Another comparison: this year's starting rotation vs. 2011.
Opening Day Starter:
1. RHP Ryan Dempster, same
Dempster is the last year of his contract. He is not the "ace" of the staff, just the most senior. Along with Kerry Wood, he is the face of the team - - - which ownership still needs to stress since ticket sales have been less than stellar. Dempster is in the swan song of his career. It is symptomatic that he gets the final curtain call on Opening Day for a team projected to win only 69 games.
2. RHP Matt Garza over Carlos Zambrano
Jim Hendry traded a boat load of prospects ("assets" according to new management) for Matt Garza. Garza at times looked dominate, but also labored through outings. He only scored ten wins in his Cubs debut season; not ace worthy even on a bad team. Zambrano turned out to be the best of the Three Amigo stud prospects (with Prior and Wood) but Z's behavior issues led to his downfall. Garza is a slight upgrade over Zambrano as the #2 starter.
3. RHP Jeff Samardzija over Matt Garza
This is another classic Hendry 2.0 move: take a very good relief pitcher and convert him into a starter. In essence, Samardzija is replacing Andrew Cashner in the Transformer Pitcher experiment this season. Cashner blew out his arm after his first start which helped create a circus of bad megshift fill-in clowns.
Besides changing roles, Samardzija moves up into the rotation at #3 which adds pressure. Garza as last year's #3 is clearly a better starting pitcher (especially in durability and experience) so this move is a downgrade from last season and probable slow motion train wreck in progress.
4. RHP Chris Volstad over Randy Wells
In a rare Cub move, there was an actual competition this spring for this starting pitching spot. In 29 starts last season, Volstad was 5-13, 4.89 ERA, 1.425 WHIP. Wells, in 23 starts, was 7-6, 4.99 ERA, 1.389 WHIP. They both pitched well in camp; Volstad had his worst outing after Wells was demoted to AAA Iowa. At this point, they are interchangeable average to below average starters so this position is a push going into this season.
5. LHP Paul Maholm over Randy Cashner
This is a no brainer. Cashner should have never been moved into a starting role. He was a closer in college and appeared to be moving toward replacing Marmol in the future. But some GMs have the desire to have power arms in the rotation (Clemens, Nolan Ryan) but fail to realize the difficulty of harnessing one inning power reliever into six inning starter. In 26 starts last season, Maholm went 6-14 for the Pirates, with a 3.66 ERA and a good 1.294 WHIP. However, Maholm is injury prone which is why the Cubs did not push him along during spring training. In essence, Maholm is replacing former Cub Ted Lilly as the Cubs lone lefty starter. In Lilly's last full season with the Cubs, 2009, he was 12-9, 3.10 ERA, with a stellar 1.056 WHIP. Anything close to Lilly's mark by Maholm would be a huge upgrade at the #5 starter slot.
For 2012, the Cubs have made 3 changes to the starting 5 which quite the turnover in personnel.
Garza, as #2, is a slight upgrade from last season; Samardzija as #3 is a downgrade; but Maholm, if he can stay healthy, is an upgrade at #5. So, on paper, the Cubs 2012 rotation is better than 2011.
March 31, 2012
March 30, 2012
UP OR DOWN: STARTERS
Dale Sveum announced his basic starting line up. How does it compare to the 2011 squad?
1. DeJesus RF over Fukudome.
It appears to be a wash at this point. DeJesus' career is on the decline. It is doubtful that DeJesus will have the power numbers normally equated with a corner outfield position. Fukey's .250, 10 HR 40 RBI seasonal average seems about DeJesus' projected 2012. So this move is not an upgrade over last season.
2. Barney 2B, same
Barney bulked up some in the off season and hit the ball well during camp. However, will the league adjust to give him a sophomore slump? Probably. Even though new management saw that second base was a weak position, they did not upgrade it with any viable competition.
