If there is a dark cloud hovering over the Cubs, it may be tied to its loyal fan base.
The Cubs have sent out a notice requiring season ticket holders to put down an immediate deposit for next year's tickets. It signals that the team needs to accelerate its off-season cash flow after another losing season.
A losing season that showed a remarkable number of no-shows at games. It is estimated that out of the 2.6 million tickets sold for Wrigley games, 820,000 people did not show up to watch. Even if the no shows only spend an extra $10 during the game, that is $8.2 million in lost revenue (which was almost 10 percent of the opening day team payroll.)
But the more worrisome trend for the bean counters is that if those 820,000 no shows turn into non-ticket buyers. With the Cubs estimating that each patron is worth $25-$50 per head, that could turn into a $30.75 million revenue shortfall in 2014 if the Cubs paid attendance falls to 1.8 million.
The last time the Cubs fell to 1.8 million attendance was the last year of the Jim Frey era, in 1986, when the team finished 70-90 after two good previous seasons.
The idea of losing baseball income at the same time as spending hundreds of millions of dollars on construction projects is a huge lose-lose for the Cubs. No wonder the Cubs have not pushed forward with any major reconstruction projects this off-season.
The Cubs have been historically bad. Under Ricketts ownership, the team has amassed a record 375 losses in four years. Under Epstein's leadership, the Cubs have lost a record 197 games in two seasons. The closest previous mark was 193 losses in 1965-1966 and 1961-1962.
Supporters of The Plan continue to state that the Cubs had to lose games in order to rebuild their organization from the ground up. Except, that is a partial fallacy. The rebuilding of the minor league system by signing young prospects has little immediate impact on the major league roster. Yes, the team may lump all the costs and expenses of player development and MLB payrolls, but those aspects are separate and distinct. By lumping a new farm system with the current team, the Cubs have managed to divert attention to the major league roster towards the glowing reports of future stars.
But fans pay big money to watch a major league team play at Wrigley Field. And in the past four seasons, that has been a difficult proposition.
Also, the part of the fan base that continued to go to Wrigley Field just to go to Wrigley is also in decline. Older sentimental fans are reaching retirement age, on fixed incomes, and may not be able to afford season ticket packages. This has been reflected with the loss of large group sales during the summer from out-of-state tour groups. The problem is that this fan base will be lost because their Wrigley Field is going to dramatically change with the addition of a jumbotron and more signage.
Further, season ticket holders must now ponder whether the new front office actually can pull off their grand plan. Their major league talent evaluations and veteran signings have not been very good (as the team record shows). And it is a hard Castor oil pitch to tell existing season ticket holders that they should keep their seats for several more years of bad Cubs teams in order to have a front row perch when the prospects arrive to turn things around. It is no longer "Wait Till Next Year," but "Wait Several More Years." A premium ticket price to watch a AAA team is no bargain in any major league city.
The Cubs are coming to a narrow cross roads. The historic losing is turning off loyal fans. The Ricketts business model of full houses no matter what the team record has been shown to be a mistake. The transformation of Wrigley and the surrounding properties is no guarantee of success on the diamond. We may be watching a major market franchise fall through the mid-market team level to struggle as a small market team for years to come.
