances in order to get to their goal of being a major league player.
MLB thought it had swept the drug abuse issue under the rug with stricter minor league testing programs and more through major league tests. Ken Rosenthal remarks that many players continue to voice their concern that every player gets their reputation hit by every new suspension. With a new collective bargaining agreement on the horizon, the players' union may have concede greater player punishments or concessions in order to stem the tide of bad public relations. Some players have suggested a two-year ban, though Rosenthal himself wonders if at a certain point the MLBPA will change its steadfast position to allow some or all of a player’s long-term contract to be voided by PED usage. Player agents' will strongly lobby against such a move. It could lead to more adversarial arbitration if a player 's contract was to be voided for a failed drug test, but the player claims to have never taken a banned substance. The Ryan Braun denials and abuse of the test taker shed a horrible light on everyone involved in the drug testing program. MLB does not want to have a constant turnstyle of PED arbitration cases.
But the temptation to cheat is great because the major league salary levels continue to increase.In 2015, the average major league salary was $3,386,212. In 2016, the minimum major league salary was $511,000. So, even bench players seeking the major league minimum make more than the average fan in the stands still have an incentive to cheat.
December 3, 2015
A CHANCE REHAB
If the Cubs are looking for affordable starting pitching. the Marlins may have given them a chance.
Just one year after making the All-Star team and finishing 12th in NL Cy Young voting, starter Henderson Alvarez has been cut loose by the Miami Marlins, Yahoo Sports reports.
Miami non-tendered Alvarez on Wednesday night to release him into free agency. Alvarez can now sign with any team.
Alvarez is a five-year pro who had his worst season in 2015. He went 0-4 with a 6.45 ERA before having season-ending shoulder surgery in June.
Alvarez made the All-Star team in 2014 and finished 12-7 with a 2.65 ERA in 30 starts. He has a 3.80 ERA in 92 career games.
The shoulder issue could be a big problem for Alvarez, as it's not often teams give up on players this early. Alvarez is only 25 and was one of the NL's best pitchers just a year ago. But some team will take a chance on the right-hander, who will look to revive a once-promising career.
The Cubs have not been afraid to sign injured pitchers with the hope of rehabbing them. However, shoulder injuries are more problematic for pitchers because the shoulder is the weakest body part in the mechanics of throwing.
For example, Labral tears is an injury to the labrum of the shoulder in a thrower is not something is significant. . Labral tears are just part of the territory for a major league pitcher; it's just a question of degree and disability. In other words, if you were to look through a surgical scope at the inside of a thrower's shoulder, including those that had no reported symptoms, you would find damage to the labrum more often than not. Some pitchers manage to throw and throw well despite the presence of significant tissue damage. Other pitchers have relatively minor injuries, but are completely incapacitated. The reason for this is unclear. It is not necessarily a question of pain tolerance; rather it appears to be a much more complicated mechanical picture.
The labrum is a ring of cartilage that surrounds the glenoid or the "socket" portion of the shoulder joint and actually serves to enhance shoulder joint stability. When torn, the labrum can catch, causing the shoulder to be painful and potentially feel unstable. The biceps tendon has an attachment to the labrum, so if the biceps is involved, it can lead to problems at the labrum. The labrum undergoes great strain where it attaches to the biceps at the extremes of motion, when the shoulder is at its fully cocked position before ball delivery, and at the end of ball release (during follow through). Since a pitcher repeats that motion time and again -- not only during a game but also during warm-ups, bullpen sessions and any other episode of throwing -- the labrum is constantly subject to stress.
Surgical repair may be the eventual treatment in a thrower who does not respond to a period of rest and conservative rehabilitation, and the recovery is lengthy. Pitchers do return from labral repair, but their timetable to return and their effectiveness when they do come back is variable. A pitcher coming off of labral surgery in the offseason should recognize that there is a bit of a risk involved until the athlete shows that he has indeed fully regained his form.
The Miami Herald reports that according to projections provided by mlbtraderumors.com, Alvarez is positioned to receive about $4 million through arbitration. Alvarez is coming off shoulder surgery and -- assuming there are no setbacks along the way -- likely wouldn't be ready to pitch again until a month or two into the season.
Even if the Marlins felt convinced that Alvarez will make it back and give them 20 or so starts, there's no guarantee he'll be the same pitcher he was before. On the other hand, $4 million isn't a lot to pay for a No. 2 or No. 3 starter. Now the Cubs have to determine whether the Marlins were correct in passing on an injured former All Star pitcher.
Just one year after making the All-Star team and finishing 12th in NL Cy Young voting, starter Henderson Alvarez has been cut loose by the Miami Marlins, Yahoo Sports reports.
Miami non-tendered Alvarez on Wednesday night to release him into free agency. Alvarez can now sign with any team.
Alvarez is a five-year pro who had his worst season in 2015. He went 0-4 with a 6.45 ERA before having season-ending shoulder surgery in June.
Alvarez made the All-Star team in 2014 and finished 12-7 with a 2.65 ERA in 30 starts. He has a 3.80 ERA in 92 career games.
The shoulder issue could be a big problem for Alvarez, as it's not often teams give up on players this early. Alvarez is only 25 and was one of the NL's best pitchers just a year ago. But some team will take a chance on the right-hander, who will look to revive a once-promising career.
The Cubs have not been afraid to sign injured pitchers with the hope of rehabbing them. However, shoulder injuries are more problematic for pitchers because the shoulder is the weakest body part in the mechanics of throwing.
For example, Labral tears is an injury to the labrum of the shoulder in a thrower is not something is significant. . Labral tears are just part of the territory for a major league pitcher; it's just a question of degree and disability. In other words, if you were to look through a surgical scope at the inside of a thrower's shoulder, including those that had no reported symptoms, you would find damage to the labrum more often than not. Some pitchers manage to throw and throw well despite the presence of significant tissue damage. Other pitchers have relatively minor injuries, but are completely incapacitated. The reason for this is unclear. It is not necessarily a question of pain tolerance; rather it appears to be a much more complicated mechanical picture.
The labrum is a ring of cartilage that surrounds the glenoid or the "socket" portion of the shoulder joint and actually serves to enhance shoulder joint stability. When torn, the labrum can catch, causing the shoulder to be painful and potentially feel unstable. The biceps tendon has an attachment to the labrum, so if the biceps is involved, it can lead to problems at the labrum. The labrum undergoes great strain where it attaches to the biceps at the extremes of motion, when the shoulder is at its fully cocked position before ball delivery, and at the end of ball release (during follow through). Since a pitcher repeats that motion time and again -- not only during a game but also during warm-ups, bullpen sessions and any other episode of throwing -- the labrum is constantly subject to stress.
Surgical repair may be the eventual treatment in a thrower who does not respond to a period of rest and conservative rehabilitation, and the recovery is lengthy. Pitchers do return from labral repair, but their timetable to return and their effectiveness when they do come back is variable. A pitcher coming off of labral surgery in the offseason should recognize that there is a bit of a risk involved until the athlete shows that he has indeed fully regained his form.
The Miami Herald reports that according to projections provided by mlbtraderumors.com, Alvarez is positioned to receive about $4 million through arbitration. Alvarez is coming off shoulder surgery and -- assuming there are no setbacks along the way -- likely wouldn't be ready to pitch again until a month or two into the season.
Even if the Marlins felt convinced that Alvarez will make it back and give them 20 or so starts, there's no guarantee he'll be the same pitcher he was before. On the other hand, $4 million isn't a lot to pay for a No. 2 or No. 3 starter. Now the Cubs have to determine whether the Marlins were correct in passing on an injured former All Star pitcher.
March 2, 2015
PROTECTING THE STAR
The helmet looks like a hybrid batting and football face guard helmet. It will be interesting to see if Stanton has any vision issues with the metal guard in picking up launch points of various pitchers.
With the league trying to mandate that pitchers were protective skull caps (to lessen the impact of hot shots up the middle), the evolution of baseball protective gear has been slow. But with so much money invested long term in player contracts, teams now have the incentive to protect their circus animals to avoid dead money issues.
January 8, 2015
TEN MILLION GAME OF CHICKEN
Dan Haren is not an "elite" pitcher. He went 13-11, 4.02 ERA last year, but he does not have a positive WAR since 2011. But he comes across as a player who believes he is entitled to demand where he wants to play, even though he is not a free agent.
Haren was traded by the Dodgers to the Miami Marlins in December. Haren previously told the world that he wanted to remain on the West Coast, close to his family.
The Marlins made the move to appease Giocarlo Stanton, who signed the back loaded mega deal this off-season. Stanton wants to play for a winning team, and Haren qualifies as a pitching staff upgrade. That is, if he shows up to camp.
Most teams try to avoid headaches and bad public relations. This trade and its fall out seems to fail on both counts.
Haren was traded by the Dodgers to the Miami Marlins in December. Haren previously told the world that he wanted to remain on the West Coast, close to his family.