3. Castro SS, same
The only question is whether the off-the-field issue will have any affect on Castro's consistent on-field performance. The new GM also failed to address the issue if Castro gets hurt; there is no ready back up in place (Barney is listed on the depth chart).
4. LaHair 1B over Pena.
Pena did what Pena does: hit homers, walks and have a low BA. Clearly, LaHair is house sitting first base until Rizzo is ready to be called up. LaHair will probably not have the 25 HR 80 RBI season that a Pena could be projected for, so most believe the Cubs have downgraded first base position this season.
5. Soriano LF, same
Soriano is a year old, and moving back up the line up card. That cannot be a good sign.
He will lead the team in HRs because that is all he has wanted to do the last few years.
With no other teams even inquiring about his availability, Soriano is blocking any prospect from getting a shot to improve more categories, offense and defense.
6. Stewart 3B over Ramirez
Ian Stewart is not going to replace Ramirez's offensive production at third. He may not even cover half of it. As for defense, history tells us that he is about the same as A-Ram defensively at third (below average). This is a definite downgrade.
7. Byrd CF, same
Byrd drops down the lineup card, which is a good thing. A #3 hitter with only 35 RBIs is not productive. Other teams have inquired about his availability to be a 4th OF/injury replacement but the Cubs appear not ready to part with Byrd (which would equate to an immediate call up of Brett Jackson).
8. Soto C, same
Maybe with non-factor Koy Hill gone, the prospect of Clevenger pushing for more starts will make Soto perform more towards his Rookie of the Year campaign than recent years on-off production.
9. Dempster P, same
No one can claim Dempster earned the Opening Day starter role over Garza, unless the only criteria was seniority. Dempster is in his final contract year (and probable career swan song).
So there are three changes in this year's opening day line up: DeJesus, LaHair and Stewart. Two of the three are downgrades over the 2011 starters.
1. DeJesus RF over Fukudome.
It appears to be a wash at this point. DeJesus' career is on the decline. It is doubtful that DeJesus will have the power numbers normally equated with a corner outfield position. Fukey's .250, 10 HR 40 RBI seasonal average seems about DeJesus' projected 2012. So this move is not an upgrade over last season.
2. Barney 2B, same
Barney bulked up some in the off season and hit the ball well during camp. However, will the league adjust to give him a sophomore slump? Probably. Even though new management saw that second base was a weak position, they did not upgrade it with any viable competition.
3. Castro SS, same
The only question is whether the off-the-field issue will have any affect on Castro's consistent on-field performance. The new GM also failed to address the issue if Castro gets hurt; there is no ready back up in place (Barney is listed on the depth chart).
4. LaHair 1B over Pena.
Pena did what Pena does: hit homers, walks and have a low BA. Clearly, LaHair is house sitting first base until Rizzo is ready to be called up. LaHair will probably not have the 25 HR 80 RBI season that a Pena could be projected for, so most believe the Cubs have downgraded first base position this season.
5. Soriano LF, same
Soriano is a year old, and moving back up the line up card. That cannot be a good sign.
He will lead the team in HRs because that is all he has wanted to do the last few years.
With no other teams even inquiring about his availability, Soriano is blocking any prospect from getting a shot to improve more categories, offense and defense.
6. Stewart 3B over Ramirez
Ian Stewart is not going to replace Ramirez's offensive production at third. He may not even cover half of it. As for defense, history tells us that he is about the same as A-Ram defensively at third (below average). This is a definite downgrade.
7. Byrd CF, same
Byrd drops down the lineup card, which is a good thing. A #3 hitter with only 35 RBIs is not productive. Other teams have inquired about his availability to be a 4th OF/injury replacement but the Cubs appear not ready to part with Byrd (which would equate to an immediate call up of Brett Jackson).
8. Soto C, same
Maybe with non-factor Koy Hill gone, the prospect of Clevenger pushing for more starts will make Soto perform more towards his Rookie of the Year campaign than recent years on-off production.
9. Dempster P, same
No one can claim Dempster earned the Opening Day starter role over Garza, unless the only criteria was seniority. Dempster is in his final contract year (and probable career swan song).
