SPRING BATTLES

I mostly agree with Yahoo Sports! assessment of the key spring training roster battles for the Cubs.

The fifth starter competition is probably going to be the one the media will focus upon. Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Jason Hammel and Kyle Hendricks are the starting four.  The 5th spot will be won by either Edwin Jackson (ouch), Travis Wood (who turned down 4 year deal before 2014 season, ouch again), Ysuyoshi Wada (who has hamstring issues), Felix Doubront, Jacob Turner or long shot Eric Jokisch.

Third base is a caretaker position for the first two months. It is doubtful Kris Bryant makes the opening day roster. So, terrible Mike Olt (the former #1 prospect in the Rangers organization), Tommy LaStella or Arismendy Alcantara are the probable contenders for the spot. Perhaps, the Cubs attempt to move Javey Baez to third, and train Bryant to learn left field.

Some think Alcantara can be Maddon's new version of Ben Zobrist, a multi-positional player who could hit. Alcantara appears to have a back up CF role (with Fowler's acquisition), and back up roles at second and short stop.

Second base is Baez's spot to lose. If he can't cut down on his strike out ratio, he may start the season in Iowa. That would probably leave a platoon of LaStella and Alcantara at second, and gives third to Olt by default.

POSITIONING

The Cubs have publicly said that Welington Castillo still has a place with the team.

The idea of having three catchers on the major league roster is really out of the box. With most teams adding an additional pitcher, the position bench is pretty thin. Thus, the rise of the super-sub like Emilio Bonifacio.

There are two reasons for management's comments. First, it is a way to bump up the "trade value" of a surplus catcher. There are many teams that are in need of a quality, major league ready backstop. But no one has pulled the major trigger since the Blue Jays signed Russell Martin. The Jays former starter, Dioner Navarro, had an excellent season so he wants to be traded to start somewhere else. But the Jays have not tried to move him.

Navarro is a better hitting catcher than Miguel Montero, David Ross or Castillo. Navarro's return to the Cubs would have made more sense than replacing Castillo with Montero and Ross, who will be the personal catcher for Jon Lester. Personally, the Montero trade was not an upgrade over Castillo.

Second, there may be some concern that either Montero, who has had two declining years in a row for Arizona, or Ross, who is at the final stage of his career, may break down leaving the Cubs with a huge catching hole since Kyle Schwarber is years away from a big league promotion.

In his major league career, Castillo has only played one game at first base. Otherwise, he has been a catcher. So Castillo does not have the experience to become a super-sub and play multiple positions such as 1B, LF or 3B, the latter two to be manned by journeymen.

The Cubs could try to deal from catching strength if some clubs have spring training injuries to their starting catchers, but at this point that is a long shot. 

It is not to say that Castillo would not be better than the 25th man off the bench. But it is a luxury to carry three catchers. It means that a team has a set 8 man daily lineup, which clearly the Cubs do not have.

BAD THOUGHTS

Lou Piniella would start thinking about his line up card on the drive to the ball park. Piniella would constantly change his line up, batting positions, in theory, to find an edge against his opponent.

But does that really work? We have been told that professional athletes are creatures of habit. They are geared to a set routine, whether it is rest, training, diet, work-outs, practice and in game situations.

So the idea that a baseball manager is going into a new season wanting to mix things up is troublesome.

It is fine to mix things up in intersquad or split square spring training games.  Even though the Cubs have enough position players already in camp to fill a roster for an intrasquad game, manager Joe Maddon hasn't seen enough of them to be able to fill out a lineup card yet.

But Joe Maddon has eluded to the fact that some Cubs fans may be puzzled by some of his lineup combinations.

"You know I'm not going to be afraid to try different things," Maddon told Cubs.com.

That could include batting a pitcher eighth,  depending on who he's facing that day.

Maddon said his bench coach Dave Martinez and himself will meet and write down one week's worth of lineups prior to the start of Cactus League games on March 5th. He said he  likes to think about what he's going to do while riding his bike. "There will be a lot of haphazard stuff," Maddon said.

Maybe Maddon will get the daily tinkering out of his system before the real season starts.

A set lineup brings a level of stability and maturity to a roster. If players know where they will be batting on a daily basis, they can prepare for their role and potential situations better. A lead off hitter needs to bring the mind set of getting on base (hit or walk), while a #2 hitter has to have the skills and mind set to move a runner along (walk or sacrifice or hit and run). Bouncing players up and down the line up card does not allow a hitter to adjust to those requirements.

HAVE A CIGAR

Depending on who discusses the situation, Cuban baseball ranks between Double A and Triple A level on the international stage. Because of the political sanctions between the U.S. and Cuba, baseball has rarely mixed between the countries. That tide is shifting under the current U.S. administration. Before, players had to defect in order to sign a deal. That may be shifting to normalized pacts. More MLB teams are looking to connect with Cuban prospects.

The Red Sox dove in big time. The Sox went over their international spending limit (which means a penalty and restrictions on signings next year) by signing Cuban infielder Yoan Moncada to a  $30 million contract.  Boston can't sign an international player to a bonus of more than $300,000 until July 2 of 2017, but they have Moncada, who is considered talented enough that he would be the first pick in the 2015 MLB Draft were he eligible, since is considdered as a Top 15 prospect by baseball scribes.