The Marlins acquired Haren (for free), second baseman Dee Gordon and infielder Miguel Rojas in exchange for prospects Andrew Heaney, Chris Hatcher, Enrique Hernandez and Austin Barnes. At the time,
In fact, Haren reaffirmed his stance in a statement soon after the trade was agreed to.
"I have been notified of the trade to Miami. My strong desire to remain in Southern California has been well-documented. I will have to evaluate my options carefully before making any decisions."
Miami had hoped Haren would
reconsider. It's becoming increasingly clear, however, that Haren is set
in his ways. The Miami Herald reported that the Marlins have been exploring options, but are finding no takers.
At his request, the Marlins have been trying to trade pitcher Dan Haren to a team closer to his Southern California home but have found no takers. The Marlins have no intention of parting with the $10 million that the Dodgers are giving them to pay Haren’s salary or to keep if he retires.
The threat of retirement is aimed at the Marlins, a dysfunctional club that adds to the confusion by actively trading for a player who does not want to be a Marlin. But the price was right, with the Dodgers paying the 2015 salary. But more and more players have been putting partial "no trade" provisions in their contracts to avoid "bad" teams or bad locations. Apparently, Haren did not have the leverage to keep his trade options solely to the Western US. Teams hate to tie their hands with no-trade deals, because in the case of LA, it needed to restock its system with new prospects.If Haren retires, the Marlins will allocate that money toward Mat Latos’ estimated $8.4 million salary.
The Marlins made the move to appease Giocarlo Stanton, who signed the back loaded mega deal this off-season. Stanton wants to play for a winning team, and Haren qualifies as a pitching staff upgrade. That is, if he shows up to camp.
Most teams try to avoid headaches and bad public relations. This trade and its fall out seems to fail on both counts.
November 14, 2014
STANTON AND DELIVER
Giancarlo Stanton could be argued as the best major league baseball player in the NL (Clayton Kershaw fans excepted). Stanton, 25, has amassed a 21.2 career WAR in just 5 seasons, an average of 4.24 WAR/season. In his first year of arbitration, he was awarded $6.5 million. He has two arb years left before FA in 2017.
He is expected to break the bank either way. Several reports state that the Marlins are hot to get Stanton signed for a long, long term deal. ESPN reports it could be a 12 year $300 million deal, while CBS Sports thinks the number could be 13 years $320 million. This is record shattering territory.
Stanton commands these high numbers because of his consistent performance. Season WAR totals: 2.8, 4.1, 5.5, 2.3, and 6.5. His career average for a 162 game season: 39 HR, 102 RBI, .271 BA.
If one uses $5 million/WAR valuation, then Stanton being paid $6.5 million in 2014 was a steal. His performance value would have been $32.5 million. Even if Stanton's arbitration award doubles, he is still only getting paid half his value.
So it may be in the best interests of the player (and his agent) to tap the current controlled value into a long term deal. Teams only do long term deals if it is advantageous to it. The Marlins are a terrible dysfunctional organization with a cheap and arrogant owner. The team burned Miami taxpayers on a new stadium deal; had a fire sale of their veteran talent; and even fired Ozzie Guillen early in his contract term (some of that was Ozzie being Ozzie). Stanton is the one and only shining grace for the franchise.
If one uses the qualifying offer amount of $15.3 million as the floor to negotiations for a top player like Stanton, even a short term extension through his arbitration plus one year of FA would cost the Marlins $46 million. It would be a pay increase for the player, but still very undervalued even at average career WAR ($63.6 million). So the team has to pay a premium to keep Stanton for any free agent year. And it seems to top tier number is Kershaw's $25 million per season number.
Stanton could sign a three year extension for $75 million and hit the free agent market at age 28 for an A-Rod shattering next deal. It comes down to reward of a higher pay day against the risk of premature injury prior to free agency.
In 2012, the Marlins had the 7th highest payroll at $118 million. Then the fire sale, and dropped to the bottom at $36 million in 2013 and $46 million in 2014. Even under the short extension play above, the Marlins would be paying Stanton more than 50% of their payroll on one player. Throughout sports leagues, putting so much capital in one player is dangerous and at times, counterproductive (look at the Bulls and injured Derek Rose who eats of 36% of the team's cap space).
But keeping Stanton may be the Marlins only way to save the franchise from total ruin.
I would expect that any long term deal would be stair-stepped in value (putting more on the back end) hoping that the Marlins could catch fire and be playoff competitive (which equates to more gross revenue). A 10 year extension could be (in millions): $15, 20, 25, 25, 30, 30, 35, 35, 40, 40. That makes the deal worth $295 million. Stanton would become a rich free agent at age 35, and depending on his condition, he could get a Victor Martinez final deal of 4 year/$68 million.
In any event, there will be no charitable tag days ahead for Stanton.
But based upon his statistical value, Stanton has a limited market in trade or in free agency. Very few teams are willing to spend $200 million on one player. Teams would rather keep their top prospects than trade them for expensive veterans. Even the Dodgers and Angels have overspent in the last few seasons, and they now have payroll digestive problems.
A player is worth what the market will bear. Stanton is going to stretch that market to its outer limits.
He is expected to break the bank either way. Several reports state that the Marlins are hot to get Stanton signed for a long, long term deal. ESPN reports it could be a 12 year $300 million deal, while CBS Sports thinks the number could be 13 years $320 million. This is record shattering territory.
Stanton commands these high numbers because of his consistent performance. Season WAR totals: 2.8, 4.1, 5.5, 2.3, and 6.5. His career average for a 162 game season: 39 HR, 102 RBI, .271 BA.
If one uses $5 million/WAR valuation, then Stanton being paid $6.5 million in 2014 was a steal. His performance value would have been $32.5 million. Even if Stanton's arbitration award doubles, he is still only getting paid half his value.
So it may be in the best interests of the player (and his agent) to tap the current controlled value into a long term deal. Teams only do long term deals if it is advantageous to it. The Marlins are a terrible dysfunctional organization with a cheap and arrogant owner. The team burned Miami taxpayers on a new stadium deal; had a fire sale of their veteran talent; and even fired Ozzie Guillen early in his contract term (some of that was Ozzie being Ozzie). Stanton is the one and only shining grace for the franchise.
If one uses the qualifying offer amount of $15.3 million as the floor to negotiations for a top player like Stanton, even a short term extension through his arbitration plus one year of FA would cost the Marlins $46 million. It would be a pay increase for the player, but still very undervalued even at average career WAR ($63.6 million). So the team has to pay a premium to keep Stanton for any free agent year. And it seems to top tier number is Kershaw's $25 million per season number.
Stanton could sign a three year extension for $75 million and hit the free agent market at age 28 for an A-Rod shattering next deal. It comes down to reward of a higher pay day against the risk of premature injury prior to free agency.
In 2012, the Marlins had the 7th highest payroll at $118 million. Then the fire sale, and dropped to the bottom at $36 million in 2013 and $46 million in 2014. Even under the short extension play above, the Marlins would be paying Stanton more than 50% of their payroll on one player. Throughout sports leagues, putting so much capital in one player is dangerous and at times, counterproductive (look at the Bulls and injured Derek Rose who eats of 36% of the team's cap space).
But keeping Stanton may be the Marlins only way to save the franchise from total ruin.
I would expect that any long term deal would be stair-stepped in value (putting more on the back end) hoping that the Marlins could catch fire and be playoff competitive (which equates to more gross revenue). A 10 year extension could be (in millions): $15, 20, 25, 25, 30, 30, 35, 35, 40, 40. That makes the deal worth $295 million. Stanton would become a rich free agent at age 35, and depending on his condition, he could get a Victor Martinez final deal of 4 year/$68 million.
In any event, there will be no charitable tag days ahead for Stanton.
But based upon his statistical value, Stanton has a limited market in trade or in free agency. Very few teams are willing to spend $200 million on one player. Teams would rather keep their top prospects than trade them for expensive veterans. Even the Dodgers and Angels have overspent in the last few seasons, and they now have payroll digestive problems.
A player is worth what the market will bear. Stanton is going to stretch that market to its outer limits.
September 13, 2014
THE FACE OF THE FRANCHISE
Giancarlo Stanton is the face of the Marlins franchise. He is the team's best player by a wide margin.
Stanton, 24, was leading the league in home runs (37), RBI (105), slugging percentage (.555) and OPS (.950). In 2014, he had a 5.8 WAR. In his five years in the majors, his career WAR is 18.4.
He is always a trade rumor candidate. He has shown consistent power over the past five seasons. In any trade, Miami would get a blockbuster package in return.
But the Marlins have done fire sales in the past. And the fan base stays away in droves. Any team needs at least one player who performs well, stays out of trouble, and is fan friendly. Stanton is the face of the Marlins; an All-Star player with Hall of Fame potential.
Thursday night, Stanton was hit in the face with a fastball. Stanton took an 88-mph fast in the mouth off Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Mike Friers in the 5th inning. Stanton was taken off the field in an ambulance and is reported to have suffered multiple facial fractures, lacerations, and dental damage. He is likely out for the remainder of the season.
