Baseball free agency is getting very interesting.
Free agency was meant to give players freedom to find
a new club, balance family lifestyle with professional duties
and to make more money.
But for the two superstars, this FA season is turning sour.
They interviewed with very few teams.
Current reports state that Phillies, Yankees and White Sox
interviewed with Machado, while the Cubs, Dodgers, Phillies
and Cardinals spoke to Harper after he rejected the Nats offer.
Both players don't want to play for the Phils (who seem to
be offering the most money). Both players prefer to play
for the Yankees, but the Yanks have no interest in Harper.
It just leaves Machado with the Yankees, who have signaled
they are not going to spend heavily this off season on players
and the White Sox, who have never spent heavily on free agency.
It just leaves Harper with the Phils as both the Dodgers and
Cubs claim not to have payroll room to sign him, and the Cardinals
don't seem to be the black knight willing to cough up $400 million
on one player.
One speculates that Harper may have to throttle back his 10 year
megacontract demand and take a 5 year deal with an opt out after
3 season (so he can get to FA again before 30). That kind of deal
could open up one or two more teams to bottom feed if the number
is not $40 million/year but more like $25 to $30 million/year.
In other words, Harper may have to settle for a J.D. Martinez
type of deal just before spring training begins.
And considering the current roller coaster stock market where
rich men's savings are are getting whipsawed with losses, team
owners are extra wary of signing a huge contract with problematic players.
This appears not to be collusion but basic economics. Teams are not growing
local revenue streams. A big market team signing a Machado or Harper will not
add any significant numbers to attendance revenue. Cord cutting has hurt
cable operators who see the sports license fees as a major reason households
do not want to pay increasing monthly cable bills.
Organizations are now more focused on the draft, international free agents
and the trade market to structure their minor and major league systems. Draft
choices are more important than major free agent signings. Major free agency
signings cripple payroll flexibility, can hit the team with luxury taxes and
potentially block rising homegrown stars in their minor league system.
Machado and Harper played so well during their career to earn a Tier 1 free agent
status. But by playing so well, they trapped themselves into a very limited market.
Teams and smart players who sign early in free agency, tend to do better at managing
the organizational budgetary pressures. Teams would rather fix their bullpens with
one or two relievers than sign a big money free agent hitter (with subpar defensive
stats).
Also, teams have wised up and do not bid against themselves. At the winter meetings,
teams interested in free agents gave agents their best offer (like the Nationals did to Harper
at the end of the season.) It is no longer an auction where the agent controls the flow
of bids or pits teams against each other. Teams with strict ownership budget guidelines
do not have the time or resources to go with the flow in an active auction setting.
Machado and Harper have probably gotten the "best" offers from the various suitors.
And those offers may have been less than their own perceived market value.
So the agents are playing the sports media card, telling Philadelphia their client(s) don't
want to play there (in hopes the Phils will increase their offer) or to have secondary clubs
make a second raise in their final bid to snare a superstar.
It is a cat and mouse, risk reward type of game that many teams have an advantage. But there
are always some teams that pay stupid money on players who underperform, get hurt or
handcuff the organizational budgets for years. All the big market teams have their golden anchor contracts choking their books. It is harder for player agents to navigate around those ships
trapped in their own dead money harbors.
Showing posts with label Cardinals. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cardinals. Show all posts
December 27, 2018
December 8, 2017
JUST DO IT!
The news broke early this morning that should have the Cubs front office changing everything they planned for this off-season.
Yahoo Sports quotes a Miami-based host for SiriusXM who has been all over the Giancarlo Stanton story, reported that the reigning NL MVP will not approve a trade to either the Giants or the Cardinals. Stanton has a full no-trade clause in his 13-year, $325 million deal with the Marlins so he has all the leverage on where he will go. He is under contract control through the 2020 season.
Furthermore, the report says Stanton "would" accept a trade to four teams and they’re the four teams that were in the ALCS and NLCS: the Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs and Astros.
Clearly, Stanton wants to win NOW.
What the Cubs need to do is make a strong pitch for Stanton NOW.
Here is the argument for a blockbuster trade for Stanton I made on August 16, 2017:
1. He is young.
2. He is proven hitter.
3. He immediately makes any lackluster batting order better.
4. He is under long term control.
And his contract is such that if the market in 2020 is $30 million per year (Harper potential deal, now probably more than that figure), then he will opt out - - - and the team acquiring him by trade now is only out $77 million.
For the Marlins to take the PR hit to trade their star player, Miami will need to get a substantial return for Stanton: cheap controllable major league players and top prospects.
In the current situation, the Cubs may not have enough assets to acquire Stanton, who would be the perfect solution to the left field platoon situation.
The package the Cubs would have to offer to get Stanton:
1. Baez or Russell. A controllable middle infielder with defensive skills is a premium position. One would think Miami, catering to Latin market, would prefer Baez's versatility over Russell (including injury history).
2. Schwarber. Even though Theo-Jed adore their Baby Ruth wannabee, there would be no position left for Schwarber if Stanton is acquired (since Heyward's best position is Gold Glove RF). Miami could use Schwarber as a trade flip to an AL club for more prospects.
3. Almora. The Marlins need to market hometown players to their fans. Almora is young and talented to be a long term marketing piece.
4. Edwards. The Marlins would prefer to get a starter (like Hendricks) but the Cubs cannot spare one. A bullpen piece with some upside would off-set the weakness in Cub farm prospects since Edwards has a major league track record.
5. One of the Top 4 pitching prospects (De La Cruz, Albertos, Alzolany, or Lange) and/or International Bonus pool money.
If you look at this possible transaction from a long term Cub prospective, Stanton fills a need to provide offense, solidify the outfield and give protection to Bryant and Rizzo in the batting order.
It is also an affordable transaction.
The Cubs have $55 million in contracts coming off the books at the end of the year (net $46 million with Quintana's salary for 2018). Stanton's salary in 2018 is $25 million, leaving $21 million to sign a free agent starting pitcher.
As a footnote to the argument, the Cubs would have to either extend the opt out clause with Stanton or pay less in major league talent for a potential 2-year contract (maybe three players and a prospect). The Cubs spent $13 million/season on Chatwood to be the 4th starter. So the team is still under budget (but with several key roles to fill including the closer position).
But this is a one-in-a-generation type move. The three years Stanton has to his opt out is the prime years for the current Cubs core. It also fits into the time frame for the Cubs to attempt to launch their own Cubs channel. Stanton is a superstar who solves a major problem in the current lineup: a consistent hitter that other teams fear.
Yahoo Sports quotes a Miami-based host for SiriusXM who has been all over the Giancarlo Stanton story, reported that the reigning NL MVP will not approve a trade to either the Giants or the Cardinals. Stanton has a full no-trade clause in his 13-year, $325 million deal with the Marlins so he has all the leverage on where he will go. He is under contract control through the 2020 season.
Furthermore, the report says Stanton "would" accept a trade to four teams and they’re the four teams that were in the ALCS and NLCS: the Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs and Astros.
Clearly, Stanton wants to win NOW.
What the Cubs need to do is make a strong pitch for Stanton NOW.
Here is the argument for a blockbuster trade for Stanton I made on August 16, 2017:
1. He is young.
2. He is proven hitter.
3. He immediately makes any lackluster batting order better.
4. He is under long term control.
And his contract is such that if the market in 2020 is $30 million per year (Harper potential deal, now probably more than that figure), then he will opt out - - - and the team acquiring him by trade now is only out $77 million.
For the Marlins to take the PR hit to trade their star player, Miami will need to get a substantial return for Stanton: cheap controllable major league players and top prospects.
In the current situation, the Cubs may not have enough assets to acquire Stanton, who would be the perfect solution to the left field platoon situation.
The package the Cubs would have to offer to get Stanton:
1. Baez or Russell. A controllable middle infielder with defensive skills is a premium position. One would think Miami, catering to Latin market, would prefer Baez's versatility over Russell (including injury history).
2. Schwarber. Even though Theo-Jed adore their Baby Ruth wannabee, there would be no position left for Schwarber if Stanton is acquired (since Heyward's best position is Gold Glove RF). Miami could use Schwarber as a trade flip to an AL club for more prospects.
3. Almora. The Marlins need to market hometown players to their fans. Almora is young and talented to be a long term marketing piece.
4. Edwards. The Marlins would prefer to get a starter (like Hendricks) but the Cubs cannot spare one. A bullpen piece with some upside would off-set the weakness in Cub farm prospects since Edwards has a major league track record.
