October 23, 2013

THE FORMULA

The St. Louis Cardinals have advanced to the World Series. Again. Nothing distresses long time Cubs fans than the success of the rival Cardinals.

The Cards are a hybrid franchise: a small market team that has a big market fan base. They are what some called a "middle market" team as a result.

A Card fan breaks down the consistency of the organization as follows:

Strong farm.
Low-priced homegrown talent.

Smart trades.

Smart free agent signings.

Smart non-signings (cough, Pujols, cough)

Good managers.

3 million+ a year through the gates. 


A good farm system is only as strong as the players in it. For that to happen, the front office must have an excellent scouting staff to find the diamonds in the rough. The organization must have a clear, set and consistent training method for all their minor league players. The Dodgers had a successful track record of teaching fundamentals and how they expected their players to play in the big leagues. This means that the minor league system must have coaching staffs that a) buy into to team training program; b) have the teaching skills to convey those principles; and c) the experience to make adjustments to help players succeed at each level of progress.

The major league minimum salary is about $500,000. The average major league player salary in 2013 was $3.65 million. Basic math shows that if you can plug in two or three home grown players on the 25 man roster (bench, bullpen or otherwise), you immediately save $9.3 million in payroll (which can be used to sign free agents).

Smart trades mean that you get what you expected in return. Trading veterans for prospects is more risky than trading prospects for a known commodity like a veteran. Trades are most important to fill immediate roster needs.

Free agent signings have two components: the age of the player (his expected performance life over his contract) and the deal (salary times years). Many organizations got caught in the trap of signing desirable free agents for extended years beyond their useful contributions. They "overpaid" in the back end in order to sign the player to the here and now play off run. Short sighted FA signings usually cost a team in the long run because it eats up the budget and causes inflexibility in future roster moves.

Many teams believe it is important to re-sign your club's own free agents. The fans have a connection with their star players, so some teams listen to the marketing department and re-sign players who may be over the hill but our popular with the fan base. Again, this is another potential trap that will cost a team in the long run.

There is a debate whether a baseball manager really affects the win loss totals. In some statistical analysis and general discussion, the consensus appears to be that a good manager can win a team 1 or 2 games per year; a great manager could win a team 3 or 4 games per year; but a bad manager can lose a team 4 games or more. This proposition presumes that the manager is using his roster to the best of his player's abilities. That the manager is putting his players in the best position to succeed. Generations ago, teams kept their managers for decades. There was some consistency that the field boss would not change. Players came to expect what their manager wanted from them. Today, managers have short tenures because of their win-loss records have a major impact on attendance or fan interest (the bread and butter finances of a team).

A consistent product on the field, with good fundamentals will bring fans to the ball park to support their team. Every fan buys a ticket to the game with the expectation that his team is going to win that day. Even if his team loses, the fan will be happy if his team was competitive, that the players hustled on the field, and that they did not lose on some bonehead mistakes. Fan loyalty is a hard thing to break unless the organization really screws up the way the team plays on the field.