This is a player's worst nightmare, getting hit in the head. Cubs fans will remember that rookie prospect Adam Greenberg's first major league at-bat ended with him being hit by a pitch. That one pitch ended Greenberg's baseball career.
No matter what happens next, this injury will affect Stanton. One's body will program itself to defend against danger. His basic survival instinct may kick in for a split second to protect himself from inside pitches. Batting and contact with a baseball itself is a matter of split second coordination. In addition, there may be lingering effects from the facial fractures or possible eyesight issues to concussion concerns.
For baseball superstars, the high return in compensation is also tempered by high risk. One play can end a career. One injury can end a career.
Stanton, 24, was leading the league in home runs (37), RBI (105), slugging percentage (.555) and OPS (.950). In 2014, he had a 5.8 WAR. In his five years in the majors, his career WAR is 18.4.
He is always a trade rumor candidate. He has shown consistent power over the past five seasons. In any trade, Miami would get a blockbuster package in return.
But the Marlins have done fire sales in the past. And the fan base stays away in droves. Any team needs at least one player who performs well, stays out of trouble, and is fan friendly. Stanton is the face of the Marlins; an All-Star player with Hall of Fame potential.
Thursday night, Stanton was hit in the face with a fastball. Stanton took an 88-mph fast in the mouth off Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Mike Friers in the 5th inning. Stanton was taken off the field in an ambulance and is reported to have suffered multiple facial fractures, lacerations, and dental damage. He is likely out for the remainder of the season.
This is a player's worst nightmare, getting hit in the head. Cubs fans will remember that rookie prospect Adam Greenberg's first major league at-bat ended with him being hit by a pitch. That one pitch ended Greenberg's baseball career.
No matter what happens next, this injury will affect Stanton. One's body will program itself to defend against danger. His basic survival instinct may kick in for a split second to protect himself from inside pitches. Batting and contact with a baseball itself is a matter of split second coordination. In addition, there may be lingering effects from the facial fractures or possible eyesight issues to concussion concerns.
For baseball superstars, the high return in compensation is also tempered by high risk. One play can end a career. One injury can end a career.
August 9, 2014
TURNER
Once one of the best Tiger pitching prospects, Jacob Turner wound up in a trade to the Marlins, who for head-scratching reasons, put him on waivers to clear a 40 man roster spot.
Just as bizarre, the woeful Rockies, in need of pitching, passed on Turner. The Cubs, next in line, put in a waiver claim. And apparently, got the young, prized pitcher for two minor leaguers.
The Tribune’s Paul Sullivan reports that two Class-A pitchers will be headed to the Marlins, and Keith Law follows up by saying hat it’ll be a pair of relievers, neither of whom is well-regarded.
Turner, 23, is a former first-round pick of the Tigers, and it wasn’t long ago that he was regarded as one of baseball’s top prospects. Acquired by Miami as the centerpiece to 2012′s Anibal Sanchez/Omar Infante deal with Detroit, Turner has struggled with the Marlins and was designated for assignment because he is out of minor league options. While the Marlins reportedly had lost patience with Turner after his struggles in both the rotation and the bullpen, the move is a curious one for a team that typically doesn’t spend much; cost-controllable starters with this type of upside are hard to come by, and Turner’s rotation spot will reportedly be filled by journeyman Brad Penny, making this decision a puzzling one, to say the least, according to MLBTR.
Though Turner’s ERA jumped from 3.74 last year (in 118 innings) to 5.97 in this year’s 78 1/3 innings, Turner’s K/9 rate, swinging strike rate and average fastball velocity have all increased (though the velocity is likely tied somewhat to his eventual transition to the bullpen). Meanwhile, his BB/9 rate has dipped from 4.1 to 2.6. He’s also seen his ground-ball rate spike from a solid 45.7 percent to a strong 51.3 percent this season.
Turner, who signed a Major League deal out of the draft (before the CBA banned such contracts), has a $1MM option for next season and can be controlled via arbitration once he has accumulated three years of Major League service. He’s controllable through at least the 2018 season for the Cubs.
From the Cubs 2015 prospective, Turner may fall into the fifth starter role or long relief. Since the Cubs need young starting pitching, one will think that the Cubs will hope Turner can be an effective starter in spring training.
Just as bizarre, the woeful Rockies, in need of pitching, passed on Turner. The Cubs, next in line, put in a waiver claim. And apparently, got the young, prized pitcher for two minor leaguers.
The Tribune’s Paul Sullivan reports that two Class-A pitchers will be headed to the Marlins, and Keith Law follows up by saying hat it’ll be a pair of relievers, neither of whom is well-regarded.
Turner, 23, is a former first-round pick of the Tigers, and it wasn’t long ago that he was regarded as one of baseball’s top prospects. Acquired by Miami as the centerpiece to 2012′s Anibal Sanchez/Omar Infante deal with Detroit, Turner has struggled with the Marlins and was designated for assignment because he is out of minor league options. While the Marlins reportedly had lost patience with Turner after his struggles in both the rotation and the bullpen, the move is a curious one for a team that typically doesn’t spend much; cost-controllable starters with this type of upside are hard to come by, and Turner’s rotation spot will reportedly be filled by journeyman Brad Penny, making this decision a puzzling one, to say the least, according to MLBTR.
Though Turner’s ERA jumped from 3.74 last year (in 118 innings) to 5.97 in this year’s 78 1/3 innings, Turner’s K/9 rate, swinging strike rate and average fastball velocity have all increased (though the velocity is likely tied somewhat to his eventual transition to the bullpen). Meanwhile, his BB/9 rate has dipped from 4.1 to 2.6. He’s also seen his ground-ball rate spike from a solid 45.7 percent to a strong 51.3 percent this season.
Turner, who signed a Major League deal out of the draft (before the CBA banned such contracts), has a $1MM option for next season and can be controlled via arbitration once he has accumulated three years of Major League service. He’s controllable through at least the 2018 season for the Cubs.
From the Cubs 2015 prospective, Turner may fall into the fifth starter role or long relief. Since the Cubs need young starting pitching, one will think that the Cubs will hope Turner can be an effective starter in spring training.
August 6, 2014
WAIVER CLAIM
MLBTR recaps a very odd chain of events:
The Cubs have claimed Marlins righty Jacob Turner off revocable waivers, ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden was first to report (on Twitter). (Chris Cotillo of MLBDailyDish.com also reported the claim by the Cubs, on Twitter. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports first tweeted that Turner had been claimed by a National League club.)
A deal is likely, of course, because Turner was designated for assignment and therefore would ultimately go back onto waivers if Miami were to pull him back. In that event, the same waiver priority order would apply. Only the Rockies (worst record in the National League) had a higher priority than the Cubs, meaning that Colorado passed on the chance to add the 23-year-old, once-hyped righty. That, seemingly, is a mystifying decision for an organization that has been clamoring for young pitching, especially given Turner’s increasing propensity for generating grounders.
Meanwhile, the Cubs seem likely to add yet another interesting young arm in need of a fresh start. In addition to showing a willingness to sign and flip veteran free agents, Chicago has targeted struggling-but-talented young pitchers through trade. After picking up Jake Arrieta and Pedro Strop last year in the Scott Feldman deal, for instance, the Cubs recently took Felix Doubront off of the Red Sox’ hands.
From the Marlins’ perspective, this move comes at an odd time. Had the team decided to part with him just a week ago, it would have had a much stronger position from which to craft a trade. Instead, Miami’s only leverage against the Cubs would be the possibility that Colorado might not pass on Turner a second time if he were to reach outright waivers.
Turner was a highly touted and near untouchable Tiger prospect. But he has had trouble reaching the hype. He seems to be another down pitching prospect that the Cubs want to fish for (like Arrieta.)
In 53 GP over four seasons (40 in the last two), Turner has a record of 9-21, 4.77 ERA, 1.462 WHIP and career WAR of 0.1. Nothing to write home about.
Perhaps the release of Nate Schierholtz (to activate Fujikawa from 60 day DL) would be a better "catch" for the Rockies than a seemingly AAA pitching prospect in Turner (since the Cubs are playing the Rockies currently, there may have been some discussions about not taking someone off the wire).
It is doubtful that the Marlins, a mixed up organization to say the least, has any leverage to get a quality player from the Cubs since they have already made it known that Turner is not going to be kept on their 40 man roster. At best, maybe a low Class A pitcher like the Cubs got from the Dodgers for Barney.
A deal is likely, of course, because Turner was designated for assignment and therefore would ultimately go back onto waivers if Miami were to pull him back. In that event, the same waiver priority order would apply. Only the Rockies (worst record in the National League) had a higher priority than the Cubs, meaning that Colorado passed on the chance to add the 23-year-old, once-hyped righty. That, seemingly, is a mystifying decision for an organization that has been clamoring for young pitching, especially given Turner’s increasing propensity for generating grounders.