5. One of the Top 4 pitching prospects (De La Cruz, Albertos, Alzolany, or Lange) and/or International Bonus pool money.
If you look at this possible transaction from a long term Cub prospective, Stanton fills a need to provide offense, solidify the outfield and give protection to Bryant and Rizzo in the batting order.
It is also an affordable transaction.
The Cubs have $55 million in contracts coming off the books at the end of the year (net $46 million with Quintana's salary for 2018). Stanton's salary in 2018 is $25 million, leaving $21 million to sign a free agent starting pitcher.
As a footnote to the argument, the Cubs would have to either extend the opt out clause with Stanton or pay less in major league talent for a potential 2-year contract (maybe three players and a prospect). The Cubs spent $13 million/season on Chatwood to be the 4th starter. So the team is still under budget (but with several key roles to fill including the closer position).
But this is a one-in-a-generation type move. The three years Stanton has to his opt out is the prime years for the current Cubs core. It also fits into the time frame for the Cubs to attempt to launch their own Cubs channel. Stanton is a superstar who solves a major problem in the current lineup: a consistent hitter that other teams fear.
September 19, 2017
THE MATH
It is crunch time in the NL Central.
Today's standings:
Cubs 83-66
Brewers 80-70 3.5 GB
Cardinals 77-72 6 GB
The Cubs and Cards have 13 games to play; Brewers 12.
The Cubs have a 97.1 percent chance to make the playoffs. The Brewers have 14.8%. The Cardinals only 4.0%.
But what will it take to win the division?
The Brewers are currently on an 8-2 streak. At that pace to the end of the season, the Brewers would win 88 games. So really, the mark to take the crown is 88 wins.
The Cardinals are currently on a 5-5 streak. They would have to win 11 of their last 13 games to reach 88 wins. That is highly unlikely.
The Cubs would have to go 5-8 to reach 88 games.Considering the Cubs have been good in their last ten games (7-3), they should easily reach 88 wins. The Cubs current winning percentage projects 90 wins which means the Brewers would have to win every remaining game to tie the Cubs.
The Cubs appear to be on the cusp of repeating their NL Central championship. The only potential spoiler remains the pesky Brewers.
Today's standings:
Cubs 83-66
Brewers 80-70 3.5 GB
Cardinals 77-72 6 GB
The Cubs and Cards have 13 games to play; Brewers 12.
The Cubs have a 97.1 percent chance to make the playoffs. The Brewers have 14.8%. The Cardinals only 4.0%.
But what will it take to win the division?
The Brewers are currently on an 8-2 streak. At that pace to the end of the season, the Brewers would win 88 games. So really, the mark to take the crown is 88 wins.
The Cardinals are currently on a 5-5 streak. They would have to win 11 of their last 13 games to reach 88 wins. That is highly unlikely.
The Cubs would have to go 5-8 to reach 88 games.Considering the Cubs have been good in their last ten games (7-3), they should easily reach 88 wins. The Cubs current winning percentage projects 90 wins which means the Brewers would have to win every remaining game to tie the Cubs.
The Cubs appear to be on the cusp of repeating their NL Central championship. The only potential spoiler remains the pesky Brewers.
August 24, 2017
5 & 7
Barring an epic collapse, the rule of thumb is that a team can realistically make up one game per week in the standings.
There are approximately 5 weeks left to go in the season.
The Brewers are 3.5 games behind the Cubs. The Cardinals are 4.5 games behind.
The NL Central rivals may be looking more toward a tightening wild card race than a division win.
But the Cubs still have 7 games left with each of the Brewers and Cardinals. That means that the Brewers and Cardinals are not out of the race even if they trail by 7 games before meeting the Cubs.
Another rule of thumb is that a team needs to take care of business in its own division. The only two teams left with an above .500 record are the Brewers and Cardinals. The Cubs still need to play well against division teams in order to avoid a bitter September surprise.
There are approximately 5 weeks left to go in the season.
The Brewers are 3.5 games behind the Cubs. The Cardinals are 4.5 games behind.
The NL Central rivals may be looking more toward a tightening wild card race than a division win.
But the Cubs still have 7 games left with each of the Brewers and Cardinals. That means that the Brewers and Cardinals are not out of the race even if they trail by 7 games before meeting the Cubs.
Another rule of thumb is that a team needs to take care of business in its own division. The only two teams left with an above .500 record are the Brewers and Cardinals. The Cubs still need to play well against division teams in order to avoid a bitter September surprise.
April 5, 2017
DEFENSE WINS GAMES
For those who doubt that defense wins games, last nights Cubs-Cardinals game should make them believers.
Albert Almora leaped over the center field wall to rob Matt Adams of a home run and Javier Baez made a difficult sliding stop on Kolten Wong's game-ending grounder, giving the Cubs to a 2-1 victory against the St. Louis Cardinals on Tuesday night.
Jake Arrieta was very good in his opener. He pitched 6 strong innings, striking out 6 and yielding only one unearned run (on a Baez error).
Heyward is a gold glove caliber right fielder. Last season he had 18 defensive runs saved when he played the outfield. That is an outstanding defensive metric.
But the kids are on pace to surpass his defensive milestones.
In just 41 games played in 2016, Almora had 3 defensive runs saved. For a full season, that would equate to around 11 defensive runs saved.
But the wizard of the glove has to be Baez. In part time work last season, Baez had an amazing 11 defensive runs saved when he played second base (in only 59 games)! He had 18 defensive runs saved in total.
So in 2016, just three Cubs amassed 39 runs saved by playing solid defense.The Cubs lead the National League with the fewest runs scored at 556. Based on this metric, he three Cubs bring a 7 percent decrease in an opponent scoring a run. In a close, one-run ball game, defense is the key to victory.
Like last night's contest. If Almora and Baez to not make those clutch plays, the Cardinals win 3-2.
From a purists' standpoint, it is really nice to see the leather being thrown around the field.
Albert Almora leaped over the center field wall to rob Matt Adams of a home run and Javier Baez made a difficult sliding stop on Kolten Wong's game-ending grounder, giving the Cubs to a 2-1 victory against the St. Louis Cardinals on Tuesday night.
Jake Arrieta was very good in his opener. He pitched 6 strong innings, striking out 6 and yielding only one unearned run (on a Baez error).
Heyward is a gold glove caliber right fielder. Last season he had 18 defensive runs saved when he played the outfield. That is an outstanding defensive metric.
But the kids are on pace to surpass his defensive milestones.
In just 41 games played in 2016, Almora had 3 defensive runs saved. For a full season, that would equate to around 11 defensive runs saved.
But the wizard of the glove has to be Baez. In part time work last season, Baez had an amazing 11 defensive runs saved when he played second base (in only 59 games)! He had 18 defensive runs saved in total.
So in 2016, just three Cubs amassed 39 runs saved by playing solid defense.The Cubs lead the National League with the fewest runs scored at 556. Based on this metric, he three Cubs bring a 7 percent decrease in an opponent scoring a run. In a close, one-run ball game, defense is the key to victory.
Like last night's contest. If Almora and Baez to not make those clutch plays, the Cardinals win 3-2.
From a purists' standpoint, it is really nice to see the leather being thrown around the field.
December 12, 2016
OVERPAY?
Did the Cardinals overpay to sign Dexter Fowler?
St. Louis signed the Cubs World Series centerfielder for $82.5 million/5 year contract.
Fowler, 30, was a valuable lead off hitter for the Cubs. And once the team figured out that he was playing too shallow in center, Fowler's defensive metrics improved dramatically. He went from a 2.2 WAR to a 4.2 WAR in 2016.
But one could temper his improvement as being Wrigley Field bias. Fowler's career WAR is only 18.1 over 9 seasons. 35.6 percent of his career WAR is attributed to just the past two seasons.
Many fans do not care what teams spend on players because it is not their money. But that is a narrow view. Teams have tighter baseball budgets. League revenue may be great but it is suspect with the sudden decline in cable television ratings and advertising shifting to other platforms. If your team overpays for a player, it cuts down the available budget to sign other key players to make a contending team. Also, it forces the team to find more revenue, usually from the fans. Example, the Cubs raising ticket prices for 2017 by an average of 19.1 percent.
So how did the Cardinals value Fowler?
First, as a subtraction from the divisional winner, Cubs. Just as the Cubs took away Jason Heyward and John Lackey from the Cardinal roster, the Cards pull a piece from the Cubs roster to make it weaker (on paper).
