BARGAIN SALE

When the White Sox shopped Chris Sale, the team wanted to receive top value in return.

The Red Sox acquired Sale. To date, Boston has to be thrilled with his performance.

In 21 starts this season, Sale is 13-4, 2.37 ERA, 211 K, 0.876 WHIP and 5.3 WAR.  He is clearly on pace for serious consideration for MVP voting.

The White Sox received several highly touted prospects for Sale: infielder Yoan Moncada, rated the #1 prospect in baseball by some scouts,  hard throwing pitcher Michael Kopech along with  minor leaguers Luis Alexander Basabe and Victor Diaz.

Moncada has made his Sox debut. He hit his first major league HR off the Cubs. He projects to be one of GM Rick Hahn's "core" players in the rebuild. The Sox did not plan to rush him to the majors. But in 23 ABs, he is hitting only .130, with 1 HR and 5 RBI.

The trade will make sense for Chicago if Moncada is an above average middle infielder with power and that Kopech becomes a #1 starter in the majors. Power pitchers have a tendency to break down faster due to control issues.  Sale became a dominant starter when he learned to pull back his velocity, change speeds and play to soft contact to preserve his arm from stressful innings.

The White Sox have a strong history of developing quality pitchers so it seems Kopech is in a good system to succeed. If the White Sox get two All-Stars for one, then both teams can claim they got a bargain in the trade.

LIFE OF LUXURY

The Associated Press reported a record six teams are paying baseball's luxury tax this season, led by the Los Angeles Dodgers at $31.8 million and the New York Yankees at $27.4 million, the 14th straight year New York has had to pay the tax.

Other taxed clubs include Boston ($4.5 million), Detroit ($4 million), San Francisco ($3.4 million) and the World Series champion Chicago Cubs ($2.96 million).

Los Angeles owes for the fourth consecutive year and like New York pays at a 50 percent rate on the amount above the $189 million threshold. The Dodgers paid a record $43 million for 2015, and their four-year total is $113 million.

Boston and San Francisco pay at a 30 percent rate as offenders for the second straight year, and Detroit and the Cubs - a first-time payer - are at 17.5 percent.

The purpose of  the luxury tax in an effort to slow spending by large-market clubs and combined with revenue sharing has helped increase the competitive of small-market teams and those in the middle.

The threshold increases to $195 million next year under the new labor contract, and tax rates go up, too. There will be additional surtaxes, raising the rate to as much as 95 percent for the amount above $235 million, with the increase to be phased in for 2017 at the midpoint between the old and new rules.

Los Angeles lowered its payroll from a record $291 million last year to just under $255 million, which topped the major leagues for the third straight year. For purposes of the tax, which uses average annual values and includes benefits, the Dodgers' payroll was nearly $253 million.

Luxury tax payrolls figure to increase slightly across the major leagues next year because of a provision in the labor contract calling for the inclusion of salaries of players sent outright to the minors starting this Dec. 1.

The Yankees' regular payroll was second at $224.5 million, up slightly from last year's $223.6 million, followed by Boston ($200.6 million), Detroit ($199 million), the Cubs ($182 million), San Francisco ($181 million) and the Los Angeles Angels ($173 million).

Milwaukee had the lowest payroll at $65.5 million, down from $98 million last year. Tampa Bay was at $67 million, down from $77 million.

The AP report said that spending on 40-man major league payrolls totaled nearly $4.1 billion, an increase of $200 million.

There is an old saying that a team cannot "buy" a championship. But last year, the majority of big spending teams did well.

The Cubs got 103 wins, Boston 93, Dodgers 91, Giants 87, Detroit 86 and the Yankees 84. That is 544 total team wins by the luxury tax group or a winning percentage of .560 (about 91 wins).

REVERSE COURSE FULL SPEED AHEAD

In the previous two off-seasons, White Sox GM Hahn was credited as winning the winter by the moves he made to bring major league talent in an effort to win now. But all those acquisitions underperformed to the point of discontent both in the locker room and stands.

At mid-season, Hahn said he was unhappy with the performance of his club. He said the off-season would signal which direction the team was going to take. It is apparent this is a total, painful, four year rebuild process.

Ace Chris Sale had worn out his welcome with President Kenny Williams. The Sox could not win with him, so with his three year $48 million ownership friendly deal, the White Sox acquired four Red Sox prospects, including the #1 overall position prospect in Yoan Moncada.

Boston also sent highly touted pitching prospect Michael Kopech, outfielder Luis Alexander Basabe and right-hander Victor Diaz to Chicago. Moncada is the #1 ranked in the game, according to MLBPipeline.com. The deal marks the first time in at least 25 years that baseball's No. 1 prospect has been traded, based on the rankings done by MLB Pipeline and Baseball America.

If that was not enough, Hahn stunned the winter meetings by trading OF Adam Eaton to the Nationals for their three best prospects, including the #1 pitching prospect in the game.

Eaton, 28, is under contract for the next 5 years. He had a freak 6.0 WAR last season after moving from CF to RF. He had been one of the most productive outfielders in the Majors during the past three years even though he has flown a bit under the radar. Since 2014, he has accumulated a 12.7 WAR according to FanGraphs, which ranks 10th among all Major League outfielders. The locals who watched Eaton play on a daily basis were underwhelmed by his play, especially in CF. But the Nationals are going to play him in center so to move their best prospect, Trea Turner, to shortstop. Some believe that Eaton will wind up in RF in Washington because their home park has a large CF area that Eaton cannot cover. Bryce Harper, who is looking for a $400 million extension, could move to center. The Nationals clearly believe that their championship window is closing so they had to make a deal for an affordable, multiple tool center fielder.

In order to acquire Eaton, the Nationals traded Lucas Giolito (#1 prospect), Reynaldo Lopez (#2 prospect) and  and Dane Dunning (#6 prospect, last year's first round pick). The three right-handed pitchers are very young, but Gilolito and Lopez have tasted limited major league action. Lopez was stellar in some of his starts with a plus fastball and killer curve.  Giolito is baseball's number 3 overall and Lopez comes in at No. 38, but some scouts believe Lopez may have more upside.

