NOT WINNING SOON

When the Cubs traded James Russell and Emilo Bonafacio to the Braves, one would have hoped the package would return a major league ready player.  You know, trading two players on your active roster should bring something back, right?

Russell and Bonifacio traded for a 20 year old Class A catcher named Victor Caratini, my immediate thought is that the Cubs really don't want to win very soon.

Look at the trades made and the return:

Samardzija for Russell (AA), not coming to majors until 2015-16.
Hammel for McKinney (A), not coming to the majors until 2016-18.
Straily (AAA) may not be a replacement level starter in 2015.
Russell and Bonifacio for Caratini (A), not coming to majors if at all until 2018-2019. 
Barney for J. Martinez (A), not coming to the majors if at all until 2018-2019.
PTBNL for Doubrount, who may pitch in #5 starter rotation mix in 2014 or 2015.

So the Cubs traded five players on the major league roster for
one (1) pitcher who was demoted to the bullpen;
one (1) pitcher who was demoted to AAA; and
four (4) prospects with various degrees of hype.

SHOPPING LIST

The very active Oakland A's traded the following players this season:

LHP Millone
OF Cespedes
RHP Straily (AAA)
SS Russell (AA)
OF McKinney (A)

They acquired RHP Samardzija, RHP Hammel, OF Gomes, LHP Lester and OF Fuld.

The bottom three prospects is what the Cubs received in their trade.
The top two went to the Twins and Red Sox in separate deals.

But it is clear that the A's were willing to trade these players to anyone.

The Cubs refuse to put the pedal down and actually rebuild the major league roster.
Some clubs prefer to call it "re-tooling."  The White Sox did in the off season and found two
quality starters in OF Eaton and 1B Abreu, who has MVP stats.

Since Oakland opened its trading cards to the world, would have the Cubs getting Millone and Cespedes a better deal than what they got?  People will say time will tell IF the prospects pan out.

But look at the line up card for the rest of the season and for 2015.

2014 (Second Half)

1. Alcantara 2b
2. Castro ss
3. Rizzo 1b
4. Cespedes rf
5. Valbuena 3b
6. Castillo c
7. Coghlan lf
8. Sweeney cf

Rotation: Arrieta, T. Wood, Millone, E. Jackson, Hendricks

2015:

1. Alcantara cf
2. Castro ss
3. Rizzo 1b
4. Bryant 3b
5. Baez 2b
6. Cespedes rf
7. Castillo c
8. Coghlan/Ruggiano lf

Rotation: Arrieta, T. Wood, Millone, Hendricks, E. Jackson

ALL IN

Oakland knows that dominate starting pitching wins playoff games.

It made another huge trade to acquire an ace.

The  A’s on acquired Boston Red Sox starter Jon Lester, the playoff-tough left-hander who can be a free agent at season’s end, in an all-in effort to win the AL West and make a deep October run, baseball sources told Yahoo Sports.

The addition of Lester comes 26 days after the A’s acquired ace right-hander Jeff Samardzija of the Cubs, and so they have remade the top of their rotation. They already had Sonny Gray and Scott Kazmir.

The agreed-upon trade will send Lester and outfielder Jonny Gomes to the A’s. In return, the Red Sox, embarking on their second roster makeover in two years, receive outfielder Yoenis Cespedes  and, critically, a competitive balance pick in the 2015 draft. Cespedes, 28, can become a free agent after the 2015 season. In his third major league season, Cespedes is batting .256 with 17 home runs and 67 RBI.

This deal shows the trigger of the A's. Jason Hammel, also acquired from the Cubs, has struggled in Oakland, going 0-4 with a plus 5 ERA and plus 2 WHIP. It appears Hammel is destined for bullpen duty or a DL stint to regain his form.

Boston came away with a fabulous return for Lester, who was going on the free agent market at the end of the year, probably looking towards a Kershaw megadeal.  The Red Sox get a legitimate starting outfielder with power in Cespedes.

And he is a critical point when looking at the Cubs trade with Oakland. It is now perfectly clear that the Cubs are purely focused on obtaining and stockpiling prospects than known major league talent. If the Cubs received Cespedes in the Samardzija-Hammel deal as well as a 2015 draft pick and either Addison Russell or Billy McKinney, it would have been a better deal since Cespedes instantly becomes the best outfielder on the major league roster by a mile. Cespesdes bat gives instant protection to both Rizzo and Castro in the line up. 