So there are three changes in this year's opening day line up: DeJesus, LaHair and Stewart. Two of the three are downgrades over the 2011 starters.
March 28, 2012
PICKING UP MORE TRASH
The Cubs picked up Shawn Camp after he was released from the Mariners. Why was he released? He was bad. But in one outing with Chicago, the powers that be said he looked good.
With the pick up of De La Cruz earlier, the Cubs brass seems like it now wants to stockpile journeymen middle relievers.
Camp, 36, again does not fit the youth movement of Epstein. Camp pitched last season in Toronto. In 67 appearances, he was 6-3, 4.21 ERA and 1.523 WHIP. This spring in 8 1/3 innings pitched with Seattle, Camp was 0-0, 2.16 ERA and 3.12 WHIP. But observers called his performance "old and outdated."
Management will meet tonight to finalize the 25 man roster. The bullpen appears to be the sore point.
There is a good possibility that both De La Cruz and Camp will make the bullpen spots, with Wells being optioned to Iowa as the 6th stock piled starter. Or Lopez could take one of those spots and become the opening "spot starter."
Inconsistent closer Marmol, fragile Kerry Wood, and lefty specialist Russell are the only clear bullpen arms. Dolis has made an impression to stick as the 7th inning set up guy.
Adding cast offs this late in spring training is an indictment on how bad the pitching talent was under Hendry's regime and/or how bad or late Epstein and Hoyer realized it to not better plan for rebuilding the bullpen.
With the pick up of De La Cruz earlier, the Cubs brass seems like it now wants to stockpile journeymen middle relievers.
Camp, 36, again does not fit the youth movement of Epstein. Camp pitched last season in Toronto. In 67 appearances, he was 6-3, 4.21 ERA and 1.523 WHIP. This spring in 8 1/3 innings pitched with Seattle, Camp was 0-0, 2.16 ERA and 3.12 WHIP. But observers called his performance "old and outdated."
Management will meet tonight to finalize the 25 man roster. The bullpen appears to be the sore point.
There is a good possibility that both De La Cruz and Camp will make the bullpen spots, with Wells being optioned to Iowa as the 6th stock piled starter. Or Lopez could take one of those spots and become the opening "spot starter."
Inconsistent closer Marmol, fragile Kerry Wood, and lefty specialist Russell are the only clear bullpen arms. Dolis has made an impression to stick as the 7th inning set up guy.
Adding cast offs this late in spring training is an indictment on how bad the pitching talent was under Hendry's regime and/or how bad or late Epstein and Hoyer realized it to not better plan for rebuilding the bullpen.
March 26, 2012
THE ALL-IN PROBLEM
The Cincinnati Reds have built their team to win it all this season. The Reds needed a set up man and traded for the league's best, Sean Marshall. Team MVP Votto is nearing free agency.
So what happens when new closer Ryan Madson (32 saves last season in Philly) goes down with a serious elbow injury? Internal closer candidates are Marshall, Nick Masset or A. Chapman, the 100 mph flamethrower that the Reds GM wants in the rotation. Manager Dusty Baker wants Chapman in the bullpen. This internal debate has now come out in the open with Madson's injury.
The only other option would be to trade for a closer. Teams that have closers do not want to give them up. Teams out of contention will trade a closer for a bundle of top prospects.
Would Carlos Marmol fit into the Reds bullpen as the closer?
There are no proven closers left in the free agent market. A team like the Cubs, that knows they will not contend this year or next, would give up a closer for more "assets." But in a year or two, the Cubs if the turnaround is successful, would themselves be in the market for a closer. Closers are hard to time by, or are expensive to sign.
So what happens when new closer Ryan Madson (32 saves last season in Philly) goes down with a serious elbow injury? Internal closer candidates are Marshall, Nick Masset or A. Chapman, the 100 mph flamethrower that the Reds GM wants in the rotation. Manager Dusty Baker wants Chapman in the bullpen. This internal debate has now come out in the open with Madson's injury.