So in a matter of 24 hours, the White Sox have turned their bottom quarter farm system into a Top 5 organization. The minors are now loaded with Top 100 prospects: 1., Moncada, 3.Giolito, 30 Kopech, 38 Lopez, 58 Carson Fulmer, 80 Zack Collins. The Top 10 Sox prospects are now 1 Moncada, 2, Giolito, 3 Kopech, 4 Lopez, 5. Fulmer, 6. Collins, 7 Spencer Adams, 8 Zack Burdi, 9 Luis Basabe, and 10 Dunning. Six of the Top Ten White Sox prospects have arrived in the past 24 hours.

The crazy thing is that the White Sox had good quality pitching prospects before the two deals. On the prospect list are pitchers Alec Hansen (14), LHP Jordan Guerreo (16), Jordan Stephens (17), Tyler Danish (21), LHP Brian Clark (22), and Chris Beck (24). No wonder no one blinks at the prospect that Hahn could pull the trigger and trade SP Jose Quintana to reap the same type of return as Chris Sale.

It is true that most prospects to not pan out to be impact major league players. But the Sox now have so much pitching depth that it is more probable than not that in the near future they will field a home grown, dominating starting rotation which would be the envy of the league.

GREAT MOVES

Dave Dombrowski has always been regarded as a good GM.

But in a few days, he has baffled the baseball world.



He acquired All-Star starting pitcher Drew Pomeranz from the Padres
in exchange for an 18-year-old pitching prospect. Straight up.



Then he acquired Diamondbacks closer Zeigler, who owns the team
 record of 43 consecutive saves, for two low level prospects.



So, the Red Sox acquired an All-Star starter and proven closer 
for basically nothing.



Wow.



Other GMs question how Dombrowski got away with such a haul
for nothing. But then again, he got the deal done with suspect
 GM Dave Stewart in Arizona (remember, he overpaid for Shelby Miller
 who is now in AAA), and a friendship with President Tony LaRussa,  and then dealt the hapless, rutterless Padres.



A few teams grumbled that they offered more for Zeigler than what
the Red Sox gave up . . . . 



But would not the Cubs or Cardinals or any other team have taken both Pomeranz and
Zeigler for three Class A prospects?!!


Of course they would.


But for some reason, only Dombrowski got the deals done.

Quickly. Early. Cheaply.


There have been many writers now thinking that Theo may be too enamored with his own prospects
to trade them for bullpen help. If prospects are the true assets in today's trade market, you have
to part with value in order to get back value.


Except if you are Dombrowski.

ODD TRADE

Two aggressive general managers in new places can make odd deals.

There is an old baseball saying that "you don't trade a starter for a relief pitcher." That seems obvious: relievers are failed starters. It is harder to find quality starters.

So this Winter Meeting trade is a little odd. Per CSNNE:

Dave Dombrowski's breakneck reconstruction of the Boston Red Sox continued Monday on the first day of baseball's Winter Meetings, as he dealt some of the team's starting pitching depth for more relief help.

The Red Sox traded left-hander Wade Miley (11-11 with a 4.46 ERA for the Sox in 2015) and reliever Jonathan Aro (0-1, 6.97) to the Mariners on Monday for hard-throwing right-handed reliever Carson Smith and left-handed starter Roenis Elias.

In the last three weeks, Dombrowski, the team's new director of baseball operations, has signed a rotation ace (David Price) as a free agent and traded for a closer (Craig Kimbrel). With Price on board, Dombrowski took the opportunity to use the team's excess starting pitching to continue to rebuilt the bullpen.

Carson, 26, is a big (6-foot-6) power bullpen arm, with 92 strikeouts in 70 IP last year and an ERA of 2.31. Elias is 27, from Cuba, and has made 49 starts in the last two years. He was 10-12 with a 3.85 ERA in 2014 and 5-8 with a 4.14 ERA last year.

Miley spent one season with the Red Sox after being traded over by the Diamondbacks for right-handers Rubby De La Rosa and Allen Webster.

The Red Sox trade a veteran starter for a veteran relief pitcher, but then get a young starter for a young reliever so some may think this is a positional wash.

A FIRE SALE

If there was one untouchable player on the White Sox roster it would be starter Chris Sale.

Sale is one of the best pitchers in baseball, probably the best left handed ace in the American League (even though David Price looks to break the bank this off-season).

White Sox GM Hahn has been quoted that no player is untouchable. What would it take to pry Sale from the White Sox. A ton of talent. 

Dave Dombrowski is the new baseball leader for the Red Sox. He has a history of being a shrewd trader. Pundits believe if anyone could get Sale in a deal it would be Dombrowski.

The Red Sox do have many trading chips that the White Sox could use.

CSN speculated:

Hahn likely would begin negotiations by aiming incredibly high and asking for a package revolving around shortstop Xander Bogaerts, 22, who produced a .320/.355/.421 slash line with seven home runs and 81 RBIs in his second full season in 2015.

But Boston also has young catcher Blake Swihart, of whom the White Sox are said to be fond. Not only have the Red Sox sought a front-of-the-rotation pitcher since last offseason, they also have a new head of baseball operations in Dave Dombrowski, who has to turn around a 78-84 club that was 14th in the AL with a 4.31 ERA in 2015.

It would take more than two starting position players to get Sale. It would also probably take one or two top prospects, including a pitcher, to swing a deal. AAA pitcher Brian Johnson, 24, #1 pick in 2012, is a LHP who is trying to avoid off-season surgery. He is the most major league ready pitcher in the Red Sox system.

The fan base backlash over trading Sale is something the attendance weary front office has to take into consideration. Unless is it a lopsided deal, fans will not accept Sale in another uniform.

A QUICK CHANGE

Finding a new job in baseball is usually hard. Unless, you have a proven track record of success.

The Red Sox’ stunning announcement that Dave Dombrowski was hired as new President of baseball operations  is still sinking in for many, but further changes figure to be on the way in Boston, MLBTR summarizes.

Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Press spoke to Dombrowski and tweets that the new Boston president believes he will hire a GM to work underneath him. Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports reports that former Braves GM Frank Wren, who worked with Dombrowski in the Marlins and Expos front offices in the 1980s and 1990s, is a leading candidate for the position.

Wren’s more traditional background of scouting would seemingly align well with Dombrowski’s strengths, as opposed to a more analytical GM like Ben Cherington, who passed on the opportunity to remain on board as the Red Sox’ GM following the addition of Dombrowski. There’s been speculation about Jerry Dipoto, who is working with the Sox on a temporary basis at the moment, but he, too, has a more analytical slant and wasn’t hired by Dombrowski.

When the Braves hired John Hart  as president of baseball operations, he fired Wren.  Currently,  the Braves have elected to deploy a president but no GM, as they currently do not have one in place.

The 57-year-old Wren’s front office experience dates back to the mid-1980s, and he’s worked with the Orioles in addition to the previously mentioned Expos, Marlins and Braves.

Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe reports  that he finds it difficult to imagine any team owned by John Henry would completely abandon analytics, noting that there will have to be a balance in place. One can imagine that even in the event of a more traditional hire in the GM department, Dombrowski may bring in some new analysts or, at the very least, make an effort to retain some of Cherington’s more analytically inclined lieutenants. Of course, many that previously worked underneath Cherington may elect to seek employment elsewhere as well.

The whole concept of a president of baseball operations is new. Many teams have started to divide functions: club business is separated from daily baseball activities. This sets up the possibility of two distinct feudal power bases. The president of baseball operations sits on a committee with the president of business operations and the owner to discuss general policies and goals. 

This does add layers of bureaucracy and executives. The "business" of baseball is running a team and winning (i.e. having good fan attendance). The general manager used to control all aspects of the club: from ticket sales, advertising, sponsorships, to hiring staff, reviewing scouting reports, drafting and trading for players. Now, in the age of analytics and specialization, the GM's duties have been pared back. 

In some situations, the president of baseball operations is a figure head title to move an ineffective GM upstairs to allow a better manager run a team. It is a way to keep a knowledgeable asset from taking his consultancy skills and team knowledge to other clubs. But in Dombrowski's case, the Red Sox are hiring a fully knowledgeable general manager with a great track record.

Some people were surprised that the Tigers let Dombrowski go, but his contract was not going to be renewed by ownership. The Tigers spent like a big market team in order to get its elderly owner a World Series title. But despite the spending and talent, the Tigers have never reached that goal. And that one goal fell squarely on Dombrowski's head. 

The Red Sox have had a tailspinning bad season. Dombrowski has experience in tearing down and rebuilding franchises, which is something the Red Sox need to do in order to get competitive in the strong AL East. Boston's quick hire of Dombrowski makes great sense.

HAVE A CIGAR

Depending on who discusses the situation, Cuban baseball ranks between Double A and Triple A level on the international stage. Because of the political sanctions between the U.S. and Cuba, baseball has rarely mixed between the countries. That tide is shifting under the current U.S. administration. Before, players had to defect in order to sign a deal. That may be shifting to normalized pacts. More MLB teams are looking to connect with Cuban prospects.

The Red Sox dove in big time. The Sox went over their international spending limit (which means a penalty and restrictions on signings next year) by signing Cuban infielder Yoan Moncada to a  $30 million contract.  Boston can't sign an international player to a bonus of more than $300,000 until July 2 of 2017, but they have Moncada, who is considered talented enough that he would be the first pick in the 2015 MLB Draft were he eligible, since is considdered as a Top 15 prospect by baseball scribes.

The current trend is clearly to seek out South-of-the-Border talent in Cuba, the Caribbean and Latin America. With additional interest in these youth baseball areas, the cost of signing prospects is going up (which is why MLB put in signing restrictions).

A SURPRISE MOVE

The Cubs went against conventional wisdom and signed the best free agent on the market. The Cubs clearly overpaid for Jon Lester, and made a move prior to the team is ready to win the division. Lester takes the role of Jeff Samardzija, the opening day starter (and possibly the pitcher with the least run support).

By many reports, the Red Sox botched their dealings with Lester. First, the team insulted him last year with a weak $70 million/3 year extension offer. Second, the team traded Lester to Oakland, but told the press that the team wanted Lester back. You don't trade away somebody you really want. Third, the Red Sox final offer was $20 million short of the Cubs (also meaning that the Cubs overpaid the market for Lester).

The Giants GM said he was not given a chance to give his best or final offer. This means that Lester preferred to not be on the West Coast (he lives in Atlanta). But in the end, respect equals money and the Cubs flashed the most green. This sudden spending spree may be a public relations reaction to what the White Sox had accomplished in the off-season: adding players like Samardzija, LaRouche, Robertson, Duke. It would be hard to sell tickets if the White Sox are charging to the top of the AL Central.

The $15 million vesting option for Year 7 of the deal should be no problem if the Cubs in 2020 get their golden Cub channel television deal (like the Dodgers). But since the Cubs still don't even have a local TV in place, the dramatic change in cable and entertainment distribution and the Dodgers disaster of unable to sell their channel to distributors, the Cubs are banking on money the team may never get.

Lester will receive six years and $155 million, Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports reports.  The contract will make Lester one of baseball’s richest pitchers, with an average annual value of $25.8 million, that ranks just ahead of Detroit Tiger Justin Verlander's  $25.7 million/year but behind only Clayton Kershaw's  $30.7 million.

Despite what Cubs management says, the team is still not close to winning a pennant.

Lester will lead a staff of starters that breaks down as follows:
1. LHP Lester
2. RHP Hammel
3. RHP Arrieta
4. RHP Hendrick
5. LHP Wada

The two pitchers immediately out of the rotation are Travis Wood and Edwin Jackson. Jackson has a bad contract, but there has been some reported interest in other teams, like Atlanta, who would swap bad deals. A Brave deal Jackson for B.J. Upton has the potential to upgrade LF over a Coghlan/Ruggiano platoon if Upton's two year funk can be corrected. Wood's 2014 slide is of some concern, which is why Wada was re-signed for 2015.