Second, the Cardinals need a steady, experienced lead off hitter. Traditional lead off hitters (high OBP, speed) are harder to find. Fowler is not quite traditional, but makes up for it with more power than an normal lead off hitter.
Third, $82.5 million deal equals approximately 14.0 WAR. Over the life of the contract, Fowler would have to average 2.8 WAR per season to hit the $82.5 million value. In his eight full seasons, he has only hit that mark twice in his career or 25% of the time. If you take his last 8 seasons of WAR (18.4) you have 2.3 WAR/season. The premium appears to be 0.5 WAR/season or about $14.75 million or almost an entire season of potential dead money.
In baseball free agent contracts, some players are willing to discount an annual salary to get more guaranteed years. This is especially true in late career two-three year deals. But in Fowler's case, this is his last peak contract. He did not discount his current performance for a future guarantee. With Adam Eaton traded to the Nationals, there were few proven center fielders left on the market. Fowler leveraged the shortage to his advantage.
Fourth, Fowler does bring a level of intangibles to a team. He was well liked in the Cub locker room. He has a friendly smile and is a fan favorite. In St. Louis, some media writers opine that his presence will help solidify the community. But just by signing Fowler is not going to turn that 17.5 game deficit from the Cubs 2016 mark to zero. But Fowler is an upgrade in CF from their existing player roster so one cannot clearly say that the Cardinals overpaid for Fowler.
St. Louis signed the Cubs World Series centerfielder for $82.5 million/5 year contract.
Fowler, 30, was a valuable lead off hitter for the Cubs. And once the team figured out that he was playing too shallow in center, Fowler's defensive metrics improved dramatically. He went from a 2.2 WAR to a 4.2 WAR in 2016.
But one could temper his improvement as being Wrigley Field bias. Fowler's career WAR is only 18.1 over 9 seasons. 35.6 percent of his career WAR is attributed to just the past two seasons.
Many fans do not care what teams spend on players because it is not their money. But that is a narrow view. Teams have tighter baseball budgets. League revenue may be great but it is suspect with the sudden decline in cable television ratings and advertising shifting to other platforms. If your team overpays for a player, it cuts down the available budget to sign other key players to make a contending team. Also, it forces the team to find more revenue, usually from the fans. Example, the Cubs raising ticket prices for 2017 by an average of 19.1 percent.
So how did the Cardinals value Fowler?
First, as a subtraction from the divisional winner, Cubs. Just as the Cubs took away Jason Heyward and John Lackey from the Cardinal roster, the Cards pull a piece from the Cubs roster to make it weaker (on paper).
Second, the Cardinals need a steady, experienced lead off hitter. Traditional lead off hitters (high OBP, speed) are harder to find. Fowler is not quite traditional, but makes up for it with more power than an normal lead off hitter.
Third, $82.5 million deal equals approximately 14.0 WAR. Over the life of the contract, Fowler would have to average 2.8 WAR per season to hit the $82.5 million value. In his eight full seasons, he has only hit that mark twice in his career or 25% of the time. If you take his last 8 seasons of WAR (18.4) you have 2.3 WAR/season. The premium appears to be 0.5 WAR/season or about $14.75 million or almost an entire season of potential dead money.
In baseball free agent contracts, some players are willing to discount an annual salary to get more guaranteed years. This is especially true in late career two-three year deals. But in Fowler's case, this is his last peak contract. He did not discount his current performance for a future guarantee. With Adam Eaton traded to the Nationals, there were few proven center fielders left on the market. Fowler leveraged the shortage to his advantage.
Fourth, Fowler does bring a level of intangibles to a team. He was well liked in the Cub locker room. He has a friendly smile and is a fan favorite. In St. Louis, some media writers opine that his presence will help solidify the community. But just by signing Fowler is not going to turn that 17.5 game deficit from the Cubs 2016 mark to zero. But Fowler is an upgrade in CF from their existing player roster so one cannot clearly say that the Cardinals overpaid for Fowler.
April 20, 2016
THE GOOD, THE BAD AND THE UGLY
The early season has had its share of good, bad and ugly moments.
The good: the Cubs pitching staff leads the NL in ERA and WHIP. Quality starts have not taxed the bullpen. The Cubs are the first team this year to 11 wins. The Cubs have the largest lead, 4 games, in any division after 14 games. The Cubs 11-3 start is the best since 1970.
More good: it appears the Cubs have overcome any mental block on playing the rival Cardinals. Last night's victory was the 5th in a row over the Redbirds. As such, the Cubs now know that they can beat any of the teams in their division.
The bad: the Cubs core continue to struggle at the plate. Players like Heyward, Rizzo and Zobrist have had oh-for-20 stretches. But the only saving grace has been patience st the plate and getting walks. They have had solid starting pitching to win close, low scoring games.
More bad: Jorge Soler crashed into the left field wall to give slow footed Cardinal catcher Molina a triple. Even the Cubs announcers had to admit that the ball "could" have been caught. The Cubs defense has been spotty at times. If not for pitcher Jason Hammel's two-run single, the Soler defensive lapse would have cost the Cubs the game.
The ugly: Kyle Schwarber's knee and leg injury was so severe that he had the Dallas Cowboys team physician do his reconstructive surgery. It is rare for a baseball player to have a "football" type injury. The Cubs statement on the surgery said the team was "hopeful" that Schwarber would be back in 2017 for spring training. But that is not a guarantee. As beat reporters indicate, the under-reported aspect of Schwarber's injury was the severe high ankle sprain. Schwarber could not get his shoe on because of the massive swelling. The surgery had to be delayed until all the swelling went down.
More ugly: there is no guarantee that Schwarber can come back to his pre-injury levels. Ligament tears can be painful and debilitating. They can even permanently change your lifestyle.
The cruciate ligaments -- ACL and PCL -- cannot be repaired. Once they are completely torn or stretched beyond their limits, that's it. The only option is a reconstruction. In this procedure, tendons are taken from other parts of your leg or a cadaver to replace the torn ligament. Reconstructive surgery may not give complete stability to the knee. It is usually a long recovery process which may have some patients not being able to return to their pre-injury activities.
During the long season ahead, the Cubs may miss Schwarber's bat more than expected if the middle of the order has prolonged hitting slumps.
The good: the Cubs pitching staff leads the NL in ERA and WHIP. Quality starts have not taxed the bullpen. The Cubs are the first team this year to 11 wins. The Cubs have the largest lead, 4 games, in any division after 14 games. The Cubs 11-3 start is the best since 1970.
More good: it appears the Cubs have overcome any mental block on playing the rival Cardinals. Last night's victory was the 5th in a row over the Redbirds. As such, the Cubs now know that they can beat any of the teams in their division.
The bad: the Cubs core continue to struggle at the plate. Players like Heyward, Rizzo and Zobrist have had oh-for-20 stretches. But the only saving grace has been patience st the plate and getting walks. They have had solid starting pitching to win close, low scoring games.
More bad: Jorge Soler crashed into the left field wall to give slow footed Cardinal catcher Molina a triple. Even the Cubs announcers had to admit that the ball "could" have been caught. The Cubs defense has been spotty at times. If not for pitcher Jason Hammel's two-run single, the Soler defensive lapse would have cost the Cubs the game.
The ugly: Kyle Schwarber's knee and leg injury was so severe that he had the Dallas Cowboys team physician do his reconstructive surgery. It is rare for a baseball player to have a "football" type injury. The Cubs statement on the surgery said the team was "hopeful" that Schwarber would be back in 2017 for spring training. But that is not a guarantee. As beat reporters indicate, the under-reported aspect of Schwarber's injury was the severe high ankle sprain. Schwarber could not get his shoe on because of the massive swelling. The surgery had to be delayed until all the swelling went down.
More ugly: there is no guarantee that Schwarber can come back to his pre-injury levels. Ligament tears can be painful and debilitating. They can even permanently change your lifestyle.
The cruciate ligaments -- ACL and PCL -- cannot be repaired. Once they are completely torn or stretched beyond their limits, that's it. The only option is a reconstruction. In this procedure, tendons are taken from other parts of your leg or a cadaver to replace the torn ligament. Reconstructive surgery may not give complete stability to the knee. It is usually a long recovery process which may have some patients not being able to return to their pre-injury activities.
During the long season ahead, the Cubs may miss Schwarber's bat more than expected if the middle of the order has prolonged hitting slumps.
February 24, 2016
NL CENTRAL COMPARISON
Spring training begins for players to solidify their positions as major leaguers.