Meanwhile, the Cubs seem likely to add yet another interesting young arm in need of a fresh start. In addition to showing a willingness to sign and flip veteran free agents, Chicago has targeted struggling-but-talented young pitchers through trade. After picking up Jake Arrieta and Pedro Strop last year in the Scott Feldman deal, for instance, the Cubs recently took Felix Doubront off of the Red Sox’ hands.
From the Marlins’ perspective, this move comes at an odd time. Had the team decided to part with him just a week ago, it would have had a much stronger position from which to craft a trade. Instead, Miami’s only leverage against the Cubs would be the possibility that Colorado might not pass on Turner a second time if he were to reach outright waivers.
Turner was a highly touted and near untouchable Tiger prospect. But he has had trouble reaching the hype. He seems to be another down pitching prospect that the Cubs want to fish for (like Arrieta.)
In 53 GP over four seasons (40 in the last two), Turner has a record of 9-21, 4.77 ERA, 1.462 WHIP and career WAR of 0.1. Nothing to write home about.
Perhaps the release of Nate Schierholtz (to activate Fujikawa from 60 day DL) would be a better "catch" for the Rockies than a seemingly AAA pitching prospect in Turner (since the Cubs are playing the Rockies currently, there may have been some discussions about not taking someone off the wire).
It is doubtful that the Marlins, a mixed up organization to say the least, has any leverage to get a quality player from the Cubs since they have already made it known that Turner is not going to be kept on their 40 man roster. At best, maybe a low Class A pitcher like the Cubs got from the Dodgers for Barney.
March 7, 2014
REALLY?
The Miami Marlins had their panties all in a bunch because the Red Sox failed to field a respectable team for an exhibition game. The Marlins, who only had 62 wins last season, were upset that the Red Sox line up had no players with any major league experience. No one on the 25 man roster. A "B" squad. A AAA/AA team of journeymen looking to try to land a job.
It is ironic that the Marlins fielded such a team last year - - - during the real season.
Why the outrage?
Because the Marlins were charging "premium" ticket prices for their fans to see the champions.
And the Marlins cited alleged rules that each team must have four major league players play during spring training games.
Which is odd, considering the Cubs fielded a split squad game recently that featured all their touted prospects (and no one complained).
Who ever heard of charging premium prices for exhibition games?
Who cares what players play during a spring training contest which does not count for anything?
Miami is a franchise in disarray. The team took the city for a ride in funding a new stadium. The team traded away all its high priced talent. The team is very bad as a result. And the real outrage is the team trying to squeeze more money from its fan base during spring training.
It is ironic that the Marlins fielded such a team last year - - - during the real season.
Why the outrage?
Because the Marlins were charging "premium" ticket prices for their fans to see the champions.
And the Marlins cited alleged rules that each team must have four major league players play during spring training games.
Which is odd, considering the Cubs fielded a split squad game recently that featured all their touted prospects (and no one complained).
Who ever heard of charging premium prices for exhibition games?
Who cares what players play during a spring training contest which does not count for anything?
Miami is a franchise in disarray. The team took the city for a ride in funding a new stadium. The team traded away all its high priced talent. The team is very bad as a result. And the real outrage is the team trying to squeeze more money from its fan base during spring training.
December 12, 2013
TRADING PASTA
Boredom set in. To relieve it, the Cubs made a trade. A trade that is like substituting one brand of pasta for another - - - you still get wet noodles in the end.
The Cubs received Marlin OF Justin Ruggiano in exchange for outfielder Brian Bogusevic.
Ruggiano, 31, did not repeat his breakout 2012 campaign ( he hit.313/.374/.535 with 13 homers and 14 steals in 91 games) in 2013 (222/.298/.396 with career bests in homers (18) and stolen bases (15) in a career-high 472 plate appearances.)
Bogusevic, 29, batted above his mean in 2013 with .273/.323/.462 with 6 HR, 16 RBI in 155 PAs for the Cubs. He is a career .236/.313/.370 hitter in 773 trips to the plate.
Both players can play all outfield positions, but Bogusevic is a better overall defender. Ruggiano has more power than Bogusevic. Bogusevic is not yet arbitration eligible, while Ruggiano is projected to earn $1.8MM this season.
This is a classic change of scenery trade of bench players who may be able to platoon with their new club. Ruggiano gives the Cubs another right handed OF bat to join Junior Lake. This is not an impact trade for either club. It is a weak press release to the fan base that their team is still trying to improve for next season.
The Cubs received Marlin OF Justin Ruggiano in exchange for outfielder Brian Bogusevic.
Ruggiano, 31, did not repeat his breakout 2012 campaign ( he hit.313/.374/.535 with 13 homers and 14 steals in 91 games) in 2013 (222/.298/.396 with career bests in homers (18) and stolen bases (15) in a career-high 472 plate appearances.)
Bogusevic, 29, batted above his mean in 2013 with .273/.323/.462 with 6 HR, 16 RBI in 155 PAs for the Cubs. He is a career .236/.313/.370 hitter in 773 trips to the plate.
Both players can play all outfield positions, but Bogusevic is a better overall defender. Ruggiano has more power than Bogusevic. Bogusevic is not yet arbitration eligible, while Ruggiano is projected to earn $1.8MM this season.
This is a classic change of scenery trade of bench players who may be able to platoon with their new club. Ruggiano gives the Cubs another right handed OF bat to join Junior Lake. This is not an impact trade for either club. It is a weak press release to the fan base that their team is still trying to improve for next season.
November 14, 2013
HOT AIR STOVE
Last night, the winter hot stove rumor mill started to pump out a lot of heated gas.
It was reported that the rumor was the Cubs would trade Starlin Castro and Junior Lake to the Marlins for OF Giancarlo Stanton. Only in a Cubs dream. When the season ended, the Marlins were adamant that they were not going to trade Stanton.
Stanton, 24, is the Marlin franchise. Last season in 116 games, he hit 24 HR, 62 RBI, .249 BA and .365 OBP and 2.4 WAR. In his four year career, he has hit 117 HR, 294 RBI, .265 BA, .354 OBP, 14.8 WAR.
In comparison, Castro's 2013 WAR was negative 0.6 and Lake's 0.8. Castro's career WAR is only 7.4 over four seasons.
To make a trade make sense, the Cubs would have to add another starter with a WAR more than 2.2 per season (a commodity the Cubs do not have) plus additional prospects.
But this is silly trade speculation on the part of media, fans, and agents who want to stir the pot at the winter meetings so their clients names are in the newspapers as being seen as something valuable.
There is no question that Castro and/or Lake could be traded this off season. Really, no one on the Cub roster is untouchable. However, it would be a public relations disaster to trade away a "core" player for more prospects when management just told its season ticket holders that their plan is just about ready to come together with the core prospects.
It was reported that the rumor was the Cubs would trade Starlin Castro and Junior Lake to the Marlins for OF Giancarlo Stanton. Only in a Cubs dream. When the season ended, the Marlins were adamant that they were not going to trade Stanton.
Stanton, 24, is the Marlin franchise. Last season in 116 games, he hit 24 HR, 62 RBI, .249 BA and .365 OBP and 2.4 WAR. In his four year career, he has hit 117 HR, 294 RBI, .265 BA, .354 OBP, 14.8 WAR.
In comparison, Castro's 2013 WAR was negative 0.6 and Lake's 0.8. Castro's career WAR is only 7.4 over four seasons.
To make a trade make sense, the Cubs would have to add another starter with a WAR more than 2.2 per season (a commodity the Cubs do not have) plus additional prospects.
But this is silly trade speculation on the part of media, fans, and agents who want to stir the pot at the winter meetings so their clients names are in the newspapers as being seen as something valuable.
There is no question that Castro and/or Lake could be traded this off season. Really, no one on the Cub roster is untouchable. However, it would be a public relations disaster to trade away a "core" player for more prospects when management just told its season ticket holders that their plan is just about ready to come together with the core prospects.
October 26, 2013
EXPANSION
The Red Sox went from a disastrous implosion to the World Series in a year. The team did so not by rebuilding but re-tooling its existing roster to fill in the needs in order to be competitive. It worked.
The Cubs have decided to blow up the entire organization and start from scratch. The major league roster has been filled with AAA players because in reality, any waiver wire move means that claimed player is valued or ranked 1,200 or higher (30 teams times 40 man protected rosters). The Cubs have been running their organization like an expansion team. So how long did it take the last four expansion teams to find success?
In 1969, Montreal Expos were awarded a franchise. Throughout its history, it has garnered only 2 playoff appearances. It's first winning season happened in 1980 (90-72). That was 13 years after it started the franchise. It's first playoff appearance happened in the strike shortened 1981 season, losing in the NLCS. It took another 20 years for the team, now the Nationals, to reach the playoffs in 2012.
In 1993, Miami was awarded a franchise. Throughout its history, it has 2 World Series championships, 2 pennants in 2 playoff appearances. It's first winning season happened after 5 years in 1997 (92-70) and a championship. The next WS championship happened in 2003, 11 years after its initial charter.