Lester pitched for Boston and Oakland last year, compiling a 16-11 record, 2.46 ERA, 1.102 WHIP and 4.6 WAR. In his 9 seasons, Lester is 116-67, 3.58 ERA, 32.6 WAR.

From a valuation standpoint, Lester's current WAR equates to $23 million/ year. If one projects out Lester, who will be 31, over the 6 seasons with a 10 percent decline in effectiveness, it is expected that he will contribute another 21.52 WAR, which would put the contract value of the deal at $107.6 million. Therefore, the Cubs paid a 44 percent premium over the expected value of Lester in the next 6 years.

In order for the Lester deal to work out, the Cubs need to score more runs. A lot more runs. This will push the team to promote Kris Bryant earlier than expected, which should appease the fans.

WHO IS GONNA WIN?

In a financial duel for star pitcher Jon Lester, who is going to win?

The Cubs. The Cardinals. The Braves. The Red Sox.

Fans "think" the Cubs have money to burn on star free agents. But nothing has materialized in the last few years. The powder is not dry; it has blown away.

The Cardinals have an interesting budget twist. With Kyle Lohse only making $500,000 on his last front loaded deal, the Cardinals have his "market value" of $10 million as a starter available plus Shelby Miller's potential arb value (another $6 million or so), so St. Louis has free cap space of $16 million to start the bidding for Lester.

The Braves have a new front office after GM Wren's firing, so there may be some incentive to make a big opening splash. The Braves have had a recent history of injured starters. The Cubs sending back Vizcaino for a nominal second baseman may be some insurance. With Medlin and Beachy coming off Tommy John surgeries, the rotation seems it needs a huge shot in the arm.

The Red Sox can be aggressive and they have the best history with Lester. He always said he would be open to returning to Boston. If so, then the trade was a great one for the Red Sox, who acquired Cespedes from Oakland.

It comes down to which team is ready, willing and able to handle a "bad" big money contract (because 70 percent turn out bad)?

I suspect the tale of the tape will be Red Sox, Cardinals, Braves then Cubs running last in a three horse race.

TEAMS IN PLAY

This off-season, there have been a few clear signals from teams on the verge of being highly competitive.

The Angels and Phillies have strongly indicated that they will be sitting out this free agent market. They do not want to add to existing high payrolls. In fact, they would like to shed some high cost talent. The Phillies are willing to trade anyone on their roster, including Cole Hammels, for the right deal (at least three top prospects). The Dodgers also seem to want to pare back their excess outfield talent under new team President Friedman.

The Mariners, Red Sox, Yankees and Rangers appear poised to make a run at bolstering their teams. The Rangers have a protected top draft pick so they could have their cake and it eat it to by signing a top free agent (who refused a qualifying offer). Likewise, the Tigers will get at least one supplemental first round pick for losing a quality free agent to another team (Max Scherzer). The Yankees have been playing possum this off-season, which means that they will make a run at the top guys. The Red Sox always seem to be circling for an acquisition.

The national media is convinced the Cubs will make a splash, but I don't think so. The Cubs are still filling the kiddy pool with water.

The Mariners have been spending money in recent years, but have not come to critical mass. The rumor is that the team will go after Hanley Ramirez and Victor Martinez, two older players, which means that 2015 projects to an "all in" season for Seattle. Detroit is in a similar position: so close, yet so far away from that desperate championship. If the Tigers lose Martinez and Scherzer, then they will have to replace a DH and SP of like quality (David Price may be part of that answer).

If one looks for a dark horse team to fly under the radar and pick up a "name" this off-season, it could be the Cardinals. With SP Kyle Lohse being paid only $500,000 at the end of a front loaded contract, the Redbirds actually have his "real value" plus another SP budget slot to pay a top tier FA $20 million plus.

ANOTHER ARM

Mark Gonzales of the Tribune reports:

The Chicago Cubs are close to acquiring left-hander Felix Doubront from the Boston Red Sox, according to a scouting source.

Doubront, 26, is 2-4 with a 6.07 ERA in 17 games (10 starts) and has allowed 10 home runs in 59 1/3 innings. But the Cubs apparently believe Doubront has plenty of upside as they saw when they acquired Jake Arrieta from the Baltimore Orioles last July. It is hard to catch lightning in bottle, especially for a second time, but that seems to be the Cubs Plan A.

Doubront won't be arbitration eligible until 2015. He has a lifetime record of 26-22 with a 4.82 ERA. He struck out 167 batters in 161 innings but allowed 24 home runs in 2011. He will earn $586,000 this season.

The Cubs, under the leadership of President Theo Epstein, have acquired former Red Sox pitchers Michael Bowden and Daniel Bard in past seasons. Both pitchers played for the Red Sox when Epstein was the general manager. Both turned out to be terrible with the Cubs.

What the Cubs should be asking the Red Sox is about Jon Lester, but Lester is heading to megamillions free agency. And the Red Sox are double digits out of first place in the AL East so there is little reason to trade Lester if they want to re-sign him in the off season.

Cubs infielders Emilio Bonifacio and Luis Valbuena are the most likely nominal in-return trade items still on the block. Both infielders can be useful utility players for a contending team.

REALLY?

The Miami Marlins had their panties all in a bunch because the Red Sox failed to field a respectable team for an exhibition game.  The Marlins, who only had 62 wins last season, were upset that the Red Sox line up had no players with any major league experience. No one on the 25 man roster. A "B" squad. A AAA/AA team of journeymen looking to try to land a job.

It is ironic that the Marlins fielded such a team last year - - - during the real season.

Why the outrage?

Because the Marlins were charging "premium" ticket prices for their fans to see the champions.

And the Marlins cited alleged rules that each team must have four major league players play during spring training games.

Which is odd, considering the Cubs fielded a split squad game recently that featured all their touted prospects (and no one complained).