The NL Central's starters are pretty much locked in stone. It will be the bullpen and bench players that may have the most activity and evaluation to get to Opening Day rosters.
But fans will debate which team is best now.
One way is to compare each player position by position to rank which of the three is better. Trying to be as objective as possible, here is the breakdown:
Using the team's own current depth charts, which NL Central team is the best
by player to player position comparison? 3= best, 1 = worst
CUBS CARDINALS PIRATES
LF Schwarber 1 Holliday 2 Marte 3
CF Heyward 2 Grichuk 1 McCutheon 3
RF Soler 1 Piscotty 2 Polanco 3
3B Bryant 3 Carpenter 2 Kang 1
SS Russell 1 Peralta 3 Mercer 2
2B Zobrist 2 Wong 1 Harrison 3
1B Rizzo 3 Moss 2 Jaso 1
C Montero 1 Molina 2 Cervilli 3
SP Lester 1 Wainwright 2 Cole 3
SP Arrieta 3 Garcia 1 Liriano 2
SP Lackey 1 Wacha 2 Locke 3
SP Hendricks 2 Leake 3 Niese 1
SP Hammel 2 Martinez 3 Vogelsong 1
CL Rondon 1 Rosenthal 2 Melacom 3
24 28 32
Starting Rotation: Cubs 9, Cardinals 11, Pirates 10. Very close.
The Cubs infield is tops while the Pirates is the worst.
Columnists have speculated that the Cubs could win from 101 to 92 games this year. Most believe the Cardinals will not repeat their victory total from 2015 because of the loss of Heyward and Lackey.
The NL Central's starters are pretty much locked in stone. It will be the bullpen and bench players that may have the most activity and evaluation to get to Opening Day rosters.
But fans will debate which team is best now.
One way is to compare each player position by position to rank which of the three is better. Trying to be as objective as possible, here is the breakdown:
Using the team's own current depth charts, which NL Central team is the best
by player to player position comparison? 3= best, 1 = worst
CUBS CARDINALS PIRATES
LF Schwarber 1 Holliday 2 Marte 3
CF Heyward 2 Grichuk 1 McCutheon 3
RF Soler 1 Piscotty 2 Polanco 3
3B Bryant 3 Carpenter 2 Kang 1
SS Russell 1 Peralta 3 Mercer 2
2B Zobrist 2 Wong 1 Harrison 3
1B Rizzo 3 Moss 2 Jaso 1
C Montero 1 Molina 2 Cervilli 3
SP Lester 1 Wainwright 2 Cole 3
SP Arrieta 3 Garcia 1 Liriano 2
SP Lackey 1 Wacha 2 Locke 3
SP Hendricks 2 Leake 3 Niese 1
SP Hammel 2 Martinez 3 Vogelsong 1
CL Rondon 1 Rosenthal 2 Melacom 3
24 28 32
Starting Rotation: Cubs 9, Cardinals 11, Pirates 10. Very close.
The Cubs infield is tops while the Pirates is the worst.
Columnists have speculated that the Cubs could win from 101 to 92 games this year. Most believe the Cardinals will not repeat their victory total from 2015 because of the loss of Heyward and Lackey.
December 21, 2015
ST. LOUIS VILE
I
cannot recall such vile vitriol from a city and fan base after a player
leaves via free agency.
When the Cubs signed Jason Heyward, Cardinal fans went nuts on social media. The insults were harsh and stupid. The St. Louis media also jumped on this hate bandwagon, calling Heyward "disloyal," a "traitor," and a "Benedict Arnold." They could not believe Heyward turned down a "better" offer from the Cardinals to play for the hated Cubs.
Heyward only played for the Cardinals for one year! He did not come up through the St. Louis system; he was an Atlanta Brave for most of his career.
And if you break down his new deal, the Cubs actually are paying more than the Cardinals AAV deal. With the signing bonus and the op out clause, the Cubs are paying Heyward $26 million/season for the first three years.
Is this still crass bitterness that the Cubs defeated the Cardinals in the post season?
Or the impending fear and doom that the Cubs are now a championship caliber team?
But Heyward's explanation of his decision is noteworthy.
In his introductory press conference this week, Heyward explained that he was drawn to the Cubs in part because of the roster stability he expects them to have going forward.
“Knowing the core is young and those guys are going to be around for a while is very exciting,” Heyward said, according to ESPN. “I don’t want to take the highest dollar amount when my gut is telling me to go somewhere else. Being 26 years old and knowing that my contract would put me in any clubhouse for longer than most people there, you have to look at age, how fast the team is changing and how soon those changes will come about.”
When the Cubs signed Jason Heyward, Cardinal fans went nuts on social media. The insults were harsh and stupid. The St. Louis media also jumped on this hate bandwagon, calling Heyward "disloyal," a "traitor," and a "Benedict Arnold." They could not believe Heyward turned down a "better" offer from the Cardinals to play for the hated Cubs.
Heyward only played for the Cardinals for one year! He did not come up through the St. Louis system; he was an Atlanta Brave for most of his career.
And if you break down his new deal, the Cubs actually are paying more than the Cardinals AAV deal. With the signing bonus and the op out clause, the Cubs are paying Heyward $26 million/season for the first three years.
Is this still crass bitterness that the Cubs defeated the Cardinals in the post season?
Or the impending fear and doom that the Cubs are now a championship caliber team?
But Heyward's explanation of his decision is noteworthy.
In his introductory press conference this week, Heyward explained that he was drawn to the Cubs in part because of the roster stability he expects them to have going forward.
“Knowing the core is young and those guys are going to be around for a while is very exciting,” Heyward said, according to ESPN. “I don’t want to take the highest dollar amount when my gut is telling me to go somewhere else. Being 26 years old and knowing that my contract would put me in any clubhouse for longer than most people there, you have to look at age, how fast the team is changing and how soon those changes will come about.”
October 12, 2015
THE DUEL
If you thought the Jake Arrieta-Garrett Cole match up was going to be epic, think again.
In Pittsburgh, without his best stuff, Arrieta took the one game, Game 7 vibe, to a victory over the Pirates.
Today, on paper, is a better pitching duel. Arrieta (22-6, 1.77 ERA) vs. Michael Wacha (17-7, 3.38 ERA).
However, Wacha has been scuffing in September with a bloated ERA. The Cardinals began resting their starters once they clinched a playoff berth, but the rest has not helped them.
The Cardinals believed they "gifted" Game 2 to the Cubs so they may be a little bitter and more motivated tonight. However, the errors caused by the Cardinals were made because of the intense pressure applied by the Cubs hitters and runners. The Cubs have to continue to put pressure on the Cardinals defense.
Wrigley Field will be a madhouse tonight. Ticket prices are soaring; box seats are being asked in the secondary market for $8,300.00, standing room $150.00.
Since this is Columbus Day, a semi-bank holiday, the fans will be out to Wrigleyville drinking early and often. The crowd will be louder than St. Louis.
The forecast is for a breezy night - - - 14 mph winds blowing out to right field. How the right field scoreboard effects the wind will be on display tonight.
Maddon has a choice to make: Schwarber or Soler, both hot hitters. The solution would be to play both of them, then substitute defense later in the game. If Wacha is off, the Cubs need to score early and often. Otherwise, it could be nail biter.
The one thing that can be counted on is Arrieta. He has the stone faced determination of an assassin when he takes the mound. He expects to win. He expects to throw a complete game. He is a throwback to the 1960s-1970s pitchers like Bob Gibson and Fergie Jenkins. He is the gunslinger with a quicker draw than hitters.
Again, this is a game the Cubs really need to win. Game 4 is a Jason Hammel, bullpen game so anything can happen. But everyone is counting on Arrieta tonight to be Cy Young worthy.
It should be another great baseball game.
In Pittsburgh, without his best stuff, Arrieta took the one game, Game 7 vibe, to a victory over the Pirates.
Today, on paper, is a better pitching duel. Arrieta (22-6, 1.77 ERA) vs. Michael Wacha (17-7, 3.38 ERA).
However, Wacha has been scuffing in September with a bloated ERA. The Cardinals began resting their starters once they clinched a playoff berth, but the rest has not helped them.
The Cardinals believed they "gifted" Game 2 to the Cubs so they may be a little bitter and more motivated tonight. However, the errors caused by the Cardinals were made because of the intense pressure applied by the Cubs hitters and runners. The Cubs have to continue to put pressure on the Cardinals defense.