In 1998, Tampa came into the league. Throughout its history, it has 1 pennant and 3 playoff appearances. It's first winning season came after 11 years in 2008 (97-65) when they lost in the World Series.
Also in 1998, Arizona came into the league. In its history, it has 1 World Series championship, 1 pennant and 5 playoff appearances. It's first winning season came in year 2 (100-62), losing in the LDS. In year 4 of existence, the Diamondbacks won the World Series in 2001.
If we take these examples, we find that it takes a modern expansion team 7.75 years to obtain a winning record and approximately 8 years to make the playoffs.
The Cubs have completed only year 2 of the rebuild with little prospects of improvement in 2014. Taking the past as a guide to the future, the Cubs will need at least 5 more years of rebuilding to become a competitive/playoff team. That projects to 2018 which is beyond the prior guesses from local media pundits. That is long time to wait.
If the Cubs current 10 percent decline in annual attendance continues during this long rebuild process, it is estimated that by the time 2018 rolls around, attendance would be down 876,000 patrons to about 1.535 million. Attendance is a key barometer of fan support. The pure expansion team model can lead to tough times at the box office and further constrict payroll when the time comes to "fill in the gaps" during free agency.
The Cubs have decided to blow up the entire organization and start from scratch. The major league roster has been filled with AAA players because in reality, any waiver wire move means that claimed player is valued or ranked 1,200 or higher (30 teams times 40 man protected rosters). The Cubs have been running their organization like an expansion team. So how long did it take the last four expansion teams to find success?
In 1969, Montreal Expos were awarded a franchise. Throughout its history, it has garnered only 2 playoff appearances. It's first winning season happened in 1980 (90-72). That was 13 years after it started the franchise. It's first playoff appearance happened in the strike shortened 1981 season, losing in the NLCS. It took another 20 years for the team, now the Nationals, to reach the playoffs in 2012.
In 1993, Miami was awarded a franchise. Throughout its history, it has 2 World Series championships, 2 pennants in 2 playoff appearances. It's first winning season happened after 5 years in 1997 (92-70) and a championship. The next WS championship happened in 2003, 11 years after its initial charter.
In 1998, Tampa came into the league. Throughout its history, it has 1 pennant and 3 playoff appearances. It's first winning season came after 11 years in 2008 (97-65) when they lost in the World Series.
Also in 1998, Arizona came into the league. In its history, it has 1 World Series championship, 1 pennant and 5 playoff appearances. It's first winning season came in year 2 (100-62), losing in the LDS. In year 4 of existence, the Diamondbacks won the World Series in 2001.
If we take these examples, we find that it takes a modern expansion team 7.75 years to obtain a winning record and approximately 8 years to make the playoffs.
The Cubs have completed only year 2 of the rebuild with little prospects of improvement in 2014. Taking the past as a guide to the future, the Cubs will need at least 5 more years of rebuilding to become a competitive/playoff team. That projects to 2018 which is beyond the prior guesses from local media pundits. That is long time to wait.
If the Cubs current 10 percent decline in annual attendance continues during this long rebuild process, it is estimated that by the time 2018 rolls around, attendance would be down 876,000 patrons to about 1.535 million. Attendance is a key barometer of fan support. The pure expansion team model can lead to tough times at the box office and further constrict payroll when the time comes to "fill in the gaps" during free agency.
October 15, 2013
SCAPEGOATS
We have come upon the 10th anniversary of the infamous Cub meltdown in the 2003 NLCS.
The Cubs were five outs away from going to the World Series for the first time since 1945. Wrigley Field and the surrounding streets were packed with fans. The Cubs took an early lead in Game 6, with rookie Mark Prior mowing down the Marlins. Then in the 8th inning, myth and aghast took over.
ESPN showed its 2003 special last night, and ComcastSports Chicago will show their special tonight.
The direct consequence of these specials and other media coverage is that myth will continue to overshadow the reality of that series and the alleged fan interference play.
There was no fan interference. The biggest part of the myth is that there was fan interference on a fly ball. There was an umpire less than 10 feet away from the play, looking directly at it, and he did not call fan interference. By rule, a fan interference on a fly ball in the field of play would have resulted in the batter being called out. Since that did not occur, the fact is that no fan interference happened on that play.
However, Moises Alou's temper tantrum incited the crowd. Alou was never a great defensive left fielder. By all agreements, he was below average. It would have been a difficult catch for a better outfielder. His arm was bent with his glove over the wall. He even admits that "six arms" were reaching for the ball, not just one fan in head phones. The ball did not land on the field of play but into the front row seats, where another fan got the ball. Steve Lyons on the Fox broadcast telestrated that there were about six fans reaching for the ball, which was natural, normal occurrence. It was a historic playoff game so fans were on their feet. Eric Karros, the Cub first baseman, thought nothing about the play, until he saw Alou's reaction. That got Prior to point down the line for umpire assistance. Manager Dusty Baker popped his head out of the dugout, but did nothing to calm the situation. Rightfielder Sammy Sosa would later remark the Alou reaction got the team unfocused for the rest the game.
Prior had thrown more than 112 pitches at that time. Suddenly, there was a "incident" that caused the place to change its vibe. Broadcaster Steve Stone believes today that even though Prior was pitching well, someone from the bench, the manager or pitching coach, needed to go out to the mound and get the team back on the same page. That was not done. The lack of team focus became apparent shortly thereafter when shortstop Alex Gonzalez booted a routine ground ball which opened the flood gate for an 8 run Marlin inning.
The Wrigley crowd turned into a stunned lynch mob against the fan who did nothing wrong. For those who still believe to this day that "fan interference" cost the Cubs a championship are still fooling themselves. The Cubs LOST three games in a row to lose that NLCS. The Cubs were up 3-1 in the Marlin series. The Cubs hosted Game 7. The Cubs were leading the Marlins 5-3 going into the 5th inning (18 outs from the World Series). What most people forget is that Kerry Wood walked the pinch hitter (9th spot in the order) to lead off that inning. Then the Marlins formidable lineup of Pierre, Castillo, I. Rodriguez, Cabrera, Lee and Lowell clipped Wood for 3 runs in that inning that gave the Marlins and the lead they held to the end.
The incident in Game 6 played no part in the Cubs Game 7 loss. Or if it did, it was on the Cub players like Alou and Aramis Ramirez, who after Game 6, booked a flight home to the Dominican Republic to leave after Game 7. Some people would say that showed a lack of confidence or heart when players have checked out on the season with an important game to play. There were plenty of other instances where Baker mismanaged games. He did not trust his bullpen so he rode his starters. He did not manage Game 7 like a Game 7, win or go home, when he left Wood to struggle in the important, game changing 5th inning. The bottom line is that the players did not perform as well as the Marlins in crunch time. But instead of accepting the blame for their failure, the Cubs, including Baker, pointed the finger at one fan, forever seizing on a scapegoat to deflect criticism.
A scapegoat is an innocent victim who is used to absolve others of their misdeeds. If one goes back to 2004, you can begin to see the sea change of fan emotions toward their lovable Cubs. The curse began to turn into curses. High expectations for the Cubs did not pan out. In 2004, the Cubs for the most part were not very likeable. They groused about their broadcasters, they made excuses in losses. They began to underperform. As a result, some fans began to feel regret over the Game 6 incident.
So the Cub myth of the Billy Goat curse had morphed into a media circus about a fan scapegoat costing the team a championship. And this attention to find a scapegoat continues on. During the final stages of the Tribune era, fans were constantly on Alfonso Soriano. He was supposed to win championships. Despite being the best player on the team, he was the scapegoat when the Piniella Cubs laid a goose egg in two post-season appearances. The whole situation wore Piniella out to the point of early retirement. Soriano, and his large contract, was blamed by fans for the Cubs sudden fall from winning to perpetual losers. The team could not make any moves because of the budget constraints of Soriano's deal. This is also a myth, because an owner can authorize as much spending as he wants in baseball. It was a convenient trap by the new owner to decrease payroll which he called "unsustainable" while at the same time diverting family resources to massive real estate projects around Wrigley Field.
A scapegoat takes attention away from the real problems. No matter what the front office says, Dale Sveum was the scapegoat for the team's poor performance for the last two years. Sveum was hired because he was a hitting coach; he played the major league infield position; he was supposed to be a good instructor-teacher for the young players. The Plan was to eventually seed the roster with homegrown minor league talent. But the whole "plan" assumes that the organization has the minor league scouting and development gurus to make that happen. Since Castro and Rizzo regressed badly this last season, and fans readily saw this fact, something had to give in order to deflect decreasing ticket sales and to try to capture waning fan interest while the rebuild stalls.
Scapegoats are now part of the Cub legacy. It is not a kind way of running a sports franchise.
The Cubs were five outs away from going to the World Series for the first time since 1945. Wrigley Field and the surrounding streets were packed with fans. The Cubs took an early lead in Game 6, with rookie Mark Prior mowing down the Marlins. Then in the 8th inning, myth and aghast took over.