As Oakland is clearly "all in" for this season, it is also clear that the Cubs have folded their hand for 2014 by continuing acquiring prospects and not major league players. The danger is that the Cubs are hoping that these prospects, when the cards are dealt with the their major league promotions, will turn out to be aces.

There is just another concern about how the Cubs make trades. After the Lester trade, the Twins have acquired leftyTommy Milone from the A’s in exchange for outfielder and ex-Cub Sam Fuld. 


Milone lost his rotation spot with the Athletics earlier this month when the team acquired Samardzija and Hammel and any hope of him regaining that spot likely faded with Oakland’s morning acquisition of Lester.  The 27-year-old Milone had asked to be traded somewhere that he had a chance to start, and Minnesota certainly fits that bill.

Milone had pitched to a solid 3.55 ERA with 5.7 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and a 38.4 percent fly-ball rate in 96 1/3 innings this season. He owns a 3.84 ERA with 6.5 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 and 36.8 percent ground-ball rate in 468 2/3 innings for the Nationals and Athletics. He is eligible for arbitration for the first time this off season and can be controlled through the 2017 campaign. 

And since Oakland has shown all its trade cards that would or should have been apparent when the Cubs were selling their pitchers, the Cubs passed on another major league ready arm in Millone, who fits a pressing need for Chicago: starting pitching. A controllable pitcher with a solid ERA and a good ground ball rate would be a good fit in Wrigley. It is clear the Cubs could have given Oakland a Fuld type outfielder (pick anyone: Sweeney, Schierholtz, Coghlan, Riggiano or Lake) to pick up Millone or someone like him. This another piece of evidence that the Cubs are holding back on rebuilding the major league roster with major league experience for the long haul.
 

Statistics and expectations are the trading blocks of prospects. But how they actually play under the pressure of ML games is another thing. Bill Madlock was on the radio and he said in his day the only stats that mattered were wins for pitchers and hits for hitters. He knows about the new sabermetrics and new stats like OBP, but he remarked that OBP is meaningless if you are station to station runner versus a person like Rickey Henderson who could turn a walk into a triple. The object of the game is to score more runs than one's opponent, not to have a better sabermetric spreadsheet.

ANOTHER ARM

Mark Gonzales of the Tribune reports:

The Chicago Cubs are close to acquiring left-hander Felix Doubront from the Boston Red Sox, according to a scouting source.

Doubront, 26, is 2-4 with a 6.07 ERA in 17 games (10 starts) and has allowed 10 home runs in 59 1/3 innings. But the Cubs apparently believe Doubront has plenty of upside as they saw when they acquired Jake Arrieta from the Baltimore Orioles last July. It is hard to catch lightning in bottle, especially for a second time, but that seems to be the Cubs Plan A.

Doubront won't be arbitration eligible until 2015. He has a lifetime record of 26-22 with a 4.82 ERA. He struck out 167 batters in 161 innings but allowed 24 home runs in 2011. He will earn $586,000 this season.

The Cubs, under the leadership of President Theo Epstein, have acquired former Red Sox pitchers Michael Bowden and Daniel Bard in past seasons. Both pitchers played for the Red Sox when Epstein was the general manager. Both turned out to be terrible with the Cubs.

What the Cubs should be asking the Red Sox is about Jon Lester, but Lester is heading to megamillions free agency. And the Red Sox are double digits out of first place in the AL East so there is little reason to trade Lester if they want to re-sign him in the off season.

Cubs infielders Emilio Bonifacio and Luis Valbuena are the most likely nominal in-return trade items still on the block. Both infielders can be useful utility players for a contending team.

THE LONGEST TIME

Here has been the pattern of Edwin Jackson starts: watch just the first inning. Game over.

Last night, the pattern held true, with the Cubs down 3-1 to the Rockies.

Nothing more to see.

It was just as well.

The Cubs set a few records.  It was the longest game in club history at 6 hours 27 minutes. So much for the early morning curfew.

And the first Cub position player, John Baker, got the pitching victory. It had never happened before in club lore, not even by accident. Also, Baker scored the winning run in the 16th inning.

Both the Rockies and the Cubs used up their entire bullpens by the end of the 15th inning. The Rockies, which are as bad as the Cubs, had not scored since the first. Colorado used a starter while Rick Renteria went to Baker, who had not pitched in jest since the Cape Code league.