Wrigley Field will be a madhouse tonight. Ticket prices are soaring; box seats are being asked in the secondary market for $8,300.00, standing room $150.00.
Since this is Columbus Day, a semi-bank holiday, the fans will be out to Wrigleyville drinking early and often. The crowd will be louder than St. Louis.
The forecast is for a breezy night - - - 14 mph winds blowing out to right field. How the right field scoreboard effects the wind will be on display tonight.
Maddon has a choice to make: Schwarber or Soler, both hot hitters. The solution would be to play both of them, then substitute defense later in the game. If Wacha is off, the Cubs need to score early and often. Otherwise, it could be nail biter.
The one thing that can be counted on is Arrieta. He has the stone faced determination of an assassin when he takes the mound. He expects to win. He expects to throw a complete game. He is a throwback to the 1960s-1970s pitchers like Bob Gibson and Fergie Jenkins. He is the gunslinger with a quicker draw than hitters.
Again, this is a game the Cubs really need to win. Game 4 is a Jason Hammel, bullpen game so anything can happen. But everyone is counting on Arrieta tonight to be Cy Young worthy.
It should be another great baseball game.
October 11, 2015
THE BIG DEAL
The Cubs earned a split with St. Louis which puts Chicago with home field advantage in now a best of three contest.
The Cubs struggled with the strike zone and scoring runs in Game 1. So Maddon used old school techniques and bad Cardinal fielding to manufacture runs in a big five run inning.
Safety Squeezes are passe in the era of long balls and sabermetrics. But back to back drops put pressure on the defense who failed to execute. Austin Jackson said after the game any time you can put pressure on the other team, that is good.
Pitching and defense win championships. The Cubs may have given Maddon enough comfort in the bullpen of T. Wood, Cahill and Rondon to close out any game. By pulling Hendrick after 4.1 innings, Wood came in for a brilliant 2.2 IP to get to the new set up man, Cahill. He was pumped up by his 1,2,3 8th inning performance. Rondon, who tended to overthrow a few pitches, settled in and closed out the game.
If Maddon knows he has three relievers he can count on, he does not have to try to ride a struggling starting pitcher. He should have no problems with Arrieta in Game 3, but he is looking forward into Game 4.
The big deal is that if the bullpen can perform like in Game 2, the Cardinals starting pitching strength vanishes for the rest of the series.
The Cubs struggled with the strike zone and scoring runs in Game 1. So Maddon used old school techniques and bad Cardinal fielding to manufacture runs in a big five run inning.
Safety Squeezes are passe in the era of long balls and sabermetrics. But back to back drops put pressure on the defense who failed to execute. Austin Jackson said after the game any time you can put pressure on the other team, that is good.
Pitching and defense win championships. The Cubs may have given Maddon enough comfort in the bullpen of T. Wood, Cahill and Rondon to close out any game. By pulling Hendrick after 4.1 innings, Wood came in for a brilliant 2.2 IP to get to the new set up man, Cahill. He was pumped up by his 1,2,3 8th inning performance. Rondon, who tended to overthrow a few pitches, settled in and closed out the game.
If Maddon knows he has three relievers he can count on, he does not have to try to ride a struggling starting pitcher. He should have no problems with Arrieta in Game 3, but he is looking forward into Game 4.
The big deal is that if the bullpen can perform like in Game 2, the Cardinals starting pitching strength vanishes for the rest of the series.
October 9, 2015
STATEMENT GAME
Today's Cubs-Cardinals contest is a statement game for the Series.
It may not be a "must win" for the Cardinals, who have home field advantage, but it is a key for the Cubs.
The Cubs are on a 9 game win streak. The performance over a Game 7-elimination game against the Wild Card Pirates is still foremost in their minds. It is possible to have an endorphin rush let down.
The Cubs paid Jon Lester $155 million just for this moment: post season Number 1 starter. This Cardinal series falls squarely on his shoulders, since Jake Arrieta will only pitch one game (Game 3 on short rest).
Lester is 1-3 against the Cardinals this year. St. Louis is well aware of Lester's problems holding base runners. The Cardinals are expected to put pressure on Lester's fielding issues.
But Lester has performed well in the postseason for Boston. In two divisional series, his record is 2-1, 1.63 ERA. In two world series, his record is 3-0, 0.43 ERA. His overall postseason record is 6-4, 3.57 ERA, 1.071 WHIP, 2.5 K/BB ratio.
It is also a statement game for the fans. The Cubs-Cardinals rivalry has never included a postseason series. The historic nature of this season is on the mindset of everyone. Even late night host Stephen Colbert took out his Chicago time to banish the Goat on national TV. This series is going to be the focal point for national attention. With it, comes growing expectations and bandwagon pressure.
Is Lester up to this monumental challenge?
It may not be a "must win" for the Cardinals, who have home field advantage, but it is a key for the Cubs.
The Cubs are on a 9 game win streak. The performance over a Game 7-elimination game against the Wild Card Pirates is still foremost in their minds. It is possible to have an endorphin rush let down.
The Cubs paid Jon Lester $155 million just for this moment: post season Number 1 starter. This Cardinal series falls squarely on his shoulders, since Jake Arrieta will only pitch one game (Game 3 on short rest).
Lester is 1-3 against the Cardinals this year. St. Louis is well aware of Lester's problems holding base runners. The Cardinals are expected to put pressure on Lester's fielding issues.
But Lester has performed well in the postseason for Boston. In two divisional series, his record is 2-1, 1.63 ERA. In two world series, his record is 3-0, 0.43 ERA. His overall postseason record is 6-4, 3.57 ERA, 1.071 WHIP, 2.5 K/BB ratio.
It is also a statement game for the fans. The Cubs-Cardinals rivalry has never included a postseason series. The historic nature of this season is on the mindset of everyone. Even late night host Stephen Colbert took out his Chicago time to banish the Goat on national TV. This series is going to be the focal point for national attention. With it, comes growing expectations and bandwagon pressure.
Is Lester up to this monumental challenge?
October 8, 2015
GAME THOUGHTS
Here are my game thoughts from the Cubs victory over the Bucs:
1. Enough with the Tommy LaStella in the line-up. The idea that Bryant is a liability at third
was clearly erased last night. And LaStella's contact bat was silent last night.
2. When Arrieta takes the mound, he does not think he could win - - - he expects to win.
And his team thinks the same thing which is an extremely powerful mental edge, something
that the Blackhawks have had in their championship runs.
3. Arrieta did not even have his best command. He looked like he got tired and hit the wall
in the middle innings. I was questioning why Maddon did not take him out for Rondon in the 9th,
but I guess Arrieta/Maddon wanted to make a statement to the rest of the pitching staff
that old school "give me the ball at first pitch and let me end it" is still alive in the modern game. This reminds me of the White Sox starters during their 2005 World Series run.
4. The Schwarber home run may still be in orbit. He crushed it. With a 3-0 lead, with Arrieta on
the mound, the Pirate fans were silenced for most of the rest of the game. At that point, very few
thought the Cubs would lose the game.
5. Why do the Wild Card winners do so well in the post season? The Wild Card game is played
like a Game 7 so that pressure and experience must have some carry over into the next series.
6. Next up is the litmus test of how well Theo spent $155 million. Lester is supposed to be the
proven post-season ace. He has the champion bulldog determination to carry a team. In the
St. Louis series, he will pitch twice. He is the key to the series.
1. Enough with the Tommy LaStella in the line-up. The idea that Bryant is a liability at third
was clearly erased last night. And LaStella's contact bat was silent last night.
2. When Arrieta takes the mound, he does not think he could win - - - he expects to win.
And his team thinks the same thing which is an extremely powerful mental edge, something
that the Blackhawks have had in their championship runs.
3. Arrieta did not even have his best command. He looked like he got tired and hit the wall
in the middle innings. I was questioning why Maddon did not take him out for Rondon in the 9th,
but I guess Arrieta/Maddon wanted to make a statement to the rest of the pitching staff
that old school "give me the ball at first pitch and let me end it" is still alive in the modern game. This reminds me of the White Sox starters during their 2005 World Series run.
4. The Schwarber home run may still be in orbit. He crushed it. With a 3-0 lead, with Arrieta on
the mound, the Pirate fans were silenced for most of the rest of the game. At that point, very few
thought the Cubs would lose the game.
5. Why do the Wild Card winners do so well in the post season? The Wild Card game is played
like a Game 7 so that pressure and experience must have some carry over into the next series.