ESPN showed its 2003 special last night, and ComcastSports Chicago will show their special tonight.
The direct consequence of these specials and other media coverage is that myth will continue to overshadow the reality of that series and the alleged fan interference play.
There was no fan interference. The biggest part of the myth is that there was fan interference on a fly ball. There was an umpire less than 10 feet away from the play, looking directly at it, and he did not call fan interference. By rule, a fan interference on a fly ball in the field of play would have resulted in the batter being called out. Since that did not occur, the fact is that no fan interference happened on that play.
However, Moises Alou's temper tantrum incited the crowd. Alou was never a great defensive left fielder. By all agreements, he was below average. It would have been a difficult catch for a better outfielder. His arm was bent with his glove over the wall. He even admits that "six arms" were reaching for the ball, not just one fan in head phones. The ball did not land on the field of play but into the front row seats, where another fan got the ball. Steve Lyons on the Fox broadcast telestrated that there were about six fans reaching for the ball, which was natural, normal occurrence. It was a historic playoff game so fans were on their feet. Eric Karros, the Cub first baseman, thought nothing about the play, until he saw Alou's reaction. That got Prior to point down the line for umpire assistance. Manager Dusty Baker popped his head out of the dugout, but did nothing to calm the situation. Rightfielder Sammy Sosa would later remark the Alou reaction got the team unfocused for the rest the game.
Prior had thrown more than 112 pitches at that time. Suddenly, there was a "incident" that caused the place to change its vibe. Broadcaster Steve Stone believes today that even though Prior was pitching well, someone from the bench, the manager or pitching coach, needed to go out to the mound and get the team back on the same page. That was not done. The lack of team focus became apparent shortly thereafter when shortstop Alex Gonzalez booted a routine ground ball which opened the flood gate for an 8 run Marlin inning.
The Wrigley crowd turned into a stunned lynch mob against the fan who did nothing wrong. For those who still believe to this day that "fan interference" cost the Cubs a championship are still fooling themselves. The Cubs LOST three games in a row to lose that NLCS. The Cubs were up 3-1 in the Marlin series. The Cubs hosted Game 7. The Cubs were leading the Marlins 5-3 going into the 5th inning (18 outs from the World Series). What most people forget is that Kerry Wood walked the pinch hitter (9th spot in the order) to lead off that inning. Then the Marlins formidable lineup of Pierre, Castillo, I. Rodriguez, Cabrera, Lee and Lowell clipped Wood for 3 runs in that inning that gave the Marlins and the lead they held to the end.
The incident in Game 6 played no part in the Cubs Game 7 loss. Or if it did, it was on the Cub players like Alou and Aramis Ramirez, who after Game 6, booked a flight home to the Dominican Republic to leave after Game 7. Some people would say that showed a lack of confidence or heart when players have checked out on the season with an important game to play. There were plenty of other instances where Baker mismanaged games. He did not trust his bullpen so he rode his starters. He did not manage Game 7 like a Game 7, win or go home, when he left Wood to struggle in the important, game changing 5th inning. The bottom line is that the players did not perform as well as the Marlins in crunch time. But instead of accepting the blame for their failure, the Cubs, including Baker, pointed the finger at one fan, forever seizing on a scapegoat to deflect criticism.
A scapegoat is an innocent victim who is used to absolve others of their misdeeds. If one goes back to 2004, you can begin to see the sea change of fan emotions toward their lovable Cubs. The curse began to turn into curses. High expectations for the Cubs did not pan out. In 2004, the Cubs for the most part were not very likeable. They groused about their broadcasters, they made excuses in losses. They began to underperform. As a result, some fans began to feel regret over the Game 6 incident.
So the Cub myth of the Billy Goat curse had morphed into a media circus about a fan scapegoat costing the team a championship. And this attention to find a scapegoat continues on. During the final stages of the Tribune era, fans were constantly on Alfonso Soriano. He was supposed to win championships. Despite being the best player on the team, he was the scapegoat when the Piniella Cubs laid a goose egg in two post-season appearances. The whole situation wore Piniella out to the point of early retirement. Soriano, and his large contract, was blamed by fans for the Cubs sudden fall from winning to perpetual losers. The team could not make any moves because of the budget constraints of Soriano's deal. This is also a myth, because an owner can authorize as much spending as he wants in baseball. It was a convenient trap by the new owner to decrease payroll which he called "unsustainable" while at the same time diverting family resources to massive real estate projects around Wrigley Field.
A scapegoat takes attention away from the real problems. No matter what the front office says, Dale Sveum was the scapegoat for the team's poor performance for the last two years. Sveum was hired because he was a hitting coach; he played the major league infield position; he was supposed to be a good instructor-teacher for the young players. The Plan was to eventually seed the roster with homegrown minor league talent. But the whole "plan" assumes that the organization has the minor league scouting and development gurus to make that happen. Since Castro and Rizzo regressed badly this last season, and fans readily saw this fact, something had to give in order to deflect decreasing ticket sales and to try to capture waning fan interest while the rebuild stalls.
Scapegoats are now part of the Cub legacy. It is not a kind way of running a sports franchise.
April 29, 2013
MIAMI VICE
The Cubs won three out of four games from the Marlins. The Marlins fielded what could be best described as a Class AA 1/2 squad. Even if you bought a scorecard, you would not know most of the players.
The new Marlins Park was basically empty. It looked like a closed tourist beach after a toxic waste spill. There was little excitement, little noise, little fan activity . . . it was like playing baseball inside an airplane hanger.
The series does not bode well for the Marlins, as a team and as a franchise. The taxpayers of Dade County are fuming about the more than sweetheart deal the Marlins owner extracted from the public treasury. The fans are fuming about the fire sale trade of most of the roster over the winter. The slash in payroll for prospects plus all the revenue streams from the new stadium deal is a huge windfall for one of the worst owners in professional sports.
But that is what happens when you give a sports owner everything he wants under the vague threat of relocation. Miami, as a sports city, does not support its teams in sell-out attendance. Only when the Dolphins are good and playoff caliber do local sports fans jump on a bandwagon to go to games.
So the taxpayers got stuck with a $2.4 billion debt burden and the fans got a 100 plus loss team on the field.
There is an echo of Miami in the tone of Tom Ricketts recent statements. He said he needed his renovation deal for Wrigley to go through otherwise the team could not win. Most people believe that was self-centered pandering to fans to get politicians or community groups off their opposition to the project. But just because a city gives a team everything it wants or needs, it does not mean that the team will deliver on its promises.
The new Marlins Park was basically empty. It looked like a closed tourist beach after a toxic waste spill. There was little excitement, little noise, little fan activity . . . it was like playing baseball inside an airplane hanger.
The series does not bode well for the Marlins, as a team and as a franchise. The taxpayers of Dade County are fuming about the more than sweetheart deal the Marlins owner extracted from the public treasury. The fans are fuming about the fire sale trade of most of the roster over the winter. The slash in payroll for prospects plus all the revenue streams from the new stadium deal is a huge windfall for one of the worst owners in professional sports.
But that is what happens when you give a sports owner everything he wants under the vague threat of relocation. Miami, as a sports city, does not support its teams in sell-out attendance. Only when the Dolphins are good and playoff caliber do local sports fans jump on a bandwagon to go to games.
So the taxpayers got stuck with a $2.4 billion debt burden and the fans got a 100 plus loss team on the field.
There is an echo of Miami in the tone of Tom Ricketts recent statements. He said he needed his renovation deal for Wrigley to go through otherwise the team could not win. Most people believe that was self-centered pandering to fans to get politicians or community groups off their opposition to the project. But just because a city gives a team everything it wants or needs, it does not mean that the team will deliver on its promises.
December 31, 2012
WHAT PRICE FOR THE NEXT PUJOLS?
There have been several reports that the Marlins are not shopping star outfielder Giancarlo Stanton, but the team "is willing to listen" to any offers.
Baseball News Source website wrote an article on that subject, and defined potential suitors for Stanton down to five teams, including the Cubs.
So why is Stanton so important? Some consider him the next Albert Pujols. He is only 23 years old, and under a team's control for the next four seasons.
And his production has been outstanding. Last season, in 501 PA he hit .290, 37 HR, 86 RBI, 6 SB, .361 OBP, .604 SLG, and 5.4 WAR. For his short three seasons, he has a career .270 BA, 93 HR, 232 RBI, 16 SB, .350 OBP, .553 SLG and 9.0 WAR. You can plug him into right field and he will produce offense. He is a below average right fielder.
So any team should be willing to cut off their left arm to acquire a young All-Star talent.
So the author of the BNS article thought the Cubs could put together a reasonable package to acquire Stanton.
First, with the long term deal for Starlin Castro, top infield prospect Javier Baez could be tempting trade bait. Baez, age 20, absolutely mashed in the Minors during 2012.