Who ever heard of charging premium prices for exhibition games?
Who cares what players play during a spring training contest which does not count for anything?

Miami is a franchise in disarray. The team took the city for a ride in funding a new stadium. The team traded away all its high priced talent. The team is very bad as a result. And the real outrage is the team trying to squeeze more money from its fan base during spring training.

RADIO THEO

Theo Epstein was on WEEI-Boston's baseball show. In a long interview, he made certain points on how the current CBA has changed how he operates a franchise.  His opinion is that the new CBA severely restricts what made him successful in the past.
 
“I think the biggest challenge is just the changes with the CBA, you can’t really choose how much you want to emphasize the draft anymore. In Boston, we decided that it was going to be fundamental to our approach, that in order to win a World Series,  we needed to develop homegrown players, in order to develop homegrown players, we wanted to shift as many of our resources as we could to the draft,” said Epstein. “So we let free agents walk after the ’04 World Series.  We let Pedro Martinez, Derek Lowe and Orlando Cabrera walk, and we used those picks to sign the [Jacoby] Ellsburys and [Clay] Buchholzes of the world. We made the trade for Victor Martinez knowing, yeah, you’re going to get a year and a half of production from him and help us get to the postseason and then we’re going to let him walk. I think we got Henry Owens and Matt Barnes for Victor. That was just a fundamental part of the approach. It was a strategy and it was really important to how we built the organization.

“And now,” Epstein continued, “you can’t really develop a strategy around draft picks. Sure, you might have someone that in a given year you can make a qualifying offer to, in the case of the Red Sox and Yankees maybe a couple, multiple players you can make qualifying offers to and get picks that way, but you only get one pick. You don’t get two anymore. The scope of players who receive compensation is much more limited and most mid-market teams and below will very rarely if ever have compensatory picks for free agents leaving now. That’s just something that you can’t factor in. And you can’t overpay players in later rounds anymore unless you really go for a bargain in your first-round pick. That’s just really changed the game. You can still quote-unquote dominate the draft, make an impact in the draft, the way we tried to, but it’s on a much smaller scale. I think the days of getting Barnes, [Blake] Swihart, Owens, [Jackie] Bradley with your first four picks in 2011, those days are probably gone. You just have to make due with one or two picks like that in a given year instead of going for the whole bounty.”

Epstein complains about the new set of rules he has with the Cubs. He "won" in Boston by doing the following: overspending on first round talent with signability issues by paying them first round money in later rounds; letting free agents walk in order to get two high compensation draft picks; unlimited spending on free agent market (with no real luxury cap restrictions). He can no longer steam roll the system by spending a ton of money to acquire talent.

But in the major leagues, a player needs to adapt and make adjustments in order to succeed. The same is true with management, who must change their strategy in order to do their jobs effectively. Epstein seems to be brooding about the "good old days."

But those good old days included the same tools that have been around baseball for a long time: drafting quality players, making valuable trades and signing good free agents. Epstein is only looking at 1 of the 3 tools when working with the Cubs. He thinks the small number of quality free agents is skewing the free agent market and butting up to the penalty of the luxury tax.

Epstein said, “I think it’s actually probably in practical terms an even bigger contract [than $175 million] because when you factor in the impact of the CBT tax that the Yankees will have to pay going forward now, if indeed Tanaka was the player to push them over this year and therefore the higher rate in subsequent years. I can’t say I’m surprised. To answer your question, it reflects the dynamic that there are many, many teams with lots and lots of dollars to spend and very few places to spend them, very few players who represent sound investments for the dollars. I think anytime in this market that you find a player who will be in his prime years or pre-prime years or close to his prime years and has been healthy and has recognized tools and has a track record, in this case not even a track record in the major leagues, but a track record that points to that player is going to draw significant interest, probably more than expected, just because the supply/demand dynamic dictates it."

But the free agent market has always been players chasing the biggest pay day. That has not changed. The value of the contracts continue to rise because MLB's gross revenues continue to rise due to new TV deals. The Yankees have found a way to budget in any luxury tax in order to stay competitive in the AL East. Teams like the Yankees in the Tanaka sweepstakes use a risk-reward test to determine if a $100 million plus contract is warranted. Likewise, the Mariners overpaid for Robinson Cano because Seattle needed to in order to revive its fan base. But to sit out the free agent market because second tier players are now commanding higher prices is a ridiculous excuse for a baseball team. Every team has the same issues. By not being involved in the process, the Cubs will regress to become less competitive.

“There are lots of teams demanding talented, prime-age players, and supply is really a trickle. Fewer and fewer players of that ilk are reaching free agency. It’s pretty rare that you find a player — maybe one player a year like that through the posting system, maybe one through Cuban free agency with a player who qualifies outside the international spending pool, and that’s about it. You’re going to see these prices that cause people to shake heads. You still have to justify it. The guy still has to fit with your long-term plans. But because of the TV deals, the teams that have them have a lot of money and not a lot of attractive players to spend the money on.”

Again, teams are extending their own players into their prime years to avoid free agency market values. That seems to be common sense, if your homegrown player is a first tier caliber player. You cannot complain the mid-level free agent market is weak because teams are making sensible decisions with their own players. Epstein did the same thing by extending before arbitration eligibility Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo. But these  two "core" players have not met their projected expectations since signing those deals. 

So despite their own internal struggles, the Cubs went out last year and overspent on international players to the tune of a overspending penalty and severe restrictions on signing bonuses this year. The Cubs gambled and rolled the dice on a class international players, and costing them a year in the international market as a result. And the Epstein-Cubs track record on international players has not been too good: Cuban pitcher Concepcion is AWOL and power hitter Jorge Soler is quickly moving DOWN the Cub top prospect lists. 

MLBTR reported that the Yankees, fresh off a massive free agent spending spree, will be looking to replenish a bleak farm system by preparing to "spend wildly" on the international free agent market this summer. It is said that New York was planning to incur penalties by spending $12MM to $15MM on the approaching 2014-15 international signing period. The new signing season, which kicks off (as always) on July 2, is believed by many to offer a particularly strong crop of talent.