6. Next up is the litmus test of how well Theo spent $155 million. Lester is supposed to be the
proven post-season ace. He has the champion bulldog determination to carry a team. In the
St. Louis series, he will pitch twice. He is the key to the series.
September 21, 2015
SUNDAY GAME
I put the Sunday loss to the Cardinals on the coaches.
With only one out, sending Rizzo to the plate on a short hit to RF where Heyward came up throwing a strike to Molina at the plate, killed the Cub rally. The Cardinals pitching was on the ropes with control issues. But Maddon said he thought it was the right send because it would have taken a couple more hits to score.
The Cubs have had enough plate discipline to take walks and move the batting order deep into innings. The comeback was quashed with the play at the plate. (Molina was hurt and will have an MRI on his thumb. This may be a blessing for the Cardinals, because some fans think Cruz is now a better catcher-hitter than Molina.)
Still, winning 2 out of 3 in a bean ball, hotly contested series with the divisional leader was a good one for the Cubs. Maddon said afterward that his team now believes that it is as good as St. Louis. This had the feel of playoff baseball.
Ironically, the Cubs and Cardinals have never played against each other in a post season game.
This year seems to heading toward a possible show down if the Cubs can beat the Pirates in the wild card game.
It seemed that 99% of the world believes that Arrieta will start the Pittsburgh game. I thought that too, even after Lester got pushed around early in yesterday's contest. But if Arrieta wins the wild card game, he is lost until Game 3 of the Cardinal NLDS.
If the Cubs paid Lester $155 million for his post-season experience, Lester should be the one to throw the wild card game (on a short leash). That means Arrieta could start in three NLDS games, if necessary (as this year's Giant ace Bumgartner did last year).
The playoff pitching assignments will be the most telling thing Maddon will do all year. And the ramification of the decision will be discussed for decades.
With only one out, sending Rizzo to the plate on a short hit to RF where Heyward came up throwing a strike to Molina at the plate, killed the Cub rally. The Cardinals pitching was on the ropes with control issues. But Maddon said he thought it was the right send because it would have taken a couple more hits to score.
The Cubs have had enough plate discipline to take walks and move the batting order deep into innings. The comeback was quashed with the play at the plate. (Molina was hurt and will have an MRI on his thumb. This may be a blessing for the Cardinals, because some fans think Cruz is now a better catcher-hitter than Molina.)
Still, winning 2 out of 3 in a bean ball, hotly contested series with the divisional leader was a good one for the Cubs. Maddon said afterward that his team now believes that it is as good as St. Louis. This had the feel of playoff baseball.
Ironically, the Cubs and Cardinals have never played against each other in a post season game.
This year seems to heading toward a possible show down if the Cubs can beat the Pirates in the wild card game.
It seemed that 99% of the world believes that Arrieta will start the Pittsburgh game. I thought that too, even after Lester got pushed around early in yesterday's contest. But if Arrieta wins the wild card game, he is lost until Game 3 of the Cardinal NLDS.
If the Cubs paid Lester $155 million for his post-season experience, Lester should be the one to throw the wild card game (on a short leash). That means Arrieta could start in three NLDS games, if necessary (as this year's Giant ace Bumgartner did last year).
The playoff pitching assignments will be the most telling thing Maddon will do all year. And the ramification of the decision will be discussed for decades.
September 8, 2015
June 30, 2015
FIRST TO 50
The Cardinals were the first team to 50 wins.
How did St. Louis reach that milestone so quickly?
Team stats:
Batting average: .265
OPS: .330
Slugging: .404
OPS: .705
HR: 61
RBI: 296
SB: 31
Walks: 232
ERA: 2.61 (1st in MLB)
WHIP: 1.202
Saves: 31 (1st in NL)
Fielding %: .985 (6th in NL)
Hitting WAR: 12.7
Pitching WAR: 14.0
Team WAR: 26.7
Clearly, team pitching has been great so far this season, even with the season ending injury to ace Adam Wainwright. However, Fangraphs ranks the Cards the 3rd best in major league pitching so far this season. Fangraphs also ranks the Cards 5th in MLB in hitting.
How did St. Louis reach that milestone so quickly?
Team stats:
Batting average: .265
OPS: .330
Slugging: .404
OPS: .705
HR: 61
RBI: 296
SB: 31
Walks: 232
ERA: 2.61 (1st in MLB)
WHIP: 1.202
Saves: 31 (1st in NL)
Fielding %: .985 (6th in NL)
Hitting WAR: 12.7
Pitching WAR: 14.0
Team WAR: 26.7
Clearly, team pitching has been great so far this season, even with the season ending injury to ace Adam Wainwright. However, Fangraphs ranks the Cards the 3rd best in major league pitching so far this season. Fangraphs also ranks the Cards 5th in MLB in hitting.
June 16, 2015
COMPUTER FOLLIES
Computers are supposed to be productivity tools to help humans manage information.
So two stories about computers and MLB twist that purpose.
First, the Royals and their fan base is accused of trying to stuff the ballot to get at least 7 Royals in the All-Star game. Since it is fan voting and a simple log in, with an email, the un(der)employed KC metro area seems to pulling all-nighters to beef up their Royals votes. It has gotten so silly that .200 hitting Omar Infante is the leading in votes for starting second baseman.
It would not matter if the All Star game remained an exhibition contest. But since MLB instituted interleague play, fans across the country can now see on a regular basis other league's best players. It used to be confined to one All Star a year plus the World Series. But the real cause of concern is that stupid Bud Selig salvage attempt of making the winner of the All Star game the home team for the World Series. Selig's folly let the air out of the former value of winning actual regular season games (since the best record always had home field advantage).
Second, the Cardinals alleged cyberhack scandal has more serious ramifications to baseball. It involves several federal crimes, felonies, which have potential jail sentences of 1 to 5 years. It involves corporate spying allegations on another team's proprietary team information (statistical analysis, scouting reports and trade emails). If the information was used by the organization or front office (and not as spun by some in the media as a rogue IT employee seeking revenge or a prank against a former boss), then a conspiracy charge could take out much of management and/or its credibility. The new commissioner is then put under the hot seat. How does the unprecedented criminal theft of team information fit under the "best interests of baseball" clause? If gambling on baseball is still the death sentence offense in the baseball charter (see, Pete Rose), then what could the penalties be to the Cardinals if they were found guilty of spying?
The NFL came down hard on the Patriots for the seemingly mild cheat of deflating footballs. But the NFL was mad that the Patriots were flaunting the rules, authority and integrity of the game on multiple occasions. The real concern is whether the FBI investigation, with subpoena power and computer expertise to track computer files and transmissions, will lead to a scandal bigger than the original intrusion in the Astros computer servers.
It is really a lack of common sense. Every MLB team has their own computer data base programs. There are plenty of public resources like Fangraphs that are spitting out Moneyball statistics and analysis. Why the Cardinals or its employees would benefit from an Astro hack is the great unknown folly in this story.
So two stories about computers and MLB twist that purpose.
First, the Royals and their fan base is accused of trying to stuff the ballot to get at least 7 Royals in the All-Star game. Since it is fan voting and a simple log in, with an email, the un(der)employed KC metro area seems to pulling all-nighters to beef up their Royals votes. It has gotten so silly that .200 hitting Omar Infante is the leading in votes for starting second baseman.
It would not matter if the All Star game remained an exhibition contest. But since MLB instituted interleague play, fans across the country can now see on a regular basis other league's best players. It used to be confined to one All Star a year plus the World Series. But the real cause of concern is that stupid Bud Selig salvage attempt of making the winner of the All Star game the home team for the World Series. Selig's folly let the air out of the former value of winning actual regular season games (since the best record always had home field advantage).
Second, the Cardinals alleged cyberhack scandal has more serious ramifications to baseball. It involves several federal crimes, felonies, which have potential jail sentences of 1 to 5 years. It involves corporate spying allegations on another team's proprietary team information (statistical analysis, scouting reports and trade emails). If the information was used by the organization or front office (and not as spun by some in the media as a rogue IT employee seeking revenge or a prank against a former boss), then a conspiracy charge could take out much of management and/or its credibility. The new commissioner is then put under the hot seat. How does the unprecedented criminal theft of team information fit under the "best interests of baseball" clause? If gambling on baseball is still the death sentence offense in the baseball charter (see, Pete Rose), then what could the penalties be to the Cardinals if they were found guilty of spying?