The only other option would be to trade for a closer. Teams that have closers do not want to give them up. Teams out of contention will trade a closer for a bundle of top prospects.
Would Carlos Marmol fit into the Reds bullpen as the closer?
There are no proven closers left in the free agent market. A team like the Cubs, that knows they will not contend this year or next, would give up a closer for more "assets." But in a year or two, the Cubs if the turnaround is successful, would themselves be in the market for a closer. Closers are hard to time by, or are expensive to sign.
THE OLD AND THE NEW
The weekend debate was about the New Cubs. A few people are still in full honeymoon mode with the Epstein crew. They admit that the Cubs will do nothing this year, but they are happy that the new crew is getting rid of the deadwood of the past roster. Except, the latter is not quite true. Even if the honeymoon period is still in the fandom, the operations look more like a continuation of the Old Guard.
Example 1: is DeJesus in RF just a different version of Kosuke Fukudome? An above average defender who came to town with some batting credentials that never panned out?
Example 2: is the replacement at third base as good as the last one? Hendry traded with the Pirates for Aramis Ramirez because the Pirates could not afford to keep him because he was good and would demand a huge salary increase. Epstein traded for Ian Stewart because the Rockies could not afford to keep him because he was bad.
Example 3: the old organization put its future in three superstar starters (Prior, Wood and Zambrano) and only Z had a legitimate starting career. The new organization has brought in their first three starters as the core of rebuilding (Maholm, Travis Wood and Volstad). T. Wood has been awful, and Maholm under the weather most of the spring. Not a good beginning.
Example 4: the old guard held on to declining veterans too long, like Derek Lee at first base. Now the new guard is handing first base over to a veteran AAA player that the old Cubs failed to promote for years. The old guard signed Pena to be a stop gap player until something; the new guard is using LaHair as a stop gap until Rizzo is ready.
These examples don't instill confidence that the New Cub organization is operating that much different than the old organization.
Example 1: is DeJesus in RF just a different version of Kosuke Fukudome? An above average defender who came to town with some batting credentials that never panned out?
Example 2: is the replacement at third base as good as the last one? Hendry traded with the Pirates for Aramis Ramirez because the Pirates could not afford to keep him because he was good and would demand a huge salary increase. Epstein traded for Ian Stewart because the Rockies could not afford to keep him because he was bad.
Example 3: the old organization put its future in three superstar starters (Prior, Wood and Zambrano) and only Z had a legitimate starting career. The new organization has brought in their first three starters as the core of rebuilding (Maholm, Travis Wood and Volstad). T. Wood has been awful, and Maholm under the weather most of the spring. Not a good beginning.
Example 4: the old guard held on to declining veterans too long, like Derek Lee at first base. Now the new guard is handing first base over to a veteran AAA player that the old Cubs failed to promote for years. The old guard signed Pena to be a stop gap player until something; the new guard is using LaHair as a stop gap until Rizzo is ready.
These examples don't instill confidence that the New Cub organization is operating that much different than the old organization.
March 24, 2012
PICKING UP THE TRASH
The Cubs claimed relief pitcher Eulogio De La Cruz, 28, off waivers from the Milwaukee Brewers.
It was one of those agate type transaction list notations. De La Cruz is a five foot ten inch right hander, who has been with four different major league teams in the last four seasons. His overall record is less than stellar; he appears mostly in mop up roles.
In four major league seasons (with Tigers, Marlins, Padres and Brewers), he has a career record of 0-0, 8.16 ERA in 26 games (with 16 game finishes), an whopping 1.969 WHIP and a K/BB ratio of 0.77.
However, last season with the Brewers, he was in 11 games, pitched 13 innings for a 2.77 ERA, 1.154 WHIP. Is this an "asset" pick up, or stockpiling another arm to fill AAA Iowa?