The Cubs had to grind through more than 6 hours of action in order to get a victory from an Edwin Jackson start. Early in the game, there was some discussion whether Jackson would be demoted to the bullpen or even released. But neither makes any sense since the Cubs really have no starter to replace him.

Jackson has a pattern of giving up runs in the first inning. Lots of runs.

Steve Stone remarked earlier this season that some pitchers do not take enough warm up pitches in their pregame routine. It means that they do not have their arm stretched fully for speed and control. In other words, the first inning and higher pitch count is a result of not being fully warmed up. Then pitchers seem to settle in after the second inning. One could wonder if this is Jackson's problem (since he really did not have it when he was with the White Sox and pitching guru Don Cooper).

If that is the simple solution, it will save an already taxed bullpen, which had reliever Neil Ramirez's arm fatigue go on the 15 day DL (instead of Iowa for "rest" because of player's union objection since a disabled player still gets major league salary and service time).

WADA YA KNOW

After 9 seasons in Japan, and 3 injury plagued U.S, minor league years, Yoshie Wada got his first NL win. On the Cub pre-season depth chart, he ranked around the club's # 10 starter.

Wada reminds me a little of Ted Lilly just before Lilly retired. There is no overpowering stuff from this left hander. And in reality, he is not part of the long term answer.

In fact, no one of the Cubs current pitching staff is the long term answer. Other clubs have asked on Jake Arrieta, and the Cubs said no. Arrieta is under team control for 3 more years. But will the Cubs actually be competitive in three years?

The answer is no. And the reason is pitching, or the lack thereof.

Edwin Jackson is horrible. Travis Wood is perplexingly bad. Chris Rusin, Dallas Beeler, and Kyle Hendricks are AAA fodder. Grimm could be stretched out to be a starter in 2015, and James Russell wants to be one too (but his track record is really bad). There is no one arm to build an entire staff around.

I really don't see Ricketts writing Yankee size $200 million checks to acquire the best starting pitchers in the winter of 2017.  So many of the best prospects will have to be traded in order to build a quality major league staff of veteran talent. But that seems to be contrary to The Plan.

You can try to outhit the competition, but over time pitchers have an advantage over hitters. Hitting prospects are usually easier to develop, have a broader resume, than pitchers. Pitchers tend to have more development issues with body mechanics, arm slot changes, and adding new pitches in the mix. Pitchers can go through high school and college with a plus fastball and a change up. Major league starters need at least 3 quality pitches, especially since major league hitters live off fastballs.

Wada joins a growing list of journeymen pitchers on the Cubs roster. It is not his fault. But his destiny is written on the new Wrigley bricks.

HOF

No one can really argue that the six men inducted into the 2014 Hall of Fame did not deserve the honor.

Maddux, Glavine and Frank Thomas were all All-Star/MVP caliber players during their eras.

Cox, LaRussa and Torre all had long managerial careers, with plenty of playoff teams and at least one World Series title.

The Hall is in the process of changing its rules. Instead of a player being on the ballot for 15 years (if he continues to get 5% of the vote), it is going down to a 10 year window.  Many have argued that if you are a Hall of Fame player, you should get on the ballot in the first year.

Yes and no. Yes, a player's stats don't change as the ballots pass from year to year. Yes, if you are Hall worthy, waiting a decade does not make a lot of sense. But, there are a few "no" issues. There are several sportswriters who believe that no one is entitled to first ballot selection, unless you are the monster equivalent of Babe Ruth, who totally transformed the game. So there is a current ballot bias. Also, each voter can only select up to ten candidates. And to get into the Hall, there needs to be 75% approval.  Last year, 571 members voted. One needed to get voted in by 429 votes.

Besides ballot bias, there is also hometown and league bias. There is very little turnover in the sportswriter membership. Many will have to write columns about their own hometown players on the ballot. And many may not have seen much of the other league players (but with today's overexposure on internet and MLB.com that excuse should fade over time).  So many voters are pressured to "waste" their votes on players who will not get 75%.

Since 10 years only gives a player a shorter chance to be elected to the Hall, writers may actually not use all their 10 selection votes in an attempt to narrow the process further to truly "worthy" candidates. In the same process, a worthy candidate may lose support quicker after a couple of years and never have a chance to be elected by the writers.

There has been no reason stated for the rule change. It could be to allow players falling off the ballot to be reviewed by a veteran's committee. But history has shown that the veteran's committee is a harder vote to get than from the writers.