The Yankees are allotted just over $2MM to spend on international free agents this summer, but the ESPN/NewYork reports that the club may spend a staggering $18MM in bonuses as they look to restock their minor league ranks with high-upside talent. Such an expenditure would come with the harshest of penalties laid out in the newest CBA; the Yankees would pay a 100 percent tax on their overage and would not be allowed to sign a player for more than $250,000 in the following international signing period. While those measures are undoubtedly harsh, they haven't stopped the Cubs and Rangers from spending more than $8 million each on international free agents during the current signing period.

The Cubs will incur the signing penalty for this year's "strong crop of talent." That means the Cubs have taken themselves out of the international class this time around. That plan seems to be counterintuitive considering logic says that you should look for the best talent (improvement) every year. 


Epstein's whole Cub strategy now is to overload the Cubs minor league system with prospects. Any trades he makes are really to add more prospects to the system. It is a simple math equation: if only 6 percent of your prospects make it in the majors, the more prospects one has, the more should make it. But there still are key variables such as scouting, development, training and injury that come into play. The Cub fan base has heard it all before about great prospects in the system: Patterson, Pie, Hill, Kelton, Scott - - - were all going to be great players. They are turned into busts.

“I think the Red Sox are just really well positioned because Ben (Cherington) has done a phenomenal job with the clubhouse mix and the talent that he’s brought in," Epstein said. " It’s probably the deepest system in baseball on the way with plenty of impact talent. They should be good for a long, long time. I think of the 50 players on the World Series rosters, I think there were something like 35 or 38 homegrown players on the Cardinals and the Red Sox. Those two franchises are going to continue to excel. That’s really our model with the Cubs. We’re starting from the bottom of the well but we’re digging our way up. That’s where we want to be. We want to have a team with young players — pre-prime and prime age players, mainly homegrown, not that we won’t use players in trades and bring in talent from the outside, not that we won’t complement them with free agent signings from time to time, but we want to get to a point where we feel great about the roster, great about our farm system, great about our salary structure, great about the five- and 10-year outlook, and then you can have offseasons like the Cardinals and Red Sox have had where you just operate from a position of strength and pick and choose what you want to do because you have depth and redundancy at a lot of positions. The players you reference are going to be a big part of making that a reality for the Red Sox. They have great scouts and great leadership so they should continue that dynamic for a long time.”
 
The problem with this approach to be homegrown heavy is that both the Cardinals and the Red Sox got to the mountain top not by solely relying on the draft. Both teams signed free agents and spent big money to keep their own free agents. Once they had a competitive core roster, the teams could scout and sign for need. Further, the Cardinals created a system where management was not afraid to promote talent to the next level, including the major leagues. The accelerated curve is like a lightning bolt throughout the minors - - - it makes players work harder so they are not left behind with just their draft day press clippings. This creates competition at the major league level - - - which in turn puts a better product on the field.

But Epstein and Cubs are not creating a competitive approach at any level. The major league team has been terrible and their is little chance of change in 2014. There is no level of competition at any position because the talent level is meandering around a 1.0 WAR. The Cubs are not putting quality talent at the major league level in order not to "block" their rising prospects from a major league roster spot. And if these prized prospects fail, there is a huge sink hole on the major league level.

Further, it seems Epstein has taken the view that it will take 10 years for the Cubs to come to the level of the Red Sox or Cardinals. That means 7 more off-seasons like the current one. It means a decade of losing in order to secure high draft spots to allegedly sign better quality prospects.

The last thing about the Epstein interview that may teeth-grind some fans is Theo's continued high praise for his former club. 

“First of all, it was a lot of fun to watch it. I’m in contact with a lot of guys from the baseball ops department and cheering them on,” said Epstein. “It was a magical run. It was probably fun even for non-Red Sox fans to watch that team build momentum through the season, go on the run they went on in the postseason. The chemistry they had was incredible. But it was probably particularly fun for me, being this familiar with a lot of players’ backgrounds, a lot of guys have come up through the system, it was just a magical run and really fun to watch.

“I follow [the Sox prospects] really closely, probably with equal parts admiration, pride and jealousy. I am really proud of what we built. As far as GMs go, I think I was pretty hands-on as far as building our scouting department, went out and saw the players. It was just a great decade,” said Epstein. “I’m proud of those players, and that last draft, there was enough that went wrong in 2011. I think in time, it would be a wonderful thing for everybody if, maybe we’ll reach that day when people think of 2011, they think of that draft class, my last draft with the Red Sox. That would be nice, because it would mean great things for the Red Sox and it would mean those players went on to have great careers that would maybe wipe some of the memory of September 2011 away for everybody and for myself, as if that hasn’t happened enough already with a lot of those same players helping to win a championship in ’13. It was a great decade in the draft there, and that was a great last draft. Those players are performing really well and we see them up at the top of prospect rankings. I definitely root for them. I covet them here with the Cubs at times. But I wish them well," he said.

One could read a hint that Epstein feels he has been exiled to a backwater baseball farmstead. He would rather sit back on the laurels of the Boston organization than champion his rebuild plans for the Cubs. And that may be more disheartening than waiting for the prospects to arrive at the major league level.

THEO'S OFF SEASON BEGINS

BOSTON DISCONNECTION

It seems like a distant memory, but when the Cubs hired Theo Epstein from Boston, there was a convoluted trade that the teams had to execute as part of the agreement. One point which has raised its ugly head this week has been the fact that the Red Sox have not given the Cubs permission to talk to Boston coach Torey Lovullo for the open manager position.

The Red Sox believe that the agreement clearly states that the Cubs are not allowed to hire ANY Boston employee for 3 years. This means that Epstein cannot hire away a Red Sox coach for the Cubs.

Now either Epstein forgot about this clause, or he was trying to pull a fast one on Boston. But considering how badly and bitter the Bobby Valentine team implosion was (which solidified the meanness of Boston management against ex-employees) it is not a surprise that the Red Sox are not going to help Theo out of his current jam.