Between Single-A and Advanced-A, the right-handed hitter posted a combined .294/.346/.543 line with 16 HR, 46 RBI, 50 R, and 24 SB in jut 321 PA’s.
Second, the Cubs would need to send a top prospect outfielder in the deal. It could be either Jorge Soler or Albert Almora. Since Soler is closer to the big leagues, one would think Almora would be the choice. The 18 year-old Almora, who is from Florida, was the Cubs sixth overall pick from the 2012 draft, and immediately impressed the franchise with a .321/.331/.464 line in 145 PA’s in the low minors.
Third, since the Cubs have found their long term solution at first base in Anthony Rizzo, the Cubs will have no place for power hitting 1B/DH Dan Vogelbach. The 20 year-old Vogelbach enjoyed one of the most impressive Minor League seasons out there. Between Rookie-Ball and Single-A (Short-Season), the left-handed hitter sported a .322/.410/.641 line with 17 HR, 62 RBI, and 39 R. With his OPS at 1.051, you have to be excited about this guy’s future as a hitter.
So the author concludes that a package that contains Baez, Almora and Vogelbach could land a current start in Stanton. I think it would cost even more than that; the Marlins would also try to pry away at least two top pitching prospects to sweeten the deal. The Cubs list Trey McNutt as their #8 prospect and Pierce Johnson #10.
For any franchise, this would be a once in a lifetime type of trade. However, Stanton may be so valuable that in the end the Marlins will keep him until his 2017 free agency year.
Baseball News Source website wrote an article on that subject, and defined potential suitors for Stanton down to five teams, including the Cubs.
So why is Stanton so important? Some consider him the next Albert Pujols. He is only 23 years old, and under a team's control for the next four seasons.
And his production has been outstanding. Last season, in 501 PA he hit .290, 37 HR, 86 RBI, 6 SB, .361 OBP, .604 SLG, and 5.4 WAR. For his short three seasons, he has a career .270 BA, 93 HR, 232 RBI, 16 SB, .350 OBP, .553 SLG and 9.0 WAR. You can plug him into right field and he will produce offense. He is a below average right fielder.
So any team should be willing to cut off their left arm to acquire a young All-Star talent.
So the author of the BNS article thought the Cubs could put together a reasonable package to acquire Stanton.
First, with the long term deal for Starlin Castro, top infield prospect Javier Baez could be tempting trade bait. Baez, age 20, absolutely mashed in the Minors during 2012.
Between Single-A and Advanced-A, the right-handed hitter posted a combined .294/.346/.543 line with 16 HR, 46 RBI, 50 R, and 24 SB in jut 321 PA’s.
Second, the Cubs would need to send a top prospect outfielder in the deal. It could be either Jorge Soler or Albert Almora. Since Soler is closer to the big leagues, one would think Almora would be the choice. The 18 year-old Almora, who is from Florida, was the Cubs sixth overall pick from the 2012 draft, and immediately impressed the franchise with a .321/.331/.464 line in 145 PA’s in the low minors.
Third, since the Cubs have found their long term solution at first base in Anthony Rizzo, the Cubs will have no place for power hitting 1B/DH Dan Vogelbach. The 20 year-old Vogelbach enjoyed one of the most impressive Minor League seasons out there. Between Rookie-Ball and Single-A (Short-Season), the left-handed hitter sported a .322/.410/.641 line with 17 HR, 62 RBI, and 39 R. With his OPS at 1.051, you have to be excited about this guy’s future as a hitter.
So the author concludes that a package that contains Baez, Almora and Vogelbach could land a current start in Stanton. I think it would cost even more than that; the Marlins would also try to pry away at least two top pitching prospects to sweeten the deal. The Cubs list Trey McNutt as their #8 prospect and Pierce Johnson #10.
For any franchise, this would be a once in a lifetime type of trade. However, Stanton may be so valuable that in the end the Marlins will keep him until his 2017 free agency year.
November 14, 2012
EPIC DEAL
The Blue Jays own website called the proposed deal "epic."
Blue Jays General ManagerAlex Anthopoulos has never been afraid to make the big deals, but the one with the Marlins suddenly catapults Toronto to near the top of the AL East.
Toronto's general manager appears to have orchestrated a 12-player deal with the reeling Miami Marlins that provides a major boost to the club's chances of reaching the postseason. In one quick strike, the Blue Jays filled their holes in the starting rotation and acquired an elite hitter to place at the top of their lineup.
The blockbuster trade was first reported by Foxsports.com and sees shortstop Jose Reyes, right-hander Josh Johnson, left-hander Mark Buehrle, catcher John Buck and utility player Emilio Bonifacio headed to the Blue Jays.
The demolition Marlins are to receive seven young players in return: shortstop Yunel Escobar, right-hander Henderson Alvarez, Cuban prospect Adeiny Hechavarria, outfield prospect Jake Marisnick, pitching prospects Anthony Desclafani and Justin Nicolino and veteran backup catcher Jeff Mathis.
The deal is pending player physicals and MLB approval of money to be exchanged between the teams.
Clearly, the Marlins have been in salary dump mode since their touted season in a new publicly financed stadium under a new world series pedigree manager Ozzie Guillen crashed and burned on take off. The small market Marlins suddenly spent huge sums on free agents such as Buerhle, Reyes, Heath Bell - - - cracking the $100 million payroll for the first time. But the team quickly fell to the bottom, and ownership was arguing with team executives at the end. The fire sale started before the end of last season with the trade of unhappy Hanley Ramirez to the Dodgers. Now, the completion of the dismantling of the team is apparent with the Blue Jays deal.
With the deal, the Blue Jays will take on upwards of $165 million in salaries. It's by far the highest guaranteed salary trade the Blue Jays have made during their existence in Major League Baseball.
Toronto was always interested in Reyes, who has five years remaining at a total of $96 million. He would give the Blue Jays a traditional leadoff hitter for the first time in recent memory and will allow the club to move third baseman Brett Lawrie down in the order.
Reyes is coming off a season in which he hit .287 with 11 homers and 57 RBIs in 160 games. He is just one season removed from winning the National League batting crown with a .337 average and would now play a pivotal role in Toronto's lineup by attempting to get on base for sluggers Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion.
The presence of Johnson and Buehrle in the deal would fill a couple of glaring holes in Toronto's starting rotation. The two proven arms would join Brandon Morrow and Ricky Romero in the starting five, while J.A. Happ would become the early favorite to win the final spot.
Johnson has just one year and $13.75 million remaining on his contract and is set to hit free agency following the 2013 campaign. Last year, Johnson went 8-14 with a 3.81 ERA during a somewhat inconsistent campaign, but he has the type of potential to be a bonafide front-of-the-rotation starter. From 2009-2011, Johnson went 29-12 with a remarkable 2.64 ERA in 70 starts.
Buehrle, 33, is the former White Sox ace. He is a consistent innings eater. He signed a four-year free agent contract worth $58 million with the Marlins to follow his manager, Guillen, to Miami, but now finds himself relocating for the second time in just two years. Last season, Buehrle went 13-13 with a 3.74 ERA in 31 starts.
The Marlins are to receive quality prospects. Marisnick (No. 2) and Hechavarria (No. 7) were both ranked among the Blue Jays top 20 prospects by MLB.com, while DeSclafani would have been a candidate to crack that list in 2013.
Alvarez, 22, was once considered one of Toronto's best pitching prospects, but he took a noticeable step back in 2012. He went just 9-14 with a 4.85 ERA and the lack of a consistent third pitch helped offset an otherwise overpowering fastball in the high 90s and a changeup combination.
The deal also provides a fresh start to Escobar, who received a three-game suspension for a racial slur, which only added to the disappointment of a frustrating season that saw him hit just .253 in 145 games. However, he is an above average defensive shortstop.
Mathis' inclusion in the deal had as much to do with Toronto's catching depth than anything else. The Blue Jays already have J.P. Arencibia entrenched as the club's starting catcher, while top prospect Travis d'Arnaud is waiting in the wings at Triple-A.
Buck could help the Blue Jays remain even more patient with d'Arnaud while backing up Arencibia, but there's an even stronger likelihood that Anthopoulos isn't done dealing and will eventually move another catcher. Or Buck could be moved in a trade to restock the Toronto farm system at a later time.
For the past couple of years, the Blue Jays front office talked at great length about the upside of Toronto's baseball market. President Paul Beeston envisioned one day of having a payroll around $150 million, but it always came with the caveat that attendance would have to increase first.
That finally happened in 2012, as Toronto increased its ticket sales by more than 3,000 per game. The Blue Jays ranked third in attendance with 2,099,663, which was their highest total since 2008.
Clearly, the Blue Jays are going "all in" in 2013 with the aging Yankees losing several players in the off-season and the Red Sox still in turmoil (after their blockbuster salary dump trade with the Dodgers). The Blue Jays now project to be #2 in the AL East behind the Tampa Bay Rays.
Blue Jays General ManagerAlex Anthopoulos has never been afraid to make the big deals, but the one with the Marlins suddenly catapults Toronto to near the top of the AL East.