The NFL came down hard on the Patriots for the seemingly mild cheat of deflating footballs. But the NFL was mad that the Patriots were flaunting the rules, authority and integrity of the game on multiple occasions. The real concern is whether the FBI investigation, with subpoena power and computer expertise to track computer files and transmissions, will lead to a scandal bigger than the original intrusion in the Astros computer servers.
It is really a lack of common sense. Every MLB team has their own computer data base programs. There are plenty of public resources like Fangraphs that are spitting out Moneyball statistics and analysis. Why the Cardinals or its employees would benefit from an Astro hack is the great unknown folly in this story.
April 8, 2015
THE DOUBLE LEAD OFF HITTER THEORY
Joe Maddon took a page out of the Tony LaRussa book when Maddon batted Jon Lester No. 8.
Little did Cub fans know how bad Lester is at the plate (0 for life).
Second baseman Tommy LaStella batted 9th.
It was explained after the game that putting LaStella in the 9th spot adds "a second lead off hitter" to the line up.
When LaRussa first used this gimmick, the Cardinals’ scoring ticked up slightly but La Russa got more impact as the seasons wore on, when he switched from No. 9 guys like Eli Marrero in 1998 to more leadoff-type players such as Aaron Miles, Tyler Green and Nick Punto.
In theory, this lineup puts the pitcher the furthest possible distance from the No. 3 hitter in the order (considering both directions), and turns the 3 hitter into a cleanup man once the lineup turns over and the 2 hitter into a 3 hitter.
“It’s not your daddy’s 2 hole,” says Maddon, who is intrigued by Soler’s power and pitch selection in that sequence. However, it is still to be seen if Soler has the plate discipline to be a number two hitter. He has tremendous power. Whether he can consistently change his approach from home run torque swing to shortened opposite field swing is going to take time to tell.
“Sometimes the double switch becomes a problem because it’s one hitter sooner, but overall [it's comparable],” La Russa said, adding that communication is key – especially for the hitters who now get stuck behind pitchers. “You always have to explain to the team why you’re doing it. And Joe is very articulate, very knowledgeable.”
Maddon plans to use La Stella, Arismendy Alcantara and possibly Chris Coghlan at No. 9, and he already has met with La Stella and Alcanatara to explain the thinking.
“You have to deliver the correct message,” Maddon said. “I told them exactly why we’re doing it. This is not a slight on your hitting whatsoever. Actually, for me, you’re going to get better pitches by hitting in this sport, so I’m really going to take advantage of your abilities by hitting you here.
“There’s a lot of stigma of playing the fat kid in right field and hitting your worst hitter ninth that has to be overcome. You want to break it down. It deserves explanation.”
Maddon is quick to say: “I’m not here to say I know everything by any stretch of the imagination.”
In the Cubs pitching staff, Travis Wood is probably the best hitter (having hit two home runs this spring). He would probably be better slotted in the 7th slot, dropping weaker hitters like LaStella, Coghlan or Olt to the bottom.
Traditionally, the pitcher batting 9th was used to create "productive" outs. Pitchers were supposed to learn the art of bunting to move a player to second base, giving a runner in scoring position for your "best" contact hitters at the top of the order. A runner at second with one out with the lead off hitter up means more pressure on the pitcher and his defense. Even with two outs and a runner at second, the lead off hitter should be trained to take pitches to get a walk or slap hit a single since the runner will be off on contact and probably could score. So when the reasoning is that batting pitchers in the 8th spot will create "more" scoring opportunities, that is not necessarily the case.
With the Cubs, if you keep the pitcher in the 9th slot, and the catcher batting 8th, it gives Maddon more opportunities to double switch or flip those batting orders, maximizing the time before a pitcher would hit again.
Each team's lineup has its strengths and weaknesses. A manager needs to understand those strengths and weaknesses in order to give each player the best opportunity to succeed at the plate (i.e. get on base or drive in runs).
In descending order of value as a lead off hitter: Fowler, LaStella, Coghlan.
High priority strike out or weak hitters: Olt, pitchers, Ross, Castillo, Alcantara, Rizzo, Soler.
One does not want to concentrate one type of negative hitter in lineup blocks.
Maddon also said he would probably not use Pitcher in No. 8 spot if he felt the starter was going to go long into the game. Lester was on a pitch count on Opening Night and was destined to pitch only 6 innings or less (he went 4 2/3).
The knock on using gimmick lineups is that it changes the daily hitting card. Many players believe in habit and set structure as they prepare for a game. Not knowing whether you will be hitting No. 2, No. 7 or No. 9 on any given day disrupts a player's preparation (since each slot in the order infers a different batting style or purpose in game situations).
I was never a fan of Lou Piniella's daily tinkering of his lineup card. But some modern managers just think it is about the only tangible thing they do during a game, so they have to mix things up.
Little did Cub fans know how bad Lester is at the plate (0 for life).
Second baseman Tommy LaStella batted 9th.
It was explained after the game that putting LaStella in the 9th spot adds "a second lead off hitter" to the line up.
When LaRussa first used this gimmick, the Cardinals’ scoring ticked up slightly but La Russa got more impact as the seasons wore on, when he switched from No. 9 guys like Eli Marrero in 1998 to more leadoff-type players such as Aaron Miles, Tyler Green and Nick Punto.
In theory, this lineup puts the pitcher the furthest possible distance from the No. 3 hitter in the order (considering both directions), and turns the 3 hitter into a cleanup man once the lineup turns over and the 2 hitter into a 3 hitter.
“It’s not your daddy’s 2 hole,” says Maddon, who is intrigued by Soler’s power and pitch selection in that sequence. However, it is still to be seen if Soler has the plate discipline to be a number two hitter. He has tremendous power. Whether he can consistently change his approach from home run torque swing to shortened opposite field swing is going to take time to tell.
“Sometimes the double switch becomes a problem because it’s one hitter sooner, but overall [it's comparable],” La Russa said, adding that communication is key – especially for the hitters who now get stuck behind pitchers. “You always have to explain to the team why you’re doing it. And Joe is very articulate, very knowledgeable.”
Maddon plans to use La Stella, Arismendy Alcantara and possibly Chris Coghlan at No. 9, and he already has met with La Stella and Alcanatara to explain the thinking.
“You have to deliver the correct message,” Maddon said. “I told them exactly why we’re doing it. This is not a slight on your hitting whatsoever. Actually, for me, you’re going to get better pitches by hitting in this sport, so I’m really going to take advantage of your abilities by hitting you here.
“There’s a lot of stigma of playing the fat kid in right field and hitting your worst hitter ninth that has to be overcome. You want to break it down. It deserves explanation.”
Maddon is quick to say: “I’m not here to say I know everything by any stretch of the imagination.”
In the Cubs pitching staff, Travis Wood is probably the best hitter (having hit two home runs this spring). He would probably be better slotted in the 7th slot, dropping weaker hitters like LaStella, Coghlan or Olt to the bottom.
Traditionally, the pitcher batting 9th was used to create "productive" outs. Pitchers were supposed to learn the art of bunting to move a player to second base, giving a runner in scoring position for your "best" contact hitters at the top of the order. A runner at second with one out with the lead off hitter up means more pressure on the pitcher and his defense. Even with two outs and a runner at second, the lead off hitter should be trained to take pitches to get a walk or slap hit a single since the runner will be off on contact and probably could score. So when the reasoning is that batting pitchers in the 8th spot will create "more" scoring opportunities, that is not necessarily the case.
With the Cubs, if you keep the pitcher in the 9th slot, and the catcher batting 8th, it gives Maddon more opportunities to double switch or flip those batting orders, maximizing the time before a pitcher would hit again.
Each team's lineup has its strengths and weaknesses. A manager needs to understand those strengths and weaknesses in order to give each player the best opportunity to succeed at the plate (i.e. get on base or drive in runs).
In descending order of value as a lead off hitter: Fowler, LaStella, Coghlan.
High priority strike out or weak hitters: Olt, pitchers, Ross, Castillo, Alcantara, Rizzo, Soler.
One does not want to concentrate one type of negative hitter in lineup blocks.
Maddon also said he would probably not use Pitcher in No. 8 spot if he felt the starter was going to go long into the game. Lester was on a pitch count on Opening Night and was destined to pitch only 6 innings or less (he went 4 2/3).
The knock on using gimmick lineups is that it changes the daily hitting card. Many players believe in habit and set structure as they prepare for a game. Not knowing whether you will be hitting No. 2, No. 7 or No. 9 on any given day disrupts a player's preparation (since each slot in the order infers a different batting style or purpose in game situations).