And it is a big jam.  Jam all over the place.

It is now almost universally accepted that the Cubs managerial "plan" was to hire Girardi away from the Yankees. The media quoted sources that it was all but a "done deal."  But during the last month Joe was under contract with the Yankees, the Steinbrenners came up with a good deal for Girardi to stay. When Girardi was out of the picture, the Cubs had to scramble for a Plan B.

The tepid response to the first wave of candidate interviews led to scoffs when reports had the Cubs thinking or doing a second interview with A.J. Hinch, which some other organizations find to the be "worst" person to manage a major league team. Then the local media started a build a bandwagon for Brad Ausmus for manager, but he quickly signed with the Tigers.

That led Epstein to scramble for a Plan C.  Once the World Series was over, and thus the excuse in the time delay from firing Dale Sveum to present, the Cubs could claim that they were always targeting their number one guy, Lovullo. But recall, two years ago the front office claimed they found their guy in Sveum through their mutual Boston connection.

Boston management stated after the series that they expected the entire coaching staff of John Farrell to return next season. In today's Boston Globe, this was affirmed in the story that Pawtucket Red Sox manager Gary DiSarcina has been hired by the Los Angeles Angels as their third base coach. The article states that DiSarcina might have stayed in the Red Sox organization had a position opened up on the major league staff. But general manager Ben Cherington said Monday he expected all of the coaches to return. Bench coach  Lovullo was seen as a candidate to manage, but Cherington said no teams sought permission to interview him  but the speculation is that he blocked the Cubs by the agreement with former Red Sox GM Theo Epstein not to hire Red Sox employees for a period of three years.

This leads the Cubs to find a Plan D. It is interesting to note that besides Ausmus, none of the other new managerial hires were on the Cub radar: Lloyd McClendon in Seattle, Bryan Price in Cincinnati or Matt Williams in Washington. Why was that?

As stated before, at this point it really does not matter who the Cubs hire as manager because the team will continue its rough transition for at least the next two to three seasons. But this whole managerial process does not invoke confidence in the front office and its "plans."

MYTHS AND LEGENDS

In the after glow of the Red Sox third championship in 10 years, there are some pundits in Chicago who pose the question of how much of the current success can still be traced to Cub President Theo Epstein. For the Theo-heads, he is the mythical savior who is going to turn the Cubs around just as he did for the Red Sox.

But the problem with that thinking is that is it based on myth and spin.

The architect who lifted the Curse was Epstein's former boss, Dan Duquette.

Duquette became the GM of his hometown Red Sox in 1998. Duquette, not Epstein, built a baseball operations department which has allowed the Red Sox to be the only team in MLB to set attendance and revenue records every year since 1998.

The Red Sox went 656-574 in the eight seasons under Duquette, winning the AL East once and finishing 2nd behind the Yankees five other seasons. The Red Sox won the AL East pennant in 1995 before bowing to the Indians in the ALDS. The Red Sox were wild-cards in 1998 and 1999, only to lose to the Indians in the ALDS and the Yankees in the ALCS.

Under Duquette, the Red Sox made exceptional strides in improving their dismal history of poor race relations as an organization in the hiring of both coaching and administrative personnel with minority candidates. The minor league facilities and coaching availability were upgraded at every level during his tenure.  This sounds like the plan the Cubs for their Arizona facilities.

But Duquette had a good eye for talent. Under this tenure, he drafted Nomar Garciaparra, David Eckstein, Adam Everett, Hanley Ramirez and Freddy Sanchez. He also made several major acquisitions that would ultimately play a part in the Red Sox 2004 World Championship, including acquiring knuckleballer Tim Wakefield, Pedro Martinez, Derek Lowe, Jason Varitek, Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon.  Duquette built up his minor league system with talent that he traded over 35 players from the farm system to acquire major league talent and to put a competitive team on the field.

Duquette was let go by the Red Sox in 2002 when the team was sold to new ownership.

The current Red Sox championship team has little connection to Epstein. New GM Ben Cherington inherited a lot of big money, bad contracts from Epstein's management era. The Red Sox imploded in 2012. ESPN.com stated that  Cherington deserves to be in the conversation for a series of transactions that helped propel the Red Sox from a 69-93 civic disaster to a team that got to the World Series.

Cherington revamped the team by several bold moves.  He traded for manager John Farrell to replace Bobby Valentine. He then sent an All-Star roster of Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett to the Dodgers to get rid of a massive amount of payroll. The new payroll flexibility that allowed Cherington to acquire Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, Koji Uehara, Jonny Gomes, Ryan Dempster, Stephen Drew, Mike Carp, Jake Peavy and David Ross.

A more realistic view of Epstein's Boston tenure is like the thin filling between two layers of cake. He is not the perfect wunderkind that the media parroted from the PR releases. One of the keys that pundits still point to with affection is that they like that Epstein is always trying to find a loophole in the rules, an edge, "game the system," to get talent. Except the glaring problem with that notion is that why would a competent front office need to "game" the system if they knew how to acquire talent by traditional means in the first place? It seems to be an attempt to cover up weaknesses by telling the world that the front office is smarter than the rest of baseball (a familiar quote from owner Tom Ricketts).

BIG MONEY TEAMS

The four finalists in Baseball's post season have one thing in common: high payrolls.

Even the mid market Cardinals spent at the end $125 million in payroll, which is a top 10 spending team. The Dodgers spent their new billion dollar cable deal to try to buy the Series, but money cannot get you everything (see, the Tigers the past few years).

But in the postseason, the payroll numbers tilt toward where the real money is spent: on starting pitching. Pitching can dominate the post season as teams begin to play tight.

This is the time where reputations are enhanced for starters like Verlander, Lester, Kershaw, Wainwright or Sanchez. This is why these guys command $100 million plus contracts.  They are truly definitions of "aces."

It has been true since the start of the game that a great starting pitcher can sell game day tickets at any ball park.  It is probably the allure that the best pitcher in the game is throwing that day; and that as a fan you could see something special like a strikeout record, a no-hitter or a perfect game.