Toronto's general manager appears to have orchestrated a 12-player deal with the reeling Miami Marlins that provides a major boost to the club's chances of reaching the postseason. In one quick strike, the Blue Jays filled their holes in the starting rotation and acquired an elite hitter to place at the top of their lineup.
The blockbuster trade was first reported by Foxsports.com and sees shortstop Jose Reyes, right-hander Josh Johnson, left-hander Mark Buehrle, catcher John Buck and utility player Emilio Bonifacio headed to the Blue Jays.
The demolition Marlins are to receive seven young players in return: shortstop Yunel Escobar, right-hander Henderson Alvarez, Cuban prospect Adeiny Hechavarria, outfield prospect Jake Marisnick, pitching prospects Anthony Desclafani and Justin Nicolino and veteran backup catcher Jeff Mathis.
The deal is pending player physicals and MLB approval of money to be exchanged between the teams.
Clearly, the Marlins have been in salary dump mode since their touted season in a new publicly financed stadium under a new world series pedigree manager Ozzie Guillen crashed and burned on take off. The small market Marlins suddenly spent huge sums on free agents such as Buerhle, Reyes, Heath Bell - - - cracking the $100 million payroll for the first time. But the team quickly fell to the bottom, and ownership was arguing with team executives at the end. The fire sale started before the end of last season with the trade of unhappy Hanley Ramirez to the Dodgers. Now, the completion of the dismantling of the team is apparent with the Blue Jays deal.
With the deal, the Blue Jays will take on upwards of $165 million in salaries. It's by far the highest guaranteed salary trade the Blue Jays have made during their existence in Major League Baseball.
Toronto was always interested in Reyes, who has five years remaining at a total of $96 million. He would give the Blue Jays a traditional leadoff hitter for the first time in recent memory and will allow the club to move third baseman Brett Lawrie down in the order.
Reyes is coming off a season in which he hit .287 with 11 homers and 57 RBIs in 160 games. He is just one season removed from winning the National League batting crown with a .337 average and would now play a pivotal role in Toronto's lineup by attempting to get on base for sluggers Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion.
The presence of Johnson and Buehrle in the deal would fill a couple of glaring holes in Toronto's starting rotation. The two proven arms would join Brandon Morrow and Ricky Romero in the starting five, while J.A. Happ would become the early favorite to win the final spot.
Johnson has just one year and $13.75 million remaining on his contract and is set to hit free agency following the 2013 campaign. Last year, Johnson went 8-14 with a 3.81 ERA during a somewhat inconsistent campaign, but he has the type of potential to be a bonafide front-of-the-rotation starter. From 2009-2011, Johnson went 29-12 with a remarkable 2.64 ERA in 70 starts.
Buehrle, 33, is the former White Sox ace. He is a consistent innings eater. He signed a four-year free agent contract worth $58 million with the Marlins to follow his manager, Guillen, to Miami, but now finds himself relocating for the second time in just two years. Last season, Buehrle went 13-13 with a 3.74 ERA in 31 starts.
The Marlins are to receive quality prospects. Marisnick (No. 2) and Hechavarria (No. 7) were both ranked among the Blue Jays top 20 prospects by MLB.com, while DeSclafani would have been a candidate to crack that list in 2013.
Alvarez, 22, was once considered one of Toronto's best pitching prospects, but he took a noticeable step back in 2012. He went just 9-14 with a 4.85 ERA and the lack of a consistent third pitch helped offset an otherwise overpowering fastball in the high 90s and a changeup combination.
The deal also provides a fresh start to Escobar, who received a three-game suspension for a racial slur, which only added to the disappointment of a frustrating season that saw him hit just .253 in 145 games. However, he is an above average defensive shortstop.
Mathis' inclusion in the deal had as much to do with Toronto's catching depth than anything else. The Blue Jays already have J.P. Arencibia entrenched as the club's starting catcher, while top prospect Travis d'Arnaud is waiting in the wings at Triple-A.
Buck could help the Blue Jays remain even more patient with d'Arnaud while backing up Arencibia, but there's an even stronger likelihood that Anthopoulos isn't done dealing and will eventually move another catcher. Or Buck could be moved in a trade to restock the Toronto farm system at a later time.
For the past couple of years, the Blue Jays front office talked at great length about the upside of Toronto's baseball market. President Paul Beeston envisioned one day of having a payroll around $150 million, but it always came with the caveat that attendance would have to increase first.
That finally happened in 2012, as Toronto increased its ticket sales by more than 3,000 per game. The Blue Jays ranked third in attendance with 2,099,663, which was their highest total since 2008.
Clearly, the Blue Jays are going "all in" in 2013 with the aging Yankees losing several players in the off-season and the Red Sox still in turmoil (after their blockbuster salary dump trade with the Dodgers). The Blue Jays now project to be #2 in the AL East behind the Tampa Bay Rays.
September 27, 2012
A SIDE SHOW
I remember watching the WGN telecast when it happened: a young Cub outfield prospect was pinch hitting in a game and gets brutally beaned on the head with the first pitch. Adam Greenberg was never touted as a great major league prospect, but he did have a good minor league average and some speed to be a reserve like a Seth Smith or a Tyler Colvin. His major league career ended on July 9, 2005.
Since Greenberg got hit in one pitch, he never had an official at bat. So a fan this season took up the cause and sought to have the Cubs give Greenberg an at bat. The Cubs passed on the PR stunt.
After Greenberg was injured, he attempted several come backs. He bounced around the minor leagues a few seasons, then left the game. It is one of many sad footnotes in baseball history.
The Miami Marlins trumpeted season is also a sad footnote. The Marlins spend money on massive free agents in the off season with the simple plan of winning it all this year. New manager Ozzie Guillen was to give South Florida his magic. Fans would flock to the new stadium. All will be good.
But Guillen started the season offending Cuban-Americans, and the Marlins players woefully underperformed. The Marlins owner called it quits, trading Hanley Ramirez to the Dodgers and putting Guillen on the hot seat.
So to salvage some good PR, MLB announed that the Marlins signed Greenberg, 31 years old, to a one-day contract to play on October 2, 2012 against the Mets. It may also be some karma payback for the Marlins, since it was one of their pitchers, Valerio De Los Santos, who hit Greenberg that night.
As part of the agreement, Greenberg is donating his one day salary (which is around $1,300) to a charity through the Marlins Foundation, the Palm Beach Post reported.
It may give some closure to Greenberg. But it really is a bad precedent. Even though the Mets and the Marlins are not in a pennant chase, Greenberg's position takes up space on the Marlin's 40 man roster. He is displacing a current prospect from getting maybe his one and only shot at the major leagues. Leave the happy endings to fiction like in Bull Durham or Field of Dreams.
UPDATE:
MIAMI -- Adam Greenberg struck out on three pitches as a pinch hitter. It was his first at-bat in seven years when the first pitch of his career beaned him out of the game. The Marlins gave Greenberg a one-game contract to complete the publicity stunt.
So Greenberg's career ends with 2 PA, 1 AB, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K, .000 BA, 1 HBP.
Since Greenberg got hit in one pitch, he never had an official at bat. So a fan this season took up the cause and sought to have the Cubs give Greenberg an at bat. The Cubs passed on the PR stunt.
After Greenberg was injured, he attempted several come backs. He bounced around the minor leagues a few seasons, then left the game. It is one of many sad footnotes in baseball history.
The Miami Marlins trumpeted season is also a sad footnote. The Marlins spend money on massive free agents in the off season with the simple plan of winning it all this year. New manager Ozzie Guillen was to give South Florida his magic. Fans would flock to the new stadium. All will be good.
But Guillen started the season offending Cuban-Americans, and the Marlins players woefully underperformed. The Marlins owner called it quits, trading Hanley Ramirez to the Dodgers and putting Guillen on the hot seat.
So to salvage some good PR, MLB announed that the Marlins signed Greenberg, 31 years old, to a one-day contract to play on October 2, 2012 against the Mets. It may also be some karma payback for the Marlins, since it was one of their pitchers, Valerio De Los Santos, who hit Greenberg that night.
As part of the agreement, Greenberg is donating his one day salary (which is around $1,300) to a charity through the Marlins Foundation, the Palm Beach Post reported.
It may give some closure to Greenberg. But it really is a bad precedent. Even though the Mets and the Marlins are not in a pennant chase, Greenberg's position takes up space on the Marlin's 40 man roster. He is displacing a current prospect from getting maybe his one and only shot at the major leagues. Leave the happy endings to fiction like in Bull Durham or Field of Dreams.
UPDATE:
MIAMI -- Adam Greenberg struck out on three pitches as a pinch hitter. It was his first at-bat in seven years when the first pitch of his career beaned him out of the game. The Marlins gave Greenberg a one-game contract to complete the publicity stunt.
So Greenberg's career ends with 2 PA, 1 AB, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K, .000 BA, 1 HBP.
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