I was never a fan of Lou Piniella's daily tinkering of his lineup card. But some modern managers just think it is about the only tangible thing they do during a game, so they have to mix things up.
December 27, 2014
NL WINTER OF DISCONTENT
The easy road to the playoffs is winning your division.
How have the NL Central teams fared so far this off season?
CUBS:
In: Jon Lester, David Ross, Jason Motte, Jason Hammel, Miguel Montero, Tommy La Stella
Out: Justin Ruggiano, Carlos Villanueva, a bunch of prospects
CARDINALS
In: Mark Reynolds, Matt Belisle, Jason Heyward, Jordan Walden, Dean Anna
Out: Daniel Descalso, Shelby Miller, Justin Masterson, A.J. Pierzynski, Jason Motte, Mark Ellis, Pat Neshek
BREWERS:
In: Adam Lind, Juan Centeno, Luis Jimenez
Out: Marco Estrada, Rickie Weeks, Francisco Rodriguez, Tom Gorzelanny, Zach Duke, Mark Reynolds, Lyle Overbay
PIRATES
In: Corey Hart, Radhames Liz, Sean Rodriguez, Antonio Bastardo, Pedro Florimon, Francisco Cervelli, Jake Elmore, Jung-Ho Kang
Out: Gaby Sanchez, Ike Davis, Justin Wilson, Russell Martin, Edinson Volquez, Clint Barmes
REDS:
In: Anthony DeSclafani, Chad Wallach, Eugenio Saurez, Jonathon Crawford, Ramon Cabrera, Neftali Soto, Matt Magill, Jose Flores
Out: Mat Latos, Alfredo Simon, Chris Heisey
At first glance, it appears the REDS are in complete demolition, tear-down mode. By trading away two starters from the deepest rotation in the division (because they would be free agents at the end of 2015) is a White Flag move before the season starts. Reds fans cannot be happy, even though the team has tried to stock pile young arms. Cincinnati appears to be a .500 club at best.
The BREWERS have been less active than the Reds, picking up one potential starter in Lind (6 HR, 40 RBI in 96 games). The Brew lost a lot of pitching depth so far this off season, so the team does appear to be falling below .500.
The CARDINALS lost a lot of pitching by trade and free agency, but the big exchange was to get Heywood to bolster a good line up of hitters. Reynolds appears to be a bench signing (insurance) in case Adams eats his way off first base. St. Louis will have to count on their young pitching pipeline to contend in 2015.
The PIRATES lost two key components: Volquez and Martin. But the addition of slick fielding Korean SS Kang is an upgrade, and upgrading the bullpen may help the starting staff. If Hart can get back to his 2012 season (30 HR, 89 RBI, .270 BA) then the Pirates will again be near the top of the division.
The CUBS player departures are insignificant in the grand scheme of things. Lester may be the best starter in the division, but the other additions do not help the team which has real trouble scoring runs. There is a concern that a Montero-Ross catching tandem is a down grade from a healthy Castillo. The Cubs may still be a sub .500 team due to the prospects trying to become major league professionals.
Overall, the NL Central has not been as active as one may have thought this winter.
How have the NL Central teams fared so far this off season?
CUBS:
In: Jon Lester, David Ross, Jason Motte, Jason Hammel, Miguel Montero, Tommy La Stella
Out: Justin Ruggiano, Carlos Villanueva, a bunch of prospects
CARDINALS
In: Mark Reynolds, Matt Belisle, Jason Heyward, Jordan Walden, Dean Anna
Out: Daniel Descalso, Shelby Miller, Justin Masterson, A.J. Pierzynski, Jason Motte, Mark Ellis, Pat Neshek
BREWERS:
In: Adam Lind, Juan Centeno, Luis Jimenez
Out: Marco Estrada, Rickie Weeks, Francisco Rodriguez, Tom Gorzelanny, Zach Duke, Mark Reynolds, Lyle Overbay
PIRATES
In: Corey Hart, Radhames Liz, Sean Rodriguez, Antonio Bastardo, Pedro Florimon, Francisco Cervelli, Jake Elmore, Jung-Ho Kang
Out: Gaby Sanchez, Ike Davis, Justin Wilson, Russell Martin, Edinson Volquez, Clint Barmes
REDS:
In: Anthony DeSclafani, Chad Wallach, Eugenio Saurez, Jonathon Crawford, Ramon Cabrera, Neftali Soto, Matt Magill, Jose Flores
Out: Mat Latos, Alfredo Simon, Chris Heisey
At first glance, it appears the REDS are in complete demolition, tear-down mode. By trading away two starters from the deepest rotation in the division (because they would be free agents at the end of 2015) is a White Flag move before the season starts. Reds fans cannot be happy, even though the team has tried to stock pile young arms. Cincinnati appears to be a .500 club at best.
The BREWERS have been less active than the Reds, picking up one potential starter in Lind (6 HR, 40 RBI in 96 games). The Brew lost a lot of pitching depth so far this off season, so the team does appear to be falling below .500.
The CARDINALS lost a lot of pitching by trade and free agency, but the big exchange was to get Heywood to bolster a good line up of hitters. Reynolds appears to be a bench signing (insurance) in case Adams eats his way off first base. St. Louis will have to count on their young pitching pipeline to contend in 2015.
The PIRATES lost two key components: Volquez and Martin. But the addition of slick fielding Korean SS Kang is an upgrade, and upgrading the bullpen may help the starting staff. If Hart can get back to his 2012 season (30 HR, 89 RBI, .270 BA) then the Pirates will again be near the top of the division.
The CUBS player departures are insignificant in the grand scheme of things. Lester may be the best starter in the division, but the other additions do not help the team which has real trouble scoring runs. There is a concern that a Montero-Ross catching tandem is a down grade from a healthy Castillo. The Cubs may still be a sub .500 team due to the prospects trying to become major league professionals.
Overall, the NL Central has not been as active as one may have thought this winter.
December 16, 2014
BACK TO THE SAME BUSINESS
After the happy Jon Lester press conference, the Cubs were back to their old tricks of acquiring damaged pitchers with the hopes of miracle rebirths.
The Cubs have signed former Cardinal pitcher Jason Motte to a one year, $4.5 million (with additional incentives). Motte, a 32-year-old righty had a nice run with the Cardinals as one of the game’s better back-end relievers. Over 2010-12, he tossed 192 1/3 innings of 2.43 ERA ball with 9.5 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9. He moved into the team’s closer role in 2012, locking down a league-leading 42 games.
The Cubs have signed former Cardinal pitcher Jason Motte to a one year, $4.5 million (with additional incentives). Motte, a 32-year-old righty had a nice run with the Cardinals as one of the game’s better back-end relievers. Over 2010-12, he tossed 192 1/3 innings of 2.43 ERA ball with 9.5 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9. He moved into the team’s closer role in 2012, locking down a league-leading 42 games.
But Motte was forced to undergo Tommy John
surgery. A long recovery period kept him out until the 2014 season, when
he also missed time with a lower back issue. All said, Motte only
appeared for 25 innings last year, struggling to a 4.68 ERA with 6.1 K/9
and 3.2 BB/9.
MLBTR notes that ERA estimators were down on Motte’s work last season: FIP (6.49), xFIP (4.58), and SIERA (4.25) all saw Motte as a below-average contributor. He was hurt significantly by the long ball, giving up a 20.0% HR/FB rate and a whopping 2.52 HR/9 that ranked second to worst in all of baseball among relievers who threw at least 20 frames.
It seems like an expensive insurance policy if Hector Rondon fails in the closer role in 2015.
The Cub bullpen was the real bright spot last year with Rondon, Strop, Ramirez, Schlitter, Parker and Grimm. But since Ricketts has opened the money tap, the baseball ops guys are willing to spend.
MLBTR notes that ERA estimators were down on Motte’s work last season: FIP (6.49), xFIP (4.58), and SIERA (4.25) all saw Motte as a below-average contributor. He was hurt significantly by the long ball, giving up a 20.0% HR/FB rate and a whopping 2.52 HR/9 that ranked second to worst in all of baseball among relievers who threw at least 20 frames.
It seems like an expensive insurance policy if Hector Rondon fails in the closer role in 2015.
The Cub bullpen was the real bright spot last year with Rondon, Strop, Ramirez, Schlitter, Parker and Grimm. But since Ricketts has opened the money tap, the baseball ops guys are willing to spend.
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