October 4, 2013

NEW MANAGER

Speculation is running rampant on the next Cub manager.

However, this is another misdirection. Dale Sveum was fired not for wins or losses, but apparently because he allowed Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo to regress badly.

The other misdirection is that the quick boot to Sveum was a clear signal to Yankee skipper Joe Girardi that there is a nice landing spot in Chicago. Come on down!  But why would Joe leave the Yanks who were competitive despite injuries, A-Rod scandal and retirements? The Yanks will spend more than the Cubs next season. Or the Nationals are a club on the cusp of a playoff run. In other words, there are better alternatives to the Cubs for Girardi.

Baseball has always been accused of being an "old boy network."  Managers and GMs get recycled from club to club. Over time, there is a list of usual suspects for job openings.

In the case of Epstein-Hoyer, a few odd names have surfaced for the next manager because of their connection with the two boy geniuses.

First, Brad Ausmus, the former Astro catcher. He has no real MLB managerial experience. He once babysat the Israeli national team in the WBC. Ausmus has been on the executive staff in San Diego for several years, and he has worked with Hoyer.

Second, A. J. Hinch, a former Diamondback manager. Hinch's tenure in Arizona was a disaster. He got fired along with the GM, Josh Byrnes, who had worked with Epstein in Boston. So that is the possible connection to the Cubs job.

Third, Demarco Hale's name surfaced again. Hale was a bench coach under Terry Francona in Boston, so Epstein is familiar with him. Hale did interview with the Cubs, but was not hired or given a job in the organization. It would seem very remote that Hale is a candidate this time.

None of these network connections seem to instill confidence in Cub nation.

The fans and media want Girardi. But I don't believe Epstein wants to give up control of the baseball organization to a media savvy and strong willed leader like Girardi. 

There is one aspect that Epstein and Hoyer did not address during the briefings on the new managerial search. The Cubs have invested heavily in Latin America for prospects. The future and success of Epstein's grand plan is developing Latin-centric talent pool. It would make sense to hire a manager who a) has cultural ties and speaks the language of these prospects; b) is respected by the prospects for his ML career; and c) has success in developing talent at the major league level.

The top on that list is probably the last person on Earth the Cubs would hire: Ozzie Guillen. Guillen is regarded as a legend in Latin America. He is also a good teacher of young talent. He is also an old school disciplinarian which is sometimes needed to get players to focus on their jobs. He also has the quality that the Cubs want: major league experience, and a championship winning track record.

Other candidates would include Sandy Alomar, Jr., who interviewed for the White Sox position two years ago. He is a well respected player and club house leader. As a former catcher, he would have some experience handling a major league pitching staff. Another possible candidate would be Tony Pena, who has major league managerial experience with the Royals. A long shot possibility would be Davey Lopes, who came through the vaulted Dodgers system that developed talent consistently.

But besides Guillen, none of these candidates have the "wow" factor. The Cubs business side needs to stem the attendance drop and fan disinterest. Hiring of Ozzie would be a huge marketing bonanza, but also a PR bazooka nightmare down the road. And it is not certain that Guillen would even want the Cubs job. Who in their right mind would?

With columnists now saying it is Girardi or Bust, I think the Epstein cadre will continue with their attitude that "we know better than you" and pick a new manager who will be loyal and easily controllable by management.