The network is probably hoping for a Dodger=Red Sox finale to get the biggest TV markets on board for the Series. Likewise, a Detroit-St. Louis match up would leave both coasts outside the main event which the network would find unappealing to the causal fan.

Baseball is a profitable industry which can support those lofty ace pitcher contracts.

But the market between the big money teams and the bottom feeders is growing. The Astros entire payroll was less than $55 million, a number that would only pay half of a stud ace's contract. Or, in perspective, pay for less than 2.5 ace starters in the rotation.

There is always the question that looms over the sport: how long can the television money increase when viewership continues to splinter among cable, internet and mobile distractions? The era of the team-centric local cable channel may be the thing of the past as the pioneering Yankees began to divest from their golden goose, the YES Network. 

Which puts more emphasis on team owners unwilling to spend $125 million per season on talent to play the "small market card:" try to find diamonds in the pile of prospects who you can have under contract for 5 years at reasonable contract terms. Tampa Bay has been successful at this type of program, trading away quality starters like James Shield and Matt Garza (and position players like Carl Crawford and BJ Upton) before their price tags would skyrocket. If the Tampa Bay model was so easy, every team would do it and have payrolls under $75 million. (The Rays payroll ended at $87.8 million this season)

ROTATING THE COMPOST HEAP

It is simple to see why the Cubs front office does some things, but at times they are living in the past.

For example, the Cubs today  claimed pitcher Daniel Bard off waivers from the Red Sox. 
Bard, a 28-year-old right-handed reliever and onetime starter, was a dominant late-inning pitcher between 2009 and 2011, but he has had issues with his confidence and injuries that have derailed his career in Boston. He pitched in only two games for the Red Sox this season before he was sent to the minors. So he is another perfect pick up for the Cubs.  The move reunites Bard with Theo Epstein, the general manager who drafted him. Epstein is now the Cubs president of baseball operations.
To make room for Bard on the 40-man roster, the Cubs designated outfielder Cole Gillespie for assignment.  Also on Wednesday, the Cubs selected the contract of reliever Chang-Yong Lim from Triple-A Iowa, while designating pitcher Michael Bowden for assignment, his second release of the season.

Selected by the Red Sox in the first round (28th overall) of the 2006 draft, Bard struggled in three minor league stops this season, pitching just 16 games which he compiled an ERA of 6.46 and 2.674 WHIP.

Bard set club records for holds in both 2010 and 2011 with 32 and 34, respectively. His 79 career holds from 2009-11 were the most ever by a major leaguer in his first 192 appearances.
The Red Sox made Bard a starter before the 2012 season, but he struggled, going 4-6 with a 5.30 ERA in 10 starts.

This pick up makes little sense, considering in 34 major league games, Bowden was 1-3, 4.30 ERA and 1.248 WHIP.

WHITE SOX BEGIN TO DEAL

If the White Sox had any consistent offense this season, word is that they would be competing with Detroit for the AL Central crown. But the offense has been bad. And the defense has followed suit. The front office still likes their young pitching corps, but need to bulk up fast on position players.

Jake Peavy told the team he wanted out. He wants to play for a contender. He wants a championship. That moxy, that macho attitude is what most teams want in their players. Whether Peavy can stay healthy for a pennant run is another question. But Peavy was going to be traded no matter what direction the White Sox are going to take this off season.

This three team trade was made purely based upon looming fear. Boston worried that its starting rotation may not come back from current ills. Detroit was worried about losing their starting shortstop to a PED suspension.

The Red Sox receive Peavy and Tiger minor league pitcher Brayan Villarreal. Peavy, 32, has a 4.28 ERA with 8.6 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 and a 35.2 percent ground-ball rate in 80 innings for the White Sox this season, though he's spent some time on the disabled list with a broken rib. He is signed through next season. Villarreal allowed 10 runs in just 4 1/3 innings for the Tigers this season prior to the trade. In  2012, he posted a 2.63 ERA for Detroit. He averaged 97.1 mph on his fastball.  In 34 1/3 innings at Triple-A Toledo this year, the 26-year-old Villarreal owns a 3.15 ERA with 10.7 K/9 but a troubling 6.8 BB/9 rate.

The Tigers receive infield insurance with the Red Sox shortstop Jose Iglesias. Iglesias has out performed his minor league offensive numbers when promoted to the major league roster.  He played third base, but most believe he is the most talented shortstop in the organization.  Iglesias, 23, is hitting .330/.377/.410 in 231 plate appearances for the Red Sox this season.  Baseball America ranked him ninth among Red Sox prospects prior to the season based largely on his glove, calling him perhaps "the best defensive shortstop prospect in the game."

The White Sox prize in the deal is Detroit outfield prospect Avisail Garcia, who scouts compare to a more athletic Magglio Ordonez, a 6' 215 lb outfielder who had a productive career. Baseball America ranked the 22-year-old Garcia as the No. 74 prospect in baseball prior to the season, and he's delivered on that hype at Triple-A Toledo, hitting .382/.414/.549 with five home runs in 152 plate appearances. Garcia has the tools to be an everyday right fielder with average defense and All-Star upside, BA wrote in its preseason scouting report.

Garcia appears to be a "major league ready" prospect. In AAA this season, he hit .374, 5 HR, 23 RBI, .410 OBP. In 30 games with the Tigers, he hit .241, 2 HR, 10 RBI, .273 OBP.   He appears to be the replacement player if the White Sox can trade Alex Rios.

The White Sox also received three low minor players, two pitchers who may develop into relievers, and a shortstop with a good glove and no bat.

No one can blame the White Sox from trading away salary of high priced veterans for replacement field players. The White Sox farm system has no depth at fielding positions. Garcia becomes the White Sox number one prospect because he is the closest thing to a contributor this season.

With the league ready to announce 9 more player suspensions by the end of the week, there may be more insurance trades today by teams worried about the ramifications of player suspensions on the pennant chases.