Last season at AAA Nashville, De La Cruz made 23 starts, pitched 137 innings, with a record 7-6, 3.88 ERA and 1.409 WHIP.
Teams have to fill their minor league rosters with players to eat up innings. In a perfect world, there would be a steady promotion of drafted players moving up the minor league ladder. But in the Cubs world, that does not happen on a consistent basis, so you need to plug in career minor leaguers or AAAA players on a year to year basis. De La Cruz has little chance of making an impact in the majors this season.
It was one of those agate type transaction list notations. De La Cruz is a five foot ten inch right hander, who has been with four different major league teams in the last four seasons. His overall record is less than stellar; he appears mostly in mop up roles.
In four major league seasons (with Tigers, Marlins, Padres and Brewers), he has a career record of 0-0, 8.16 ERA in 26 games (with 16 game finishes), an whopping 1.969 WHIP and a K/BB ratio of 0.77.
However, last season with the Brewers, he was in 11 games, pitched 13 innings for a 2.77 ERA, 1.154 WHIP. Is this an "asset" pick up, or stockpiling another arm to fill AAA Iowa?
Last season at AAA Nashville, De La Cruz made 23 starts, pitched 137 innings, with a record 7-6, 3.88 ERA and 1.409 WHIP.
Teams have to fill their minor league rosters with players to eat up innings. In a perfect world, there would be a steady promotion of drafted players moving up the minor league ladder. But in the Cubs world, that does not happen on a consistent basis, so you need to plug in career minor leaguers or AAAA players on a year to year basis. De La Cruz has little chance of making an impact in the majors this season.
March 23, 2012
TEA LEAVES
The Cubs outrighted Sonnanstine to the minors yesterday. That opens a spot on the 40 man roster. That foretells how the Cubs will construct their pitching staff. Lopez, the veteran who has pitched well, we lose out on the starting rotation, but will be the long reliever/spot starter candidate. He came to camp only with a minor league contract, so to make the team, he has to be promoted to the 40 man roster by opening day.
The starting rotation battle appears to have settled on two players, Volstad and Wells, for the 5th slot. Samardzija has won the 4th spot. The Cubs want a power pitcher in the rotation, especially one to follow a finesse pitcher like Maholm in a series.
Volstad has the inside track because he was the return for the Zambrano deal. Zambrano has a good season in Miami, fans will cringe unless they see something tangible in return. Besides, Volstad has been pitching as well as Samardzija.
That leaves Wells, who has one option year left, can be sent to the minors to stay stretched out in case a starter goes down. He is too valuable as a starter to be demoted to the bullpen at this point. But not too valuable to other teams to be a trade candidate.
So we can pretty well pencil in Garza, Dempster, Maholm, Samardzija and Volstad as the Cubs rotation.
The bullpen shapes up as Lopez, Russell, K. Wood, Marmol and probably Dolis and Mateo. Mateo is out of options. Dolis has the inside track based on Sveum's recent comments. But the GM may want another left hander in the bullpen to help with match-ups.
The starting rotation battle appears to have settled on two players, Volstad and Wells, for the 5th slot. Samardzija has won the 4th spot. The Cubs want a power pitcher in the rotation, especially one to follow a finesse pitcher like Maholm in a series.
Volstad has the inside track because he was the return for the Zambrano deal. Zambrano has a good season in Miami, fans will cringe unless they see something tangible in return. Besides, Volstad has been pitching as well as Samardzija.
That leaves Wells, who has one option year left, can be sent to the minors to stay stretched out in case a starter goes down. He is too valuable as a starter to be demoted to the bullpen at this point. But not too valuable to other teams to be a trade candidate.
So we can pretty well pencil in Garza, Dempster, Maholm, Samardzija and Volstad as the Cubs rotation.
The bullpen shapes up as Lopez, Russell, K. Wood, Marmol and probably Dolis and Mateo. Mateo is out of options. Dolis has the inside track based on Sveum's recent comments. But the GM may want another left hander in the bullpen to help with match-ups.
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