The current trend is clearly to seek out South-of-the-Border talent in Cuba, the Caribbean and Latin America. With additional interest in these youth baseball areas, the cost of signing prospects is going up (which is why MLB put in signing restrictions).

ADDRESSING NEEDS

By most accounts, the White Sox addressed their glaring needs this off-season.

The Cubs started in October with a long list of issues.

Left Field.
Center field.
Third base.
Second base.
Starting pitching.
Bench depth.

Left field has not been solved since Coghlan, Lake and Denofia are in a platoon competition. All track as journeymen bench players.

Center field was changed by the acquisition of Fowler, but how he adapts to the short, windy confines of Wrigley Field is going to be telling. This puts Alcantara into a super substitute role as CF and middle infielder.

Third base will be manned some day by Bryant, but with the trade of Valbuena for Fowler, Olt is the statue that must cover the position for several weeks to months. Olt, by all past measures, is a bust.

Second base is probably going to go to Baez, but his offense and strike out ratio could place him back in the minors. LaStella is another journeyman back up who may edge his way into a starting role, even over Alcanatara.

Starting pitching was problematic with Edwin Jackson and Travis Woods' off years. Lester signing puts a top of the rotation arm in position, but in reality he is only replacing Samardzija.  The return of Hammel is also a 50-50 proposition since he had a good-bad season in 2014.

Bench depth continues to be replacing players with replacement value or less counterparts.

The buzz continues to be about the prospects, but the roster itself has not upgraded much of the glaring needs we have identified this off-season.

PAST PROSPECTS

Via MLBTR, Baseball America has an interesting analysis of team with multiple top level prospects.

It’s well known that the Cubs have an outstanding core of hitting prospects of Bryant, Soler, Castro, Almora, Rizzo,  but it’s it is a crap shoot on how far that core will actually take them.

Baseball America went back to look at various touted prospect lists.   Some of those groups (those of the 2006 Diamondbacks, 2011 Royals and 2004 Brewers) didn’t produce obviously exceptional results in wins and losses, although at least the Royals and Brewers would probably argue that they’re happy with how the intervening years unfolded. The other two great prospect groups (the 2007 Rays and 1992 Braves) helped produce great results by any standard, even if the Braves’ subsequent run was fueled largely by pitching that was already in the big leagues at the time.

It is also interesting to read how well the teams did in turning over their prospects for additional assets (a comparison of WARs).

But the statistical take away from this story is that of the five top prospect heavy teams, only two had success, and one of the those (the Braves) had the boost of stellar pitching in order to succeed.  In essence, a team with prized prospects only has a 40 percent chance to be a core on a winning franchise, but in reality, a twenty percent chance with real help in other areas like pitching.

NEW RULES BAD IDEAS

In order to "speed up" play, MLB is instituting a host of new rules.

(Reuters) - Major League Baseball instituted several rule changes on Friday designed to step up the pace of play amid growing concerns that its games are growing too long.

Among the changes is that batters must keep at least one foot in the batter's box unless one of several exceptions occurs, like time is called or the pitcher throws a wild pitch. Timers will also be added to better track time and guide players, the league said.

MLB began to look for ways to address the issue in September amid fears that fans of the national pastime will become bored with the escalating length of games and flee to other quicker-paced sports.

The average MLB game took 3 hours 2 minutes last season, nearly 30 minutes more than it did in 1981.

"These changes represent a step forward in our efforts to streamline the pace of play," Commissioner Rob Manfred said in a statement. "The most fundamental starting point for improving the pace of the average game involves getting into and out of breaks seamlessly."

The new timers will measure non-game action and the time between innings and pitching changes, counting down from 2:25 for locally televised games and from 2:45 for nationally televised games. Batters will be "encouraged" to get into the batter’s box with 20 seconds left on the timer, MLB said.

Pitchers can throw as many warm-up pitches as they want prior to 30 seconds remaining on the clock but will forfeit any of their traditional eight warm-up pitches that they cannot complete by that deadline.

Braves President John Schuerholz, the chairman of MLB's Pace of Game and Instant Replay committees, said he wants to take "measured steps" to quicken baseball's pace.

"It is not an objective of ours to achieve a dramatic time reduction right away," he said. "It is more important to develop a culture of better habits and a structure with more exact timings for non-game action."

All of the new rules will be enforced through a warning and fine system, MLB said, with discipline resulting for flagrant violators.

MLB also announced several changes to its use of the instant replay system, including allowing managers to challenge a call from the dugout rather than by approaching an umpire.

"We're confident that today's announcements will have a positive impact on the pace of the game without jeopardizing the integrity of the competition," said MLB Players Association Executive Director Tony Clark.

The rule changes will be effective in spring training, the regular season and the postseason.

These "new" rules will only slow down pace of play because coaches, players and umpires will have to learn them on the fly. Warm up pitch and batter clocks are only going to put an added element of chaos. If the last out is a catcher, he needs time to get his equipment back on. What if he takes "too long?" 

Besides, the current rule book gives the home plate umpire the ability to manage the pace of the game. He does not have to give a batter time. He can warn a pitcher for stalling between pitches, including calling an automatic ball. 

The institution of replay challenges has added several minutes to games. To quicken the pace of replay, allowing a coach to throw a towel or gesture at the umpires seems silly. And besides, the manager has to explain his protest in person to the crew chief, who may be at second base. 

The only way to really speed up games is to coach and train pitchers to throw faster. Mark Buerhle is the poster child for a quick and efficient game.